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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 24-03-2019 17:27
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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knockout wrote:
Marcovdw wrote:
sammy and Aquarius are clearly coordinating. Maybe even the coordinated mafia! 
@Marco: i know it was a sarcastic reply but I would like to hear from you whether you think this raises or reduces the chance that both of them are together in the mafia (compared to a random pair of two other participants)
I was indeed being sarcastic. But there might actually be some theory behind it. The maffia discussing in their secret back room plotting they want to kill someone, so they agree on a name and start writing their post. Accidentally they press reply at the exact same time.
Could just be sheer coincidence though, kandesbunzler26 is a normal target to start due to him being a largely unknown factor. Though I think he's proven himself to be off the hook for now.
I'll go to someone else who hasn't spoken yet. Lynch df_trek. Wondering what he has to say about his mysterious absence so far.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 24-03-2019 20:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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I have a feeling, that the lynch vote on me (And yes, Trek and Ian both spelled my name wrong), is soley based on the fact that im the town playboy  .
And that they all is mad that im sticking their wife while they is out in the field working during the day.
ryant however, managed to spell my name right AND he posted it several times. Which i find very suspicious!
Also, im a fan of getting to the lynching quick. It's a numbers game, and we need to start early.
So in this new tradition we have started this time around. I'll cast a vote for somebody who has yet posted:
Lynch df_trek
Edited by hillis91 on 24-03-2019 21:10
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 24-03-2019 21:06
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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Sorry for my late presence (O.T. - I was out the weekend for thermal cares in Champoluc, that seems to have health benefits, but not reputation benefits in the city  ), btw I don't blame Marcovdw for this, but I rebound it to someone else hasn't spoken yet. So Lynch Croatia14
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 24-03-2019 21:07
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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just realized got 2 lynches 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 24-03-2019 22:28
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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A reminder that editing posts is not allowed 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 24-03-2019 23:11
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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Yeah guys, come on!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 00:27
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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I guess lynching someone who hasn't spoken makes as much sense as anything could this early in the game, at least until everyone speaks within the window.
Lynch Croatia14
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 00:32
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Hey guys!
I'm here! Since I was one the main guys involved in the whole thing knockout was talking about, I agree with him. I see I already have a vote simply because I did not post yet. I have not been online yet but I am online now. It's silly to put my name down being a very active member of PCM.Daily which means you can rely on me to be active and help the advancement of the game.
With no detective, which I have been before, it is going to be very hard to make conclusions so we need the strongest players we have to be alive and help the town. Don't make the same mistake you did last time and eliminate me for no reason...
We are early enough in the day where many things can take shape but for now I am going to Lynch kandesbunzler26 as I agree that I have not played with him and would like to see how active he is and how much he argues against everything.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 02:08
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Wait we started already?
I would Lynch knockout, he would never kill me for no reasons in the first round if he doesn't want me out of his way.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 02:13
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Also, while his guidelines are useful they don't say anything about his identity. A smart move to start the game for a mafia guy that wants some patronage.
Also as I'm too waisted to find it: when does the first day end?
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 02:14
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Oh, I see I failed the highlightinglynch knockout
Good night my friends
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:50
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-03-2019 07:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
Wait we started already?
I would Lynch knockout, he would never kill me for no reasons in the first round if he doesn't want me out of his way.
Okay, first of all: Did i really try to kill you? I voted to lynch you because you hadnt posted yet as i stated i would do in the first post to encourage activity right from the start. Its still 3.5 days till the end of the day and votes will change a lot. Why i voted for you instead of someone else who hadnt posted yet? I simply went down the players list in #24 and started with trek and once he had posted i went to the next one who was you. No reason to feel attacked personally. I will change the vote until the end of the day to someone who gave me a bit of doubt about his allignment.
[quote] Croatia14 wrote:
Also, while his guidelines are useful they don't say anything about his identity. A smart move to start the game for a mafia guy that wants some patronage.
Also as I'm too waisted to find it: when does the first day end?
If you want to read it: I am protown. But why do you want to read that? A normal townie would say that, a doctor would say that (no reason to claim doctor at all at this point), masons could claim their own role (but in past games never did that this early), mafia members would say that. You know as well as i do, that talking about the own identity this early might not be worth anything and might look more suspicious than anything else.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-03-2019 11:35
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Okay everyone started to post so its theory time:
When Ian was a mafia member with me, we were a well organised team and discussed pretty much all our positions outside of simple one-liners like above.
I think it is possible that he wanted to wait for the other mafia members to enter their chat and discuss their first steps but wanted to make his first post already in case others joined my example and lynchvote members yet to post.
Ian Butler wrote:
First kill is basically a gamble. But no lynching the first day makes less sense from a strategical standpoint, so someone has to bite the bullet.
Since there are still a few days left to change the vote, I'll go with a provisional one. I like trekbmc's idea to go with someone who hasn't posted yet. Let's hear from them
Lynch Hills
I dont really like this post either. Its nothing that looks a lot different from most other posts in this thread but imo it looks a tiny bit too similar to especially treks one:
[spoiler]
trekbmc wrote:
I'm at a loss of who to vote for now though, so I'm going to cast a vote on somebody who hasn't posted yet purely to ellicit a response. So given we started at the bottom, on that (rather unfounded) basis, I'll vote to Lynch Hills, but expect that to change. /spoiler]
It looks like when i copied the homework of a friend. He wrote exactly the same things but with other words - even down to copying the spelling mistake in Hillis name. I dont think that he intended to do this but it could have happened unconsciously while trying to fit into the general town behaviour right now.
Its not a lot but it fits into what i could see Ian to do if he were mafia again. Especially after he was quite succesful with his staying under the radar tactic of posting similar things to others without giving new thoughts to the town.
Lynch Ian Butler
I would be especially curious to read BBLs thoughts on this as he was part of the mafia back then too.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 25-03-2019 16:26
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
PCM$: 400.00
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Of course my post resembled that of trek. It's day one, nobody has died yet, no information to go on, only the law of chaos, the town coming together and everyone trying to yell the loudest. It's anarchy, baby 
I have no long thoughts to post now, because nothing has/had happened.
I followed trek's lynch because I wanted to vote someone who then had more than 1 vote, so that we'd certainly have a lynch at the end of the day, and not a draw.
The misspelling is an odd and funny coincidence, I wasn't aware of it  |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 25-03-2019 16:29
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
PCM$: 400.00
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I think it is possible that he wanted to wait for the other mafia members to enter their chat and discuss their first steps but wanted to make his first post already in case others joined my example and lynchvote members yet to post.
Wrong because I'm not mafia, but..
Correct that I wanted a post out there as soon as possible, because of your post about the importance of activity and the lynching of non-active members. So I just wanted to let my voice be heard quickly, to avoid being lynched.
However that argument proves nothing because I'd do that both as mafia AND as a townie. All I can offer at this point is my word. You've been in mafia with me earlier, you know me in this game a bit. You decide how you want to vote.
But I am not with the mafia. Not this time |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 25-03-2019 16:35
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
PCM$: 400.00
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And lastly, in a town filled with mafia members, it's dangerous to let yourself be lead. There can be no leaders with this much paranoia, so I don't entirely trust you, knockout, when you start "making the rules" a bit too much.
Let's be wary of that; If you are truly town, surely you will agree (of course if you are town, you're certain you are town and you'll disagree because you're the only one you trust and you'll believe you could be a strong leader, being the only free of suspicion from yourself ) |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 17:13
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1120
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Now a bit reasoning from me (so no one has to lynch me anymore to get to know me better), as far as it is possible without any actual information:
It's a little bit suspicious that sammy and Aquarius nominated me within 1 minute with basically the same argument:
sammyt93 wrote:
I guess I will open up with
Lynch Kandesbunzler26
Simple reasoning of its the very start of the game and I think you are the only one I haven't played this with before. I'm just hoping to draw out some activity to get a read on how you play the game.
Aquarius97 wrote:
The "Be Active" should be a key one. Completely agree with you in this. About the second one, shouldn't that be always like that? I mean, voting for someone just to jump in the bandwagon is often suspicious
Lynch kandesbunzler26. Why? Obviously i don't have a "gaming" reason, just that i have never played a mafia game with him, so with the rest, more or less i can know how they are used to play, so maybe this "helps" us to get to know you better
As Aquarius wrote himself, this is suspicious. That both changed their votes to different people probably makes it even more suspicious...
And to complete the mafia: jseadog joined both their first nomination and their reasoning:
jseadog1 wrote:
We are early enough in the day where many things can take shape but for now I am going to Lynch kandesbunzler26 as I agree that I have not played with him and would like to see how active he is and how much he argues against everything.
Case closed, let's start Mafia X
But to get more serious: For the same reason those three gave, I will wait with my first decision about who to lynch until I have learned a bit more about all the locals of this town. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-03-2019 22:02
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Ian Butler wrote:
And lastly, in a town filled with mafia members, it's dangerous to let yourself be lead. There can be no leaders with this much paranoia, so I don't entirely trust you, knockout, when you start "making the rules" a bit too much.
Let's be wary of that; If you are truly town, surely you will agree (of course if you are town, you're certain you are town and you'll disagree because you're the only one you trust and you'll believe you could be a strong leader, being the only free of suspicion from yourself )
Its way too early to trust anybody entirely as nobody can have accrued enough town credit to be considered a sure 100% townie yet and as long as that is the case you always have to take everything with a bit of skepticism.
I can definitely see why people see me taking initiative right from the start with doubt but i felt it was necessary for how some of the previous editions went. For example look at Mafia VII (was there a VIII somewhere?). A no lynch on day one after barely any discussion that hardly gave away any clues and im pretty sure there were a couple of users that didnt post anything back then. The entire season was just 8 pages of discussion including signups! I pushed for this rule variation without detective and longer days to get more activity from the beginning and i promised jandal that i would drive the early discussion to get that before the roles were randomized so i think i would probably have made a very similar first post even when i would be mafia.
Do i want to keep the lead (as you called it): No, ideally there would be a town with lots of strong voices discussing their view on different mafia candidates and perhaps there will be some town members cleared as pretty much safe town (e.g. masons if they claim their role relatively early for whatever reason) who would be then ideally suited as some sort of town leaders. if other players step up their activity then i would automatically get reduced to one of many voices.
And while a lot of the early votes are very random there are already a few talking points that could be discussed or potentially starting points for analysis and slightly less random votes: (short opinion by me in spoilers)
- Does it look scummy that i took the initiative so early?
Spoiler Hopefully not too much but i explained above why i thought it would help the town.
- my take on Ian Butler
Spoiler its not a strong read but to me it is the best one so far. Not that it means too much.
- two votes within one minute with similar explanation against kandesbunzler. Are sammy and aquarius mafia partners with bad communication or was just a random thing?
Spoiler I'm not sure what to think and am switching between interpretations. My initial thought was that makes it less likely that both are mafia members because i would expect better communication between the mafia but by now i think it makes them both slightly more likely to be mafia than the average player. Definitely worth revisiting later in the game once we see how the relationship between them develops.
- does bbl defending kandesbunzler mean anything? Or trek defending kandesbunzler?
Spoiler to me it makes him look slightly more townish and i agree with him, being a new player doesn't mean anything except making him look like an easier lynch target
I cant put my finger on why i dont like Trekbmcs post just as much. Perhaps it is the way he asked to remove the kandesbunzler votes, i dont really know. Nothing to act now really but especially worth revisiting when kandesbunzler flips mafia at some point.
- How does Croatias "emotional defense" look?
Spoiler to me it looks honest. I dont particularly like his response, aggresively shooting back at the person that voted for you often induces a bitter taste to me but i believe the part of being drunk (e.g. because of posting at 3am local time and struggling a bit with the forum code) and i believe that he would likely have posted earlier than last seeing how the tone in town was "lynchvote ones without a post" combined with the fact that lots of people have his skype contact and could have reached out to him if they were his partner in crime. Hence im tending protown for him
- the bandwaggons on kandesbunzler, hillis, croatia and df trek
Spoiler i havent checked if anybody jumped off some of the waggons but croatias and df treks ones look quite natural to me by being pretty much the final guys to post and the majority of the votes coming late so they are less interesting to me (votes only came due to late post, less likely to be driven by anyone)
The kandesbunzler as the first waggon and the hillis counter waggon look more interesting to me - also partly because of who is on them (mostly noted above)
I think some of those points could be quite interesting to discuss and while none of them is in itself a strong lead i would like to read as many opinions on them as possible or any other points you saw?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-03-2019 22:34
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Ian Butler wrote:
Of course my post resembled that of trek. It's day one, nobody has died yet, no information to go on, only the law of chaos, the town coming together and everyone trying to yell the loudest. It's anarchy, baby
I have no long thoughts to post now, because nothing has/had happened.
I followed trek's lynch because I wanted to vote someone who then had more than 1 vote, so that we'd certainly have a lynch at the end of the day, and not a draw.
The misspelling is an odd and funny coincidence, I wasn't aware of it
Fyi in case you missed it:
If it is a tie between two people, The person with the longest-standing final vote will be lynched, i.e. if jandal has four lynches and the fourth was at 4pm, and Kritzo has four lynches and the fourth was at 6pm, jandal is lynched. This doesn't count for a tie between a person and no lynch, in this case there is no lynch.
Follow-up question to Ian: I see your reasoning why you would have wanted to make an early post as both mafia and town. But why make such an empty nonsaying post. Everything you said in #35 could have been said in #26 too (at least if you replace treks name with mine). That hesitating is what i disliked about you and made me think of you potentially wanting to wait for mafia partners input. Can you give me a reason for that?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-03-2019 23:32
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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It's definitely an interesting scenario that Knockout brings up about Ian's behavior as a mafia member in the past, but to be honest, I'm not sure I buy that we can tell just based on that. Personally, my strategy that game was to simply play like I do as a townie. That's the least suspicious thing to do, and I'm sure it's a common strategy. Of course, it means that now, whatever I do will seem to resemble what I did as mafia in that game. That's the way it goes for everyone. So I'm willing to give Ian the benefit of the doubt on that account.
However, this specific instance does look fairly suspicious. I noticed the spelling error too, and that's certainly a bit uncanny (although maybe more so on trek's part). The opening post is also strange, but I can see it both ways. It could easily be Ian waiting for the mafia, or he could just be trying to establish discussion with little to go on, as knockout himself has promoted by supporting the inactivity lynch.
The Sammy/Aquarius posting was also extremely weird. On one hand, the timing of it makes it seem impossible for them to have planned ahead. But as was mentioned, they're saying exactly the same thing, and their reasoning was baseless unless the mafia simply wanted to get rid of an easy target on the first day. I'd also argue the timing could be a ruse in itself. Those posts could have been planned and coordinated in the mafia chat and purposely put together to avoid a bandwagoning claim. Or it could have been a miscommunication. Either way, I'm having trouble believing it was a true coincidence.
For now though, I'm keeping my vote on Croatia. Those responses were not at all convincing, basically saying "No u" to trek in response for a lynch that was given clear explanation. Blame it on the alcohol, sure. Then I want a sober response before reconsidering. My next choices would be Sammy/Aquarius.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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