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Ras Tailteann Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 02-12-2020 10:26
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Grand Tour Champion
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 Ras Tailteann
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Mark Cavendish | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 2018 | Matthew Goss | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 2016 | Óscar Avelino | Prio - Porto | | 2015 | Danilo Kupfernagel | Karcher-Adira | | 2013 | Marco Minnard | Team Gazelle | | 2012 | William Ford | Oz Cycling Project | | 2011 | Frank Schleck | Vesuvio-Accumalux | | 2010 | Giovanni Visconti | Team Starbucks | | 2009 | Timothy Duggan | Slipstream |
Ten candles on the cake for Ras Tailteann, the prime Irish stage race hosting its tenth edition. The first edition was in 2009, and was held every year with intermissions in 2014 and 2017. The winners list is very diverse, as the race has undergone many transformations in division, length and profiles. We will see an eleventh winner of the race as all previous winners have either retired, race at an higher level or are simply no longer interested due to route changes. While previously containing time trials and hills, and held over eight days, the past two editions have been three, purely flat stages. This recipe is kept for this season, except the race is downgraded to C2. Not a crime, the Continental Tour has some strong sprinters and the three dashes to the finish line will no doubt be exciting.
Profiles
Three flat stages. Not pancake flat, there is some undulation on the way to the finish lines, but nothing which should worry the sprinters or invite puncheurs. The stages use the F1-style bonus seconds, which means the first ten finishers receive 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 bonus seconds respectively. The stages also contain intermediate sprints worth 3-2-1 seconds, one such sprint on the second stage and three on the others. There is no mountains classification, so the attackers will have less to fight for.
Startlist
| Team | Sprinter | SP | ACC | Leadout | SP | ACC |  Andorra | Awang | 79 | 83 | Kireva | 70 | 73 |  Aramco | Fonseca | 78 | 77 | Tewelde | 78 | 77 |  Bralirwa | Selig | 79 | 81 | Habtom | 77 | 78 |  Carlsberg | Kragh Andersen | 81 | 77 | Bertilsson | 79 | 77 |  Centovalli | Reinhardt | 79 | 84 | Cisse | 78 | 77 |  Eddie Stobart | Thorsen | 79 | 80 | Bogdanovics | 78 | 77 |  Gjensidige | Kip | 79 | 80 | Ratto | 75 | 73 |  Glanbia | Bennett | 79 | 79 | King | 78 | 73 |  Guave | Coutinho | 79 | 80 | Yamamoto | 78 | 78 |  Lierse | Mareczko | 78 | 77 | Sajnok | 70 | 70 |  Los Pollos | Guillen | 80 | 80 | Manarelli | 79 | 79 |  McCormick | Keough | 79 | 79 | Frankovic | 74 | 76 |  Nordica | Carsi | 80 | 82 | Martinelli | 78 | 78 |  Sotto | Pelucchi | 79 | 77 | Consonni | 74 | 77 |  Strava | Bouhanni | 80 | 77 | Colbrelli | 79 | 75 |  Trans | Salleh | 80 | 80 | Mezgec | 79 | 77 |  Tryg | Krieger | 79 | 79 | Nommela | 74 | 74 |
Every team has one or multiple contenders for the sprint. We'll be discussing them in a random order. Let's roll the dice...
Strava first. Bouhanni and Colbrelli are strong sprinters, but their acceleration is a bit mediocre. Finding the right wheel to follow will help them gain speed.
The opposite is the case for Centovalli's leader Reinhardt, who might not be the fastest sprinter but has a huge acceleration. Add Cisse as secondary sprinter and you have a dangerous duo.
The home crowd cheers for Glanbia and their lead sprinter Bennett. He has the best historic result amongst all the lead sprinters here, seventh in 2016.
However, the alleged leadout of Trans Cycling Team, Mezgec, finished sixth the year before. Will he call rank over Salleh or does the manager have a problem here?
A statistical analysis means arbitrary decisions have to be made in case of ties. Aramco has Fonseca and Tewelde who are equal in about everything, alphabetical order designated the former to be team leader.
Stats don't say everything either. Thorsen appears as leader but he might be one of the few to struggle with the hills. The manager of Eddie Stobart might be better off focusing on Bogdanovics or the unmentioned Cimolai.
A team without leadership struggles is Andorra. Awang is their only sprinters, the others are there to support or gather experience.
Sticking with PCT teams, Lierse. They can only participate with B-squads, which gives Mareczko the rare opportunity to lead a race.
Ireland is not known to be very sunny, which makes Sotto il Sole di Riccione's participation a bit ironic. Nevertheless, Pelucchi can sprint in any weather.
Another team with two options: Los Pollos Hermanos. Guillen or Manarelli? Or both at the same time?
The best sprinter in the field, purely statistical of course, is Kragh Andersen of Carlsberg. However, cycling doesn't take place on paper but on a road, and being the best doesn't mean you'll win.
Coutinho, Yamamoto, Feiereisen could all be team leader. Unfortunately for them, they all ride for Guave's Sunlight Factory, so two of them have to work for the third.
The unlucky thirteenth mention goes to Nordica and Carsi. Hopefully they aren't superstitious, but it would be an easy excuse if they lose the race.
Tryg would be alphabetically last so let's not mention them last this time. Krieger might not be the biggest favorite, but the underdog role brings less pressure.
Three to go. Selig is the sprinter for Bralirwa. He finished twenty-fifth for his previous employer Delvaux in the last edition, as highest ranked rider mentioned in this preview. Improvement is expected.
McCormick took a stage last year with Holloway, but he dominates the ProTour now. Up to Keough to follow in his footsteps.
Last but not least is Gjensidige. Every time I see Kip on the startlist I get hungry, because his name means chicken in Dutch. Since I'm done here, let me get some chicken.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 02-12-2020 10:42
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World Champion
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I thought Mareczko would actually be a good option for C2 races, but sprinter stat inflation is so bad every CT team has a better sprinter. I'll probably end up cheering for Pelucchi in the end 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 02-12-2020 10:45
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Classics Specialist
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I think I have one of the weaker sprinter teams here with Guillén and Manarelli and only Baugnies as a possible lead-out. You never know in a sprint of course, strange things can happen. I can already imagine Katrasnik winning a stage or coming very close again 
If I have to guess and there will be three sprints, then I think the winners will be Reinhardt, Kragh Andersen and Carsi. Good luck to everyone and thank you Marco for the preview 
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| MacC |
Posted on 02-12-2020 11:03
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
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Time for an Irish winner!
I'd take a top 5 though looking at the start list |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 02-12-2020 12:03
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
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First on the dice, first over the line. Go Strava! Thanks Marcovdw for the preview, looking forward to the race
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 02-12-2020 12:23
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Directeur Sportif
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One of three C2 races that we decided to skip. So it's time to relax and see the others complain about bad sprint AI
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 02-12-2020 15:07
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Tour de France Champion
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Well, it can't go worse than Great Ocean RR... actually, it can. Please don't let it. I'm not tempting PCM fates anymore with sprints.
Hard to be optimistic at all, but we've sent an A sprinter with an A leadout here. Not much else we can do.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 02-12-2020 16:15
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Time for Reinhardt to show his speed on CT level. He definitely isn't among those with the highest top speed, nor does he have great resistance, but we provide him a well proven leadout with Stocker and Cissé, so there are no excuses for not performing! Except for the well-known random PCM sprint AI, of course...
Realistically, AKA and Carsi should stand above the rest, but then anything is possible.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 02-12-2020 18:01
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Well, it can't go worse than Great Ocean RR... actually, it can. Please don't let it. I'm not tempting PCM fates anymore with sprints.
For me, it's kind of the opposite, it hardly can go any better - literally just with a win. Not something that I expect, of course, but indeed more than a 25th should be the goal for Selig. And it's going to be a great litmus test for what we can expect for the rest of the season in the CT competition. We'll also find out if Habtom actually works as a leadout. Much interesting stuff to look forward to Thanks for the thorough preview marco!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 02-12-2020 23:41
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cunego59 wrote:
And it's going to be a great litmus test for what we can expect for the rest of the season in the CT competition.
My thinking exactly, first real test of the continental sprinters, Hoping Keough's balanced stats play well. Not expecting the second coming of Holloway, just some competitive sprinting.
Doubt he is in the top 3 judged by the AI so will be surfing wheels, which is what I prefer. Although would be nice to get a first shot of Frankovic in McCormick's first ever NC jersey.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:25
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 03-12-2020 00:06
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We'll need some Kastrasnik magic here.
Good luck everybody!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:14
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Bit of a weird sprint. It still remains to be seen whether it was a good idea to send Habtom and Selig here (and to some other races). Either Selig wasn't closer to the front because Habtom was there, or he would have been either way and Habtom saved the day (although in such a tight finish, 4th of those 4 next to each other is almost a bit disappointing. Or maybe unfortunate, rather). It's good to see that we're working at the front of the peloton though, which hopefully means the game has at least one of our guys as a stage favorite.
The GC could be tricky now, depending on if we go all in for Habtom or if Selig reassumes leader duties in the next stage. And then, it's fantastic for Samuel Mugisha to take the youth classification at least for the day. Just great to see the young guys stepping up all over the place, and we'll gladly take those points as well.
Oh, and also pretty cool to see Cisse up there, congrats Fabianski (and hillis for the win of course  )
Edited by cunego59 on 03-12-2020 11:15
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:14
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World Champion
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Yay, bonus seconds!
Congrats hillis, your magic summoning ritual worked!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:20
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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So far CT sprints look like a complete crapshoot.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:22
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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Wow my sprinter of last year Kip taking a big W and Awang taking third, almost winning today, great signs that he may just take glory in this race, would be very important he did!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:36
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Classics Specialist
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Interesting to see Guillen try (and fail miserably) and Manarelli just chilling, even though he could probably do better. Not looking too great for the other sprinting races we will be in this year, but I had already figured that out
Gjensidige for the CT title! Thank you, Marco, you deserve some more kip this evening.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:39
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
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Wow, Bouhanni really sucked in this sprint. What is clear to me already, one sprinter is easily enough in any race since the other sucks anyway.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:42
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Domestique
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Another bad result for my team. I hope that there will be soon the light at the end of the tunnel. 
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-12-2020 11:53
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Really nice to see our former amateur rider Ismael Kip perform this well, and to take a massive amount of points home. Also interesting to see another former amateur Tewelde do well.
If nothing else the amateur teams provided some healthy information on which riders could potentially be a low waged succesful rider given the right conditions.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 03-12-2020 13:14
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Team Leader
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@Ollfardh: Cheers!
@SotD: Delivering on a 0 wage is also worth noting
What an absolute shocker! Did NOT expect this, but we sure as sh** take it
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