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Tour of Tasmania Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-08-2020 10:40
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Grand Tour Champion
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Note: there will be a rankings update before this race
 Tour of Tasmania
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2018 | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Air France - KLM | | 2017 | Jerome Coppel | Festina - Dexia | | 2016 | Jerome Coppel | Team I-Gen - Festina | | 2015 | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Aker - MOT | | 2014 | Yuri Trofimov | Tinkoff Credit Systems Bank | | 2013 | Tejay Van Garderen | Wikipedia |
For the second year in a row I am flying down to Tasmania to visit my family, and also to report on the second-a-last ProTour race of the season. Last year was a thriller with Edvald Boasson Hagen fending off local favorite Jack Bobridge in the time trial to become a two-time winner and tie with Jerome Coppel as record winner. The Norwegian could take his third title and become sole record-holder, but the competition is strong. Ever since its inclusion the race is a coveted race for puncheurs and time trialists, though this year some climbers have also put the race on their schedule.
Profiles
The first stage takes the riders from George Town to Launceston, the second-largest city on the island. The stage is by no means flat but the sprinters will likely battle for the stage win and the first yellow jersey. The second stage, from Devonport to Penguin, is the stage for the puncheurs and climbers, with a lot of climbing including the final climb, crossed twice before a short downhill to the finish. The time trial around Sheffield (Tasmania, not Yorkshire) is short and contains a minor hill, which gives the weaker climbers a chance to gain back time.
Startlist
| Stage 1 | SP | ACC | HL | Stage 1 | SP | ACC | HL |  Coquard | 84 | 83 | 66 | Petit | 80 | 78 | 65 |  Van Stayen | 84 | 78 | 79 |  Scully | 79 | 80 | 67 |  Ewan | 83 | 81 | 71 |  Van der Sande | 79 | 79 | 70 |  Guerao | 83 | 76 | 65 |  Bertilsson | 79 | 77 | 69 |  Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 65 |  Krasnov | 78 | 77 | 63 | | Nelson | 81 | 81 | 60 | Clarke | 78 | 76 | 61 |  Van Heerden | 81 | 72 | 67 |  Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 | | Keukeleire | 80 | 79 | 70 |  Kalaba | 77 | 77 | 69 | | Samolenkov | 80 | 79 | 64 | Hsu | 77 | 77 | 67 |
While the first stage has some climbing, the sprinters should be favorite. Despite only one day to suit them, we have some world class sprinters attending.
Coquard is fresh off his GP Moscow win, and is ready to rock to boat on the other side of the world. With his standard leadout of Petit, no doubt they will challenge for the win.
Their main rival will be Van Stayen, the now ex-winner of GP Moscow. One advantage he has over the Frenchman is his ability to get over hills better, though his disadvantage is his acceleration.
The Australian sprinter-leadout duo of Podium Ambition, Ewan and Nelson, can count on sympathy from the home crowd. Kennaugh is the only sprinter to have ever won a stage in Tasmania, when he won the opening stage in 2015.
Other top contenders are Guerao and Van Heerden, though their acceleration might also come back to haunt them.
A total outsider could walk away with the win. A Samolenkov, Scully, Van der Sande or Bertilsson for instance. One shot, one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted. Mom's spaghetti.
| Stage 2 | HL | MO | ACC | Stage 2 | MO | HL | ACC | | Hagen | 85 | 70 | 79 | Taaramäe | 85 | 78 | 76 |  Ponzi | 84 | 73 | 80 |  Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 74 |  Sagan | 83 | 74 | 76 | Spilak | 84 | 81 | 73 | | Lutsenko | 83 | 73 | 81 | Kritskiy | 84 | 75 | 67 | | Mohoric | 83 | 71 | 77 | Lecuisinier | 83 | 75 | 74 |  Bobridge | 83 | 69 | 80 | Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 70 |  Van Garderen | 82 | 72 | 79 | Keizer | 81 | 71 | 73 | | Gastauer | 82 | 71 | 76 | Preidler | 80 | 78 | 69 | | Spilak | 81 | 84 | 73 |  Olivier | 80 | 76 | 71 | | Koretzky | 81 | 71 | 79 | Keinath | 79 | 76 | 70 | | McCarthy | 81 | 67 | 74 | Padun | 78 | 75 | 73 | | Buchmann | 80 | 76 | 73 | Poljanski | 77 | 77 | 71 |  Boswell | 80 | 71 | 76 | Tvetcov | 77 | 75 | 73 | | Prevar | 80 | 71 | 73 | Goos | 77 | 74 | 73 | | Anuar Aziz | 80 | 67 | 69 |  Vasyliv | 77 | 74 | 67 |  Yates | 79 | 70 | 80 |  Novak | 77 | 73 | 65 | | Van Stayen | 79 | 64 | 78 | Mai | 77 | 70 | 60 |
Some teams have a different interpretation of the second stage than others, as some chose to send a puncheur and others chose to send a climber. Either way, a favorite has to know how to ride uphill.
The safest bet is a rider who can do both. Look no further than Spilak in that case. Isostar bringing a very strong team, as they also have Mohoric and Keizer as backup puncheur and climber respectively.
Historically speaking, it has been a race of the puncheurs, as shown by two-time winner Hagen. He also enters the race as defending champion. The other rider to have won the overall in the past is Van Garderen, in 2013. Both men lay their groundwork on the hilly stage. Ponzi and Bobridge are past stage winners as well.
Previous performances are no indication for the future. Sagan and Lutsenko and Gastauer have not had success here in the past, but there is a first for everything.
Moving over to the climbers, where the field is led by Taaramäe, wildcard Pluchkin and Spilak, with eight Grand Tour wins between them. Taaramäe won this year's Vuelta, but he is equaled by Spilak who won the Giro. In terms of Tour de Frances, the Slovenian also leads with two titles, while the other gentlemen have only one against their name. Why I'm comparing palmarès from a different race, I don't know.
No Grand Tour success does not make you a bad climber. Kritskiy, Lecuisinier and Cattaneo are all plausible contenders, though they have to break the puncheurs.
| Stage 3 | TT | HL | MO | Stage 3 | TT | HL | MO | | Fiedler | 83 | 68 | 60 | Sütterlin | 80 | 65 | 59 | | Zmorka | 82 | 66 | 59 | Van Winden | 80 | 63 | 53 | | Taaramäe | 81 | 78 | 85 | Pluchkin | 79 | 75 | 85 | | Keizer | 81 | 71 | 81 | Cattaneo | 79 | 70 | 82 | | Vlatos | 81 | 66 | 52 | Brändle | 79 | 71 | 76 | | Kritskiy | 80 | 75 | 84 | Cataford | 79 | 70 | 72 | | Paillot | 80 | 71 | 70 | Dennis | 78 | 75 | 74 | | Würtz | 80 | 70 | 65 |  Oliveira | 78 | 73 | 74 | | Sergent | 80 | 69 | 65 | Lecuisinier | 77 | 75 | 83 | | Lammertink | 80 | 69 | 64 | Bobridge | 77 | 83 | 69 | | Yatsevich | 80 | 68 | 55 |  Kangert | 77 | 77 | 75 |
The time trial is not completely flat, resulting in many contenders. The hill is not that difficult, but some pure time trialists have problems with even a speed bump.
Fiedler has shown he is capable of handling this stage, winning it last year. The competition last season did not contain many time trialists which were also climbers, hence the outcome is not guaranteed to replicate this year.
Zmorka and Vlatos are good time trialists on pure flat courses, but this is not. Nevertheless, a good result is expected of them. Paillot and Würtz are better adapted to a bit of climbing.
A thing to notice is the large amount of climbers who are also capable of time trialling. Every rider mentioned as climber in the previous section with the exception of Spilak is also in the contenders section here. The best of the lot are Taaramäe, Keizer and Kritskiy.
The puncheurs are not represented with the exception of Bobridge, who thought he had the exclusive rights to the combo which brought him close to glory on many occasions. With the new-found competition, it will be more difficult than ever.
There is also a whole category of riders whose speciality it is to perform on hilly time trials. Look at a Brändle, Dennis, Oliveira and Kangert. They might even sneak a good GC result.
| GC | MO | HL | TT | GC | MO | HL | TT | | Taaramäe | 85 | 78 | 81 | Novak | 77 | 73 | 76 | | Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 79 | Ponzi | 73 | 84 | 68 | | Kritskiy | 84 | 75 | 80 | Oliveira | 74 | 73 | 78 | | Keizer | 81 | 71 | 81 | Bibby | 76 | 75 | 76 | | Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 | Laengen | 76 | 73 | 76 | | Spilak | 84 | 81 | 76 | Sagan | 74 | 83 | 68 | | Lecuisinier | 83 | 75 | 77 | Lutsenko | 73 | 83 | 68 | | Bobridge | 69 | 83 | 77 | Van Garderen | 72 | 82 | 69 | | Hagen | 70 | 85 | 72 | Paillot | 70 | 71 | 80 | | Brändle | 76 | 71 | 79 | Cataford | 72 | 70 | 79 | | Keinath | 79 | 76 | 75 | Tvetcov | 77 | 75 | 74 | | Kangert | 75 | 77 | 77 | Brown | 75 | 73 | 76 | | Dennis | 74 | 75 | 78 | Dyball | 76 | 73 | 75 | | Goos | 77 | 74 | 76 | Rosskopf | 73 | 75 | 76 |
So, the combined rankings. To win, you need to be good at either climbing or puncheuring [sic], and be decent at time trialling.
The riders who best combine these abilities are the climbers. Taaramäe ranks on top, as he is simply capable of being amongst the best in all three disciplines.
The next four riders on the list are also expected to battle for the podium. There is not much separating Pluchkin, Kritskiy, Keizer and Cattaneo. They can only inflict small damage on each other on both important stages.
Spilak and Lecuisinier lack the time trial ability compared to the previous riders, though they are by no means slow. It just means they have to gain more time on stage two.
The first non-climber is Bobridge, who hopes this will finally be his year. Since 2015 he has finished on the podium in every edition, though never on the top step. Hagen did win twice, but both men now have to beat the climbing force on the second stage.
The hybrids occupy the next spots on the list. Brändle, Keinath, Kangert, Dennis and Goos can all surprise in the GC. Kangert even finished on the podium last year!
Edited by Marcovdw on 04-08-2020 11:16
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| ember |
Posted on 04-08-2020 15:02
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Very nice preview, Marcovdw!
We come here with big expectations. Putting Taaramäe here was obvious seeing how his race planning went, as possible stage points + GC felt obvious compared to LBL or Lombardia. Seeing the startlist (no Phinney) is a pleasant surprise, and hopefully Taaramäe can make use of the TT and win this overall. He needs to be able to follow the front riders on the hilly stage then, but seeing how hilly stages in stage races are played out, I'm optimistic he should be up there.
Fingers crossed we can help chase down breakaways, making the GC a fight between the GC riders and not breakaway riders  |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 18:20
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-08-2020 15:32
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All in.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 05-08-2020 08:46
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Stacked startlist. We'll be fighting over the scraps these big guns leave on the table.
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-08-2020 09:46
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My team could do really well here with Paillot/Keinath mainly and Olivier/Boom/Zardini as depth points.
But it all depends how selective the hill stage is and how much time gaps on the TT. Lots of questionmarks.
More interesting to follow the other teams here.
T-Mobile needs a huge race and have a big time startlist. Basically need Fiedler winning the GC though.
Same with Repsol and Zmorka.
Different tactic for Fablok and Farfetch going for the hilly stage. We`ll see how it ends. |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 05-08-2020 11:02
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Took a massive gamble in planning by sending Cattaneo here, and having seen how PCM 18 treats stages like Stage 2 here throughout the season I'm glad I did. Hopefully he can stay with the front group, although I expect he'll be gapped in the sprint if he does.
Best case scenario is a break taking the stage to be honest, as it limits point scoring opportunities for Ponzi and Lutsenko as well as keeping the pace low in the pack, but that could also backfire. Hopefully we can get a top 10 and a couple of good stage results to go to Lombardia still outside the relegation zone. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 05-08-2020 13:05
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Hopefully Stake Laengen can continue to overperform this season! Could be a good race for Würtz also, if the hilly stage isn't that selective. Some really big hitters here, so should be a great race.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 05-08-2020 13:32
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It's impossible Zmorka survives the hilly stage. And the final TT will be won by Taaramae, as it has some ascent at the middle of the course, enough for his 85 mon to kick in.
The actual hope is Novak, which isn't a very good one. I mean, it's a race that suits him, but there are maybe 30 riders which are suited to it too and are much better  So we have to hope for a slowish hilly stage (fast enough to drop Cattaneo please ) and a +5 in the TT for Novak
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 05-08-2020 15:44
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Oof, that is one stacked field here 
Hoping Pluchkin can upset a number of teams here 
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 05-08-2020 17:00
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That Coquard fellow really has found his legs lately. Congrats SotD
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-08-2020 17:24
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Good start with Spilak and Mohoric very attentive.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 05-08-2020 17:30
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What is this? Guerao in a great position but then dropping to 14th? I can't expect him to win here but, also looking at the names that passed him, this is a joke. Why can't my team not disappoint for a change? |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 06-08-2020 17:00
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Excellent job by Kangert and Bibby! They are now in a position to challenge for a solid GC result in the TT.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 06-08-2020 17:29
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5 minutes 
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| roturn |
Posted on 06-08-2020 17:53
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Keinath did pretty good as expected now being my top10 GC guy for the TT.
Paillot lost more than hoped, while Olivier/Zardini haven`t been bets GC wise anyway but should remain top50 I guess.
Unfortunate to still have that many time trialists in that first group and Cattaneo/Keizer too close to remain in front of them. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 06-08-2020 18:18
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Keizer you moron, loosing unnecessary time and a potential Top3 at the end. Spilak doing very well though, while Mohoric is just doing Mohoric things.
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| ember |
Posted on 06-08-2020 18:32
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Wow, the team did surprisingly well there! Having Aasvold and Tvetcov pulling on the final ascent wasn't something that crossed my mind when I opened the report. Taaramäe also on same time as everyone else is good, and he looked really strong in that sprint, holding the lead for more than a kilometer. Second place is still a very nice result. Hopefully he can finish it off in the TT and take the overall here. Would be great to end the season on a high!
Thank you for the report, roturn! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 06-08-2020 19:21
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| ember |
Posted on 06-08-2020 19:50
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Oh, mixed up Deutschland and Tasmania. Sorry! Thank you for the report, Marcovdw  |
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| Bikex |
Posted on 06-08-2020 19:59
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WTF are you doing Lutsenko? Again a quite promising situation completely wasted, when my riders dropped out of the front group.
I'm sure jph mixed something in my team's food. |
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