Most definetely agree with your assesment of us, it's really down to Kump to have the best season of his life and then good depth scoring elsewhere, the formula almost worked last time around, hope that Kump's excellence is enough to keep us up and able to rebuild next year!
fintas wrote:
Very interesting reading so far. I'm curious to see where you put my team.
Mapei clearly a favorite at the top of the table, I just don't know if I would put MOL as runner-up, unfortunately Catteneo has had a clear tendency to fail in recent seasons.
Yeah, his hill stat is a problem with how the mo/hill mechanics works in PCM18, and this is much of the reason why I think they could fall down the rankings a bit if their planning isn't top notch. Thing is, with 80 resistance, he's such a good time trialist that I think he could score really well if his race calendar is designed in a way that puts more weight on his TTing ability than his climbing ability. That way he also won't affect Choi's scoring as much.
A hard team to predict in any case, and I anticipated that this pick would spark a bit of controversy
ok ok... 4th is still available... I'll take that! too many places are wide open at the bottom though will I be mid-table like with Ollfardh's preview... I hope so
Lierse took a step in the right direction last year after narrowly avoiding relegation the year before. With key riders being maxed in the off-season, the Belgian team looks set to improve further on last season's 17th place.
The strongest area of the team must surely be considered the sprinter department, as Fernando Gaviria and Niccolo Bonifazio has both turned into incredibly strong riders. Though his top speed is below that of riders like Ewan and Swift, Gaviria has the best resistance and flat of all the 81+ sprinters, only Maksimov matches his acceleration and only Kump goes better uphill. As a result of this, Gaviria stands out as one of the strongest sprinters of the division and is in my opinion perhaps only weaker than Podium Ambition's Caleb Ewan. With a combination of 79 flat, 75 resistance and 80 sprint, Bonifazio should be a brilliant lead-out and a good leader for the few flat races where Gaviria won't ride. The game seemed to think well of high flat-sprinters last season, however his scoring potential will be lowered as a result of having Gaviria ahead of him in the pecking order. Jakub Mareczko should be a very good lead-out for Bonifazio and Gaviria, but being the only other 75+ sprinter in the squad, it also means Gaviria will be on his own if he and Bonifazio occasionally splits leading duties.
Sam Oomen scored a very decent 415 points last year and will undoubtedly do even better this year after his stat increase, although the competition is also slightly tougher. With 80 mountain, 75 hill, 74 TT, 77 prologue and good back-ups, Oomen is one of the most well-rounded climbers of the division and should score very well - especially as he's still eligible for youth classifications as the only 78+ climber in the division. Senni, Kolar and De Plus will provide excellent support and depth scoring, with the latter also being the team's leader in the hills. Although his mountain/hill combination is pretty good at 76/78, his back-up stats are a bit weak. Similar riders like Paulinho, Serry and Boily only scoured a couple of hundred points each last season, so De Plus is perhaps unlikely to score much more than that.
While the team lacks a leader in time trials, they do have one for the northern classics, in Belgian rider Kenneth Vanbilsen. Vanbilsen was Lierse's best scorer last year and is undoubtedly one who should do well this year as well, being the 80+ cobbler with the highest speed on the flats next to Summerhill and the best stamina. Isaac Bolivar meanwhile, should provide great support for the strongman.
With the quality Lierse has got for stage races, sprints and northern classics, this team is not far from being a promotion contender in my opinion, but they might be lacking a little bit in depth to make that a reality already this season. Prediction: 11th place.
Kraftwerk Man Machine
Manager: DaveTwoBob Last season: 13th [PCT]
At 27 riders, Kraftwerk brings a huge squad to the 2020 season. Their highest rated rider has an OVL of just 76.16, but there is strength in numbers and depth.
Last season, Mark Cavendish brought in big points for Kraftwerk and massively helped his team avoid a relegation battle. Now the Isle of Man-sprinter is 34 however, and he's lost a lot of his top speed and acceleration. At 81/78 sprint/acceleration he's still good enough get some good results, but it's unlikely that he'll be anywhere near the 806 points he gathered last year. Cav's decline could open up more freedom for Marco Haller, who has better resistance and acceleration, but also he lacks the top speed to really challenge for big results.
For the mountains and hills, it seems like Kraftwerk has an entire squad's worth of point scorers. Nerz, De la Cruz, Kiserlovski and Geniez could all be expected to score >100 points in mountainous stage races, and the same goes for Bilbao, Moazemi, Klemme, Denz and perhaps even Scheit and Bol in hilly races. A challenge for Kraftwerk however, is that none of the mentioned riders stands out as major point scorers. Nerz is a good climber at 80 mountain, but he lacks the punch that's needed to get big results. Bilbao on the other hand possesses that punch and has great stamina, but he lacks the climbing ability to compete with the best puncheurs. He is however one of the riders who stands to benefit from changes to hill stages this season.
Eugert Zhupa will take charge in the northern classics, and with 78 stamina and 74 sprint, he can be expected to perform slightly better than the average 77 cobbler. Lucas Schädlich is meanwhile Kraftwerk's best time trialist, but much like the leaders in other terrains, he lacks the back-up stats to really compete at the top level. A rider like Gonzales Cortes is also a pretty good TTer, which coupled with a fine hill and mountain stat should see him bring in some points.
Kraftwerk might not see any of their riders scoring much more than 3-400 points this season, but I count as many as 19 riders who could score in the vicinity, or above, 100 points. Not many teams can showcase that kind of depth, and I think we'll see Kraftwerk end up safe at a mid-table position because of that. Prediction: 14th place.
GCN Racing
Manager: the_hoyle Last season: 3rd [CT]
Another huge squad of 27 riders. Much like Kraftwerk, GCN will hope strength in depth and numbers will help them to a mid-table position. I'm not convinced the squad is strong enough to achieve that, however.
Maurice Schreurs has been brought in from Bakkafrost, and the puncheur could quickly become GCN's best scoring rider this year. Schreurs is one of the riders who stands to benefit the most from hill stage design changes and less competition with his strong finish and stamina. Only Di Maggio and Claeys has a higher hill stat, but with worse back-up stats, both will struggle to be at Scheurs' level. With a mountain stat of only 69, riders like Beltran, Buchmann and Paulinho is likely to heavily outscore him, however. Dowsett, Landa, Nzeke and Hategeka will provide good support, but all lack the resistance to contribute with the depth scoring you would expect from riders with similar hill stats.
In the sprints, Kenji Itama has taken over leadership responsibility from Erik Mohs, who despite a sprint stat of 80 is unlikely to play a significant role this season, having seen his resistance fall to 59 in the off-season. Itami meanwhile, is a quick sprinter at 80/82 sprint/acceleration, but also he lacks the resistance to score major points in PCT. He scored 269 points for Rakuten last year, which should reflect his potential fairly well. Matthews and Vingerling will likely get a few opportunities for themselves in smaller races, but both must be said to lack the speed, acceleration and resistance required to score major results. Scott Thwaites meanwhile, could prove to be a useful rider with his abilities on the cobbles and could benefit somewhat from lower rated cobbles sections with his great finish. Moulingui should also contribute with decent scoring in those races.
Jesse Sergent meanwhile, is the best time trialist in the team. With a fantastic flat stat of 79 and pretty good resistance, Sergent should be expected to score reasonably well, but he will struggle to compete with riders like Zmorka and Fiedler. In the mountains, Jarlinson Pantano will take charge, but with a lack of punch and just okay back-up stats, the Colombian will struggle to score a lot of points.
GCN has some good leaders in their squad, but none of them can be considered among the very best in their categories and despite having a big team, a lot of their supporting riders lacks the back-up stats to contribute with meaningful depth scoring. I think GCN might have just enough about them to stay up this season, but I fear that they will struggle. Prediction: 21st place.
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Manager: jph27 Last season: 18th [PT]
Monsalve, Cattaneo and McCarthy has been sold after the relegation from PT, but Farfetch has retained enough quality to be in the reckoning for promotion.
Having maxed in the off-season, Hugh Carthy looks set to take over the leadership responsibility in the mountains. Carthy is not a particularly good time trialist, but has good back-up stats and a decent punch that should see him score well so long as he can avoid stage races with long TT's. At times, Carthy may pair up with Adam Yates to form a strong climbing duo. With 79 stamina and 80 resistance, Yates should be expected to perform better than the average 79 climber and with 76 hill and acceleration, he also possesses a nice punch. Frederico Figueiredo should also provide good support for the duo, which I can see scraping together well over 1000 points for Farfetch this season.
Anthony Turgis and Ruben Guerreiro will target the hilly races, where the latter should benefit from a good mountain stat of 76. I expect Turgis to have the highest potential of the two, however, largely due to high to high stamina, resistance, acceleration and fighter stat. The French rider is somewhat reminiscent of Cyril Gautier, who had success with his daring attacks in PCT last season and scored an impressive 785 points. Alberto Bettiol should also contribute with decent depth scoring for Farfetch.
Salem Kemboi has seen his sprint stat bumped from 79 to 80, and with great speed on the flats and high resistance, he should be among the better scoring sprinters of the division. A prologue stat of 81 is also highly useful for a sprinter of his caliber, although the scoring potential associated with prologues in itself is quite low. Kemboi's prologue stat is in fact better than the one of the team's own time trial specialist Yoann Paillot. Paillot makes up for that by being much better at longer time trials however, and he's also a fairly decent climber, which should help with his scoring. Other riders worthy of a mention are Van der Sande, who should be a great option for slightly hilly sprints, and Van den Berg who could score some points in the northern classics the team will participate in.
Farfetch lacks a little bit in depth compared to some of the other top teams of the division, and much due to this I'm not fully convinced that they will promote. However, the roster is full of quality riders with great back-up stats that should see them perform better than they're main stat suggests, so I certainly expect them to mount a proper challenge. Prediction: 7th place.
Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
Manager: sgdanny Last season: 21st [PT]
Two of last season's major point scorers, Simone Ponzi and Andrea Guardini, has left Fablok in the off-season. Without them, bouncing back to the PT could become a tough task.
Much is now on Tim Wellens' shoulders, who at 82 mountain, 79 stamina and 80 resistance, must be considered as one of the very best climbers of the division. I would expect him to improve by a good margin on the 554 points he scored in PT last year, however he will struggle to score at the same level as more complete stage racers like Pluchkin, Tenorio and Gesink. In terms of depth, Hacecky, Reaileanu, Poljanski, and Bernard will provide great support for Wellens, and with the latter three being great puncheurs as well, they should contribute with good depth scoring especially in stage races that combines mountains and hills.
Another rider who possesses those same skills in mountains and hills, is Tiesj Benoot. With 76 in cobbles, Benoot however has an additional ace up his sleeve that no other rider can match. Seeing as this is Benoot's first season as a maxed rider, it is a bit of an unknown how he will fare. I would expect him to score quite well, however as he's not at the top level in terms of pure climbing, punch or cobbles ability and there isn't a whole lot of races that combine all of those three terrains, he runs the risk of scoring somewhat mediocre results in most races he attends. It'll be very interesting to see how the season plays out for him.
As for sprints and time trials, these are areas where Fablok might struggle to get good results. Grzegorz Stepniak is their best sprinter, but at 79/79 sprint/acceleration, he'll never be considered as more than an outsider for the races he lines up in. Roy Goldstein is a pretty good time trialist, but doesn't have good enough back-up stats to be a major point scorer. Despite their weaknesses in these terrains however, Fablok has a squad where most riders are at a level where they are capable of scoring at least a few points in their preferred terrain, and across 22 riders, that adds up to a meaningful amount.
Fablok has a deep squad and a big point scorer in Tim Wellens, but lacks the leadership material in other terrains for me to consider them as a serious promotion challenger. With a good season from Benoot, I could see them make a push towards a place inside top 10, however. Prediction: 10th place.
I think that's a spot on analysis of my team, so really happy you rate us this high! The only downside is that the rating difference with promotion spots is quite high and with the relegation spots rather low.
Really great in depth analysis of the PCT teams, an interesting and informative read and big thanks for taking this on.
Your review of Kraftwerk agrees with my own opinion. I don’t see anyone on the team scoring more than 300 points. My expectations of scoring depth are a little lower and I hope I am wrong and Kraftwerk achieve our Top 15 goal!
To keep track of progress during the season my season preview (to be published soon) has an expected points tracker to measure how I am doing each month against a “safe†points total of 2300. Looking forward to being proved too pessimistic
I would be very happy with 10th honestly. Depth at the cost of strong leaders has been the way this year for us. Benoot does have a fun race calendar let me tell you, he was so fun to plan with. Cause he'll participate as co-leader in 2 mtn/hill races, our main leader in the hilly cobbles and our main leader in the hills.
Wellens vs Kudus will be the fun duel to watch all season and while I couldnt fit many races into Wellens' calendar, its just a hope of planning correctly and a bit of luck.
Also I didnt really have any intentions of going into the PT again, so this season will be experimental for a reason. See if Benoot is future leader material and how a harder recruiting policy for backup riders might be able to help. Also experimenting with participation in the Tour of America. I chose to go there, cause 1) Ive never tried it and 2) those 21 race days weren't really worth attention of alternative races, where it would be up to lucky breaks to get points there. So might aswell try and give it a shot.
Pretty much spot on with my team analysis... Fingers crossed we can score well in some races, and know that some areas of the team could be all or nothing in their points scoring.
I'll take 21st if it was offered to me now, but hopefully we can push on further from there, as our aging squad will be needing a big rebuild in the next few seasons...
Love reading those previews. PCT is always an interesting division and easily missing the full picture here and there myself, so reading though your team previews with lots of details and insight such as looking on specific stats and combinations helps a lot to rate the teams.
Also nice to see you compared the old vs. the new team as well to see how transfers changed teams from 2018.
Duolingo has lost three of their four best scorers from last season, but they've also made several interesting signings which they'll hope can propel them towards promotion.
Robert Gesink replaces Rafael Reis as the team's leading stage racer, and although the Dutch rider has turned 34, he must surely be considered a massive upgrade in the short-term. With 81 mountain, 79 hills, 78 TT and fine back-up stats, he's one of the most well-rounded stage racers in PCT, perhaps only second to Justo Tenorio. If he can fully utilize his advantage in the hills however, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gesink in the near vicinity of the Spaniard and Pluchkin in the individual rankings at the end of the season. Min, Hiratsuka, Goh and Barbio will provide valuable support for Gesink, but their climbing depth is admittedly not among the very best teams of the division.
Bruno Borges continues as the team's main puncheur and should easily improve on the 431 points he scored last year with Kinoshita and Kelderman out of the division and stage design changes somewhat lessening the importance of the mountain stat. His acceleration of 81 is the best among the division's puncheurs, and should help him versus his competitors, although acceleration is of less importance than on the old game.
As for the sprints, Gerald Ciolek takes over the leading duties from Oscar Avelino. Ciolek is another veteran at 34 years of age and could struggle this season, having seen acceleration drop to 76 and resistance to 66, although his top speed is still quite good. His scoring potential is perhaps not much better than Yoeri Havik, who at 76 cobbles and 79 sprint could benefit from easier cobbles sections and score some minor results in the northern classics. Damien Howson meanwhile, is the team's best time trialist at 80, but much like Ciolek, he lacks the supporting stats to bring in big points for his team.
All in all, a good squad with two riders in particular capable of scoring huge points this season. Their depth can't be considered more than just okay however, and the leadership quality outside of stage races and hills is somewhat questionable. As a result of this, I think promotion could prove difficult for Duolingo, but I don't expect them to be far off either. Prediction: 8th place.
DK – SVA Zalgiris
Manager: quadsas Last season: 7th [CT]
Although Zalgiris promoted from a 7th place in CT last year, they've done a good job in the transfer season and could very well end up becoming the highest placed newly promoted team in 2020.
The climbing department stands out as the strongest area of the team, with Stefan Denifl being the best of the bunch. Only Tenorio and Pluchkin have a higher mountain stat, however at 73 stamina and 69 resistance, his scoring will probably be closer to that of the average 81-climber. That still means I expect his scoring to be good, but not among the very best climbers of the division. Benat Intxausti meanwhile, has better back-up stats, but lacks the punch to score at the level you would normally expect from a 80 climber. In terms of support, Carpenter is a decent mountain/hill hybrid rider and should provide decent depth scoring. As should Dees and Ahmad Zamri in stage races that combine mountains and time trials, with especially the former having the potential to score quite well at 75 mountain, 77 time trial and 76 resistance.
Oscar Guerao will be Zalgiris' main sprinter this season, and despite being a completely different rider, he shares some characteristics with Stefan Denifl. At 83 sprint, his top speed is similar to that of riders like Caleb Ewan and Ben Swift, but weak resistance and slow acceleration means he likely won't score anywhere near what the aforementioned riders will do. A point total of around 400 could perhaps be expected, though, which is still very respectable.
Zalgiris doesn't have a major point scorer for time trials, northern classics or hill races, but does have several riders that could still be expected to contribute with a useful amount of points in said races. The potential is perhaps the highest in the hills, where Evaldas Siskevicius and Matthias Krizek should form a good trio together with Carpenter. Nareklishvili is good enough to score some points in time trials, and Alexandr Nepomnyachsniy is a useful rider in northern classics where the cobble sections aren't overly challenging, due to his strong finish.
Although their major stars perhaps lack the back-up stats to perform like their main stat would suggest, Zalgiris has a good amount of riders that can contribute with scoring from behind and help the team avoid a relegation battle. In fact, I think a mid-table position could be very well within reach if they have a little bit of luck on their side. Prediction: 18th place.
Desigual
Manager: Mresuperstar Last season: 11th [PCT]
Desigual hasn't gone through major changes in the off-season, but having seen some of their key riders' main competitors decline or leave the division, I could see them improve a lot from last year and push towards a promotion place.
Justo Tenorio scored a very respectable 999 points last year and finished 7th in the individual rankings. However, the gap up to Pluchkin at 1708 points was massive despite the minor differences in relative strength. Now Pluchkin has declined however, and I'm tempted to say Tenorio is the better rider of the two, although they're hard to separate. Pluchkin has a small advantage in resistance (77 vs. 76), flat (73 vs. 68) and acceleration (73 vs. 67), but Tenorio has better punch (76 vs. 74), TT/prologue (80/79 vs 78/78) and stamina (78 vs. 77). As a result of this, I expect Tenorio to offset most of (if not all) the scoring difference from last year and improve his scoring some way into the 1000's. Abal, Nazaret, Burke and Jones will furthermore be of valuable assistance in that regard.
Omar Fraile was one of the most efficient riders in terms of points to wage last season. Only teammate Tenorio and Catteneo are better on the TT-bike among riders that climb reasonably well, which makes Fraile a good option for TT-heavy races with some, but not too much climbing. With fewer race days and flatter time trials this season, he could have a tough time scoring quite as well as last year, but I still expect him to contribute with a good amount of points for his team.
Expectations were high for Simon Yates before last season, however the Brit didn't quite live up to it and only scored 266 points. This season he has a lot more race days, the competition in the hills is weaker and he should benefit from stage design changes. All of this are factors that should help him raise his scoring by a couple of levels. His sprint stat has also been bumped from 75 to 77 in the off-season, which should benefit him somewhat, although he still probably isn't fast enough to contest normal bunch sprints as a rider like Marko Kump would. Desigual has another fairly alright sprinter in Eric Young, but with 75 cobbles and 78 sprint, his point contribution is more likely to come from the northern classics.
A bit weak in sprints and on the cobbles, but Desigual has both quality and depth in other terrains. I think they have enough about them to promote, but they'll for sure face heavy competition from several other teams. Prediction: 4th place.
Campari Asahi Procycling
Manager: Tamijo Last season: 8th [PCT]
Campari had a fantastic season last year and was a part of the promotion discussion right until the end. However, 6 of the 7 riders that scored more than 100 points for them are now gone, and that makes me seriously worried on Campari's behalf.
Tom Jelte Slagter will have the difficult task of taking over the main leadership responsibility from Dan Martin, who was fantastic last season. Slagter meanwhile only scored 420 points for Sauber, despite being one of the best climber/puncheur hybrid riders in the division with 78/79 mountain/hills. One explanation for that could be that his stamina and acceleration is a bit weak, but Campari will either way hope he can do better this year. With riders like Buchmann and Gesink entering the division, that's not going to be an easy task however. Kebede, Kunshin, Nakane and Petilli will provide some needed support, with especially the first mentioned being one who can contribute with some depth scoring.
Cesare Di Maggio has been brought in to take charge in pure hilly races and the Italian veteran is now into the last season of his prime. If the 2019 season is anything to go by however, he's going to have a hard time reaching his former highs. Di Maggio was punished for his low flat, mountain and resistance last year and scored only 149 points for ENI – MOL. Despite only Claeys matching his hill stat this year, I think Di Maggio could be facing another very difficult season. Dieteren, Mutsumine, Jung and Fiorelli offers some decent depth nevertheless, and will try their best to help the puncheur to some good results.
As for the cobbles, Ricardo Ferreira had a very good season last year and probably benefitted somewhat from 5-star cobbles sections. Now that this has be adjusted, his slight weakness in hills and somewhat average flat, stamina and resistance stat may be more of an issue. Him and Nooytens should still score decently, though. In terms of sprints and time trials, Campari is going to have a tough time scoring results. Saulo Lay is decently fast, but weak stamina and resistance will make it hard for him. Resistance is also an issue for Rasmus Sterobo in time trials, and even though he has a TT stat of 78, he might have trouble picking up a lot of points.
Campari has decent depth in the mountains and hills, but I'm not convinced that they've managed to sufficiently replace the leaders they lost in the off-season. If Slagter and Di Maggio can step up their performances by a lot from last year, they may have a shot at survival, but I think it's going to be very tough for them. Prediction: 25th place.
Berg Cycles
Manager: fintas Last season: 16th [PCT]
Berg finished 16th last year, and although there's been a few interesting changes to the team, I'd expect them perform around the same level.
Although he doesn't have the fastest top speed, Fabio Silvestre performed well for Berg last year thanks to his great flat stat of 78 and decent time trialling ability. This year, Ben Swift has interestingly been added to the team as well. At 83/81 sprint/acceleration, Swift matches Caleb Ewan's sprint abilities, but the Australian does have the upper hand with regards to speed on the flats, stamina and resistance. Swift is nevertheless probably a top 3 sprinter in PCT this year and should accordingly be expected to score very well. It'll be interesting to see if Silvestre will be utilized as a part of a lead-out or not, as the Portuguese rider is definitely good enough to score results on his own, but the signing of Swift will regardless of this affect his scoring potential negatively. As Kupfernagel also stays on for another season, Berg does in fact have three 80+ sprinters in the team, but I would be surprised if the German gets many opportunities to race for his own results.
Behind Kupfernagel, Berg doesn't really have other riders that could figure in a lead-out train, which is worth taking a moment to discuss as the game probably will be inclined to hand Swift a lead-out on more than a few occasions. Tzortzakis could perhaps do a job, but at 75/74 sprint/acceleration, 69 resistance and 70 flat, he'll struggle to place Swift and Swift's final lead-out rider in a good position relative to other teams. In that case, having both Silvestre and Kupfernagel do a job for Swift might be necessary, but that raises another question: will the game be able to handle such a strong lead-out? I have no idea, but I could potentially see a scenario where a strong lead-out from Kupfernagel and Silvestre causes Swift to run out of power too early.
Berg lacks riders to compete in northern classics and time trials, but does have decent leaders and depth in the mountains and hills. Pedro Miguel Paulinho has seen his hill stat bumped from 79 to 80, and supported by a good mountain stat of 75 and less competition in the hills, I think he should improve on the 112 points he scored last season by quite a bit. Sergio Henao meanwhile takes over leadership duties in the mountains from Primoz Roglic. Henao is a good climber at 81 mountain and 78 resistance, but his hill stat of 70 is problematic and will likely impact his scoring somewhat. Behind Paulinho and Henao, riders like Bartl and Destribois can be expected to contribute with good depth scoring.
Berg is a bit lacking in some areas, but is at the same among the best teams in the division in others (notably the sprinter area). Combined, I think it'll result in a mid-table position for Berg at the end of the season. Prediction: 15th place.
Ollfardh wrote:
Wow, this order makes it so interesting, I'm pretty sure all remaining teams would settle for that 13th place right now
It will be either Bakkafrost or Andorra since he pretty much put the spoiler in his Žalgiris preview card. And the remaining 3 teams - Adastra, Azteca and Aramco are promoted from CT teams.
We will certainly take 4th. Tenorio needs to cross the 1,000-point plateau and Simon Yates needs to at least double his point total from last season to get us there. Thanks for the preview.
Nice write-up SF! I haven't had the time to have a good look at the DB, so this is very informative. It's good to see you predcit us to finish the season more or less where I was expecting us to end up. My mindset going in to transfers was based on the predicament you've highlighted that Borges would prove more useful just because of stage re-desgin and divisional changes, so he became the team's centerpiece around whom I tried to rebuild the team. Admitedly though there is a number of decisions I would have changed now in hindsight. Spent opportunities I should have taken and ended up the last few days of transfers with more than enough cap space, but insufficient to really add value to the squad, so promotion could well just become an illusion yet again.
Bakkafrost came close to promotion last year, but although they've made an interesting addition in Monsalve, they could struggle to improve on their 7th place.
After being somewhat unsuccessful in the hills last season, Bakkafrost has changed their focus towards the mountains, with Yonathan Monsalve, Bonaventure Uwizeyimana and Paolo Scarponi all being added to the team. Monsalve will be the uncontested leader and should do very well at 81 mountain, 79 stamina and 80 resistance, but he will struggle to score at the same level as riders like Wellens, Kudus and of course Pluchkin and Tenorio. Uwizeyimana, Scarponi and Bonnin should contribute with decent depth scoring however, which for the latter two could be elevated somewhat by an excellent downhill ability.
Jacopo Guarnieri continues on as the main team's main sprinter. Last year he scored a massive 946 points, but he'll struggle to follow up on that having gone through his first decline. With 75+ in flat, stamina and resistance however, he must still be considered as one of the better sprinters in the division. Perera and Sarreau will provide a decent lead-out should it be needed, but both will struggle to contribute with any significant depth scoring.
Bakkafrost doesn't have leaders of the same quality as Monsalve and Guarnieri in other terrains, but both Vegard Breen and Tony Gallopin should contribute with a good results in northern classics and hilly TT races, respectively. Breen has good speed on the flats, climbs hills fairly well and has an alright finish, which means he could stand to benefit somewhat from easier cobbles sections and improve on the 305 points he scored last year. Gallopin should continue to be a great breakaway asset and one who can get some good results in stage races that combines hills and TT's, aided by his great stamina and resistance. In terms of hilly races, Arthur Vichot is a rider who could contribute somewhat, but poor climbing ability and resistance will probably make it difficult for him.
There's some high quality leaders in this team and some fun riders who could outscore scoring expectations if they have some luck with breakaways. Bakkafrost does lack the depth needed to challenge for promotion, however. I think they're likely looking at a mid-table finish this year. Prediction: 13th place.
Azteca - NBCSN
Manager: Kentaurus Last season: 1st [CT]
Azetca won the CT last year in a very convincing manner. Despite having a bigger salary cap to work with this season, they haven't really strengthened their squad much in the short-term however, and that worries me a little bit.
Ryan Eastman finished second in the CT individual rankings last year, and even at PCT level, he should be considered a good stage racer. He has seen his mountain stat bumped to 82 in the off-season, which is only lower than that of Pluchkin, Tenorio and Denifl. With a TT stat of 77, not many climbers match him there either. As a result of this, I think Eastman could score similarly to the 798 points he picked up in CT last year, although his hill stat of only 71 also could prove to be more of a problem now that the competition is better. Riders like Duarte, Suaza and Stetina should provide nice support, but similarly to Eastman, the trio's hill stats aren't the best and that will probably impact their depth scoring potential.
There's a few very good mountain/hill hybrid riders in the team. Johan Esteban Chaves was third in the CT individuals rankings last year, and at 76/79 mountain/hill, it's definitely possible for him to do well in PCT as well. Riders like Beltran, Buchmann and Paulinho will have the upper hand on the Colombian, however. Robbie Squire, Edison Bravo and Sergio Godoy should provide good support, with especially the first mentioned being of sufficient quality to bring in some points as well at 77/77 mountain/hill. His stamina and resistance is not the best however, so I wouldn't expect him to score as well as a rider like Areruya.
Despite being a 30-man squad, Azteca doesn't have heaps of point scorers in other terrains. Vaquera and Tivani lacks the speed to really be competitive in bunch sprints, although Tivani's resistance is fantastic. Orue, Richardson and Corwin are decent cobblers, but are lacking in their back-up stats. Orue has great stamina to be fair, but a flat stat of only 69 is problematic for a cobbler. None of the three have a good sprint to benefit from either.
Eastman, Chaves and Squire should be decent scorers for Azteca, but behind those three, the team is lacking a little bit. Perhaps it would have been wise to cut the squad size down closer to 20 riders and spend the extra ~500,000 on an extra leader, as I'm a bit worried there isn't enough points in the current squad to stay up. Prediction: 24th place.
Aramco DP
Manager: Luis Leon Sanchez Last season: 2nd [CT]
Despite some of their most important scorers from last year being gone and having a lot of riders out on loan, Aramco has done a good job building a squad that should at least have a reasonable chance of staying up.
The biggest signing Aramco has done this transfer season must surely be considered Diego Ulissi, who at 76 flat, 80 hill, 83 stamina and 75 acceleration, could be the best pure puncheur in the division. With 66 mountain and 71 resistance, I would be surprised if he scored as well as Kinoshita did last year however, even though hill stage changes could play to his advantage. Teklit and McEvoy should provide good support and contribute with some points themselves. McEvoy is especially an interesting rider considering that he has a very good finish, but there's a few of those riders in PCT this season and I'm not convinced that he has the all-round package to gather more than a couple of hundred points.
Dan Martin has been brought in to figure as the team's leader in the mountains. Martin had a brilliant season last year, but has turned 34 now and is considerably weaker as a result of that. At 80 mountain, 75 hill and 75 resistance, he should still deliver reasonably well, but he'll be far off the 1054 points he brought in last year for Campari. Borisavljevic and Fernandez meanwhile offers good support and should bring in some minor points.
Aramco also have a few decent sprinters. Oscar Avelino stands out as the best of the bunch with a sprint stat of 82. However, a flat stat of 70, stamina of 69, resistance of 65 and acceleration of 77 will undoubtedly hold him back, and I would be surprised if he picked up more than 2-300 points this season. Tewelde, Fonseca and Prasad have better back-up stats and could all get a result here and there when the sprint field is on the weaker side, but their top speed is too low to bring in big points. As for time trials and cobbles, those terrains must be considered a weakness for Aramco, but Stelly Robert and Stijn Joseph could perhaps bring in some minor points.
The quality and depth in the mountains and hills is pretty good, but I'm not sure if it's good enough to outweigh the weaknesses in other terrains. If Ulissi, Martin and Avelino all have a great season, Aramco could stay up, but I unfortunately think it's going to be tough for them. Prediction: 23rd place.
Andorra Cycling Project
Manager: Yellow Jersey Last season: 21st [PCT]
Andorra narrowly avoided relegation last year. Now Machado is gone, and their competitiveness is pretty much limited to the northern classics. That could put the team in big trouble in 2020.
Danny Summerhill was the best cobbler of the division last year and although riders like Altur, Trentin and Daniel now will provide new competition, the American still stands out as the best cobbler in PCT. No other rider can match his cobble stat of 83, his flat stat of 78 is joint best alongside Vanbilsen, he goes well over the hills and he has a decent finish. This year, he also has Pieter Vanspeybrouck to support him, who actually was the second best scoring cobbler of the division last year. The Belgian is 33 now though, and has therefore gone through his first decline. As a result of that, the earlier mentioned Altur, Trentin and Daniel should perhaps be considered as better riders, but Vanspeybrouck is still very much a top-quality cobbler. With Marc Machado and Kevin Eeckhout also in the team, Andorra undoubtedly has the strongest northern classics set-up in the division, although the pair probably lack the back-up stats to contribute with anything more than minor points.
Even though Andorra has the strongest northern classics set-up, this is probably the terrain where the specialists have the lowest scoring potential next to pure time trialists. As the team lacks quality leaders in every other terrain, this is a huge problem for Andorra. Hirschlein and Galiev are alright climbers, but lacks explosiveness to score results. Jelle Wallays could perhaps use his high fighter stat to get himself into a few breakaways on hilly stages, but I'm not sure if he really has the abilities to make the most of it, should the opportunity arise.
At 75 flat, 75/76 TT/prologue, 76 resistance and generally good all-round capabilities, Albert Kireva is perhaps the rider with the highest scoring potential after Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck. If Kireva could get into a successful breakaway or two, he does have some skills that could put him into a winning position. Azizulhasni Awang is the team's best sprinter, and at 79/83 sprint/acceleration, he is to be fair reasonably fast. A flat stat of 64 and resistance of 62 is a major problem though, and will likely get in the way for him.
Andorra thus only have two reliable point scorers and they're both specializing in the same terrain. I'm afraid that's not enough at this level and I fear they need quite a bit of luck to avoid finishing dead last this year. Prediction: 26th place.
Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling
Manager: ivaneurope Last season: 8th [CT]
Adastra was the last CT team to promote last year, but despite having a difficult starting point, they've managed to bring their squad up to decent PCT quality. Whether they've done enough to stay up or not, is very hard to predict however.
Georg Preidler will take charge in the mountains, and at 80 mountain, 78 hill, 77 resistance and 81 downhill, he is undoubtedly a very interesting rider. He didn't score more than 365 points in PT last season, but in PCT he should be a great asset, as one who can do well in both mountainous and hilly races. Although the importance of the downhill stat should not be overstated, it will help the Austrian recoup energy in the downhills better than most and give him a slight advantage over other climbers. I think Preidler should score well this season, perhaps at the level of 81-climbers like Carthy and Bennett. Leopold Konig complements Preidler well and should bring in some points from stage races that combines mountains and time trials, while Panayotov and Aasvold will provide good support and offer some minor depth scoring.
The second focus area of the team seems to be the sprints, where Alexander Kristoff has been brought in to get results. The Norwegian is very fast with a sprint stat of 82, but his acceleration of 77 is not up to standard compared to the best sprinters in the division. With a cobble stat of 77, he does offer something different though, and he could bring in a good amount of points from semi-hard northern classics where the cobbles fail to separate the best riders. Adastra has four other 78+ sprinters in the team, with the fastest of them being Damion Drapac. A resistance of 65 will make it hard for him to score major results, though, and Stauff and Canelon to some degree have the same problem. With 77 flat, 77 stamina and 79 sprint, Sebastian Lander is however one who could contribute with some results.
Adastra does lack a quality leader for pure hilly races and time trials, although Momchil Robov is a fairly decent puncheur. In Ramunas Navardauskaus, they do have an interesting rider for hilly TT races however. He only scored 145 points in CT last year, and thus you have to question if he can bring in much more that at PCT level, but he does have an interesting skill-set that could see him pick up some very good results here and there.
Overall, Adastra has done a very good job in the transfer season, and they certainly have a good shot at staying up if riders like Konig, Lander and Navardauskas performs and contributes with points behind Preidler and Kristoff. If not, they may have a tough battle on their hands. Prediction: 22nd place.
I think 7th is a little too high for us, although I agree with most of what you wrote there. Carthy will struggle slightly due to the amount of 81+ MO riders in the division, but I've tried to keep him away from TTs as far as possible. As for Yates, the question is whether he can excel in the hill-mountain races like he did last season (Scandinavia and Lombardia for example), as he's only in a few stage races.
Turgis is an interesting one as if his mountain stat was a couple of points higher I'd feel a lot more comfortable with him - as you say, he's very similar to Gautier and he has amazing support stats, but I do fear that PCM 18 may be unkind to him. Still our depth on the hills (and with Figueiredo in the mountains as well) then we should score reasonably well, even if we don't have a McCarthy or Gautier level leader like in previous seasons.
Kemboi is definitely tricky to predict, as I've tried to keep him away from strong sprinter fields where he would sometimes fail to contest the sprint. It means his ceiling in terms of point scoring is lower than it could be, but should get him consistent points wherever he goes - particularly as he rides almost every prologue on the calendar. Ditto Paillot, as we didn't plan for signing a TTer so he has no PTHC races to ride, but will hopefully be able to rack up top 5s in HC and C1 races. And Van der Sande is always a useful rider at this level, good for a random classic podium and a few stage wins.
However I think you're right to highlight our lack of depth, as we have a number of riders who are a season away from being consistent scorers. Goncalves, De Bod, Kamberaj and our trio of cobblers may pick up a few points here and there but I think realistically it won't be enough to push us much higher than the lower top 10. Still, I'd happily take 7th - and the chance for a title tilt next season!
Pretty accurate about my team, trust me though didn't want to have a 30 man roster again (like 2 years ago) but that is what happens when all the bids to get another leader fail.
will I be mid-table like with Ollfardh's preview... I hope so
