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ICL19 - Previews & Statistics
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| matt17br |
Posted on 16-05-2020 12:03
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Wow, this is some really in-depth stuff Ripley, thanks a lot for your previews, a joy to read through them! Not sure whether I agree with our team being so high up the rankings, but that might just be me being a bit pessimistic by nature 
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 16-05-2020 18:12
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Suntory are aiming to repeat their U23 victory but it looks like we have some strong opposition. Bring it on.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 17-05-2020 08:48
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I knew we'd need some previews after such a long break to get us re-acquainted with and re-invested in the ICL. And I just love statistics. Here is another one, the most "overpaid" riders, that is, the biggest difference between actual wage and min wage (Wage - Min Wage). Some were FAs, but most earned their wage through scoring last season.
| Name | Team | AVG | Wage | MinW | Diff | | Sagan | CarbonSports | 80.1 | 1725 | 670 | 1055 | | Aru | Ceramica Panaria | 81.7 | 1845 | 820 | 1025 | | Phinney | Vittel – Havas | 79.3 | 1600 | 610 | 990 | | Degenkolb | Lufthansa | 79.6 | 1580 | 630 | 950 | | Contador | Sevilla Cycling Team | 81.7 | 1700 | 820 | 880 | | Demare | Team Alitalia | 79.2 | 1450 | 600 | 850 | | Van Garderen | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 79.8 | 1500 | 650 | 850 | | Quintana | Grupo Argos - Quala | 81.8 | 1675 | 830 | 845 | | Yates | Lufthansa | 78.9 | 1400 | 570 | 830 | | Betancur | Liberty Seguros | 79.5 | 1450 | 620 | 830 | | Kwiatkowski | Vittel - Havas | 80.9 | 1500 | 740 | 760 | | Barguil | Allianz - BMW | 82.0 | 1600 | 840 | 760 | | Herklotz | Bosch Cycling Team | 78.8 | 1300 | 560 | 740 | | Boasson Hagen | VisitUkraine | 77.5 | 1125 | 460 | 665 | | Mohoric | Grupo Argos - Quala | 78.5 | 1175 | 540 | 635 | | Herrada | Liberty Seguros | 80.7 | 1350 | 730 | 620 | | Majka | Aviva Cycling Team | 80.8 | 1360 | 740 | 620 | | Nibali | Italo | 81.3 | 1380 | 780 | 600 | | Spagnoli | SAP - Bianchi | 75.3 | 890 | 300 | 590 | | Kittel | CarbonSports | 80.9 | 1330 | 740 | 590 | | Van Poppel | Filliers – Mora | 80.1 | 1225 | 670 | 555 | | Bardet | Suntory Lucozade | 81.5 | 1350 | 800 | 550 | | Van Keirsbulck | Filliers - Mora | 80.4 | 1200 | 700 | 500 | | | | | | | | Pintzopoulos | Italo | 76.4 | 375 | 380 | -5 | | Ludvigsson | Team Alitalia | 78.6 | 540 | 550 | -10 | | Pizarro | Filliers - Mora | 74.8 | 260 | 270 | -10 | | Vanbilsen | KBC Godiva | 75.9 | 320 | 340 | -20 | | Moses | Project Cumbria | 75.9 | 320 | 340 | -20 | | Ospina | Santos - Euskadi | 77.4 | 420 | 450 | -30 | | Hofer | Vegeta Cycling Team | 74.3 | 200 | 230 | -30 | | Torres | Ceramica Panaria | 72.4 | 100 | 130 | -30 |
Those with a negative number must have gotten some training, but of course other riders have been trained as well, but are earning more than their min wage.
And now riders sorted by Wage/Min Wage, I won't repeat the "underpaid" riders again:
| Name | Team | AVG | Pot | Wage | MinW | Factor | | Meyer | Suntory Orangina | 71.7 | 7 | 505 | 100 | 5.05 | | Colpaert | Reizen Waes | 69.9 | 6 | 410 | 100 | 4.10 | | Willems | Reizen Waes | 68.1 | 6 | 360 | 100 | 3.60 | | Rasmussen | Finair | 67.9 | 7 | 360 | 100 | 3.60 | | Backasch | Bora – Argon18 | 64.5 | 5 | 360 | 100 | 3.60 | | Garau | La Fundación | 71.5 | 7 | 350 | 100 | 3.50 | | Albini | Santos - Euskadi | 73.7 | 7 | 695 | 200 | 3.48 | | Vanden Boer | Reizen Waes | 67.7 | 6 | 310 | 100 | 3.10 | | Guirado | Cool Runnings | 70.4 | 5 | 300 | 100 | 3.00 | | Spagnoli | SAP - Bianchi | 75.3 | 7 | 890 | 300 | 2.97 | | Simunic | Nemiroff U23 p/b ABBYY | 66.3 | 5 | 285 | 100 | 2.85 | | Udovic | Nemiroff U23 p/b ABBYY | 63.1 | 5 | 285 | 100 | 2.85 | | Zappino | Astana U23 | 69.8 | 6 | 280 | 100 | 2.80 | | Phinney | Vittel – Havas | 79.3 | 7 | 1600 | 610 | 2.62 | | Herder | PostNL | 69.3 | 7 | 260 | 100 | 2.60 | | Karpati | Finair | 65.8 | 6 | 260 | 100 | 2.60 | | Sagan | CarbonSports - Lightweight | 80.1 | 6 | 1725 | 670 | 2.57 | | Safford | Suntory Orangina | 68.4 | 6 | 255 | 100 | 2.55 | | Degenkolb | Lufthansa | 79.6 | 7 | 1580 | 630 | 2.51 | | Salmon | Cool Runnings | 69.4 | 5 | 250 | 100 | 2.50 | | Whittaker | Warm Cycling | 67.0 | 6 | 250 | 100 | 2.50 | | Casse | Équipe Development Citroën | 66.3 | 6 | 250 | 100 | 2.50 | | Ahrens | Bosch Cycling Team | 65.5 | 6 | 250 | 100 | 2.50 |
Some shockingly overpaid U23 riders. 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-05-2020 09:03
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Aside from Albini's steal attempt-inflated wage, glad to have got myself off those lists 
Great work with all the mini-previews Ripley, interesting stuff to tide us over until the season begins
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 17-05-2020 13:19
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Great work with the preview Ripley
I think the position you've mentioned us is about right (or so I hope  , one relegation is enough for a season!). Interesting to see that we'll dominate the climbing in the U23s this time. But knowing our record with guys like Porte, we'll probably not!
Degenkolb and Yates on the overpaid list is no surprise as we had to go all out to keep/get them.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 17-05-2020 16:16
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Phinney is not overpaid I contest!!!!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 03:33
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| Shonak |
Posted on 17-05-2020 19:43
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Due to training Herrada was far below his wage last year, this year his success got up with him. Hopefully he will deliver also this year. Competition has never been harder
Van Keirsbulck suprisinly.cheap after the monster season he had, Bardet less so. Hope.for Suntory he will finally ride like his stats suggest.
Barguil arguably the best rider in the world for this year. He will crush.
Thank you ripley, great posts. Love it.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ripley |
Posted on 17-05-2020 21:11
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Phinney is not overpaid I contest!!!!
Well, maybe slightly. "overpaid" may have been a poor choice, most of these riders easily earned their wage by their performances last season. Here are all riders earning over 1000 sorted by their prestige points from last season divided by their new wage:
| Name | Team | Nat | AVG | Wage | Pts | Pts/W | | Froome | Specialized - Sony | GBR | 79.2 | 1025 | 2637 | 2.57 | | Betancur | Liberty Seguros | COL | 79.5 | 1450 | 2869 | 1.98 | | Van Poppel | Filliers – Mora | NED | 80.1 | 1225 | 2380 | 1.94 | | Van Keirsbulck | Filliers – Mora | BEL | 80.4 | 1200 | 2308 | 1.92 | | Nibali | Italo | ITA | 81.3 | 1380 | 2390 | 1.73 | | Herklotz | Bosch Cycling Team | GER | 78.8 | 1300 | 2232 | 1.72 | | Contador | Sevilla Cycling Team | ESP | 81.7 | 1700 | 2902 | 1.71 | | Herrada | Liberty Seguros | ESP | 80.7 | 1350 | 2280 | 1.69 | | Demare | Team Alitalia | FRA | 79.2 | 1450 | 2419 | 1.67 | | Sagan | CarbonSports | SVK | 80.1 | 1725 | 2854 | 1.65 | | Bouhanni | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | FRA | 79.9 | 1025 | 1695 | 1.65 | | Mohoric | Grupo Argos - Quala | SLO | 78.5 | 1175 | 1906 | 1.62 | | Aru | Ceramica Panaria | ITA | 81.7 | 1845 | 2946 | 1.60 | | Quintana | Grupo Argos - Quala | COL | 81.8 | 1675 | 2584 | 1.54 | | Vanmarcke | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | BEL | 80.9 | 1045 | 1607 | 1.54 | | Barguil | Allianz - BMW | FRA | 82.0 | 1600 | 2414 | 1.51 | | Bardet | Suntory Lucozade Sport | FRA | 81.5 | 1350 | 1980 | 1.47 | | Boasson Hagen | VisitUkraine | NOR | 77.5 | 1125 | 1558 | 1.38 | | Martin | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | IRL | 79.4 | 1100 | 1520 | 1.38 | | Kittel | CarbonSports | GER | 80.9 | 1330 | 1726 | 1.30 | | Kwiatkowski | Vittel - Havas | POL | 80.9 | 1500 | 1911 | 1.27 | | Degenkolb | Lufthansa | GER | 79.6 | 1580 | 1858 | 1.18 | | Phinney | Vittel - Havas | USA | 79.3 | 1600 | 1405 | 0.88 | | Van Garderen | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | USA | 79.8 | 1500 | 1283 | 0.86 | | Yates | Lufthansa | GBR | 78.9 | 1400 | 1145 | 0.82 | | Majka | Aviva Cycling Team | POL | 80.8 | 1360 | 926 | 0.68 |
Froome tops the list, though he has declined, of course. Otherwise Betancur seems to be the best value for money. At the bottom are the FA signings and steals, Aviva's new captain once again in last position. Let's hope it really was his twin Lafar racing last season.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-05-2020 21:25
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World Champion
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Ripley wrote:
Let's hope it really was his twin Lafar racing last season.
But that would mean... no... 
What a final twist that would be! Remember, if one of them only communicates in wolflike howls and moans, it's Rafal, he's a real whinging crybaby.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 17-05-2020 22:43
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These lists are awesome Ripley! Im confident my guys will be higher up those in this season though
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-05-2020 22:59
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Lovely lists, especially that last one with my two stars high up.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 18-05-2020 16:17
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Here's another list I came up with: Most skill points per wage. The best are all on a min wage, here is the list for all riders with 900+ skill points, all earning 100:
| Last Name | Team | AVG | FL | M | HI | TT | PR | CB | SP | AC | DH | FT | ST | RS | RC | W | Sk | S/W | | Egner | Bosch | 71.1 | 73 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 71 | 69 | 71 | 100 | 915 | 9.15 | | Kerby | CarbonSports | 70.9 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 71 | 66 | 69 | 100 | 914 | 9.14 | | Vogt | Lufthansa | 71.4 | 73 | 65 | 69 | 69 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 71 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 69 | 71 | 100 | 914 | 9.14 | | Rabitsch | CarbonSports | 70.8 | 72 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 67 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 75 | 72 | 69 | 71 | 100 | 912 | 9.12 | | Skujins | CarbonSports | 71.4 | 74 | 67 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 67 | 69 | 100 | 911 | 9.11 | | Umerbekov | Grupo Argos | 71.5 | 73 | 68 | 70 | 68 | 67 | 68 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 70 | 100 | 911 | 9.11 | | Schiewer | Team Alitalia | 71.6 | 73 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 68 | 68 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 72 | 100 | 911 | 9.11 | | Van der Haar | CarbonSports | 71.5 | 73 | 66 | 69 | 67 | 64 | 72 | 71 | 68 | 78 | 75 | 70 | 67 | 69 | 100 | 909 | 9.09 | | Andersen | Grupo Argos | 71.4 | 73 | 65 | 69 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 72 | 71 | 73 | 73 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 100 | 909 | 9.09 | | Le Bon | CarbonSports | 71.2 | 74 | 66 | 69 | 71 | 71 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 70 | 100 | 908 | 9.08 | | Barton | Grupo Argos | 70.6 | 74 | 68 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 100 | 908 | 9.08 | | Smukulis | Polestar | 71.6 | 72 | 65 | 67 | 72 | 73 | 69 | 68 | 69 | 72 | 74 | 69 | 67 | 71 | 100 | 908 | 9.08 | | D. Van Winden | Aviva | 71.3 | 74 | 63 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 66 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 100 | 907 | 9.07 | | Reis | Santos | 71.6 | 74 | 66 | 67 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 71 | 67 | 69 | 100 | 907 | 9.07 | | Gavenda | KBC Godiva | 71.3 | 72 | 64 | 71 | 66 | 66 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 100 | 905 | 9.05 | | Torres | Peugeot | 71.7 | 73 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 69 | 67 | 72 | 72 | 70 | 72 | 71 | 68 | 69 | 100 | 904 | 9.04 | | Von Folsach | Lufthansa | 70.9 | 74 | 65 | 69 | 69 | 68 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 67 | 69 | 100 | 904 | 9.04 | | Heuverswijn | KBC Godiva | 71.4 | 72 | 67 | 69 | 65 | 65 | 70 | 68 | 71 | 71 | 77 | 72 | 68 | 69 | 100 | 904 | 9.04 | | Schachmann | Team Alitalia | 71.4 | 73 | 65 | 67 | 68 | 67 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 75 | 70 | 67 | 69 | 100 | 903 | 9.03 | | Habtu | Vittel - Havas | 71.6 | 72 | 63 | 66 | 67 | 67 | 72 | 69 | 69 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 100 | 902 | 9.02 | | Kavaliauskienis | Volkswagen | 71.2 | 71 | 66 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 70 | 66 | 68 | 74 | 66 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 100 | 902 | 9.02 | | Shirota | Santos | 71.1 | 73 | 69 | 70 | 66 | 64 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 72 | 73 | 72 | 68 | 69 | 100 | 902 | 9.02 | | McCluskey | Aviva | 70.8 | 70 | 65 | 69 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 68 | 69 | 74 | 68 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 100 | 901 | 9.01 | | Hnik | KBC Godiva | 70.9 | 73 | 66 | 68 | 66 | 65 | 69 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 71 | 68 | 68 | 100 | 901 | 9.01 |
Carbonsports is especially well represented. But Egner tops the list with his 915 skill points. If you want more skill points, you have to pay more than a minumum wage. Here's the next group taking us up to 932 skill points:
| Name | Team | AVG | FL | M | HI | TT | PR | CB | SP | AC | DH | FT | ST | RS | RC | W | Sk | S/W | | Meyer | Aviva | 72.1 | 74 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 73 | 71 | 70 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 74 | 120 | 919 | 7.66 | | Vermote | Lufthansa | 72.2 | 73 | 63 | 71 | 73 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 72 | 120 | 917 | 7.64 | | González | Liberty Seguros | 72.6 | 74 | 68 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 73 | 74 | 71 | 69 | 69 | 140 | 923 | 6.59 | | Sørensen | Steelseries CT | 72.5 | 75 | 66 | 69 | 72 | 69 | 69 | 72 | 72 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 67 | 70 | 140 | 922 | 6.59 | | Dorado | Liberty Seguros | 72.5 | 74 | 65 | 70 | 67 | 67 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 74 | 72 | 74 | 67 | 71 | 140 | 917 | 6.55 | | Jacobsen | Santos | 71.7 | 71 | 67 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 145 | 918 | 6.33 | | Quintana | Grupo Argos | 72.9 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 69 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 76 | 73 | 69 | 72 | 150 | 929 | 6.19 | | Roosen | CCC | 72.9 | 75 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 150 | 920 | 6.13 | | Sicard | Vittel - Havas | 72.6 | 74 | 70 | 71 | 65 | 66 | 73 | 72 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 68 | 72 | 155 | 921 | 5.94 | | Onofrei | VisitUkraine | 73.1 | 76 | 67 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 71 | 71 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 160 | 932 | 5.83 |
As you can see, the bang-for-your-buck decreases very quickly. Onofrei's 11 more skill points than Sicard's don't even make up for +5 in wage. Any rider earning over 1000 has a ratio below 1.0, of course.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-05-2020 20:44
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I'd now be interested in the same assessment but dividing skill-points into primary, secondary and tertiary stats... |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-05-2020 21:06
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I tried a very different approach for my preview this time...just click on the logo
Please let me know what you make out of this idea and whether this is actually interesting or you'd prefer a more "conservative" approach for future previews. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-05-2020 22:18
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*opens the link*
*hey this is a great idea!*
*gonna quickly watch this one before going to sleep*
*sees video length*
Looking forward to this tomorrow!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 22-05-2020 02:39
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Really enjoyed that Croatia, interesting way to do it and liked the video/podcast format to mix it up. Agree quite a lot with your assessment of us and probably your final placement having us lagging slightly behind the main promotion contenders but not entirely out of it with some luck and maximised leaders. Hopefully our extra guys with the multi-terrain domestiques plus Siskevicius and Albini can make up for the lack of proper terrain depth anywhere. I have managed to keep it to four or five Siskevicius-lead races (such as VDK De Panne, Kobenhavn and Dunkerque where he traditionally is very very good) outside of those raced by our leaders as you said would be a problem so hopefully they go okay - Chaves doing well with his opportunities and Wackermann racing to his potential will be key to our fortunes I guess. Appo making use of his slightly updated HI stat would also be appreciated but there's a lot of riders like him so he could get buried.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 22-05-2020 03:49
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Enjoyed it as well. Was interesting to hear how someone else thought through the teams and the balance - and not just the outcomes you get in a written preview. You didn't need to apologize for your English.
On KBC - you made me nervous about my planning - not sure I have Henao right might have focused him too much on stage races and and not enough on hills. I guess time will tell. I love Van Bilsen, I was banking on decent cobble, strong sprint guys doing well on CT cobbles so nice to hear someone with experience in the ICL say that.
You should do a mid season update to see how your predictions are fairing.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 22-05-2020 08:15
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Very cool Croatia, really enjoy listening to it Will you do the same for WT?
Edited by Shonak on 22-05-2020 08:39
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ripley |
Posted on 22-05-2020 08:38
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Greast work, croatia! Sure, could have been shorter, but you have a pleasant voice - you should narrate audio books for children's books.
As for the planning of the unmanaged teams, which I believe I mostly did: The weaker teams I planned as well as possible, but as we discussed beforehand, not the stronger teams. For example, Moser didn't get the best planning, nor did Herklotz.
I disagree a little about the importance of punchers, at least on the continental level. There are so many races to choose from that you can specialise if you plan well enough. Even the "monoculture" of Cymru Wales should be ok, I'm pretty sure they'll do better than your prediction.
On the other hand I also think the salmon coloured teams (Specialized, Bosch, Shell) will do better than your predictions, they remind me of my WPOS formula which also doesn't rate them highly. But those leaders, Froome and Herklotz especially, will probably score a lot of points and single-handedly push their teams higher up in the table.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 22-05-2020 09:53
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@all: Thanks for the nice words
@jandal: yours is really one of the very interesting teams - I can imagine you coming out on top at the end, but at the end falling to midtable is also a possibility...at the end of the day it's a lot about planning in CT
@Ulrich: A mid-season update could happen, I'm curious about how many people would be really interested by that but let's see when it's time Well I was thinking more about the classics as he's got such a good skillset for those races that end on a hill-top finish, but at the same time that of course translates to stage races as well. As said, I think you have a very good chance to be the best new team the way you built your team.
@Shonak: probably yes...I think I may find the time today or tomorrow
@Ripley: while I agree on the opportunities about diversification, I think having a puncheur to attend all those punchy classics can prove to be absolutely vital. Of course, you can do well without one, but these classics just have a very good points/race day ratio if you attend them competitively, and really can turn the season late on with the Italian classics coming in then.
While I agree on the Salmon coloured teams and that they could at least overtake the teams from the tier ahead, I do think they'd have to maximize the points coming from leaders. Knowing that their managers not have been the most active in the planning process I'd trust the teams with managers to overcome those peak riders with good planning of deep rosters.
Still, you're absolutely right that Froome and Herklotz will demolish races. but they, maybe more than others, have a role of representation in the teams national focusses to fulfill, which may prevent them from lifting the teams farther up than midtable.
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