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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-03-2019 23:11
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Very strange night. At first, I was convinced that I had it all figured out since Aquarius had been nabbed. But of course, Sammy being killed makes it so that the first posts really must have been a coincidence after all. Regardless, Aquarius's defenses gave him away, an we were right.
What I don't understand is the mafia killing Sammy. Surely after Aquarius was found, factions of the town, myself included, would have been after him next due the circumstances. It would have been a potential free townie lynch. Instead, they took him out, forfeiting a scapegoat and putting themselves at greater risk. I'm still trying to figure out why. It can't just be negligence.
Right now, ryant's looking really bad after his inexplicable actions. Sure, one would hope that a mafia member wouldn't be so blatant as to give themselves away. But as the saying goes, if it looks like a duck and talks like a duck, it's usually a duck. At the very least, it would make no sense for him to frame himself in that way if he wasn't mafia. I'll hold off lynching for now, but he's gotta be the prime suspect.
Final thought - the questionable Sammy kill has got me thinking, who would I have killed instead? Probably knockout, since he's been the de facto leader and it would send the town into a tailspin without a leader or any potential lead on the mafia. Plus, it would be so obvious that it wouldn't link to anybody specifically, and we'd still be on Sammy/ryant. Of course, knockout is safe from a kill if he's mafia. Certainly they could just be playing a longer strategy, and I don't believe he is mafia, but it's something to keep in mind.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 30-03-2019 00:33
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Marcovdw wrote:
Marcovdw wrote:
Lynch Aquarius and if he turns out to be mafia, ryant gets my vote tomorrow.
I'm a man of my word. Ryant appeared to wat Aquarius alive at all cost, which is obviously a sign of him being mafia.
Lynch ryant
I second this:
Lynch ryant
df_Trek wrote:
ryant wrote:
Fuck it I'm lynching df_trek rather he would get lynched over Aquarius and I believe if its 3 vs 3 then hillis would get lynched in the tie break? (Which obviously I don't want to happen and voting no one doesn't help Aquarius either)
Croatia I want you to vote on df_trek!!!
I still think ryant is pro town, but I want hear more why was so fervent, and why Croatia and not Ian, Hillis or someone else had to lynch me
Well, if you read my post with the lynch, i guess you can draw your own conclusions as to why. Or are you trying to get me dragged into another mafia accousation?
hillis91 wrote:
I have a feeling, that the lynch vote on me (And yes, Trek and Ian both spelled my name wrong), is soley based on the fact that im the town playboy  .
And that they all is mad that im sticking their wife while they is out in the field working during the day.
ryant however, managed to spell my name right AND he posted it several times. Which i find very suspicious!
Also, im a fan of getting to the lynching quick. It's a numbers game, and we need to start early.
So in this new tradition we have started this time around. I'll cast a vote for somebody who has yet posted:
Lynch df_trek
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 30-03-2019 00:53
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I said ian and hillis just because two first names i got in mind, as far as i know you are one of two proven townies
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-03-2019 06:11
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Directeur Sportif
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Will go to sleep now, But won't leave without stating that I believe ryant is pro-town. I don't think he would be gone on a rampage on saving Aquarius at that stage, especially pointing me towards lynching df_trek instead.
On the other side df_trek, by heavily speaking in favor of ryant, makes him a little bit over-the-top in my opinion and is in my Top3 Mafia behavorants right now.
On my phone so I still can't state the exact reasoning of my swing to Ian_butler without quoting his imo very suspicious post close to the deadline. Will brag on that when I wake up again.
Atm I stay with lynch jseadog
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-03-2019 06:13
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Oh btw: Sammys lynch was quite obvious imo - there has been this kind of beef between him and Aquarius at the beginning right? I can't recall who, But I remember stating them as both opposite sides iirc
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 30-03-2019 08:23
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"Heavily speaking"?? My post #140 said right the opposite, I started the day with same idea of day one because Sammy kill isn't somehow linked to ryant situation in my eyes, so there was no reason to think the opposite. But now with already two lynch and many suspects in the city I need more to be sure, and I want to understand his latest posts.
How have I to call your defence on Aquarius instead?
You are arguably charging me of something you made before, but you were defending a mafia member without highlighting, and that's a typical behaviour I'm expecting from an associate. So I'm starting this day with Lynch Croatia
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-03-2019 10:43
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@df_trek:
1. Your previous posts stated clearly that you think he is pro-town.
2. I'm calling you out for something very different. I'm calling you out because you are defending someone vacant from the beginning that I think is pro town - despite accusing you. Btw, That I think that you may be suspicious is something I've stated before.
3. Lynching me seems to be objectively inherently stupid. Remember I was the guy that clearly defended Hillis before the mason stuff that saved him. I wouldn't have had any reason to do that, as I could've just smiled and waved and see him dying. Thus accusing me makes you even more suspicious I guess.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 17:42
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 30-03-2019 11:17
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So if I think he is town I have to let him be lynched because pointing me?
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 30-03-2019 11:20
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Btw after later conclusions I need more by him I never said he is 100% pro town but that I think he is...not really an heavily speaking
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-03-2019 16:57
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Grand Tour Champion
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First up a my thoughts about the nightkill. I usually dont like to analyze night kills too much but this one looks interesting.
Sammyt looked like he could be a rather easy misslynch candidate. The timing gate could have easily lead to a lot of paranoia after Aquarius flipped mafia and the mafia could have started pushing for his lynch themself or waited until someone else does as surely someone would have done. And while i probably wouldnt have pushed for it myself i would have been curious and likely would not have disagreed too much with a lynch eventhough i originally had him picked as "more likely to be town".
A few speculations about possible reasons for sammyts kill:
1. Despite the timing of his first post he was seen as townish by quite a few guys and the timing was mostly seen as a random occurance. A few quotes from some players regarding the issue / sammyt:
#110 ryant: "Aquarius and Sammyt's posts seem to be a coincidence to me" & #62 "organic fiasco"
#86 knockout: "random occurance" & Sammyt is "More likely to be town for now"
#73 kanzler: i tend to trust sammy for the moment
#62 croatia: "first feeling of trust for Sammy"
#41 marco: "Could just be sheer coincidence though, kandesbunzler26 is a normal target"
of course also:
#98 bbl: "that vote was based on seeing them as a package
#95 jseadog: "I think sammy and Aquarius are my top 2 targets to be mafia"
(surely there are a couple of more posts about the topic but those are the ones i found on skimming the thread for it)
Of course that might have changed after the Aquarius flip but based on the first day posts I can see why the mafia might not have been as positive that sammyt is an easy lynch on this day.
2. They could believe that sammyt is the doctor:
#88
If I help find a mafia member to lynch then that's the ideal goal, but even if I get night killed before that happens at least I know they killed a townie that night and not the doctor who is more powerful and should be more helpful than I can be due to his role.
This quote could have been the reason why he was picked tonight. Sammyt basically wasnt pressured and still decided to call out loud that he isnt the doctor. The doctor doesnt want to get recognized as doctor and has the highest incentive to announce that he isnt the doctor. Most other townies might prefer to not say that because they want to keep the doctor alive and prefer to be nightkilled themselves over having the doctor nightkilled.
And there is more:
#82
The doctor is forced into saving one or the other, then up to mafia to try and guess which one isn't protected or to try and find the doctor instead.
More posts of sammyt talking about the doctor and something that looks like he could be playing mindgames. I believe he might be 100% right with his assessment of what the mafia would do.
(3. There is a benefit of nightkilling the doctor over attempting to lynch him)
While it may be questionable if it makes sense for a doctor to claim his role, he might do so if he thinks he can stop his own lynching.
If they are quite confident that they got the doctor nightkilled tonight then that also opens the door for a fake claim as doctor. Imagine someone comes out day 2 "I am the doctor. I will protect myself every night from now on" and stays unopposed after only one townie is dead. It would be a risk but there is a decent chance to be believed.
If I'm right: What does that mean for the town now? Well, first of all: it doesnt matter who was on the suspicious list of sammy because he was killed for other reasons. We should not base any of our day 2 action based on thoughts from Sammys posts.
tl;dr: I think they went doctor hunting tonight. We should disregard Sammys positions and rather base our next actions on the behaviour of Aquarius and the living population of this town.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-03-2019 22:41
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Croatia14 wrote:
Also I think Ian Butler is Mafia right now, but we dont have enough votes for that it seems. His posts look strange to me. Again he's trying to lynch on the bandwagon again. I'd be comfortable with lynching one of df_trek, ryant, Ian Butler, jseadog, bbl, (sammyt). Others I think should survive at least tonight.
I'd still like a detailed explanation on this one. Why would you be comfortable with all those names? what is it about Ian Butler that he is clearly pro town? why were you comfortable with ryant but believe he is protown now? How sure are you about each read? Did those opinions change?
You shout out your opinions quite loudly but you rarely give any reasonings...
@everyone else: I'd still like to see your thoughts about what happened yesterday and what do you think about the other people?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 31-03-2019 09:13
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Croatia14 wrote:
On my phone so I still can't state the exact reasoning of my swing to Ian_butler without quoting his imo very suspicious post close to the deadline. Will brag on that when I wake up again.
Yes, eager to hear it.
To be honest, I didn't know Aquarius was mafia. It was a gamble, of course.
But, if you go look at the standings / countings of votes (though I don't know which ones are correct anymore and which aren't...), my vote to lynch Aquarius was actually the one (or close to) who put him at most votes instead of a tie.
So I hardly see how contributing to the lynch of mafia makes me suspicious of being mafia. If I were mafia, wouldn't I use my vote to swing the favor into someone else's, so that Aquarius doesn't get lynched? |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 10:05
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knockout wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
Also I think Ian Butler is Mafia right now, but we dont have enough votes for that it seems. His posts look strange to me. Again he's trying to lynch on the bandwagon again. I'd be comfortable with lynching one of df_trek, ryant, Ian Butler, jseadog, bbl, (sammyt). Others I think should survive at least tonight.
I'd still like a detailed explanation on this one. Why would you be comfortable with all those names? what is it about Ian Butler that he is clearly pro town? why were you comfortable with ryant but believe he is protown now? How sure are you about each read? Did those opinions change?
You shout out your opinions quite loudly but you rarely give any reasonings...
@everyone else: I'd still like to see your thoughts about what happened yesterday and what do you think about the other people?
You wont get in-depth explanations in a manner that many do here as I won't invest as much time as others do right now and as long as I only play from the phone- it's a pain in the ass to write posts with multiple quotes in few time from the phone as you may know. The list, as stated before, was about gut-feelings. In comparison to many others I gave a full list of people that I figured out to be more suspicious and people. And these sometimes fail (defending Aquarius), sometimes are vital ("rescuing hillis" . What the other townies make out of these is up to you. E.g. I'm not too sure on anybody. Both Ian Butler (mafia imo and not pro-town as stated in the quote) and ryant turned my believes in the hot zone of day 1 with accusations and defenses. Its all leaning lightly or heavily on one side or another based on reading every post 1 to max 3 times.
I think you should be happy that I shout my opinions out because you can read from the reactions or even non-reactions to that.
I remember the statement that ryant did what made me believe quite surely that he is pro town: he pushed me very much directly forward towards voting to df_trek in the hot zone. Never would've any mafia player pushed that expressivelt for a lynch in that situation pointing towards another player imo, as those clear statements are rare from the mafia.
From Ian it was mainly quick bandwagoning and jumping the gun in few time, but I have to reread it more indepth if I want to state correctly why my gut-feelings leaned to the mafia-side the most with Ian.
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 31-03-2019 10:19
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Tour de France Champion
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I really don't understand all this "bandwagon" BS.
Do you want all of us to vote on different people? Everyone a unique vote for a unique person?
Lynching is a group activity. After reading people's explanations for their lynching, I got on board with the vote on Aquarius most. Seeing as it was a tie, or very close, I decided my vote could swing it in Aquarius' favor and I went for it.
Sorry for not having a unique and new reason to vote. We can't all reinvent the wheel. |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 11:14
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I tried a short overview about day 1, especially concerning Aquarius. This is what I found:
The following people were targeting Aquarius (in chronologial order, votes in bold):
- ryant: #39 (reaction to #37);
- kandesbunzler: #57 (reaction to post #28); #73; #77;
- bbl: #60; #84; #118;
- knockout: #86; #93; #107;
- jseadog: #95;
- ian: #102;
- marco: #112; #117;
- df-trek: #123;
The following people were targeted by Aquarius:
- kandesbunzler: #28;
- ryant: #37;
- trekbmc: #79;
While researching the old posts I found another interesting point I think we all missed: Aquarius contradicted his own idea of the masons coming out after he got a first vote:
Aquarius97 wrote (#87):
Are Masons really that important? I mean, with your "idea" mafia loses the terrorist in exchange for two townies at the very start of game. From 10/3 to 8/2 ratio and with two powerless mafia roles. I'd dare to say that it wouldn't be the smartest move by mafia...
I think this makes the whole "Aquarius made masons come out"-argument useless, despite I for example fell for it. Another hint at croatia who brought it up?
Plus: ryant was defending Aquarius quite furiously after him getting in danger with 3 or 4 votes (not sure about the exact number for I don't recall who changed his vote again), also based on Aquarius' "suggestion":
ryant wrote (#110):
I moved my vote from hillis to no one since I'm really uncomfortable with lynching Aquarius or Ian Butler since I think:
A) Aquarius and Sammyt's posts seem to be a coincidence to me and I cant really tell the suspicions on Aquarius is due to much else - I also agreed with his reasoning that the masons should come out early.
ryant wrote (#111):
Fuck it I'm lynching df_trek rather he would get lynched over Aquarius and I believe if its 3 vs 3 then hillis would get lynched in the tie break? (Which obviously I don't want to happen and voting no one doesn't help Aquarius either)
Croatia I want you to vote on df_trek!!!
Regarding this last post, the common defending of the now confirmed mafia member Aquarius when he got in danger and doing this with the same argument that was obsolete by Aquarius' own reasoning (despite us missing it) I clearly would go with both ryant and croatia being mafia.
To put pressure on both ryant and croatia I'll give my vote to croatia, therefore lynch croatia.
So if I counted right, at the moment the vote count is:
- ryant 2
- croatia 2
- jseadog 1 |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 12:11
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Ian Butler wrote:
Quick post because no time now, but wanted to log in before deadline after a quick read-up of the situation to change my vote to: lynch Aquarius.
Complete catch-up tomorrow!
I re-checked. This one made me believe that Ian was mafia, because I a) thought Aquarius was pro-town at this point and b) that smelled fishy to me as it seemed to me like just postponing and change reasoning according to the outcome of the lynch.
I have to admit, as Aquarius turned out to be mafia this takes pressure off Ian. Good that I've now rechecked my reasoning 
ryant wrote:
Fuck it I'm lynching df_trek rather he would get lynched over Aquarius and I believe if its 3 vs 3 then hillis would get lynched in the tie break? (Which obviously I don't want to happen and voting no one doesn't help Aquarius either)
Croatia I want you to vote on df_trek!!!
I could have kept my vote on knockout but then his lobbying power is too strong and wouldnt gain traction. I mean if I vote against him then that is a black mark against me and so I decided to lynch no one in the end.
These two parts were posts by ryant I was referring to, when he offered "brave" statements against main-stream opinion under time pressure. Also the full expression of posts #110 and #111 seemed a little bit too straightforward for a mafia-guy, thus changed my mind on him.
I clearly would go with both ryant and croatia being mafia.
You didn't read my posts did you? Are you ignoring previous action on Day 1 intentionally or unintentionally? Also I'd like something more valid than this made-up argument, which is the only one you've stated so far iirc.
I think this makes the whole "Aquarius made masons come out"-argument useless, despite I for example fell for it. Another hint at croatia who brought it up?
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 15:19
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Croatia14 wrote:
You didn't read my posts did you? Are you ignoring previous action on Day 1 intentionally or unintentionally? Also I'd like something more valid than this made-up argument, which is the only one you've stated so far iirc.
I just read once again every post you wrote until now and found but one thing I may have "ignored". I'm not saying which one exactly, because I would love to know from you what I could have missed in your opinion. Give me a hint and I may reconsider.
What I found was that you were shooting mostly at Ian (which you seem to stop if I get your last post right) and knockout (mainly after his first vote on you early in day 1).
You wanted some valid points apart from the "made-up argument" (which one exactly?), so I go back to my earlier analysis of the Aquarius-related actions. There were only some people who didn't suspect Aquarius at some time:
- trekbmc (who was and still is inactive and therefore can't be judged)
- sammy (who was killed by the mafia)
- hillis (who is clearly pro-town)
- croatia
(- ryant, if you are willing to consider his "fighting" with Aquarius at the very beginning of day 1 as a small banter to start the whole thing or even a red herring without much risk).
Of course some from the later votes could have been used to deceive us, but on the other side there was at least one promising alternative (df_trek as far as I remember) to go for while saving Aquarius. Therefore I am willing to ignore this possible move right now.
Following the idea that killing sammy is either totally logical (as you stated) or doesn't give us much information (as for example knockout argued) I don't see much alternatives to justify my arguing on the people's behaviour in day 1 and 2. As stated before (and backed up now) I see two main suspects, which are ryant and you. My vote for you (instead of ryant) is mainly a numbers game following this conclusions to put pressure on the one of you two that has less votes, which was you.
I hope I could clarify my considerations to all of you. |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 16:07
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Alright so I went through and did some more reading to catch up on posts. I can't help but notice how sammyt and Croatia were both so similar in their arguments against me. I really think that sammy was very confident that he would not get lynched after Day 1 and could continue trying to bring attention to me. Croatia on the other hand was joining him in trying to bring attention to me and now that sammy is gone Croatia can continue where sammy left off.
This would mean the 3rd mafia member is likely sitting on an opposite side of the room. Hanging low and not trying to fit in with them. However the same argument could be made that I am that person. It's likely not going to help me either way. It's all interesting to me nevertheless.
I mentioned in Day 1 that Croatia was a target for me so it should not come as a huge surprise that I am lynching Croatia14, sammy was another target I had but that situation took care of itself even if it was the wrong one in the end.
I'm looking at other users like bball, df_trek, and now kandes again and I simply can't get a mafia vibe from them right now. We already essentially know that Marco & hillis are safe and I still think knockout can be trusted also. That does not leave many people to target in my mind.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 16:12
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I understand your point, but I disagree.
What I found was that you were shooting mostly at Ian (which you seem to stop if I get your last post right) and knockout (mainly after his first vote on you early in day 1).
Indeed I did believe that Ian was very suspicious. Reconsidering all issues I thought about - as shown in my last post - leaves me remaining skeptical, but not as strong as before. Also, I do believe that knockout may very well be a mafia member sacrificing Aquarius. I recognized his positive contribution shrinked down a little when it came to the wire. While that may or may not have been a coincidence, I also tend to believe that he'd be somebody that could frame this situation in beforehand. Also I agree on the fact that he could've been a great lynching target for the mafia at night (if he's not mafia himself) for showing the willingness of organizing, so if he's a townie he'd be highly in danger of being lynched next night anyway [e.g. bbl's post I found after writing this]. Also I didn't like at all that he brought up the case of the doctor-theory, as responses would've only helped the mafia right here imo. While he may be a mafia member, I hope he is not for the sake of the organisation, but I consider him as one of my best bets being mafia right now. Still I'd give him another day & night due to stated reasons.
Also: I don't like the fact that quite some people did not hint towards any idea of who they'd think of lynching for this round. As kandesbunzler stated: Pressuring may help. If he'd only pressure the right suspects...
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-03-2019 16:16
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@jseadog: but you realized that sammy is pro-town right? because then your argumentation doesn't make any sense anymore...
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