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Tour of Ukraine Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 03-11-2018 08:11
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Directeur Sportif
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 Tour of Ukraine
The Tour of Ukraine celebrates it's 5th anniversary this year: part of the MG schedule since 2014, the race has seen some changes for this year's edition. Held as a PTHC event in 2017, it's now a HC stage race with only three instead of it's usual five stages. The two key stages remain though: the hilltop finish on second day, as well as the long and crucial (partly hilly, but flat rated) individual timetrial as the concluding stage on day three. A prologue will kick off the tour, coming with a climb that may suit puncheurs rather than pure prologue specialists.
Former race winners are Simone Ponzi (2017), Thomas Dekker (2016), Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (2015) and Dan Craven (2014) - though with partly different race characteristics. Still quite an illostrous list of past winners and as an HC event this year, it's definitely a key race for both PCT puncheurs and timetrial specialists.
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Punchy TT riders | HI | TT | AC | PR | Puncheurs | HI | TT | AC | PR |  Coppel | 76 | 83 | 74 | 83 |  Lutsenko | 81 | 68 | 81 | 68 |  Keizer | 71 | 81 | 73 | 81 |  Froome | 81 | 66 | 73 | 66 |  Cornu | 71 | 80 | 72 | 80 |  McCarthy | 81 | 58 | 74 | 58 |  Pluchkin | 75 | 79 | 74 | 79 |  Dowsett | 80 | 64 | 71 | 63 | | Ignatiev | 74 | 79 | 81 | 79 |  Chaves | 79 | 68 | 72 | 68 |  Koren | 74 | 78 | 66 | 78 | Pichon | 79 | 64 | 76 | 64 |  Reus | 73 | 78 | 61 | 78 | Prevar | 79 | 62 | 73 | 62 | | Martin | 71 | 78 | 72 | 77 | Palini | 78 | 66 | 74 | 66 |  Mullen | 70 | 78 | 70 | 78 |  Siskevicius | 78 | 65 | 75 | 65 |  Izagirre | 80 | 77 | 64 | 77 |  Quevedo | 78 | 65 | 75 | 65 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 74 | 77 | 75 | 77 | Vanendert | 77 | 70 | 71 | 70 | | Kung | 73 | 77 | 71 | 78 | Diggle | 77 | 70 | 70 | 70 | | Dees | 72 | 77 | 64 | 76 |  Duchesne | 77 | 68 | 79 | 68 | | Rolland | 70 | 77 | 68 | 77 |  Mehr-Wenige | 78 | 63 | 67 | 63 |  Bazhkou | 75 | 76 | 64 | 76 | Barbin | 78 | 63 | 76 | 63 | | Novak | 73 | 76 | 65 | 76 |  Bellis | 78 | 62 | 75 | 62 | | Haga | 72 | 76 | 67 | 77 | Roux | 78 | 62 | 75 | 62 | | Rajapakshage | 70 | 76 | 69 | 78 |  Dyrnes | 78 | 61 | 77 | 66 |  Kuboki | 73 | 75 | 77 | 78 | Gougeard | 77 | 67 | 68 | 67 | | Tvetcov | 75 | 74 | 73 | 75 | Pellaud | 77 | 66 | 70 | 66 | | Durasek | 75 | 74 | 59 | 74 | Villella | 77 | 61 | 80 | 61 | | Manulang | 70 | 74 | 66 | 74 | Le Gac | 77 | 60 | 69 | 60 |
The 44km timetrial definitely should be the most crucial stage here and so we first take a look at those riders, who handle both TTs and hills pretty well: Coppel as the outstanding name at the top of that list then. He should fancy his chances to win the prologue, limit the damage on the hilly stage and of course performing amongst the very best on the final TT. It's hard to see him not fighting for at least the podium here and his goal must be the win - no excuses!
Quite some big names challenging for the podium as well though: Pluchkin, Ignatiev, Koren or Reus as the next best puncheurs amongst the "punchy TT riders" - an interesting race for particularly Pluchkin, who has the pressure to deliver a great result for the local team Team Popo4Ever. And then there's Izagirre as one of the most interesting contenders: being amongst the best puncheurs (yes, his acceleration remains a huge concern) and the better TT specialists, he definitely should aim for the podium as well.
Keizer, Cornu, Martin or Mullen as other outstanding timetrialers, who may limit the losses in the hilly stage. Just like for Pluchkin, it's some pressure for Keizer as well, since he may lose some time against better puncheurs on the hilltop finish on day two..
Speaking of the hilltop finish, we have several premium puncheurs attending: Lutsenko, Froome and McCarthy as the best. Lutsenko and Froome may actually hope for a somewhat notable GC result - if they manage to gain valuable time on day two here! McCarthy amongst the worst TT riders though and he clearly needs a very special performance on the hills, if he wants to hold off tons of better timetrial riders on the final day. A stage win should be his minimum goal then.
Dowsett, Chaves, Pichon, local hero Prevar (though probably working for Pluchkin) and wildcard entry Siskevicius as other riders, who will try to benefit from a selective hilly stage. The lack of TT skills will hurt many of those names though, they definitely need to ride the hilltop finish as hard as possible!
The Stage Hunters | TT specialists | HI | TT | AC | PR | TT specialists | HI | TT | AC | PR | | Zmorka | 66 | 82 | 70 | 82 | Janse van Rensburg | 68 | 78 | 76 | 78 |  Ford | 55 | 81 | 73 | 81 | Atkins | 68 | 78 | 63 | 77 | | Sergent | 69 | 80 | 51 | 80 | Li | 61 | 78 | 75 | 78 | | Viennet | 67 | 80 | 64 | 80 | Golovash | 60 | 78 | 76 | 78 | | Schädlich | 64 | 80 | 76 | 80 | Kovalev | 56 | 78 | 75 | 78 | | Viviani | 66 | 79 | 70 | 79 | Ghyselinck | 68 | 77 | 68 | 77 | | Robert | 60 | 79 | 55 | 79 | Barth | 58 | 77 | 77 | 77 | | Tennant | 69 | 78 | 68 | 77 | Nechita | 64 | 76 | 68 | 76 |
And then those TT specialists, who probably may not be in contention for the GC on the final day: Zmorka, Sergent or Viennet still may hope for a less selective hilly stage, as they at least know how to survive such a stage in the peloton. Zmorka surely an interesting second option for Team Reddit: two possible stage hunters with Lutsenko and Zmorka, so three possible stage wins in three days!
Ford, Schädlich, Viviani, Robert and some other TT horses may struggle on the partly undulating profile of the final timetrial, but of course there's always some hope for the TT skills to come into play in such a long challenge.
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| Vien |
Posted on 03-11-2018 08:32
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Small Tour Specialist
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Took a bit of a risk here, sending both Lutsenko and Zmorka without any huge GC goals. But I hope the stages will give them enough points to make their presence worth it. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-11-2018 08:36
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Let's see what we can do in a HC race. Reus or Martin maybe have a chance to sneak a top 10.
Good luck to Žalgiris, let's represent the CT well 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2018 08:40
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Classics Specialist
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Awesome route. Coppel should be the favourite on paper, let's if he can deliver.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-11-2018 08:55
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
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And our final main rider debut of the year as Stan the Man leads his first race in Xero colours and a well-suited one. Would love a top 10 in such a big event but seems like a tough ask!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 12:44
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 03-11-2018 09:09
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Maybe a Top20 for Novak? It's his first test on a Hilly TT stage race this season, though the hilly stage looks quite hard, so that makes me think that Coppel might not win this. I think Izagirre will win this race, if the hilly stage is as selective as i think now it could be. If so, a mistake on my side to not bring Bystrom here.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 03-11-2018 09:23
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Not a good profile for Kraftwerk so any points at all will be welcome.
Thanks for the preview tsmoha
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-11-2018 09:29
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Directeur Sportif
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This is Coppel vs. Pluchkin surely. Also the race tailor-made for Swisslion, go for gold Reus & companions
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-11-2018 09:34
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Directeur Sportif
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jandal7 wrote:
And our final main rider debut of the year as Stan the Man leads his first race in Xero colours and a well-suited one. Would love a top 10 in such a big event but seems like a tough ask!
Stan the Man finally to be seen, even if it's the wrong colours  hope he can deliver in those as good as he did for us in the lime!
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 03-11-2018 10:49
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3591
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As a avid fan of TT's this is gonna be such a great race to watch. Dunno how the Froome/Ignatiev leadership will do, but I hope that it won't screw us up
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| quadsas |
Posted on 03-11-2018 16:52
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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First and only HC race of the season, dunnonwhy I didnt send Kreuziger here, but hopefully Siskevicius can do something on stage 2
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 03-11-2018 17:28
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Classics Specialist
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Really like the profile of this race, each of the 3 stages gives a different question. The first question from stage one will be one simply of who takes the stage? A prologue specialist or a puncheur or someone who has a little of both? The second stage will ask questions of the time-trialists, can you avoid losing several minutes on a tough uphill finish? The final stage then asking the same of the puncheurs, can they hold onto whatever advantage they had from stage 2?
As for the results of the race I think it will be a mix of puncheurs and hybrids at the top as I think the depth of the high end punchuers will be enough to make the end of stage two very difficult for those time-trialists and several minutes may be lost.
With that said I think Izagirre will win by 2+ minutes, I think the hills will prove too selective for the time-trialists to overcome though several of them may move back into the top 10 with results on stage three.
Edited by Kentaurus on 03-11-2018 17:37
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-11-2018 21:05
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Grand Tour Champion
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My best puncheurs and my best time trialists. Something must be possible right?
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| beagle |
Posted on 03-11-2018 21:20
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
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One of most awaited race (and win goal  ) is finally here! Honestly, I´ve expected a bit weaker start list, especially presence of Pluchkin makes me worry. While Coppel should win here, I truly believe Izagirre can fight for podium. All I need is active approach and selective stage 2.
One thing seems to be sure, I´ll be happy or very disappointed after the race. C´mon Ion!!!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-11-2018 22:02
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World Champion
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As usual if Kuboki can limit his loses on the hilly stage, I think he may have a good chance here. Should finish Top 15 on the prologue, and his hill stat should help him in the TT at the end to hopefully finish pretty high up too, atleast Im hoping. The pure TT guys with super low hill Im hoping wont do well since its listed as flat but clearly somewhat hilly.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 04-11-2018 06:45
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Some gamble here, all depends on the random TT gods.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-11-2018 08:41
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Not really sure how Cornu will go here but I'd be pretty happy if he cuts his losses on the hilly stage and manages to stay there or there about in the Prologue & TT. A Top 10 GC would be a good result. Le Gac here for the hilly stage as a potential stage hunter of sorts but not expecting much.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-11-2018 09:02
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
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Not a great start but it's a prologue so who cares
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Vien |
Posted on 04-11-2018 09:04
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Damn, those gaps are huge already. At least Zmorka got the U25 jersey I guess? |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-11-2018 09:05
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Martin just can't ride prologues it seems, which is weird 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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