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Volta a Catalunya Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 07-09-2018 08:54
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 Volta a Catalunya
The Volta a Catalunya is back! Not being held in 2017, the prestigious stage race goes into it's 11th edition this year and comes with quite an interesting mix of stages: surely the climbers will fight for the GC, but you will need timetrial skills to be amongst the overall best here. Almost 50kms of ITTs will surely make a huge difference eventually. There's also a tricky hilly stage and flat stage, that may give some sprinters a chance to shine as well. Even though the profile ain't too easy and may well favor a breakaway. The 6-days-event concludes with an interesting mountain stage, that comes with rather short climbs.
Rigoberto Úran took the last edition back in 2016, when he rode to his second Catalunya title after winning the race already back in 2010. It's been a narrow victory over Ian Bibby (27 seconds) and Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy (27 seconds) and with both mountains and timetrials being the key yet again, we may hope for another thrilling edition. With his two GC victories, Úran is the tied record-winner of the race: Alberto Contador (2015 and 2013) as the only other rider, who managed to win this race twice. Both will be at the start again this season, but we should fancy Úran's chances better than what Contador will be capable to achieve with his amateur's team. The spectators however are likely to support Contador whenever he will be visible here.
Despite being rated a C1 event, it should be still a prestigious event with such iconic names on the list of previous race-winners: Yuri Trofimov (2014), Aleksandr Pluchkin (2012), Alejandro Valverde (2011), Francisco Perez Sanchez (2009), Francisco Mancebo (2008) and Michael Boogerd (2007). Will Úran write his name on the honour roll for the third time? Or will we see a new name on the list?
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Favorites | MO | HI | TT | | Outsiders | MO | HI | TT |  Denifl | 84 | 76 | 72 | |  Penasa | 79 | 73 | 70 |  Úran | 82 | 74 | 78 | |  Brenes | 79 | 73 | 69 |  Velits | 82 | 75 | 74 | |  Panayotov | 78 | 72 | 68 |  Henao Montoya | 82 | 71 | 71 | |  Rodrigues | 78 | 73 | 67 | | Keizer | 81 | 71 | 81 | | Bennett | 78 | 76 | 65 |  Shikai | 81 | 71 | 76 | |  Ndayisenga | 78 | 75 | 65 |  Eastman | 81 | 71 | 76 | | Signorini | 78 | 69 | 65 | | Choi | 80 | 74 | 75 | |  Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 74 | 77 |  Meintjes | 80 | 77 | 71 | | Novak | 77 | 73 | 76 |  Kiserlovski | 80 | 75 | 72 | | Tvetcov | 77 | 75 | 74 |  Nazaret | 80 | 71 | 65 | | Brändle | 76 | 71 | 79 | | Valls | 79 | 75 | 72 | |  Contador | 76 | 70 | 68 |
Úran certainly has a good chance to repeat his victory from 2016 and make himself the sole record winner of the race. His combination of climbing mountains, hills and riding timetrials is amongst the very best here and even though the startlist is quite packed with premium climbers, there's really not too many riders, who can offer such an allround package like Úran. The podium, that's for sure, must be the minimum goal.
The same goes for Keizer, who's by far the best TT specialist amongst the GC contenders. He may fear the hilly stage though, but with quite a nice acceleration, he should be considered as one of the best climbers in the race, too. With a 43km ITT as one key stage, it's pretty obvious that Keizer has to target for the overall victory in this comeback edition of the race.
And then there's Denifl as the best climber on paper. His lack of speed is well known, but there are quite some others at the start, who don't come with a much better kick than him. His advantage may be the hilly stage and at least, his timetrial skills ain't too shabby to be hopeless. He does need to gain time on the climbs though - at least against riders such as Keizer, Úran, but also less talented climbers like Shikai/Choi (a pretty interesing duo for Meiji), Eastman or former podium finisher Nepomnyachsniy, who should be an interesting option for Popo4ever. The same goes for Novak, who may be something like a dark horse for Repsol's ambitiouns in this race.
Meintjes as another serious GC contender, who does lack some TT skills in comparison to some earlier mentioned riders though. Kiserlovski, Nazaret, Valls or Penasa as other possible competitors for the very best here. Except of Nazaret, there's not too many differences between those guys in timetrials, so they will probably try to show themselves in the mountain stages. Early attacks maybe?
The Stage Hunters | Sprinters | HI | SP | AC | | Timetrial Specialists | PRL | TT |  Boivin | 70 | 79 | 80 | | Keizer | 81 | 81 | | Van der Sande | 70 | 79 | 79 | | Viennet | 80 | 80 | | Hayakawa | 65 | 79 | 79 | | Brändle | 79 | 79 | | Keough | 62 | 79 | 79 | | Mottin | 79 | 79 | | Manarelli | 59 | 79 | 79 | | Robert | 79 | 79 |  Brus | 64 | 78 | 78 | |  Olman | 79 | 79 | | Manan | 60 | 78 | 78 | | Úran | 78 | 78 | | Aregger | 71 | 78 | 77 | | Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 78 | | Corti | 63 | 78 | 76 | | Mullen | 78 | 78 |  Nielsen | 60 | 77 | 78 | | Golovash | 78 | 78 |  Sonnery | 69 | 77 | 71 | | Tennant | 77 | 78 | | Gatto | 73 | 77 | 70 | | Chavanne | 82 | 65 |
As already said, the flat stage may not really favor those few sprinters, who are hoping to steel some points, that they won't be able to get anywhere else. Boivin and Van der Sande appear to be the most interesting options for a bunch sprint scenario, but also Hayakawa or Aregger should be dangerous on this challenging profile. A few more sprinters would try to stay in the mix then.
The prologue will be a first chance for Keizer and Úran, but of course there are several pure TT specialists, who will target the prologue and also try to competitive in the late ITT:
Chavanne as the favorite for the prologue, just like Keizer (he will surely try to repeat his prologue-win from back in 2011), Viennet, Brändle, Mottin, Robert and Olman.. for the long timetrial, we should really fancy Keizer's chances (he will surely try to repeat his stage-win from back in 2015), but there's also Brändle and of course Úran and Nepomnyachsniy, who could be high in the GC to actually be a factor in this challenging timetrial. Those other names on the list will of course try to play their skills in such a long contest, but we know it ain't easy after a couple of days with lots of climbing.
Edited by tsmoha on 07-09-2018 09:28
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| roturn |
Posted on 07-09-2018 08:56
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A race that Keizer can win I think. Just one semi-hill stage.
He used to do very well on those kind of races in my PCT promotion season.
So obviously aiming for him, though Uran in especially will be a tough challenger as well. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 07-09-2018 09:11
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Nazaret one of the worst climbers here when it comes to his TT ability so hopefully he goes crazy in the mountains. He's going to have to if we want to get a decent GC result here. A fairly strong field but still one that he could get something out of if he shows some good form.
Got Borisavljevic here for the Youth classification and hopefully also a Top 20 GC which should be doable. Probably unlucky not to get a mention with 77MO, 73HIL, 74TT. Van den Broeck hopefully also to get Top 25 or 30 GC with 77MO.
Should be a good race and looking forward to some aggressive riding in the mountains. Good luck to all!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 07-09-2018 09:18
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Úran to go into the history books? Yes please!
Route is almost ideal for him, it's a case of gaining enough time on Keizer in the hilly stage and Denifl in the time trials. Then I think he has a pretty good chance. Podium is a must as you said.
Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 09:27
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Fantastic preview tsmoha!
As you say, Novak is my dark horse for the race. Not that i expect him to be even in the Top10, but together with Ndayisenga, i hope both can be in the region of 11-20 and bring some points home. Also Ndayisenga should be able to win the U25 jersey quite easily.
In general, i've tried to give Novak several chances to lead the team in favourable races for him, splitting his RD's between domestiques duties with Kudus and his own chances to lead. This is the first one where he "leads", so will see how he does
Uran or Keizer ftw, can't see anyone else in the fight really
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 07-09-2018 09:27
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Luis Leon Sanchez wrote:
Got Borisavljevic here for the Youth classification and hopefully also a Top 20 GC which should be doable. Probably unlucky not to get a mention with 77MO, 73HIL, 74TT. Van den Broeck hopefully also to get Top 25 or 30 GC with 77MO.
Indeed, unlucky. Made a cut somewhere to list some better TT riders (and Contador just for the fun of it) and with Nazaret as your best climber, I guess I cut some second-tier leaders then.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 07-09-2018 09:33
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ToME part 2 coming up then 
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| dominox |
Posted on 07-09-2018 10:45
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Well, I didn't expect that startlist to see to be honest. Sepulveda is starting his season here. I'm highly hoping his TT ability will means he will deliver in those races. Not lose much time on mountainous or hilly stages and do some great effort on TT. 75 MO, 76 HI, 75 TT isn't that much when I look at the startlist, but I hope for something better than few points throughout the race. Also Rodrigues. Pretty decent start so far, so let's see what he will do now. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 11:43
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Hope VDS can do well with no support in his Xero debut! Velits for the GC obviously, he better deliver! Top 5 should be doable despite the tough field. Hope Bennett can continue his ToME form whilst Velits gets a turnaround.
Really doubt the hill stage drops Henao by 7 minutes here Abhi 
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 13:34
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Hoping to steal the prologue win away from the PCT riders with a strong performance by Gabby, then hopefully Aregger and Olman can put in a couple of strong performances in their stages as well.
Ahmad Zamri is here as our token GC rider, we think even a top 20 is likely beyond him at this level but he's here to try in case he gets lucky and the TT allows him to gain more time on the stronger climbers than he loses in the mountains.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 14:04
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The first career race for Filippo Ganna, my potential new pet project.
Just a real shame it will take so long.
Mullen has to be the clear favorite, but maybe there's a small chance to take the U25 jersey and a rankings point in this prologue. Second or third of the young guns there should be the aim though.
A long TT is great too to give him an early sense of how to handle such long efforts.
For the rest of the race, Ganna should have a support role for Nazaret and Borisavljevic, who might have a shot at white overall if he can take sufficient TT time out of Ndayisenga and doesn't get used as a domestique.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 07-09-2018 14:37
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jandal7 wrote:
Really doubt the hill stage drops Henao by 7 minutes here Abhi
3 minutes in hill stage, 3 minutes in the TT = ToME part 2. My calculations rarely fail me 
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 18:26
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Think we've got a legit shot at any stage here apart from the hilly one. Shikai and Choi as a duo have not been the best but with so many race days between the two of them they basically have to double up sometimes, and their TT abilities both suit this race, so this is one of those times. If one can take a Top 5 I'd be happy, but both in the Top 10 would also be great.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 07-09-2018 18:54
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Keizer’s first race for us and our third goal already. Massive expectations here, hopefully we can deliver.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 07-09-2018 20:12
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A preety strong startlist, hoping Kiserlovski can finish in the Top10, and maybe Mottin for a surprise Top5 in one of the TT's.
Likely the race with the strongest compeition in the team's history, im going with Keizer ftw tho.. I'll also be hoping for some breakaway action.
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 07-09-2018 20:15
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Think Keizer has to be the favorite overall here, this is one of the races that really suits Eastman so need him to excel and pick up solid points in his first opportunity this season.
Also hoping Keough can get some points in his two shots in this race, first on the Prologue and then in the one Sprint.
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| Booker |
Posted on 07-09-2018 22:45
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Really looking forward to this one, hopefully Valls will benefit from the home race advantage! We've been having a few of those advantages in recent races
Looks like Keizer, Uran and Velits will be tough to knock off here, but if we manage two in the top 10, I'll be thrilled. Would also be great to see Mullen 1st in the U25 competition after the prologue, and who knows, maybe a cheeky stage podium in one of the time trials? Other than that, would be great to see our mountain domestiques pulling for 3P and Valls, and Kulczyk near the front of the pack.
Thanks for the preview tsmoha, you've clearly been given the responsibility of ensuring all the reports I read are of the highest quality.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 08-09-2018 07:56
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Honestly I'm surprised that Bardet missed out on the GC favorites list, but considering that he and Panayotov will be the top riders for some big races this is more of a test event for us
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 08-09-2018 09:11
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Obviously hoping the random TT gods like me this time, and that the mountains won't be too decisive... 
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 08-09-2018 09:29
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Top5 for Novak in the prologue is a fantastic result to start this race. Borisavljevic having a great day and getting a 18-second gap over Ndayisenga isn't so good, but it's still a recoverable time, nothing serious yet.
And Keizer dominating the race from the start  Indosat clearly in a good run lately
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