Last year Philippe Gilbert won RVV achieving his third different monument, a feat that just Fabain Cancellara reached in last decade. Will there be someone that this year will break into this champions club?
maybe Kristoff or Degenkolb with their wins at MS and one of the cobbled, winning the second missing...or Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Nibali with a fantastic double this season, crazy exploit for Moscon/Lutsenko/Wellens with a treble?
In my opinion Kristoff has to demostrate that he still be alive for great level, 2nd place at WC is not enough for a rider that lost the shape of the best years, but PR is a crazy race, just see Hayman story...
Degenkolb got a fantastic 2015 season, and after that nothing to report, and never looked to be close to something after his PR win, RVV may be also a too hard route for him
Kwiatkowski has surelly LBL in his features (two podiums for him) and his record at Lombardia could be better, but I never saw him so good on cobble, he lead at Ronde but with poor results and never took part at PR, not sure if he is ready for a double...
Sagan, soon or later he'll win MS, I'm quite sure about, and in PR wasn't the luckiest rider in the peloton, he can reach this, let see if this will be the good year, LBL and (in particular) Lombardia are probably too hard for him, but I'll be surprised if at the end of his career he won't win three monuments
Van Avermaet, unfortunatly for him not enought brillant in mass sprints for a solid nomination at MS, but if Poggio makes selection everithing changes, same of Sagan talking about the rest, very unlucky at RVV and I'll not see him for the latest two in calendar, despite not so bad results in his previous presences. Possible but, has to run for it, his age is higher than many others
Nibali, what a career for him! He already reached podium at MS and LBL, but in 2012, time is running for him, and if remanins one of the best GT riders, on one day he need a very hard route to make difference, in fact in last years came two Lombardia, probably too late for the cobbled ones, but I'm dreaming...
For the 3 young guys mentioned before thinking at a mythical treble is Fanta-cycling, but surelly we are hearing a lot about them in next years, Moscon in a single year got 5th PR, 3rd Lombardia, 6th ITT WC, and ITT NC, with a great solo in San Sebastian last kms, and a Vuelta among principal actors despite domestique role (second in a mass sprint and very strong on mountains), a great action in last lap of WC, and he was only 23!
Lutsenko got results not so brillant, but tons of talent! And this year looks like the consecration one
Wellens is just missing for a great one-day classic results, already won some fantastic races in one week tours, but never rode a cobbled monument...
We have no to forget that Gerrans and Dan Martin already won two, but personally I think thay shot their bullets...
Returning to the main question, my name is Sagan, although not necessarily in this season. In years, if things are going like this, another name that will win at least 3 monuments is Moscon.
What do you think about? make yor names and predictions!
...and after all, if there will be a 4th win??? C'mon Phill!
I really like this discussion. And since its friday, lets talk.
Though it is impossible to predict the future I would say there's a lot of talent capable to join the winners club. For near future I would also say Sagan, Kwiato, Nibali or and yes Gilbert taking 4th! Sagan deserves it and might even realising it next season.
Other short term candidates
-GVA is not fast enough at the finish line and too heavy for ardennes.. He could def saddle for it but I suspect him to go for cobbles.
-Wellens we haven't seen too much on cobblestones but could be a king of the ardennes
- Alaphillipe might be taking LBL and Lombardia but again not too much action on cobbles. Might be too light?
- Nibali could easily go for LBL, and maybe even Tour of Flanders! (you never know what this crazy man is capable of)
- Terpstra could aim for a Milano-San Remo but thats about it
- Jungels focus is mainly at GC's now but the guy is strong enough to aim for Lombardia and heavy enough for cobbles.....
- Demare is actually good at cobbles and already having MS in the bank. If he had the courage and the team, I could see him aim for PR og RV
- Valverde is always unpredictable and could win lombardia. BTW he is not bad at cobbles too.
For longer terms I think Van Aert, Moscon, Pedersen, Bernal, Gaviria, Benoot.. would all be fear factors in the monuments.
Considering I wrote this at the start of the season, something actually was happened. Starting from the beginning, who already got two as expected didn't won and even was close: Degenkolb is still far from a top shape, and Kristoff had an up and down season, and imo lost shine on cobbles; Dan Martin never rode what he is missing and probably will never do neither, Gerrans even retired.
Nibali and Sagan (and Terpstra) joined the team , good shot for Vincenzo at MS an achievment attainable but not probable for not speed man like him, I thought LBL was his best chance, so he is still running for the third, and never close a door (RVV) in front of him, you can't say what he is capable to do! Sagan "simply" (how wasn't really simply) did what I was expecting, win at least another monument, MS or PR, he satisfied me, and he is obviously on the run for the third (next year confirmed he will race LBL too).
About others mentioned, Kwiatkowski totally disappointed me, in LBL in particular, and I still don't see him on cobbled. Van Avermaet couldn't repeat his fantastic '17 season, not just results but also shape was missing imo, years are advancing...btw I remain with same belief, RVV is in his possibilities, MS hard, other two no.
Moscon still able to do everything, let see in the future what will win, something for sure imo.
Wellens another good Lombardia and surelly he has good chances for LBL too, still lacking on cobble.
Lutsenko seems more concentrated on one week races at least for now.
Though it is impossible to predict the future I would say there's a lot of talent capable to join the winners club. For near future I would also say Sagan, Kwiato, Nibali or and yes Gilbert taking 4th! Sagan deserves it and might even realising it next season.
Sagan really can, Nibali it should amaze us again but is able to do, Kwiatkowski probably needs another team where he can plane his season like leader, now is running too many races domestiquing here or there...
Gilbert I'm sorry for him but demonstrate that PR is for pure cobbler, he is not bad on, but without the hills like in RVV he is suffering against guys like GVA Sagan Stuyven Vanmarcke, he can't make any difference on flat against them, and for MS he need a very terrific action (a Nibali).
Other short term candidates
-GVA is not fast enough at the finish line and too heavy for ardennes.. He could def saddle for it but I suspect him to go for cobbles.
-Wellens we haven't seen too much on cobblestones but could be a king of the ardennes
- Alaphillipe might be taking LBL and Lombardia but again not too much action on cobbles. Might be too light?
- Nibali could easily go for LBL, and maybe even Tour of Flanders! (you never know what this crazy man is capable of)
- Terpstra could aim for a Milano-San Remo but thats about it
- Jungels focus is mainly at GC's now but the guy is strong enough to aim for Lombardia and heavy enough for cobbles.....
- Demare is actually good at cobbles and already having MS in the bank. If he had the courage and the team, I could see him aim for PR og RV
- Valverde is always unpredictable and could win lombardia. BTW he is not bad at cobbles too.
-GVA: agree 100%
-Wellens: yes for sure, but I'm expecting better placings on LBL (16th so far)
-Alaphilippe: LBL and Lombardia are of course at his level, for MS we saw how he can go for it. He is a possible candidate for three monuments. About cobbles agree he is not heavy enough PR not even to mention, RVV hard...very hard
-Nibali: agree 100%
-Terpstra: imo he got everything he could (Dan Martin situation)
-Jungels: yes true, I'm very curious to see him on cobble, the physique is there, and Lombardia should be a good race for him too
-Demare: yes is good on cobble, but for RVV needs more on climbs, and for PR he needs a not too hard day where I see better other guys
-Valverde: Agree, unfortunatly for him he need to hit the target in every occasion now, if after Tokyo 2020 is retiring
Champ_Armstrong wrote:
For longer terms I think Van Aert, Moscon, Pedersen, Bernal, Gaviria, Benoot.. would all be fear factors in the monuments.
-Van Aert: literally exploded after I posted this, on cobbles looks very strong, let see in other races but there are exciting prospects
-Moscon: candidate for 3 and more monuments, imo best young talent in cycling (with Evenepoel's shade)
-Pedersen: very good on cobbles, let see if he will be a Terpstra or what
-Bernal: Lombardia, maybe LBL (but it isn't a colombian race), no more
-Gaviria: if he improve on cobbles should take a shot for PR...mmh hard for RVV, MS for sure but I'm ready to bet nothing more
-Benoot: another huge talent, on cobbles in particular, maybe hasn't characteristics for winning three monuments but we will see him fighting a lot.
I can see Moscon as a top candidate for all 5 monuments, perhaps the best guy out there with Peter Sagan who can win two in a year. Or more, even, depends on how he works out his training and racing schedule. Despite his atitude, guy's the biggest, massive talent out there right now.
Michael Valgren, though. Another option for me. Ronde van Vlaanderen and Liège (if he leads the team there) are suited for him, and can catapult his Amstel Gold Race win. Not sure about Paris-Roubaix, but for Milan San Remo, he's the kind of guy who can snatch a late winning attack, like Nibali did this year.
FreitasPCM wrote:
I can see Moscon as a top candidate for all 5 monuments, perhaps the best guy out there with Peter Sagan who can win two in a year. Or more, even, depends on how he works out his training and racing schedule. Despite his atitude, guy's the biggest, massive talent out there right now.
Michael Valgren, though. Another option for me. Ronde van Vlaanderen and Liège (if he leads the team there) are suited for him, and can catapult his Amstel Gold Race win. Not sure about Paris-Roubaix, but for Milan San Remo, he's the kind of guy who can snatch a late winning attack, like Nibali did this year.
The only monument I can't see Sagan win is Il Lombardia, but then again, I might be wrong.. He confirmed focusing on italian races next season, including the Giro and IL.
Moscon could also be a major factor but it really depends on what he will be focussing on. He confirmed aiming for Giro 2019 with spring classic program till Rubaix. So no ardennes for him. The guy is cabable of anything but not too fast in a sprint.
Valgren is strong too but so far he is only a one hit wonder. Next season there will be alot of sight on him. I'm suspecting him to win more but lets see how he is riding when other favourites consider him as a thread. Also Dimension Data will have a strong classic team. I'm looking forward to see how they'll handle that.
EDIT: Evenepoel is currently looking strong among juniors but a lot have done that in the past. Gotta be exciting to watch him at prof level. You se 2-3 year? Lets say 4 Edited by Champ_Armstrong on 22-10-2018 09:14
It's a shame Mathieu isn't starting, that new finish should suit him. I don't see him win Lombardia (he'll probably prove me wrong though), but 3 should definitely be possible.
Ollfardh wrote:
It's a shame Mathieu isn't starting, that new finish should suit him. I don't see him win Lombardia (he'll probably prove me wrong though), but 3 should definitely be possible.
IMO, VDP can win all 4, five is there are some years of an easier course in Lombardia and he sets his eye on it.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Let's do some off-season stuff...
This year we had 4 new winners and a 4th win:
Alaphilippe: good for him taking MS, I told he was up for 3 monuments and probably he took the one I was expecting the less (surely a candidate for this)
Bettiol: never mentioned before, he won the one likely more suited for him, but the way was awsome, great rider (possible, but everything to be shown yet)
Fuglsang: Best season of his career at 34, got LBL. At this point he can get a shot for Lombardia, but very hard for first 3 monuments of the year where moreover hav just a single partecipation in RVV '16 (too late...)
Mollema: Same as Jakob with opposite races, but one year younger and raced just MS '14, probably also less skilled on cobbles (let's fight for two)
...and Gilbert! He proved me wrong, and got his 4th before everyone else took the third, now just MS is missing for the complete crown. How far can he go with Lotto Soudal? (four and more!)
Did I miss Stybar somewhere in all this? Good over almost everything, like Sagan, LBL/Lombardia probably always too much, but feel the other three are within reach.
Stybar is a great rider, and for sure he has the chance to win at least 3/4 different monuments, but yeah he is 34 and never got one. Anyway he just rode LBL once and Lombardia twice, probably he will never be back on those ones.
Imo Sagan is the favourite for the third, but every year he find a way to don't win MS
Asgreen is another rider that can really do great things besides Van Aert and Van der Poel (about who is still at 0)
Still I cheer for Gilbert. If he manage to win MSR that would give him legend status. And I really hope this happens.
Who surprised me in 2019
MVDP
Fuglsang
Alap
Mads P
Mollema
EDIT: Evenepoel
I love Stybar - he looks like De Vlaeminck when he rides - but - he rides for the wrong team if he wants to win more. Simply.
Edited by Champ_Armstrong on 04-12-2019 14:03
I thought about this topic today. Gilbert isn't going to make the 5 unless he cancels his retirement and somehow also wins Sanremo. So who will win all 5?
Wout van Aert - Probably the guy with the best shot to win all 5 monuments. But he's already 27 and only has won 1 so far.
Mathieu van der Poel - A very similar story, but I still don't see him win Lombardia.
Tadej Pogacar - He already won 2 so far and should be able to win Ronde and Sanremo. But can he win Roubaix? I'm not convinced yet.
Remco Evenepoel - It looked very good for him until his Lombardia crash (which might as well could have been number 1 for him if he didn't crash). Also I'm not convinced of his cobble skills.
Tom Pidcock - Another big alround talent, but also still on 0 and doesn't seem to be that good on the cobbles.
Matej Mohoric - Allrounder, won San Remo and surprised me in Roubaix this year. But still don't now what to make of him.
Julian Alaphilippe - He's 29 already, so he really needs to win his second this year if he's aiming for this. ALso not convinced yet for Roubaix
Everyone else with 1 monument win is probably too old at this point or not enough of an allrounder to win 5.
FreitasPCM wrote: I can see Moscon as a top candidate for all 5 monuments, perhaps the best guy out there with Peter Sagan who can win two in a year. Or more, even, depends on how he works out his training and racing schedule. Despite his atitude, guy's the biggest, massive talent out there right now.
What the actual f was I thinking here.
I'm pretty sure if Pogacar ends up winning RvV one day he will also try Roubaix. Not sure how that will affect his performances in stage racing - problably not that much, the guy is a monster and he can do whatever he puts his mind onto.
Ollfardh wrote:
I thought about this topic today. Gilbert isn't going to make the 5 unless he cancels his retirement and somehow also wins Sanremo. So who will win all 5?
Wout van Aert - Probably the guy with the best shot to win all 5 monuments. But he's already 27 and only has won 1 so far.
Mathieu van der Poel - A very similar story, but I still don't see him win Lombardia.
Tadej Pogacar - He already won 2 so far and should be able to win Ronde and Sanremo. But can he win Roubaix? I'm not convinced yet.
Remco Evenepoel - It looked very good for him until his Lombardia crash (which might as well could have been number 1 for him if he didn't crash). Also I'm not convinced of his cobble skills.
Tom Pidcock - Another big alround talent, but also still on 0 and doesn't seem to be that good on the cobbles.
Matej Mohoric - Allrounder, won San Remo and surprised me in Roubaix this year. But still don't now what to make of him.
Julian Alaphilippe - He's 29 already, so he really needs to win his second this year if he's aiming for this. ALso not convinced yet for Roubaix
Everyone else with 1 monument win is probably too old at this point or not enough of an allrounder to win 5.
Van Aert is the only one of those guys that I feel confident in given the rider they are. Not to say that he'll do it, but he's capable of it. Almost all of the guys you listed, it's one extreme or the other that hurts them. There are so few guys who have the skillset to win Lombardia and Roubaix. But Wout Van Aert doesn't just have that potential, he's capable of it right now, as the rider he is currently. He may be "already 27" in the age of neo pro superstars, but 27 is traditionally close to the beginning of a normal rider's peak. He could legitimately have 7 or 8 good chances at the other 4 monuments left. Just depends on if he falls off a cliff or runs into injury problems.
Pogocar is insane, and I wouldn't put it past him to take a real crack at Roubaix one day. But I think he would have to shape his entire season or more around it, and I'm not sure he'll do that any time soon. Then again, I was very surprised he took on Ronde too, and he immediately finished in the front group.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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