Decided to take a closer look at trekbmcs behaviour on day one of the last couple of games. My previous assessment kinda fits for the last two games and his defense for jandal in IX sounds very similar to his defense for me. But for previous games a comparison gets sketchy since he played the game a lot less serious & more joking, his posts are shorter and the site meta was worse (no lynching).
Feel less secure than previously but still think he is the most likely mafia member and the similarities in tone to IX are quite intriguing to look at. But confirmation bias is in play so please judge yourself:
-------
(I would put everything below in a gigantic spoiler but that would mess with the forum code. Sorry for the long post)
Mafia IX (as One-Shot Strongman Mafia)
Spoiler
trekbmc wrote:
That was surprisingly fast for some arguments to start, I personally think that at the very least it's important to get some lynch votes going day 1 at the very least just because it encourages conversation as the most valuable tool we have to beat the mafia is forcing them to post a lot to give us potential clues or just a vibe at the very least, there often isn't very much hard evidence in this game.
Anyway, Knockout's guidelines that Jandal posted from last game are pretty good rules to generally follow at the start. Also, Jandal seems to be taking the lead for the town a little bit, which imo is great because he seems quite trustworthy so far at least but we just all have to be a tad wary (although I only say this because he's been running this game so long so I assume he's an expert ) of the technically possible control the town as mafia strategy. That said, he seems like the most trustworthy guy so far because he's been the most committed to keeping things organised and moving forward.
Otherwise, there's not too much to say quite yet I guess, but the important thing is to go ahead and say what you can to start more discussions.
Also, Sammy's current voting pattern seems as good as any for the start so I'm going to follow his strategy of going from the bottom up with people who haven't posted and cast a Lynch TMM vote, which I'll take away as soon as he posts.
jandal7 wrote:
I think early lunches force “the heat” to build earlier and force people to become active and maybe cause a mafia slip-up. Hope you’re right though
I have early lunches when I'm hungry, but if that's what they do for you, that's cool.
trekbmc wrote:
Anyway, Knockout's guidelines that Jandal posted from last game are pretty good rules to generally follow at the start. Also, Jandal seems to be taking the lead for the town a little bit, which imo is great because he seems quite trustworthy so far at least but we just all have to be a tad wary (although I only say this because he's been running this game so long so I assume he's an expert ) of the technically possible control the town as mafia strategy. That said, he seems like the most trustworthy guy so far because he's been the most committed to keeping things organised and moving forward.
I just posted those because nobody had posted for 2 hours, I don't want to try be a leader any more than I have to as nobody should - I know because I made the same post as knockout and I am a "assumed expert" people might expect that, but over-reliance on knockout was a flaw in some previous games - an over-reliance on a first-time player would be much worse
That's fair and again, I think it's a good sign that you're willing to take charge and be active from the start and as long as it's not full on Knockout level reliance, having somebody to keep things moving can be a benefit to the town if it's less reliance and more facilitating discussion and good play, like you were doing.
Croatia14 wrote:
Before you're surprised: Here's my reminder that I'll, as told previously, start being active on the 17th of June. Just flew over stuff 1 second and my first cup of tea is that quasdas is looking strange (which may make him look either suspicious or least suspicious, depending on how he'll continue over the next days), and that jandal is trying a little too hard for my taste. We don't have any reference so far, but I'll keep an eye on his development as well. Also I don't really like trekbmc's opening post too much, as he goes in very general and stepping in on jandal.
Wait, so you didn't like Jandal's start, but you also didn't like me saying to be a tiny bit wary of Jandal?
Croatia14 wrote:
Before you're surprised: Here's my reminder that I'll, as told previously, start being active on the 17th of June. Just flew over stuff 1 second and my first cup of tea is that quasdas is looking strange (which may make him look either suspicious or least suspicious, depending on how he'll continue over the next days), and that jandal is trying a little too hard for my taste. We don't have any reference so far, but I'll keep an eye on his development as well. Also I don't really like trekbmc's opening post too much, as he goes in very general and stepping in on jandal.
Wait, so you didn't like Jandal's start, but you also didn't like me saying to be a tiny bit wary of Jandal?
The general tone of your argument sounds divergent from mine. You're basically saying: I trust jandal, but here is my backdoor if jandal turns out lynched and ist mafia, but I trust jandal.
For now I'll lynch trekbmc.
Wait, why would a mafia member need to create a back door though? If I was mafia I would know whether or not Jandal was.
Anyway, my point was more that I thought jandal seemed trustworthy based on the start, but then I got really paranoid because once I played a game where somebody led the town as mafia and I got scared about it happening again.
---
Anyway, TMM has posted, so unless I missed something in the chaos, hillis is the only quiet player so far? I'll go with a Lynch Hillis vote until he posts.
ryant wrote:
I'm lynching trekbmc, I think that lynching hillis is just too easy atm, I would rather he die via modkill rather than us lynching him early, as it seems we'd be shooting in the dark rather than gaining information for the town. (especially if he's going to die anyway)
I didnt like trek using the "if I was mafia" defence in his most recent post to Croatia, it just doesnt feel right for me (not researched it but didnt Aquarius do this last game?) so thats why Im voting on trek
I feel like the lack of anything major going on (outside of quadsas) is meaning I'm being nitpick a bit. I was more pointing out the flaw in Croatia's suggestion that I was trying to create a backdoor, which doesn't really make sense, given the logic I explained in my post. It wouldn't make any sense for a mafia member to act in the way Croatia described because they would know everybody's alignment.
I may have used some bad logic (I'm in the middle of exams so making fast posts - not as thought through as usual) but I don't quite get how that's a reason to lynch me.
I'm considering flipping to quadsas but tbh I really don't think he's mafia, he is definitely hurting the town at this point though. Hillis still hasn't posted though so I'll keep my vote on him for now to pressure him to post.
- doesnt has many reads he believes in
- [the player trying to organize the town: Jandal] "seems quite trustworthy so far at least but we just all have to be a tad wary"
- only interact with persons that accuse him
- doesnt give any accusations himself
- votes for inactive players
Mafia VIII (as Townie)
Spoiler
trekbmc wrote:
Agree with Knockout mostly, if everybody follows those guidelines, particularly in terms of staying active and giving the reasoning behind your lynches, it'll greatly improve our chances.
Though I don't agree with him on that last part, I would never kill somebody in a dream!
kandesbunzler has taken a moment to speak now and honestly I have faith that he'll be active, so while I appreciate Sammy and Aquarius making an effort to make sure he was active, I think we should recant our votes on him for now at least.
I'm at a loss of who to vote for now though, so I'm going to cast a vote on somebody who hasn't posted yet purely to ellicit a response. So given we started at the bottom, on that (rather unfounded) basis, I'll vote to Lynch Hills, but expect that to change.
then goes for a pack of cigarettes and is never seen again
- agrees with me on my "guidelines" without judging my allignment
- interacts with sammy and aquarius: asks them to change their vote
- votes for inactive players
Based on the last games, I have to make a purely obligatory Lynch TMM vote.
trekbmc wrote:
Croatia is just happy he isn't the one dying night one.
Mafia could also not kill Knockout night 1, we'd probably lynch Knockout pretty quickly because it's suspect that he survived that long because he's so good.
- very short posts
- basically inactive
Note: This was the season with a combined length of 8 pages (incl. signups and post game chat)
Mafia VI (as Doctor)
Spoiler
trekbmc wrote:
Well, since the mafia didn't kill TMM, they have revealed something critical about themselves - they are very clearly not townies. Since every townie would obviously want to kill TMM first.
Seriously though, I think we definitely need to move fast with the lynches, since statistically we have a 1/5 chance of lynching the mafia with a fully random lynch, while every time they kill they're only going to hit townies (although in that vein, we shouldn't go too crazy ). It also reveals information about voting patterns and forces discussion to see how people vote.
I think our best options today, is 1. Vote somebody who hasn't spoken yet (or possibly, posted quickly but with something irrelevant) or 2. Lynch TMM since he's probably going to be a liability later
Most important thing imo, is to have a discussion and get some votes going in some direction.
ryant wrote:
Gonna put it out there that its pretty convenient that Ian's 'downtime' is going to last longer now the game has begun. It doesnt reflect good on him and isn't too helpful to the town while he's alive.
Don't worry, if you want I can prove that I'm not at home by posting my holiday pictures later on.
Should only be until Friday so it is really no big deal I think.
Oh I'm pretty sure you'll still be alive by Friday no matter what
So you're still suspicious in my eyes
You're doing it wrong - if you want to get see if a guy gets killed by mafia, say that you believe that he is 100% confirmed innocent, so he becomes a more likely target for the mafia.
trekbmc wrote:
I really don't want to get into a no lynch loop - it doesn't help us. I'm a little torn on who to vote for at the moment though, those voting for a no-lynch are the most suspicious for me, as well as hillis for criticizing a lot. But TMM makes the most sense to lynch for me, don't trust Ian either but that might be bias from last game. It is a little too early to read into this sort of stuff, but imo if we lynch TMM, worst case we've got rid of a troll - and he could be mafia.
For now, I will vote to Lynch TheManxMissile, I might change the vote to make sure we get a lynch though.
- a lot of jokes
- discusses suspects in his last post
trekbmc wrote:
Hang on, are we going to lynch ryant at the moment?
Lynch Nobody
I'm happy with jandal7 going but at the moment don't want to lynch anybody else, although inves should give ryant a check because immediately beginning the game claiming to be a townie is questionable at best.
- is joking
- very short posts
Mafia IV (as terrorist)
trekbmc wrote:
Does it actually matter whether or not we vote on lynching no one?
Lynch No one
( then later the fake claim as confused cop )
_____________________
@Jandal: Please ban me from participating in these games. This isnt healthy
df_Trek wrote:
-Croatia: no arguments by him, I dislike this in particular because he actually posted something around, but just few short post whit questions, a lynch vote to an inactive player and a sensation that I disagree on Quadsas [-T +M]
Quite similar thoughts here but i won't vote to lynch him today. There are guys with bigger question marks around, i want to hear more from him on day 1+2 and i won't start it again this quickly
I haven't seen anything yet that particularly impressed me or gave me some huge edge on lynching. First vote was obviously to get Waghlon into the discussion, then just general disagreement.
I do think ryant and df_trek (liked your seemingly genuine first assessment) are pro-town at this point. I do consider quasdas and knockout the strongest mafia reads so far. Why? Because if I were one of those, I'd exactly play the game like they did if I was mafia. Knockouts digging on trekbmc particularly surprised me, either he is very engaged in the game already (an enthusiasm I am not able to share yet) or he did a tactic to make huge volume posts (with questionable value of the results; basically even saying that his findings are not that important) have early credits.
That said. I think it's too early to vote someone out if not for the sake of making the game more enjoyable (quasdas), but, as learned from last year, I'll always keep a very close eye on him in this game.
While I agree with your points about trekbmc, you seem to have left out a key element: He's a wildcard.
What's worse, he knows it and uses it to his advantage. I'm not saying he's mafia, but I'm saying that my dear friend Alastair isn't as stupid as he looks, and have made sure to leave red herrings for people to find and believe in.
I hate to make it sound like a reactionary opinion, but he is just playing this game the same way he played earlier when he was mafia, he picked a member (that time Sammyt) and went into huge, unnecessarily detailed posts filled with forced logic about why he was mafia without any real backing, which just didn't help the town that much but created the illusion of him contributing.
The reason I think that this really makes Knockout mafia though is his last post, where he forces past games to fit his opinion of me, which really is just shows a pattern, my posts have gotten longer over time, as I've understood the game more and seen many first days play out (although it's only really the first day I've played more aggressively, because I've written many a long post later in the game with both alignments).
He also bases most his 'evidence' on the number of jokes I make, which is weird, firstly because without TMM in the game half my material is gone (sorry TMM ) and also, I've just spent ages off the site, I don't think it's so surprising that I'm not firing off the jokes I used to, I haven't made any essential threads about Laporte yet either (how have you guys survived?)
His other piece of logic to vote me out is that I haven't made any reads on players yet and instead am only trying to encourage activity and try to gain the town information. This is particularly weird, because I haven't been able to make many good reads solely because the town is so lacking in information, so of course I'm going to encourage activity. I feel that he of all people knows how this works, especially as this is literally the way I play the first day every time, as shown in his own post. Also, up to the point of my last post, Knockout hadn't made any reads yet either.
I'm now leaning towards just voting Knockout as mafia because this is way too suspicious for me, but I also still want to force activity, I'll throw out a Lynch Bikex vote for now to get him to make a post then maybe switch over to Knockout at the end of the day if I feel it's the right move.
One Thing I'd especially like to reiterate though is that when I defended Knockout earlier, it was not a defense of his game but a defense of active players in general, suggesting that we first look to the inactive players as we don't want to remove people who generate discussion. While I still believe that (why I'm voting bikex), I do still want to get Knockout out because obviously voting mafia is more important than someone who might just not have had time to come online.
Also, Knockout, you asked for my reads and for more jokes apparently, so I made you a lovely table:
Spoiler
Laporte
TMM
Yay Town
Maybe Kinda More Town
Me in Mafia VIII
Unsure
Probably Mafia
Literally Decides Who Dies
Waghlon
Quadsas
Ryant
Croatia14
hillis91
sammyt93
Knockout
Jandal7
df_trek
Bikex
jseadog1
baseballlover312
jaxika
kandesbunzler26
Marcovdw
If your name didn't get formatted, that means your name is black.
All of his posts so far have been half joking despite offering nothing useful. He is doing enough to avoid being questioned for lack of posts but deliberately not offering anything of note or any useful content. Not making any attempt to generate discussion, and in his first couple of posts even half jokingly trying to dissuade a conversation from happening about whether we should mass claim or not despite the extra long first day giving us time to ask that question and move on.
His latest post is the only one that seems even pseudo helpful, posting a read on a few players, but struggling to come to any conclusions or even ask any questions or try to do some probing on anyone else.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
All of his posts so far have been half joking despite offering nothing useful. He is doing enough to avoid being questioned for lack of posts but deliberately not offering anything of note or any useful content. Not making any attempt to generate discussion, and in his first couple of posts even half jokingly trying to dissuade a conversation from happening about whether we should mass claim or not despite the extra long first day giving us time to ask that question and move on.
His latest post is the only one that seems even pseudo helpful, posting a read on a few players, but struggling to come to any conclusions or even ask any questions or try to do some probing on anyone else.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
What the hell are you writing? I did come to conclusions, the ones I laid out there. I did not talk myself out of asking questions, I just stated that I'll continue to analyse what they are doing while having some sort of suspicion already.
Which questions do you want me to ask? Knockout, are you pro-mafia or pro-town? We have no action to talk about yet. Just speculation and presentation. Exactly one claim. There is no need in asking questions that already everybody asks, and while doing so potentially blocking those discussions. That's why I sharply slid in my own short comments on what happened.
I remember similar behavior raised suspicions on me last game, which made the start very - uncomfortable, At this point I'm not willing to invest more time into long research like knockout did (Hats off!), because I have other stuff to do, but obviously the more we know the more detailed I can state my opinion.
Also thanks to trekbmc I just realized that TMM is not playing which means I have a chance to survive longer than ever, so please don't take his role and be the gunman
First off, sorry for my inactivity, i've had a busy weekend of partying. Also, we allways do this. We jump on the active ones the first couple of days becuase of lack of material. That is also the reason why im allways a bit more quiet the first days of a game. As people like to jump on the name they see more and more in the thread. And it got me killed early in a previous version. And, i've been super hungover after a 2 day bender
Im not convinced that knockout is a mobster, i actually got a town read on him. As he has to know what i know, that active players early get lynched. He has to right? I can't see a pro-town player being THAT active this early with the risk of getting vetted.
So for now, im risking my good name and reputation as i say knockout is pro-town in my opnion. However, i would like to get a better answer out of Marco if your feeling a bit better to post?
Good then, at least now none can hide himself behind the speech that there is nothing to argue.
I'm not doing a big post like yesterday one, because is just few hours ago and doesn't make any sense, but I'll try to read one by one what's new.
First of all I want to say that I didn't cast a vote yet, and I'm probably doing it tomorrow some hours before the deadline, just because I want to see more reaction from some players yet.
- Quadsas being Quadsas, so I'm not going up that avenue again. You and knockout are right that my post was meant as a cover so I wouldn't get into trouble over that again.
- The main stream of activity at the moment is the dialogue between df_Trek and knockout. A good vantage point for those who are not very good at reading other people's actions (including myself). For the first day, lynching either of them would not be a good idea.
- As for my opinion if we should lynch someone on the first day, I would be open to it if we can narrow it down to a few supect(s) but I'm not in favor of taking a shot in the dark just to reduce the numbers. There needs to be a reasonable suspicion.
- I said I wouldn't dip into the whole role claiming discussion but my only suggestion would be that if someone is in danger of being lynched (ie has lynch votes on the last day) and has a power role, then come out.
Probably not as elaborate as you want but I've never been good at poking and getting people to talk, I'll be the first to admit that.
atm I'm not subverting my idea about you are more suspicious than others in the town, but your points are good and I feel them more coming from a pro-town member. The problem is that these were forced after I wrote twice I wanted more from inactive people, in particular when I raised suspects on you. I was hoping that first time I asked more cooperation was enough for a statement like this one, in particular because there aren't deep analysis on players behaviour.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
As I have to work a lot until tomorrow evening and thus won't have time to make an elaborate post (especially pointing at someone on a justifiable base) I will leave my vote here: lynch noone
This shouldn't really be a surprise anyway.
Should anything surprising happen until the end of the day I will hopefully be able to react, otherwise I should be able to be more active the next days.
That's exactly what I would do if I have no time to follow in the last day...or if I want to avoid responsability burdened on my shoulder...ok for now, but I hope next days you can be more active, because you are also one we have the less to judge.
Honestly, to me it seems like his actions are designed to avoid getting questioned himself rather than to actually help the town.
I want to know why he seemingly talked himself out of actually asking questions of or putting pressure on either Quadsas or Knockout when he had already said they seem like mafia to him and if there is anyone else he has read on/ would like to hear more from.
I had same impression from the beginning,and about last post yes, it seems more open to discussion but actually tell nothing more that what came out before. I'm quite focused on his action and what is coming from him.
On knockout vs trekbmc: I have some question in my mind I can't get an answer.
-If knockout is mafia, what is the benefit from mafia to point so strongly trek with a influential player like knockout?
-why trek is still voting for inactive ones if he is so convinced knockout is mafia?
-Waghlon, can you go deeper in what you want to say?
df_Trek wrote:
On knockout vs trekbmc: I have some question in my mind I can't get an answer.
-If knockout is mafia, what is the benefit from mafia to point so strongly trek with a influential player like knockout?
-why trek is still voting for inactive ones if he is so convinced knockout is mafia?
-Waghlon, can you go deeper in what you want to say?
I'll just address your points one by one:
- Let's assume that, for the sake of this, Knockout is a mafia member, now people always expect Knockout to make long posts, they expect him to analyse the game and give a ton of input and lead the town. However, he's a mafia, he doesn't actually want to help the town, so how can you make long posts without helping the town that aren't immediately suspicious? You can target a specific player. Now he is still giving the impression of helping the town with long posts but he is also not actually contributing that much, which strikes the perfect balance between not helping the town and appearing like a fantastic townie. The issue with this strategy is that firstly it leads to some posts that just feel a little bit redundant (there's a lot of posts there, quite a few don't have that much content), but the bigger issue is that he's actually done it before, last time he was mafia, he spent the entire game targeting Sammy relentlessly, even though there was really not very much evidence or town support against him.
- Okay, you definitely just skimmed my post, but I pretty much said I was going to change but wanted to force bikex to speak first, don't know if we'll get that so I might just flip soon (tbh, I have no clue when the deadline is), if you want it more in depth just reread what I said.
- I didn't really follow, but I like to think he's saying that I'm such a good townie that I've put hints that I'm mafia in previous games to make it more interesting. Also, Waghlon is going to win, that's why he's in the Laporte category.
trekbmc wrote:
The reason I think that this really makes Knockout mafia though is his last post, where he forces past games to fit his opinion of me, which really is just shows a pattern, my posts have gotten longer over time, as I've understood the game more and seen many first days play out (although it's only really the first day I've played more aggressively, because I've written many a long post later in the game with both alignments).
I think some missunderstood what i was trying to say with that.
i looked at the previous games and said that only the last two games would kinda fit to my observation (of which one was the disappearing one) and every game before that is hard to compare because you play the game very different now, make less jokes and longer posts as both allignments etc.
Key sentence:
Feel less secure than previously but still think he is the most likely mafia member
A reminder there's just over 11 hours until the deadline (8pm GMT)
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
hillis91 wrote:
Im not convinced that knockout is a mobster, i actually got a town read on him. As he has to know what i know, that active players early get lynched. He has to right? I can't see a pro-town player being THAT active this early with the risk of getting vetted.
Highly disagree, usually it's the people that say the least/vague stuff are the first to be lynched, and that for good reason. In my opinion it's also people that start jumping on lynch trains that are the most suspicious people (generally speaking).
- Let's assume that, for the sake of this, Knockout is a mafia member, now people always expect Knockout to make long posts, they expect him to analyse the game and give a ton of input and lead the town. However, he's a mafia, he doesn't actually want to help the town, so how can you make long posts without helping the town that aren't immediately suspicious? You can target a specific player. Now he is still giving the impression of helping the town with long posts but he is also not actually contributing that much, which strikes the perfect balance between not helping the town and appearing like a fantastic townie. The issue with this strategy is that firstly it leads to some posts that just feel a little bit redundant (there's a lot of posts there, quite a few don't have that much content), but the bigger issue is that he's actually done it before, last time he was mafia, he spent the entire game targeting Sammy relentlessly, even though there was really not very much evidence or town support against him.
I didn't play that game, and I can't make any paragon with this, but ok this can make sense, but atm doesn't pull him at my eyes more suspicious than others
- Okay, you definitely just skimmed my post, but I pretty much said I was going to change but wanted to force bikex to speak first, don't know if we'll get that so I might just flip soon (tbh, I have no clue when the deadline is), if you want it more in depth just reread what I said.
I think I read exaxtly before, maybe I was too syntethic in my question, my point is how can you stimulate Bikex if he isn't online from pratically when he posted his single statement? The fact that have a vote against is helping to get involved, I agree, but in this case I would likely waited at least he was online a second time.
I'm now leaning towards just voting Knockout as mafia because this is way too suspicious for me, but I also still want to force activity, I'll throw out a Lynch Bikex vote for now to get him to make a post then maybe switch over to Knockout at the end of the day if I feel it's the right move.
One Thing I'd especially like to reiterate though is that when I defended Knockout earlier, it was not a defense of his game but a defense of active players in general, suggesting that we first look to the inactive players as we don't want to remove people who generate discussion. While I still believe that (why I'm voting bikex), I do still want to get Knockout out because obviously voting mafia is more important than someone who might just not have had time to come online.
ok this, but I think that next time Bikex will be online he will write something regardless having a lynch vote or not on his shoulders, I think that to support your ideas can be better to make pressure on Knockout already now, don't you? maybe later in the day a lot of player are not in time to follow your vote...
To everyone, I'm not encouraging to vote against Knockout because I still don't have a good idea on his alignment, I'm just trying to enter in Trek's logics
df_Trek wrote:
-Waghlon, can you go deeper in what you want to say?
Don't underestimate trekbmc.
Yes, ok, I understood this in last edition when he was mafia and totally deceived me, the one I had less suspects between mafia members that won without a death...but as far as this game is not to understand who is a good or a bad player, my question arise because from your post I feel you think he isn't pro-town, I hoped you could argue this more than just a warning post.
While I agree with your points about trekbmc, you seem to have left out a key element: He's a wildcard.
What's worse, he knows it and uses it to his advantage. I'm not saying he's mafia, but I'm saying that my dear friend Alastair isn't as stupid as he looks, and have made sure to leave red herrings for people to find and believe in.
Can you spell it out more for me because im clueless what you want to tell us and what your opinion about trekbmcs alignment is.