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Mafia X | u up? x
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 16:39
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I reread Croatia's today posts...I have to say that the fact I thought what I wrote before reading his statements makes him a bit more pro town at this point.
But looking at BBL and jseadog votes I think that is very unlikely that both are mafia...or this could be a very stupid move.
I disagree also that is starting a train against Croatia. I hope that all townies thinks deeply before cast their vote because it's easy today to get a wrong target
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 16:43
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First of all I stick to no lynch, at least for now. For which reasons?
1) Simply to keep this option in mind.
2) I think that's important because it seems by now day 2 will be a duel between jseadog and Croatia (and who of them will be lynched) and that means most other topics and hints won't be hit by discussion or will mostly be ignored (willingly or in the heat of the moment). If it will be clear who will be lynched relatively early in the day, that's most probably a sign for the mafia being content with the course of things and us lynching another townie. At least it was in the last games.
3) For the reasons I stated in Day 1.
Now my 2 cents on the current topic(s).
Marcovdw wrote:
sammy seems like a pretty random kill. The mafia could either kill someone who is very active or who has a confirmed power role, and sammy was neither (as far as we know). Not suggesting that anyone who is active is mafia by default in this theory, but the mafia could use this randomness to confuse us and have us scrambling for leads again which we might have hoped to get from this night.
That's mostly what I would like you to consider, because it would be the way I'd choose the night kill as mafia for the benefit of missing connections between mafia and victim. The rest is up for the townies to make conclusions out of nothing and going for the first one or two players someone finds a lead against (no matter who exactly it is, as long as he's pro-town). That's how you deceive others the best: Let them do all the searching for leads and thinking of reasons by themselves and watch their fantasy work. Best of all: The most active pro-town players will do all the dirty work for you and get themselves in the line of fire sooner or later, probably getting lynched by their fellow townies.
Relating jseadog:
jseadog1 wrote:
Im a townie. Why admit that? Well, if you look in past games where I was mafia, I never straight out came in the open and said I was.
I play every game the same regardless of my alignment and you seem to consistently try to dodge that fact and say that I was mafia the past 2 games and am playing like a mafia again. Alignment has no effect.
This seems at least bad phrased as you are saying you're doing things in another way than when you were mafia and adding directly you're playing every game the same way no matter if you were mafia or town. That seems fishy. Plus you were the first to get the croatia-sammy-connection. But that could well be an argument for you being pro-town following my reasoning further up.
Relating Croatia:
To be honest I think Croatia too good a player to take out sammy because of an accusation that was "hidden" so well that it was easily found by the first player that searches for a reason why sammy was chosen by the mafia.
I think that's a case of trying to find a reason / connection where there is none.
jseadog1 wrote:
Lynch Croatia14. Solely for the fact he's targeting me so aggressively and I know my alliance. Putting a target on me is easy because he can refer to how strong of a player I was for the mafia the past few games combined with how set in stone he is to have everyone join his train so early.
I also don't think that's a good reason for voting for Croatia. I've seen enough townies (including myself) pursuing other townies ferociously, but I can't remember mafia players doing it. Why should they? It would put themselves in the focus of the town which they surely don't want.
All in all:
I suggest a deeper look into the more quiet players like marco (though I liked his reading of the nightkill), hillis, jaxika, bikex, maybe even quadsas (and of course myself if you want to). I'm pretty sure there are one or two mafia players hiding in between, and maybe those will be harder to find in late game.
On the other hand focusing on the more active players like the treks, knockout, jseadog, Croatia, BBL would lead to fights between them, most probably resulting in lynches against the most active townies, reducing the town in number and lose the assets. Therefore I'm willing to give the active players the benefit of the doubt for now (though of course still watching their actions and keeping them in mind). |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 17:02
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In day 2 I promised myself to keep an eye on you, because after a good start on day 1 you were quite disappeared as like you were happy on what's happening. But this is a very good post imo and surely with more town vibe than mafia.
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| knockout |
Posted on 23-01-2020 17:32
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Spoiler Most of the talk right now is about the nightkill but we should all remember to discuss the action yesterday as well and hopefully connect both analysis
When I saw jseadogs "Why Sammy?" post i also immediately thought of the kill as a framing operation and jdog being part of the mafia since he as someone who likes to nightkill people that suspected him should have an idea what that kill has in mind but I'm notorious for reading his actions as mafia every game to the point that i actually wrongly defended him with the argument "that are all red flags but he always has those and is just an easy misslynch target". This makes me very hesitant to take a strong position for or against jseadog.
So I'll be Captain Obvious instead and list the different options i see as reasons for the nightkill.
Option 1) It was just a casual kill on someone with little argumentative history. The only real connection to others was the suspicion against Croatia and hardly interacted with anybody else (at least in terms of reads). He was very unlikely to be lynched today as he was mostly seen as slightly townish and was unlikely to be protected by the doctor.
Sammy kinda fits lots of criteria for a casual kill so it is not out of the question that this might be true or at least was part of the reason he was killed.
Option 2) He was a danger for someone in the Mafia. This would be Croatia as the guy who Sammy voted for. I am sure that Croatia would realize he would get a lot of doubt over it but Croatia is strong in arguing his case and i could see him taking the risk, knowing he could probably use arguments like "others try to keep people in game that mistrust them cause they don't want to raise that attention. I think if you know me well you know that I am the 2nd type of player" to get off the hook. (and i indeed i would rather put him in that category too)
This is a possibility but I'd reckon rather unlikely. Thought the awards nomination worthy paranoia between Croatia and me definitely sees this as an option that shouldnt be discarded. Also: I might be mistaken but rarely has the nightkill been discussed in too much detail or was a main argument in a lynch so he might have thought that he could get away with.
Option 3) He was killed to frame Croatia. This begs to the question why Croatia had to be framed? I see two options:
Option 3a) Because Croatia is on the right track. By framing him, Croatias arguments might be more ignored and his focus might go towards defending himself. Ideally he would get lynched.
It's possible but i struggle to accept the theory Croatia posted about Jdog and bbl working together. It looks too amateurish with both pointing strongly at you at the start of the day. I cant imagine that jdog would make his opening post like that if the plan was to have bbl make the early lynch vote. With 3 guys in the mafia chat surely someone would have been scared to connect jdog and bbl like that. Especially since jdog usually took more of a isolation-survival strategy (like bandwaggoning on Aquarius immediately in Mafia VIII). And jdog starting the conversation about sammys last post wouldnt have been necessary. Surely someone else would have brought it up soonish or bbl could have brought it up in the lynch post itself.
@croatia: Why do you think both are involved in that scheme? to me it looks like bbl would be more crucial to the "plan" to get you lynched than jseadog. Why do you think jseadog is more likely to be mafia than town?
Option 3b) The mafia needed a distraction. It was quite obvious that the town would point towards croatia at some point following the sammy kill. One of the mafia members could have feared to be lynched tomorrow. trekbmc (and me, i guess) had to fear to be in the lynch conversation again after yesterday so making a night kill that would immedaitely point towards someone else and drive the discussion away from him could be very beneficial in surviving the next day / achieving the next misslynch.
This one was my immediate thought although i guess it could be down to sth like an endowment effect that one doesnt like to back down from the main suspect too quickly. I would like to keep trek in the lynch discussion instead of narrowing it down too much to croatia vs jseadog vs bbl.
___
Not sure which one i think is the most likely. Could also be a combination of two of these (like bbl + trek as part of the mafia for a combo of 3a+3b)
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| knockout |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:21
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@croatia: Why do you think both are involved in that scheme? to me it looks like bbl would be more crucial to the "plan" to get you lynched than jseadog. Why do you think jseadog is more likely to be mafia than BBL?
Wanted to write BBL instead of town here
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| ryant |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:24
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I think that Sammy died because he was a relatively strong player from past games and was reasonably active, dont think there really needs to be much analysis into this really. Knockout has seemingly not put too much importance on the n1 kill in the past so the change in action right now may need to be explained.
Regarding on the early day action Im more likely to support Croatia and most susp of BBL - jseadog lynched no one at the end of the day because I told them to, so that cant be held against them Croatia. 
What are the other's opinions on quadsas? Just want to get a consensus on them.
Also can jaxica, Bikex and marco give their opinions on what has happened so far - inactivity isnt necessarily a black mark against you but its certainly helpful what you think since theres not much to go on from you guys so far.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:27
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Sincerely I'm still confused on what happened in last minutes of day 1...why so many changes of voting to obtain same result?
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:32
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df_Trek wrote:
Sincerely I'm still confused on what happened in last minutes of day 1...why so many changes of voting to obtain same result?
I took back my vote so it would be proven that ryant was a townie politician. With my vote standing we outnumbered so it would not have proven anything about ryant. I believe someone else (maybe knockout) posted a vote in the final minutes which made everything else that happened irrelevant.
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| ryant |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:49
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jseadog1 wrote:
df_Trek wrote:
Sincerely I'm still confused on what happened in last minutes of day 1...why so many changes of voting to obtain same result?
I took back my vote so it would be proven that ryant was a townie politician. With my vote standing we outnumbered so it would not have proven anything about ryant. I believe someone else (maybe knockout) posted a vote in the final minutes which made everything else that happened irrelevant.
Exactly what happened, in the end we lynched but that was consistent with knockout wanting to lynch everyday - I was happy enough with the lynch in the end but I could have been 100% proven if we followed what I had suggested.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 04:52
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:51
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jseadog1 wrote:
df_Trek wrote:
Sincerely I'm still confused on what happened in last minutes of day 1...why so many changes of voting to obtain same result?
I took back my vote so it would be proven that ryant was a townie politician. With my vote standing we outnumbered so it would not have proven anything about ryant. I believe someone else (maybe knockout) posted a vote in the final minutes which made everything else that happened irrelevant.
Ok, but I don't think this was necessary considering he wasn't counterclaimed
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:54
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ryant wrote:
Something which I didnt think of, is I could back a no lynch vote and no one dies?
Because I misunderstood this message here. I thought this message was implying he needed help to get a no vote which I was consistently behind all of the first day. I did not realize he meant that he just needed to flip himself to get this to happen. This was my mistake which I took back when ryant told me.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 18:59
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Ok ok... but I'm saying that wasn't necessary all the theatre done because without a counter claim he is the politician. No doubt. Or the real politician is not playing pro town...but I find this second option quite impossible
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| ryant |
Posted on 23-01-2020 19:21
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Croatia14 wrote:
Also I stated that I suspected Waghlon, but also that I did not have him as my #1 priority. That was and still is jseadog. As it wasn't possible to convince enough people in the time frame to lynch jseadog I thought and commented that we should either kill Waghlon or lynch nobody, cause I believe that he was the only one to kill that made sense from the options. I fully stand by my decision and still think that his comments were confusing at best or opposite of helpful at worst. At least it made us lynch him which in hindsight was bad but I would've done it again looking back.
I did like your post Croatia and originally thought this gave you a pro town reading but I have to highlight the part in bold... You say jseadog was your no 1 mafia read - but I've read through this thread and I can't seem to find your post on this.
This is a big hole in what was otherwise quite a persuasive post 
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| knockout |
Posted on 23-01-2020 19:32
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ryant wrote:
I think that Sammy died because he was a relatively strong player from past games and was reasonably active, dont think there really needs to be much analysis into this really. Knockout has seemingly not put too much importance on the n1 kill in the past so the change in action right now may need to be explained.
1) Experiences from past games: I feel like we probably would have won in Mafia VIII (i think thats the one where df & jdog survived) if i didnt ignore night kills as much and hence pushed for croatia instead of jdog on the final day despite my player analysis saying otherwise. Stuff like that always influences future games. Another change that i made based on past games (that Croatia already mentioned) is that i used many short posts instead of making one long post when rambling about stuff like my town-leading reads on day 1. I felt that when i posted too many different thoughts within the same post (especially when it is not a lynch vote or preparing one), it often didnt lead to a conversation about it and was ignored too much. This time i most made my longer posts focussed on one coherent thought or question ("trek is my top suspect" / "Why was sammy killed" etc) while keeping those minor reads (on day 1: slight protown reads) that might be useful to understand my positions+actions short and focussed about the key parts of my message instead of analysing every aspect of someones posts. Hoped for better quotability and more dialogue like with df_trek.
2) I was (and still am) trying to figure out how it turned out that waghlon was lynched despite noone really pushing for him. Both Croatia and jdog seemed to play a big role in the lynch
Spoiler Croatia started the waggon on waghlon and while i liked #161 a lot that could also have been a fantastic way to protect trek and derail the voting from him & me and jseadog was there in the end seemingly to prefer a waghlon lynch or a no lynch but not voting for everyone until that weird stunt at the end. the weird stunt is not really suspicious in my eyes but the fact that he didnt place his vote before that could well be
and now those two are again clashing in the night kill analysis and I'm trying to see if those two are connected somehow. None of the bandwaggons really took off at any point so I'm wondering whether it was because the mafia tried to derail them or whether it was due to mafia just standing on the sidelines. I realize that I'm rambling here a lot without a coherent message so I'll stop here and try to figure it out. Hopefully I can present my thoughts on that tomorrow in a better way than i could do now.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 19:40
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Spoiler ryant wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
Also I stated that I suspected Waghlon, but also that I did not have him as my #1 priority. That was and still is jseadog. As it wasn't possible to convince enough people in the time frame to lynch jseadog I thought and commented that we should either kill Waghlon or lynch nobody, cause I believe that he was the only one to kill that made sense from the options. I fully stand by my decision and still think that his comments were confusing at best or opposite of helpful at worst. At least it made us lynch him which in hindsight was bad but I would've done it again looking back.
I did like your post Croatia and originally thought this gave you a pro town reading but I have to highlight the part in bold... You say jseadog was your no 1 mafia read - but I've read through this thread and I can't seem to find your post on this.
This is a big hole in what was otherwise quite a persuasive post 
well f**k you are right - I was sure I stated that in my bigger post about what I think of who aligns with whom, but it seems like I just forgot to write the part about jseadog 
that also means that obviously the argument with jseadog protecting himself got a lot weaker tbh, and also answers the question of knockout - it seems like I really forgot to write down what was on my mind - I'm genuinely sorry jseadog!
that doesn't change that I think the post of jseadog about strong hinting in one direction but not wanting to speak it out loud looks very fishy to me, but it changes the potential reasons - I'd go in line with knockouts theories on the potential reasons of the nightkill...before I considered option 3.2 of his post a lot less, but him bringing it up despite maybe hurting him raises my opinion of him
still I think jseadog and bbl are the main suspects to me, but I want to see the so far non-active players joining the discussion |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 19:47
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As it goes in line with knockouts latest call in the second part of his analysis I just saw:
None of the bandwaggons really took off at any point so I'm wondering whether it was because the mafia tried to derail them or whether it was due to mafia just standing on the sidelines. I realize that I'm rambling here a lot without a coherent message so I'll stop here and try to figure it out. Hopefully I can present my thoughts on that tomorrow in a better way than i could do now.
I'd like to hear more about this, especially from the fellas that actually stood on the sidelines the whole time.
df_Trek wrote:
sammyt93 -------------Croatia14
trekbmc --------------Bikex
df_trek --------------Waghlon
hillis91 -
jseadog1 -
baseballlover312 -
ryant ----------------quadsas
Croatia14 ------------Waghlon
jaxika ---------------trekbmc
knockout -------------trekbmc
kandesbunzler26 ------LynchNone
Marcovdw -
Bikex -
quadsas --------------knockout
Waghlon --------------knockout
this should be the situation
Looking at the discussion about knockout/trekbmc/waghlon I think it is very much possible that all of mafia at this point (or at least 2/3) had no vote on either trek, knockout or Waghlon. Why? Because if I was mafia I would sit back and wait and see whether I have to have my vote casted on somebody good that may be potentially lynched or not and keep my hands clear off any dirt. I think that it could be a very possible idea that knockout, trekbmc and Waghlon are all good and thus mafia didn't vote at this point for one of those and was very happy with their situation out of trouble.
What do you make out of this? We can't just be 6,5 guys talking sense (ryant, df_trek, knockout, bbl, jdog, kandesbunzler and me with others resting their laurels on the sidelines |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 20:06
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Also I'll randomly put up my current view on people (wanna call it Power Ranking? ), so that you kinda get a small idea of what goes on in my stupid mind atm.
Level of Trust
ryant (safe good)
df_trek (actively driving the discussion)
kandesbunzler26 (few but very good points)
neutral
jaxika (seemed genuine)
knockout (driving the discussion but with some unconvincing comments)
quadsas (shouty shouty but not negative yet)
Level of Discomfort
Bikex (uncomfortably quiet)
trekbmc (knockout-clash + uncomfortably quiet since then, raised no own suspicions since the discussion has driven up the pace)
hillis91 (small and no-message posts)
Level of Distrust
Marcovdw (few and fishy posts (e.g. my #161 elaboration), nothing since then)
jseadog1 (strange late votes, opening post on day 2)
baseballlover312 (driving the lynch against me, seemed well prepared after night, timing of activity, gut feeling from day 1)
Maybe it especially helps the lower category suspects that haven't said anything of value yet to come out and talk a little to us (Speaking to trekky, hillis, bikex, Marco) . The longer you are quiet the longer is your way up to convince at least me. |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 20:12
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What do you want to know?
I rarely write the longer posts myself, but i do read all the posts when i have the time and try to contribute when i can.
Me personally did not vote the first day because if feel we allways do this, like a wrote, we argue about silly stuff the first day and then we end up lynching a town member and the mafia gets a free kill during the day and then a nightkill. So instead of slowing the process down we speed it up. And we loose..
I did not vote on a lynch, based on that.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 20:25
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Why not voting lynch none so?
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 20:27
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Why? What difference does that make?
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