First up an overview about which votes came when:
(at the top of the column the recipient of the vote, each row for a new vote, number before the name is the number of votes on the recipient after the vote, in brackets the remaining number of votes on the former recipient after changing the vote)
| Croatia | Marco | Jdog | No lynch | hillis | trekbmc | Sleeps |
| 1.bbl | | | | | | |
| | 1. Croatia | | | | |
| 2. jdog | | | | | | |
| | | 1. kandes | | | |
| | | | 1. ryant | | |
| | 2. jaxika | | | | |
| 1. Croatia | -Croatia(1) | | | | |
| 2. Bikex | | | | | |
| | | | 2. df_trek | | |
| | | | -df_trek(1) | 1. df_trek | |
| 3. quadsas | | | | | |
| 3. Marco | | | | | | |
| 4. knockout | | | | | | |
| 4. ryant | | | -ryant(0) | | |
| 5. hillis | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 1. trekbmc |
(this should give a decent overview when each decision was made and how the situation was at the time of posting the vote)
9 out of 12(+trekbmc) voted on either Croatia or Marco. I interpret this that the mafia had an interest to vote for one of them too (Marco = mafia) but they could have also adjusted their day 1 strategy after reading the interpretation of the mafia standing on the sidelines in a town vs town battle.
Part 1 - Spreading the vote around
69h left: BBL votes for Croatia
This vote doesnt say much. First vote of the day, it didnt look likely to get a lynch here, doesnt say a lot about his allignment.
53h: Croatia -> jdog
52h: jdog -> Croatia
Jdog with a "No U" vote on Croatia. I usually don't like it but its jdog and we've seen multiple other players do the same thing earlier: trek vs me, Croatia vs bbl, quadsas vs everyone who mentions him,... I dont think this is really much of a mafia move coming in this situation: jdog never shown good allignment reading skills and if Croatia gets lynched this might not look too good without really needing that vote here already. So i think this is more likely a genuine town vote
51h: Df_trek defends Croatia
50h: Kandes defends active players ("suggest a deeper look into the more quiet players like marco..."#222), votes to lynch noone
I'll get to this one later.
27h: ryant votes hillis. Claims it is just an activity vote
23h: jaxika votes jseadog (2nd vote).
Hard to make anything out of this. Could be a genuine read by a townie but could also be a mafia thing. Croatia is the only one with two votes at this point so i kinda would rule out jaxika and jdog as a mafia couple.
21h: Jdog makes his mafia promise post.
21h: Croatia switches from jdog to marco (1st vote)
20h: Bikex votes on marco (2nd vote)
This vote by Bikex looks pretty good to me. Only Croatia has two votes and backing another one with 1 vote looks good. When I want to read it from a mafia perspective then i'd say it could be to make it a marco vs croatia vote instead of a croatia vs hillis vote but it reeks more like a townish vote so far.
20h: Df trek with an activity vote on hillis (2nd vote)
10h: Df trek changes to trekbmc
Croatia and Marco are at 2 votes each at this point. Would be a good way to stay out of the way as mafia. Voting the completely inactive trekbmc
Part 2 - Piling up the votes
9h: quadsas votes Marco (3rd)
8h: I defend marco arguing that he looks terrible and that a mafia member would probably at least look like he attempts to make some reads / is interested
8h: quadsas says he has jdog as top target but doesnt vote for him because there is no lynch train on him
... further bickering between him and me because i think his vote should be on his top target at this point which he thinks is suspicious...
Note: before his vote the vote count was:
2: croatia
2: marco
1: jdog
1: hillis
Had he voted for jdog there would have been a three way tie. I have no clue what to make of this. Any suggestions?
3h: marco votes for croatia to "save himself". Later states that jdog is his top read.
Note: Neither him or quadsas make any effort to lynch jdog instead who could have been in the lead by now. How are we supposed to read that? Mafia members that want to read their mate as suspicious without risking to lynch him by accident? Mafia members Town members that don't think a lynch is possible there? Townies that have no overview about the vote count?
2,5h: I vote for Croatia
This looks ugly.
This is the go ahead vote: 4 on croatia vs 3 on marco
51min: ryant votes for marco
Due to the power of the politician Marco would be lynched at this point.
22min: hillis votes for croatia
If marco is mafia then this looks very bad for him (ironic that i write it?). Yes he stated it earlier that croatia is his biggest mafia read but even that was at a time when marco, croatia (and himself - although mostly activity votes) were tied with 2 so if he were mafia, preparing a later vote here totally makes sense. Definitely a guy to watch closer in case of marco being mafia. It would have been a big risk to cast that vote but i was already getting lots of heat because my vote came pretty much out of nowhere so he might have thought it would be worth taking the risk. Actually would also make sense for him if marco isnt mafia because croatia is (seen as) the stronger player.
4min: Croatia claims power role
This is the point where i totally panicked. I think that some mafia members would pretty much do the same post because I'd argue that post is worth an attempt a 100% of the time. A single townie panicking and removing his vote and the mafia member would have stolen the town a day a misslynch even when the counter claim comes the next day. Does this make the decision to stick with the vote correct? I have no clue but remember that we only had three or four minutes to make that call. Hard to make a good decision in such a short time window.
1min: kandes long post: gonna make a seperate post.
. I think the town would benefit more from others talking instead of my loud mouth interfering or driving the discussion too much. I was planning to post a bunch of thoughts closer to the deadline where people might remember them better and so you can see other's thoughts on this day that were not influenced by me but if the general concensus is that you want my thoughts now and need those to evaluate me better / or would be open to discuss them (i didnt feel like my day 1 vote analysis did really spark a discussion) then i will share my detailed thoughts tomorrow (hopefully)
I'm straight spitting facts when I tell ya I'm just a townie my man. Look a few pages ago also where someone posted about when I was mafia I went through the game without deliberately stating I was pro town. I dont lie. I'm a townie. You'll see it one way or the other.
