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Mafia X | u up? x
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:35
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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jseadog1 wrote:
I ensured that I did not break any rules. I did not try to bribe someone or offer anything for information. If you think my move was immoral I'm sorry.
despite I also somehow disagree the way it came out, seems you got some trust between the city, I hope this can bring you to make more deep analysis on players and what happened besides Croatia stuff.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:40
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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df_Trek wrote:
jseadog1 wrote:
I ensured that I did not break any rules. I did not try to bribe someone or offer anything for information. If you think my move was immoral I'm sorry.
despite I also somehow disagree the way it came out, seems you got some trust between the city, I hope this can bring you to make more deep analysis on players and what happened besides Croatia stuff.
It's a game and you play to win the game. I know for a 100% fact that the attention should not be wasted on me and I could very well be killed off by the mafia tonight so at least spend the rest of today having a useful discussion about someone else who could be a better target.
My message above probably just created a new rule for the next game but how its worded will be interesting 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 09:24
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:43
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Bikex wrote:
knockout wrote:
jseadog1 wrote:
If you lynch me and I prove to be mafia, I will not come to PCM.Daily for the remainder of 2020 and I will not organize any NFL prediction/fantasy games. That is how much I am promising you guys that I am TOWN.
Does the same count for the case that you don't get lynched today but end up being in the mafia?
I don't see why that is what you thought about first when reading jseadogs post? Asking this does not clarify anything. What's the point?
i kinda want to believe him.
Also pretty much this:
Bikex wrote:
In my opinion an incredibly poor post from jseadog. I'm not sure if we should include activities outside of this game on the page in here?
Even if I don't like that post, it removes jseadog from the top of my suspect list, as I doubt he would have put up such an extreme post if he was mafia.
If he is willing to clearly expand on that "promise" then it makes me further want to believe him.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:45
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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jseadog1 wrote:
It's a game and you play to win the game. I know for a 100% fact that the attention should not be wasted on me and I could very well be killed off by the mafia tonight so at least spend the rest of today having a useful discussion about someone else who could be a better target.
My message above probably just created a new rule for the next game but how its worded will be interesting
I just asked the same thing to you, I don't think that my message is interpretable as a point on you. I just want to say that your play style is usually very conservative, and atm you can push more imo
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:59
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Spoiler I stopped coloring the confirmed townies halfway through the post. Hope you dont mind.
Alright time to look at the day 1 action. I personally think that this + the action today is more important to finding mafia than the night kill. Most of the time the mafia is split up on different sides of the action. The most interesting thing to note for me on day one was that no bandwaggon really grew. The key question for me is whether that was because of mafia meddling trying to more or less subtly derail the lynch to someone townish which would hint towards trek being mafia or if the mafia mostly stood on the sidelines which would probably mean that trek might be innocent. I'll focus on the actions surrounding the waghlon-trek-me triangle.
(Note: i make some assumptions based on me being protown. Feel free to do the mind acrobatics with me being on the mafia)
94h left: croatia -> waghlon vote
48h left: sammy -> Jaxika vote
45h left: quadsas -> knockout vote
34h left: trekbmc -> Jaxika (2nd) vote (argues against knockout lynch without defending me)
33h left: Jaxika first post, doesnt point towards treks vote
29h left: df_trek likes trekbmc, no reads on me+waghlon
Not that much happened till this point. No notable waggons formed, not much action. The mafia doesnt need to react to anything anyway. with the exception of quadsas vote all are activity votes without any particular reasons.
25h left: my vote for trek. This is kinda a turning point since now the action speeds up a lot which doesnt necessarily mean that trek
25h left: quadsas attacks me again harshly
25h left: jdog downplays my argument
24h left: ryant downplays my argument
24h left: df_trek defends trek (follow up to previous post at 29h left)
22h left: marco doesnt want to see me lynched & play with lynch "if we can narrow it down to a few supect(s) but I'm not in favor of taking a shot in the dark"
21h left: no lynch vote by kandes
21h left: my follow up post on trek with his past games
20h left: Croatia sceptical of me but mostly in favor of no lynch or quadsas although because of him being annoying
One can defend someone on different ways: directly defending someone, attacking the attacker or derailing the argument elsewhere. in this case arguing for a no lynch is possible too. I dont condemn anybody here for doing so since i know my argument wasnt particularly strong. Quadsas' reaction felt naturally (and was super quick), no clue about jdog and with ryants post the immediate danger for a trek lynch seems to be gone and none of the no lynch votes were particularly surprising. Might be worth looking at them again if trek turns out to be mafia at some point
20h left: Waghlons first post
20h left: trek attacks me back strongly, votes for Bikex
I didnt like that second part of the post but is it scummy? My first thought was yes but with a few days distance I'm unsure. Looks more like trolling me because of being annoyed and should likely be a null read.
18h left: hillis defends me
16h left: df_trek tries to understand knockout vs trekbmc + reply of trek
10h left: croatia points towards people with low activity and vague posts
9h left: df_trek and knockout want to have waghlon explain a second vague post more
4,5h left: jaxika votes for trek (2nd vote)
This is a very interesting vote. Why? The momentum is totally against a trek lynch at this point and due to this vote trek suddenly looks like a real factor for the lynch again. Also the last direction seemed to move towards suspecting waghlon with the two most active guys who have driven a lot of the discussion the previous day questioning waghlon. This makes me 99,5% believe that a mafia combination of trekbmc and jaxika is impossible (far too risky with this little time) and also makes me believe that jaxika is the closest to a confirmed protown dude outside of ryant (knowing that neither me nor waghlon are mafia).
4h: ryant votes quadsas
4h: df_trek votes Waghlon (2nd vote)
4h: Waghlon votes me (2nd vote)
Now all of trek, me and Waghlon are on 2 votes with quadsas having the politician vote on him. If trek were mafia then there are now three paths to vote someone else to escape the lynch. Now i would assume that the mafia might not want to put all eggs into one basket but at least one partner would push another one of the mini waggons (or be on it already).
3h: df_trek loses a bit of his confidence in his trek read
2,5h: Croatia defends both trek and me pointing to his experiences of big fights often being town vs town and points to waghlon (where his vote is) and marco as suspects
This one could be interesting since this could be seen as someone trying to save trekbmc. However, Croatia slowly needed to make a good post like that. Sammys vote is on him (with 20h left #125) and df_trek and me had mentioned suspicions as well previously (#101) so this post makes total sense from a mafia perspective if trek is protown too. it also looks like a good post from a townie so this might not tell us too much about the assignments.
60 min left: quadsas defends trek+waghlon, renews his suspicions on me.
56 min left: jdog posts order of most likely town amongst tied at 2 votes guys: (from most likely town) waghlon-knockout-trek
8 min left: ryant changes from quadsas to waghlon (3rd vote) after nobody joined him on quadsas, still prefers quadsas though
5 min: ryant suggests to change to nobody to prove he is politician for real
4 min: jdog votes no lynch (2nd vote)
2 min: ryant changes to lynch nobody (3rd vote), asks jdog to remove his vote
1 min: knockout changes to lynch waghlon (3rd vote)
1 min: jdog changes to no vote (lynch nobody down to 2)
a lot of chaos but i dont see anything suspicious in the final minutes.
I dont think we see a lot of unnatural manipulation of the voting or opinions. The votes itself look all quite natural to me. The interesting ones to not have voted but participated in the discussion focussed around the trekbmc-knockout-waghlon action are jdog and trekbmc.
trekbmc: i dont really see any reason why a mafia player would risk not putting his vote on me or someone else by choice (other than unforseen absence) other than keeping me alive for a lengthy 1vs1 and that looked risky considering the vote counts
Jdog: I struggle to find a good interpretation for his behaviour in the final hours if he were mafia and trek town (not meaning the last 5 min). What was his intention? Being the watchdog to make a last minute final vote in case someone else switched to trek? doesnt look very jdoglike to me. i think he was rather genuine here.
Unsurpringly the two main influencing posts were by Croatia and df_trek. No matter which combination of assignments Croatia and trekbmc have, Croatias post makes a lot of sense to do so i think if someone influenced the discussion on trek-waghlon-me in bad faith to save him then it was df_trek: 1. Defending trekbmc himself and later pushing waghlon once trek is back in danger of getting lynched after the jaxika post. So if at one point one of the treks flips as mafia then i would want to take a very close look at the other one too.
However for now i think its a bit more likely that the mafia didnt really influence the voting on day 1 too much with all three lynch candidates (me, trekbmc, waghlon) being town.
tl;dr: I won't repeat my vote for trekbmc today nor do i think (right now) that i will vote for someone that participated more than necessary in the late stage of day (df_trek, jseadog, quadsas, obviously ryant). Doesnt mean all of them are town but i'd like to look elsewhere first. Also: I strongly believe jaxika to be town-alligned.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 00:59
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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df_Trek wrote:
jseadog1 wrote:
It's a game and you play to win the game. I know for a 100% fact that the attention should not be wasted on me and I could very well be killed off by the mafia tonight so at least spend the rest of today having a useful discussion about someone else who could be a better target.
My message above probably just created a new rule for the next game but how its worded will be interesting
I just asked the same thing to you, I don't think that my message is interpretable as a point on you. I just want to say that your play style is usually very conservative, and atm you can push more imo
Well in my opinion this is where we stand right now...
SAFE:
jseadog1
ryant
SEEM TO TRUST:
kandesbunzler26
df_trek
trekbmc
Bikex
NO IDEA
Marcovdw
quadsas
jaxika
knockout
hillis91
RAISES RED FLAGS
baseballlover312
Croatia14
While it may not be likely that Croatia14 and baseballover312 are working together, I am confident 80% that at least one of them is mafia and with no further leads to go on I am willing to get one of them lynched as in my eyes it will confirm the other to be mafia.
knockout is hard to tell for me. I have taken advantage of him in past games as mafia that in this game I finally have to actually dissect how he plays. He is a strong player in my eyes which makes it even harder.
Many people that I have in the no idea category simply have not played enough and in past games I have been adamant that this is unacceptable. So I am willing to vote any of the 7 names at the bottom of my list with the exception of possibly knockout so we can get better information on him.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 01:07
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
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While it may not be likely that Croatia14 and baseballover312 are working together, I am confident 80% that at least one of them is mafia and with no further leads to go on I am willing to get one of them lynched as in my eyes it will confirm the other to be mafia.
What on earth is this based one??
SEEM TO TRUST:
kandesbunzler26
df_trek
trekbmc
Bikex
Can you please elaborate on why you think like this? |
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-01-2020 01:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Why are people so sure that it is either bbl or croatia? can someone explain?
Croatia14 wrote:
I do consider quasdas and knockout the strongest mafia reads so far. Why? Because if I were one of those, I'd exactly play the game like they did if I was mafia.
Bbl <> croatia doesnt look too different from quadsas <> me, does it?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 01:44
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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knockout wrote:
Why are people so sure that it is either bbl or croatia? can someone explain?
I'm a lot influenced on what happened in first hours of day2, maybe too much, that's the reason why I want to extend my view and I'm starting to point somewhere else.
knockout wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
I do consider quasdas and knockout the strongest mafia reads so far. Why? Because if I were one of those, I'd exactly play the game like they did if I was mafia.
Bbl <> croatia doesnt look too different from quadsas <> me, does it?
I definitely need to take a deeper look in this. Also your post #285 enlighten me on what I forgot to analyze: what happened on 2-2-2 vote situation, this can be unfortunately hard now that many players at that time could also be offline and now we can't check it again...
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 01:45
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Host post:
jseadog1 wrote:
I ensured that I did not break any rules. I did not try to bribe someone or offer anything for information. If you think my move was immoral I'm sorry.
jseadog did not break any rules and obviously it's already happened so there's nothing I can do about it, but in the future (including the rest of this game please) I don't want this kind of thing to happen (referring to his claim he will quit daily if he isn't town). I'm doing some reading and thinking and I'll talk about it more at the end of the game over what the new rules surrounding it will be as there has to be some new rule next time.
Obviously he may just be lying (and I clearly can't say if he is or not  ) so it's not concrete proof of allegiance to say that and why it's not technically breaking the rules. But either way, it feels in the same vein of screenshotting PMs for role claims (which also can be faked) in terms of just not being in the spirit of the game/keeping it separate from the rest of the site.
If people have thoughts on it we can have a discussion once the game is done, for now just don't turn this edition into a contest of everybody threatening to quit the site until either the mafia lie or they are the only ones who don't do it |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 01:47
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
While it may not be likely that Croatia14 and baseballover312 are working together, I am confident 80% that at least one of them is mafia and with no further leads to go on I am willing to get one of them lynched as in my eyes it will confirm the other to be mafia.
What on earth is this based one??
The arguments back and forth earlier is a common way for mafia to work together to make one of the two seem safe. This is the possibility that you could both be mafia.
Admittedly, bbl has not been as active in the earlier part of the game as he usually is and his reasoning was because that person usually gets targeted or that there is not much activity.
I am not saying the possibility that one of you must be mafia is necessarily connected but I think the chances are high. Also, you targeting me multiple times in the game so far combined with how confident I am that I am townie makes me think you want to put a target on my back and get attention away from you for now.
SEEM TO TRUST:
kandesbunzler26
df_trek
trekbmc
Bikex
Can you please elaborate on why you think like this?
kandes because of him not posting any 'fluff'. He has only been making relevant points and keeping the conversation on track. He is not 'STIRRING THE POT'.
df_trek because of my experiences playing with him. Not to say that he is playing the game extremely different than normal, but the way he dissects the game and asks for opinions to generate conversation is a positive.
trek, I like post #124. Firstly, he is throwing shade to someone who was not very active. If he was mafia there really would not be much of a point to this. His entire post was just beneficial and descriptive.
Bikex, most recently calling me out for the way I revealed to truly be with the town. The mafia were probably scrambling behind the scenes when I said this and not really looking for reasons to post a counter claim or tell me what I did was 'wrong'. I like post #257, if you read his opinions, he really doesn't put a big target on anyones back. Usually the mafia at least points out a few people
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PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 02:49
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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Okey, the weekend is here and i got some proper time to be more active and actually throw my 2 cents in here. Good to see that inactive players get called out, it's important.
So, here it is. My view of the town so far:
trekbmc: He made a joke before the game started.
Also for anybody who doesn’t want to read the thousands of words knockout apparently never writes, there’s a simple two words you can post instead:
Lynch Knockout
That led to knockout going after him the first day. Im struggeling to put a clear read on him at this point.
df_trek: Having his eyes on me, trying to use my inactivity against me. Which is too a point fair, but to try and make my cleary stated "no vote" stance sound like i have an agenda is ludacris. This makes me automaticly think that you are trying to create a framing situation. I don't have a clear feel for you yet, since calling out inactive players is something im normally a fan of and makes me lean towards "pro town". But to make my no vote stance something negative when i've clearly stated why is a bit off putting. Im neatural towards him.
jseadog1: Behaves in my opinion a bit suspicious as he answers accusations with weird posts. His actions might be because of the heat that has been turned up on him lately, but still. Hard to understand the plan behind it all.
baseballlover312: Cleary states his reasons for what he does and i belive him at this point. He makes me feel like he's pro-town in the way he demands explanations from the town. My first bet for detective aswell. Would be benefital to know, if he is the detective, what he has found out from the first night. But, not until day 3 at the earliest.
ryant: The only "confirmed" pro town player so far. Not much more to say about it.
Croatia14: Might be the one i feel the most is leaning towards mafia at this point. The way he gets defensive is a bit odd to me. He deflects a lot so far which more of you have also pointed out, so nothing new here.
jaxika: Deflecting towards other players regarding their respective veiws and opinions. Voted Marco. Also has a public indorsement of jseadog in the same post. Also one of the knockout doubters in town. Neutral so far from me.
knockout: Mr. Long Posts. He kills you with length and quantity not necessarily quality all the time. He has experience worth more that most in this game, which makes me think that he has an agenda with every post he makes. Nothing wrong with that, but, for a man with limited time like me - it makes it hard to get a clear read on him.
kandesbunzler26: Seems pro town so far in my humble opinion.
Marcovdw: Hard for me to read. As he was not online due to time and what seems to be "life", which i can relate to. This might be a strategy aswell. A wolf in a sheeps clothes. No clear read for me here.
Bikex: Calling my posts weak and short. Sure, they've been of the shorter kind, but i havent had that much to contribute with yet. I've said early that im not a fan of the arguing early and the way we lynch. It makes it easier for the mafia. Is that what you don't like? Makes me think you are leaning towards mafia.
quadsas: Suprisingly calm this time around, which is nice to be honest. Has pointed out some inconsistensies so far, but nothing major in my opnion. Hard to point him either way on the scale.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 02:51
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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And for the lynch hungry df_trek, i will not make a lynch vote yet. Im going to see what more information and discussion comes our way before the deadline.
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-01-2020 03:43
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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@Bbl will you be there close to the deadline of the day?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 05:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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I should be online at least in the closing couple of hours. I was too busy to take everything in today, so hopefully I'll have time to reread and give some analysis tomorrow morning.
Quick reactions just from skimming:
- Marcovdw's post seemed to be lacking much impetus and was quite dismissive. Could be a red flag of a mafia lingerer. Could also just be a busy player not critiquing every detail.
- The others just joining in, like Bikex and Hillis haven't given me a true read yet, I'm gonna have to give their posts another look.
- I don't like Jdog's promise thing. I don't believe it's right to bring outside stuff into this almost like a threat or ultimatum. Besides, who would actually hold him to that outside of this game once it's over? It wouldn't help the site to have less productive activity from a good member. It's meaningless and quite suspect. I don't understand caring so much about your personal safety in this game unless you are a special role - which he could be, I won't rule that out. I think he had a right to defend himself against croatia, but he has definitely been erratic, and there are red flags.
- Why is no one asking where the hell trekbmc went?
I've said my piece, and I still think Croatia is the most suspicious to me. However, there are other leads, and I'm willing to change my vote if the town goes in a direction I can be convinced is more beneficial.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 10:31
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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hillis91 wrote:
df_trek: Having his eyes on me, trying to use my inactivity against me. Which is too a point fair, but to try and make my cleary stated "no vote" stance sound like i have an agenda is ludacris. This makes me automaticly think that you are trying to create a framing situation. I don't have a clear feel for you yet, since calling out inactive players is something im normally a fan of and makes me lean towards "pro town". But to make my no vote stance something negative when i've clearly stated why is a bit off putting. Im neatural towards him.
Ok, looking on how you are staunch on this maybe I misunderstood your point of view...
When you say:
hillis91 wrote:
Me personally did not vote the first day because if feel we allways do this, like a wrote, we argue about silly stuff the first day and then we end up lynching a town member and the mafia gets a free kill during the day and then a nightkill. So instead of slowing the process down we speed it up. And we loose..
I did not vote on a lynch, based on that.
I feel like you are lined up with who doesn't want to lynch anyone, doesn't it? therefore:
This make much different, if you don't vote you don't contribute actively to avoid a lynch. If you vote Lynch nobody then yes that is usefull for the aim. So wasn't it your aim? Because if yes seems you say "ok want to show that I'm against to lynch someone but I'll do nothing to avoid a player to die"
But you brought much more opinions now, and as I said mine was an activity vote...I'm still on this vein and lynch trekbmc, as if I'm not wrong, the only player didn't write anything during day 2, and with his past on day 1 I think the town needs something by him.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 10:33
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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hillis91 wrote:
And for the lynch hungry df_trek, i will not make a lynch vote yet. Im going to see what more information and discussion comes our way before the deadline.
just to be aware, how you felt me lynch hungry?
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 25-01-2020 10:40
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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Anyway if my posts look again inquiring towards Hillis, I want to clarify that I found some not trivial goodies in his post that let me think he is pro-town more than others.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 25-01-2020 11:02
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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My two cents after going through most the posts (a lot of them were completely useless and scummy in a 'I am posting guys you see?!' way)
jseadog, bball, croatia spat I think was quite silly, there is a chance one of them is mafia, but it's hard to say. Easiest way would obviously be to lynch one and see the end result, which technically I would agree with, but probably not on PCM where we just like to argue and imagine things. And I believe the spat was the wrong thing to focus on, that's why I told knockout that I was waiting for that to quiet down and it did. I think jseadog looked by far the scummiest out of all three, not sure if just a bad townie or self-unaware mafioso, and that post with a promise was quite ridiculous, I tend to get rid of people who try these tactics, either you're town and you're ruining integrity of the game, or you're mafia. It's a win-win.
ryant said I looked like I was hiding something, but you didn't realise I explicitly said that I did?
I re-read some of the posts by knockout that I was iffy about, I still don't quite understand what were his intentions with some of them (most end up being quite open-ended), I guess I am fine with him for now, I would like him to be a bit louder and more brash, makes for a more fun game.
Basically.
lynch marcovdw
Empty and infrequent posts (seriously, they all say nothing), tried to fabricate heat on me for seemingly no reason, which is the biggest redflag. jseadog pointing out croatia's vote had some merit, whilst all marco did was basically make shit up to make me look scummy.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-01-2020 11:16
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Just a short update that I won't be there at the deadline most likely, as I'm at a conference atm and will have a Volleyball game at 5 PM daily time that will most likely last over the deadline. Will try to sneak in one more post while still at the conference.
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