For the final dedicated PCT race of the year, we head to Japan. It’s another chance for the puncheurs to prove themselves, a chance for big performances and big disappointments as the fight for promotion and relegation is coming to a close.
Profile
The race takes place on a circuit of nine laps over a climb that is both pretty uneven in its profile but also pretty long, as is the entire race itself, coming it at just over 230 kilometers. Historically, it has often been decided in a sprint finish from a very reduced group of the top contenders, so we’ll take the sprinting abilities in account when looking at the favorites as well.
Top Favorites
HI
RS
ST
MO
SP
AC
Kinoshita
82
77
80
72
68
77
Kelderman
82
75
80
71
67
72
Schreurs
81
72
76
69
71
74
Beltran
81
72
73
79
65
76
Borges
80
73
75
70
71
81
Vakoc
80
71
75
71
71
74
All eyes are, of course, on Tomohiro Kinoshita. Not only is he the Japanese national champion presenting his jersey on home soil and going into the race as the top favorite, that status is also underscored by the fact that he’s the defending champion. But the competition is fierce, so let’s have a look at the riders trying to prevent a back-to-back winner:
Kelderman is on paper easily the second best puncheur on the startlist, but his season has been characterized by some rather disappointing performances. He’ll hope to redeem himself here and end the season on a high note.
Beltran’s season has been anything but a disappointment as he’s established himself, at least looking at the rankings, as the single best PCT puncheur. He will try to consolidate that position here, but with one of the weaker sprint stats, he might have to do so by going solo - though it’s not like that’s something he couldn’t do. The sheer length of the race is also not in his favor, but we’ll have to see how much of an impact that ultimately has.
Schreurs comes to Japan as last year’s runner-up, so he can be confident in his abilities on this terrain and he certainly won’t lack motivation to try and do even better - which would mean to win the whole thing. In comparison to the guys mentioned above, he is one of the quicker finishers.
The same applies to Borges and Vakoc, who are a slight step below the others as pure puncheurs, but whose decent sprinting seperates them from similarly good puncheurs a tier below. Speaking of:
Second-Tier Favorites
HI
RS
ST
MO
SP
AC
Claeys
83
68
74
67
67
73
Di Maggio
82
68
73
65
65
75
Jensen
80
73
77
70
66
76
Betancourt
80
71
72
73
67
74
Prevar
80
70
77
71
67
73
Waeytens
80
70
72
71
66
73
Flügel
80
65
77
71
67
72
Trofimov
79
72
74
74
70
70
Bilbao
79
71
77
67
71
75
Yates
79
70
77
70
75
80
Bellis
78
71
80
68
74
75
This second tier contains two other previous winners of this race, namely Flügel (2012) and Di Maggio (2014). Both haven’t been able to reach these hights this year, but they’ve shown flashes and could still be in contention if their weak resistance doesn’t limit them too much.
The same problem befalls Claeys, the best pure puncheur on paper, but also slightly lacking in secondary stats including climbing skills that might be necessary on a somewhat monotonous course like this.
More well-rounded are the likes of Jensen, Prevar, Betancourt and Waeytens. All four are great puncheurs, although the former two have a distinct advantage in their elite stamina, but none of them have a particularly quick finish, so they have to hope for a more selective race.
The contrary is true for Trofimov, Bilbao (who notably finished fourth last year), Yates and Bellis - whose exceptional stamina gives him the nod over a few possibly stronger pure puncheurs. They are in this tier precisely because of their strong sprinting. Especially Yates has a combination of speed and acceleration that is second to none among the contenders and almost had him in the top tier, but if the racing is really tough, he might have trouble to stick with the very best puncheurs. He’s done that before, though, having beaten Kinoshita at Milano - Torino, for instance.
Longshots
HI
RS
ST
MO
SP
AC
Vogt
80
71
78
62
62
63
Dowsett
80
69
74
65
66
71
Zaini
80
65
74
66
65
70
Gebrezgabihier
79
74
74
70
67
69
Slagter
79
73
71
78
61
71
Paulinho
79
72
70
75
68
75
Reichenbach
79
69
76
73
63
69
Klemme
79
69
73
73
65
65
Froome
79
68
72
67
51
70
Juul-Jensen
78
74
76
70
66
79
Pichon
78
74
72
69
62
74
Barbin
78
73
75
68
71
76
Caruso
78
71
76
69
70
77
Calmejane
77
76
73
71
72
76
Sepulveda
77
73
74
75
70
73
Tsatevich
77
73
74
62
75
75
Froome is the fourth and final previous champion, he won the race in 2016, relegating Kinoshita to second place in the process. It’s rather unlikely that this happens again here, not only because they are teammates now, one clearly working for the other, but also because the Brit has had trouble consistently living up to his potential on the hills due to a combination of subpar resistance and mountain abilities.
The same is true for the likes of Vogt, Dowsett and Zaini, who are almost listed more pro forma, but maybe they have a surprise in them on this last day of racing.
Gebrezgabihier and Paulinho are not plagued by those problems, but they might be relegated to domestique roles for Di Maggio and Vogt, respectively, which could hurt their chances.
In a long list of good puncheurs that includes Slagter, Reichenbach, Klemme and Barbin, all of whom could be in Top 10 contention on a good day, a few riders stand out for their previous successes in this race:
Juul-Jensen, for instance, has been third here two years ago and sixth last year. Improving on that might be too big of a challenge, but maybe it gives him the confidence for another good result. Beating him by one place, Pichon finished fifth last year, outsprinting a few nominally quicker riders.
One of them was Caruso, who finished in the Top 10 in both of the last two years and, alongside Calmejane, provides Europcar with another option for a good result. They’re rounding out the tier alongside Sepulveda and Tsatevich as riders who aren’t among the top puncheurs but whose good sprinting skills good give them an edge if they finish in a larger group.
In addition, there’s of course always a good chance that the backend of the Top 20 will have a few domestiques in it who have a good day. Among those candidates, in addition to the ones mentioned above, are the likes of Boily, Quevedo, Palini, Serry, Moscon and quite a few more.
We have 3 man here that could possibly perform well, in Zaini, Caruso and Calmejane. The latter would be especially suited for a mass sprint situation, where a big peloton comes over the last hill.
So where hoping for no action whatsoever and a slow pace
If we can keep Campari behind us in the rankings, I'll be happy. I'd like to see us make an attempt to pass cycleYorkshire and UBS, but looking at this mountainous profile and and with Schreurs performances this season in the back of my mind, I think it's probably too big of a task.
Well, Simon Yates, now would be a good time to show up for a change.
After having high expectations for this season, I'm happy to see the offseason on the horizon so we can regroup and break out the drawing board once again.
Could be disappointed with 18th, but already conceded that the result was irrelevant for us. Thanks for the amazing report cunego (and roturn for posting), congrats Popo4Ever for the win.
Wow, back to the CT for us. I am legitimately shocked to be honest, I really didn't expect this at the beginning of the year. What a tough pill to swallow... At least it puts us out of our misery I guess
Thanks Return for the amazing report though, although it didn't go our way.
Japan Cup 
But ok let's see how this goes, points are needed badly!
