Aru hasn't been an FA for a long time but I think his wage bid initally was very high (please correct if wrong). I think it most have went down since then, esp given that he also has ridden in CT for at least two seasons. The same can be said for Barguil btw who was arguably the best rider in 2018 at least. Since both had quite good 2018 and 2019 campaigns, the effect of lowering wages through renewals must be low anyway.
I tink whilst some rider wages go up with renewals and some riders wage go down, I think it is good that managers have to deal with the consequence of their initial bidding for a longer time than they may anticipate, and may have to significantly pay more than other managers if they were willing to bid that cash in the first round, they may also have to bid that cash in the subsequent renewals. Once you give someone a cake he will unlikely want to go back to only bread.
FYI, Bananito was a very high initially by jaxika, who then had to trade the rider to knockout who traded him for Contador the season afterwards; this is the first season now where I feel I don't dramatically overpay for Betancur tbh. So in some cases the system may favour one (Kittel, Herrada) and in others it doesn't (Quintana, Bananito). All in all I think it works quite well and I think that the active transfer and bidding off season went better than any season previously, also due to the lack of steals.
Edited by Shonak on 27-02-2021 17:17
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
People had the option to pay more to nab someone up early, or wait and take a chance on their requested wage lowering. The system worked to serve its purpose quite well I think, those who were willing to shell out the cash could lock down big stars earlier, and those who gambled on time could make some deals later on. This system doesn't make sense for everyone to 'float up to market value rates', because market value rates are not consistent based on the circumstances of a signing. When UU bought Quintana for thousands knew what they were doing, they wanted a lock on a big star that they valued higher than anyone else. Myself who low-balled my leaders, I also knew what I was doing - I wasn't reliant on any specific riders and so I took a chance for lower wages, with the knowledge that I may not get the riders I initially went for. The people who went the route of taking the time gamble shouldn't be subsequently punished for that by values artificially raising to meet an arbitrary line defined by the very few top earners. When UU said 'the market is the best indicator of relative value and therefore should be a reference point', I'm not sure what the argument they are making is - the market is already self-referential. People bid more for riders in high demand or riders who they valued highly, and the market on a whole has a pattern and a spread to it. Basing 'the market' on just the influence of the high-earners and arbitrarily deciding that the low earners are 'underpriced' - rather than just the natural and expected result of this system - is inherently not using the market as a 'reference point', it's just using part of it to police the rest. I could just as easily say that riders like Quintana are overpriced and need to sink to 'market rates' - it wouldn't make any more sense either way.
And as far as a 'premium for developing and retaining riders' goes, I would think that the costs you put into training to build up a young rider was that premium.
So my summation from that quiz is: Duo TTT event that's just a downhill when? Albini and De Grootte would carve up hopefully
Thanks for all the different content in this thread as always Ripley, really enjoy them
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
@df_trek: If anybody gets more than two right they were either lucky or they cheated. It's just some fun facts compiled to look like a quiz.
I'll start a thread to discuss potential changes when the season has started, we can maybe get back to the wage discussion. Though honestly, I think it's currently working well. I previously lobbied for higher wage demands from top stars during renewals and Bikex reacted. Rider demands are now pretty close to their "market value" - some like Tao or Kudus (renewed for 675) even go beyond that.
Well, I got 2/6 but was only ever one place away from the correct answer...
Having spent a lot of time looking at the ICL DB for a couple of years was a big advantage, but even then I was surprised by how many riders of pot 3 and below are contracted. It was the lowest option, but it's always been a small minority of riders and will probably get smaller as teams get better at scouting and natural development occurs.
jandal7 wrote:
So my summation from that quiz is: Duo TTT event that's just a downhill when? Albini and De Grootte would carve up hopefully
There was an all-downhill cobbled race a few seasons ago, but I think it was scrapped because the AI didn't handle the concept very well. Shonak, Bikex or whoever ran the simulation might be able to give you more information on that.
Well, I guessed 0 out of 6. However, I made a bit of statistics; in the DB there are 4417 riders so the 73 potential 7 ones represent 1,65%. They're quite a commodity.
Shonak wrote:
Yes, real fun is to scout them, overpay them and see them slowly becoming worthwhile from U23 to elites. It takes a few years but it's fun!
You're absolutely right. When I find such a gem in my career mode PCM games I always nurse, spoil and overpay them. I love seeing them ride and retire with my team.
Mine... My precious...
I was surprised by how many riders of pot 3 and below are contracted. It was the lowest option, but it's always been a small minority of riders and will probably get smaller as teams get better at scouting and natural development occurs.
Because only two years ago the answer was 62. So it has indeed dropped, to less than 1%, but budget restrictions mean we'll always need low wage domestiques and so I think there'll always be room for a few low potential riders, especially for team focus regions which don't produce a lot of riders.
We have four CT predictions and here's the comparison:
D2B
DF_
U U
RIP
1
Brugse Zot - Trek
3
3
2
1
2
Bosch Cycling Team
1
2
6
4
2
Equinor Pro Cycling Team
5
5
1
2
4
Magnum - Madshus
2
1
7
6
5
Shell Pro Cycling
4
7
4
3
6
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
6
6
5
8
7
Trans Cycling Team
7
8
8
7
8
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
9
4
10
13
9
Team Cymru Wales
17
13
3
5
10
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
10
10
9
12
11
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry
12
9
12
9
12
Tierra del Fuego
11
11
11
16
13
Education First x Palace - Nippo
8
12
18
15
13
Millenium - LATAM Airlines
15
14
14
10
15
Strava - ANZ
16
15
15
14
16
VIP Mobile
19
19
13
11
17
Nordea Bank - SAP
14
18
16
17
18
Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm
13
16
19
18
19
ICBC Cycling Team
18
17
17
19
20
Cadejo - Bike Xpress
20
20
D2B and df_Trek produce very similar predictions, while both Ulrich Ulriksen and I seem to be too kind to Cymru. Maybe I'll have to add some other variable to WAVG to compensate.
All agree that Brugse Zot should be promoted. D2B and df see Bosch and Magnum as the other top favourites, both are also in the running in the other two predictions. All of us are pretty bullish about Equinor, but especially Pizzaballa and Zilioli will have to do better than last year to meet the expectations. There's also some pressure on Shell to finally perform after only finishing 14th last season - with the same squad.
Polestar and Trans Cycling should be 6th and 7th in the final table, if our predictions are accurate. There's some disagreement about VisitUkraine, on average the team should make the top half of the table, but predictions vary between 4th and 13th. As already mentioned, there is an even bigger disagreement about Cymru Wales, due to two models not taking into account that the team can only sprint and do little else. They were 12th last season, that's probably a good orientation.
Pedal Africa was 7th and the team has improved, on average we think they should finish 10th this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they could beat that again. Next are Guinness and Tierra del Fuego. Equal on average are Education First and Millenium. They are followed by VIP Mobile, here WAVG might work in my favour, because Senechal can potentially score huge points, 19th by D2B and df_Trek seems too harsh. Nordea and Latvijas get very similar predictions. Bikex's pet project ICBC and the very late newcomer Cadejo find themselves at the bottom of the table.
I agree that VIP Mobile likely won't finish on the bottom, there's a leak in my system.
Brugse Zot the only team who everyone predicted as promoted in the end, let's see how we are going to waste this opportunity.
It has become a tradition, so here I am again with my U23 preview. For me personally, the scouting and training part of ICL is what makes it so much better then any other similar games we had in the past. As we did the previous years, I’m not making a ranking, but rather talk about each team individualy and give them a general idea where they should finish.
Alpine Boys
This is a new U23 team, but one that gets it right on first try. Love the nationality focus, love the team leader pot 7 Yves Charton, depth in the mountains and they even found a cobbler. It won’t be their year though, as all riders are a bit to green to really compete. But as they’re all 22 or younger with only Charton being in danger of going over 72, I really look forward to seeing them next year.
Aru4Ever
Last year’s Ceramica looked like they could be a contender this year, but while it’s a good team led by Eden, Ela and Kovlenko, all of them have to realise that there are better riders out there. These leaders have good support, but there’s no cobbler or time trialist to back them up. They could be close to the top 5 with a bit of luck, after which they’ll need a year of rebuilding with all leaders being 23.
Astana U23
Stefano Zappino needed a year to grow, but this pot 7 is ready to lead the team this year. While his main stats are mediocre, his back up stats could give him an edge over other climbers. The support is there as well, but without a sprinter or cobbler, the team can only target certain races. Upper half of the table should be where they belong, but they could get a few nice wins along the way.
Aviva Futura Project
Aviva fields the first of the 6 (yes, 6!) 72 riders in the division this year, Max Fritsch. He’s probably the best stage racer in the division with no real weaknesses. Unfortunately, the rest of the team isn’t much to talk about, aside from 19 year old pot 7 Wayne Richards who does have a very bright future ahead of him. But this year it’s definitely a one man team that will not be competing for the win.
BlackBerry
Another new team here, which is always tough to start. I have to compliment them on their Rule Britannia nationality focus, but unfortunately that’s the only good thing I can say about them this year. There’s no real leader or talent on the way, so they’ll need a lot of rebuilding to make this team competitive in the future. But seeing how their manager once handled a similar Garmin-Sharp team, I’m sure they can do it!
Bora - Argon 18 Junior Team
I accidentally called this team “discontinued” in last year’s preview, but after seeing them now, I don’t think an apology is needed. Not a single point scorer and only Scholl can think of a future as a professional cyclist. Somehow I feel this team might be abusing the system to get more budget for their main team. Anyway, it’ll be hard for them to avoid the bottom of the rankings.
Deutsche Bahn
Last year’s preview gave high hopes to Pantheras Dimas and he does not disappoint, the second 72 average and tied for fastest rider in the division will score for this team. But the strength of this team is that it has a leader on every terrain with Reuter, Ilsanker, Krautberger and Berg. Great nationality focus as well, so I’m quite happy with calling them the first title contenders of this preview.
EF Cycling
Another new team that found a good leader in Zdzz Kolodsomething, let’s call him the Polish guy. Pot 7, only 21 years old and already great stats. It will also be interesting how they train the Polish guy, this could go many ways. The rest of the team is a bit lackluster and even the Polish guy won't win much this year, so it’ll be bottom half for them I’m afraid. But the Polish guy will be really good!
Équipe Citroën
Last year I said it would be a transition year for them, and boy, have they transitioned! A team with a love of depth in every terrain, although they are lacking a real superstar. I also fear they overpayed Laugier a bit much as he is the weakest rider on the team. They will get a lot of points this year, but I fear it will be without much winning. Still, great nationality focus, this team is doing it right.
Giant Asia
I don’t know how they did it, but Barbeau did not go past 72 in the offseason, instead he finished exactly on it. Bad training or genius planning? With Wongsa and Susilo this team will dominate the hills, Won can sprint and Koejoe is a top climber. These guys will score a lot and they’re looking really good for a top 5. This team is a perfect example of building a team to a peak year.
KBC
Another new team, and this one decided to focus on time trials. But like, really focus on time trials. I’m not sure if this strategy will work with limited time trials on the calendar, but my gut feeling says it’s going to be really hard for them to avoid the lower placings, especially because they don’t have the best time trialist of the division. Still, it will be interesting to see if this tactic works in ICL.
La Fundacion
This team seems to have lost its nationality focus a bit, but they found something more rare than dragons and unicorns combined: a Spanish cobbler. Parreno may not have the highest cobble stat, but has better back up stats. Alex Ortega is a pot 7 stage racer, but I though he would get further than what he is now. The rest of the team needs some more time to grow as well, so I think it’ll be another solid top 10 for them.
LBO
So many new teams! This one has a few decent riders, with Butkus being their biggest chance of a win somewhere. I also want to call out Rubins, probably the worst rider I’ve ever seen here. I seem to recall they were a bit late to the party though, so I can forgive them for a few weaker choices. They have a core though, just need a cleanup next offseason and they’re good to continue.
Los Gauchitos
Yes, another new team, this one with superb nationality focus. And not only that, they have a few decent riders as well with Ollero standing out the most. But if you go lower on their roster, quality goes down really bad. If they can keep Ollero next year and change a few riders, they’ll have a great team next. This year I can only see them end up somewhere in the middle unfortunately.
Magnum
Did I mention we have a lot of new teams this year? Here’s another one that combines good nationality focus with good riders. Nothing really standing out, but Welter and Brundby make a good duo for the hills while Karlsson should do well on the cobbles. It could be a boring year for them with few wins but the points should come in every now and then. Another team that should be midtable.
Omroep Zeeland
Yes, you’ve guessed it, a new team! Good nationality focus again, and with actual talents. Wadsworth, Roembiak and Nijhuis are ok riders already, but if they can stay below 72 next season, this team will be title favourites if they can also get a decent cobbler and stage racer in at some point. This will be a quiet midtable season for them, but I really see it big for them next year.
Podravka Development Team
It’s really always a pleasure to see this team. Year after year they produce a Croatian focused team with good riders. This year they have Kuranty for the time trials, Maricic and Loncar for the mountains and Horvat in the sprints. Qualitywise I feel they’ve had better teams in the past, especially further down the roster the team becomes weak. Upper half should still be where they finish.
PureBlack Racing
This team has gone from horrible to great in 2 years time. Christian Lecomte is a member of the 72 club and Ross is just 1 point off. So aside from the 73 climber, they also have a 73/73 sprinter. If that wasn’t enough, Astier can do hills and cobbles alike. Even without a time trialist I can see them winning the league if their big 3 perform well, which they should with all the support they have.
Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team
Contrary to their manager’s usual philosophy, they have the best time trialist in the divison with Noah Thompson. Willems, Vanden Boer and Whittaker will score points as well on their terrains. Lastly, what do you do when you run out of climbers? You just bring one from your main team down, RIP Razic’ pro career. All in all they should get another top 5 result with this team.
Siragon
The Leopard team that finished second last year had to take a step back and with that comes a name change. Their leaders left as well so now we look at Butenko and Vega, who are decent riders but not world class. With two more pot 7 in Rasmussen and Patrikov, this will be a transition year for them, hopefully to have another shot at the title next year if they can keep everybody below 72. The talent is certainly there!
Suntory Orangina
Last year title favourites did not disappoint, dominating the division. Can they repeat? Hell yeah! They have two 72 guys with Salif Mane and Luis Crawford! If that wasn’t planned, I don’t know what is. Gochashvili is 71,9 and Saffort has the highest cobble stat of the entire division. And Wright is a pot 7 time trailer. With this team, anything but a division win will have to be considered a failure.
Team Privatbank
Another team with a name change, but the problems they had unfortunately remain. Kolesov still leads the team, but is still a mediocre rider. Kolecko had potential last year, but still has to be described as has potential this year. The team has gotten a bit better, but the major changes I wanted to see in last year’s preview did not come. Well, they changed their name, but I can see through that!
Telenor
After insulting this team last year, they definitely improved this year. Not yet to the top, but Makukhin and Smith are better riders than what they had last year. But without time trials and cobbles and Leinonen still being their main sprinter, their points will still be very few. Somewhere in the middle is the best they can do this year, but seeing where they came from, that’s definitely an improvement.
Edited by Ollfardh on 29-03-2021 14:24
Thanks, great preview once again. Fundacion doing alright hopefully, and agree on Ortega. He should have good support in the mountains though and might even be able to podium 1 or 2 mountain stage races if daily form is looking our way. With the sprinter and cobble talent, we are compensating a bit the departure of our 4 top scorers but definitely expect us to end lower half of Top 10 or upper half Top 15.
Suntory is magic and Podravka is always an enigma to me.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Nice preview, thanks! I agree that we do have some interesting riders, of course mainly Ollero, but also Urízar, and to a slightly lesser extent Espinosa and Cruz.
The drop in quality mainly comes from the talents I signed pre-transfers, as I didn't really know if those are decent or not, not really knowing the ICL DB yet. Unfortunately, the three really weak riders all are from our focus nations, but I hope to scout better replacements in the same region
Great preview! Awesome that you like our team, as with the main team the top priority was national focus and trying to get as many swiss riders and riders from the Alpine region as possible into the pro peloton. Charton actually already rode for the main team last year but will step down to U23 ranks for at least one year now. Another thing I'm really proud of is our first rider from Liechtenstein, Muller. Hopefully he'll be the first of many.
Thanks Ollfardh, a great read! Aviva Futura took a first step by increasing the number of British riders from 0 to 5 and those were the best we could find within a year. They'll all be stronger next season, but we hope we can dig up another gem or two in the meantime.
Great read, enjoyed the approach. Not sure if this makes it better or worse, but KBC had no intent to focus on time trials, but the only riders of decent potential we could find from our focus nations were all time trialists - probably because nobody values them. And then I just liked Eiber Mudd's name.
I'm happy we could stick to our nationality focus besides Dimas off course and still improve from lasts season. I doubt there's enough quality for a title push but a Top 5 will be the aim, which would be a major improvement from last year's mid-table finish. Have always enjoyed following the U23s without putting too much effort (and especially resources) into the scouting side of things, so this organic improvement is pleasing.
@ripley Thank you for this predictions comparison. As a very late entry I don't expect much of this season beside putting the foundation stone in place. However, this last place prediction warms my heart and not so much at the same time. In all my management games I've played I relish the chance of taking or creating a rock bottom team and turning it in a respectable project. It is my hope that I could do something similar here as well.
@ollfardh Thank you for this U23 preview. I currently don't have a U23 team, but the plan is to create one next season. So this season is one where I can watch from the sideline, enjoying it and trying to grasp a thing or two for this awesome looking game.
Albini and De Grootte would carve up hopefully 
