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Ronde van Nederland Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 24-12-2020 21:02
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Note that Praha - Karlovy Vary - Praha is delayed until further notice
 Ronde van Nederland
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Peter Kennaugh | Air France - KLM | | 2018 | Arnaud Demare | Team Puma - SAP |
Hallo allemaal! Welkom to the third incarnation of Ronde van Nederland. The race reverts to the format from the first edition, which contained a nice flat/hill mix, opposed to the last edition which only contained flat stages. However, there has never been a true Ronde van Nederland in my eyes. Last year's edition only featured one stage in the Netherlands, as the others took place in Belgium and France. This edition only features stages in two of the twelve provinces: Noord-Brabant and Limburg, which is quite different from the rest of the Netherlands because of their weird accent, celebrating carnaval and their insistence on saying "friet" instead of the correct "patat", even going as far as starting a digital civil war over it. You can tell this is written by someone from above the rivers. Anyway, those weird carnaval parties is the main cause of the huge spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands, and the event will be held without spectators as a result. I've been rambling for too long, let's see what this race entails!
Profiles
Stage one centers around Zuid-Limburg, with some familiar climbs such as the Cauberg on the menu. The final laps take the riders around Nuth and Schimmert, with a small hill on the lap, but the flat rating and 2018 suggest the sprinters are the main favorites here. Stage two relocates the riders to Noord-Brabant and the town of St. Willebrord, with a perfect example of profile exaggeration. The hills on the profile definitely don't exist in real life, and the sprinters will once again challenge the win. Back to Limburg for the final stage, from Eijsden to Cadier en Keer whit a small detour through funny neighbor Belgium. The race is pretty similar to Amstel Gold Race with many smaller climbs and little moments of recovering. The puncheurs are here for this stage, and it will probably be the most decisive for the GC. The race utilizes F1-style bonus seconds, suggested by Max Verstappen, with the top ten receiving 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 bonus seconds.
Startlist
| Puncheurs | HL | SP | ACC | Puncheurs | HL | SP | ACC |  De Bie | 84 | 72 | 75 |  Vakoc | 80 | 71 | 74 |  Ponzi | 83 | 75 | 79 |  Boswell | 80 | 65 | 76 |  Sagan | 83 | 73 | 76 |  Vogt | 80 | 62 | 63 |  Lutsenko | 83 | 72 | 81 |  Van Stayen | 79 | 84 | 78 |  Bobridge | 83 | 69 | 80 |  Yates | 79 | 77 | 80 |  Mohoric | 83 | 67 | 77 | Chernetskiy | 79 | 63 | 71 |  Bakelants | 82 | 71 | 75 | Reichenbach | 79 | 63 | 69 |  Van Garderen | 82 | 70 | 79 |  Bellis | 78 | 74 | 75 |  Koretzky | 81 | 71 | 79 | Gerts | 78 | 72 | 70 | | Gastauer | 81 | 66 | 75 |  Teuns | 78 | 66 | 72 | | McCarthy | 81 | 65 | 74 | Müller | 78 | 65 | 70 |  Demare | 80 | 82 | 81 |  Serry | 78 | 62 | 69 |
Hills means puncheurs, and many of them show up in the Netherlands. De Bie tops the list as only 84 HL puncheur, but his performances this season have been disappointing. He did finish sixth in this race in 2018.
Ponzi is one of the most decorated puncheurs in history and should obviously be counted as a favorite. He and Sagan are the fastest amongst the pure puncheurs, if all hilly stages go to sprints they are definitely contenders.
Lutsenko, Bobridge and Mohoric complete the pack of 83 HL. A very close field with minimal differences on paper. Anything can happen!
The strongest team is EA Vesuvio with two contenders: Van Garderen and Gastauer. Likely the latter has to work for the former but it gives the opportunity for interesting tactics. The American finished third in the first edition as best puncheur.
Other contenders on the full puncheur side are Bakelants, Koretzky and McCarthy.
The punchy sprinters Demare and Van Stayen appear in this section as well. They are the numbers one and two of the first edition, and with the same route chances of a repeat are likely. But more on them in the next section!
| Sprinters | SP | ACC | HL | Sprinters | SP | ACC | HL | | Degenkolb | 84 | 81 | 69 | Nizzolo | 80 | 79 | 64 | | Van Stayen | 84 | 78 | 79 | Goss | 80 | 75 | 65 | | Grosu | 83 | 80 | 73 | Hayakawa | 79 | 79 | 65 | | Demare | 82 | 81 | 80 |  Stallaert | 79 | 76 | 67 | | Groenewegen | 82 | 81 | 67 | Suryadi | 79 | 76 | 62 |  Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 65 | Granjel Cabrera | 79 | 75 | 68 | | Van der Lijke | 82 | 79 | 76 | Contreras | 78 | 80 | 68 | | Howard | 82 | 79 | 68 | Bouglas | 78 | 78 | 70 | | Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 64 | Aregger | 78 | 77 | 71 | | Samolenkov | 81 | 79 | 64 |  Pedersen | 78 | 77 | 69 | | Enger | 81 | 78 | 69 | Theuns | 77 | 76 | 74 |
Degenkolb appears on top in this section as best pure sprinter. He is not overly bad on the hills but he needs to shine to win the GC. Individual stage wins are nice as well.
Van Stayen and Demare are, as stated before, the best punchy sprinters and can contend on all three stages. With bonus seconds for the top ten on every stage, they can gain time on puncheurs in places where they can't challenge.
Punchy sprinters to a lesser extend are Grosu and Van der Lijke. The Romanian finished fourth in the first edition and the Dutchman has support of the home crowd, so don't count them out.
The other Dutch hope is Groenewegen, though stage three will be too difficult for him. Kennaugh is the reigning champion and won two stages last year, he might take another stage but we don't expect prolongation.
Howard took runner-up position last year but stage two is his goal this year, maybe stage one. Vanderbiest is an outsider but with the right wheel anything can happen.
Further contenders include Samolenkov, Enger and Nizzolo, though a top five is also a good result for them.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 24-12-2020 21:23
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Have no deep interest in this race but really enjoyed the explanation of inter-region rivalry in the Netherlands. Thanks for the preview and will be routing for Van Garderen as the best US rider here.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 24-12-2020 21:39
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Simon Yates is just here to steal points away from the PT teams. 
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| cio93 |
Posted on 24-12-2020 21:42
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Win goal. We've won this race before.
If we are to challenge the Top 5 teams, no excuses to not at least get very close to it again.
With Niu-Aregger being a sizeable upgrade of our sprint train from Wackermann-Felline last season, we can take responsibility in the finals if needed, although the season so far has expectedly been one for the slipstreamers.
Particularly the uphill sprint to start this race requires patience and timing, we need to get our first podium there already to start the following flatter stage with an AI advantage.
Demare knows how to win it, just use that experience.
Stage 3 shouldn't be an issue for Demare at all, looking at his second win of the '18 race there to seal the GC victory.
All he needs is a sufficient time gap to the puncheurs and most sprinters by that point, and attentive riding. None of the hills are long or steep enough to drop him on skill alone.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 05:27
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 24-12-2020 21:52
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I would like to correct Marco. Saying ´patat´ should be punishable by law, frietjes is the word everybody should use.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 24-12-2020 22:00
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Nemolito wrote:
I would like to correct Marco. Saying ´patat´ should be punishable by law, frietjes is the word everybody should use.
even going as far as starting a digital civil war over it.
Quod erat demonstrandum 
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-12-2020 22:54
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A race that could be good for us, but also could end up with nothing. Hope our guys are ready from the start and on the attack!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 25-12-2020 15:40
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Very excited to see how Grosu will do since he had good results here in both mixtures of the race. If the last stage proves to be too hard for him, I'm sure Gerts can pick up the pieces.
Merry Christmas everyone!
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 25-12-2020 16:44
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With both Bobridge and Howard in the lineup, it's a key race for obvious reasons. Not sure, if Bobridge can handle the long final stage, but would be nice to see both doing well on those days.
Thanks for the preview!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 25-12-2020 18:52
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Filler race, expecting the points you get for finishing and not much else here. Thanks for the preview!
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| ember |
Posted on 25-12-2020 22:04
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I second matt! Looking forward to see how this race plays out on such profiles, and definitely looking forward to reading it unfold 
Good work on the preview, Marco! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-12-2020 12:27
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We enjoyed the start of that stage, but not so much the ending. Weird showing from Wisniowski. Fine enough that he dropped back, but strange seeing him getting dropped. Hope he's up for a breakaway the coming days with the GC chances being cut short here.
Nice to get Kragh in the KoM as well. Hopefully he can try to defend it.
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| roturn |
Posted on 26-12-2020 12:59
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The jury there must have been wrong.
Clearly a Groenewegen win on the line. Even though 2nd behind Degenkolb is definitely a good result in our home race.
All riders including De Bie very attentive, so let`s hope, De Bie can make the difference on the hill stage and Groenewegen will be able to potentially hang on as well as he is doing from time to time.
Thanks for the report and looking forward to the next. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 26-12-2020 13:25
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Decent result from Grosu. Could have been better, could have been worse.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 26-12-2020 14:12
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Oh man, I was about to be VERY pissed off right until the last two shots.
I'm still not happy because that was an easy win if the AI had just done what it used to do and kept Demare in the slipstream, but at least we got decent seconds and are just 5 seconds off the lead if we consider Dege and Groenewegen too weak for stage 3.
And obviously, we handily achieved the only real goal, to finish ahead of MvS.
Demare needs to add decent bonus seconds tomorrow, to separate him from the puncheurs and keep the sprinters ahead in reach if we get a weird final stage.
Most importantly, he just needs to start his sprint when everyone else does.
Why is that such a difficult thing for so many riders lately??
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 26-12-2020 17:00
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Important race for the team!
Unfortunate that the uphill sprint wasn't enough to prevent Degenkolb and Groenewegen, but at least Van der Lijke properly went for it on the incline, and 3rd is still a nice outcome.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 26-12-2020 17:10
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Promising start for Bobridge, which may be crucial eventually. If he hangs on in the final stage, those bonifications would be handy. Howard with a no-show however. The second stage should suit him better though.
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| knockout |
Posted on 27-12-2020 11:14
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This was a race where we had a podium strongly in mind. Which makes it hard to accept how badly the first stage went with Van Stayen barely showing an interest in the sprint.
Second stage was much better. In the end Van Stayen needed 2-3m more and after a perfect delivery by everyone else that could have been easily possible. But he got some bonus seconds and can possibly move a bit higher on the final stage. However, the performance of the rest of the team was fantastic. Everyone who knows me can imagine how i felt when Stoltz forced that crack to open and every single Evonik starter was ahead of that crack. We ended up a bit unlucky that Dzama narrowly missed a small time bonification which vould have been huge for the final GC.
Good sprint coverage!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 27-12-2020 11:46
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We have zero expectations here.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 27-12-2020 11:48
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What a shit sprint that was from Grosu.
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