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Ronde van Nederland Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 11-11-2023 20:26
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Welcome to the Netherlands for its eponymous tour. In the five year history of the race the sprinters are 5 for 5 in winning it. All the top sprinters of the last few years have their name on the winner list, Demare twice and Kennaugh, Gaviria, Degenkolb and Coquard once each.
Despite the sprinter domination of the winners list it is not a sprint-fest like Qatar. Both the first two stages are flat but with some hills while the third stage is rated hilly. So far, the top sprinters have always managed to survive that stage with enough to take the race win. The best non-sprinter result (other than by punchy sprinters like Demare and Van Stayen) was by Tejay Van Garderen who finished 3rd in 2018. More recently Sagan finished 5th two years ago and 6th last year.
First the sprinters, the race features a packed startlist with many of the top sprinters in the division including three former winners in Coquard, Gaviria and Kennaugh. Listed below are the top 17, there are many more sprinters in the race.
| Rider | FL | HI | SP | AC | RS | ST |  Coquard | 73 | 67 | 84 | 83 | 74 | 71 |  Gaviria | 76 | 72 | 83 | 84 | 76 | 74 |  Ewan | 75 | 71 | 83 | 81 | 71 | 73 |  Grosu | 73 | 73 | 83 | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Ahlstrand | 73 | 66 | 82 | 81 | 72 | 73 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 76 | 82 | 79 | 71 | 73 |  Philipsen | 74 | 69 | 81 | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Kanter | 75 | 67 | 81 | 80 | 73 | 75 | | Farantakis | 74 | 66 | 81 | 80 | 72 | 75 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 64 | 81 | 79 | 71 | 75 |  Kragh Andersen | 77 | 64 | 81 | 77 | 74 | 70 |  Cullaigh | 74 | 67 | 80 | 81 | 70 | 73 |  Jakobsen | 74 | 67 | 80 | 80 | 73 | 75 |  Kemboi | 78 | 64 | 80 | 80 | 77 | 74 |  Groves | 75 | 72 | 80 | 79 | 73 | 75 |  Hsu | 75 | 67 | 80 | 79 | 70 | 75 | | Kennaugh | 75 | 63 | 80 | 78 | 68 | 71 |
Coquard returns to defend his title, he has not been at his best so far so he will hope this is the race that turns it around. Gaviria, Ewan, and Grosu aren’t quite as fast as the Frenchman but all are better in the hills. Gaviria and Ewan are also strong on the flats while Gaviria is also the toughest rider among the top favorites. Groves is also solid in the hills while Van der Lijke is closest to the punchy sprinter mold.
The rest of the sprinters are fairly similar and their performance will depend on who finds the best form.
The punchy riders trying to end the sprinter dominance include:
| Rider | FL | HI | SP | AC | RS | ST | | De Bie | 73 | 84 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 77 |  Lopez | 70 | 84 | 66 | 78 | 74 | 76 |  Lutsenko | 69 | 83 | 72 | 81 | 73 | 76 | | Kinoshita | 73 | 83 | 68 | 77 | 77 | 80 | | Skujins | 70 | 83 | 68 | 76 | 77 | 80 |  Mohoric | 72 | 83 | 67 | 77 | 72 | 78 | | Gidich | 72 | 83 | 62 | 75 | 77 | 78 | | McCarthy | 70 | 82 | 65 | 74 | 75 | 80 | | Yates | 74 | 81 | 77 | 80 | 70 | 77 | | Koretzky | 72 | 80 | 70 | 77 | 68 | 75 |
Lopez is an unexpected name here, it isn’t clear if his ability on the longer climbs will matter but he is one of the strongest puncheurs. De Bie is the other top hilly rider, his speed at the finish could help him. Lutsenko and Koretzky are also good finishers but the rider most likely to feature in the sprint finishes is Yates.
A few riders aren’t quite good enough sprinters or puncheurs to make the list above but have good combined skills If any of them can grab some sprint bonuses and then survive the hilly stage they could end up in a high GC position.  Ackermann, riding for wildcard team Zwift, is probably the most likely to impact the race among this group.
| Rider | FL | HI | SP | AC | RS | ST | | Gerts | 77 | 78 | 72 | 70 | 80 | 76 | | Ackermann | 72 | 77 | 77 | 80 | 71 | 75 | | Madouas | 74 | 77 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 76 | | Quita | 74 | 77 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 75 | | Cerny | 71 | 76 | 75 | 79 | 67 | 75 | | Alaphilippe | 72 | 73 | 77 | 77 | 69 | 74 | | Hofstetter | 74 | 70 | 77 | 78 | 71 | 71 | | Paez | 73 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 70 | 74 |
The race features the largest possible start list with 24 teams all sending a full complement of 8 riders. DuckDuckGo is the other wildcard along with Zwift.
Startlist
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 11-11-2023 20:45
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Tour de France Champion
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Can't expect anything here with every PT sprinter obviously in attendance. Pray for a favorable lottery result.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 11-11-2023 20:48
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Fully expecting that this ends with Kemboi being dropped from a good GC position on Stage 3, with De Bie fruitlessly attacking and ending up outside the top 20. But the journey to get there should be fun! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 11-11-2023 22:43
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Grand Tour Champion
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The Ahlstrand - Kinoshita worked well in MSR for the latter. This race hopefully both will get to shine.
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| SotD |
Posted on 12-11-2023 07:52
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World Champion
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Well under normal circumstances this would be a key race with Coquard, Farantakis and Koretzky all present. But with the history of the AI mechanics I suspect two catastrophic hit’n’miss stages from Coquard, and then - who knows. Maybe stage 3 Can be won as it’s a downhill hilly Stage. Not from Koretzky though - but Coquard of course…
But a win GC race with 3 guys in top 25 is definately not realistic anymore. Could be another major fuck up like Qatar…
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Posted on 29-09-2024 00:30
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-11-2023 10:38
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At the end of planning i had 9 RDs left for Lopez. I decided to go with Tasmania + Ukraine + Nederlands. The first two races went quite badly. Lets hope i can get at least one good one out of that bunch...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 12-11-2023 11:46
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Jakobsen here with the full support of my entire sprinting cast. But up against every other sprinter in the division. Going to be challenging to get a result but I'm hopeful that Jakobsen can overperform his stats and come away with something.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 12-11-2023 12:19
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On paper we are always covered here for both scenarios with Grosu and Gerts. In reality, we almost always fail. Curious to see what happens this year.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 12-11-2023 14:09
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Classics Specialist
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We've never really managed to do well in this race. Hope we can try to get in some breaks and try to create something.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 12-11-2023 14:44
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Looking forward to following this race and seeing how the final stage will pan out in terms of GC aspirations for the puncheurs here.
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| SotD |
Posted on 12-11-2023 20:30
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World Champion
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8th is one of the best sprint results from Coquard this season, so I guess I have to be “happy”.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 12-11-2023 20:53
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Directeur Sportif
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Fernando missing his peak leadout 
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-11-2023 21:02
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Yeah, very poorly timed by AKA, but that's how it goes sometimes. At least he tried.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 12-11-2023 21:50
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Ahlstrand did his best. One of his better sprints so far
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| redordead |
Posted on 13-11-2023 06:38
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Well that was fun 
I knew the field would be stacked here with both sprinters and puncheurs, so I decided to save Enger for some other races. Obviously I can't know if he would've performed here, but the idea to go for breakaways was at least somewhat good. Stojnic with a real nice day to grab the KOM. It's always awesome to see one of the Balkan talents make an impact while still unmaxed 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 13-11-2023 07:23
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World Champion
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SotD wrote:
8th is one of the best sprint results from Coquard this season, so I guess I have to be “happy”.
Well, it you don't count Van der Lijke as one, he was best of the top guns so 
Marijn Van Den Berg really seems to enjoy going into breakaways so far. Didn't expect Julius to join one too though.
As for the rest of the team, yep, we're going down.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 13-11-2023 11:42
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World Champion
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Kanter looked like he could've challenged for a really good result if there had just been a tiny gap in the line of sprinters ahead of him, real bummer.
I hope he gets some bonus seconds tomorrow in case stage 3 is not selective, otherwise I'd love to see Madouas use his versatility well there.
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| ember |
Posted on 13-11-2023 16:02
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Very encouraging to see Wisniowski claim third and a good amount of bonus seconds! Promising regarding our overall ambitions. Had hopes for the GC here pre-race, bringing Kragh, Wisniowski and Mohoric here.
Away on holiday for the next three weeks, so will only be able to check from time to time. Hopefully I will be able to comment as well, if not, I will catch up the first weekend in December. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 13-11-2023 16:26
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Classics Specialist
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Nice to see Würtz in the break. Not a lot of end result in it, but hopefully it means that he will continue to race aggressively in the race.
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| SotD |
Posted on 13-11-2023 22:14
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Was to be expected. Coquard still inside a decent shot of a solid GC of that final Stage turns out in favor of the sprinters with that downhill finish.
Nice to see Evangelos snatch a point. Sad to see the entire ISA team leaving their leader alone avoiding all depth scoring.
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