Mafia X | u up? x
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quadsas |
Posted on 18-01-2020 19:58
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knockout wrote:
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
I'm not sure lynching mostly at random is a good idea. In Mafia VIII we lynched a mafia player the first day (mostly by chance to be honest), drew the wrong conclusions from it and never got near the other two mafias for the rest of the game. Mafia IX went even worse for the town, when only townies were lynched (once deliberately putting up with lynching someone most players thought was pro-town).
I tend more to the idea TMM uttered back then of not lynching in the first days, basically giving the power roles of the town (especially the detective and the tracker) more time to get some infomation. Particularly the detective basically has to double-check each player, as he could get both a wrong pro-town (for the godfather) or a wrong pro-mafia (because of the framer). Randomly lynching will result in quickly reducing the pro-town faction while simultaneously cutting the amount of times the pro-town power roles who could find the mafia can learn something about what's going on. Doesn't sound too good to me. On the other hand we're at a 12-3 ratio at the moment, having some reserves of plain townies to hide the power roles and buy us some time to get them being of use.
How long do you expect that we have to wait until the detective/tracker find sth that they should tell us?
Literally one night? Saying someone didn't visit or is innocent is pretty powerful.
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df_Trek |
Posted on 18-01-2020 22:02
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knockout wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
Correct me if I'm being an idiot, but isn't the politician the best end game role the town has available in this game?
I know the doctor cannot protect themselves but can they protect the same person continuously? If so then the only 1 role claims makes some sense but overall I don't like the idea as it seems to me it would create 1 person that the town would look towards to drive the discussion which is what Jseadog said (and knockout agreed) that we don't want.
The doctor can protect the same person continiously but the mafia could use their strongman to kill the person anyway so i dont really like a one person claim. id say either everyone or none.
The mafia wins, when there are equal members of the anti-town and pro-town. This win condition removes most of the power of the politician in an endgame imo.
A fast though...maybe the tracker can track the politician claimed and see two things (the doctor should protect him):
- if he die he know who act on him so the doctor and the strongman
- if he survive he know a 100% townie (the doctor), and to have two townies that know each other is just good
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knockout |
Posted on 18-01-2020 22:19
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Nope. Tracker only sees who the politician acts on which is nobody. So this wouldnt work!
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Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 16:46
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df_Trek |
Posted on 18-01-2020 22:21
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Ah damn...I misunderstood his role...
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knockout |
Posted on 19-01-2020 02:03
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Alright, it kinda doesnt look like we get a majority for a massclaim (so unless someone changes his mind or wants to push harder for it tomorrow), i suggest we start looking at suspects now.
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
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quadsas |
Posted on 19-01-2020 02:22
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knockout wrote:
Alright, it kinda doesnt look like we get a majority for a massclaim (so unless someone changes his mind or wants to push harder for it tomorrow), i suggest we start looking at suspects now.
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
We are heavily considering the idea of not lynching, so why are you trying to push someone?
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jseadog1 |
Posted on 19-01-2020 03:19
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I am back and just caught up on the posts that I missed. I have not read anything yet concrete enough to warrant sending out a lynch vote. So I will stay idle for the time being.
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knockout |
Posted on 19-01-2020 10:28
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quadsas wrote:
We are heavily considering the idea of not lynching, so why are you trying to push someone?
Are we heavily considering?
Does this mean we shouldnt look for suspicious people?
Quadsas, do you have any reads on any players so far? Someone you think is more likely protown than the average player or someone you think is more likely mafia than the average player?
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Waghlon |
Posted on 19-01-2020 12:11
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crawls out of the woodwork
How about maybe we don't lynch anyone on day 1? The math clearly tells us that we are more likely to hit a townie than an actual mafia, and you all know that. Besides, noone is stupid enough to lose their shit over a single lynch vote.
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Croatia14 |
Posted on 19-01-2020 13:02
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what's the minimum amount of lynchs necessary for somebody being actually lynched?
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knockout |
Posted on 19-01-2020 13:30
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Croatia14 wrote:
what's the minimum amount of lynchs necessary for somebody being actually lynched?
1 at the end of the day (more than no lynch votes)
Or
More than half of the players at any time to end the day early
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ryant |
Posted on 19-01-2020 15:36
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sammyt93 wrote:
ryant wrote:
The only role I'd want to claim early if at all is the politician, they are probably the most dispensable role early game compared to the other power roles, think I've said before that after 2-3 days the others should really come out then when they have a little more information to share.
Im also lynching sammyt93, I normally have a blind spot for them and putting a lynch vote on him should make him post a little more beyond that first post which does at first glance look like solid logic.
I've changed my avatar since last game, hopefully having a more colourful one helps alleviate that issue for you a bit in this one.
not sure what I'm meant to think with this one
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jseadog1 |
Posted on 19-01-2020 18:35
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So ideally to guarantee a no lynch we should be voting NO LYNCH if we feel that way instead of not voting at all. Is there a time set in stone yet for when Day 1 will end?
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knockout |
Posted on 19-01-2020 19:28
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Seriously guys, look at the set-up again. Which investigative results do you expect to get after one night that it is worth giving up a discussion about suspects + lynch (our most valuable weapon against the mafia) for?
Tracker seeing someone visit the nightkill? I'll give you that. That would be best case. Likelyhood is good that it is the mafia killer although it could also be the detective. Or the doctor and the strongman was used although the odds are ofc super small.
Tracker seeing someone visit someone else? Could be doctor, detective or framer. But would you want to tell the town that this early? Surely not unless you feel very confident in your read.
Tracker seeing someone not visiting someone else? That tells us so little that it is not worth claiming the role for. Waste of a lynching opportunity.
Detective getting a town read? Is that really worth claiming the detective role and sacrifizing a lynch? And it could also have been the godfather.
Detective getting a mafia read? Worth claiming immediately since it is either the framer, strongman or the framed town person. The usefulness of this read depends a lot on how likely the investigative target is a target for framing too.
Also: Possibility of night kill on investigative role.
When you now add the likelyhood of the different events it should be obvious that a no lynch in the hope for a positive result in the night is not worth it.
Especially coupled with the opportunity to save themselves from the lynch by claiming late in the day if detective or tracker is on the lynching block. (would likely result in either the nightly strongman kill or a counter claim tomorrow) but we don't have to be extra cautious in fear of that
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knockout |
Posted on 19-01-2020 19:43
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knockout wrote:
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
It's been nearly 2,5 days of our ~4 days on the first game day and we have no discussion on any suspicisions / reads and we really need to get things rolling so here are my better town reads for now:
Spoiler These town reads are stronger than everything i have regarding mafia reads right now
- Bikex only has the one post #23 but i like the tone of his post a lot.
- df_trek did those short messages as mafia too but i like to see how his opinion on some things seem to change in a very believable way.
(slightly less strong read)
- sammys attempt to discuss the setup looks like a genuine attempt to improve his understanding of the situation. While that might not necessarily mean that he is also protown, I'm more confident in that allignment than most other players.
Do you agree / disagree? Who do you see as the most likely pro-town players? Who do you see as the most likely mafia members right now?
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sammyt93 |
Posted on 19-01-2020 20:07
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I'm going to throw out a vote to Lynch Jaxika for now as he is the only player yet to post even once.
I was hoping to see some more discussion in general as I'm finding it difficult to get a read on anyone so far.
The way things currently stand does benefit the mafia more that the town as the mafia starts with all the information they need to win the game and the town doesn't so I'd like to see the town trying to dig into each other more to get a better read on where everyone else stands.
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ryant |
Posted on 19-01-2020 20:07
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knockout wrote:
knockout wrote:
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
It's been nearly 2,5 days of our ~4 days on the first game day and we have no discussion on any suspicisions / reads and we really need to get things rolling so here are my better town reads for now:
Spoiler These town reads are stronger than everything i have regarding mafia reads right now
- Bikex only has the one post #23 but i like the tone of his post a lot.
- df_trek did those short messages as mafia too but i like to see how his opinion on some things seem to change in a very believable way.
(slightly less strong read)
- sammys attempt to discuss the setup looks like a genuine attempt to improve his understanding of the situation. While that might not necessarily mean that he is also protown, I'm more confident in that allignment than most other players.
Do you agree / disagree? Who do you see as the most likely pro-town players? Who do you see as the most likely mafia members right now?
While I did the same last game and was town I'm genuinely not too sure we can put this as a pro town read personally. For me its fairly innocuous to ask a random question on how the game works and still not offer real discussion on reads and so forth. For me, you could easily do that as mafia.
Even so, I do like sammy's thoughts on the politician role being strong late game as its good to break tie breaks especially if we have a less active town member late on.
df_trek's understading of the tracker role could be unintentional but can be seen as an attempt at deception? since I feel the tracker role is pretty easy to understand
Power roles should come out after 2-3 days as I've said before, one day is often not enough for people to get enough useful information like you've said. The politician is the only role that should come out to bait the strongman kill early imo.
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sammyt93 |
Posted on 19-01-2020 20:17
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ryant wrote:
knockout wrote:
knockout wrote:
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
It's been nearly 2,5 days of our ~4 days on the first game day and we have no discussion on any suspicisions / reads and we really need to get things rolling so here are my better town reads for now:
Spoiler These town reads are stronger than everything i have regarding mafia reads right now
- Bikex only has the one post #23 but i like the tone of his post a lot.
- df_trek did those short messages as mafia too but i like to see how his opinion on some things seem to change in a very believable way.
(slightly less strong read)
- sammys attempt to discuss the setup looks like a genuine attempt to improve his understanding of the situation. While that might not necessarily mean that he is also protown, I'm more confident in that allignment than most other players.
Do you agree / disagree? Who do you see as the most likely pro-town players? Who do you see as the most likely mafia members right now?
While I did the same last game and was town I'm genuinely not too sure we can put this as a pro town read personally. For me its fairly innocuous to ask a random question on how the game works and still not offer real discussion on reads and so forth. For me, you could easily do that as mafia.
Even so, I do like sammy's thoughts on the politician role being strong late game as its good to break tie breaks especially if we have a less active town member late on.
df_trek's understading of the tracker role could be unintentional but can be seen as an attempt at deception? since I feel the tracker role is pretty easy to understand
Power roles should come out after 2-3 days as I've said before, one day is often not enough for people to get enough useful information like you've said. The politician is the only role that should come out to bait the strongman kill early imo.
Wouldn't coming out after 2-3 days mean that we risk a mafia member claiming a role that they have already eliminated? How would we be able to tell that isn't the case if they don't have some evidence to backup their claim?
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ryant |
Posted on 19-01-2020 20:23
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sammyt93 wrote:
ryant wrote:
knockout wrote:
knockout wrote:
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
It's been nearly 2,5 days of our ~4 days on the first game day and we have no discussion on any suspicisions / reads and we really need to get things rolling so here are my better town reads for now:
Spoiler These town reads are stronger than everything i have regarding mafia reads right now
- Bikex only has the one post #23 but i like the tone of his post a lot.
- df_trek did those short messages as mafia too but i like to see how his opinion on some things seem to change in a very believable way.
(slightly less strong read)
- sammys attempt to discuss the setup looks like a genuine attempt to improve his understanding of the situation. While that might not necessarily mean that he is also protown, I'm more confident in that allignment than most other players.
Do you agree / disagree? Who do you see as the most likely pro-town players? Who do you see as the most likely mafia members right now?
While I did the same last game and was town I'm genuinely not too sure we can put this as a pro town read personally. For me its fairly innocuous to ask a random question on how the game works and still not offer real discussion on reads and so forth. For me, you could easily do that as mafia.
Even so, I do like sammy's thoughts on the politician role being strong late game as its good to break tie breaks especially if we have a less active town member late on.
df_trek's understading of the tracker role could be unintentional but can be seen as an attempt at deception? since I feel the tracker role is pretty easy to understand
Power roles should come out after 2-3 days as I've said before, one day is often not enough for people to get enough useful information like you've said. The politician is the only role that should come out to bait the strongman kill early imo.
Wouldn't coming out after 2-3 days mean that we risk a mafia member claiming a role that they have already eliminated? How would we be able to tell that isn't the case if they don't have some evidence to backup their claim?
Obviously that would be a risk but the mafia would have no clue that they would have killed the role they were planning to claim so them doing so could be suicide for them in my opinion - since its unlikely that the role they want to claim e.g. tracker is already dead. Because of that, its unlikely that they would do that IMO.
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df_Trek |
Posted on 19-01-2020 20:23
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Mine was actually a stupid fail, but as the roles are the same of last game I didn't read again the rules, and I remembered wrong about this.
Beside this, looking at Sammy case that seems at the moment one of the "hottest ", I feel his way of playing very very similar to last games where he was pro town...so at the moment I don't want to focus on him...
There are too many players staying silent imo, but there is likely a mafia member between the active ones (I feel stupid 3 mafia member remaining silent for so long)
Who I se acting different is ryant, but atm I can't judge as suspicious, because he admitted he didn't like his way of playing last games and maybe is trying to improve.
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