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Bayern Rundfahrt Discussion
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 18-05-2020 18:48
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Grand Tour Specialist
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 Bayern Rundfahrt
4 stages - 2 ITT, 1 flat, 1 mountainous - 440km
Welcome to Germany, or more precisely to the Free State of Bavaria, where we'll see PCT, CT and even Amateur riders battling for the crown in this C1 stage race in the upcoming four days!
This race is pretty much unique in the calendar, as it features the incredible amount of 75 ITT kilometers, with 50 on the first and 25 on the last day. This means that the riders will be on their own for almost 20% of the total race distance!
But even though the time trial stages are mostly flat, the GC won't come for free for the pure TT specialists, as we'll have a mountain-top finish on stage 3 - which could even eliminate some of the strongest time trialists from the race!
And in between, there's the flat stage 2, attracting even a few sprinters. But they probably won't be in for more than this stage win, as the green jersey seems to be reserved for a TT powerhorse - or a climber with more than just decent TT skills.
Before we get to the gladiators participating in this (hopefully) spectacular, unique race, let's just take a look at these profiles:
What is already sure is that we're going to get a new winner this year, as no former champion is present here in Bavaria. But last year's edition - with roughly ITT kilometers more - still gives us a vague idea about what it takes to win here. It actually took a great performance by Martin Keizer to beat TT specialist Jérôme Coppel - who was the only one actually challenge the good climbers.
Still, it is clear that being a great climber alone will definitely not be enough, as the amount of time to gain on this sole mountain top finish is by far inferior to what can be lost in the two time trials. So let's first take a look at those who can do both really well:
| 1st-tier Hybrids | MO | TT | RES |  Tenorio | 84 | 80 | 76 |  Eastman | 81 | 77 | 75 |  Reis | 81 | 76 | 76 |  Shikai | 81 | 76 | 76 |  Abal | 80 | 76 | 76 |  Choi | 80 | 75 | 76 |  Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 77 | 75 | | Ortega | 76 | 75 | 74 |  Ivars | 75 | 77 | 74 | | | | | | 2nd-tier Hybrids | MO | TT | RES | 2nd-tier Hybrids | MO | TT | RES |  Ratiy | 80 | 74 | 73 | Figueiredo | 76 | 72 | 75 |  Krasnoperov | 80 | 73 | 69 | Grigrian | 76 | 72 | 68 |  Roglic | 80 | 72 | 76 |  Kratochvila | 76 | 70 | 68 | | Carapaz | 80 | 72 | 76 | Domagalski | 75 | 74 | 69 | | Schelling | 80 | 72 | 76 |  Bjelkmark | 75 | 73 | 73 | | Duarte | 79 | 74 | 75 |  Pavlic | 75 | 72 | 73 | | Warbasse | 78 | 74 | 73 | Jones | 75 | 71 | 71 |  Nibali | 78 | 73 | 71 | Matte | 75 | 71 | 71 | | Diaz | 78 | 72 | 73 | Izagirre | 74 | 77 | 72 | | Borisavljevic | 77 | 74 | 74 | Barbio | 74 | 75 | 73 | | Schir | 77 | 72 | 72 | Goncalves | 73 | 78 | 72 | | Bartl | 77 | 71 | 74 | Rolland | 73 | 76 | 69 | | Reguigui | 76 | 73 | 69 | Abreu | 73 | 75 | 71 |
As there are really many of those hybrids, we split the list into 1st- and 2nd-tier riders. The 1st-tier riders are those who have a value of at least 75 in both main stats - and it seems to be very likely that the winner will come from this shortlist.
The 2nd-tier hybrids are those who have at least 75 in one and at least 70 in the other main stat.
Well, actually, we would need to make another list, containing only one rider - the Tenorio-list! He is easily the best climber, and the second best TT specialist, so he really is the huge favorite for this race. Furthermore, he brings very good mountain support with Nazaret.
Behind the Spaniard, we would expect a really close race for 2nd, featuring CT individual leader Eastman (4th last year), Reis, last year's 3rd Shikai, Abal and Choi (11th last year). All of these are very close considering both climbing and TTing - be prepared for some hot duels!
The remaining riders in the 1st-tier list could actually go to the 2nd-tier list, as they're clearly weaker climbers. But at least Nepomnyachsniy and Ivars might well win some seconds in the TTs, whereas Ortega really barely makes it on this list.
We won't name all of the 2nd-tier hybrids - but given especially their climbing abilities, we're definitely set for a great day of racing on stage 3! And we really shouldn't rule them out, but with the time they'll lose on these 75 ITT kilometers, it seems hard to imagine having one of them winning the GC.
It will be interesting to see how much time the more TT focused riders - e.g. Izagirre (who of course is a great puncheur, but not the greatest climber) or Goncalves - can gain on the best climbers - if they have a great day on stage 3, they could be absolutely in the fight for the overall podium!
Then we have the - let's say - "specialists", i.e. the pure climbers (<70 TT) and time trialists (<70 MO):
| Climbers | MO | TT | RES | TTers | MO | TT | RES | | Garby | 79 | 68 | 76 | Kittel | 55 | 81 | 70 | | Nazaret | 79 | 64 | 77 | Dillier | 51 | 80 | 77 | | Pomoshnikov | 79 | 64 | 76 | Robert | 57 | 79 | 70 | | Stancu | 78 | 66 | 74 | Balloni | 60 | 78 | 71 | | Giogieri | 78 | 66 | 74 |  Olman | 52 | 78 | 66 | | Padun | 78 | 65 | 73 | Hussein | 68 | 77 | 69 | | Stetina | 78 | 64 | 74 | Pokälä | 64 | 77 | 73 | | Iino | 77 | 68 | 72 | Eaton | 62 | 77 | 76 | | Hiratsuka | 77 | 63 | 74 | Steensen | 59 | 77 | 73 | | Solis | 77 | 57 | 75 | Cheung | 59 | 77 | 74 | | | | |  Rekita | 56 | 77 | 71 | | | | | Verona | 54 | 77 | 75 | | | | |  Kovalev | 53 | 77 | 59 | | | | | Gretsch | 51 | 77 | 72 | | | | | Christensen | 59 | 76 | 72 | | | | | Cheyne | 58 | 76 | 75 | | | | | Grabovski | 69 | 75 | 70 | | | | | Kreuziger | 67 | 75 | 70 | | | | | Betilson | 58 | 75 | 72 |
From the rather short list of climbers, we can clearly see that most of the mountain goats - actually all of them having an 80+ mountain stat - are good TTers as well. Maybe some of those named here may fight for the stage win on the third day, but it's hard to see them get a top GC result.
The same holds for the right column, the TT specialists. At least, these have got two chances for a stage win - if they survive day number three! With most of them having a mountain stat of even below 60, this could be a real danger - or at least makes it clear they probably can't have any GC ambitions. Their big hope may be too look at Coppel's performance last year, finishing runner-up despite a mountain stat of only 65...
We have mostly ignored them for now, but let's still talk about those who target the second stage: The sprinters.
| Sprinters | FL | SPR | ACC | | Kupfernagel | 74 | 80 | 80 | | Lavoine | 73 | 80 | 78 | | Ulanowski | 73 | 80 | 77 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | | Krieger | 71 | 79 | 79 | | Vanderaerden | 72 | 79 | 75 |  Canelon | 77 | 78 | 83 | | Ranneries | 70 | 78 | 82 | | Vaquera | 71 | 78 | 80 | | Jones | 72 | 78 | 78 |  Boev | 72 | 78 | 78 | | Tewelde | 74 | 78 | 77 | | Kamberaj | 74 | 77 | 76 | | Jaser | 73 | 77 | 75 | | Vinther | 74 | 77 | 74 | | Losch | 71 | 76 | 77 | | Reza | 71 | 76 | 75 | | Pozdnyakov | 72 | 75 | 74 | | Geschke | 70 | 75 | 74 | | Torckler | 71 | 75 | 73 |
The Top 3 - Kupfernagel, Lavoine and Ulanowski - might be the favorites, given that they have the highest top speed. Of these, Lavoine should have the best leadout in Tewelde.
But watch out for Reinhardt with his great acceleration as well - and Canelon is just a beast on the flat AND accelerates lightning fast! Furthermore, three of his team mates are in this list as well - what could be their strategy on day two?
Let's take a look as well at the young riders:
| Young riders | MO | TT | RES | | Padun | 78 | 65 | 73 | | Borisavljevic | 77 | 74 | 74 | | Shirota | 75 | 58 | 68 | | Barta | 74 | 71 | 72 | | Brozyna | 74 | 70 | 69 | | Rodrigues | 74 | 70 | 72 | | Rekita | 56 | 77 | 71 | | Cosnefroy | 68 | 74 | 77 |
If we only had a mountain stage, Padun would probably be the favorite - but here it definitely has to be Borisavljevic, given his clear superiority in the TTs against the Ukranian. Only Rekita or Cosnefroy could match him in the TTs - could at least the latter challenge the climbers for a U25 podium?
And finally, we should mention the local riders, as riding on their home territory may very well give them a boost!
We'll see 11 Germans racing tomorrow, one of them being among the top TT contenders: Kittel will target at least one stage win, and Gretsch could get a great result as well.
Furthermore, Kupfernagel is on top of the sprinters' list, whereas his teammate Bartl will be an important mountain domestique for his leader Roglic. Krieger and Reinhardt are targetting stage 2 as well, while Pfingsten, Kämna, Geschke, Grosser and Brockhoff will mainly be on helper duties. But at least, the fans have a good choice of locals to cheer for!
That's all that needs to be said, before we jump right into the action! Just one last thing - the startlist!
As we already mentioned, we have a mix of PCT (11 teams), CT (6) and Amateur (3) teams - let's see if the "small" teams can hurt the "big" ones once again!
Sorry for the missing Amateur teams' flags - just didn't know which country they're racing for, so I couldn't paste the right ones...
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 18-05-2020 19:16
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
Joined: 20-05-2009
PCM$: 530.00
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need a big race from Shikai. Also he needs to beat Choi or I will yet again regret selling him 
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 18-05-2020 19:58
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Oof, what in the world is Tenorio doing here... Otherwise this would have looked like a very nice spot for Eastman to continue his dominance. Well we can all pretend we are fighting for a win, at least for like a day. Then go with the reality its a fight for 2nd.
Great preview, excited to see this one play out.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 18-05-2020 22:22
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Looks like a good chance for points. Reis knows how to podium here and is well defended by a solid squad. Realistically I agree with the 2nd to 6th assessment. After Tenorio it is a very open contest.
Thanks for such and extensive and thorough preview Fabianski. Looking forward to the reports!!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 18-05-2020 23:23
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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As always, we don't have any favorites here. That being said, we have a chance to compete, and we need all the points we can get.
This type of race should suit Warbasse. He's done quite well this year too. Of course, it suits every other leader here even better though, so I'm not too hopeful. It would be great of some hill stat was involved in stage 3, since a lot of the second tier pure stage racer types are not as versatile that way as Larry is.
Garby is here too, which might have been a bad idea. My thought was that with the GC already favoring time trialing heavily after the first stage, it shouldn't really cause any confusion as to my GC leader. And as one of the stronger climbers, he could be of service. But if Garby wants to attack and try for a stage win in the mountains, I'm happy to see it.
We've also got Steensen for the TT's and Ranneries for the sprint. Steensen has been very poor this year, but I guess there's still a chance that he gets good daily form for one of the TT's. Ranneries on the other hand has been surprisingly serviceable in his few opportunities this year, but I'm not counting on anything from him. If he could score a single point on stage 2, I'd be very happy.
Thank you for the great preview Fabianski!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 19-05-2020 01:23
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8059
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 650.00
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... to win.  The second to last race for him before ending his season at the Kenya Mountain Classic. Hopefully this will be a simple cycle through the park like everyone thinks it will be.
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| fintas |
Posted on 19-05-2020 11:04
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2602
Joined: 21-03-2008
PCM$: 1200.00
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I don't expect much from this race, due to the TT kms our chances of a good result will be slim.
I still hope that Kupfernagel can fight for victory in the second stage. Roglic should be able to fight for a place in the top 15.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 19-05-2020 11:06
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
Joined: 12-06-2013
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Well hopefully Borisavljevic takes the Youth classification and he, alongside Nibali, show themselves at the right end of the Final GC standings. Won't be easy in a field like this. Good TT kilometres for both as well as for Robert!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 19-05-2020 20:34
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Good first stage for Eastman, right in line with where he needs to be to ensure a podium from this race, and at least pretend to challenge for the overall.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 19-05-2020 21:21
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Not a terrible ride from Warbasse I guess. I never feel good having a GC rider go early in an opening TT, and that proved correct I think. Steensen as well was about as useless as I figured.
Hopefully Ranneries can sprint tomorrow.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 15:39
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 19-05-2020 22:30
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World Champion
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Solid start for the team. Salcone and Rolland both with solid stage placings as well. Shikai demolishing Choi is a good sign too.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 20-05-2020 00:29
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
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Nice win by Kittel. Tenorio also in good position to take the win already. I'm very happy with Goncalves here. 2nd is above what I expected, now I just hope the team treats him as a leader and he doesn't lose too much time on the mountain stage. He should be able to pull of a top 5-10.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 20-05-2020 00:43
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8059
Joined: 22-06-2009
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As expected stage for Desigual. Tenorio in a good spot and Eaton with a solid showing. Was hoping better for Verona but looks like he got onto the course at a bad time. Now time to stay out of trouble on Stage 2.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 20-05-2020 07:24
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Team Leader
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Poor start from Reis. One minute is a lot, unfortunately.
What a massive report, though! Incredible coverage! Thanks Fabianski.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 20-05-2020 21:02
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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What a stupid sprint from Ranneries. It's like he was trying to be blocked. Well, on to tomorrow.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 20-05-2020 21:02
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World Champion
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Amazing sprint, and an even better report! Outstanding.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 20-05-2020 22:57
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
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Plan for tomorrow: Not do stupid things. You hear me Nikita? What a mess. Thanks for another great report Fabian ski!
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| redordead |
Posted on 21-05-2020 06:39
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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First win for our amateur team VIP Mobile!! 
Great report on a great win Fabianski 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| roturn |
Posted on 21-05-2020 10:04
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Team Manager
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This obviously had to come seeing the great run lately.
Jones was nice to get pre season and taking the win here was the perfect answer.
Very well done to our amateurs. |
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 21-05-2020 11:36
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Our job here is done
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