knockout wrote:
Croatia, do you still say / is it still true that you basically read every post only once in this game and dont do any rereads etc?
Ive spent some time rereading, especially when defending ryant and myself on the 2nd day. Did not reread the first day, as my impression was that focussing on the 2nd day was a lot more valuable.
I indeed do not like the post of Ian Butler. With the reasoning for his lynch there in my opinion would've been equally fishy less active participants (eventhough yes, I had jseadog high up on my suspicions on day 1, but that changed throughout day 2). I also partly side df_treks argumentation, especially in his last post. Ian effectively did both at the end - first not lynching in a crucial situation and then lynching to possibly wash his name clean to nail the coffin on an..."oops"...townie.
I also like bbl on the list, as he did not provide one really good argument so far. I tend to agree with kandesbunzler, but would like to add that bbl did, if he posted, a lot of these in-between mainstream posts. Which is always worse than a strong own opinion - Which I especially like on the posts of kandesbunzler, (ryant), (knockout), jseadog, df_trek so far. Raising the voice always benefits the town, so I'd like to see the quiet ones come out now.
Ian Butler wrote:
I am leaving for Germany tomorrow morning. Sorry if that got misunderstood. I am not gone yet, though packed and ready now!
Whatever else, I do want to make clear that I am not using that as a trick for the game. I wouldn't lie about a real life event to hide something in the game, here I give you my word. Even if I were mafia, I wouldn't use such lies as a tactic, honestly.
i hope you don't feel that I'm doubting about your planned trip in Germany
my points are others, seems quite clear imo
I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong about ryant. Entirely wrong. I fell into the trap of taking his erratic responses to questioning as an admission of guilt, and that was wrong. People are more complicated than that.
I'll also admit I paid a lot less attention on Day 2 than Day 1, and that was also wrong of me. I really thought I had cracked the mafia when Aquarius was lynched, so when Sammy was then killed, I was kind of at a loss to start from scratch with my thinking. That, combined with a lot of university responsibilities this past week, made me susceptible to jump on the ryant lynch train and not look deeply enough into other possibilities. But in my defense, and everyone else's, ryant's behavior the moment he started getting votes was almost too insane to overlook. It's like he wanted to draw even more attention to himself rather than defuse the situation.
As far as the lynch vote on myself, I think my actions speak for themselves. I was the first vote on Aquarius, who was a mafia member, when most people were at a loss. Yes, I did so under a theory that ended up being false, but if I was mafia, the result would be the same - singling out and killing one of only two allies right at the beginning. It doesn't make any sense for a mafia member to do that on day 1. It's a numbers game, and that puts you at too much of a disadvantage going forward. Maybe late game if you're close to a win scenario with the whole mafia left, it would make sense in order to solidify yourself as trustworthy. But not on Day 1.
I was also fervent about killing Sammy too because I thought they were in it together. In the end, he was town, as we learned because he was killed that very night. I stated that I thought the mafia kill was strange then, and I still do. It's not what I would have done. The smart play imo would have been to kill someone else. Then, I would have been able to use the fact that my Aquarius prediction was correct to lead a crusade against Sammy, and get a 2 for 1.
Of course, that's not how it played out, because my theory was wrong, and I wasn't in control.
I'm not entirely sure where to go from here. I've been thinking over my previous point before quite a bit. I've trusted knockout most of the game, but the fact that he's still alive is very strange to me, especially given the Sammy kill. Killing a mason makes enough sense to foment a townie mislynch from the town, but the Sammy kill still doesn't make sense. Given that knockout has been the de facto town leader for the entire game so far, I'm surprised he wouldn't be a target to send the town into a frenzy.
Therefore, I think that if knockout was a townie, and his insights were correct, he would be dead by now. That to me, means one of two possibilities.
1.) Knockout is mafia. He's playing us for fools, and all of his analysis has been neatly contrived to send us in the wrong direction. Yes, he voted for Aquarius, but only after I did. It makes enough sense for a mafia member to jump on a lynch train of their ally if they think it's likely he gets lynched anyway, and said lynch train had already begun. Since knockout usually has a great gauge of the town atmosphere, this is possible.
2.) Knockout is valuable to the mafia as a town member because he's on the wrong track. He's powerful at leading the town, but he's not leading us to the actual mafia. The mafia can thus use him in order to distract the town, get us to mislynch, and then dispose of him when he becomes an actual threat, or let the town lynch him as a decoy.
Note that these two possibilities are almost indistinguishable to the rest of us townies, so it's hard to know, and I'm not accusing him here. My point is that neither of these circumstances are good for us. It means that the mafia is ahead of us in planning, and our main analyst, his intentions aside, is not actually helping.
Finally, we really need to hear from Trekbmc soon. It can be stupid to base all suspicion on post frequency, for sure. It's something I've accused others of and been guilty of. But it could also be a way, probably a stupid one, to try to get us to forget about him. I doubt it, but it's possible. He needs to speak up. He's been online since his day one post. Even if he's short on time, just a sentence would be better than nothing.
That's all I've got for now, but I promise to be more active and critical today than yesterday. I won't slip up again.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
baseballlover312 wrote:
As far as the lynch vote on myself, I think my actions speak for themselves. I was the first vote on Aquarius, who was a mafia member, when most people were at a loss.
I hope I made clear that my lynch vote was not for your actions or a peculiar mafia-suspicion, but to get you more involved again and to get you utter your thoughts (and in the later day: suspicions).
This in mind I find your thoughts related to knockout surviving until now very interesting. But what are your conclusions out of it? Who is it we have to go for (if knockout is just wrong)? Or should we focus on knockout?
I have another suggestion to make: Maybe everyone should think about what has happened in his opinion until now (not the facts of course, we all know them, but rather some kind of reasoned speculation about who could have worked together for what reasons). It could prove productive if everyone has to form a theory and give it to the others, not primarily for accusing others and get lynch votes, but for giving the others food for thought.
What do you think about this idea?
Meanwhile I'll change my vote from bbl (for I am hopeful it achieved what it should in the first place) to lynch trekbmc, so he is forced to let us hear something (as he is apparently online from time to time).
baseballlover312 wrote:
As far as the lynch vote on myself, I think my actions speak for themselves. I was the first vote on Aquarius, who was a mafia member, when most people were at a loss.
I've actually tried to figure out an answer to a related question to think about your role in the game and i think your read on me and my read on you should both depend a bit on the answer to it: Hillis was still far ahead in the vote count and we had no chance to suspect he'd be a mason. How likely was it at the point of our posts against Aquarius that Aquarius would be lynched? I havent found an answer on it myself.
baseballlover312 wrote:
As far as the lynch vote on myself, I think my actions speak for themselves. I was the first vote on Aquarius, who was a mafia member, when most people were at a loss.
I hope I made clear that my lynch vote was not for your actions or a peculiar mafia-suspicion, but to get you more involved again and to get you utter your thoughts (and in the later day: suspicions).
This in mind I find your thoughts related to knockout surviving until now very interesting. But what are your conclusions out of it? Who is it we have to go for (if knockout is just wrong)? Or should we focus on knockout?
I have another suggestion to make: Maybe everyone should think about what has happened in his opinion until now (not the facts of course, we all know them, but rather some kind of reasoned speculation about who could have worked together for what reasons). It could prove productive if everyone has to form a theory and give it to the others, not primarily for accusing others and get lynch votes, but for giving the others food for thought.
What do you think about this idea?
Meanwhile I'll change my vote from bbl (for I am hopeful it achieved what it should in the first place) to lynch trekbmc, so he is forced to let us hear something (as he is apparently online from time to time).
I don't have any conclusions out of it because I think those two possibilities are pretty much impossible to tell apart at this point. So I can't accuse him or anything. The only real conclusion I have is for knockout (assuming he's town) is that I think he's safety thus far is a sign that his thinking has inadvertently protected the mafia.
As for a cohesive theory, that's something for tomorrow when I have a whole day to think it over and write. My theories so far have been incorrect, so I have to revisit everything from the beginning.
baseballlover312 wrote:
As far as the lynch vote on myself, I think my actions speak for themselves. I was the first vote on Aquarius, who was a mafia member, when most people were at a loss.
I've actually tried to figure out an answer to a related question to think about your role in the game and i think your read on me and my read on you should both depend a bit on the answer to it: Hillis was still far ahead in the vote count and we had no chance to suspect he'd be a mason. How likely was it at the point of our posts against Aquarius that Aquarius would be lynched? I havent found an answer on it myself.
It was pretty dang unlikely for Aquarius to be lynched at the point I placed the first vote on him. As of #76, there were 7 players with lynch votes, and none of them were Aquarius. Then a couple more came in for hillis, who was the overwhelmingly the favorite to be lynched when I voted for Aquarius in #84.
Then your post condemning Aquarius came very soon after, and you were the next to vote for him, all while Hillis was the obvious favorite for lynching. In fact, looking back on it, I'm a bit less inclined to believe you're mafia given that analysis against the grain at such a crucial time. I didn't remember how unlikely an Aquarius lynch was then until I read it back.
Still, if you are truly town, I still believe the most likely option going forward is scenario 2 then, which means we need a new strategy and line of thinking.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
As promised my reaction to ryants (and croatias) day 2 posts. The key part that is important to understand some of my thoughts is outside of the spoiler. Inside of the spoiler there is the reply to most of his posts although warning - most of it is very bloated and only chronologically sorted. If you dont want to read through everything the spoiler could be skipped/skimmed only while the part afterwards is very important - and ryant had a big part in getting me there.
Spoiler
-quotes shortened to only relevant parts to not make this post explode-
ryant wrote:
Everything I've done I've explained - I was uncomfortable with lynching Aquarius because I thought the reason why he was originally under suspicion was based on his first post? Which I believed wasn't strong enough to warrant lynching him.
That was the startpoint to the discussion but my suspicion was basically entirely based on post #79 (as written in #86) and bbl also used that post as a trigger for his vote. Others might have voted for him solely because of the timing but dismissing any other argument simplifies it too much and looks like a very weak defense for the own position.
sammyt93 wrote: I think we will learn a lot from the first mafia kill, who they take out might tell us more than who gets lynched unless we get enough discussion going beforehand. We definitely shouldn’t get complacent about the long days.
Sammy was extremely suspicious of Jseadog, so mafia killing him could be an intentional hitjob on him since Sammy specifically said these words. Of course we could be going around in circles with this logic anyway but that's my 2 cents. He also stated he'd prefer lynching df_trek over Aquarius too - doesn't exonerate him like Jseadog but I'm not sure what you guys think?
This looked a lot like a false trace to me. I'd say the main ideas of a mafia for night kills are:
- Killing strong argumentative players
- Killing players who are on the right track
- Killing confirmed townies
- Killing players with special skills (in this game: only the doctor, in other games detective, gunsmith, etc)
Based on the game i was mafia i would add: Kill players whose death doesnt give the town any information.
And rather rarely imo: Framing other people.
Framing jseadog doesnt make much sense imo because sammyt himself would be an easy target for a lynch the next day - much easier than jseadog if you ask me. Probably more likely to be one of the other reasons. I wrote my post speculating that doctor hunting would probably be the most likely one but if others have different opinions that is fair enough too. However, i dont think it makes any sense to exonerate those that sammy suspected - rather makes them a bit more suspicious if you believe he was killed because of being on the right track.
Croatia14 wrote:
Oh btw: Sammys lynch was quite obvious imo - there has been this kind of beef between him and Aquarius at the beginning right? I can't recall who, But I remember stating them as both opposite sides iirc
Opposite sites: Nope, not at all. There was the timing incident and then both of them barely talked about each other all day long. And it doesnt appear obvious at all. At the time of the post i figured that you might attempt to sweap the kill under the carpet for a later doctor claim but if you have only read it once that might be an excuse for this stance, too.
Croatia14 wrote:
3. Lynching me seems to be objectively inherently stupid. Remember I was the guy that clearly defended Hillis before the mason stuff that saved him. I wouldn't have had any reason to do that, as I could've just smiled and waved and see him dying. Thus accusing me makes you even more suspicious I guess.
Dude what? Objectively inherently stupid? Oh come on, bitch please. Then it would be also objectively inherently stupid to lynch me who did the same thing in my post #86. And if you want to say you were first, well take a look at #75 where while not writing anything about hillis, you might spot that i mention the exact same thing that i would later use as a defense against hillis. So clearly you would be objectively inherently stupid to ever suspect me in this game?
Nothing is objectively inherently stupid in this game. There is so much circle logic going on that it isnt that easy. Being right doesnt mean you're town and being wrong doesn't mean your mafia.
You wont get in-depth explanations in a manner that many do here as I won't invest as much time as others do right now and as long as I only play from the phone- it's a pain in the ass to write posts with multiple quotes in few time from the phone as you may know. The list, as stated before, was about gut-feelings. In comparison to many others I gave a full list of people that I figured out to be more suspicious and people.
I massively disliked this. Not because you didnt want to give in-depth explanation but because you barely gave any reasons at all. Giving a full list of people is nice but useless if you dont give us at least a little wink about why they are there. If you dont put them there and dont want to give a reason when asked i have to assume that you want to hide them so you can change them later. Defending a townie based on emotions is probably the easiest thing to do for a mafia member because you dont have to find good arguments and can still say "told ya so"
Croatia14 wrote:
c) If you were a townie and I wanted one dead, WHY WOULDN'T I JUST HAVE LET HILLIS die? Both impulses of trusting him and masons exposing themselves came from me. Why would I have proposed such measures if I could've just played it safe if I would've been a mafia member?
In all honesty, with point c alone I don't really understand why I'm even in consideration to be the top target in the day time. Guys, please do rethink this matter.
Because people expect you to be right at some points. Because people look for those that stay quiet and just accept a townie being lynched. And i repeat asking the masons to expose is nothing that should give you or anyone town credit because of reasons i stated earlier (it's an easy way to "contribute" without actually fingerpointing or looking for mafia)
Oh and again: why would you even consider me being a mafia member if i did the very same thing that should exclude you from being in consideration at this time?
Aquarius97 wrote (#87):
Are Masons really that important? I mean, with your "idea" mafia loses the terrorist in exchange for two townies at the very start of game. From 10/3 to 8/2 ratio and with two powerless mafia roles. I'd dare to say that it wouldn't be the smartest move by mafia...
This is the quote kandes used to depict Aquarius didn't want the masons revealed in my mind proves the opposite. He's speaking from (ironically) a mafia point of view where the mafia kills one mason and then bombs the other, bringing up the 2 for 1 that he references in the post. By this, he says that it would be 'bad' for the mafia to take this trade as the resulting mafia:town ratio is reduced and would make mafia's chances of winning lower than before. Therefore, Aquarius would have been in favour of the masons coming out all along (he never changed his mind). In fact the quote kandes brought up was in response to Sammy, who incidently argued masons shouldn't come out because of the 2 for 1 trade situation he imagined.
Therefore, kandes' not well thought out conclusions from the rest of the post should be discarded (I would rather he think Im not mafia for one...)
Now, in my opinion this is symptomatic of this town 'bandwagoning' on what they see as a mistake and then trying to shoehorn everything else that person does into an argument that said person is mafia - even if it doesn't really make sense. Now I'm not saying kandes is mafia from his misunderstanding here - Im assuming that English isn't his first language and that he simply mistook Aquarius' intentions of posting that message.
Knockout could still be mafia in my eyes (not lynching him as that would be me making my deathbed) as he instantly shut down Aquarius' last line of defence here:
Croatia14 wrote:
I don't like lynching Aquarius either - he stepped first on the wagon of masons showing themselves asap when no mainstream opinion was built, something I don't think he would've done this early if mafia.
as stated with hillis before I also tend towards trusting Aquarius.
I will change my vote from jseadog to df_trek if people believe that he is more suspicious and we could rescue Hillis and maybe Aquarius like this
Im not willing to use his masons post as a defense against him. That is exactly the kind of smart posts that i would have loved giving as a mafia with a reputation of being quite solid in the game. You dont really help the town with finding mafia, but you might still be seen as a contributer.
Masons showing themselves first day was perfect but without hillis as one of them i think i would have prefered a mid day 2 claim (if wanted i can explain on the next game day). I think having one more day to kill them before they reach the endgame is kinda favorable for the mafia without losing any claim town credit. So yeah i dont see it as a clear cut town post.
Is that post your only reason to trust him or is there much more against him? Its a very long list of players youd be willing to lynch instead and i dont see how so many appear more scummish than him.
I think i wont change my vote even when it would be Ian to go against him. Im quite happy to see Aquarius leading now. Not sure if ill be online for the deadline but ill try.
Also can you give me your analysis for Ian? I feel like i was pretty much the only to doubt him and now suddenly you come up with your statement, no analysis, just his bandwagon lynch vote
Id love to hear your case against the others but there is not much time but perhaps today your analysis against Ian and for Aquarius please? Or whoever youd see as your no.1 lynch target now to derail the vote.
Can be seen in two ways:
A) Knockout is pro town and just abruptly ignored any other people's logic (Croatia in this case) and 100% believed Aquarius is mafia by bringing up how he'd play the game as mafia.
B) Knockout is mafia and by deliberately dissuading others from believing Aquarius *could be town by using the masons defence (I for one believed it) and therefore sentencing him to the gallows essentially could make everyone's perception of knockout be pro-town, which is a good way for him to hide in plain sight. (I could use the same bullshit logic and say this is the way I'd play as mafia - but I wont )
Knockout is a perfect doctor target anyway so mafia wouldn't attack him so early - its his continued presence late game should be questioned if situation B is true.
Multiple points:
You're understanding of Aquarius' post seems to be obviously right. That quoted post by Aquarius is correct and it is somewhat smart. But being correct and making smart posts doesnt make you more likely protown. In fact in the post directly above Aquarius' post I wrote:
Since they want to appear helpful they will try to make longer posts. Those will be thought out and smart.
The bolded part shows my opinion of it perfectly and explains the thought why i see it as more incriminating and not as a reason to see him pro-town. I didnt see him as 100% mafia, there was a fair chunk of luck and uncertainty involved. But when i'm seeing someone I believe to be amongst the most promising lynch targets being defended due to the very same things that made me more certain in his mafia status of course i'm gonna call it out.
Also the last sentence is a pretty good reason why i wasnt killed night 1. If you want to use being still alive now against me you should probably consider using the sammyt kill against the likes of croatia or bbl who would be good night 1 targets too if they dont want to risk a doctor save against me / the masons.
wonderfully simplistic way knockout like to look at this game, shoehorning everything I do into the "I must be mafia" bandwagon
better get this day over and done with so town realise that not wanting a mafia lynched for literally no reason doesn't necessarily = mafia
The fact Sammy was town literally proves me right as the votes/traction on Aquarius was for literally his first post and nothing else
#169: I'm getting lynched because I didn't want someone to get lynched based on their false assumption that Aquarius and Sammy both *HAD to be mafia.
I dont want to say anything about the lynchvote because that it isnt a pro-town thing to do should be obvious. Again: there were more than just nothing of an argument.
ryant wrote:
See, the problem I have with this dumb town's 420/20 logic is you're basing conclusions of the FIRST fucking day lol. I'd understand more if it was the 3rd day and mafia would really like to maintain numbers in the game at that point but its not. I just don't understand it.
Now as mafia on day 1 lol I have 3/4 options when Aquarius is getting lynched:
1) keep vote on hillis - not great since it attracts attention to you, but if you claim inactivity then you may get off scot-free -> but its risky so you probably wont do that
2) lynch no one - I did that initially, but since knockout had his 420/20 glasses on and cares for little else I do it obviously meant I'm 10000% mafia. Now as town doing that is perfectly logical since I didn't want hillis lynched and Aquarius as history shows us was lynched on the false pretence that he and Sammy were both mafia lol - and guess what? they weren't!!!
3) lynch Aquarius - most logical thing to do as mafia on the FIRST!!! day. Aquarius was in big trouble and it was a very low % play to try and save him so its honestly best to just lynch him and hope people don't label you as a bandwagoner like Ian etc...
OR DO YOU?
4) Try and put all your eggs onto someone who had 1? vote on them at the time and call out your last mafia member (BY FUCKING NAME NO LESS LOL) and try and build a last minute lynch train on df_trek lol. NOTE!!! this does not save your mafia member, Aquarius gets lynched 4 to fucking 3 and you need some vote switchers lol to save him. HOW FUCKING LIKELY IS THIS?!?!? IM NOT THE WORST PLAYER OF MAFIA OF ALL TIME LMFAO, this is why I get so fucking mad since you are lynching me off such a dumb fucking scenario
Fucking shoehorn 420/20 logic at its finest and you are all falling for it!!!
Honestly, i disregarded it quite entirely because of the post you did directly after this, because of the tone you wrote it in and the perception that the vote was a lot closer. All the random over the top caps lock parts and stuff like "I'm not the worst player of mafia of all time" really dont help.
But I also strongly disagree with the day 1 / day 3 argument. I'd be much more ready to take a stand for a fellow mafia member on day 1 especially if i'd think it is only based on the timing thing. The town is fickle and that is an argument you can well defend and there is a lot of luck involved with day 1 lynches. On day 3 the positions are way more defined already and your defend position has to make sense in combination with day 1 and you need the additional voice much more than on day 3.
That said this post definitely helped me after you flipped town to understand where my analysis went wrong.
ryant wrote:
WHO'S FUCKING MAFIA NOW KNOCKOUT???? LOL
IS IT IAN? ME? CROATIA? AQUARIUS??? KANDES? DF_TREK???
AT THIS RATE YOU'VE GONE THROUGH HALF THE TOWN LMAO
This is basically fake facts: If you ignore the random voting on day 2 I've had just four guys who topped my list of suspicions: Ian and Aquarius on day 1, Croatia and Ryant on day 2. Kandes and df trek never were even close to that level.
ryant wrote:
Not to mention how you wanted Ian lynched day 1 but all of a sudden he's safe? How so? why the sudden change in opinion - this can easily be a good way to silently change the towns opinion on a player without explaining your reasons why
Based on the votes analysis i did and posted. Or said differently: Based on a wrong understanding of the aquarius lynching as described outside of the spoiler.
ryant wrote:
Very interesting that jseadog moves his vote on me hoping to end the day with no further discussions, very suspicious for me, something to look at certainly
bbl, knockout, jseadog, marco, hillis are those who voted for me btw
We've seen for quite some time that there was no proper discussion coming up mostly since the town were too united in their search of a top target. And it looked very unlikely that it would change. Same reason why i was okay with ending the day early.
ryant wrote:
[Reply to jdog: "It's quite obvious to me he's not helping the town"]
Really? pointed out kandesbunzler's analysis for day 1 was a pipe dream, pointed out how unlikely I am mafia by showing how unlikely this situation knockout has cooked up really is, but each to your own.
I really cant understand how ready you are to ignore the valid analysis I've done on day 2, and don't you worry - I know Im not going to survive this day but I am enjoying tearing apart this town's logic piece by piece.
Croatia certainly could be mafia sure, but I don't see much of what he's done can be classed as suspicious
I disagree. You didnt help the town on day 2. All that gibberish certainly didnt help to create an atmosphere where the town can strive, the correction of kanzler was correct but it didnt really help the town (basically exactly the type of smart post, no help" kind of posts) and you didnt help finding mafia outside of repeating that i must be stupid or mafia.
By the way very atypical for knockout, cause quicklynching never helps the townies, as, as knockout already stated himself, as much discussion as possible is needed in order to learn more about people. Also, it helps the non-voters or rare-discussion-participants to hide.
Again, knockout is playing against his own principals, and while he was helpful a lot at the beginning, he's grown to more and more empty words and in comparison to his normal self very weak playing style. At this point I am quite convinced that this is intentional and he is mafia, most likely partnering up with one of the guys hiding that didn't even vote on anybody yet. Best guess bbl right now.
It certainly didnt look like there was more discussion coming on and there was no need to convince anyone of my opinion or form myself an opinion because i knew who i wanted to get lynched and that guy was going to get lynched already.
I don't understand knockout's reasoning for voting for me as I go against most of his logic in post #86 of his, if I was really mafia would I really stick my neck out on the line day 1 for Aquarius???
Another big problem I have is knockout is that theres still been no explanation why his opinion of Ian has drastically changed from post #86 of his to #166. Ian goes from one of his main mafia suspects to being safe??? And I ask why???
His explanation isn't watertight at all to illicit such a drastic change in opinion
...
All I ask is the town to actually read this: honestly feels like every post Ive made has been ignored
Words on the change on Ian are following outside of the spoiler.
I'd like to point out that there were caplocked words "BASED ON VOTING BEHAVIOUR" above that list. To get the true opinion you'd have to combine them with the other facts but looking at the context of ryant and cro made me focus on that duo instead of looking at the order of the guys behind them.
On ignoring: Well, i would not have been able to convince you that you are mafia like you would not have been able to convince me that i am mafia. It's the same reason why i often dont defend myself / ignore accusations against me and rather go on to analyze someone else / something else. I'm only doing this post because i realized that if you wouldnt be mafia then i'd have a serious interpretation problem somewhere and your posts helped me finding it.
knockout wrote: The hillis train: I think mafia members hate to be on an easy day 1 town waggon so I'd generally consider being on the hillis wagon at the point of the mason claim a bit of a town tell. Guys on that train at that point: trekbmc, Ian Butler, kanzler, jseadog, ryant. So bonus points for Ian Butler, kanzler and jseadog. I dont give trek credit because that vote remained there from right at the beginning due to his own inactivity. And i dont grant ryant bonus points because of rejumping on it right after the Aquarius train looked to grow.
Rarely seen a lot of this bullshit in these few words. At this point it may be really better to lynch knockout, because he's playing the town right now, and people seem to fall to his tricks. I will refuse to vote on ryant, as I believe he's not mafia, and also I'm not. Everybody is handing it to the mafia at this point.
I still consider being on the hillis train more of a townish thing to do - especially if you were one of the later ones to join. There was basically no argument against him. However the ryant exception was quite stupid. I'd still consider it more likely that at most 1 mafia member was on this one - but it probably shouldnt be counted as a big tell.
But that post by mine included quite some bullshit when looking at it again. I think it was this part that was totally wrong:
The Aquarius train: there was a lot of contested action until the very end so i assume being relatively early on the Aquarius train a good town tell. Guys who voted for him:
knockout, Ian Butler, marco, bbl, jseadog, df_trek (order of marcos overview)
Personally i set the deadline at marcos vote because at the point it had to be obvious to everyone that aquarius gets lynched. So sorry df_trek you dont get any town credit points for your very very late vote.
A lot of contested action? Nope, not really. And when solely looking at the votes it is nearly laughable that "i set the deadline at marcos vote" because after #95 it should have been obvious to me that Aquarius gets lynched. The false perception probably came from still standing votes of df_trek and the still existing hillis votes that made the vote counts much closer than the actual vote. So yeah we'll probably have to look a lot closer at the individual guys on this train and their arguments and bussing a fellow mafia definitely made sense considering the amount of movements in that direction.
#84: BBL votes 0 mafia Aquarius with an imo convincing reason to do so. Certainly looks townish
#85: df_trek votes 0 vote ryant for not well explained reason. (previously croatia) #86: No vote but my huge post strongly suggesting that i would vote for Aquarius (or Ian)
#89: ryant rejoins hillis wagon for the simple reason that knockout didnt want to see hillis lynched and basically downplayed his vote as much as possible. The timing is especially notable because the Aquarius train just started to pick up pace with bbl and me starting to push it stronger #91: MASON CLAIM MARCO AND HILLIS: #93: I following action on my words and voted Aquarius
#95: jseadog votes Aquarius (leaving Hillis train)
#99: ryant changes to no lynch (leaving hillis train)
#102: Ian Butler votes Aquarius (leaving hillis train)
#111: ryant votes df_trek. Explanation: so that Aquarius doesnt get lynched)
#113: kandesbunzler votes for 1 vote trekbmc. Reason: Inactivity
#117: Marco votes Aquarius 23 minutes before the deadline (previously: df_trek).
#123: df_trek votes Aquarius
Croatia14 wrote:
Also: can somebody please finally explain me why silent bandwagoning in the first round is better than just speaking about your own opinion? Also: you guys still ignoring obvious arguments? I know it's easy for the mafia but for the love of god at least pro-townies that voted for me please reconsider why you would do so...
It isnt better and might harm the town a lot more. But that doesnt meant that the members doing so are not doing so in good faith. In fact I'd expect mafia members to more likely realize that the hillis train has no arguments on their side and thus be much more hesitating to be caught on that train due to all the "bandwaggoning" calls we repeatedly get. Just like asking "Why is someone on the train?", the question "Why is someone not on the train?" is interesting too.
I'm going to lynch trekbmc for now and please don't say I'm jumping on a bandwagon I've been asking for his attendance for quite some time now.
Also, I see that Ian voted for me because I voted to get rid of ryant. I'm not sure why I would need to do that because it was quite obvious ryant was going to be eliminated anyway even if I hadn't changed my vote.
Ian is talking about an absence coming up and I'm not claiming he is mafia but it surely shouldn't excuse him from being a topic of discussion.
I'll have more updates coming soon regarding the activity so far
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
knockout wrote:
Ian Butler, what would you think about a trekbmc lynch today?
He's certainly very inactive. So far not very useful tool the town. but is he mafia? I think it could be a big lynch because if we don't, he might survive asvmafia using the easiest trick ever.
If he's town, though, he might waste us a day.
I have no reason to suspect him any more than the next guy and to be fairly honest, I think he's just inactive.
So a bit on the fence. But our focus should be finding mafia.
Just quickly changing my vote to lynch no one.
Reason: trekbmc has accumulated already 3 out of the 9 votes, so there's a risk of him getting 5 votes and an instant lynching if e.g. the mafia jumps on the train (if they're not on it already) and thus ending the day with a lynch I think we do not really want.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
Just quickly changing my vote to lynch no one.
Reason: trekbmc has accumulated already 3 out of the 9 votes, so there's a risk of him getting 5 votes and an instant lynching if e.g. the mafia jumps on the train (if they're not on it already) and thus ending the day with a lynch I think we do not really want.
understandable move, i agree with that...btw i didn't find considerable progresses in this first part of day 3, therefore as I stated earlier I lynch Ian Butler
Ian Butler
- I made a case for him earlier mainly due to the seeming desire to blend in
- Post #67 is another post that I dont particularly like: It's quite a long post without much new analysis and no opinions. He talks about me and basically just says that I'm a strong player but i cant see any indication whatsoever whether I'm town or mafia in his eyes. Same thing about Croatia: sums up what happened, brings one pro and one con and again concludes with stating that he knows absolutely nothing. Fulfills "long contentless posts" and "not fingerpointing"
-I have to add that I've seen something i see as a slight town tell in him at some point (that i dont want to reveal unless a bigger group massively pressures me to do that because it would render said thing useless for the rest of the games here)
Verdict: Definitely still suspicious to me.
#102: Aquarius lynch vote: As I've corrected myself in #248 thanks to ryants comments it seemed obvious that Aquarius was going to get lynched at this point - especially because it was just before Croatia tried to save Aquarius. Also no explanation of his vote but just the promise of further catch-up on the next day. That catchup doesnt include any fingerpointing at all.
#130: He proclaims trekbmc confirmed protown because Aquarius votes for him before he got any votes himself - stating it would be too nerve-wrecking to do for a mafia. It was the first vote on trek and hillis had four (trekbmc, Ian Butler, kanzler, jseadog) so i think it is a big stretch to get there.
When I asked him about a possible trek lynch today he wrote #250 which i dont particularly like because the first part is something between a summary and a politician who tries to include all options and keeping himself options open. I kinda dislike that he doesnt reference to his earlier opinion but it is nothing I'd blame him for considering i made a quite strongly worded reply to #130. There is a bit of a natural development in his opinion which is good to see imo.
#131: He defends ryant without proposing any alternative
#214: That one of "Ian and Croatia is mafia" post stinks imo. But I'm sure he hasnt seen a long winded fight between two townies. Wait: Croatia vs Bikex anyone?
#225: Honestly i struggle to make sense of the ryant vote: He defended ryant, he thinks that either croatia or me is a mafia. i had two votes on me because ryant had novoted before it again, ryant had 5 votes. The deadline is close but based on his argumentation his vote should have been on me. Especially since it only needs a single switcher (plus ryant) to get me lynched instead of ryant. And had he voted that at the time of #214 there would have been enough time left to maybe convince one (unlikely but possible) other member.
#225 and #102: It might be random coincidence but i dont like how he casted his lynch vote twice once it was basically sure who was getting lynched without really participating in the discussion previously. And without adding an explanation during that day.
#237: It might be a bit of a weird logic for the ryant vote but i kinda want to accept it. (e.g. Lynching a townie there is definitely better than no lynching at that point because it looked likely that he would have been lynched the next day anyway and that would have just costed an extra night kill )
#237: The comment about me: He thinks my change of heart looks legit but in the very next sentence he talks it down again by writing i'm a good player. Again: He's playing like a politician that does not want to commit to anything.
Also from the very same post:
I vote to lynch jseadog, not because I am that more suspicious of him than others, but no-one in particular stands out to me now, and I do have one small thing I think makes jseadog a bit more suspicious to me.
It may sound stupid, and it's not much to go on, but I haven't got anything better atm. Jseadog, feel free to answer, I don't want to falsily accuse you.
Can you be more non-confrontational? I doubt it. Surely some players stand out more than others by now. If you dont have strong confidence in your mafia reads then present your stronger town reads.
Also shouldnt you be voting for either me or Croatia if you have a pretty good read that one of us is mafia?
_______
tl;dr: At this point it looks quite likely that my vote will be on Ian at the end of the day but i want to look at a couple of other players first before wanting to cast a vote. His non-confrontational play looks very questionable at least.
_______
@Ian: You said you dont want to defend yourself a lot and that is fine with me. However, I'd like you to present your thoughts about the rest of the town. Who do you see as townish right now?
df_Trek
- Basically only had two posts that are any noteworthy #70 and #85 and those give me a bit of a townish vibe.
Verdict: More likely town.
There wasnt much to go by him during day one and i had hardly any read on him day 1. A big thing I noticed by him was that i barely remembered any position he took so far and quickly forget what his post was about. I've looked at his Mafia VII posts where he was pro-town and those posts look quite similar to his day 1 and day 2 this time - perhaps a bit more spammy then compared to now- which i want to rate as a slight protown indicator.
#121: Defends ryant. Looks legit to me.
(His lynchvote on Aquarius changes absolutely nothing imo)
- Lots of posts that i dont really have anything to comment about but that give me town vibes.
- both his Croatia and knockout votes seem honest and make sense in his overall arc
#239 looks good.
BBL:
#32: Fine but i would have prefered seeing alternative plans suggested if you dont want to see random lynching.
#60 & #84: I like the posts.
Verdict: Definitely not a lynch target today, one of the most townish looking players so far.
- Was the one to start the Aquarius waggon although at a time where it looked "pretty dang unlikely" (as he says himself) to be succesful since hillis had a clear majority which in combination with the fact that he could have easily withdrawn his accusation if sammy would have been night1killed probably should not exonerate him as strongly as one might think.
(pretty much a long silence in between)
- #243 to #247: I like his development between these two posts in his opinion about me. Looks quite natural imo.
Verdict: Maybe not quite as convinced as on day 1 but still quite a bit more likely to be town.
I want to point out again that you should check if these make sense even if you might think I'm pro town right now. Please point things out that dont so that i can adjust my thoughts if necessary!
Might look a bit spammy to make one post per participant but it takes much more time to do each with more discussion available & i wouldnt have been able to post it today and it hopefully encourages more discussion because people might not only focus on understanding my top target.
knockout wrote:
tl;dr: At this point it looks quite likely that my vote will be on Ian at the end of the day but i want to look at a couple of other players first before wanting to cast a vote. His non-confrontational play looks very questionable at least.
_______
@Ian: You said you dont want to defend yourself a lot and that is fine with me. However, I'd like you to present your thoughts about the rest of the town. Who do you see as townish right now?
I'm afraid that's just my personality. I'm not a confrontational guy and it's just not in my nature to play/act that way.
If that's what's going to get me lynched, it'll be a sad day for me AND the town.
I have internet at the hotel here (so for at least 4 days). I'll try to log in later today and make some statements about the town. Especially since I'm in danger of being lynched, and you'll want to hear the last words of an innocent man
I'm trying to give (and get) an overview about the remaining players.
Short warning: Right now (before beginning) I doubt I will come to a clear suspect, because at the moment I'm not sure about nearly anyone. So I will include some circle-logic to get more clear about how would the player play (in my understanding) if he was mafia and what risks would he have to take.
For my conclusions I will presume that the mafia players tend to minimize their risk. Feel free to do otherwise for your conclusions.
Note: I order the players alphabetically, but not in the chronological order I wrote all this.
bbl
Spoiler
I don't remember him being very active at least the last two days (except that one long post) or very helpful, as e.g. his knockout argument is an interesting thought (as stated earlier) but not really helpful until we lynch knockout to find out which of the two (otherwise indistinguishable) options is true. I think bbl has hid himself from the spotlight until now by not really pointing at anyone who wasn't already suspicious before. I'm eager to hear his theory about what went on until now (which he announced yesterday). Risk taken (if playing mafia): Not much until now, for he flew a bit under the radar. Conclusion: Could well turn out to be mafia.
croatia
Spoiler
A big suspect in day 2 (especially for me), I think at the moment that he is pro-town. By furiously defending ryant while he was number two on the list himself I think croatia wouldn't have won anything for the mafia, instead he could have let ryant go without turning too much attention to himself, for he would have known that ryant turns out innocent, thus probably clearing his name too.
But on the other hand he could have defended ryant because it was obvious that he would be lynched (especially after his rants), so croatia could link himself to ryant (and his alignment) with only a slight risk. Risk taken (if playing mafia): I think medium in day 2, for it was well possible that the ryant train changed to himself. Conclusion:I tend to declare him pro-town at the moment.
df_trek
Spoiler
It's similar to my problems with judging ian (see below), df_trek just slips through my attention again and again. So there's mostly the same arguments. Therefore look at my thoughts on ian for further details. Risk taken (if playing mafia): Rather low. Conclusion: Could well be mafia, though I think that he's not mafia with ian (especially for their posts from day 3). But I find it hard to judge, so I would appreciate some more conclusive posts from him.
hillis
Spoiler
I think the only one we agree on being town for his and marco's mason claim.
As I uttered earlier in the day he might have been a suspect if both masons survived until now. But if he really is mafia, marco must have been too, why it would have been a very risky (but brilliant) move to kill the other remaining mafia player to get hillis off all suspicion, at least until trekbmc gets active (for in this case he must be the second mason). Risk taken (if playing mafia): massive. Conclusion: Innocent.
ian
Spoiler
I honestly find it hard to judge ian, for I remember he posted quite some posts (including some longer ones), but I can't remember what they were about or who he was pointing at. I know I could reread (and will probably do), but that's not my point. I have the feeling that his posts don't contribute much to the discussion. He said himself that he has a non-confrontational personality (which could well be, as I don't know him), but he's again one of those players who seem to hide by saying nothing that could fell back at them. I remember some people voting for him at one point or the other, but nothing being really dangerous for him. Risk taken (if playing mafia): Rather low. Conclusion: Could well be mafia. But as stated above, I find it hard to judge ian.
jseadog
Spoiler
After the quarrels we had at day 1, I tended to see him as pro-town. But it seems to me he has put himself a bit to the background and goes on mostly unnoticed (though ian votes for him at the moment). This is especially interesting as he demanded that someone else than knockout should lead the discussion (#231) without contributing much new himself. Similar to bbl I would like to hear some kind of theory from jseadog, because otherwise it could seem like he is hiding from the spotlight. Risk taken (if playing mafia): As I remember he took not much risks until now. Conclusion: Could well be mafia, but I tend to see him as pro-town (which is mostly a gut-feeling though). Would like to hear more from him on what he thinks is going on.
knockout
Spoiler
knockout seems by far to be the most active player for his very long and detailed posts. Seems to analyze the things that happen in the town more than most others, resulting in him questioning others and pointing at others with great regularity. Thus he was a target for several others like every single day (though he was never at a great risk of being lynched). So if he's mafia, he puts a target at himself regularly while investing a lot (especially of time) in the game and giving us detailed and (for the quotes used) verifiable analyzes of the ongoing, thus making himself open to attack even more. Risk taken (if playing mafia): Medium to high, though as I understood he's always playing this game this style. Conclusion: I think of him as pro-town, though there's still a risk of a huge bluff.
trekbmc
Spoiler
Nothing heard from him until now, so there's not much to judge upon. I assume (for reasoning) he's inactive for a resaon, because we can't conclude anything from the alternative. If he is town, we have no hint for that from his inactivity, so it won't help him (or the town) in any way. If he is mafia, he just hides away, hoping that he survives day 1 in this way and that there are other, more rewarding suspects afterwards, so the town doesn't gets after him for no special reason. Risk taken (if playing mafia): I think low in day 1 (for the hillis train quickly followed by the Aquarius train didn't left much room to go after him, otherwise there would have been no need to stay inactive, for no one would have seen this as a peculiar strategy), no risk in day 2 (for the ryant and croatia suspicions), and medium in day 3 (for he gets targeted now for the first time). But we should keep in mind that, though he's been inactive all the time, he could turn active any moment and e.g. cast a crucial vote in late game to turn everything in favour of the mafia. Conclusion: If he's inactive deliberately, clearly a mafia suspect. But we just don't know his reasons.
knockout wrote:
Might look a bit spammy to make one post per participant but it takes much more time to do each with more discussion available & i wouldnt have been able to post it today and it hopefully encourages more discussion because people might not only focus on understanding my top target.
That's exactly what we need!
To your verdict on bbl: I still tend to factor that he did no major contribution really so far. While you have a point on his quite natural posts, he at the same time quite often looked like writing some lab posts he could've copied. Still quite suspicious imo.
To your verdict on df_trek: Quite clear townie anyway, was the only guy that defended ryant alongside me. Could've just been smart play (as it was quite clear on who was going to be lynched and the other real option was also pro-town), could've also been honest though. His style of posts almost ensures him as pro-town imo though.
To your verdict on Ian: While I kind of like him jumping opinions and presenting himself quite aggressively, I back up the flaws you found on him. I disagree however, he never strongly raised the voice for ryant imo, at least that's how I interprete him. Especially in the time when ryant was more likely to be lynched.
What I absolutely disliked and puts him in my top 2 lynch options is his posts of non-lynching and then doing the "I don't wanna hide from responsibility", where that was exactly what he did earlier. For me he's very suspicioius.
Spoiler
I'm having voluntary work of 18 hours a day until the 14th of April - I'll try to stay as active as possible.
