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Mafia X | u up? x
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:02
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Why sammyt93?
This was his last post after announcing a lynch on Croatia...
All of his posts so far have been half joking despite offering nothing useful. He is doing enough to avoid being questioned for lack of posts but deliberately not offering anything of note or any useful content. Not making any attempt to generate discussion, and in his first couple of posts even half jokingly trying to dissuade a conversation from happening about whether we should mass claim or not despite the extra long first day giving us time to ask that question and move on.
His latest post is the only one that seems even pseudo helpful, posting a read on a few players, but struggling to come to any conclusions or even ask any questions or try to do some probing on anyone else.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
Does anybody have any solid leads we could go off of for this?
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:23
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Not what i had expected from the night.
He had a vote on Croatia, but i dont find that to be very suspcious. It's more day 1 shananigans
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:26
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hillis91 wrote:
Not what i had expected from the night.
He had a vote on Croatia, but i dont find that to be very suspcious. It's more day 1 shananigans
But to be fair doesn't mafia take out someone usually who is hiding low and out of the spotlight?
For example, if trek and knockout are both town, why would the mafia take out either of them because they are already at risk of being taken out of the town members.
Nobody had sammy on their radar for 2 I would assume.. If that makes sense.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 26-11-2024 23:00
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:32
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Yeah i get what you mean with that, but i can't see a possible frame job either.
Im confused by this.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:41
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Posts: 2518
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jseadog1 wrote:
Why sammyt93?
This was his last post after announcing a lynch on Croatia...
All of his posts so far have been half joking despite offering nothing useful. He is doing enough to avoid being questioned for lack of posts but deliberately not offering anything of note or any useful content. Not making any attempt to generate discussion, and in his first couple of posts even half jokingly trying to dissuade a conversation from happening about whether we should mass claim or not despite the extra long first day giving us time to ask that question and move on.
His latest post is the only one that seems even pseudo helpful, posting a read on a few players, but struggling to come to any conclusions or even ask any questions or try to do some probing on anyone else.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
Does anybody have any solid leads we could go off of for this?
Considering that's the first thing on your mind, makes me think you may be quite sus here
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 22-01-2020 21:45
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sammy seems like a pretty random kill. The mafia could either kill someone who is very active or who has a confirmed power role, and sammy was neither (as far as we know). Not suggesting that anyone who is active is mafia by default in this theory, but the mafia could use this randomness to confuse us and have us scrambling for leads again which we might have hoped to get from this night.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 22-01-2020 22:41
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Posts: 7257
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Sorry for my low activity so far. I will try to catch up and get an overview until tomorrow night. |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 23:00
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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I also apologize for the inactivity. The last day or two of the previous day were pretty confusing to me, and by the time I did a reread of everything, the lynch had taken place. If I had been there earlier though, I'm not sure I would have concluded any of the three were guilty. I was more intrigued by df_trek's discovery.
I'd like to take a step back to analyze this:
df_Trek wrote:
What I find a bit weird is that this vote never changed...
That surely is weird logic to have in the first day - make a joke and then stick with the vote while everybody has forgotten why you made it in the first place. This was all Croatia said about Waghlon in his big #161 post. None of his other posts addressed Waghlon at all.
"Waghlon a big question mark obviously, he seems like bullshitting to me, jumping left and right."
Obviously this isn't a ringing endorsement of Waghlon, but it hardly seems a practical justification for a lynch or even a true condemnation of him. Just a one liner about how he seems erratic and untrustworthy. A question mark - the most definitive symbol of uncertainty around. But in that same post, he gives far more words condemning me and Marco, yet he never voted again. He stuck with his original joke kill without any justification as the debate heated up, to ensure help insure the lynch. It seems like something incredibly sneaky and with someone as smart as Croatia, perhaps planned.
Obviously this probably won't be my last vote, as the discussion unfolds. But I think it's enough to go on for me to start out, and also to avoid not voting in another round.
Lynch Croatia14
I also don't think this looks very good for knockout, but I'll have to read through his posts again before I have a true opinion.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 22-01-2020 23:01
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Also, Sammy dies as the only person to incriminate Croatia as not really acting to any serious words. I know the first night kills are usually random or a diversion, but perhaps those words were far enough in the past, and Croatia had avoided suspicion enough, that they thought such a move wouldn't attract attention.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 00:28
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Also, Sammy dies as the only person to incriminate Croatia as not really acting to any serious words. I know the first night kills are usually random or a diversion, but perhaps those words were far enough in the past, and Croatia had avoided suspicion enough, that they thought such a move wouldn't attract attention.
I'm not going deep tonight with my sentences because today was an hard day and tomorrow I'm off at work and I'll have all the time for doing it.
But I quite disagree that he avoided suspicions, I'm reading this in another way.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 00:32
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knockout wrote:
df_Trek wrote:
-Croatia: no arguments by him, I dislike this in particular because he actually posted something around, but just few short post whit questions, a lynch vote to an inactive player and a sensation that I disagree on Quadsas [-T +M]
Quite similar thoughts here but i won't vote to lynch him today. There are guys with bigger question marks around, i want to hear more from him on day 1+2 and i won't start it again this quickly 
Here me and knockout were talking about his not clear situation...and this is earlier than Sammy's post.
I'm worried that Sammy's death want to bring us on a wrong way...I wouldn't take too hasty verdict.
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| knockout |
Posted on 23-01-2020 11:29
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Two questions:
1) Assuming Croatia is mafia and wants to avoid further suspicions, wouldn't a kill on df trek would be much more intriguing due to it being far more under the radar and much harder to trace back to him? He was also critical but not as much as Sammyt.
2) Who benefits the most from the discussion flogging to whether Croatia is either killing a critical voice or being framed? Me and trek as the two top voted guys from the previous day?
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 13:33
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knockout wrote:
Two questions:
1) Assuming Croatia is mafia and wants to avoid further suspicions, wouldn't a kill on df trek would be much more intriguing due to it being far more under the radar and much harder to trace back to him? He was also critical but not as much as Sammyt.
2) Who benefits the most from the discussion flogging to whether Croatia is either killing a critical voice or being framed? Me and trek as the two top voted guys from the previous day?
I just don't think this is true. df_trek made that post just a few above the lynch. If he was killed, we would have gone back to his posts like we did Sammy's, except his intrigue would have been even more recent, and therefore more noticeable.
Of course, df_trek himself disagrees with my assessment, so I'll wait to hear his thoughts.
And to answer your second point, yes. Probably you two benefit the most.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 14:59
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Wanted to answer this morning but I kinda forgot. Two discussion points.
1) My vote on Waghlon
2) The discussion about me being mafia
to 1: I did initially just want to hear from him as he didn't say anything yet. Hence it was an activity vote, quite obviously wrapped in a joke. Also that meant that, iirc, I had the first vote, which gave my vote slightly more importance if it wouldn't change. Which in my point of view wasn't a bad thing for me (and thus the town).
Then Waghlon did some very strange comments on the trekbmc/knockout situation. As the situation was the case that we had to decide between several people, I was convinced that killing Waghlon was the better idea than knockout or trek or even quasdas. Hence I didn't change my decision.
Also I stated that I suspected Waghlon, but also that I did not have him as my #1 priority. That was and still is jseadog. As it wasn't possible to convince enough people in the time frame to lynch jseadog I thought and commented that we should either kill Waghlon or lynch nobody, cause I believe that he was the only one to kill that made sense from the options. I fully stand by my decision and still think that his comments were confusing at best or opposite of helpful at worst. At least it made us lynch him which in hindsight was bad but I would've done it again looking back.
to 2: Here is where the fun part starts: The night kill. I remember that some people would behave like erasing all threats to them while others try to keep people in game that mistrust them cause they don't want to raise that attention. I think if you know me well you know that I am the 2nd type of player. Hence the call that i killed sammy just for that is bullshit.
Also, reading back I stated that I tend to believe that sammy acted honest but had less of a clue yet. I did not consider him as an enemy in the game, in fact, more of an ally. It just does not add up.
BUT: On the first glance, without digging deeper it obviously looks like it could be a good match. df_treks post, to which I sadly didn't directly respond before the time was up, basically presented me as suspect #1 for te town for the next day and as a good target.
In fact, what I think is that somebody used the for their use. And on the first glance it's a very smart move to "frame" me with the link of that post being easy to find. But, as I've demonstrated you, it doesn't add up.
As this seems to be quite an obvious move, I'd lay the focus on who may benefit on framing me. First of all that would be all of the mafia, cause with me they take out a town member. One without any special role, but still a townie which is always good for them.
But who specifically benefits the most from taking me out? I guess that we can take two players into that circle: Jseadog and bbl.
I remember jseadog always playing this as mafia in a manner that he is one of the type A players that tries to remove the threats to him. I was the person that placed a target on him most directly, saying that I do strongly consider him being mafia. Also I offered "evidence" for why I do think so, not just a gut feeling. If he was mafia alone I would think that he would have killed me directly, but with a trio things may change.
This is where bbl comes into my mind: He was in my suspect list as well. Also I, from the last games consider him more of the framer than the direct lyncher, as I'd do it myself. I already called my disagreements with him, so we weren't exactly allies at this stage. What raised my attention though that he seemed to be so well prepared for the kill and the instant reaction so early after the lynch was called. His thoughts seemed very well prepared/structured/planned.
I would not be very surprised if jseadog and bbl were mafia, jdog wanted to have me out of his way and bbl provided him with a plan to not make it look like a direct attack (surely people would've suspected jdog after looking back at my post if I was killed and his style of playing from the last games, but as a framing job.
Hence I move to lynch jseadog, and strongly urge everybody else to do so as well. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:02
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
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jseadog1 wrote:
Why sammyt93?
This was his last post after announcing a lynch on Croatia...
All of his posts so far have been half joking despite offering nothing useful. He is doing enough to avoid being questioned for lack of posts but deliberately not offering anything of note or any useful content. Not making any attempt to generate discussion, and in his first couple of posts even half jokingly trying to dissuade a conversation from happening about whether we should mass claim or not despite the extra long first day giving us time to ask that question and move on.
His latest post is the only one that seems even pseudo helpful, posting a read on a few players, but struggling to come to any conclusions or even ask any questions or try to do some probing on anyone else.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
Does anybody have any solid leads we could go off of for this?
I've just realized that jseadog in fact posted this which I've overread  that screams "kill Croatia, but please somebody else say it so that I wasn't the one that said it".
Makes it pretty obvious imo. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:19
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Also I tracked back to the latest hours of the last day-time to figure out any suspicious/remarkable posts.
knockout wrote:
lynch waghlon
Mostly to secure the vote of him. I cant make any sense of his late day actions but trek would still have been my priority.
Knockout did very well in moderating the last minutes of the discussion. But this post looks a little fishy for me. This "would still have been" perspective while something is running always looks a little strange, given the change that took place. It looks unnatural, and thus a little suspicious. However, I'm undecided on what to make out of this as I can understand the self-saving perspective. I am very unsure about what to think of knockout. For now I think it's been a slipper, especially as townies (I guess) have to be less careful with their wordings than mafia. If it turns out that trek is mafia I'll look back on this and re-evaluate.
This was the strange lynch vote of the late time. Which made it even more strange that he revoked it again a couple of minutes later. Sounds like "hey, I told you I wanna lynch nobody today, cause a townie will die".
df_Trek wrote:
sammyt93 -------------Croatia14
trekbmc --------------Bikex
df_trek --------------Waghlon
hillis91 -
jseadog1 -
baseballlover312 -
ryant ----------------quadsas
Croatia14 ------------Waghlon
jaxika ---------------trekbmc
knockout -------------trekbmc
kandesbunzler26 ------LynchNone
Marcovdw -
Bikex -
quadsas --------------knockout
Waghlon --------------knockout
this should be the situation
Looking at the discussion about knockout/trekbmc/waghlon I think it is very much possible that all of mafia at this point (or at least 2/3) had no vote on either trek, knockout or Waghlon. Why? Because if I was mafia I would sit back and wait and see whether I have to have my vote casted on somebody good that may be potentially lynched or not and keep my hands clear off any dirt. I think that it could be a very possible idea that knockout, trekbmc and Waghlon are all good and thus mafia didn't vote at this point for one of those and was very happy with their situation out of trouble. |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:33
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Croatia you are going to look really really dumb if everyone jumps on a lynch wagon to kill me.... just throwing that out in the open.
I was just trying to spark discussion. I have no power roles. Absolutely none. Im a townie. Why admit that? Well, if you look in past games where I was mafia, I never straight out came in the open and said I was.
I play every game the same regardless of my alignment and you seem to consistently try to dodge that fact and say that I was mafia the past 2 games and am playing like a mafia again. Alignment has no effect.
Lynch Croatia14. Solely for the fact he's targeting me so aggressively and I know my alliance. Putting a target on me is easy because he can refer to how strong of a player I was for the mafia the past few games combined with how set in stone he is to have everyone join his train so early.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:36
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jseadog1 wrote:
Solely for the fact he's targeting me so aggressively and I know my alliance. Putting a target on me is easy because he can refer to how strong of a player I was for the mafia the past few games combined with how set in stone he is to have everyone join his train so early.
What the hell are you even talking about? I did not talk about your qualities as a mafia member. I just explained why I think it is very very very likely that you are mafia and your childish reaction only adds to that.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:39
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imo Sammy's death is not casual, and kill Croatia seems too obvious.
This can be a planned move by mafia, hoping with my last post that I support that Croatia is dirty, moreover If we find that Croatia is pro town I'm also losing trust from the citizens.
At this point I found the lynch vote by BBL very hurried, and I'm used to see him much more rational in his thoughts.
Also the fact that he is first on vote against Croatia can be quite a protection against bandwagoning.
I think BBL is suspect more than others at the moment.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 23-01-2020 15:55
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Grand Tour Champion
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Croatia14 wrote:
jseadog1 wrote:
Solely for the fact he's targeting me so aggressively and I know my alliance. Putting a target on me is easy because he can refer to how strong of a player I was for the mafia the past few games combined with how set in stone he is to have everyone join his train so early.
What the hell are you even talking about? I did not talk about your qualities as a mafia member. I just explained why I think it is very very very likely that you are mafia and your childish reaction only adds to that.
strongly urge everybody else to do so as well.
I am telling you straight up right now that I am not a mafia member. It would be ideal and best for you to remove your vote. If you are townie, I do not want you to look dumb when it comes up that I am townie as it takes away much of the belief in you that even further hurts the town.
It is not meant to be a childish post but more of 'you are making the wrong decision'. If you call it 'describing the ways I am likely a mafia member', than one of us is horrible at playing the game.
Either I am horrible at being a townie, which is understandable considering I have played the last 2 as mafia (but play all games the same anyway so maybe I generally play a mafia style?) or you are horrible at reading who is what..
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