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Vuelta a España - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-02-2022 23:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
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 Vuelta a España
Thanks to SotD for the preview.
Bienvenido a la Vuelta a España
Who doesn't love riding in Spain? The race have a number of living legends to it's tally including newly crowned world Champion, Silvio Herklotz (2018) and the runner-up, Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier who won the most recent version. Last season's Giro winner, Rein Taaramäe won the race in between, in 2019. Most time winners are legendary Andy Schleck, who have the race tied with former rider Francisco Mancebo - both having won the race twice. Taaramäe along with Angel Madrazo and Justo Tenorio are back to try and match that record.
Last season the race saw Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier run away with the crown ahead of local hero Justo Tenorio and russian Timofey Kritskiy.
This years edition will start in the small town of Rota in the province of Cádiz in the Andalusian region, and as traditions states, will finish in the capital, Madrid.
Week 1: Flat and timetrial
In the small beautiful coastcity of Rota the riders will set out for the first stage of the race. A relatively uneventful stage finishing in the citadel city of Alcalá de Guadaíra close to Seville. The stage is inviting the sprinters of the race to an early stagewin even crowning the efforts by taking the leaders jersey aswell. The finish is slightly uphill and could favor the stronger sprinters. Watch out for the long sprint, as it may cost you in the end!
Stage 2 starts in Mairena del Alcor and will finish in the town of Córdoba. The stage is intended for the sprinters, but how many will survive the difficult climbs towards the end? We are likely going to see another sprint finish, but no necessarily the same names. Also I wouldn't rule out a breakaway as the final decent isn't that far of the finish line.
Stage 3 going from Baeza to Albacete is a more regular stage. The bumps on the way to the line are classical spanish roads, and despite it going slightly up and down for most of the days, most sprinters should be able to defend themselve until the end.
Stage 4 is a circuit around Logroño, and a perfect way for the GC riders and puncheurs to gather energy for the next stage. The stage should definately be easy to control, and makes for another sprint finish.
Stage 5 from Belorado to Obregón, however could go either way. The long flat run-in towards the first climb of the day will make it difficult to bring the best suited breakaway riders into the front group, and similarly there is a fairly flat finish albeit ending in an uphill scenario. If you want to take this from the breakaway you need to be well-rounded and fast to make the early selection, otherwise it could well be a finish between the fastest puncheurs and GC riders.
Stage 6 will make use of the flat roads around Salamanca to implement a very long individual timetrial, consisting of 42 flat kilometers. This is a true powerroute, and will definately fancy the best specialists. We are likely to see two battles here. One for the stagewin, and another for the leaders jersey as stage 5 have likely made enough of a selection to keep most of the timetriallists at bay.
Stage 7 ending in Pontevedra will conclude the first week with another classic spanish sprint stage with the semidifficult climbs up ahead. The stage could be suited for some of the powerriders that didn't go flat out during the timetrial though.
Week 2: Slow start... Then Angliru?!
Stage 8 is more of the same, allowing the sprinters one final dash before heading into the more heavy stuff. The stage will finish in Haro and it's difficult to see any other option than the teams working together for a sprint finish.
Stage 9 from Faustino to Peña Cabarga will give the punchy climbers a chance to unsettle the GC. The stage is going slightly uphill in a tiring runop to the first climb of the day, before finishing in 3 steep climbs. At 213km this is the longest - and easily toughest stage of the race at this point. I would expect the GC riders fighting for the stage, but it may not be hard enough to rule out the puncheurs either. As the stage is long the endurance will need to be well spent.
Stage 10 is the first classical mountain stage as we move from Gijon into Asturias with the finish on Alto de l'Angliru! The climb is historical with the average gradients of 10,1% maxing at incredible 24%. The climb just get's tougher and tougher until it flattens just a little bit in the very final part. This is a short stage of just 138km that could see many victims falling short of the calculated time. This is the stage where you can initiate your win, or fall way short.
Stage 11 around the Malaga coast lines and hills is a well deserved breather, but as a GC contender you can't afford to sleep through the one. On paper it's a perfect breakaway stage, but the puncheurs will likely want to attack this stage at a later state. Some of the GC riders that have lost time will also look to recover and play this one aggressively.
Stage 12 from Malaga to the iconic Sierra Nevada region is tailormade for the GC riders. We can expect to see some breakaway riders getting a lot of leeway from the start, but will it be enough to fend off the GC riders once they come flying up the final climb? I doubt it.
Stage 13 is a clasical transition stage between Murcia and Benidorm and will offer a very nice and short day in the saddle. The sprinters (Whoever might remain) will try to make the most from this, but the short stages after a difficult climb isn't necessarily given as a sprint stage despite being pan flat.
Stage 14 concludes the 2nd week heading towards Valencia on a more classical spanish flat stage. It will be the last chance for the sprinters before Madrid. Can they keep it together?
Week 3: Fresh legs or die!
Stage 15 - Let's get on with it! The final week is not for the fainthearted as we kick of in Lérida and move directly into Andorra where the 220km long stage will end at Cortels d'Encamp which is roughly 9km long averaging at 8%. However the stage include another 3-4 difficult climbs and sharp downhills make this stage very difficult.
Stage 16 stays in Andorra, more specifically in Andorra la Vella. The stage is a mountainous TT of 35,6km. This could take the peep out of most people, let alone after such a difficult stage. We can expect the climbers to defend themselves well on this route as it doesn't hold a single flat km.
Stage 17 will be the last of Andorra, as we head out from Andorra le Vella towards the monumental Vallter 2000. The catalan pyrenees is well known for it's sharp skihills, and today we are crossing 4 summits on just 135km. Whatever remaining sprinters will not be looking kindly at this route, that's a given!
Stage 18 - Ahh atleast we can rest. I mean. Wait, what? From Camprodon over 5 summits before heading directly into the final ascent of Ax 3 Domains. This is just ridiculous! 160km of pure up and down. The recuperation from the riders need to be in stellar mode to survive this. We have been through so much that I can't decide which stage is the Queen Stage. This could well be it. At this state there will be many competent climbers that lost time, and this could be a well deserved breakaway win.
Stage 19 start in the Basque capital of Bilbao, before heading towards Vitoria in a very regular breakaway stage. I doubt the sprinters have enough to survive the bumps at this rate - if there are still some left, that is.
Stage 20 starts in Segovia and moves all the way to Bola del Mundo in a 170km long stage to clarify whatever needing to be cleared before heading to Madrid. Yet again a solid 5 summit mountainstage finishing on the solitude of the Bola del Mundo that shares quite some resemblances to iconic Mont Ventoux.
Stage 21 and it is all over! From Cercedilla into the cheering crowds in Madrid and it all ends in the sprint. Who is still here? Who have anything left in the tank? No one knows, but whoever wins this have showed remarkable endurance.
9 Flat (One uphill finish)
4 Hill (One hill top finish)
2 TT (42km flat, 26km MTT)
6 Mountain (6 mountain top finish)
*The early stars of the race*
A preview always start with the overall favorites - but not this time. Instead we will start out byt looking at the favorites for the first week.
The early week includes 5 flat stages, 1 hilly and 1 timetrial - and there are a number of strong riders looking to grab that early succes - either a stagewin, a jersey or maybe both.
| RIDER | FL | HI | SPR | ACC |  Grosu | 73 | 73 | 83 | 80 |  Gaviria | 76 | 72 | 83 | 84 |  Ahlstrand | 74 | 67 | 83 | 82 |  Lo Cicero | 71 | 63 | 83 | 77 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 76 | 82 | 79 |  Swift | 72 | 66 | 82 | 79 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 64 | 81 | 79 |  Rowe | 71 | 61 | 79 | 68 |  Kamberaj | 75 | 69 | 79 | 78 |  Bertilsson | 73 | 69 | 79 | 77 | | Holloway | 76 | 67 | 78 | 79 |  Farantakis | 72 | 65 | 78 | 78 | | Van der Kooij | 73 | 69 | 78 | 77 |  Harrison | 72 | 67 | 78 | 81 | | Cisse | 74 | 63 | 78 | 77 | | Young | 74 | 69 | 78 | 77 |
Some of the fastest riders in the world have decided to attend the race, and some are also fairly competent on the hilly stage 5 and thus cannot be ruled out at all. In particular riders like Gaviria, Grosu and van der Lijke seems tailormade for the difficult finish, but some of the more potent puncheurs will be lurking in the shadows for a shout at the leaders jesey.
| RIDER | FL | HI | SPR | ACC | | McCarthy | 70 | 81 | 65 | 74 | | Turgis | 73 | 79 | 70 | 77 | | Meintjes | 71 | 78 | 61 | 69 | | Bellis | 74 | 77 | 73 | 74 |  Meurisse | 73 | 77 | 71 | 78 |  Serrano | 69 | 77 | 68 | 77 | | Zakarin | 72 | 77 | 65 | 73 |  Schlegel | 69 | 77 | 64 | 75 |  Blums | 72 | 77 | 64 | 70 |  Mager | 70 | 77 | 60 | 71 | | van der Poel | 73 | 76 | 72 | 77 | | Narvaez | 68 | 76 | 72 | 73 |
In particular cycleYorkshire and Farfetch Pro Cycling will be eager to get this stage going having the best suited riders regardless of the stage being very hard or semihard, includes late breaks, or just the strongest sprinting for the line. Some of these riders will want to try their luck early and possibly fight for the KOM aswell.
The lurking timetrial on stage 6 will likely turn things around, from being sprinters an puncheurs to being a race for the more endurant timetriallists and GC aspirants.
| RIDER | FL | HI | TT | RES | | Vlatos | 72 | 66 | 81 | 71 | | Tenorio | 68 | 76 | 80 | 76 | | Taaramäe | 73 | 76 | 79 | 77 | | Cattaneo | 70 | 70 | 79 | 80 | | Kritskiy | 73 | 73 | 78 | 73 |  Powless | 72 | 72 | 78 | 74 |  Haig | 72 | 74 | 77 | 75 | | Vlasov | 72 | 72 | 77 | 71 | | De Bod | 73 | 70 | 77 | 78 | | Eaton | 75 | 69 | 77 | 76 | | Goldstein | 75 | 66 | 77 | 75 |  Beniusis | 71 | 59 | 77 | 72 |
Panagiotis Vlatos comes as the strongest timetriallist of the race, and want to make the most of it - the difficult stage 5 probably see him out of contention for the leaders jersey however, and if the stage is difficult he might also lack the resistance and firepower that the likes of Tenorio, Taaramäe and Cattaneo have in plenties. If either of those guys get a hang of the leaders jersey it will be difficult to take it off them.
Let's have a look at that favorites list by now!
| RIDER | MO | HI | TT | END | RES | REC | ACC | | Madrazo | 84 | 75 | 76 | 80 | 79 | 80 | 71 | | Tenorio | 84 | 76 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 79 | 67 | | Taaramäe | 83 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 74 | 73 | | Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 | 76 | 80 | 80 | 70 | | Kritskiy | 82 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 73 | 64 | | Haig | 82 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 78 | 73 | | Reis | 81 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 64 | | Hirt | 81 | 74 | 73 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 76 | | Carthy | 81 | 75 | 67 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 69 | | Bennett | 81 | 76 | 65 | 75 | 74 | 79 | 73 | | Pinot | 80 | 74 | 65 | 76 | 79 | 75 | 69 | | Meintjes | 80 | 78 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 69 |
Three former winners top the favorites list in form of 2012 winner Angel Madrazo, 2013 winner Justo Tenorio and 2019 winner Rein Taaramäe.
Angel Madrazo last participated in this race in 2018 where he landed 3rd behind Silvio Herklotz and Taylor Phinney. Neither are present this season, but at that time he beat the likes of Justo Tenorio and Timofey Kritskiy.
Rein Taaramäe participated in the 2019 edition where he won the race ahead of Timefey Kritskiy and Justo Tenorio. So both riders have the upper hand against their primary rivals.
Speaking of Justo Tenorio, he landed 2nd last year behind Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier, but he gave him a solid fight for the win, being beat by only 31 seconds.
It's difficult to see who should be able to beat them, but don't rule out the likes of Cattaneo, Kritskiy and Haig - All of which will be targeting a GC podium. Most likely probably is Jack Haig who have a top notch acceleration and could cling on to the top favorites when they put the hammer down.
Another rider that have a massive explosiveness is Jan Hirt, who might benefit from this to surprise the more endurant climbers. Louis Meintjes is the best puncheur of the bunch and might be able to gain a bit here and there when the gradients become too hard for the likes of Cattaneo, Kritskiy and Reis. Other outsiders for the top 5 is Carthy, Bennett and Pinot - but all of them need to perform above their normal self in order to achieve anything but a lower end top 10.
There is a very long list of riders capable of beating their way into the top 10, but we have decided to compile a list of the 10 most realistic - and also allowed for them to be our top contenders for the KOM jersey!
| RIDER | MO | HI | RES | REC | ACC | FIG | DH | | Kirsch | 79 | 74 | 73 | 75 | 67 | 62 | 62 | | Nesset | 78 | 73 | 76 | 74 | 69 | 60 | 68 | | De la Cruz | 78 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 65 | 73 | | Smith | 78 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 71 | | Fabbro | 78 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 74 | 70 | | Vosekalns | 78 | 75 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 81 | 68 | | Carboni | 78 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 69 | 61 | 72 | | Mamykin | 77 | 72 | 76 | 85 | 67 | 66 | 69 | | Prado | 77 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 70 | 72 | 70 | | Roman | 77 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 78 | | Parra Bustamente | 77 | 74 | 74 | 77 | 71 | 75 | 65 |
Riders like Aular, Sosnitskiy, Karnulin and Vosekalns have been sorted out of the list due to the likelyness of them being more luxury riders than free to attack the KOM and top 10GC themselves.
On the list are some interesting riders like Kirsch, De la Cruz and Prado who all seem realistic as riders actually fighting to achieve a top 10-15 GC, but it's also so insignificant, that maybe a KOM fight is more realistic, and here's a long list of riders like Nesset, Smith, Carboni, Mamykin and Roman who are very likely to succeed in getting either stagesucces or KOM succes.
The last interesting battle is the young riders competition, and here there is another very interesting battle going on between helpers, and free riders.
| RIDER | MO | HI | TT | REC | ACC | | Aular | 79 | 71 | 68 | 75 | 69 | | Powless | 77 | 72 | 78 | 76 | 71 | | Schleck | 77 | 73 | 53 | 78 | 73 | | Roman | 77 | 75 | 64 | 74 | 76 | | Giannoutsos | 76 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 67 |  Eenkhoorn | 76 | 72 | 67 | 78 | 71 | | Williams | 76 | 72 | 66 | 75 | 72 | | Petelin | 76 | 72 | 62 | 70 | 73 | | Higuita | 76 | 75 | 65 | 77 | 73 | | Sosa | 76 | 76 | 67 | 78 | 72 |
While Orluis Aular is easily the best climber of the bunch, Neilson Powless is undoubtably the most versatile. Both are semi locked on domestique duties however so we might well see aggressive riders like Roman or Schleck battleing the jersey on the side. Riders like Giannoutsos, Eeenkhoorn, Williams, Petelin, Higuita, Sosa and below those need a very solid race to be able to land a podium, but who knows. In particular Higuita and Sosa seems very well rounded and should have enough freedom.
Startlist:
The overall startlist of this great race is as follow.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 00:02
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Good luck everybody, my bet is a Rein show in week 3 
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| tastasol |
Posted on 05-02-2022 01:35
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Classics Specialist
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Similar to the team we had in the Giro for the mountains, but with Vingegaard in for Lastra. Seems like the startlist could give us some more opportunities than in the Giro, so excited to see how the race will be. Should be a great GC battle and I'm going for a home win for Madrazo.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 09:24
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-02-2022 09:17
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Instead of Mavrikakis we have de la Cruz, which on paper, should be better - but then again. We can’t possibly be any worse than the Giro where we were the worst of all.
Farantakis here as a bit of a wildcard. On paper he shouldn’t be ready yet, but there are so many flat stages that he may strike luck once or twice.
Other than that I guess it’s a matter of getting the race over with.
Would be great with a pre-Vuelta rankings though :-)
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-02-2022 09:47
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SotD wrote:
Would be great with a pre-Vuelta rankings though :-)
Sure.  |
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-02-2022 10:43
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World Champion
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Great job thanks! 
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 10:50
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World Champion
Posts: 13915
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Sprints, sprints, sprints!
We are here for the sprints. But the competition looks fierce. Ahlstrand is always a good competitor, while Gaviria is by far the strongest sprinter this season. And there are few others as well who will get involved in the madness.
For the GC, my bet is on Madrazo taking one last GT win before slowly starting to fade in the pool of alright climbers of the game.
And how dare you ignore Brambilla in the mountain goats section. Not only is he a mountain goat, he is a Vuelta GOAT 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 11:34
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Great Preview. Though I absolutely don't like the sprinters competition, I think we found a way to work our train. If we have a train and lead the pack I think we can set up Gaviria really well.
Though looking at the startlist I probably shouldve sent Gaviria to Le Tour, especially as I expected Grosu there.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 13:41
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World Champion
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I wasn't sure where to send Grosu. Here or the Tour. But I have this record of winning a stage in La Vuelta in each year I took part and I'd like to keep for as long as I can and I didn't want to leave that job on Van Poppel's shoulders
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 14:57
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Seems like Resell is my only guy here. Very nice opportunity for him, and probably the only time he'll get to ride a GT, maybe ever. Hope he does great domestique work for Grieg and maybe gets into a breakaway or two on a flat day.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 22:40
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Exactly what we planned for. Got a little nervous when Cisse got ahead, but we played it to perfection with our Roleurs ahead of Riabushenko and Gaviria, who created that slingshot we really wanted to achieve with our set-up. Perfect execution of the match-plan, very happy with that.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-02-2022 22:45
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World Champion
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Fernando!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-02-2022 22:46
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Grand Tour Champion
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Awesome preview, looking forward to the race!
This is all about Taaramae. The lineup is 100% picked to maximize his support with 6 other climbers and Dzamastagic for all the flat stages. Startlist is basically exactly what i expected except that i expected Madrazo to be at the Tour which could really screw up my scoring here.
Cool to see the top sprinter immediately win on the first opportunity *sits down in the corner and cries*
Congrats cro!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-02-2022 23:32
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World Champion
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Well, we were there but the end result is quite disappointing.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 06-02-2022 02:01
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After a Giro where we had something like 2 points from the stages, it's good to score on the first stage here! Good job by Resell to snatch the youth jersey, hopefully he can keep it a day or two.
Trondsen also in the mix, so all in all very happy with the start. Congrats on the win, Croatia!
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| SotD |
Posted on 06-02-2022 06:31
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World Champion
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Well done Farantakis to take 9th on the opener. It doesn’t really do anything in terms of points, but it’s nice to atleast have something to follow during the flat stages. Congrats on the favorite win croatia. It’s always great when that happens. Also another great outing by Bertilsson who’s definately amount the top 3 all time underrated subsprinters in the game.
Also looks like a fun party the Puma lads had at the back.
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| redordead |
Posted on 06-02-2022 11:41
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Lovely to see someone put together the correct sprint train and having it pay off. Congrats Croatia
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 06-02-2022 15:42
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Resell with the very first attack of the race. AND he gets to wear a leader's jersey. Love to see it.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 06-02-2022 16:07
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Here we go This race has the potential to become very tense! I'd say Madrazo, Tenorio and Taaramäe have somewhat equal chances to win.
Madrazo will probably end week 1 with a TT induced deficit to all other big GC contenders. So he'll need to distance some people in the mountains at least once or twice. Hard, but not impossible.
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| roturn |
Posted on 06-02-2022 16:19
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Minali yet again with a nice performance. 2nd GT in a row, which is his main job this season on loan. Just like in the Giro that he even participates in sprints is already a big bonus. Seeing him having his 3rd or 4th top10 in total already, which means some points, this is pretty cool.
Hopefully he can continue like this until at one point again dropping out of the time limit.
Congrats croatia. Strongest rider won in the end. Good start. |
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