I came up with the simple formula a while ago and it doesn't seem to do worse than more complex formulas. WAVG6 is simply calculated by weighing the AVGs of the top 6 riders per team (6x, 5x,4x, 3x, 2x, 1x /21). (R 20 = WAVG 20, Rel. = Relegated)
PR 20
R 20
1
2
3
4
5
6
WAVG
1
9
9
Guinness
78.3
77.8
77.4
77.3
76.4
76.0
77.58
2
New
-
La Vie Claire
80.2
78.7
77.3
74.9
73.1
73.0
77.51
3
18
3
Shell
78.2
77.8
77.3
77.1
76.1
75.0
77.42
4
New
-
BNZ
78.6
78.3
77.1
75.5
75.3
74.9
77.31
5
14
10
Millenium
78.4
77.4
76.9
76.8
76.4
74.7
77.28
6
Rel.
-
Peugeot
78.9
76.7
76.6
76.6
76.4
76.2
77.24
7
Rel.
-
Santos
77.9
77.2
76.9
76.9
76.5
76.4
77.20
8
15
18
Latvijas
77.9
77.2
76.9
76.4
76.3
76.3
77.10
9
New
-
Ziggo
78.7
76.9
76.4
76.3
76.2
74.8
77.07
10
12
16
Tierra
77.6
77.5
76.7
76.5
76.4
75.8
77.05
11
8
13
VisitUkraine
77.3
77.2
77.0
77.0
76.0
75.7
76.98
12
6
12
Pedal Africa
77.6
77.2
76.8
76.5
75.5
75.5
76.90
13
New
-
Euskaltel
77.5
77.2
76.8
76.3
74.6
74.5
76.70
14
10
15
EF x Palace
77.0
76.5
76.5
76.4
76.3
75.7
76.57
15
7
6
Magnum
77.5
76.4
76.2
76.1
75.3
75.0
76.46
16
17
19
ICBC
76.7
76.4
76.4
75.7
75.6
75.5
76.27
17
20
20
Cadejo
77.4
76.1
75.8
75.6
75.4
75.2
76.23
18
New
-
DFK
76.6
76.0
75.9
75.9
75.9
75.6
76.11
19
Rel.
-
Vegeta
76.5
76.3
76.0
75.4
75.3
74.9
76.01
20
New
-
Proximus
76.0
76.0
75.7
75.7
75.2
75.1
75.78
This year Guinness comes out top, though I feel their top 6 is a bit TT heavy to justify it. But certainly a much better squad than last season, when WAVG only rated them 9th. They are followed by newcomer La Vie Claire, their top star is Durbridge and TT specialists generally have a tough time scoring well, but he's the best in the world. Like last season Shell is predicted in 3rd place and I'm sure they'll disappoint us yet again, WAVG just doesn't seem to work for this team.
In 4th the next newcomer, BNZ, who do have 4 very good riders. They are somewhat lucky that WAVG ignores most of the squad, they have some of the weakest domestiques around. Behind them are Millenium, who've developed well since last year. The two relegated teams Peugeot and Santos don't find themselves in the first row when it comes to promotion candidates.
Latvijas also improved nicely since last season. Ziggo are rated 9th, mostly thanks to Nerz. Tierra del Fuego and VisitUkraine are also stronger than last season. In fact, the whole CT is once again stronger than last season. Pedal Africa proves this, their WAVG rose by 0.5 but they remain in 12th. Newcomer Euskaltel starts in 13th. EF have made a smaller jump than most teams while Magnum took a plunge due to a complete change in tactics, starting over with a team of young talents.
ICBC remain more or less unchanged, Cadejo have improved, but their strict regional focus prohibits a larger jump. At the bottom we find the last two newcomers as well as, shockingly, a team which was just relegated from the World Tour, Vegeta.
Mind you, some teams have a lot more depth than others and WAVG totally ignores it. La Vie Claire is ranked 2nd despite having only 4 riders with an AVG over 74.0, Vegeta has 14, DFK even 16. That is bound to make a difference.
Generally, I have very little confidence in my formula this year. The top 3 all look weaker to me than predicted and many of the lower ranked teams have a nice balance and/or depth. What mostly stands out is that the overall quality is very high: Back in 2018 my team promoted with a WAVG of 76.27 (5th highest that year), now ICBC is only 16th with the same WAVG.
Quality has definitely gone up, my team is a better version of the one from two seasons ago and is rated 7th here! To be honest not promoting would suit us very well
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Nothing wrong with bad domestiques aha. As long as the key riders score well which they have for me in the first season of ICL when I played last time. Should be interesting to see what happens this time around!
Good to see that we improved by 6 spots in the prediction - nota bene with the same riders as last year, meaning that they developed quite well
Also, like Vegeta, we've got 14 riders >= 74.0 - let's see if depth actually pays off, or if top-heaviness is key to finish high up.
The drawback of good depth, however, is a lack of RDs, so we can't send full squads to many CT races. That might have a negative impact on our scoring potential.
Promotion might be at stake if everything goes really well, but is not really needed - I like the CT manager's freedom of picking any race I want to participate in, without having a big mandatory calendar
I think Liberty was lucky last season with Herrada scoring well around, in particular the GTs covered by dominox, and VDP was still in U25 (a scoring dimension completely ignored by any formula). It will be tougher to get to podium this season, especially as the GTs will not be the pointsfeast for GT riders that they have been last year(... perhaps the GTs that I selected are even a bit too easy and could have used 1-2 more MTFs, we will see it in dominox' coverage and the eventual points distribution)
Definitely see Grupo Argos on top again too, their depth is expensive + they have a great talent roster, so the long term development is quite interesting here. Italo had some great investments in Konrad. Herklotz training makes him insane.
Last season relegation was definitely easier to predict and I shy away from that anyway, sadly I think a couple of bad races could catapult any team into a bad position which they dont deserve to be in.
CT predictions I am not sure off. I think that teams like Trans, VisitUkraine etc have shown in the past that many solid riders can score massively and retrieve points from any race even if they are not top tier leaders, so I favor any teams with many strong riders in CT over any big shot leader focused teams. Excited to see especially how Santos adapts to the return to CT, but also how the improvements & changes of last season's new joiners show themselves.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
DaveTwoBob has amended his model that analyses the ICL WT, CT and U23 teams that came up with his dodgy predictions last year. Not satisfied with a flawed model using real stats, this year DaveTwoBob has invented his own stat called Stage Race (SR) to try reflect the higher scoring potential of stage racers. Accordingly the influence of Mountain stat has been reduced. Another addition is a mechanism to reduce a team’s score if the same rider tops more than one category, this is designed to reflect the impact of limited race days. This applies better to WT and will slightly distort results in CT and mess up U23 big time. To improve the influence of depth I have doubled the contribution of the rider score.
REVISED MODEL
I came down with Covid so these changes are a bit later than hoped. After applying the training updates Liberty Seguros went from 1st to 11th! This exposed a serious flaw in the ranking calculation that needed a fix and explained some of the outlier results from last season. After fixing the ranking calculation I then had to rebalance the rank v rider scores. The final predictions are closer to last year’s results which gives me some hope this model is better but Liberty Seguros still look undervalued.
Any similarity between these predictions and real life are purely coincidental
WORLD TOUR PREDICTIONS LAST SEASON
Info courtesy of Ripley
The model does not account for depth well and that’s the big strength of Grupo Argos – Quala. A couple of predictions were 10 out, I hope I can narrow that down a bit this year.
Rank
WT Pts
D2B
Diff
1
10814
Grupo Argos - Quala
5
-4
2
8646
Liberty Seguros
6
-4
3
7857
Team BP
9
-6
4
7481
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
1
3
5
6915
Suntory Lucozade Sport
4
1
6
6785
Sevilla Cycling Team
16
-10
7
6732
Italo
3
4
8
6518
KBC Godiva
8
0
9
6383
Baku Synergy Plus
7
2
10
5948
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
14
-4
11
5762
Alitalia
10
1
12
5728
Ceramica Panaria
2
10
13
5652
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
12
1
14
5466
Deutsche Bahn
13
1
15
4654
Credit Suisse
15
0
16
4423
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
11
5
17
2944
Santos Euskadi
17
0
18
1423
Vegeta Cycling Team
18
0
WORLD TOUR
The WT division looks very close with the top 10 teams within 9% of the leading score (and the margin for error in this model is almost certainly higher than that!)
Significant training lifts Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak into top place being best in Mountain, Hills and Stage Racing. In the fight for the win are Grupo Argos – Quala, Allianz - BMW Cycling Team, Team BP and pre training favourites Liberty Seguros. After that we have 5 teams competing for the podium places. The model has Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor, Trans Looney Tunes, Air Algérie - Navibulgar and CCC Sprandi Polkowice fighting to stay in the WT.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
Pos
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
%
1
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
1
1
13
5
17
1
0%
2
Grupo Argos - Quala
4
4
2
18
13
3
2%
3
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
3
4
17
11
3
4
3%
4
Team BP
6
7
3
10
5
7
3%
5
Liberty Seguros
2
2
7
17
18
2
5%
6
Baku Synergy +
8
8
1
9
8
8
6%
7
Italo
8
8
8
2
11
11
6%
8
Renault Classic
4
6
10
5
15
6
7%
9
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
13
12
14
1
7
12
9%
10
Alitalia
10
14
3
14
3
9
9%
11
Deutsche Bahn
14
11
6
8
11
10
12%
12
Credit Suisse
12
3
12
15
13
14
16%
13
Brugse Zot - Trek
11
18
8
4
8
13
16%
14
Bosch Cycling Team
7
8
11
13
16
5
18%
15
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
16
16
3
12
8
18
20%
16
Trans Looney Tunes
15
16
18
7
2
15
20%
17
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
18
14
15
2
6
16
20%
18
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
16
13
15
16
1
17
25%
WT Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
82
81
77
79
76
85.7
Grupo Argos - Quala
81
79
80
73
80
84.5
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
81
80
75
76
81
84.7
Team BP
81
79
80
78
80
85.3
Liberty Seguros
82
80
78
74
76
86.1
Baku Synergy +
79
78
80
78
80
84.3
Italo
79
79
79
80
79
83.2
Renault Classic
82
81
78
79
78
85.8
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
78
78
76
81
81
82.6
Alitalia
79
77
79
75
81
82.9
Deutsche Bahn
79
79
79
79
80
83.5
Credit Suisse
79
82
78
75
78
82.4
Brugse Zot - Trek
79
77
79
79
80
82.5
Bosch Cycling Team
81
79
79
76
76
85.9
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
77
77
80
78
78
80.9
Trans Looney Tunes
78
77
75
79
81
82.1
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
76
77
76
81
81
81.4
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
77
79
76
74
80
81.1
WT Team Top Rider per Terrain
No Team managed 6 different riders per Terrain. Adding Stage Race has squeezed the table a bit, hope you can still read it.
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
Diego Ulissi
Diego Ulissi
Jonathan Castroviejo
Florian Senechal
Marcel Kittel
Diego Ulissi
Alitalia
Adam Yates
Adam Yates
Tobias Ludvigsson
Sean De Bie
Arnaud Demare
Tobias Ludvigsson
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
Warren Barguil
Warren Barguil
Thibaut Pinot
Gebremariam Alemayo
Bryan Coquard
Warren Barguil
Baku Synergy +
Nairo Quintana
Nairo Quintana
Tom Dumoulin
Daniel Oss
Giacomo Nizzolo
Nairo Quintana
Bosch Cycling Team
Silvio Herklotz
Silvio Herklotz
Silvio Herklotz
Harrison Adams
Fabian Schnaidt
Silvio Herklotz
Brugse Zot - Trek
Charles Engeldinger
Charles Engeldinger
Taylor Phinney
Taylor Phinney
Andrew Fenn
Charles Engeldinger
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
Nikita Novikov
Patryk Komisarek
Kamil Gradek
Patryk Komisarek
Patryk Komisarek
Nikita Novikov
Credit Suisse
Davide Villella
Davide Villella
Bob Jungels
Salvatore Puccio
Fabio Silvestre
Davide Villella
Deutsche Bahn
Alberto Contador
Simon Yates
Rasmus Quaade
Sep Vanmarcke
Andrea Guardini
Alberto Contador
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
Juan Pizarro
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Mathias Krigbaum
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Danny Van Poppel
Juan Pizarro
Grupo Argos - Quala
Jan Polanc
Jan Polanc
Anton Vorobyev
Anton Vorobyev
Julian Alaphilippe
Jan Polanc
Italo
Vincenzo Nibali
Alexey Lutsenko
Miguel Martínez
Markos Pintzopoulos
Fulvio Spagnoli
Vincenzo Nibali
Liberty Seguros
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Willem Hofland
Mikel María López Gallego
Jesús Herrada
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
Thomas Nybo Riis
Tom-Jelte Slagter
Fredrik Ludvigsson
John Degenkolb
John Degenkolb
Felix Großschartner
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
Fabio Aru
Michał Kwiatkowski
Michał Kwiatkowski
Tom Van Asbroeck
Tom Van Asbroeck
Fabio Aru
Renault Classic
Romain Bardet
Romain Bardet
Michael Hepburn
Juris Eisaks
Mads Pedersen
Romain Bardet
Team BP
Rafal Majka
Rafal Majka
Campbell Flakemore
Peter Sagan
Leigh Howard
Rafal Majka
Trans Looney Tunes
Pieter Serry
Pieter Serry
Geraint Thomas
Alexander Kristoff
Nacer Bouhanni
Pieter Serry
METHODOLOGY
The methodology uses a combination of the absolute quality of the top 3 riders on each terrain plus the relative ranking of each key stat to generate a total team score.
The relative Terrain weightings were calculated from the ICL19 points earned by riders based on their highest primary stat. This year I have reduced Mountain, Hill & TT influence and introduced a Stage Race stat which has the highest influence.
1. Select the top 3 riders in each team over 6 stats MO, HIL, TT, COB, SP and SR.
2. For each one of the Primary Stats
3. Take off a base stat to accentuate the difference between riders, these are 75 for WT, 72 for CT and 64 for U23.
4. Apply factors of 7,4 and 3 to the stats minus base for the top 3 riders and sum the results to get a Rider Score.
5. Rank the results
6. Multiply Team Count +1 minus Rank (e.g. WT Rank 1 gets 18) with a Terrain Weighting (e.g. MO is higher than TT) to give a Stat Score
7. Apply factors to Stat score and Rider score to balance their contribution.
8. Add the factored Stat Scores and the Rider Scores to get a Team Score
The model ignores Depth Scoring, Classics, TTT, U25, Backup Stats and Planning Choices. Possible improvements for next season.
For the excel boffins the formula for Stage Race rating is below. The +8 is a workaround for internal calculation reasons to distinguish the SR used stats from the “native” stats. I didn’t have the time to do a redesign to make it work properly.
Interested to hear opinions on adjusting the factors for stage racing which are Mountain*2, Hill*0.7, TT*0.8, Recovery*0.2. These try to average out for a season, TT isn’t higher as some stage races don’t have a ITT.
=((MO+8)*2+(HIL+8)*0.7+(TT+8)*0.8+(REC+8)*0.2)/3.8
Thanks for the post, again, D2B. I think the prediction looks very interesting.
I could deifnitely see Qatar on top, simply because Aru and Kwiatek could have outstanding seasons & ride everything into the ground. However other teams are arguably more sustainably and more structurally built and thus have a lower chance to drop, such as Grupo, BP, and Allianz.
If we end up 5th I'd be quite okay with that, too., as we can easily be behind Renault, Italo or even Baku I think. Find i also hard to believe that CCC would fight for relegation if Komisarek delivers.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Thanks for the update, D2B. Looks pretty realistic, though as Shonak said, CCC probably shouldn't be ranked last considering how dangerous Komisarek is.
Thanks for all the previews done so far. It's fun to see your team rated so low. But on the other hand you can't really blame math for it, can you? Although, DaveTwoBob system was really close with CCC prediction last season. I can only pray my riders will prove him wrong this time around.
Shonak wrote:
Find i also hard to believe that CCC would fight for relegation if Komisarek delivers.
Ripley wrote:
Thanks for the update, D2B. Looks pretty realistic, though as Shonak said, CCC probably shouldn't be ranked last considering how dangerous Komisarek is.
Considering almost all of his race days are full WC except TT, he would need to deliver hard for me to not get relegated. Sure, he is a beast - 9th highest rider by average. I'm curious of how he will do this season compared to last year.
Thanks for the feedback - my model cannot cope with outliers like Komisarek and I agree that CCC will over-perform my prediction, we will see if its enough to stay in WT.
And we can see the same effect with La Vie Claire in CT.
Generally a better job than World Tour except for Shell Pro Cycling.
Rank
Pr Pts
D2B
Diff
1
6372
Brugse Zot - Trek
3
-2
2
5354
Trans Cycling Team
7
-5
3
5039
Equinor Pro Cycling Team
5
-2
4
4940
Bosch Cycling Team
1
3
5
4526
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
6
-1
6
4356
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
10
-4
7
4304
Magnum - Madshus
2
5
8
4180
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
9
-1
9
3999
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry
12
-3
10
3728
Education First x Palace - Nippo
8
2
11
3650
Team Cymru Wales
17
-6
12
3527
Tierra del Fuego
11
1
13
3394
Strava - ANZ
16
-3
14
3369
Millenium - LATAM Airlines
15
-1
15
3362
Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm
13
2
16
3227
VIP Mobile
19
-3
17
3156
ICBC Cycling Team
18
-1
18
3104
Shell Pro Cycling
4
14
19
2963
Nordea Bank - SAP
14
5
20
1939
Cadejo - Bike Xpress
20
0
CT Team Prediction
The model indicates Équipe Cycliste Peugeot are leaders with a tight group including Tierra del Fuego, Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry, Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm and VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff in the fight for promotion.
La Vie Claire have strong leaders and little depth. Last year’s model had them nearly last which felt unrealistic and prompted the model changes. The revised model puts them mid table, it will be interesting to see how accurate this proves to be.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
Pos
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
%
1
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
12
1
5
5
3
13
0%
2
Tierra del Fuego
1
10
7
11
15
1
2%
3
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry
17
17
2
1
2
10
5%
4
Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm
5
13
11
3
5
2
5%
5
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
5
10
7
16
8
4
5%
6
EF x Palace - Nippo
7
5
11
4
7
12
7%
7
Ziggo
9
5
7
12
12
5
8%
8
Millenium - LATAM Airlines
10
3
10
2
19
9
11%
9
Santos - Euskadi
8
2
16
10
3
16
11%
10
La Vie Claire
18
15
1
13
17
3
14%
11
Euskaltel - Elior
15
9
11
9
9
17
14%
12
DFK Panevėžys
16
17
5
7
9
18
15%
13
Shell Pro Cycling
2
5
19
17
1
14
16%
14
BNZ Cycling Team
4
3
20
15
11
6
16%
15
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
3
10
15
17
13
7
16%
16
Vegeta Cycling Team
12
19
4
14
14
11
19%
17
Magnum - Madshus
20
20
3
7
5
20
21%
18
ICBC Cycling Team
10
5
14
20
20
15
23%
19
Cadejo - Bike Xpress
12
15
17
19
16
8
27%
20
Proximus Cycling Team
19
14
18
5
17
19
32%
CT Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
Thanks, definitely could see Peugeot on top as well, however they may also enjoy the team to a bit of a rebuild. Moser in particular is not a rider as good as his stats suggest. Tierra I could also go see up, would pehraps see VisitUkraine and Ziggo closer to the last podium.
Will be a good CT season surely, I'll try to do some videos as well for the more prestigious CT stage races and classics.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Looks good guys! I'll read through the previews a bit more thoroughly once I'm done checking planners (if you haven't sent yours yet, consider this a reminder!).
I'll be once again cheering for ICBC in the Continental Tour for the crossover of riders with my team, but will also keep an eye on BNZ to see how Bauke goes. If his point-scoring can continue like the last few years, don't be surprised to see them pushing for promotion as well.
Wow, 2nd definitely looks promising! It's not that surprising, though, as I too think we should be in the promotion fight this year.
I'd also say we're probably Top3 in Mo/SR, having Chamorro as a great CT climber and Gomez for the more TT heavy stage races. But I don't really see us winning a lot of those races tbh.
Then, I'd say that with PCM15, Zabel is probably our strongest puncheur (although I'd like to see Huamán there to have even more different names ); Chamorro won't do a lot of hills despite being listed as our #1 there.
Sprints probably are where we're weakest, as it's pointed out in D2B's model. However, with Zabel targetting rather the medium difficulty hilly races than the pan-flat ones, I hope we've found a niche where he can score well despite not being among the fastest pure sprinters.
Huge thanks to all of you who did those predictions, it's a pleasure to study them
Happy to hear the hours of excel wrangling were worth it, I really am very rusty!
Next up we have the expanded and revised U23 tour. With the qualifying rider changes and my stage race stat I am hopeful the model will prove a useful guide.
I had a few headaches adjusting my macros to accommodate the massive 30 team U23 Tour!
My team has dominated U23 for a few seasons but no longer, a new U23 champion will be crowned and the model says it’s a two horse race between La Fundación (AURUM) and Islandsbanki. Fighting for podium spots are Astana U23 and Bosch Babies
I have tweaked the U23 terrain ratings to more favour sprints vs WT as a sprinter was top scorer in U23 last year but Stage Race is still the dominant terrain.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
Pos
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
%
1
La Fundación
1
7
15
30
2
1
0%
2
Islandsbanki
3
1
2
6
18
4
3%
3
Astana U23
2
1
10
24
17
2
8%
4
TBA - cio U23
4
19
3
26
10
7
9%
5
Bora - Argon18 Development Team
15
16
1
13
11
9
12%
6
Aviva Futura Project
10
19
21
20
1
16
13%
7
Los Gauchitos
6
21
24
14
2
6
13%
8
EF Cycling School
9
7
9
8
22
3
14%
9
Renault Techno Development
17
21
4
2
15
14
14%
10
Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar
7
4
24
19
13
5
17%
11
Équipe Development Citroën
21
4
20
5
6
15
17%
12
De Stijl Cycling
20
15
5
8
8
18
17%
13
Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team
18
12
21
4
5
19
19%
14
Síragon Project
12
13
26
17
4
22
19%
15
PureBlack Racing
30
23
13
1
7
28
19%
16
Deutsche Bahn Development Team
13
9
23
3
23
17
24%
17
Alpine Boys
7
6
27
15
20
11
26%
18
Aru4Ever - Panaria
5
18
28
18
12
10
28%
19
P&O Ferries Zeebrugge
27
26
6
7
9
26
30%
20
Euskaltel
11
9
10
21
25
8
32%
21
Podravka Cycling Team
16
25
16
12
25
12
34%
22
Rabobank
28
14
19
10
14
27
35%
23
CCC Development Team
25
23
17
11
19
20
41%
24
PKKSC Dviratininkai
22
11
7
21
27
24
44%
25
Giant Asia Racing Team
22
3
10
21
29
23
44%
26
Air Algérie - Godiva
29
17
14
25
16
25
46%
27
BlackBerry Limited U23
18
30
7
16
28
21
46%
28
Cadejo - Bike Xpress Cycling Academy
13
27
18
29
30
13
67%
29
LBO Development Team
24
28
29
27
23
29
83%
30
Millenium Academia de Ciclismo
26
29
30
28
21
30
94%
U23 Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
We can see a lot of the top teams have taken advantage of the new rules allowing higher average riders.
We'd love to finish 6th. With the new restriction to U23 race days it was easy to avoid our weaknesses, no cobblestones, no hilly one-day races, as few TT km as possible.
Excited to see Guinness so far up, but again, it's about planning, and ours is not great. Blackberry at the bottom is expected. Besides McGuinness, who's still at the beginning of his journey, our farm team is about getting domestiques trained from our target nations more than developing future leaders.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I never really intended to have a team that was great on hills and nothing else, but here we are! Koejoe and Won stepping up to the main team means we no longer have a stage racer or a sprinter, so a huge amount of points will have to come from Wongsa and Susilo if we want to finish mid-table. Brouwers is good too, but TT points are hard to come by and the remaining five are unlikely to score anything significant against stronger U23 competition.
I was quite shocked to see the number "24" for our Gauchito's TT, given that we should have one of the division's strongest TTers (Ollero) - but yeah, given that 3 riders are taken into account, you can't come up high if you've got one classy rider and just TT noobs elsewhere
I hope we'll finish slightly higher than 7th, but a Top 10 would actually be fine. As the table shows, we're strong in mountains and sprints, where we've got two leaders. SR is surprisingly high, so I guess TTing doesn't have a huge impact there - but Ollero hopefully will indeed be among the Top 5 stage racers.
Also looking forward to see if Gorriarán can do something on the cobbles, while we had to omit hills almost completely given our lack of a puncheur.
Will surely be fun to follow our future stars with the new stat limit rules, though!
