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PCM 18 AI and Man Game DB
Ulrich Ulriksen
A few thoughts:

@hillis: That is PCM riders not MG

@quadsas: Adjusting the slopes of the stages seems like a ton of work and sets up the stage designers to make a judgement about what is a fair slope. Plus it seems like the stages should dictate the racing and not the other way around.

I like Ollfardh's approach but the adjustments would need to be much more significant.

I also like Kentauras approach but the PCM DB prior to the HI/MO stat change was far closer to the desired post-change end point than the MG db is. The HI/MO gaps are bigger in the MG and there are more of them. It seems like you would end up creating a new distortion in the res stats. And wouldn't it be an advantage to cobblers or sprinters with good hill to suddenly get a big boost in res? I think you would have to pair this with some direct MT boost.

Developing on Olfardh's approach I calculated the average difference between the MT stat at each HI stat 77+ between the MG DB and PCM history (First table in spoiler). It is about 5.5 and it is relatively constant across all 77+ HI stats. Because it is relatively constant the adjustment wouldn't need to be that sensitive to the HI stat, just adding 6 to everyone's MT stat would get you close. I started from that and adjusted the top end to avoid values over 85 and get the average below 5.5. Ended up with the table in the spoiler.

The graph shows the MT stat distribution for riders over HI 77: in MG now, in the PCM DB and with my adjustment. A few big qualifiers:

1. Would need to address HI stat below 77
2. Not saying that it would be fair to do just showing what it would take to match the PCM DB as a proxy for what the AI expects.
3. This would fix the high HI riders being crippled by their MT stat but it would also increase the overall stat inflation.


i.imgur.com/4P92nBs.png


MG to PCM MT Diff at each HI Stat

Spoiler

Hill StatMG Ave MTPCM Ave MTDiff
77 70.8 75.9 5.15
78 71.4 77.1 5.73
79-81 71.2 76.8 5.55
82-85 70.6 78.2 7.62
Total 71.0 76.5 5.52



Test Adjustment Values by MT Stat

Spoiler

MT ValueMT AddNew MT
60666
61667
62668
63669
64670
65671
66672
67673
68674
69675
70676
71677
72678
73578
74579
75479
76480
77380
78381
79281
80282
81182
82183
83083
84084
85085



Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
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Ollfardh
I kept it small so it wouldn't be too OP, I definitely don't want to bring 80HI 60MO riders back to their glory days. If you want more, you will have to pay for it Wink
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Tamijo
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
A few thoughts:

@hillis: That is PCM riders not MG

@quadsas: Adjusting the slopes of the stages seems like a ton of work and sets up the stage designers to make a judgement about what is a fair slope. Plus it seems like the stages should dictate the racing and not the other way around.

I like Ollfardh's approach but the adjustments would need to be much more significant.

I also like Kentauras approach but the PCM DB prior to the HI/MO stat change was far closer to the desired post-change end point than the MG db is. The HI/MO gaps are bigger in the MG and there are more of them. It seems like you would end up creating a new distortion in the res stats. And wouldn't it be an advantage to cobblers or sprinters with good hill to suddenly get a big boost in res? I think you would have to pair this with some direct MT boost.

Developing on Olfardh's approach I calculated the average difference between the MT stat at each HI stat 77+ between the MG DB and PCM history (First table in spoiler). It is about 5.5 and it is relatively constant across all 77+ HI stats. Because it is relatively constant the adjustment wouldn't need to be that sensitive to the HI stat, just adding 6 to everyone's MT stat would get you close. I started from that and adjusted the top end to avoid values over 85 and get the average below 5.5. Ended up with the table in the spoiler.

The graph shows the MT stat distribution for riders over HI 77: in MG now, in the PCM DB and with my adjustment. A few big qualifiers:

1. Would need to address HI stat below 77
2. Not saying that it would be fair to do just showing what it would take to match the PCM DB as a proxy for what the AI expects.
3. This would fix the high HI riders being crippled by their MT stat but it would also increase the overall stat inflation.


i.imgur.com/4P92nBs.png


MG to PCM MT Diff at each HI Stat

Spoiler

Hill StatMG Ave MTPCM Ave MTDiff
77 70.8 75.9 5.15
78 71.4 77.1 5.73
79-81 71.2 76.8 5.55
82-85 70.6 78.2 7.62
Total 71.0 76.5 5.52



Test Adjustment Values by MT Stat

Spoiler

MT ValueMT AddNew MT
60666
61667
62668
63669
64670
65671
66672
67673
68674
69675
70676
71677
72678
73578
74579
75479
76480
77380
78381
79281
80282
81182
82183
83083
84084
85085




This is very close to the suggestion I had in mind, besides that i would have all riders not only punchers.

1/ Hill - 7 = new mountain with a limit of 75 (if existing MO>75 keep)
2/ OVl - 7 = new mountain (no limit)
BEST OF THOSE SHOULD BE NEW MOUNTAIN

Originally working with -6 but i think it is too much, as is could potentially hurt natural hydrids too much - we are looking for a way too help low level MO riders, but not overpower them, and they should not be too strong climber in mountain stages


Result of top 100 OVL riders
Last nameFMHTStReRcCoSpAcFDP
Taaramäe75857881798079526076707079
Bewley78767171787685838383687771
Ponzi76758468777276687680777468
Phinney73837783777476587275687183
Hagen77758572817472557379756672
Pluchkin74857579787879706774676679
Madrazo68857677818081556372666977
Spilak71848176798077696673706776
Herklotz72847774798078676876807678
Van Stayen76757960767180698478736360
Sagan72748368787470627376717868
Lutsenko69748368767370547281697068
Bakelants71748366807774627277736865
Tenorio68847680787679595967846879
Demare73758061757280638281706361
Lecuisinier71837577788079656774657077
Dombrowski70847571807878556075677271
Mohoric72748364787272506777717964
Bobridge73748377747469536980666677
Kritskiy75847580787678586867686279
Van Garderen73758269787572677079807569
Summerhill78747359767269837073817359
Gesink72828079777979656067716579
Degenkolb76746967737174728481706167
Swift74746870737082698482646170
De Bie73748372777669687275746568
Coquard73746665717484568483606579
Sicard73827876807982576470776576
Ewan75747160737180708381637173
Kinoshita73758266807773596877737166
Kristoff75746868757176788379696773
Skujins70748359807773676876666659
Grosu73747362747079628380667070
Keizer72817181757979595773726181
Schleck69837372747979516076686271
Morton70847673797878545767686873
Kump74747763767380738180707370
Amador69837477767377506671707076
Uran72827478758177555571676278
Wisniowski80737174757671817376747377
Beltran69798166737272596576787466
Alarcon69847367717473505978796666
Stallaert77736758766880817976676658
Ahlstrand74736760747379678382596472
Cattaneo70827079768080545170626479
Van der Lijke73737666737178648279666368
Trentin74737461767175817576675667
Blythe76736668767177827673727271
Kelderman70758270807573626772777170
Coppel76737582777772536473726382
Hirt70817473777979526576746773
Boeckmans73736860747181748183655860
Guarnieri76736651777683648281686275
Senechal75736765797470826974677165
Barguil70817570777782556475667670
Koretzky73758163777071637179737061
Vanspeybrouck76737162787172826769747962
Kudus69827672797779536270706772
Monsalve68817672798077566573696572
Guldhammer68817771747574697076716571
Van Avermaet76737459757273807675695970
Martin69817672767776546475716270
Theuns72737465767374807776646770
Kennaugh77736563747180588281706363
Gastauer69758266787068596776626266
Denifl70847672757176546665736472
Saber75736864747278768179636870
Fiedler79736883757678606663676382
Haig72807477767578586173706777
Groenewegen73736664747185598281596472
Howard76726868757079638279646568
Claeys73748364746869646773626364
Yates71797671798076566776717171
Henao Montoya70827171757977515873706271
Lo Cicero72726456716379698478546075
Holloway78726971777778658082696671
Roglic71807672757675666974727170
Di Maggio65758262736865516575677362
Borges70748060757370547181756560
Baugnies78727262807373806573746562
McCarthy70758158807570696574717158
Schreurs70758167767271627174696666
Kwiatkowski72787970747675686775736975
Jensen71748067777371556676817370
Wellens72817572798076626368647072
Marquez68807170707877516180756470
Buchmann71768067737474576573677067
Vanbilsen78726963807475807271726163
Lopez69787970747373506576787071
Guerao74726557716481688376717857
Meintjes71807771777678576169717471
Eastman70817177767576566269736673
Yates74737968777073527580746471
Daniel73726956767674807672697464
Ulissi76748062837172517475756362
Altur75727063757070817268706363
Olivier72807669768077596471707169
Cavendish72726465737078698280596475
Gerts77727867768074787270696772

 
TheManxMissile
Alternatively you could have listened pre-switch to anyone talking about PCM18, or played it yourself, to know MO was going to be a more significant stat this season and plan your team accordingly.
You had the opportunity to transfer in higher MO riders, or to train them yourself.

Punishing those prepared managers for a well known scenario is just wrong in my eyes. Especially when the MO situation has not been ruining the majority of riders, stages and results.

Now there could be a discussion about whether PCM18 is the right game for the 2020 season, or going back to PCM15 or ahead again to 19. And as we now have results to discuss and base this on now is absolutely the moment to start that debate. Not to get sidetracked with a frankly ridiculous idea to re-write every rider the in the DB to benefit those unprepared managers with specificly weak riders. (and i say that as one of the weakest MO teams in the entire game who would get great stat boosts from this)

And again i push for this to generate a real discussion about stat inflation and how it's reaching a genuinely broken point for the MG which needs a more radical solution. Because it is this inflation i think is causing more of the AI issues than a dodgy stat matrix.
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
SotD
Koretzky at +1 MO over Coquard?

I’m definately not a fan of making sprinters 73-76MO... The game AI can’t possibly be that crap, and how will we recover from these changes in the future?

I would think it was much better to just go back to PCM 15, if this version need this dramatic changes to the DB...
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Ollfardh
Bewley 76MO sounds horrible imo.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
alexkr00
TheManxMissile wrote:
And again i push for this to generate a real discussion about stat inflation and how it's reaching a genuinely broken point for the MG which needs a more radical solution. Because it is this inflation i think is causing more of the AI issues than a dodgy stat matrix.


I agree with you. This is what is breaking the game, not stages and not not twitched stats. And I like the idea of a reset but my biggest concern with that is it will erase a lot of MG history which is a great fun part of the game. And then there's the whole thing of a reset would be actually made.

Then again, I think things will get better in 2-3 seasons at least at the very top of the stats when riders born in 86-88 will have been declined because those are the riders that got massive training and not a lot of talents with potential stats of over 82 have been added. This problem might be fixed with time at PT level, but I think for PCT and CT there will still be a lot of riders with similar stats that will cause somewhat strange results.
i.imgur.com/S1M3OtV.png
i.imgur.com/wzkfv39.png
i.imgur.com/Uhicj1C.png
i.imgur.com/Ie56lsQ.png
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Tamijo
SotD/Ollfardh: It first glance some sprinters seems to get a lot of MO, but where is it usefull for them? They will survive a monutain mid stage - but you would not send a 74 MO 83 SP to a mountain race to beat 10, 79+ climbers, so it will only change things if we get a sprinter finish.

The worst option for me would be back to PCM15, with unrealistic fixed hills and tons of long cob's all that crap. PCM18 is so much better, we just created a shit database because we adjusted to a bad AI and unrealistic profiles.
Edited by Tamijo on 11-01-2020 13:04
 
Aquarius97
Your "solution" really is making every rider a 72-75 climber?
Manager of [MG] Repsol - Netflix


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Ollfardh
Some general thoughts about what's been said so far..

Midseason changes: Just no, it wouldn't be fair in so many ways
Postseason changes: Maybe, not convinced by the suggestions yet
Stat inflation: I think that problem will solve itself in due time as said above. If we can speed up the process by downgrading free agents in the offseason, I wouldn't mind that.
Going back to PCM15: No, as the Hi/Mo change seems to be here to stay, it would only delay the inevitable
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Tamijo
Aquarius97 wrote:
Your "solution" really is making every rider a 72-75 climber?


The top 100
 
TheManxMissile
We were saying inflation would get better in 2-3 seasons 2-3 seasons ago. But then we weren't suffering such notable issues from the problem relating to the AI. Now it is becoming a real problem! We should never be in a situation where each team in an entire division could have an 80+ rider from the same main stat. And we are seeing the real result from that where the AI cannot handle this, and we are generating totally random results in various races as a consequence.

I know a reset would be hugely unpopular, i admit it's a really radical solution. But it would allow us to tackle some of the real problems the game is experiencing, and provide a base to restructure the game for continued long term health.
There are other solutions we can explore, but i struggle to think of one that won't in some way re-write the history of the game. Although not all history is good. We could downgrade a lot of FA riders or non-renewed riders. We could put an increase on the rate of decline and bring the age of decline forawrd. We could put a complete stop on FA increases and new rider additions. We could change the development system to slow growth.

_____

I could not support raising MO stats to fix some hilly riders. Not without serious testing of the impacts on all types of stages and races for all divisions!
I certainly can't back making changes to a select group of riders, either it's a solution for all or none. Otherwise you're putting a huge advantage to some managers and not others based on an arbitrary cut offf line.

Perhaps we need to admit the MG DB matrix does not work with PCM18 + 19. A solution is to go back to 15, or my idea of a reset looks more reasonable to bring the game up-to-date with newer versions following such significant changes.
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
TheManxMissile wrote:

I know a reset would be hugely unpopular, i admit it's a really radical solution. But it would allow us to tackle some of the real problems the game is experiencing, and provide a base to restructure the game for continued long term health.



I am inclined to agree a reset might make sense, acknowledging I have no history.

The MG makes very little use of the lower ends of the stat range. My worst over 25 rider is a 70 OVL. My worst talent is a 66.5. And I was predicted to finish second to last in the lowest division.

You could just subtract 5 from every value and at least normalize the range. You would need to add some subtlety and randomization and address MO/HI but I think you could do a reset without radically changing the relationships between riders. There would be loss and there would be winners and losers but none of the options is perfect.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
knockout
@TMM: Can you explain which actions would be done in a "reset"? Not exactly sure what you are arguing for except that it is to counter inflation...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!

pcmdaily.com/images/awards/2015/Manteam.pngpcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mgmanager.png
 
TheManxMissile
knockout wrote:
@TMM: Can you explain which actions would be done in a "reset"? Not exactly sure what you are arguing for except that it is to counter inflation...


Start over with a new DB. Obviously make some changes to fit a few nationality requirements and preserve some history and rider changes. But in essence start over with a brand new DB, one that works with the PCM18 stat matrix and removes all the inflation.
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
redordead
I'll add my own 2 cents on the subject.

As someone who took the risk of betting on the mountain stat influence, I'd like to think I haven't done anything wrong. As Manx has said it doesn't make sense to punish managers that adjusted better to the game change.

As an example in the off season there was 32 Hill trainings, most of those to riders who already had a good hill stat. Whether that was due to ignorance, I don't know and I'm not here to criticise those managers. Probably the mountain influence needed to be more discussed and better communicated.

So lets find a sensible solution. Changing the DB midseason is not good idea imo. Neither is simply adding mountain stat points to the riders most affected. I don't see how that's fair to the riders who received the mountain stat by normal development/training and I'm guessing that's gonna make the stat inflation only worse. It has to be a give and take situation.

My suggestion is to allow the effected riders to be redeveloped and retrained to a degree. So for example during the offseason before renewals a currently maxed rider would be reset to his original stats as they were when the rider entered the DB. Then the manager would decide how the rider's stats are developed to suit his' and the game's needs. Even some of the invested training could be swapped to a different stat, if needed.

There might need to be a slight upgrade to the stat gains files, but after reworking the rider, a new OVL would be calculated more based on PCM18, so a fairer renewals process can be had.

I think this solution could ease the problem of stat inflation as every rider's stats would be normally gained. Also since this is a management game, the fact that managers can decide how to rework the riders, it adds an extra layer to the game. It's up to the managers to make the right decisions for their riders.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
baseballlover312
TheManxMissile wrote:
knockout wrote:
@TMM: Can you explain which actions would be done in a "reset"? Not exactly sure what you are arguing for except that it is to counter inflation...


Start over with a new DB. Obviously make some changes to fit a few nationality requirements and preserve some history and rider changes. But in essence start over with a brand new DB, one that works with the PCM18 stat matrix and removes all the inflation.


No way. Can't believe this is even suggested. I'd rather go back to PCM 15 for the next twenty years than destroy the DB. The DB is everything. The DB is the entire game.

There is no chance the game survives a full reboot with this forum in the activity state it's in. No chance.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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baseballlover312
Tamijo wrote:
SotD/Ollfardh: It first glance some sprinters seems to get a lot of MO, but where is it usefull for them? They will survive a monutain mid stage - but you would not send a 74 MO 83 SP to a mountain race to beat 10, 79+ climbers, so it will only change things if we get a sprinter finish.

The worst option for me would be back to PCM15, with unrealistic fixed hills and tons of long cob's all that crap. PCM18 is so much better, we just created a shit database because we adjusted to a bad AI and unrealistic profiles.


Knowing that a sprinter will finish a 3 week race easily also affects decisions in MG to a huge degree. It doesn't make sprinters win races, but it takes a huge element out of planning.

Edit: This basically goes for any chance, to stats, game, rules, etc. TMM says it's unfair to punish players who planned ahead as far as stats go. Yet he suggests messing with the age of decline and their speed. That is an even larger, more defined area of planning that can determine a teams plans for multiple years. Someone is gearing up for a promotion push, and then suddenly their star is declining and they lose all that value. Absolutely ridiculous.

What is wrong with going back to 15?
Edited by baseballlover312 on 11-01-2020 15:48
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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DubbelDekker
So there's actually two mostly separate issues being discussed in this thread:

1) The importance of MO went up and it makes some riders perform worse than last year. My opinion is "deal with it". You could have seen it coming and you can adapt in the future. I say this as the manager of Ginanni, who is definitely one of the main victims.

The only "solution" I want for this is an OVL adjustment at the end of the season. I'm strongly opposed to measures like selectively adjusting MO or RES stats.

2) AI is producing results that are too random. I agree with the assessment that this is probably a result of stat inflation. This is an issue where some form of stat manipulation might actually be necessary to solve it (after the season of course). The challenge here is to do it in a way that is fair to everyone.

To me the MG DB basically looks like someone took a normal PCM DB and increased all values by 2. And this brought me to a possible solution. Only decreasing FA stats will not be enough to fix the problem, so we need to adjust contracted riders too. And there's only one fair way to do that: decrease every stat of every rider by 1 or 2 points.

If we do this the relative strength of riders will stay the same, but with values closer to what the race engine was developed for. And going forward rider training will widen the skill distribution, which should decrease random results as well. It's also a solution that's easily repeatable if inflation becomes a problem again in the future.

So far I haven't been able to come up with any game breaking issues that would be caused by this. Am I missing something?
i.imgur.com/5iNQj.png
 
SotD
Finding and effectuating a fair stat-re-organazation would require a HUGE amount of work, and I can't back that tbh.

As I see it we have 3 options:

1) Adapt to the new game without altering the DB
2) Switch to a game that deals properly with the DB
3) Make a complete MG reboot, where all teams start without riders and implement a new DB.
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