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Post Danmark Rundt Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:09
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 Post Danmark Rundt
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Preview
Welcome to the Post Danmark Rundt, a ManGame staple sind 2008. It’s a hard-fought race with often just a few seconds between riders in the GC, so we’re hopefully in for a few good days of high-quality racing.
Three stages, including the opener, give the sprinters ample opportunity to duel for stage wins and a day or two in the yellow jersey. Two of stages are pretty straightforward, only day two provides a little additional difficulty with a few hills here and there, but it has traditionally been a sprinter’s day nonetheless - for the most part.
The other two stages will be decisive for the GC. First, we have the only road stage that is expected to give us any time gaps. A lot of very short, steep climbs await the riders on stage 3, and those who don’t have the best time trialing skills will want to make the race as hard as they can. But historically, the gaps won’t be big enough to keep those time trialists with decent puncheur skills at bay, as the final time trial is just too long - and it has gotten even longer this year. With that in mind, the main competitors for the GC will be the top time trialists that should make it through the hills without losing too much time.
| TT | HI | RS | FL | | TT | HI | RS | FL |  Coppel | 82 | 75 | 77 | 76 |  Izagirre | 77 | 81 | 72 | 71 |  Durbridge | 81 | 67 | 74 | 73 |  Pokälä | 77 | 71 | 73 | 70 | | Viennet | 80 | 67 | 75 | 72 |  Martin | 77 | 70 | 72 | 72 |  Fraile | 79 | 72 | 76 | 69 | Eaton | 77 | 69 | 76 | 75 |  Cornu | 79 | 70 | 73 | 73 |  Fominykh | 77 | 67 | 71 | 74 |  Ignatiev | 78 | 73 | 71 | 78 |  Bazhkou | 76 | 75 | 75 | 71 | | Goncalves | 78 | 71 | 72 | 70 |  Vandousselaere | 76 | 69 | 72 | 74 | | Mullen | 78 | 70 | 74 | 75 |  Van Zandbeek | 76 | 69 | 71 | 73 | | Tennant | 78 | 69 | 76 | 77 | Sepulveda | 75 | 77 | 73 | 70 |  Campenaerts | 78 | 69 | 73 | 71 | Gallopin | 75 | 74 | 78 | 75 |  Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 68 | 71 | 70 | Ramos Ticona | 75 | 74 | 71 | 69 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 74 | 75 | 71 |  Kuboki | 75 | 73 | 74 | 73 | | Koren | 77 | 73 | 74 | 72 | Abreu | 75 | 73 | 71 | 73 |  Steensen | 77 | 72 | 73 | 74 | De Luna | 75 | 71 | 72 | 67 |
Two names obviously stand out here: Coppel and Izagirre. The French is not only the best pure time trialist, he is also easily the best puncheurs of that top tier of TT riders. In contrast, Izagirre is an elite puncheur with really good time trialing skills. For both, it mainly comes down to how selective the hilly stage 3 will be.
As is customary in time trial heavy races, cycleYorkshire has a strong presence with Durbridge, Viennet and Tennant. They are also among the worst riders uphill, so it’s possible that they’re out of contention before we reach the final day. Last year, however, we saw Marlen Zmorka miss out on the overall win by just three seconds, and he is in the same ballpark as a puncheur. Tennant himself was fifth last year.
Ignatiev won this race in 2017 and finished third last year, and he’s among the top favorites again. In 2018, he took stage 2 with a late attack, gaining 34 seconds on the peloton. Other riders with a fighting spirit, who could try to do something similar to boost their GC chances include Nepomnyachsniy, the aforementioned Tennant, Campenaerts or Gallopin, although only the latter has a good acceleration to get away in the first place.
Fraile is among the better puncheurs of the elite time trialists and should come here with high ambitions. On the lower end of TT ability, Bazhkou, Sepulveda and a few others will try to do something on the hilly stage to make that as selective as possible.
| TT | HI | RS | FL | | TT | HI | RS | FL | | Kittel | 81 | 64 | 70 | 75 | Li | 78 | 61 | 68 | 75 | | Dillier | 80 | 64 | 77 | 70 | Ligthart | 78 | 58 | 66 | 72 | | Dempster | 79 | 64 | 74 | 74 | Verona | 77 | 62 | 75 | 71 |  Mottin | 79 | 61 | 74 | 69 | Archbold | 77 | 62 | 71 | 73 | | Haugard | 79 | 60 | 77 | 72 | Laizer | 77 | 58 | 71 | 70 |  Sterobo | 78 | 63 | 69 | 70 | Van Niekerk | 76 | 66 | 73 | 74 |
For these riders, it seems unlikely - although not entirely impossible - that they would be in GC contention ahead of the final time trial. They still target that day for a good result and in case of Kittel and Dillier with a good shot at the stage win. Notably, Duolingo has another two strong riders for this stage in addition to Cornu, with Dempster and Archbold. Alongside cycleYorkshire, they have a good claim to be the strongest TT team here.
| HI | AC | RS | TT | | HI | AC | RS | TT | | Claeys | 83 | 73 | 68 | 64 |  Hugentobler | 77 | 76 | 69 | 58 | | Izagirre | 81 | 64 | 72 | 77 | Sepulveda | 77 | 73 | 73 | 75 | | Gautier | 80 | 77 | 72 | 64 | Zakarin | 77 | 73 | 73 | 68 |  Waeytens | 80 | 73 | 70 | 65 | Bru | 77 | 72 | 65 | 54 | | Dowsett | 80 | 71 | 69 | 64 | Mutsumine | 77 | 71 | 70 | 64 | | Trofimov | 79 | 70 | 72 | 73 | Le Gac | 77 | 69 | 74 | 60 | | Barrio | 79 | 67 | 63 | 58 | Gougeard | 77 | 68 | 71 | 67 | | Quevedo | 78 | 75 | 72 | 65 | Selander | 76 | 76 | 71 | 63 | | Bellis | 78 | 75 | 71 | 62 | Kanerva | 76 | 74 | 68 | 70 | | Palini | 78 | 74 | 68 | 66 | Fumeaux | 76 | 70 | 70 | 65 | | Duchesne | 77 | 79 | 72 | 68 | Goh | 76 | 68 | 74 | 70 |
These are the riders who should fight for the stage win on day three, but are most likely not going to be in contention for the higher GC positions because of their time trialing. Izagirre and Sepulveda are the exceptions, listed here again just to put their uphill skills in context.
Alongside the Iberia rider, Claeys is the obvious favorite. He’s the best puncheur with decent acceleration. Gautier and Duchesne are the quickest riders here, if it comes down to a sprint from a smaller group, they could be the names to watch alongside Bellis, the best sprinter on this list.
Other than that, this pool is pretty deep, hard to make any predictions. Waeytens, Dowsett and Trofimov are probably the best bets of the riders not mentioned yet.
| Leader | SP | AC | FL | RS | Support | SP | AC | FL | RS | | Lo Cicero | 84 | 78 | 72 | 63 | Matthews | 79 | 79 | 76 | 67 | | Guarnieri | 82 | 81 | 76 | 76 | Selig | 79 | 81 | 71 | 68 | | Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 74 | 69 | Feiereisen | 77 | 78 | 74 | 68 |  Boeckmans | 81 | 83 | 73 | 71 | | | | | | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 74 | 70 | | | | | | | Appollonio | 81 | 78 | 74 | 66 | Kvist | 77 | 78 | 75 | 75 | | Enger | 81 | 78 | 73 | 73 | | | | | | | Vantomme | 81 | 76 | 72 | 63 | | | | | | | Itami | 80 | 82 | 75 | 67 | Hayakawa | 79 | 79 | 73 | 68 | | Kip | 80 | 82 | 69 | 63 | Colbrelli | 79 | 75 | 74 | 72 | | Manninen | 80 | 80 | 74 | 75 | | | | | | | Salleh | 80 | 80 | 70 | 65 | Page | 78 | 79 | 75 | 72 | | Van Asbroeck | 80 | 78 | 75 | 72 | Bonifazio | 78 | 78 | 77 | 73 | | Lavoine | 80 | 78 | 73 | 64 | Tewelde | 78 | 77 | 74 | 72 | | Reinhardt | 79 | 84 | 71 | 66 | | | | | | | Houle | 79 | 78 | 78 | 71 | Habtom | 77 | 78 | 75 | 75 | | Wippert | 78 | 82 | 70 | 70 | Havik | 79 | 76 | 73 | 68 | | Santos | 78 | 78 | 76 | 72 | | | | | | | Markus | 77 | 78 | 73 | 68 | | | | | |
Similarly, there are a lot of good sprinters here. Lo Cicero and Guarnieri, who recently dueled at the Riga - Jurmala classic - with the better end for the Delveaux rider-, are the premier guys to beat and they also have the best team support. Europcar, as usual, comes with more than just two top guys, as Lay and Aberasturi didn’t even make this list.
Other than those two, many riders could fancy their chances for good results on the three flat stages. Vanderbiest and Boeckmans are possibly the quickest, but Manninen, for example, has proven himself with a few stage wins this year already as well. As is often the case, timing might be more important than raw speed.
Finally, here’s the full startlist:
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| Ad Bot |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:12
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We could really use something here, but the field is quite impressive..
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:14
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Two stage wins for Boekmans minimum. And also probably the maximum.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:21
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Everything should line up for Coppel here, PDR is one of my favourite races to watch.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:27
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Shonak wrote:
Two stage wins for Boekmans minimum. And also probably the maximum.
If that is the case everything goes as we can possible hope for, and we will leave Denmark very happy.  , but I expect Guarnieri to be the sprinter here and two podiums would be more than we can ask for.
Thanks for the preview
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:44
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Wow, big field. Hope Houle can stick around on the hilly stage and maybe do something there. After Japan not super sure whether he will bother to sprint so won't make any comments on that front  Bazhkou hasn't clicked yet at all this season and not sure here will be the place where it happens, would love dearly to be proven wrong!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:55
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That time trial wil ruin any chance of Claeys getting a good result, Janse van Rensburg will end up losing time on the hilly stage and Vantomme will do his usual thing of not sprinting. If one these three can prove me wrong I'm happy.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 22-04-2020 13:04
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Not really sure what to expect from here, and don't expect much to be honest. The TT specialists are having a bad season and I don't expect it to improve much here. A Top 20 looks possible looking at the startlist but a Top 30 would probably be a more realistic hope. Let's see if we can squeeze into any of the sprints with Wippert, and less likely, with Havik.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 22-04-2020 15:28
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Nothing like being embarrassed on home turf!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 22-04-2020 20:39
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We have a pretty strong team here, so hoping we can get something out of this race. Ignatiev hasn't particularly impressed this season, but this is a race that should suit him well. Top 5 would be great. Gallopin should also be able to get a decent GC result. The points jersey will obviously also be a target, with Guarnieri present. Some decent challengers, and some question marks in our train, but still expecting good things from the Italian.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:02
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Another packed startlist. I was hoping this could be another Olympia's but there are stronger riders here. It all depends on the hilly stage, but hopefully either Trofimov or preferably Cornu can pass that test with serenity.
Hard to look past Coppel for the overall win. Izagirre should be up there too, but then it looks wide open for grabs.
Good luck everyone and thanks for another great preview cunego!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:16
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Textbook reverse jinx, well done 
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:34
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Well, I have no idea how that happened. If it was indeed a reverse jinx, I have no idea why it only started working now, given that my negativity is nothing new.
Obviously I'm thrilled to get a win here in our home race. We had to skip it last year, and to come back with vengeance is great. And yeah, the sprint AI was still trash - just look at all the great sprinters who didn't even try - but like everyone, I'm a hypocrite, and I'll be more than happy to celebrate when the mess works out for me.
We've already achieved more here than I expected. I have no GC expectations, and we have a stage win in the bag. Plus, it's always nice to get those few extra points from leader's jerseys, given our relegation fight. Now I'd really like to take a stab at the points jersey. Taking that home in our sponsor nation would feel really good, even if the point totals for it don't matter much.
Whatever happens, I will not fall into the trap of raising my expectations! I have already gotten enough dopamine from this race to last me until the Tour of America if I ration it properly.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:39
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Vantomme will suck for the rest of the race
(please reverse jinx work for me as well)
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:40
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Ill take a 3rd place. We actually could have a good race for the first time in a while but Im not holding my breath.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 23-04-2020 16:41
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Thanks cunego, great report and congratz to baseballlover/Carlsberg
Boeckmans seemed to have been blocked a bit, lets hope for a better result tomorrow.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 23-04-2020 17:37
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Okay with 4th today, given Lo Ciceros terrible starting position, however, the sprint train needs to step up a lot, we can't continue like this. Thanks for the report!  |
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| ryant |
Posted on 23-04-2020 17:44
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Enger sucks, nothing surprising I guess
We should have one or two options for the GC, I just hope the hill stage isn't too selective as Bellis should be a favourite for it as well. Just hope the other stages are better...
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 23-04-2020 18:32
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Let's try again tomorrow
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 23-04-2020 21:58
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Yeah wasn't expecting Houle to sprint but that's still really frustrating that not even Habtom would have a go. Hopefully he can do something on Stage 3 or, similar to Slovenie, we can force some echelons on one of the flat days for him for GC purposes .
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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