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Mafia IX | Tick Tock Tick Tock
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 11:42
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 01:38
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Sammy made a desperate last second attempt to get a lynch on me which makes no sense considering quadsas ended up town. That might clear sammy in my eyes.
I'd like to get some insight from TMM on the status of the game at the moment. It's late here and I will analyze the game more tomorrow.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 10:34
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jseadog1 wrote:
Sammy made a desperate last second attempt to get a lynch on me which makes no sense considering quadsas ended up town. That might clear sammy in my eyes.
I'd like to get some insight from TMM on the status of the game at the moment. It's late here and I will analyze the game more tomorrow.
+1
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 11:13
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My quick couple of cents towards the kills, as I'm heading off to Denmark for the weekend (and not sure how often I'm going to be online).
Night Kill: No surprise at all. I'm more surprised that the doctor didn't protect ryant tbh, as he was the only proven townie and a clear target imo. Ryant didn't say much besides switching on Marco at the first day.
While talking about the first day, I have to admit to sammy that I was wrong about my theory that you may be mafia alongside quasas. However, looking at the votings that have taken place for Marco on the first night, it was quasdas, ryant and sammyt9 voting for marcovdw. Two of them are dead and townies. I still have the gut feeling that on a townie lynch in the first night there most likely has to be a driver of the mafia firing into that direction, so I still find sammy suspicious from that point.
However, there is certainly more dirt involved, so let's take a look on who voted for quasdas to die on the day kill: We've got bbl, hillis and jseadog. To be honest, I wasn't fully convinced of keeping him alive either as I believed that him and sammy may be mafia together, but more importantly the idea of lynching quasdas was very quickly driven on the second day. There are obvious reasons for lynching him, his stupid gameplay ideas and outrageous conversation style first and formost, so with his play he sadly gave more non-objective reasons to be lynched that anybody else, so these "lynchers" have less relevance than if any other person would've been killed.
Looking at the content though, I would propose to focus on these three (+sammyt93) atm. I believe that we have at least 2 mafiosos in there, thriving towards a lynch of another townie that is the "easiest to fire away" on day 2.
Hillis started the lynching on quasdas which is very interesting. It was a response to a random activity shot on him by jseadog, who later fired the same on trekbmc. Bbl joined the lynching very much in line with his tone on the first day, Then, after some crossfire, jseadog also joined the bandwagon. My best guess so far is this:
Hillis is mafia. He started the lynch train on quasdas, knowing that it'd be kind of easy to frame him. Bbl joins. He's sick and tired of quasdas game, also fooled by quasdas' awful decision making on game one (as many of us). I give him the non-mafia trait. Then jdog comes in. He first crossfires to hillis, which could well have been a fake move, only to then jump on the wagon of lynching quasdas.
As we have to risk closer theories now looking at the townie to mafia ration, I'm going for the following theory: Df_trek and TMM are townies. They both played like innocent people imo, and while I don't agree with their decision making so far, I think they're pro-town. Sammyt93 and trekbmc had major flaws in their game on day 1 especially. I think one of those may be mafia.
Summing up my guesses, in Italic my mafia guesses.
Townies: df_trek, TMM
1/2 mafia: sammyt93, trekbmc
2/3 mafia: bbl, hillis91, jseadog1
I'm going to vote lynch jseadog for now. As I'm not sure when to be able to watch this next time in-depth, I'd love to have somebody summing stuff up for me close to the deadline on Sunday afternoon in detail, so that I need fewer time to make a quality decision if necessaty. |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 21-06-2019 11:47
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Can you be more precise on what you don't agree on my actions? So I can try to enlarge my pov.
Now I have to say that Sammy is under my lens from early in day 1, and he was confirmed at my top suspicious list in particular after Marco lynch, that actually came when imo the city accepted he was likely pro town, quasdas admitted too. Fortunately for him I found TMM very doubtful on day 2, and with already a long train on quasdas I preferred to remain on a player with 2 votes.
Moreover the second night kill can be a smart move to take off a confirmed townie that already pointed at him but somehow the city underestimated his thoughts.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 21-06-2019 13:00
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Seems that none is talking unless there're some lynch votes around here. I lynch Sammyt93, because he looks the one that often check and stalls until the right moment to sting. Day 1 is a good example, and tried the same on day 2. Also the strong defence on the short-life quasdas can be a point to bring for a townie claim, despite knowing he was the most likely player going to be lynched.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 21-06-2019 13:51
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Unfortunately as df said ryant's death doesn't really give us anything to go on, so my ideas are largely unchanged from the previous day.
imo though I really would've preferred to lynch TMM, quadsas' death was really not a bad move because he was being pretty damaging to the town through the centralisation of discussion and some pretty bad suggestions and I think the guys who were making it were acting in the best interests of the town, even if he was a townie in the end.
atm, I reckon TMM and Sammy are still the most likely mafia candidates, Sammy because he has been really intent on defending quadsas' odd moves, particularly in terms of revealing power roles and TMM because he has just played in a completely different way than previous games where he was town, which honestly makes him incredibly suspicious to me, as every game in the past he's been a key player taking a front stage role, while this time we have barely seen him. I could be swayed to vote Sammy possibly, but for now I'm casting a Lynch TMM vote again.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 15:37
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First thing that needs to be pointed out is that there are only 8 players left alive, 3 mafia vs 5 town so if we lynch wrongly today it is the end of the game barring a doctor save.
I'm not sure if that changes how anyone thinks of this day but I want to mention it early to make sure everyone is aware.
Out of the 5 townies left alive we have 2, likely 3 of the power roles left, if they have found something so far now would be a good time to enlighten us,
Even though everybody I have told you is town and voted alongside or to protect is now dead I still feel like I am not trusted by the majority of you.
@Mod,
If the strongman kill is used are we made aware it was or would you not mention it?
Knowing whether or not that would have been mentioned in the night kill impacts my analysis of it.
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| knockout |
Posted on 21-06-2019 15:51
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sammyt93 wrote:
@Mod,
If the strongman kill is used are we made aware it was or would you not mention it?
I would not mention it.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 15:58
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@Croatia14:
How does me starting the lynch vote on quasdas make me a mafia suspect? I made it very clear as to why i wanted him gone. He was more destructive to the town then beneficial IMO.
Current votes are:
jseadog (Croatia14)
Sammyt93 (df_Trek)
TMM (trekbmc)
Theirfor im going to hold on with my vote, so that a quick vote is not in play.
@sammyt93: Why did you want Marco gone? And who do you see as the 3 most suspect town members?
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:08
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sammy has a point with his last message. We need to be correct today and it might actually be time to start revealing roles. I will get other opinions (TMM!) and maybe bbl before I continue with any revelations, but we are skating on thin ice right now.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:08
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Lynch Trekbmc F*ck you 
I explained in my previous reply to you why i'm less active and involved. And i'm far from the only quiet one thus far.
My whole position over two days was "These early lynchings are bad, we will get them wrong. Don't be distracted by Quesadilla." And what happened? 4 townies are, we're in a 5v3 scenario without the doctors protection and we know minmal else because people got distracted by the tortialla.
Lynch an innocent today, the game ends immediately because the strongman uses his power. Anyone who threw out a quick lynch needs to up their game in explaining why, as we cannot afford a mistake!
I have more thoughts to offer, but i will wait and see where the rest of the lynch votes go first.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:09
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Lynch Trekbmc F*ck you
I explained in my previous reply to you why i'm less active and involved. And i'm far from the only quiet one thus far.
My whole position over two days was "These early lynchings are bad, we will get them wrong. Don't be distracted by Quesadilla." And what happened? 4 townies are, we're in a 5v3 scenario without the doctors protection and we know minmal else because people got distracted by the tortialla.
Lynch an innocent today, the game ends immediately because the strongman uses his power. Anyone who threw out a quick lynch needs to up their game in explaining why, as we cannot afford a mistake!
I have more thoughts to offer, but i will wait and see where the rest of the lynch votes go first.
Thoughts on everyone revealing their role at this point in the game?
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:20
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We need to get going.
And since im one of the remaining few with a non-exotic role i'll go first:
Townie
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:38
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@knockout, Thank You
That means I can't make any conclusion about whether the doctor is paying attention or not.
@Hillis
Because it was obvious to me, even though no-one else could see it, that Quadsas was the most likely to be town aligned on the first day, he was trying to play the game at a higher level than has previously been played on this forum, I could understand his logic and agreed with it.
Then I voted to save Quadsas, following the vote of the only confirmed Townie thus far in Ryant which in doing so made ryant go from 99% certain townie (the 1% being you counter claiming as you hadn't posted yet by that point) to 100% without you posting seeing as the role he claimed ended up being what decided the tied vote.
Note Ryant was also defensive of Quadsas on the first day and both turned out to be town.
I stated at the time that I believed BBL was more likely Mafia than marco, but there wasn't enough time to get him lynched instead.
Marco, realised his fate early enough to confirm that he was just a townie and that the town wasn't losing one of it's power roles. That was the point I knew Marco was 100% town, but I was confident that Quadsas' style of play was more likely to generate a lead on who is mafia than what I had seen Marco bring to the table up to that point.
As to who I think are the most suspect members now, there isn't as much to go on as I would have liked to have at this point. The analysis of who wanted Quadsas gone isn't going to be as successful as if anyone else had been lynched.
I had previously thought df_trek was likely townie but his comments today make me less sure, he is still showing more townie signs than anyone else has but I'm less sure overall, from 90% to 70% sure he is town. I now don't want to definitively rule him out from being mafia but he is still someone I consider the worst target for today at least, depending on his reasoning and questioning today I might look into him tomorrow if we get a tomorrow but it doesn't feel worth it to pursue him today.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:41
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Lynch Trekbmc F*ck you
I explained in my previous reply to you why i'm less active and involved. And i'm far from the only quiet one thus far.
My whole position over two days was "These early lynchings are bad, we will get them wrong. Don't be distracted by Quesadilla." And what happened? 4 townies are, we're in a 5v3 scenario without the doctors protection and we know minmal else because people got distracted by the tortialla.
Lynch an innocent today, the game ends immediately because the strongman uses his power. Anyone who threw out a quick lynch needs to up their game in explaining why, as we cannot afford a mistake!
I have more thoughts to offer, but i will wait and see where the rest of the lynch votes go first.
Knockout's previous message after I asked if he would mention if the strongmam used his power or not confirmed it won't be mentioned when used.
Therefore I ask you why you think it wasn't used on ryant last night, unless you are the strongman you wouldn't know for sure that it is still in play.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 16:43
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jseadog1 wrote:
sammy has a point with his last message. We need to be correct today and it might actually be time to start revealing roles. I will get other opinions (TMM!) and maybe bbl before I continue with any revelations, but we are skating on thin ice right now.
This post pretty much confirms you have a role, just not which one so you may aswell just come out and mention it.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 21-06-2019 17:50
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sammyt93 wrote:
I had previously thought df_trek was likely townie but his comments today make me less sure, he is still showing more townie signs than anyone else has but I'm less sure overall, from 90% to 70% sure he is town. I now don't want to definitively rule him out from being mafia but he is still someone I consider the worst target for today at least, depending on his reasoning and questioning today I might look into him tomorrow if we get a tomorrow but it doesn't feel worth it to pursue him today.
Based on? Pointing you? Specify please...I'm following same line I had before...
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 18:42
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df_Trek wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
I had previously thought df_trek was likely townie but his comments today make me less sure, he is still showing more townie signs than anyone else has but I'm less sure overall, from 90% to 70% sure he is town. I now don't want to definitively rule him out from being mafia but he is still someone I consider the worst target for today at least, depending on his reasoning and questioning today I might look into him tomorrow if we get a tomorrow but it doesn't feel worth it to pursue him today.
Based on? Pointing you? Specify please...I'm following same line I had before...
The death of ryant, something that definitely doesn't tell much to the city.
To say it doesn't tell us much feels wrong as it means we either don't have to worry about the strongman kill anymore, or the doctor was not paying attention at all to the thread (Ryant came out as politician day 1, questionable on whether he should have been protected or not due to mind games with mafia night 1, should definitely have been protected night 2) even if the doctor wasn't on late day 2/ overnight, at this point protecting ryant should at least have been sent to knockout as a default order for if they can't get online.
This is why I asked if knockout would mention if the strongman kill was used, if he would have mentioned it, and it wasn't used then the doctor is playing very badly or was Jandal, the fact it won't be mentioned when used suggests it was used to kill through an attempted save on Ryant, seeing as it's likely the last day I wouldn't be against the doctor confirming who he tried to save last night to clear this up.
He was pretty inactive and pointed (besides Marco on first day) Sammy and TMM, but with skinny argumentation. Maybe the reasons we can find for this kill are:
1- he was likely the only one who anyhow the townies won't lynch.
2- his death gives low tracks for the city.
3- the politician can be really uncomfortable with less and less players.
I agree with you that the town wouldn't lynch Ryant, and that him being the only confirmed role makes him the best target for the mafia night 2, however I couldn't find where he pointed at me apart from when people though I switched from voting Quadsas to Marco, when I never voted Quadsas, I was previously on Jseadog after calling for his first post.
That was a mistake Jandal made, thinking it was me voting Quadsas, when it was Jseadog voting Quadsas that lead to that confusion.
Unless you have something else where Ryant pointed towards me that I can't find saying he did, apart from one comment I found doesn't seem to hold true.
The fact that twice you have said that I like to stall my comments doesn't really ring true either, I just don't look as often as you seem to think I do, the first day I posted every time I looked at the forum apart from once where the you/jandal/quadsas argument was going on and I had already said I was waiting for others to post.
Also the strong defence on the short-life quasdas can be a point to bring for a townie claim, despite knowing he was the most likely player going to be lynched.
This also seems to ignore the fact that I had strongly been defending Quadsas all game and reads as you trying to spin it to a last ditch attempt to save him on day 2 only to try and clear myself of doubt rather than that I had aligned myself with his viewpoint all game. It feels like you are miss-selling my alignment/viewpoint which makes you more suspicious than you previously were.
It makes me question if Quadsas' initial read on you as mafia might have been less to do with you arguing with him and more based on something else, even thoughmy initial read of you was town and I'm still leaning most likely to be town out of everyone left on you just not as heavily as before.
Can you be more precise on what you don't agree on my actions? So I can try to enlarge my pov.
I do really like this though, as it seems like a genuine attempt to expand your knowledge/ listen to another way of thinking/ willingness to hear something you may have missed.
Moreover the second night kill can be a smart move to take off a confirmed townie that already pointed at him but somehow the city underestimated his thoughts.
Again I found 1 passing comment, and considering I aligned myself to the most controversial player and the only confirmed townie so far, killing Ryant with the night kill would be signing my own death sentence if it came from me.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 21-06-2019 18:46
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btw, we already know Ryant was politician, Marco had time to claim a role before he died if he had one, as knowing he was a town role would have been enough to save him considering who was online when he died and worth telling the town before he died, so we can rule him out from being a town role, it's obvious from quadsas wanting the town roles to come forward that he would have said if he was one so we can rule him out from having a town role and know he was just a normal townie. The only dead player that could have had a town role is Jandal, so we know there probably are 3 town roles still alive, it would only 2 if Jandal was one of them.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 21-06-2019 23:56
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sammyt93 wrote:
it's obvious from quadsas wanting the town roles to come forward that he would have said if he was one so we can rule him out from having a town role and know he was just a normal townie.
He actually said he was just a townie,
...I'm looking now at your longer post
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
