- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
There's a competitive field in the hills this season, with no huge standout rider or team, and close gaps between the tiers.
Polar come top with Izagirre and Betancourt to call on.
Schreurs for GCN, Buchmann for Mapei see them next - Campari are interesting team in 4th then, very much there for having two possible options in Slagter, and then Di Maggio as 2nd.
Beltran is seen as the top individual rider but Swisslion suffer for the lack of support he has - and that's something that could well influence the racing too, if they are expected to chase down moves.
One interesting thing to note though - Philips would top this tier list still, with Kelderman. Watch out for the C1 races there then!
Stage Races
Desigual
Team Popo4Ever
MOL
Fablok
Bakkafrost
Duolingo
Farfetch
Repsol
Lierse
Minions
Three teams top the tree here. Tenorio now looks to be the strongest in the division, and Desigual are top. Pluchkin remains a commanding threat, and he has Padun for support. MOL bring Cattaneo and Choi together.
A range of teams then competing in the next tier down - with hopes for the likes of Wellens, Monsalve, Gesink, Kudus and Oomen - while Farfetch have the comparable pairing of Yates and Carthy.
Sprints
Berg Cycles
Podium Ambition
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo
MOL
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Nordstrom
Swisslion
Bakkafrost
Xero Racing
Mapei
Adastra
Berg Cycles have brought in Swift to go with Silvestre, and this partnership gives them the edge over Caleb Ewan's Podium Ambition.
Gaviria and Bonifazio should be good options for Lierse, while MOL can call on Lo Cicero and Maksimov - fast, but can they be consistent?
Kemboi, Guarnieri, Guerao and Kump the other top rated individuals, and their teams do come next.
Time Trials
Repsol - Netflix
Desigual
Mapei
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Polar
Duolingo
GCN Racing
DK - SVA Zalgiris
Minions
With Zmorka, Kittel and Gonzalez Salas, it is no surprise to see Repsol top the standings here.
Fraile is well-rated for Desigual, while Fiedler is the star for Mapei.
4th is not particularly close to 1st in this tier, but in there are Farfetch, with Paillot, just ahead of other teams with some credible TT options.
Cobbles
Andorra Cycling Project
Podium Ambition
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo
Mapei
Valio - Viking Genetics
Minions
Bakkafrost
Xero Racing
Repsol - Netflix
So determined where Andorra to stand out on the cobbles, that they were willing to spend big money to prevent a PCT rival from signing Vanspeybrouck, bringing him in alongside Summerhill. Having two of the top three riders clearly works well for a tier list like this, but will it work well in the season itself?
Altur's leadership puts Podium Ambition into the next tier, infront of Lierse (Vanbilsen) and Trentin (Mapei). The support options for Daniel also help Valio into the Top 5.
Climbs
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
MOL
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Desigual
DK - SVA Zalgiris
Repsol - Netflix
Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
Kraftwerk Man Machine
This category prioritises more of the mountain-only ability, as well as depth in that terrain - as a rider can't be seen as a team's best rider in this category if they are the best in another category. It has the smallest weighting of the six to overall predictions, and might not make as much sense in isolation - but I'll include it for completeness!
Carthy, Padun, Choi, Nerz and Intxausti are the top riders ranked #1 in their team for this category, and supported by their respective team leader, are key for their teams featuring here.
R1 and R2 of my overall ranking positions are just based around those last specific position ranks, while R3 and R4 look at the rating scores awarded to teams across those categories.
The next graph shows R3 against R4, and gives a suggestion for an overall tier list.
Six teams emerge as favourites for the five promotion positions. Within that, Farfetch are predicted to win the title, but MOL are also looking strong for what could be their best ever season.
Mapei being the 3rd team, also with Desigual, Popo4Ever and Lierse.
Minions then seen as being around 7th, just ahead of a very close looking midfield - with lots of evenly matched teams.
Across the predictions, there are seven teams seen as being in the relegation fight. Campari, Valio, Aramco, Nordstrom, Adastra, Azteca, and Andorra.
As Top 10 finishers last year, this would be disappointing for Valio and Campari I would imagine - and in the overall prediction, they are seen as the last two to survive. Campari were predicted to relegate last year anyway, so there is that!
Indeed, if last year's predictions are anything to go by, there could well be a mix of teams predicted close to their eventual positions, and some certainly not. But will that be your team? We shall have to see what the season brings.
Always enjoy these! Obviously not a whole lot to say about us, with good reason, I do think that your assesment of us is correct however doomy it is.
Edited by whitejersey on 01-11-2020 19:32
As I've expected in the previews - a fight with Aramco, Nordstrom, Valio and Campari. What surprises me is that Azeteca isn't the consensus bottom feeder this time around
You've got us clear of the real dogfight in most cases, and even up towards promotion in one! I'll take it as further vindication to double down on the dual-focus this season ahead of a bigger change up.
Always interesting to see your previews SN and nice touch with the tier lists for each terrains this year - glad to get on a few Another ninth place prediction does instill a bit of confidence in my Top 10 Standings goal, but when it's ahead of Duolingo and Repsol it gets taken away a bit - especially as we all know what Repsol are willing to do to us if we're rankings rivals
Glad we're not in any kind of relegation fight in your different methods, even a promotion candidate in Round 1 is pretty impressive, though pure fantasy in my eyes
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
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Not a surprise being so low in this ranking given i completely ignore two terrains, so that really drag us down in your calculations, despite being Top10 at least in all the others.
Really hope this predictions turns out to be awfully bad
TheManxMissile wrote:
You've got us clear of the real dogfight in most cases, and even up towards promotion in one! I'll take it as further vindication to double down on the dual-focus this season ahead of a bigger change up.
Aquarius97 wrote:
Not a surprise being so low in this ranking given i completely ignore two terrains, so that really drag us down in your calculations, despite being Top10 at least in all the others.
I have looked to account for teams ignoring terrains in there - especially in not unduly punishing teams who ranked are >18th in a terrain, when it comes to R3 and R4 - so indeed that's what helps keep Podium Ambition clear of relegation predictions.
Repsol though probably not faring quite as well in R4 due to the fact that I have TTs on one of the lowest weightings of the categories - so if that goes well for you, perhaps that weighting should be adjusted!
sgdanny wrote:
Mathematical previews are pretty bad with only 1 big leader in the team, so i expect more than 17th
Well you do have 97 RD without Wellens, and no guarantee that Wellens will start as favourite for any of his races, depending on the calendars of others. So we'll see!
I always like the data-based predictions SN, and I enjoyed this one even if I think it's putting a curse on my team
Have to say that it's great to see us being top 7 on every terrain except cobbles. One of the things I've tried to do over the past few seasons is build a roster with no real superstars but plenty of depth on each terrain, so it's a real vindication to see it appear to have worked. Hopefully with Menten, Salzmann and van den Berg maxing next season we can be top 10 on the cobbles as well, although the data seems to think we'll be PT - in which case I'll need to add leaders to that depth!
However, I don't think PCM will like my team as much as the numbers do. The lack of a real top tier leader on any terrain is likely to hold us back a little, especially as we don't have the depth that other teams do - we're very similar to ISA last season, until you realise that they had 8 point scorers in every race, compared to our 4 (with 4 talents). Still, if we can do our usual trick of missing our predicted slot by 3-5 places then we should be in for a decent season.
Another ninth place prediction does instill a bit of confidence in my Top 10 Standings goal, but when it's ahead of Duolingo and Repsol it gets taken away a bit - especially as we all know what Repsol are willing to do to us if we're rankings rivals 
