We are proud to present our PCT preview 2018. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal, knockout and trekbmc.
This preview consists of 4 parts:
1. Review of our 2017 predictions: Last season we posted a similar preview and we want to take a look at some of our statements from last season with a small fact check. There were requests by a couple of predictors to make a post about the correlation of the final PCT 2017 rankings with several predictions from last season and that analysis is included here.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a roundtable format where four of us gave their own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division.
3. The squads in detail: This part consists of two minor parts.
3a: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
3b: Team-specific question: Similar to the second part of the preview we once again answered questions about the teams in a roundtable format. This time though there is one question specifically asked for each team.
4. The “expert” predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table but this time after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective. We marked the changes to the quick prediction. Also we tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part two.
We start of by recalling some of our predictions for the 2017 season (including a couple of quotes), mostly to let you know how much you should take us seriously. FYI, we take this very seriously!
What did we predict for the PCT in 2017?
Prediction 1: We had Orange as title favourites, with mainly Berg and Grieg predicted to run them close.
Fact: They only managed 7th place and made it through to PT via Ferrero disbanding! Grieg and Berg on the other hand, finished 1st and 3rd in the division, respectively.
Prediction 2: We said Boasson Hagen, Amador and Sicard would be leading contenders for the individual crown. Van Garderen, Kwiatkowski and Burghardt were other names thrown into the ring.
knockout: I think it will come down to a two way battle between Boasson Hagen and Amador. Boasson Hagen is simply so much ahead of all other puncheurs that he should dominate the division. His 2016 season was disappointing and he has few RDs but he will be the clear favourite in every race he races. Amador is in a similar position to last season where he came very close to the crown and I expect Kinoshita to perform worse with EBH as rival so if EBH struggles Amador is #1 Contender.
Fact: Boasson Hagen won the individual crown with Amador finishing second. Van Garderen took the bottom step of the podium. Kwiatkowski finished 15th but the real under-performers were Sicard and Burghardt in 26th and 35th respectively.
Prediction 3: We were almost unanimous about Ferrero – Samruk being the best newly promoted PCT team last season. Podium Ambition was tipped to run them close.
jandal: I like a lot of the fresh blood from CT, I take Ferrero as my top but Minions, Podium Ambition, Kraftwerk are all there behind them. Maybe Ferrero, then Podium Ambition as a backup.
Fact: Ferrero were the second best newly promoted team. Podium Ambition and Minions were in relegation danger for a lot of the season. No one predicted Isostar to be as good as they were. We mostly blame their manager for influencing us against themselves!
Prediction 4: Barguil, Fraille, Debesay, Wisniowski, Kolesnikov, Juul-Jensen, Tsatevich, Guardini (as opposed to his team’s sprint leader Mohs) and Polanc were mentioned as the possible surprise packages of the year.
Fact: Wisniowski surprised alright; 4th in the individual standings ffs!! Barguil was 13th, Juul-Jensen was 21st and Polanc managed a top 50. The rest did fine but nothing outstanding.
Prediction 5: We mentioned Gautier, Schreurs, Flugel, Shikai, Nairo Quintana, Kamyshev, Roglic (!!), Maxime Daniel and Talansky as those likely to underperform last season.
AbhishekLFC: Gautier and Schreurs.
knockout: Gautier will likely get stronger this season or stay on a similar level than last season. Shikai, Nairo and Kamyshev won’t do well but they won’t be the biggest disappointments because one shouldn't have high expectations in them. Flügel is a good call as he will definitely regress - less support, the arrival of Tejay and Boasson Hagen - yes, he will disappoint. A less popular call: Primož Roglič. He received a very expensive training this offseason but i don’t think it will change a lot. He still is not good enough to compete with the best in mountains (and hills) and there are plenty of other riders for the hybrid profiles. Lots of similar riders like Kwiatek, Roche, Barguil or Schelling around and also the top specialists might go against him in those races. I believe that matt will have hoped for a far bigger effect of the training.
trekbmc: Aside from calling out leaders who have the obvious flaws in stats like acc or hill or just weak back-ups in general, I'm going to pick Maxime Daniel. I really like him as a rider and he should be one of the best cobblists but I get the feeling he'll falter. I think I already mentioned that I don't think Talansky will live up to his wage as well.
Fact: Flugel at 22nd was the best among this bunch, so we think we made some good calls (even though Abhishek's Gautier call was a really unpopular one at the time).
Prediction 6: We believed that Drapac, Guillen, Bouhanni, Lavoine, Vanoverschelde and Van Heerden were all in the running to be the lowest scoring 80+ sprinter.
AbhishekLFC: Bouhanni and Lavoine two more candidates for me, especially as the latter might get shunted to 2nd place in his team by Guardini.
knockout: Lavoine looks like a candidate if he is mainly used as option 1b / leadout but he also might benefit from a season planning that sees him in lots of races where you don’t see the better sprinters due to that. My pick though is Kobe Vanoverschelde. With his acceleration he simply looks like the weakest of the 80+ sprinters.
Croatia14: Bouhanni is loved by the AI so far. I can see Lavoine, but being a second sprinter might really benefit him, so I don’t see him there.
trekbmc: Guillen 100% Like Maksimov he will have a chance to shine in dead flat races but Guillen has a special lack of back-ups. Also, Juan van Heerden looks to me even worse than Vanoverschelde with even less acceleration.
jandal: I think van Heerden will somehow come up with the hits to outweigh the misses and so this one goes to Guillen but it could be a tight battle.
Fact: Keukeleire, who none of us mentioned, was the lowest scorer with 16 points. Guillen managed 17.
Prediction 7: We believed Ferrero - Samruk could follow Evonik and Strava and get back-to-back promotions.
Fact: They did get back-to-back promotion, albeit via the disband route. Isostar managed it via the direct route, finishing 2nd. Sadly, Ferrero have disbanded too since.
Prediction 8: We believed Berg, followed by Minions, Ferrero – Samruk and Podium Ambition had the best transfer window in 2017.
Fact: Berg’s transfer business did the job for them, getting them promotion to PT. Same was the case for Ferrero. Minions and Podium Ambition had nearly identical seasons at the opposite end of the table, fighting to save themselves from relegation till late into the season.
Prediction 9: We believed that none of the seven cobbles riders that Euskaltel signed in the closing stages of the transfer window last season would be useful.
Fact: Their sum total of points barely got into double figures!
Prediction 10: We believed that Fablok’s sprint duo of Mohs and Guardini would work best when split up.
AbhishekLFC: Not to forget Lavoine! Their sprinting team looks massive to me. Lavoine will be the one to get lesser chances to lead perhaps. The other two should be set for a good season.
Croatia14: Of course. In my eyes Guardini and Mohs have to be splitted. Guardini's stats do not suggest being the perfect leadout for Mohs. If they’ll sprint together too much then I indeed see a burden: It will lead to the complications we’ve seen pretty often when Dege couldn’t follow Mohs too often. My opinion: If Lavoine is the guy to leadout Mohs and Stepniak for Guardini then everything looks set for an outstanding season, that could well end in direct promotion. If Guardini leads out Mohs then I’d fear a major fail of Fablok that could even lead into finishing outside the first 10.
Fact: They didn’t really hit it off when working together, and got in each other’s way mostly.
Prediction 11: We believed that the ‘Slovenia first’ policy of Isostar would not harm their survival chances, and comfortably keep them safe.
trekbmc: Course it is! Although I just think that because having all national leaders is something that I think should be a goal for any team, so I applaud them for it. It’s also a good enough batch of riders that they’ll survive relegation without being over worried and next year we can all look on in envy at a maxed-out Mohoric and maybe either Kump trained to be even more amazing, or Polanc given the cobble stat to be up there with the best cobbles. I look forward to seeing it, although I fear having to race against them.
Fact: It got them promoted!
Prediction 12: We predicted that the pair of Uran and Betancourt would keep Minions well away from relegation trouble, and a couple of us even had them as promotion dark-horses.
Croatia14: Betancur is a Top 10-15 puncheur, which will make him decent, and Uran scores everywhere he goes really well (if planning is not screwed up royally). And having a Top5 stage racer normally almost certainly guarantees you non relegation. Everything on top is a bonus. The sprinters aren’t, despite the fact that PCM for strange reasons liked them a lot last year. The attackers really are though. Martinez has the perfect stage hunting stats if he rides complementary to Uran. Add Selander, Weiss, Kinney and also Dehaes and you have a really aggressive outlook that can surf the waves of attacking like they did last season. And who knows, with outstanding luck maybe towards disband promotion?
jandal: Uran and Betancourt (seriously why did people think this was how to spell it Pfft) are good leaders, mostly the former but Betancur (and Albert) are decent subtop leaders too. Their attacking style should remain, Martinez is great and Selander, Dehaes and Kinney should carry the Minions spirit especially with aggressive riding.
Fact: Betancourt flopped massively and it nearly proved to be their undoing despite Uran having a good season.
Prediction 13: We we were of the opinion that Kwiatkowski would get close to Luis Leon Sanchez’ points haul of 2016 for Netia, but would just fall short.
Croatia14: Definitely not. Luis Leon Sanchez is one of a kind, and he raced like that last year. Kwiatkowski will also be great, but not on the level of Sanchez. He reminds me of Roche last year, who was great, but not over the moon. Kwiatek will make an impact, but not the overwhelming one his manager may hope for. Remember that the calendar changes don’t really help Kwiatek. It should be enough to ensure that the team does not relegate though, especially as they still have good old LuLu himself.
knockout: I agree that Kwiatek should ensure avoiding relegation. I believe the stats of Kwiatek are better than LLS’s stats were last season but LLS outperformed his brilliant stats so i think he will get close but will not fully reach those 966 points from last season.
jandal: No he won’t, LLS outperformed amazingly last season for that top 5 but Kwiatek won’t hit those heights despite great stats. The duo should keep them afloat, I agree.
Fact: He fell nearly 300 points short.
Prediction 14: We were almost sure of Newton Foundation (now Desigual) promoting to the PT despite not having made significant additions to their squad.
knockout: Yes, it might get close but ultimately, i think they did not need any additions to their roster for bouncing back. Tejay was overshadowed by the arrival of EBH in PCT but he will perform massively. A nice classic duo and a duo of stage racers who might not shine much but will get the job done on pct level is all it needs to get a top seven finish which in most years is enough to promote back to pt.
Fact: They finished 5th and promoted to PT.
Prediction 15: We believed Valio would survive and continue to build on their success story of promoting Finnish cycling.
Fact: Unfortunately, they didn’t survive but somehow have become stronger after relegation and it looks very likely that they’ll be back to the PCT next season.
Here we could write a long post explaining what we predicted but a table says more than a thousand words. We also listed other predictions that were made.
sn
tam
c qca
tas
ma
bw
mv
at
ko
ab
a rt
c rt
j rt
k rt
rt so
1
Grieg – Eftel
8
14
7
6
3
16
11
15
3
18
8
2
2
2
1
2
Isostar – Adriatic
4
6
19
14
12
6
6
17
8
3
16
20
15
9
13
3
Berg Cycles
3
5
5
2
7
8
2
16
1
2
2
3
4
5
3
4
Team UBS
2
9
11
10
11
9
3
4
14
4
3
9
10
13
4
5
Newton Foundation
5
2
3
4
2
15
4
2
6
10
10
6
5
4
5
6
Ferrero – Samruk
12
4
6
8
4
17
10
22
5
8
6
8
7
6
12
7
Orange Pro Cycling
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
8
Fablok – Bank BGZ
19
15
9
5
6
5
14
10
4
6
9
5
6
3
7
9
Indosat Ooredoo– ANZ
10
17
13
11
10
20
7
19
17
15
7
14
8
16
8
10
SPAR – Shimano – SCG
6
20
8
3
13
14
12
5
9
14
13
11
13
11
11
11
Eritel – Sonatrach
11
7
14
12
23
10
9
26
15
7
4
18
19
15
19
12
Meiji – JR East
7
13
15
7
9
3
5
14
11
11
14
10
9
7
9
13
Kraftwerk Man Machine
16
19
12
16
16
7
15
7
10
17
15
12
16
10
14
14
Generali – EDF
17
3
1
9
5
2
17
13
7
9
5
4
3
8
6
15
Novatek – Panarmenian.net
13
10
16
15
14
18
13
8
19
16
12
19
14
22
18
16
Carlsberg – Danske Bank
18
12
18
26
22
21
20
11
16
12
21
24
18
19
21
17
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
24
23
21
21
21
26
24
21
22
26
25
17
20
20
20
18
Podium Ambition
20
8
4
18
15
12
8
12
12
19
18
7
12
12
10
19
Euskaltel
22
21
25
24
20
13
21
18
24
24
24
23
24
21
24
20
Minions
9
11
10
17
18
22
16
3
13
5
11
16
11
14
16
21
Netia – Vónin
26
26
20
13
17
24
26
24
18
23
17
15
17
17
17
22
Valio – DeLaval
21
24
17
20
8
23
25
6
20
25
19
13
22
18
15
23
MOL – OMV Petrom
15
18
22
25
24
11
19
9
23
20
23
21
23
25
22
24
Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
25
25
26
19
26
19
22
23
21
21
22
26
26
24
26
25
Compal – Merida
14
16
24
22
25
4
18
25
25
13
20
22
21
23
25
26
Haute Route – Mavic
23
22
23
23
19
25
23
20
26
22
26
25
25
26
23
sn
SN's Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview
tam
Tamijo's Mathestimat
c qca
Croatia's QCA prediction
tas
Tastasol
ma
matt17br
bw
Bushwackers
mv
Marcovdw's OVR Final Ranking
at
Atlantius
ko
Knockout PCT Prediction
ab
AbhishekLFC - Coefficient Based
a rt
Abhishek Round Table Expert Prediction
c rt
Croatia Round Table Expert Prediction
j rt
Jandal Round Table Expert Prediction
k rt
Knockout Round Table Expert Prediction
rt so
RoundTable Statistical Outcome
The conglomerate had a pretty good grasp about which teams would fight for direct promotion. Berg Cycles and Newton were predicted by nearly everybody in a similar position and while the majority of other predictions were sceptical about Grieg, the conglomerate agreed that they are a serious title contender. UBS was graded quite similarly to the majority of predictions while Isostar was one of the biggest mis-evaluations of the Conglomerate. Whether they overperformed or whether we were influenced by repeated statements about a relegation fight is up to you to decide. Orange, Eritel, Generali and Podium Ambition were amongst the bigger misses in the middle of the ranking while all relegation teams were expected by us to be in the relegation fight.
To compare our ranking accuracy with other predictions we tracked the correlation of each prediction with the ranking updates. Here are the correlations with the final rankings:
Correlation
Prediction
1.
0,8321
Knockout PCT Prediction
2.
0,8240
Knockout Round Table Expert Prediction
3.
0,8164
RoundTable Statistical Outcome
4.
0,7704
Jandal Round Table Expert Prediction
5.
0,7565
Marcovdw's OVR Final Ranking
6.
0,7564
Tastasol
7.
0,7472
Abhishek Round Table Expert Prediction
8.
0,7112
SN's Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview
9.
0,7017
matt17br
10.
0,6878
Croatia Round Table Expert Prediction
11.
0,6520
Croatia's QCA prediction
12.
0,6119
AbhishekLFC - Coefficient Based
13.
0,5928
Tamijo's Mathestimat
14.
0,2655
Atlantius
Spoiler
A couple of minor ones were tracked just in case anyone is interested in them. Symbols remain the same as in our early season updates / correlation updates for other divisions.
Do you think the division is stronger or weaker than last season?
AbhishekLFC: It is probably weaker. Or more accurately, the teams have got really close this season. There are probably 15 teams in the division who can get into the promotion spots, albeit some considerably more likely than others. I don’t think that was the case last season.
knockout: I agree that the top of the division got weaker. There is no team in the division this year that would have been a lock to promote last season. However, i believe the bottom half of the team got considerably stronger this season. There are a couple of teams this season who could relegate who probably would not have been in a lot of trouble last season.
trekbmc: I generally agree, the top is significantly weaker, but the bottom is generally stronger, so overall it’s a lot closer, but I think as a whole that makes for a stronger division, so I’d count it as stronger and overall better than in the past.
Who will win the individual standings?
knockout: Let’s start with the biggest name: Pluchkin is arguably the strongest rider in the division and looks far better than the next few stage racers. If planned well he looks super tough to beat.
jandal: Pluchkin is the only option for me, no matter if you think his planning is slightly wrong. I can’t see anybody being dominant enough in hills or sprints to pass what he can squeeze out of his RDs.
trekbmc: I think Pluchkin’s achilles heel might be his race days and if he’s not planned perfectly, somebody could steal his spot at the top. If either Lutsenko or Kinoshita can take control of the hills I think they could top the Moldovan, otherwise, Blythe could dominate the cobbles but really I’m going to pick Jerome Coppel to win, he can really deliver in time trials and most hilly or flat tours containing the discipline too, maybe he can dominate enough to take the overall spoils, though maybe I just want to swim against the Pluchkin stream.
Who will be the biggest surprise of the season?
knockout: Laurent Pichon is a candidate for this. The competition on the hills will be close this season with many different winners and Pichon might not be on the radar of a lot of guys after a quiet season scoring 165 PT points as super domestique for Bakelants. Strava might have disbanded but always bet on some Strava magic!
jandal: I am a huge Pichon fan for a few years, and I would love you to be right and for him to disregard Dowsett and lead Nordstrom. Ditto for Villela to get aggressive/overperform at Nordstrom. But if they can’t I have my eyes on two cobblists and two lovely prologue riders who people underestimate in road races: the cobblers are the Kuroeda brothers, the prologue specialists are punchy sprinter-prologueist Kazushige Kuboki, and super rouleur with a kick, Lasse Norman Hansen, two of the loveliest riders around.
trekbmc: It’s always hard to work out who quite counts as a surprise, like I think Monsalve could be one of the best riders of the season, Similarly I reckon Lander and Villela would score well. Otherwise Maillet will be amazing in the mountain breakaways and if we’re talking breaks, Novardianto will also be a threat in them who scores more than his stats suggest. Dall’Oste too as always and basically any Generalli guy. Finally, can I steal your Kuroedas pick, jandal?
jandal: I don’t think Dall’Oste is a surprise to overperform at this point!
trekbmc: It is to me based on his stats which do not justify it at all! Fair enough though, that was a cheat pick.
AbhishekLFC: Luke Rowe could be a overperformer if planned well. That’s a cool rider to have and have the opportunity to possibly train for 2 more years.
Who will be the biggest disappointment of the season?
knockout: Ruben Zepuntke will continue to perform below expectations and if that pushes Minions deep into relegation trouble then he will likely go down as one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Another disappointment candidate is Fabio Duarte who had a pretty solid 2017 campaign scoring 520 points but i think he will severely regress this season with the influx of stage racers with good TT skills like Pluchkin, Keizer, Eastman and Velits joining the PCT. Third and final name on my list is Marlon Zmorka.
AbhishekLFC: I know this will sound weird, but if millionaire Lutsenko doesn’t keep Reddit up, won’t he be the biggest disappointment of the season? If Ion Izagirre has a repeat of last season, then he’s another contender. I’m not very sure of what to expect from Saber and Henao either.
jandal: I agree with two names here for top dog: Zepuntke and Lutsenko, who could certainly send down their teams with their perhaps overreliance on those two names. Another name in a similar boat is David de La Cruz, who has some justifying to do of that €388,000 wage. I also think Waeytens’ training won’t improve him as much as manager Oldfart wants, but is it really a surprise if he’s crap? Like Abhi, I doubt some of my own, specifically Velits.
trekbmc: I agree with De la Cruz mostly of the names mentioned, not sure about Zeptunke. Though I do think if Izagirre is good it’d be a surprise, not the other way around! I hate saying this, but maybe Vanspeybroeck and Nolf as a duo, I think Blythe and Baugnies are definitely stronger than the former and I’m not sure that latter has it in him, even filling in a super domestique role. Finally two names that jump at me for no reason other than gut instinct, Froome and Berhane. Wage wise, Meintjies is already a disappointment.
Which training will have the biggest effect/was the smartest?
jandal: I think the outright biggest training in the division was the work at Generali on Theuns (76>78 COB) and Roglic (79>80 MON), but if I had to pick one piece of training which could have the biggest effect, it is Ryan Eastman’s buff at Azteca (80>81 MON, 75>76 TT). He’s not a world beater or a massive game-changer for the Americans but they need any points they can get, and if that secures him some great stage race placings and a TOA romp with stage wins and yellow jersey points all around, it could do a great deal in their fight for survival.
knockout: I don't like the Eastman training. I dont think it’s enough to get him a good enough extra amount of points to get close to surviving and i think they could have used that money better on buying a rider (even with their American first philosophy) or if they insist on using that money on training then a trained Chaves is the one who i see as the guy who could push them closer to the safe zone. My favourite PCT training is Edward Teuns as it should push the team even closer to promotion while also being favourable for future seasons.
AbhishekLFC: Not a lot of trainings done in PCT, to be honest. Overall, I’ll have to agree that Generali’s trainings as a package were brilliant and will definitely play a big role in helping them promote. Besides what has already been said, Barbin to 76 ACC could be an interesting one while Popo4Ever will be hoping Prevar repays their faith as secondary scorer after the training to 79 HIL Waeytens was poor last season. Will the extra HIL and TT (!!) points help? Only time will tell.
trekbmc: Obviously Generali’s Theuns and Roglic training is very strong in general as others have mentioned, especially making Theuns a poor man’s Bewley seems like a genius move, though maybe more long term, we’ll see. I have to say I love Navardauskas to 75 hill as well, he’s no Coppel but he’s seriously good for hill/TT tours!
knockout: Pluchkin is the one and only legit answer for me. I don't see anybody being close enough to beat him in a proper mountainous stage race.
jandal: Pluchkin is too easy, but he’s not in quite a few races, so why don’t we have a nice discussion about who wins the race for scraps? In the pure high mountain (and TT) stuff I can’t look past Uran for best of the rest - but Keizer can never be counted out with his huge TT and backups. Shoutout to Monsalve too for his >80RES which will scare the likes of Denifl, Henao and Velits on 82MON. Uran and Keizer are the men to beat, with those other four plus Kudus and Eastman next. A very wide open field battling for those top 10s should see a rotating cast of characters.
trekbmc: Pluchkin is the obvious one, yeah, I think Keizer’s a really interesting contender with actually having higher TT and res, so under the right circumstances he might be able to win and honestly, Pluchkin can’t be at every stage race, Henao, Uran and Velits are all super strong climbers and I’m betting on Roglic to win Vancouver.
knockout: To me, Keizer looks the best of the rest although it will depend massively on the exact profile.
How will Cyprus go?
knockout: I love this race but this is a difficult question because the startlist is the first big mystery at this point. I expect most good cobblers to attend simply because they don't have too many RDs on the schedule but whether climbers will attend is interesting. I think climbers with solid cobble stats (65+) will be favourites on a route like that so guys like Kwiatek, Squire, Roglic or maybe even someone like Choi would be guys to watch if they attend. Of course also guys like Marzuki, Debesay or Malacarne could do well. Amongst the cobblers Vanspeybrouck will surely finish within the top ten if his team puts the hammer down on the cobbles and Edward Teuns is an intriguing candidate as well. Finally, i want to throw the name Chun Kai Feng as an outside candidate for a high finish into the ring.
jandal: My #1 pick for this is Kwiatkowski. I actually think it will be a 5-10 man sprint on the cobbled stage with hell behind (as PCM 15 likes to do to Herning) but some serious chaos behind. That means I’m not a fan of any 65- COB climbers going there. But Squire and Roglic are good options after Kwiatek. I don’t think it will be Debesay or Marzuki, but the latter especially can do well. I’d love a Malacarne-Theuns-Roglic triple threat approach from Generali. Chris Juul-Jensen is my final interesting option, not for the win but if he (with his 70 COB/MON) stays near enough then goes after it on the hilly stage he could find himself in the top 10 or even higher.
trekbmc: I mean, I’m biased here, but I hope it’s Kwiat ,I’d see him and Roglic being the main two contenders with high mountain stats, decent cb and high hill, I think Kwiat is better suited of the two but could go either way, the other outcome though is that the cobblists kill the cobbled stage, it will be interesting to see who shows up but if you’ve got the top cobbles guys tearing up the cobbles then maybe it is Vanspeybroeck, Burghardt or someone similar’s chance.
Which non promoted team(s) is/are in trouble?
jandal: Instantly Euskaltel comes to mind, and they are the only established/relegating PT team I’d bet on going down. As knockout mentioned in the weaker/stronger debate you could say the bottom of the table has improved, and they haven’t rose to the occasion enough to steer clear of the dogfight. Meanwhile Minions are the next team to mention in my eyes - Zepuntke can’t repeat his failure of 2016 and Uran needs to be winning those behind-Pluchkin battles consistently to get the job done.
knockout: Euskaltel is quite obviously a big candidate to relegate and it actually looked at times like they didn't even try to avoid relegation. I also see the Minions as a team that will battle against relegation for quite similar reasons although Quevedo not trying to make a crash compilation for youtube would surely help. Last but not least: It kinda turned into a prediction tradition for many to predict the Netia relegation but this doesn't mean that they won’t be in trouble this season.
AbhishekLFC: Yes, Euskaltel look to be the obvious choice here. Popo4Ever needs Nepom and Prevar, among others to step up and complement Pluchkin, otherwise, they’ll be in trouble. Minions have already been mentioned so I won’t expand much about them. The other PCT repeaters should be strong enough to finish mid to lower mid-table.
trekbmc: Honestly, this is tough to pick, lots of teams could go down and I think it’ll be more clear not far into the season. They’ve already been mentioned Euskaltel, Minions and Netia are the most likely if their leaders fail I guess (I’m not betting against myself yet though!) Lierse would be in the same boat too but their leaders would never ever fail them, but they won’t.
Who will win the PCT puncheur battle?
knockout: This year’s puncheur division is one of the most even ones in recent years and i struggle to see a clear favourite. Flügel, Schreurs and McCarthy are all good riders that can win on any given day but i see three names at the top very close to each other: Lutsenko, Kinoshita and i expect Ulissi to celebrate a couple of times too.
AbhishekLFC: Kinoshita and Lutsenko would be my top picks as well. With EBH and TVG gone from the division, these two should be the ones that dominate, although it will be a lot closer than last season.
jandal: I am really looking forward to watching the hills races in PCT this year, it’s a very nice open field! As the others mentioned Kinoshita and Lutsenko are the probable top guys but I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s EBH-TVG antics. Loads of guys could win races and will feel hard done by outside the top 5 but will be there sometimes - Ulissi, Schreurs, Flugel, McCarthy, Froome, etc. Just not Dowsett.
trekbmc: Kinoshita, Kinoshita, Kinoshita! With EBH and TVG gone the puncheur throne can finally return to non acronymized riders and 2016 is back for Meiji’s hero! Courtesy mention for Lutsenko being the best on paper with 81 acceleration and Ulissi for looking awesome before he inexplicably fails to be. I think McCarthy too will also be very successful.
Degenkolb vs Cavendish vs Mohs vs Ewan vs Lo Cicero?
AbhishekLFC: I would have to go with Degenkolb, followed by Ewan. I don’t think Lo Cicero’s 2017 season was a one-off, Mohs and Cavendish will be better than him again this season.
knockout: Same here: Degenkolb is the best sprinter with Ewan a close second. I think Lo Cicero will bounce back a bit with a stronger season but neither him or Mohs/Cav will be able to beat the two top sprinters in the final rankings.
jandal: Degenkolb and Ewan seem like the top two. I’d almost say Lo Cicero as a top guy by virtue of his train, but it lacks a high FL/RES guy to bring it home and put other guys in trouble for me.
trekbmc: I’m not sold on Lo Cicero, I kinda think Dege, Ewan and Mohs will share it pretty equally, with no super major ‘winner’, They all have the back-ups to perform and Mohs’ slight deficit in resistance and hill I think.
Yates, Roglic, Kwiatek, Talansky, Meintjes or someone else to take the HI/MO crown?
jandal: Let’s give it a crack. I really think it’s the former trio’s playground in those races given the ACC points lacking in some of the competitors. I predict Yates takes it out but it really could be any of those three. Watch out for 2017 CT puncheur duo Chaves and Boily coming up as guys who could do well if they take some initiative. I would also love to see Rafa Valls given a go here even if it wouldn’t be him at the front. Speaking of Repsol (because Valls = Repsol), Merhawi Kudus could do alright in these as well, especially if he can drop the puncheurs in the mountains this time around!
knockout: I don't like talking about a “Hi/MO crown”, simply because each route is very different and deciding whether someone is a climber or a HI/MO guy is often very arbitrary. The questions mentions Roglic, Talansky and Meintjes while all of them could be seen as rather traditional climbers and guys like Monsalve or Kudus could also be seen as one of the best guys for HI/MO in the PCT peloton depending on the exact route of a race. George Bennett, John-Lee Augustyn, David Boily, etc: The list is long but ultimately, i think Kwiatek is the best one for HI/MO races and Yates the best one for MO/HI races if that makes sense.
trekbmc: I think Knockout hit the nail on the head with his final comment, obviously I’m biased towards Kwiat again but I think it’ll just depend on if there’s more hills and a smaller mountain influence, where he should be a favourite, verses when there’s more mountains Yates and Roglic should be stronger as well as potentially other climbers that are less likely to show up in favour of more mountainous races, then Roglic will have an advantage in races like Romandie with Generalli’s TTT strength, so really every race will be different.
Which 80+ sprinter does the worst?
jandal: Vanoverschelde, Guillen and Van Heerden all went to CT so no obvious answers. I’ll take a punt on Matt Rowe struggling to make the jump to PCT - but watch out for Adrien Petit if things don’t go his way in Carrefour season planning, or Castaneda if he has panic attacks on all the speedbumps.
knockout: I’m hating on Matt Rowe every time i’m doing a season preview for his team’s division since i joined the MG in 2014 and he is my pick for this, too.
AbhishekLFC: Rowe does look like the obvious candidate doesn’t he, with 70 ACC.
jandal: That’s what all the CT has been saying for a while Abhi, but he still gets a win!
trekbmc: Well the obvious answer is Drapac with no hill, but he inexplicably won a race last season, Ulanowski, Rowe and Castañeda are other obvious picks as well (and I really want to pick Guillen still ) I think Meyer will be the worst sprinter, but his prologue points will bring him up above some others, guess I’ll take Ulanowski as the worst - bet he wins a HC classic.
Which team has the brightest future?
AbhishekLFC: Although it looks like Euskaltel are the team that has loaded themselves with talent, how many can they retain next season? Ayubowan look great with their oldest rider being less than 30. Lierse have an impressive array of talent, despite missing out a large part of the transfers and still look set to improve their position from last season. Netia have a good lineup of youngsters too, albeit some are out on loan this time around. Their future cobbles team is going to be scary.
jandal: I think Euskaltel could be in trouble, but it’s not bad for their future, but not as good as LLS might like it to be. As Abhi said it looks like Ayubowan, Lierse and Netia will be the ones to watch further down the track. All of them have amazing futures, personally I’m most excited by the Netia cobbles brand and the training potential of Pedersen but the massive talent pool at Lierse with nice stat sets and the sustainability plus big talents of Ayubowan is equally as exciting objectively
knockout: Ayubowan, Lierse and Netia (barring relegation) all look into a bright futures but i also want to mention two more teams that havent been mentioned yet and who don't fit the unmaxed-talents-look that most other mentioned teams fit in: Generali has a fantastic base for a promotion since they have a lot of assets that could be leveraged into PT leaders and the big majority of riders is 30 or younger. And Team Reddit who - if they survive - have an amazing U26 leader duo with one of the strongest time trialists for the post Coppel era and one of the strongest young puncheurs which gives them a fantastic base to build on.
Can anyone follow Strava/Evonik/Isostar and go back-to-back?
knockout: I don't see any promoted team in a position where they are favourites to promote. However, the whole division is so close this season that it is likely that one of them overperforms enough to be in the fight for 5th-7th.
AbhishekLFC: I have to agree with knockout. No promoted team have had a good enough transfer window to challenge for promotion, at least directly.
jandal: I like Philips the best, a gap to Kulczyk who are also very nice and Repsol should be solid. But none in the top 5 I think, maybe if we get a freaky amount of disbands I could see 1-2, especially given the closeness of a lot of the mid-table spots. I’d bet on no, like the other two.
trekbmc: I really really like Phillip’s chances to do this, just having 3 nice leaders and a good team behind them, it’s the right combination for it, maybe not automatic, but I think they will, I’ve told jandal a number of times that Xero is Isostar, but everybody will hate me for saying that so I won’t. Repsol maybe is the other main contender but would have to have great planning with some luck mixed in there.
Who has fared the best of the promoted teams?
jandal: Philips takes it for me - others have done well but I think it’ll be them taking out honours in that competition within a competition.
knockout: I really like what Kulczyk did during transfers. Signing Baugnies, Valls, Barbin and Lavoine to the CT core of Penasa, Bennett and Mullen (all 31y or younger) gives them great depth and gives them a good headstart for a 2019 promotion push if they stay in PCT and Pavarin, Vanendert and Langeveld will be very useful this season too.
AbhishekLFC: I liked my CT team more Xero haven’t done a bad job themselves with contenders on every terrain and Carrefour (I keep bringing them up everywhere! Maybe because of the way they’re set up) could make a splash if they sort out their sprinters’ planning and PCM sorts out their sprints.
trekbmc: I’m just going to say this, I don’t get the Kulczyk hype and I’ve made an extended argument as to why I think that in the team by team analysis, I think at the very least, you’ve got Phillips making a big leap to the top and Repsol not doing so bad as I mentioned before and I do think Xero fared very well as well.
Who will make the biggest rankings improvement of the 2017 PCT teams?
AbhishekLFC: I think I’ll go with Generali. They look like a surefire direct promotion candidate and that would be a major improvement from 14th place last season.
knockout: Yep, it’s Generali for me too. They have plenty of room to improve and they are probably the one team closest to 2017 relegation that is a promotion favourite right from the start.
jandal: Can’t do much more than agree with Generali! Second year in a row with an obvious answer?
AbhishekLFC: Matt will definitely be hoping we get it right again
trekbmc: I love Generali’s squad and think they should win the rankings 100% and be the greatest team ever, so they will definitely not make the biggest improvement, because PCM hates us all. Of course, now I realise my other options are Meiji and Novatek, damn. Can’t go back on my word, so I have to pick Fablok. But I do love Generali still!
Are Ayubowan’s 2nd and 3rd tier leaders going to give them the final push into automatic promotion?
AbhishekLFC: I think they’re sure for an automatic promotion anyway. Their 2nd and 3rd tier leaders will just consolidate the same.
jandal: Exactly what Abhi said. I don’t think they’re the key to their promotion unless the top three/four underperform, but surely Carthy and Kemboi (even Chatarunga and Atkins) are very useful guys to have.
knockout: I think their leaders trio Monsalve, Yates and McCarthy are deciding their faith. I don't think that guys like Carthy and Kemboi will play a huge role for them this season although especially Carthy will give them a steady points income from depth results. Lander is a nice-to-have guy with lots of upside but he won’t be the one giving them the final push to automatic promotion as that will have to come from the main trio.
trekbmc: I mostly agree with what’s already been said, the top three gus in Monsalve, McCarthy and Yates will be really nice scorers already but I would like to see what impact guy like Lander, Carthy and Kemboi have on their final position, if it’s what brings them up to automatic promotion or a podium or the final win, as I think they could be very solid scorers, particularly Lander.
Ayubowan!
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
8
6
4
5
7
Croatia14
9
8
4
3
5
6
jandal7
9
8
5
3
4
8
knockout
9
7
4
3
4
7
trekbmc
7
8
7
3
5
8
Azteca - NBCSN
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Ryan Eastman
70
81
71
76
76
75
76
56
62
69
73
66
73
Raúl Granjel Cabrera
75
63
69
66
75
71
82
58
80
77
61
66
71
Johan Esteban Chaves
70
76
79
68
74
73
72
54
58
72
69
64
68
Robbie Squire
68
77
77
65
70
70
76
65
61
71
76
65
65
Luke Keough
73
59
62
58
67
73
73
59
79
79
63
75
80
Edison Bravo
70
70
76
64
74
73
70
55
65
70
71
71
66
Geremie Nzeke
67
72
76
61
72
67
67
63
66
68
75
74
63
Rafael Andriato
71
55
64
61
72
68
75
56
78
76
63
67
72
Gavin Mannion
68
77
71
64
72
76
65
55
61
71
67
63
64
Peter Stetina
64
78
67
64
67
74
74
60
55
65
76
73
64
Sergio Ortega
65
76
65
75
68
74
74
51
53
62
59
59
73
César Vaquera
69
55
64
54
68
65
72
55
76
78
64
64
54
Víctor Hugo Orozco
64
76
66
61
68
71
68
52
61
76
75
61
61
Ethan Weiss
74
58
73
67
74
68
69
54
67
77
79
64
67
Christian Meier
68
72
63
75
68
73
69
63
60
70
70
75
75
Óscar Solis
65
78
59
58
67
77
74
51
59
66
72
65
58
Félix Emilio Besada
67
62
75
54
72
73
63
58
55
75
56
55
54
Juan Martinez
75
52
60
74
68
71
68
67
72
72
68
69
75
Sepp Kuss
67
74
67
62
72
73
68
50
55
66
63
72
63
William Barta
68
71
70
69
67
70
65
54
72
66
65
56
71
Hampus Anderberg
71
64
68
69
70
71
74
70
60
72
69
61
69
Neilson Powless
69
68
67
71
69
69
69
59
64
70
63
64
71
Xuban Errazkin
69
68
70
67
69
70
70
64
62
66
64
65
67
German Nicolas Tivani
65
63
65
62
66
73
66
56
70
73
72
67
67
Jhonatan Casillas
67
63
64
71
67
69
65
54
61
73
66
72
71
Alexander Cowan
65
56
68
57
66
69
65
50
68
70
69
63
68
Daniel Jara
67
68
66
67
68
60
63
58
65
67
63
60
67
Julian Cardona
68
64
62
70
67
67
63
62
64
67
59
65
70
Adam Roberge
66
69
62
64
71
69
63
61
60
64
47
64
64
Ruben Acosta
66
69
61
63
74
72
64
63
62
58
63
75
63
Is Azteca just a larger CT team?
knockout: Yes! You know you’re in trouble when Luke Keogh is the most interesting rider who didn’t ride in CT last season. It would be very generous to call Eastman, Granjel Cabrera or Chaves as a good PCT leader and the tail at the end of the squad picture is too long. This is will be a loooooong season for them.
jandal: Agreed. That’s a ridiculously large and not that great squad. I don’t mind any of their leaders at a PCT level but they are very much lacking some firepower and proper leader(s). Good planning for Granjel, Keough and Chaves is a must to make them punch above second class sprinter x2 and sub-sub-top puncheur.
trekbmc: I’m kinda just wondering if Valio has a stronger squad, Manninen is better than Granjel Cabrera, Gautier is similar to Eastman in terms of points scoring capability, Konig is better than Squire, but Keough takes the win over Liepins, I think Chaves and mountain depth push Azteca ahead though. Unfortunately there a lot of riders and most aren’t too great, but at least they can develop some guys. Hopefully Eastman gets some wins.
Azteca
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
5
6
0
2
6
Croatia14
7
5
5
1
3
6
jandal7
8
5
6
0
1
6
knockout
5
6
4
0
1
7
trekbmc
7
5
3
0
1
7
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Pieter Vanspeybrouck
76
66
71
62
78
71
72
82
67
69
74
79
62
Christopher Juul-Jensen
73
70
78
67
76
74
71
70
66
79
80
69
67
Frederik Nolf
74
63
66
64
77
72
69
80
63
71
75
60
64
Asbjorn Kragh Andersen
77
52
64
65
70
74
78
53
80
77
60
61
75
Davide Appollonio Davide
74
57
66
61
71
66
72
65
81
78
60
59
61
Thomas Vedel Kvist
75
62
65
64
74
75
80
71
77
78
75
73
64
Ramon Sinkeldam
74
65
75
64
74
70
68
77
68
68
75
74
64
Marc Christian Garby
65
79
70
68
71
76
75
50
52
70
72
63
68
Jasper Stuyven
70
63
77
58
75
67
68
62
66
74
79
69
58
André Steensen
74
59
72
77
77
73
72
60
63
70
73
62
77
Christian Ranneries
70
52
56
63
68
65
77
61
78
82
60
62
65
Gaëtan Pons
72
66
73
67
73
74
69
67
74
76
65
67
69
Jesper Hansen
72
64
75
64
76
69
74
64
66
75
69
71
69
Mads Würtz
74
64
69
77
74
75
72
62
66
70
67
71
74
Niki Østergaard
74
51
63
62
76
69
69
75
65
74
78
62
62
Michael Faerk Christensen
78
60
64
77
67
74
67
65
67
65
64
69
77
Rasmus Quaade
71
54
63
78
72
70
65
59
61
63
66
60
76
Max Öste-Macdonald
65
75
64
61
65
75
73
61
55
74
68
72
61
Niklas Eg
66
73
69
71
73
71
71
59
60
67
66
65
69
Marc De Maar
74
65
72
71
73
69
67
71
64
74
71
66
71
Martin Schoffmann
67
73
72
57
69
71
72
51
59
68
67
67
55
Rasmus Tiller
67
63
67
67
68
68
67
69
67
72
68
69
69
Mathias Krigbaum
74
65
68
69
70
70
68
62
65
63
69
69
68
Kasper Asgreen
66
61
70
67
68
66
64
55
63
68
69
65
67
Erik Nordsaeter Resell
70
56
65
65
68
68
67
69
61
70
71
68
65
Patrick Olesen
67
68
68
62
71
69
69
63
63
66
54
65
61
Filip Bengtsson
65
57
61
60
65
72
62
57
71
72
72
63
63
Arturs Belevics
69
59
61
69
68
65
66
62
63
66
70
63
69
Where are the points coming outside of cobbles for Carlsberg?
AbhishekLFC: Yes it’ll come from the sprints. It’ll come from Juul-Jensen. Not sure how much, and not sure it’ll be as much as last season, but they won’t come out of the other terrains empty-handed.
knockout: Cobbles obviously are the big strength of the 2018 Alcoholics but they’ll score outside of it too. Juul-Jensen got a lot of hype the last one or two seasons but rightfully so as he is a strong rider who will likely repeat his success again. I also believe that Asbjorn Kragh will have a strong season.
jandal: Don’t disregard Garby, who had a top 100 season last year. But yes, it’s obviously going to be The Joker and the sprinters who provide other terrain scoring. I really like this squad and their future but also the here and now for them. There are decent TT guys but scoring will be sparse with no 80+ ITT or enough depth for a TTT. I look at this team as a team with depth of cobbles leaders rather than a cobbles team (especially given they can’t make a full squad of 70+ guys there).
trekbmc: I think their cobbles squad isn’t quite as good as it looks, but it’ll still score really well, then there are just nice scorers everywhere, Juul-Jensen obviously is my favourite, but a hoard of sprinters, TTists, Garby, it’s kinda just there for a lower mid table finish I guess even if maybe none of the other guys are really scoring big.
Carlsberg
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
5
7
9
7
5
Croatia14
3
7
7
9
5
4
jandal7
3
6
7
9
5
5
knockout
3
7
5
10
4
4
trekbmc
4
7
7
9
5
3
Carrefour - ESPN
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Jerome Coppel
77
66
76
83
78
78
74
54
65
74
73
64
83
Ivano Lo Cicero
72
56
64
56
71
63
79
69
84
78
54
60
75
Romain Vanderbiest
74
64
64
67
74
69
81
58
82
77
55
65
74
Adrien Petit
76
52
65
61
76
72
78
72
80
78
65
68
66
Andrea Palini
69
70
78
66
75
68
69
54
68
74
69
61
66
Kevin Feiereisen
74
62
68
58
73
68
75
63
77
78
61
68
69
Jérome Giaux
73
59
67
68
72
68
78
71
77
75
67
68
68
Damien Gaudin
74
51
68
67
77
69
71
77
57
71
72
58
67
Patrick Bercz
72
62
70
60
73
68
75
66
76
77
67
66
60
Daniel Schorn
76
56
61
69
67
65
77
62
77
77
66
65
72
Wen Hao Li
75
53
61
78
73
68
71
50
75
75
64
64
78
Jonathan Castroviejo
70
72
75
70
71
70
70
56
67
74
73
65
70
Alexandre Aulas
73
55
67
61
75
67
69
73
74
72
63
80
61
Nikolaos Ioannidis
66
71
70
71
73
71
69
57
58
69
71
67
72
Thanawut Sanikwathi
68
57
65
65
66
65
65
69
73
74
66
71
68
Jhonatan Restrepo
69
65
71
69
68
67
71
55
69
70
63
67
69
Abou Sanogo
69
61
69
64
68
69
62
71
67
69
73
72
70
Aleksa Crncevic
66
70
66
67
66
66
69
64
61
68
66
75
66
Jan Drago Petelin
68
70
68
62
69
67
66
50
54
68
65
59
61
Alan Banaszek
66
61
62
61
67
67
62
57
69
73
65
67
67
Can Carrefour avoid a repeat of Fablok’s sprint troubles with three leaders?
knockout: In Fabloks case splitting the sprint leaders up looked like the more promising strategy to me. In the case of Carrefour I believe that using Vanderbiest as a leadout for Lo Cicero could work really well and could push Lo Cicero into being a major contender for flat races like in the 2016 season as their strengths match really well. A Giaux-Vanderbiest-Lo Cicero train would be one of the most interesting and strongest ones in the entire division.
jandal: I’d like to see them mix and match in parts (not great to have no 80+ ACC sprinters but could be a blessing in disguise for Il Toro) given their big depth but I agree with knockout that especially Vanderbiest matches Lo Cicero well enough to lead him out. Petit, Giaux and Aulas can be freed to try do anything on the cobbles behind Gaudin, but I do like them all helping out. Plenty of options for Carrefour. I will say I am missing a flat engine if they want to get to clinical leadout blowing everybody out of the water levels (Only 4 guys above 70 RES looks weird in their team!). Yes, Petit-Vanderbiest-Lo Cicero could work, to actually answer the question
trekbmc: I think it really just depends on how Lo Cicero is delivering, whether it’s more like 2016 or 2017 as a sprint train can only do so much if PCM decides they don’t like your sprinter, especially as jandal said they’re lacking a really strong rouleur. So imo, splitting the three up, only occasionally bringing them together for very flat races, could lead to the greatest points gain from the trio, especially as without many spare C1 choices after picking races for Coppel to lead and for Lo Cicero, letting Vanderbiest and Petit hunt stages may be more successful than giving Palini leadership, which I’ve tried before and don’t recommend relying too heavily on him!
Carrefour
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
0
4
9
2
8
4
Croatia14
1
2
9
3
8
6
jandal7
0
3
9
2
9
6
knockout
0
3
7
3
10
4
trekbmc
0
4
10
3
7
7
cycleYorkshire
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Louis Meintjes
71
80
77
71
77
76
78
57
61
69
71
74
71
Jonathan Bellis
75
68
78
62
80
71
69
58
74
75
77
68
62
Andreas Stauff
74
53
65
61
74
69
76
65
80
81
59
64
74
Serghei Tvetcov
71
77
75
74
72
71
76
58
72
73
73
64
75
Luke Durbridge
73
58
67
81
73
74
70
53
62
64
68
61
81
Scott Thwaites
73
59
65
61
74
70
76
76
78
76
60
70
61
Emilien Viennet
72
54
67
80
75
75
72
59
55
64
73
65
80
Andrew Fenn
72
53
61
63
75
71
68
79
70
69
72
71
63
Andrew Tennant
77
63
69
78
76
76
77
54
67
68
78
67
77
Matt Rowe
72
50
62
67
80
58
79
67
80
70
61
66
67
Marco Corti
72
61
63
62
74
64
77
59
78
76
66
63
62
Tim Kennaugh
74
77
70
73
71
70
70
54
66
63
72
59
72
Ian Stannard
75
53
55
79
69
70
67
66
57
72
69
61
79
Stelly Robert
67
57
60
79
66
70
68
57
55
55
74
70
79
William Ford
75
68
69
74
71
74
72
58
68
73
80
63
74
Yu Takenouchi
73
58
64
61
72
70
68
74
65
70
67
68
61
Tom Wirtgen
72
71
70
73
71
70
68
65
62
71
72
64
73
George Atkins
77
50
58
55
69
64
60
73
72
66
61
58
55
Michael Woods
68
73
70
64
71
72
68
54
58
61
54
68
65
Gabriel Cullaigh
66
60
65
63
66
67
66
67
71
74
66
67
67
Scott Davies
64
68
66
69
67
68
68
55
61
68
63
65
69
Matthew Teggart
66
62
67
58
69
69
68
68
66
69
53
63
65
Meintjies at 720k wage, curse or blessing for their rankings position?
knockout: Meintjes won’t score as much as his wage suggests so one could say he’s not a blessing for their 2018 rankings position. However, i like that signing a lot. Meintjes is strong enough that cycleYorkshire is not heading directly into the relegation fight while also not strong enough that someone like Dan Martin really pushes them towards the promotion spots and he is young enough that he will have more value for them moving forward after the season when his wage will likely drop a bit too.
AbhishekLFC: Meintjes automatically keeps them safe, like knockout mentioned. He will score well in MO/HI combo races and in the mountains in general. He’s not the most exciting rider but he’s solid point-scorer. Unless cycleYorkshire had promotion hopes this season, he should be a blessing. I’d love to hear what jandal has to say about this one
jandal: I didn’t want to answer this, but you’ve prompted me Abhi! As the others have said: He’s a very strong rider, but the wage is ridiculous and he belongs at Xero. He is a solid buy for them for the future and unfortunately for me, they won’t relegate in part down to his strength. I hope he lets it go to his head and makes them release him.
trekbmc: The fact that they spent so much on a rider who is, while decent, is not a huge scorer (yet) and don’t look like relegation, speaks volumes about what they could’ve done with that 720k spent on a very top guy or two leaders, so I’ll speak to jandal’s happiness and say that while he didn’t shoot himself in the foot, it was maybe a shot to the toe for this season, but long term, it could work out pretty well.
cycleYorkshire
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
5
7
7
7
7
Croatia14
4
4
5
3
10
9
jandal7
6
5
5
6
8
7
knockout
6
5
4
7
8
6
trekbmc
7
4
6
5
9
8
Euskaltel - Elior
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Damiano Caruso
68
69
78
57
76
71
65
54
70
77
75
77
57
Dominique Cornu
74
66
71
80
73
75
73
68
60
72
74
61
80
Moreno Moser
72
53
67
70
73
69
76
62
80
79
63
54
72
Magno Nazaret
68
80
71
65
71
78
75
52
65
72
73
64
65
Romain Zingle
72
69
77
68
74
69
70
66
66
76
74
71
68
Nacer Bouhanni
74
55
63
55
74
69
74
59
80
77
64
58
55
Milos Borisavljevic
68
77
73
74
74
74
75
54
59
65
64
68
74
Juan Jose Lobato del Valle
72
62
67
57
73
72
72
69
77
80
61
67
65
Michael Vingerling
71
55
61
65
72
66
76
68
79
79
57
68
76
Olivier Le Gac
70
69
77
60
73
74
71
52
64
69
74
73
60
Armindo Fonseca
74
54
61
64
74
68
76
60
78
77
63
63
64
Ruben Fernandez
66
75
75
66
72
69
72
57
60
66
72
72
65
Jurgen Van den Broeck
70
77
72
71
69
68
66
56
62
64
72
65
71
Filippo Ganna
71
66
68
73
69
74
64
66
69
72
71
74
75
Enric Mas
68
71
70
67
71
70
71
56
60
71
66
67
67
Benoit Cosnefroy
71
68
70
71
73
74
67
69
69
69
78
74
71
Nicola Conci
70
70
69
70
71
70
71
56
63
67
62
71
70
Alex Aranburu
68
70
70
62
67
75
68
57
68
65
55
64
62
Fabio Jakobsen
67
58
64
59
68
70
66
68
71
72
67
67
69
David Gaudu
70
68
70
65
70
71
67
57
65
63
64
68
65
Léo Vincent
67
68
69
67
72
68
67
65
66
66
64
69
68
Jaime Castrillo
70
66
66
69
70
67
67
55
65
70
71
67
69
Will Euskaltel’s improvement in sprints allow them to keep their heads above the water once again? Or will their youth spending anchor them down?
jandal: Nope. It’s a nice sprint squad for sure but I don’t see it working out together or split up to keep them above the water given the improvement at the bottom this year. But who knows - they’ve defied some expectations before and the Caruso-Cornu-Zingle-Le Gac core is still in place, plus the new signing of Nazaret outside the sprints.
knockout: Yes, the sprinters armada will have a bigger impact than last seasons cobbles armada but that won’t save them. Bouhanni will probably regress to the mean and i don’t think the other sprinters are much quicker than your granny on a bike. If they want to repeat the miracle of staying up that their good leaders like ehm yeah - maybe Nazaret can repeat his surprisingly good 2017 season or Caruso, Zingle and Le Gac can score well…. It’s going to be super tough. Not Azteca tough but still very tough.
AbhishekLFC: If they survive again, it’ll be a managerial masterstroke! They sold themselves really short of leaders with their approach to team building. But hey, they’ve done it before and might just do it again but survival looks more unlikely than ever before.
trekbmc: I kind’ve don’t want to underrate them, because they always seem to do pretty okay, but truth be told, I’m not exactly sure where that comes from, as Nazaret, Cornu and the sprinters will find themselves in a tougher field this year, Moser is a pretty nice rider and I really like their talents, but it’ll be tough.
Euskaltel
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
4
7
0
5
0
Croatia14
5
6
5
1
6
1
jandal7
5
6
6
0
6
1
knockout
3
7
3
0
5
1
trekbmc
6
5
6
0
6
1
Fablok Bank - BGZ
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Erik Mohs
75
56
65
66
73
64
76
63
83
82
53
73
66
Chris Froome
69
69
81
66
75
71
70
50
53
73
67
70
66
Mikhail Ignatiev
79
65
74
79
80
73
75
53
71
81
84
54
79
Andrea Guardini
72
55
64
59
74
69
71
60
80
82
74
60
59
Nicolas Roche
70
76
78
70
75
72
72
57
67
69
69
67
70
Grzegorz Stepniak
72
57
67
64
70
70
75
67
79
79
63
68
73
Pawel Poljanski
66
77
77
67
70
70
76
56
61
71
73
66
67
Ivan Rovny
72
63
76
63
75
73
72
60
69
73
75
64
63
Idan Shapira
67
76
72
63
68
72
76
54
56
77
77
62
63
Noam Cohen
73
60
65
57
71
69
77
57
77
76
62
62
57
Jaka Bostner
66
74
75
65
68
69
68
56
63
74
77
66
65
Roy Goldstein
74
55
61
79
70
72
72
52
58
61
61
56
79
Kamil Zielinski
70
70
74
60
71
67
70
64
70
74
70
68
61
Welle Jallays
75
61
71
75
69
74
73
64
61
63
81
64
75
Daniel Eliad
67
74
71
65
66
72
70
54
59
75
65
67
65
Andrei Nechita
74
63
64
76
73
71
71
71
55
68
66
63
76
Ran Margaliot
70
71
74
62
74
72
68
58
67
65
70
66
62
Emanuel Piaskowy
69
72
72
72
73
70
74
52
54
68
67
62
72
Dmitriy Ignatiev
71
58
69
75
70
72
71
57
56
67
66
67
74
Juraj Sagan
75
60
68
75
73
71
74
56
61
69
74
61
75
Is Fablok in "All or Nothing" mode and are their old leaders good enough to be worth the risk?
knockout: It certainly looks like they are all in with four of their five leaders declining after the season and three of them already for the second or third time. I think they need a good season planning and a bit of luck to promote but it certainly isn't impossible!
jandal: Yes, I think they are all-in at this point: their leaders (bar Roche) will still be leaders next year but not on the same level of course, and a rebuild would be needed to achieve PT 2020 if it doesn’t happen this year. Can it happen? I haven’t done my “expert” prediction yet, but I’m inclined to say yes if sgdanny plans it right.
trekbmc: Fablok’s been honing in on promotion for a while now, always seeming like they have an okay chance and I really think it’s their time now! Of course, nobody but Guardini on their current squad will score points next scoring, but they’ll have a good chance to rebuild from a blank slate and with less super strong teams this season, super sprinting strength, Froome and the awesomeness that is Ignatiev (even declined), has to be a formula for a strong season!
Fablok
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
2
7
9
0
7
6
Croatia14
2
7
9
1
7
9
jandal7
3
8
10
0
7
8
knockout
3
8
9
0
5
8
trekbmc
3
8
10
0
7
8
Generali - EDF
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Primož Roglič
71
80
76
72
75
76
75
66
69
74
72
71
70
Diego Ulissi
76
66
80
62
83
71
72
51
74
75
75
63
62
Edward Theuns
72
67
74
65
76
73
74
78
77
76
64
67
70
Kristjan Koren
73
72
74
78
77
75
71
62
67
66
65
70
78
Elia Viviani
78
60
66
79
71
77
74
60
71
70
73
64
79
Stefan Kung
73
70
73
77
74
72
73
72
63
71
73
78
78
Tim Dees
71
75
72
77
74
76
72
54
60
64
66
62
76
Philip Lavery
69
71
76
64
75
71
68
63
67
77
77
62
64
Rafael Silva
68
65
75
66
75
70
56
63
74
79
66
64
61
Pierre Rolland
70
74
70
77
72
71
76
52
58
68
72
63
77
Rudy Molard
68
71
75
64
73
73
73
65
70
75
73
67
66
Baptiste Planckaert
73
54
65
64
71
72
70
71
77
77
64
62
67
Matthias Krizek
70
74
75
66
72
71
75
52
67
76
75
62
66
Bart De Clercq
71
75
73
70
72
71
75
59
58
72
70
69
68
Cyrile Thièry
72
70
74
66
73
73
70
60
72
73
77
74
65
Gaëtan Bille
73
69
74
73
73
71
73
66
72
75
74
68
77
Nicolae Tanovitchii
72
68
76
60
75
72
71
57
62
71
79
68
60
Marco Canola
70
64
73
69
73
71
70
62
75
76
74
66
69
Antonio Pedrero
67
76
73
65
73
68
71
53
70
71
76
70
65
Jan Ghyselinck
74
61
68
77
75
77
73
61
64
68
74
61
77
Davide Malacarne
67
75
73
70
72
71
73
68
57
69
73
68
67
Luca Sterbini
68
56
66
78
74
73
67
63
57
67
71
65
78
Artem Ovechkin
72
61
70
76
69
74
63
56
61
70
73
63
76
Ben Hermans
77
64
75
71
78
70
71
60
66
73
76
62
71
Robert Jenko
73
56
68
65
72
71
64
73
69
71
53
72
65
Alexandr Kulikovskiy
68
64
70
64
65
72
66
58
71
72
65
67
66
Benjamin Thomas
67
56
65
71
71
68
64
64
70
76
64
65
72
Norman Vahtra
67
58
68
55
69
69
67
69
71
70
66
65
55
Quinten Hermans
71
53
62
64
69
66
59
69
59
67
76
67
66
Has Generali generally invested too much in depth and not enough in leaders?
AbhishekLFC: I don’t think so and they look to be going up this season. Roglic and Ulissi should score a lot of points and their TTT team will likely win everything they start. So, their investment in depth should pay off.
knockout: They certainly invested a lot in their depth - and i think it is too much indeed. However, their leaders are still strong enough to promote and they really need bad planning to avoid promotion so it will likely work out well for them. And most of their depth guys are on great wages so they should be usable for a nice extra income next season - if that is the plan. That said their team idea with a large squad and a TTT focus works well together so it is not really a big issue for them.
jandal: I don’t think it’s too much in depth - it makes them look very good, with sexy riders mostly rather than main stat-heavy workhorses, but I can’t deny that a great leader from here turns them into big title frontrunners.
trekbmc: Jenko isn’t very good, on most teams, you’d just ignore him, but here he sticks out as a huge waste of 50k, because every other guy is so awesome! I love this so much, though in terms of rankings position, maybe dropping 4-6 guys in exchange for a 200-300k leader would’ve been a decision that would’ve earned them a lot more points, as it looks like there’ll be some wasted RDs here, then again, these guys are so cool and capable of scoring, then there’s Roglic, Uliisi and Theuns just to be really really nice scorers, I’ve never seen so much green in one team, they better win the division.
Generali
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
2
5
9
9
Croatia14
7
7
1
5
10
8
jandal7
5
9
2
6
9
7
knockout
7
9
1
6
8
7
trekbmc
6
8
3
5
8
10
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
John Degenkolb
76
61
69
67
73
71
74
72
84
81
70
61
67
Adam Blythe
76
54
66
68
76
71
77
82
76
73
72
72
71
Ion Izagirre
71
74
80
77
73
72
69
54
60
64
69
70
77
Pedro Merino Criado
73
58
69
57
72
69
79
58
78
80
57
68
57
Geert Van der Sanden
73
60
65
59
71
69
77
67
78
79
64
76
59
Ramon Domene
73
50
57
57
73
68
71
76
74
75
62
61
57
Roy Jans
76
53
74
63
74
73
65
68
74
74
68
70
66
Arnold Jeannesson
68
76
71
67
70
70
69
53
62
73
66
73
67
Pierre Latour
67
74
72
66
76
74
75
52
64
72
79
72
70
Nejc Kosic
72
58
66
61
74
70
67
77
59
64
78
67
61
Jon Ander Insausti
70
53
64
66
76
73
64
77
57
66
66
70
66
Alexis Gougeard
70
62
77
67
73
71
71
54
59
68
77
61
67
Marc Soler
68
74
70
72
74
72
74
54
54
65
60
61
75
Jan Oelerich
74
60
72
64
74
69
73
73
64
65
73
65
64
Gediminas Bagdonas
74
60
66
73
70
72
69
73
66
68
77
62
72
Jan Brockhoff
78
62
68
65
72
75
70
63
62
72
63
68
68
Juan Abenhamar Gallego Martin
77
62
68
66
68
62
72
68
62
60
80
75
66
Ivan García Cortina
70
64
65
68
72
71
66
70
71
70
70
72
68
Nurbolat Kulimbetov
69
63
71
59
70
68
64
54
62
68
54
64
59
Artem Nych
73
64
65
65
70
66
68
65
63
71
78
69
67
Can Iberia get back to the PT with Izagirre and their flat strength?
knockout: Yes, i think so. Grieg has shown last season how far two top of the division leaders can push you and Iberia adds a third scoring option in Izagirre. Promotion material.
jandal: Yes, for sure. I love me some sexy depth, but looking at that top 7 plus the extra cobbles lieutenants I can’t look past them to bounce back up.
AbhishekLFC: Even with the way Izagirre performed last season? They’ll be in contention I think, but it’s not a given for me.
trekbmc: Izagirre isn’t scoring anything I think, that acceleration stat is just way way too low, so their two awesome riders, Degenkolb and Blythe, will need to be racking up almost 2400 points (based on last season) to promote I think, which would be matching EBH and Wisnio last season, can they do it? Maybe, but I think it’ll be tough, especially as sprints are often harder to dominate than hills or mountains. Otherwise, Jans, Insausti and Gougeard will have the score the majority of the remaining points I think, so while I think they definitely have a shot, Dege and Blythe are going to have to huge a big season.
AbhishekLFC: They were promotion candidates last season and just missed out. They’ve gained more than they’ve lost this season and Keizer (ughh) is a sure bet to be up there with Pluchkin in stage races having a high TT and otherwise. They should be in and around promotion spots for sure.
jandal: Ah, your version of my Meintjes question I guess? Yes, I think they are. Brenes is a big overperformer and could do very nicely when separated from Keizer or give the very good Dutchie a top lieutenant in the division. Add in a solid scorer in Goss, a more than decent puncheur in Aziz, a boring but handy cobbled leader, some very nice domestiques and the subtle potential MO/HI scorer or great domestique that is John-Lee Augustyn, and it’s a promotion-quality squad. Not a surefire hit, but they’re in the conversation for sure.
knockout: Keizer is indeed a safe bet to perform well but he is the only rider I’m really convinced. I don't trust Goss to score as well as in 2017, I don't expect Anuar Aziz to score more than in 2017 and Maes and Brenes are not top of the card leader in PCT as well. They 100% will be in the promotion fight but i could see them coming short again.
trekbmc: Yes, definitely! Keizer is a big scorer, Goss is always solid, Anuar Aziz should benefit from the small puncheur decline and Maes gives them a solid card on another terrain, they’ve got good hills and mountain depth as well and Ji is really cool! It just seems like a winning formula to me, though I did almost predict them to automatically promote last season, so please take this with a pinch of salt.
Indosat
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
6
4
6
6
7
Croatia14
8
5
6
3
8
2
jandal7
8
6
7
5
4
2
knockout
8
4
6
4
4
9
trekbmc
8
7
8
6
6
8
Kraftwerk Man Machine
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Mark Cavendish
73
57
65
66
74
71
80
70
83
81
60
65
76
Aleksandar Flügel
69
72
81
65
79
67
69
59
68
74
71
80
65
Wesley Kreder
73
64
75
63
75
71
77
66
77
78
71
67
63
Marco Haller
72
61
65
56
72
71
76
58
80
79
66
64
71
Lucas Schädlich
70
54
64
80
70
71
73
62
70
76
64
67
80
Willi Willwohl
73
53
64
56
71
67
78
65
79
78
61
64
56
Daniel Paulus
69
74
77
64
71
68
73
56
62
71
73
67
64
Dietmar Mehr-Wenige
74
66
78
63
74
69
73
54
66
67
73
66
63
Westley Gough
76
59
64
74
69
71
75
52
76
76
60
55
74
Jocelin Maillet
64
77
70
60
69
76
69
51
55
77
65
65
60
Florian Scheit
66
72
76
58
72
71
69
50
64
71
77
66
58
Sang Hong Park
72
61
72
67
73
70
73
66
75
76
61
67
70
Roman Maikin
73
61
68
63
71
72
70
63
76
77
62
66
68
Michael Kurth
73
60
64
68
74
71
70
75
73
73
65
76
68
Alexandre Shushemoin
68
74
75
62
75
71
73
60
56
72
64
67
62
Gennadiy Tatarinov
69
75
74
63
71
71
68
57
65
73
76
63
63
Nico Denz
71
72
74
67
70
69
69
65
63
71
69
65
71
Takero Terasaki
70
65
71
63
72
70
72
69
73
75
67
63
67
Max Walsleben
72
59
67
67
72
68
61
74
68
70
70
72
70
Nils Politt
71
63
65
76
68
71
70
60
59
65
68
66
74
Martyn Irvine
73
53
64
74
68
69
65
55
72
74
62
63
75
Benjamin Brkic
71
67
68
67
70
68
64
65
67
69
61
67
69
Have Kraftwerk made enough changes to not be midtable once again?
jandal: No, I don’t think so. The depth behind Cavendish (please make this mean Kreder gets free roles sometimes) and Flugel he’s created is no doubt very useful, but, outside of Kreder in a punchy sprint or tough race and Haller, I don’t see them doing much but add to the leader’s scoring. However Flugel should enjoy a return to being one of the top puncheurs after Eddy and Tejay ruined the fun last year, and the addition of Schadlich is a welcome source of points, if not loads of them. Final option for them is Maillet, who should dominate mountain breakaways and rake in lots of points. He’s awesome. But I don’t see it adding up to a promotion tilt - thought then again in this field if we see Cav amongst the top, the leadout in full swing, secondary sprinters firing, Flugel battling Lutsenko and Kinoshita and Schadlich and Maillet performing then who knows? Certainly they can aim for upper mid table and see where it takes them.
knockout: Changes? I don't see any changes for them that will have an impact on the ranking positions. Gough could be a nice upgrade to their leadout, Maillet is an awesome steal and Shushemoin will be a great guy to watch in breaks but the team was too busy overpaying for former Wiesenhof guys that can speak German and didn’t improve.
trekbmc: Yeah, I don’t see heaps of changes! I do like Maillet though, he’s just a really awesome rider, I hope he joins some breaks in the mountains, but yeah, not heaps to say, as Cav and Flugel should lead the way to another place right in the middle, which isn’t a bad place to be.
Kraftwerk
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
8
9
1
3
3
Croatia14
3
7
9
1
5
2
jandal7
3
8
9
1
6
3
knockout
4
8
9
2
4
2
trekbmc
4
8
9
2
6
4
Kulczyk - DMTEX
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Jérôme Baugnies
78
57
72
62
80
73
73
80
65
73
74
65
62
Rafael Valls
69
79
75
72
78
77
78
56
62
72
69
66
72
Pierre Paolo Penasa
70
79
73
70
75
72
77
50
57
76
68
64
70
Enrico Barbin
69
68
78
63
75
73
70
57
71
76
65
67
63
Anthony Lavoine
73
60
60
62
71
64
77
65
80
78
62
79
62
Marcello Pavarin
70
69
76
56
74
69
66
56
72
76
72
68
56
Sam Bennett
71
53
63
57
74
68
80
61
79
79
61
60
57
Ryan Mullen
75
62
70
78
75
74
72
62
60
70
61
64
78
Mektel Eyob
68
76
76
66
74
69
73
55
62
66
72
73
66
Jelle Vanendert
71
71
77
70
76
73
72
63
55
71
74
60
70
Sebastian Langeveld
75
55
71
67
77
69
71
75
62
72
75
75
67
Mattia Pozzo
67
76
70
58
70
72
74
53
59
75
64
72
58
Pawel Cieslik
64
75
71
68
72
73
70
55
61
68
73
68
63
Jakub Kaczmarek
71
66
74
73
72
74
70
69
63
69
68
67
74
Kevin Fouquet
74
58
67
65
74
71
68
75
68
64
76
65
65
Marcel Barth
73
53
58
77
71
66
66
59
72
77
60
66
77
Polychronis Tzortzakis
70
61
63
75
74
69
70
55
75
74
62
60
76
Kristof Goddaert
72
52
60
76
70
72
69
68
67
66
63
58
76
Kamil Gradek
72
64
72
73
73
71
72
69
62
75
70
61
73
Eryk Laton
70
60
64
66
69
70
73
62
72
74
73
66
71
Michal Paluta
65
61
66
61
66
65
65
54
70
71
61
64
69
Should some of Kulczyk’s depth on other terrains gone to support Baugnies instead?
knockout: I would have liked that, yes. But Langeveld is an excellent lieutenant and Fouquet is good too. As long as Kaczmarek, Goddaert and Gradek ride the cobbles too, it’s solid enough to not be a major flaw to their team even though a bit more wouldn’t hurt either.
jandal: I really like what Booker has done with his team, and Langeveld being Langeveld he’ll be a top lieutenant anyway. But yes, it could have been nice to give Baugnies some support, but aside from inflated leader wages (through no fault of their own) I can’t see much targets for culling. You could pour 150k from the TT depth into going after Potts, Lagab or Marzuki, or three 73-75 riders of less pedigree, but I actually like them except Goddaert, who is not worth his wage given the team he rides for. I also think Baugnies having just one lieutenant and one “top domestique” is fine given the top cobbles squads around, where he can bring one guy to the selection in Langeveld and function well. Strava was the greatest thing to ever hit the cobbles but being a maverick duo is fine.
AbhishekLFC: Langeveld and Fouquet are good enough support I think. They have useful riders on the team and will score points on every terrain. Possibly a best promoted team candidate.
trekbmc: I’m just going to say this, I don’t get the Kulczyk hype, I mean, I love the team itself, but I think aside from Baugnies (who’ll be up against Vanspeybrouck and Blythe), they don’t really have any points scorers, I mean, Valls and Penasa are nice (and I find it hilarious that Valls is there) but there are at least 15 better climbers, Barbin, Lavoine, Bennett, Mullen, Langeveld, all cool riders, who’d be excellent in CT and are pretty cool in PCT but how much are they scoring altogether? But to answer the actual question, I think that more cobbled guys behind Baugnies could’ve meant they got some more guys in on cobbled points, like Strava tended to do, I remember a few of their weaker cobblists scored past their means due to that and I think there’d be more potential scoring there than in their weaker climbers or sprinters, though it’s a tough call.
jandal: Interesting argument trek. I definitely see your point - Baugnies isn’t going to come 11th like 2016 in this field without the massively amazing Strava lads behind him, and they won’t touch on the depth scoring of Strava either. I guess their problem is maybe aside from Baugnies they have a host of 100-250 point scorers, but not enough meaty guaranteed top 30 scoring to life them away from any form of relegation fighting. The likes of Valls, Penasa, Mullen, Lavoine and Barbin. I think they’ll stay up due to that, but as much as I (like you) love the team, I can see your point, and as much as the depth can save them it can also doom them to the lower half of the table.
And yes, Valls and Penasa is just… weird!
Kulczyk
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
4
4
7
6
4
Croatia14
6
6
3
6
3
1
jandal7
7
7
5
8
5
6
knockout
7
7
5
7
4
5
trekbmc
6
4
5
8
6
4
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Tom Van Asbroeck
75
53
71
66
75
72
79
74
80
78
74
68
74
Kenneth Vanbilsen
78
50
69
63
80
74
75
80
72
71
72
61
63
Fernando Gaviria
74
63
71
65
72
75
78
70
79
82
68
70
71
Zico Waeytens
70
71
80
65
72
70
68
67
66
73
76
75
65
Manuel Senni
71
77
73
74
76
79
76
59
65
72
66
73
74
Matteo Pelucchi
74
56
68
65
74
70
75
62
79
77
68
68
65
Gianni Moscon
70
72
77
66
74
76
74
53
58
71
70
69
70
Niccolo Bonifazio
77
50
65
55
67
73
70
56
78
78
58
72
68
Daniele Dall'Oste
70
76
76
67
71
74
75
56
58
71
73
71
67
Josef Cerny
71
70
75
68
75
67
66
61
74
79
74
66
71
Kevin Peeters
72
52
62
64
71
68
75
68
79
77
59
64
64
Stijn Joseph
74
60
66
64
76
70
70
76
66
70
72
77
64
Sam Oomen
69
75
72
70
74
73
73
56
63
67
71
67
73
Louis Verhelst
71
56
73
65
72
69
68
74
62
68
67
71
65
Jakub Mareczko
72
53
60
56
70
71
77
50
76
75
61
65
73
Laurens De Plus
70
71
72
62
71
70
68
57
59
68
63
64
63
Wout Van Aert
73
63
65
68
70
71
71
66
64
68
69
75
77
Jenthe Biermans
73
55
58
64
67
71
63
66
66
66
72
67
66
Stan Dewulf
60
65
63
60
58
61
64
65
63
61
60
57
58
Daniel Savini
65
63
64
64
60
62
62
59
63
60
59
59
55
How good is Gaviria this season already? jandal: He is good. How good? Good good. He’s already got great backups, good versatility, ISN’T EVEN MAXED and is a very good sprinter in his own right. Ridiculous. My main concern is his ACC when leading out TVA - not quite Debesay and/or Afewerki dropping Van Heerden every race, but it could be an issue. His 79SPR means he’s not a top scorer, but he’s already a better Van der Sande, and look how VDS overperformed in 2016! I really like him already. I say it again: Ridiculous!
trekbmc: I’m honestly a little bit confused about how somebody this good isn’t maxed, awesome acceleration, strong hill, strong res, decent flat, not even a bad cobble stat, he’s going to be a really nice scorer in addition to Van Asbroeck already and he’ll get better next year, I do think the trick with him will be keeping him away from Van Asbroeck though, I’m not sure how well they’ll gel. Anyway, I’m not going to try to match jandal’s level of hype, Gaviria’s awesomeness, Van Asbroeck, Vanbilsen, Dall’Oste being Dall’Oste ad lots of break points and whatever Waeytens can do will will likely see them finish somewhere safe before Gaviria and Bonifazio maxing turns this team into something insane in terms of flat classics!
knockout: I don't want to be in the position of Ollfardh because it must have been very difficult to plan to maximise the points of both Gaviria and Van Asbroeck as they are so similar. I’m trying to remain cautious about any Gaviria predictions because those could look very foolish at the end of the season but i also think that he will be a great scorer already. I would not be too surprised if he ends up a better scorer than Vanbilsen already this season.
Lierse
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
2
7
7
7
1
6
Croatia14
3
6
7
7
1
6
jandal7
4
5
7
8
1
6
knockout
3
6
6
6
0
6
trekbmc
3
7
7
7
0
6
Meiji - JR East
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Tomohiro Kinoshita
73
72
81
66
80
77
73
59
68
77
73
71
66
Ki Ho Choi
71
80
74
75
77
76
79
63
59
68
68
71
74
Chen Shikai
72
81
71
76
74
76
78
55
57
66
59
69
76
Kenji Itami
75
63
61
63
71
67
78
64
80
82
50
53
63
Kazushige Kuboki
73
65
73
75
75
74
71
59
77
77
70
65
78
Tomohiro Hayakawa
73
63
65
50
75
68
76
57
79
79
75
73
50
Shiki Kuroeda
72
63
70
52
76
77
82
75
76
73
67
71
63
Tomoyuki Iino
68
77
73
68
73
72
73
54
59
67
72
65
68
Saya Kuroeda
72
53
62
67
70
71
74
75
72
78
63
64
71
King Lok Cheung
75
59
67
77
72
74
69
57
63
66
64
72
77
Yusuke Hatanaka
69
70
75
62
71
67
65
59
64
71
70
69
62
Kouhei Uchima
70
68
74
51
75
66
70
53
72
74
67
64
55
Yoshimitsu Hiratsuka
67
77
74
63
73
74
77
51
50
60
63
61
63
Yudai Arashiro
80
60
64
62
70
67
72
67
68
74
78
68
66
Genki Yamamoto
70
56
65
58
70
67
76
56
76
76
59
60
59
Wataru Mutsumine
68
68
75
64
71
69
67
58
62
69
63
70
64
Sho Hatsuyama
67
74
73
65
68
67
71
54
62
69
61
68
65
Yamato Shirota
68
73
73
58
68
67
71
55
63
76
71
58
58
Hiroshi Tsubaki
67
74
70
63
68
74
72
60
55
65
64
64
63
Ryoma Nonaka
72
68
70
70
71
73
70
62
68
74
64
70
75
Jingbiao Zhao
70
58
64
65
66
70
65
58
72
77
56
70
74
Jiankun Liu
68
62
66
63
71
65
69
62
73
74
64
67
65
Atsushi Oka
67
65
66
70
68
68
62
64
71
72
67
64
73
Rei Onodera
69
63
66
71
70
69
65
61
65
68
61
67
68
Than Tung Huynh
65
59
66
65
67
71
57
60
70
69
74
67
68
Is Meiji going to enjoy greater success with EBH and TVG out of Kinoshita’s way now?
jandal: I mean, yes! Of course they will - the Japanese star will be one of the top two hilly contenders alongside Lutsenko after a brief interlude by the stars. Apart from some raids on relegated Compal riders (including bringing in “better Ji” Choi to bolster their boring stage racing squad) their team has stayed much the same, selling some less needed riders (includes Zaini ), and progressing (and some maxing) their talents - the Kuroeda brothers should have their first year as minor scorers in the cobbles, especially freshly maxed Shiki, who brings a very nice skillset to the table. Is it enough to mount a promotion charge? Yes, I think so. Meiji have spent long enough out of the PT.
knockout: I think that Meiji is probably the team that profits the most from having both of them out of the division and think they came closer to promotion than they were last season.
AbhishekLFC: Pretty much summed up by jandal and knockout. Kinoshita should be back dominating the hills. Not sure they’re assured of fighting for promotion even then though.
trekbmc: I mentioned Kinoshita as a possible winner of the division with EBH and TVG gone and I’m sticking by that, the Kuroeda’s are awesome too as I’ve already mentioned. I think where the balance for Meiji will come from is if Shikai and Choi can score as much as climbers with the same mountain stat as they don’t have heaps of acceleration and if Itami is hurt by the sprinting strength in the division. Overall, I think it’ll work out fine and they’re in for a very nice season!
Meiji
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
8
7
2
3
5
Croatia14
6
9
5
2
3
3
jandal7
6
8
7
5
3
7
knockout
6
8
6
2
1
6
trekbmc
7
9
7
3
4
5
Minions
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Rigoberto Úran
72
82
74
78
75
81
77
55
55
71
67
62
78
Ruben Zepuntke
72
55
69
65
79
72
64
81
72
64
66
68
65
Xavier Quevedo
69
71
78
65
72
72
73
56
65
75
69
72
65
Niels Albert
75
64
69
57
76
74
72
78
63
68
79
83
57
Yasmani Martinez
69
76
72
73
73
71
76
51
67
75
75
62
73
Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg
70
69
68
78
71
71
69
63
60
76
67
64
78
Damion Drapac
71
51
53
60
70
65
76
64
80
79
66
77
60
Bert-Jan Lindeman
73
55
64
60
72
69
66
76
74
76
64
61
60
Chad Haga
70
75
72
76
73
70
72
57
64
67
70
71
77
Bjorn Selander
71
68
76
63
74
71
70
63
70
76
71
61
63
Edwin Avila
70
60
66
60
73
69
75
54
78
77
61
60
60
Carlos Alexandre Manarelli
72
53
59
57
71
65
73
61
79
79
57
66
57
Farzad Khodayari
66
75
73
62
71
72
72
52
64
72
72
80
62
Leandro Marcos
74
62
73
63
71
65
70
74
65
70
73
64
65
Nico Schinker
70
60
63
58
71
65
74
61
77
76
58
62
74
Chris Barton
65
73
65
75
71
73
73
61
59
66
68
74
75
Andzs Flaksis
70
53
65
56
75
70
66
76
61
62
70
72
56
Laureano Rosas
72
59
65
75
72
70
73
51
70
74
55
61
76
Odd Christian Eiking
69
67
73
64
73
72
69
54
66
71
71
67
66
Kenny De Haes
71
50
66
60
71
66
66
73
62
74
69
59
60
Clenne Morvan Moulingui
70
53
70
50
67
68
51
73
63
67
63
70
50
Cayetano Sarmiento
65
76
66
54
70
74
70
58
51
66
76
78
54
Jay Major
70
50
65
57
71
69
64
67
73
74
62
65
64
Tareq Esmaeli
64
72
70
57
67
75
71
66
62
69
72
74
57
Shaquille Sinclair
68
57
61
67
69
69
66
55
74
73
60
67
68
Will the Minion’s shift from hills to cobbles pay off? jandal: Tough to say, as one overrated overhyped leader goes, another one comes. I think they’re in some potential trouble because Zepuntke may not bring in ze punkte as they are hoping, and if they’re hoping to be Strava I don’t see it happening. The domestiques make it a nice enough cobbles squad all the same. I think the 400k+ could have been re-appropriated and spent elsewhere. Let’s not forget Quevedo, a nice hilly rider who hopefully can stay on his bike better thanks to the mandatory training wheels the MGUCI forces everyone to use.
knockout: I don't think so. It’s still Urans team and they depend on him to score. Their cobbles team is rich in quantity but lacks some quality at the top. With the strengthening of the division i see them sliding down into relegation trouble.
AbhishekLFC: They’re pretty much stuck at status quo in my eyes. Zepuntke isn’t a proven high scorer on the cobbles and unfortunately the division has seen a massive influx in that department. Very likely the German ends up with a Betancourt like season.
trekbmc: I like to think the Minions dropped Betancourt with the intention of playing the Summerhill game, where you get one awesome leader and hope he can stave off relegation, but then realised Nemiroff had beaten them to the punch and picked up Zepuntke. He should totally be bad, but so should Drapac, so I’m just confused at this point. Overall, the shift to Zepuntke won’t make a huge difference in my eyes, how will it end, I have absolutely no clue if they relegate or finish mid table.
Minions
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
4
5
7
6
4
Croatia14
7
4
5
8
5
3
jandal7
8
3
6
5
5
2
knockout
8
5
2
4
4
3
trekbmc
9
5
6
6
5
1
Netia - Vónin
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Michal Kwiatkowski
72
78
79
70
74
76
75
68
67
75
73
69
75
Maxime Vantomme
73
55
64
64
76
65
79
70
82
78
67
64
64
Kristian Dyrnes
68
72
78
61
73
73
70
54
65
77
78
74
66
Lasse Norman Hansen
77
59
65
77
74
73
70
56
73
80
72
67
79
Matteo Rabottini
70
74
76
65
74
73
68
54
67
68
65
64
65
Pawel Bernas
76
61
75
66
75
71
68
62
70
73
82
71
65
Kristian Sobota
72
54
60
67
74
65
76
61
78
78
58
61
67
Adrian Honkisz
67
68
76
62
74
71
70
53
63
69
64
69
62
Przemyslaw Kasperkiewicz
72
66
71
70
71
73
68
76
59
65
76
67
72
Ignas Konovalovas
70
67
75
74
72
74
69
64
60
73
75
60
74
Adam Stachowiak
73
62
75
61
71
67
64
62
68
71
75
69
63
Pawel Franczak
72
62
63
57
72
68
73
60
76
76
63
76
71
Gunnar Dahl-Olsen
73
54
68
72
66
77
66
74
59
69
69
65
69
Morten Reckweg
76
52
64
74
76
71
72
67
68
72
75
71
74
Iliyan Kolev
72
52
61
60
69
68
63
73
59
66
70
64
66
Kamil Malecki
70
67
67
69
67
72
64
70
70
70
68
72
68
Nicolay Cherkasov
75
69
69
66
69
70
64
61
65
69
62
66
66
Milan Menten
67
64
70
67
69
73
69
70
65
66
61
56
67
Jóanis Albert Nielsen
71
54
66
66
67
71
71
68
69
71
64
67
70
Szymon Rekita
69
56
60
73
66
69
69
62
67
67
62
72
72
Is PT 2020 a realistic goal for the team or will relegation destroy those plans?
AbhishekLFC: Relegation? You mean that thing they’ve been predicted to face every season and again this time? Uh, don’t think that’s likely, again. They should be safe in the PCT, and should be a few spots better off than last season. At least that’s what this rookie is predicting. As far as PT 2020 goes, that will depend on getting in a leader and support on at least another terrain next season.
jandal: I think the most likely end for Netia is neither of those things, but it’s a fine balancing act with Kaspa and Pedersen maxing among others. I don’t see relegation on the horizon (but who knows?) and I could see a promotion push next season if they can manage their wages well, and get the right people in. PT 2020 with the maxing of their cobbles duo would be a dream. I can’t wait for the discussions before next transfers about what direction they take to achieve it (or if there’s yet another talent who catches trek’s eye). Not to mention maxed Veyhe next year, that’s a few rankings spots gained already.
knockout: Normally this should be the final year of relegation trouble as the team should be ready for the next step in 2019. I don't think PT 2020 will be the goal although it could be possible if they happen to get enough training money to turn Kwiatek into a skyborg. Relegation could destroy their plans and - as much as i hate to say this - while i believed last season that they will be safe by a small margin I see them in much bigger danger this season..
trekbmc: I’ve written enough about relegation already in other places I think, I’m not writing it off, but I think the additions of LNH, Dyrnes, Kono, Cherkasov and Bernas and Kaspa improving will mean we’re doing a little better than we were last year when we barely survived. As for promotion next year, it’s a dream as it’d really help with talents, but a tough one to make come true, we’d need to excel in our goals this year to train Kwiat, Kaspa and Pedersen need to turn out decent despite still being level 4 and we need to find a proper replacement for Vantomme and that’s without messing up our wages, so it likely won’t happen as I hope. (and btw Jandal, Veyhe won’t be maxed quite yet) but that’s next year and this time round I think we’re just going to rely on flats and hills again and just drift through to a low table finish.
How many puncheurs are too many for Nordstrom? jandal: Dowsett was surely one too many, Pellaud is a nice legacy rider and important to the manager so it’s not necessary but he could be culled too seeing what use he brings. Take out the ridiculously-waged De la Cruz and it’s 535-630k you have depending on if you took out Pellaud. You never paid for dowsett so you never needed Pedersen (sorry trek), bada bing bada boom you have a million euros to give to Lutsenko for a proper top puncheur or to spend elsewhere (Dombo push with less puncheurs? ) to craft a proper squad. So it might only be two, or take out more for even more fun! P.S. Hindsight is wonderful, that was just theoretical
knockout: I’m counting 10 guys who should be part of hilly races: Pichon, Dowsett, Villella, Andersen, Diggle, Pellaud, Gaimon, Piccoli, Rybakov and Durasek. That is plenty but could be reasonable if they were varied enough. But the main issue for me is that all those puncheurs are way too similar. Not a single one has more than 72FL or 72MO or 72 HI or 72CB and only one has more than 72TT (Durasek with 74TT). So basically Nordstrom has ten riders that fill exactly the same niche. More variation in type of riders would be helpful or a reduction to perhaps six or seven of these puncheurs makes sense as the team has more riders who could be very useful in different kinds of hilly races: Boivin for races like Tour Down Under, Gaspar for more difficult profiles, Smukulis for hillyish races with lots of flats and Van Keirsbulck and Nic Hamilton as domestiques. The team has a lot of nice riders but race planning was clearly an afterthought during transfers.
AbhishekLFC: How do they plan to effectively use so many punchers? And most are so similar, they’ll end up tripping each other! And who’ll score on the other terrains? Van Keirsbulck, Boivin and De La Cruz do not really inspire a lot of confident point-scoring surety.
Nordstrom
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
7
3
3
1
5
Croatia14
4
9
3
4
1
4
jandal7
4
8
4
5
1
2
knockout
4
8
3
3
0
4
trekbmc
5
7
6
5
2
2
Novatek - Panarmenian.net
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Dan Holloway
78
62
69
71
77
77
78
65
80
82
69
66
71
Maurice Schreurs
70
69
81
67
76
72
71
62
71
74
69
66
66
Fabio Duarte
68
80
68
75
74
76
78
52
62
73
67
61
75
Domenik Klemme
71
74
80
67
74
70
73
54
66
66
59
62
67
Jesse Sergent
79
65
69
80
69
74
71
53
61
51
70
59
80
Aleksandr Serebriakov
74
54
61
64
73
67
79
60
80
77
57
62
72
Michael Ford
63
52
55
81
66
64
62
59
73
73
56
59
81
Artur Grigrian
68
76
71
72
72
68
71
50
56
73
62
56
72
Kirill Pozdnyakov
72
67
73
65
72
71
70
65
75
74
70
67
71
Andrea Pasqualon
71
66
74
59
71
72
73
58
72
73
67
66
58
Julien Vermote
75
54
70
70
74
71
66
74
68
72
73
66
73
Mihran Avetisyan
66
74
74
65
69
68
70
57
62
73
66
64
58
Maxim Pokidov
68
71
73
72
69
69
71
54
72
73
68
66
71
Vyacheslav Kuznetsov
76
63
70
66
75
73
69
69
72
75
76
70
66
Yoann Bagot
68
76
73
65
74
69
69
51
58
64
71
61
65
Chu Thien Sinelobov
60
76
67
65
65
65
71
51
57
67
84
72
65
Jiri Hudecek
68
73
74
72
71
66
68
54
53
60
67
70
72
Varsham Darbinyan
68
58
65
62
69
70
61
73
72
70
64
67
65
Felix Grossschartner
66
71
72
66
70
71
70
50
61
68
67
67
68
Tadej Logar
66
71
71
56
65
67
63
54
67
69
62
68
56
Mamyr Stash
69
56
63
66
66
69
64
67
72
73
72
65
74
Nikita Razumov
67
62
67
70
70
65
66
56
64
66
65
64
70
Andrey Prostokishin
68
66
68
66
68
68
63
55
64
66
68
67
66
Edgar Stepanyan
69
60
63
66
67
67
68
55
65
70
65
65
69
Is Novatek looking to emulate Berg with their duos of good leaders for most terrains?
jandal: Or Philips? I don’t know, you’d have to ask Selwink about that. Certainly it’s a similar style. If they all have a good season they could push to emulate Berg and promote, but unfortunately Ford and to a lesser extent Sergent look like PCT flops based on last season, as did Serebriakov. Duarte and Holloway were a deadly duo for them last season but the former may find 500+ points a tough ask to repeat. I really don’t know what to make of this team - they could push for top 10, or finish mid-table again. I only see Schreurs to an extent and Holloway as safe scorers, the others could range a lot.
knockout: It’s a similar strategy but it also is one of the most basic strategies to build a squad that can compete on nearly all terrains and i would not dare to call it emulating their team. I also don't see them pushing for a top ten finish.
AbhishekLFC: Us? That’s pushing it a bit at this level! I don’t think they’ll emulate Berg but they could definitely improve from last season. Schreurs could turn out to be a shrewd investment with the PT puncher scene having lost it’s superstars.
jandal: I meant emulating your CT squad
Novatek
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
7
1
8
2
Croatia14
5
8
6
2
8
5
jandal7
5
7
7
1
7
2
knockout
5
6
6
1
5
2
trekbmc
7
8
8
1
7
2
Philips - Continental
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Lahcen Saber
75
62
68
64
74
72
78
76
81
79
63
68
70
Sergio Luis Henao Montoya
70
82
71
71
75
79
77
51
58
73
70
62
71
Rui Costa
70
71
80
76
73
72
72
61
69
72
66
63
76
Remco Te Brake
75
56
64
61
74
72
80
66
79
76
65
74
75
Ramunas Navardauskas
75
60
75
76
74
74
76
58
75
70
74
72
77
Alexander Krieger
71
58
62
55
71
74
75
63
79
79
62
68
55
Jan Dieteren
67
70
77
58
75
70
68
51
63
66
80
73
58
Rob Ruijgh
69
75
72
67
73
72
71
64
61
75
71
64
67
Wout Poels
68
74
68
72
78
78
77
61
56
69
68
73
72
Jaoa Costa
66
71
75
57
68
69
68
54
65
73
75
72
57
Jarlinson Pantano Gómez
66
79
71
54
73
74
74
51
50
68
63
68
54
David Per
75
68
69
72
70
72
69
74
70
73
67
71
71
Ronan Van Zandbeek
73
58
69
76
71
71
72
64
61
69
75
73
76
Christoph Mai
67
77
70
63
67
75
74
50
52
60
55
63
63
Lotto Petrus
68
54
69
74
70
68
66
54
63
65
74
64
74
Ha Jeon Jung
65
64
72
59
68
70
66
64
62
67
65
63
60
Riccardo Minali
67
52
57
56
69
70
69
59
73
73
62
73
64
Patrick Müller
67
61
71
62
68
67
66
68
63
64
68
60
62
Jonas Bokeloh
66
61
67
60
66
66
64
62
71
70
61
69
64
Lennard Hofstede
68
64
68
61
68
67
66
61
60
67
71
70
61
Piet Allegaert
68
56
63
65
67
70
59
67
60
70
67
65
66
Among Henao, Costa and Saber, whose performances will be most influential in deciding Philips’s fate in the PCT this season?
knockout: For me it is Saber. Both Henao and Costa are probably relatively predictable as they are known packages where you know quite well what they can do and what they can’t and how good they are in comparison to the division. However, Saber is an unknown in PCT. He is a surprise package to me that could be a big bust or a great performer and that is why he is most influential to their fate.
jandal: I absolutely agree with that - Costa has a little bit of variance depending on (PT)HC bands Abhi picked and if they have hilly stage races or not but really he and Henao have straightforward planning to do and not a lot of variance potential looking at their stats. And for the reasons above, Saber could be very very good or meh - I’m inclined to the former!
Phillips
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
7
3
4
6
Croatia14
8
4
5
2
4
10
jandal7
8
6
6
5
3
8
knockout
8
6
6
4
2
8
trekbmc
9
7
7
3
4
7
Podium Ambition
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Caleb Ewan
75
62
71
60
73
71
80
70
83
81
63
71
73
Andrew Talansky
71
79
77
72
75
76
77
56
59
69
63
66
72
Geraint Thomas
75
51
60
63
75
70
69
79
74
78
71
63
63
Simon Yates
74
70
77
68
77
70
73
52
75
80
74
64
71
Ricki Nelson
72
55
60
56
70
64
79
64
81
81
53
61
72
Marcus Burghardt
75
68
68
60
74
70
68
80
65
69
70
61
60
Julian Alaphilippe
72
66
73
62
74
69
81
65
77
77
75
73
64
Momchil Robov
71
72
76
66
72
73
70
50
69
71
76
66
66
Darren Matthews
72
61
66
70
70
67
71
75
76
76
74
66
74
Borislav Ivanov
69
76
74
63
72
75
75
50
58
68
77
69
63
Martin Grashev
68
72
69
64
73
72
68
75
65
73
65
63
64
Adam De Vos
68
73
73
66
73
72
73
59
62
67
70
73
68
Jyme Bridges
74
64
72
66
72
71
73
71
71
71
71
65
60
Logan Owen
70
65
67
62
69
69
70
73
63
71
65
73
64
Hayato Okamoto
67
62
65
67
71
71
66
61
71
71
63
70
70
Dobrin Lilovski
65
64
70
65
63
67
70
54
62
67
65
70
69
Christopher Lawless
67
61
69
58
67
65
65
66
66
67
66
68
58
Kim Le Court
66
66
69
59
61
67
65
62
63
62
72
69
60
Ryan Felgate
66
59
63
67
65
67
65
60
68
69
63
66
68
Kristian Vanderpool
63
64
63
68
58
57
56
60
60
63
59
62
69
Drew Morey
65
64
65
61
61
64
58
58
50
51
73
54
61
How much does it hurt PA to miss transfers?
AbhishekLFC: Off course it hurts them but with Ewan and Yates having improved this season, they are actually moving towards improving their position from last season! Not missing the transfers would’ve given them a chance of improving the team further.
knockout: I’d say it hurts them much less than it would hurt most other teams. The step ahead by Ewan is key for their season and not too many declines that hurt them. But of course it would hurt every team to not be able to respond to huge offers and/or try its luck on some bargain FAs.
jandal: I agree with that, the one thing I may have looked at for them is offloading Burghart for quite a big sum to make way for Thomas to lead fully, and getting in a new leader. But with maxing Ewan and Yates it looks like now was as good a transfers as any to miss for a PCT team.
Podium Girls
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
2
9
8
0
6
Croatia14
3
4
10
7
1
5
jandal7
3
4
9
8
0
6
knockout
3
4
9
7
0
6
trekbmc
4
3
9
8
0
8
Repsol - Netflix
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Merhawi Kudus
69
81
76
72
79
77
79
53
62
70
70
67
72
Jurgen Roelandts
74
60
70
67
74
73
80
69
80
79
68
64
67
Sep Vanmarcke
76
58
66
62
77
72
68
80
70
72
65
68
67
Sven Erik Bystrom
72
68
79
61
75
72
67
56
68
76
78
73
61
Jakub Novak
70
77
73
76
75
73
75
60
64
65
64
61
76
Valens Ndayisenga
66
78
75
65
69
68
73
52
63
73
72
69
65
Antoine Duchesne
70
67
77
68
73
72
67
56
69
79
71
51
68
Sergio Barrio
63
70
79
58
69
63
65
52
65
67
64
64
58
Guillaume Levarlet
68
73
78
65
68
70
71
52
62
66
71
64
65
Rafael Serrano
65
76
68
63
72
73
73
51
65
77
75
63
63
Stefano Agostini
68
69
74
68
78
76
65
59
60
72
60
73
68
Stefano Pirazzi
66
75
73
55
69
68
73
52
62
76
85
76
55
Luis Leon Sanchez Gil
72
73
75
71
72
72
72
59
57
69
74
60
71
Fabien Taillefour
77
56
57
65
70
70
70
78
54
55
59
64
65
Jaime Roson
66
74
72
61
66
68
74
53
54
70
69
65
58
Sean McKenna
69
71
71
62
67
70
69
61
64
73
69
69
63
Andres Paez
70
69
70
67
68
67
70
58
72
72
72
64
67
Cristian Rodríguez
69
67
71
66
74
68
68
55
64
67
71
73
66
Eddie Dunbar
66
68
71
70
67
70
69
58
60
65
61
70
70
Miltiadis Giannoutsos
65
69
67
65
69
71
66
57
64
65
74
66
70
Ryan Christensen
71
66
67
64
70
70
73
51
66
60
65
74
64
Will it be a ‘boring’ season for Repsol without highlights or a battle at either end of the table?
knockout: I think that might be true. They don't have any leaders who are expected to fight for race victories and they are too strong to relegate while also being probably too weak to promote. But i don't want to dismiss the chance that a rider like Bystrom, Ndayisenga or obviously Kudus could get a big highlight at some point. When i say ‘boring’ then it’s meant in the most positive way imaginable because they look very exciting for 2019+.
AbhishekLFC: I don’t expect Kudus to be boring, Neither Bystrom really. Do they have enough in the squad to launch a promotion push? Probably not. But they have enough in the squad to keep their manager interested in every race that they participate in. That is quite a fun situation to be in actually.
jandal: I’m taking Abhi’s side here - they have guys everywhere to stay interested in every race, and they should provide plenty of fun and action, even if they’re not fighting relegation or pushing for promotion. Especially the puncheur duo could get interesting if they attack. Finally, even if Repsol hit a boring patch in terms of racing you can be sure they’re scheming up a way to sabotage their rivals.
Repsol
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
5
7
2
3
Croatia14
8
8
5
4
2
2
jandal7
7
8
5
6
1
3
knockout
7
8
3
5
1
4
trekbmc
8
7
7
7
2
4
SPAR - Shimano - SCG
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Stefan Denifl
70
84
76
72
75
71
76
54
66
65
73
64
72
Óscar Guerao
74
57
65
57
71
64
81
68
83
76
71
78
57
Tom David
74
62
75
65
76
74
70
78
70
73
68
70
65
Pello Bilbao
71
67
79
63
77
71
71
51
71
75
67
66
61
Matthias Brändle
75
76
71
79
73
73
72
56
60
69
62
68
79
Arvin Moazemi
67
73
78
69
72
72
75
62
65
73
65
63
67
Alexandr Nepomnyachsniy
74
52
64
67
74
66
78
76
78
76
70
77
67
Gyung Gu Jang
67
76
76
62
72
70
70
54
66
74
73
56
62
Bambang Suryadi
71
56
62
64
72
68
76
58
79
76
61
60
64
Nur Amirul Marzuki
70
71
74
64
71
72
70
74
72
72
64
71
63
Thurakit Boonratanathanakorn
70
70
73
67
78
74
72
50
69
73
80
79
67
Lukas Postlberger
73
58
68
77
75
72
69
56
69
70
73
61
77
Nawuti Liphongyu
68
75
72
74
73
72
74
65
58
62
68
63
73
Yevgeniy Gidich
72
72
73
73
74
74
69
55
62
70
72
67
73
Ajay Pandit Chhetri
67
76
71
61
73
65
67
55
64
73
70
78
61
Sarawut Sirironnachai
70
60
74
65
75
70
72
57
64
73
80
65
65
Hsuan Ping Hsu
71
63
66
69
72
67
63
70
74
75
67
70
67
Muhamad Zawawi Azman
68
71
72
62
67
70
69
50
65
71
71
68
63
Samuel Ssabagwanya
68
70
70
54
76
73
75
67
59
74
71
71
52
Ivo Oliveira
65
65
69
70
69
67
60
61
69
72
66
67
70
Patompob Phonarjthan
67
60
63
62
66
70
64
53
69
70
64
66
62
Was SPAR’s budget well spent on transfers?
jandal: From a wage point of view I don’t mind it - Marzuki came expensive but he’s awesome so it’s okay. David for Daniel is up there with Meintjes for 720k for worst deal of the transfers (in terms of how much it denied Xero their rightful riders). I can’t find fees for Bilbao, Rodrigues or Brandle but I like all of those deals - Bilbao and Brandle are great PCT riders and Rodrigues can finally prove he is CT Jesus even today. Things look very nice at SPARSSCG.
AbhishekLFC: I’d say they’ve done very well for themselves in this transfer window, notwithstanding killing Jandal’s ill-fated love affair with David. They’ve plugged some of the gaps they had, shoring up the point scoring in all departments. This is another team I think has an outside chance of making a promotion push.
knockout: I think SPAR had a real nice transfer window. The David-Daniel swap was an excellent deal for them and they added several nice secondary leaders. The financial details might look expensive for some of them *hust* Marzuki *hust* but in hindsight the financial details won't be as important as the performance they get out of their signings.
SPAR
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
7
4
4
6
Croatia14
8
8
6
3
6
9
jandal7
7
6
7
6
4
7
knockout
7
6
6
4
4
7
trekbmc
8
7
8
4
4
7
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Aleksandr Pluchkin
74
85
75
79
78
78
79
70
67
74
67
66
79
Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy
71
77
74
77
75
75
77
52
51
75
80
67
77
Oleksandr Prevar
72
71
79
62
77
70
68
53
67
73
63
66
62
Paolo Scarponi
68
77
75
66
71
72
75
56
62
70
70
83
66
Maciej Ulanowski
73
53
58
60
71
66
71
62
80
77
61
63
75
Mykhaylo Kononenko
67
75
72
72
72
71
70
56
65
75
64
56
72
Oleksandr Polivoda
71
62
67
61
72
68
76
58
77
77
61
65
69
Artem Topchanyuk
68
77
73
65
72
72
71
58
60
70
73
63
65
Volodymyr Dzhus
65
76
70
64
74
74
68
55
58
75
70
63
64
Oleksandr Golovash
72
60
60
78
72
69
66
55
73
76
61
65
78
Adrian Nitu
68
76
74
65
73
70
68
53
52
70
62
62
65
Mark Padun
66
75
72
64
70
72
72
53
60
71
71
69
64
Andriy Orlov
69
58
76
67
74
68
69
55
63
70
74
64
67
Anatoliy Budyak
67
72
74
68
69
64
71
56
57
65
60
74
68
Mikhail Kochetkov
72
64
60
76
72
69
69
52
71
78
74
60
58
Darren Young
71
56
61
74
67
72
71
71
72
72
65
70
74
Chris Hamilton
70
66
71
66
67
72
72
55
63
70
67
67
68
Deins Kanepejs
68
65
72
68
68
69
68
55
61
68
65
64
68
Ben O'Connor
67
70
66
65
64
68
69
53
58
67
67
69
64
Petr Rikunov
66
68
68
67
66
66
67
51
67
65
62
73
69
Timur Malieiev
69
59
68
53
67
64
68
51
65
68
64
66
54
How would you maximise Pluchkin’s points haul?
AbhishekLFC: By sending him to the hardest and longest mountains without TTs and then to the the hardest and longest mountains with TTs. 85 MON!! It doesn’t even need a second thought.
knockout: I don't think it matters a lot how hard or long the mountains are and whether the race includes a TT because Pluchkin is so much better than his closest rivals in all sort of mountainous routes. I’d mainly look at the number of stages and the category and go from there. In HC there are 29 potentially interesting RDs for him: Kenya (2 RD), Österreich (7), Colombia (6), ToME (4), Vancouver (7) and Ukraine (3).
In PTHC there are actually not as many great races for him: Apex (2), Pro Hallstatt (2) are interesting classics, Tour du Maroc (9) is a bit too long to be good value for him while Tour of California (7) might be more favourable to potentially attending puncheurs. In C1 there are a couple of nicely fitting ones with excellent PPRD value: Classique Pico Basile (2), Tour of East Java (2, Stage Race) and Corsica International (3).
Puzzling it together into his 32 race days I’d go with Classique Pico Basile (2, C1), Tour of East Java (2, Stage Race, C1), Corsica International (3, C1), Kenya (2, HC), Colombia (6 RD, HC), Österreich (7, HC), ToME (4, HC), Hallstadt (2, PTHC) and Apex (2, PTHC). Two race days remain if my math dont fail me and i think i would use those for the Celtic Chrono (2, C1) where he should be #2 favourite behind Coppel thanks to the elevation on stage 2.
knockout: Yes, they can. Especially Lutsenko is good enough that he gets them to the point where it will be close and then it is also a matter of luck with breaks and punctures whether they narrowly stay in or go down.
jandal: I think they can, mostly Lutsenko. It will be down to them mostly but Gaday/Schoonbroodt taking inspiration from the overachieving Eritel duo Lagab and Debesay in 2016, Meyer somehow not sucking (highly unlikely), and some aggressive riding from the rest of the team would push them across the line (and probably cover Zmorka’s ass if he underachieves). It’ll be tight.
AbhishekLFC: Don't think Lutsenko alone gets them over the line. They'll need 2-3 others to step and deliver and probably overperform.
Reddit
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
2
9
3
3
8
2
Croatia14
1
10
2
2
9
7
jandal7
1
8
3
4
8
2
knockout
1
9
1
3
9
2
trekbmc
3
9
3
3
9
3
World Cycling Centre
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
David Boily
67
76
78
70
72
72
69
56
68
74
69
79
61
Carlos Betancourt
69
73
80
60
72
71
64
52
67
74
75
67
59
Natnael Berhane
68
81
75
66
77
74
73
52
62
68
67
71
65
Sam Harrison
72
61
67
72
73
70
76
73
78
81
60
62
72
Jianhua Ji
68
80
75
69
73
69
73
58
61
65
66
69
69
Heiko Redecker
73
57
72
62
74
67
79
52
77
78
60
60
63
Robert Bush
74
63
62
62
75
73
71
78
71
73
66
74
62
Jaime Alberto Castañeda
71
55
59
66
71
67
78
55
80
79
56
63
73
Saulo Lay
73
56
60
56
68
66
77
61
79
81
61
77
70
Issiaka Cisse
74
53
63
67
73
67
78
63
78
77
73
59
65
Ilia Koshevoy
69
76
73
68
71
72
74
56
60
69
74
75
67
Michael Rodriguez Galindo
69
74
76
66
72
72
69
55
58
67
73
71
66
Isaac Bolivar
73
61
66
69
74
70
69
77
64
69
68
75
69
Murilo Affonso
69
76
72
73
72
70
74
56
54
68
74
53
73
Daniel Juarez
74
64
74
65
73
72
70
67
74
74
68
68
70
Tyler Brandt
67
76
69
73
74
69
72
62
60
66
66
71
72
Flavio De Luna
67
74
71
75
67
72
70
66
56
68
66
67
74
Sven Vandousselaere
74
55
69
76
72
72
71
62
70
71
76
60
76
Evgeny Russo
68
70
74
72
72
71
69
71
65
69
63
61
70
Jay Thomson
73
65
73
74
72
69
74
52
65
68
74
67
72
Chun Kai Feng
78
71
73
70
74
72
71
70
60
62
74
68
71
Ahmad Arissol
74
66
71
72
70
73
71
72
62
68
76
70
71
Getachew Sendeku
68
69
68
68
66
69
68
58
62
67
53
62
67
Daniel Felipe Martinez
63
68
67
66
65
68
66
53
64
68
64
68
65
Nicholas Dlamini
72
65
68
69
68
68
67
50
62
67
67
61
69
No longer a development team? What positive aspects can WCC take from this offseason?
jandal: They do have some loan-outs, to their credit, but yes it seems that way. I have three theories. A) The most sensible, they wish to secure their PCT spot before resuming talent hoarding. B) They have transitioned from World Cycling Centre meaning developing talents to riding with lots of random nationalities (which is a massive cop-out!), C) Scorchio has been hit on the head and forgotten that he runs a supposed development team! The positive aspects for them are that their leaders are not going to decline for a few years, so if this is a good enough base to survive (which I have my reservations about), then it’s sustainable and can probably next year add some security with another leader (maybe ditch some of the crappy sprinters to make room) and add some talents.
knockout: First of all, relegating back to CT is a massive harm to the long term plans and i generally believe that sacrificing one year of collecting talents to sign leaders good enough to stay in the division. Second, it’s worth mentioning that WCC stayed true to its name as the five highest OVR riders are from five different continents. Third, they’ve managed to beat out a WT team for the transfer deal of Chun Kai Feng who is quite close to pure awesomeness.
WCC
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
8
5
5
2
4
Croatia14
5
6
4
4
2
3
jandal7
6
7
6
5
2
6
knockout
5
6
4
4
2
5
trekbmc
8
7
6
5
3
7
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Peter Velits
71
82
75
74
74
73
74
55
65
67
70
63
74
Luke Rowe
78
55
66
65
76
70
79
75
79
80
75
71
74
Tosh Van der Sande
75
65
70
58
78
73
76
66
79
79
54
60
58
George Bennett
67
78
76
65
75
74
79
58
65
73
55
63
65
Mekseb Debesay
74
67
73
72
74
78
69
75
69
78
72
74
74
Anthony Roux
74
65
78
62
78
71
70
52
57
75
82
65
62
Abolfazl Gilanipoor
69
77
71
68
74
71
73
53
56
73
67
73
68
Stanislau Bazhkou
71
69
75
76
73
75
71
53
63
64
67
61
76
Jaco Venter
70
74
77
60
72
74
71
50
58
66
70
67
60
Marvain Tognama Kossouhorou
72
71
73
70
70
73
68
64
72
70
72
64
71
Tom Davison
72
69
73
69
70
70
69
60
65
69
71
70
73
Hamish Schreurs
69
54
66
52
71
73
68
73
69
69
64
62
61
Jamalidin Novardianto
73
61
68
68
69
75
72
69
69
76
74
68
72
Carl Ngamoki-Cameron
71
63
67
65
73
72
67
71
71
72
68
73
66
Dylan Kennett
71
58
64
69
72
72
68
62
73
72
67
68
74
Joseph Areruya
71
70
71
64
73
74
72
53
68
69
67
59
64
Gregory Daniel
71
63
68
72
69
70
67
55
55
66
70
68
71
Callum Scotson
68
56
62
72
67
66
67
69
66
74
67
63
74
Jordan Schleck
62
71
69
52
68
67
75
53
52
70
56
57
60
Joseph Kimathi
68
68
66
61
65
68
65
61
62
68
67
73
63
Nils Schomber
69
54
57
68
62
70
64
50
69
69
62
64
75
Hernan Ricardo Aguirre
66
68
66
58
72
72
71
56
61
61
76
69
56
Is Xero the team where good planning is the most important?
AbhishekLFC: I don’t know about ‘most’, but it will be interesting to see how they manage Rowe, Van der Sande, Roux, Bennett and more to get the best out of them. Velits is a shoe-in for every mountainous stage race they go to, and that is perhaps the only surety I can think in terms of their line-ups. A lot of where they end up this season will depend on how well they find the right races for the right riders, and in the right startlist.
knockout: I wouldn't say so. Velits should be quite easy to plan. Debesay, Gilanipoor, Bazhkou and Venter should all be relatively obvious to plan as well. Even Bennett might not be too dependant on good planning even though bad planning can lose a fair bit and i believe that having both Van der Sande and Rowe could make planning less important than having just one of them. I think good planning is more important for teams like Fablok, Euskaltel or cycleYorkshire.
jandal: This probably isn’t the team where it will bring the biggest variance, but every team has their own story and for mine planning is vital - our survival could depend on it. So thanks for making me reconsider my whole season planning, whoever selected this question! I think that the change in plans throughout transfers make prime planning hard for Xero in PTHC & HC, but not impossible. I think that the sprint duo and Bennett need to be planned well especially, but what worries me more is that really all leaders but Velits are hard to predict with their statlines - they could overperform but all have the potential to be rather meh.
AbhishekLFC: We’re happy you didn’t have a breakdown in the transfer season
We hope you very much liked the preview! Feedback to the different methods, approaches, paradigms and outcomes is very much appreciated. Thanks for reading!
Great work guys! I liked your ginourmous preview last year and you put down an amazing piece again this year. Pretty much agree with my team's review although trekbmc is a bit off with his theory: I wanted to go for a new puncheurs leader but then every PCT did, so I panicked and saw Zepuntke up for sale without thinking he's not as great as he seems at first glance. Though I'm confident he will bring some points this season. But yeah, another battle against relegation seems to be on the horizon.
Looking back at my prediction from last year, well that was embarrassing, especially seeing I was a lot closer in the PT and CT ones. Clearly a lot of surprises happened in the last season, both negative (us and Orange especially among the teams that were supposed to do best) and positive (well of course Isostar above all) ones but I still can't help but be ashamed at how many of those teams I completely got wrong.
About our own team, yes I do agree that normally this much depth is unjustified and it was probably a better short-term idea to just save the wages of 7-8 lieutenants to invest on a big name, but midway through the transfers I felt like 1) my team was good enough to be certain enough to promote and 2) there really was no one on the market I could reasonably afford that had the same resale value as all these riders combined, considering these could all be solid scorers in PCT and CT but not really relevant (for the most part) in PT. We've all seen how crazy high some prices went for some riders that would be lucky to top 30 this year's PCT standings.
It doesn't really matter to me whether we win the title or not (I've already mentioned that my gut feeling is that it won't happen) as long as we finally promote, and like someone mentioned here we're looking set for a smooth transition to the top division.
Quite a bit of pressure though to be predicted on top by everyone here (with trek indicating he loves Generali more than his own team ), gives me a confidence boost as well after I'd been the only one to see my own team at the top so far, at least among the predictions posted days before this one. Oh and to jandal, yes we're taking our A-team to Cyprus to wreck shit up.
Love all the work done here and it looks even more in depth than last year's analysis, which is a tough task. Will continue on reading everything over the next few days, thanks for all this guys.
EDIT: I find it interesting that we have a lower TT score overall compared to last year when I'd say the team not only has fewer rivals but also is stronger in that aspect for sure Same for cobbles, I'm convinced 78 cob Theuns can improve Teunissen/Taillefour's scoring easily. Not that I can complain about it or anything considering I'm still at the top of the rankings, just wanted to point it out Edited by matt17br on 23-08-2018 23:22
Massive read! Awesome to see such detailed view on the division and well there isn't much to say that hasn't been said already, so many different outcomes can come from it.
I'm going to binge read this this weekend but I just wanted to show my appreciation already. Didn't know this was still coming
Re: Reddit, having relatively little words for me proves how obvious my team is, though I'm happy to see me getting mentioned as a team for the future as well, since that was my main goal. I agree the most with knockout's position, I think we're the main contender for that final relegation spot, so I just need to luck out with another team underperforming hard.
I can see that my DLC wage is causing some headaches, basically I said fuck it. I havent gotten around to posting my goals for the season but I have two stage race goals that DLC should be able to land. Also went pretty timid in terms of goals so my and had a few deals fall through. Which ended up meaning that Wage cap meant less to me than actual budget. Maybe I just wasnt active enough, idk..
I was trying to unload Pellaud and had him lined up in a trade that ended up pusing me into the DLC madness. In real terms I was way too soft in renewals and underestimated what it takes to build a good PCT team. With wage wasted on Pellaud, Gaimon, GVK, Farrar among others I have a decent chunk of change hanging around.
Also something to note is that a lot of the stage racers went to incredibly inflated prices meant that I was priced out very early. Signing Dowsett might have been a mistake but him and Pichon actually don't have that many overlaps, so could be ok. But I agree with the overall notion that my hills squad is too deep. Also Durasek wasn't an original idea and was a last minute replacement, to me trying to lineup multiple higher quality riders to fill that void, off TT'er that can score elsewhere.
So Boivin is a weird one, he is not great but again it is a rider I needed for local prescence/RP and I also like the look of him. He might not score like crazy but if planned correctly could put in a shift.
In terms of my overall thoughts on what went completely wrong in the window:
I have/had no assets at all. This comes down to me fucking up my first renewals pretty royally. Having Pellaud on massive wages and GVK on even bigger wages meant they were impossible to offload and with good reason. And as I said earlier I didnt have a lot of budget to work with, which is why I very early on said yes to taking in Mads P. on loan which may or may not have limited me a little bit. Overall the cash was super helpful tho and Pedersen is a decent rider for a loan in, having already proven a bit of that in TDU.
It was hard for me to get in young talent that would help me build for the future and ended up being priced out of Powless, Burke, Barta and Gregaard before landing any rider at 1.00 that could actually help me out in Vlasov, who should end up being a decent TT/Leadout in CT at least, potentially more with some training. My squad is very old, with only 8 riders being below 27 and 2 of them aint even mine, I do have McCutcheon out on loan, who will be decent at CT.
In terms of riders that decline atm:
Pichon, being pot 3 will 100% be absolute garbage post first delay.
Gaimon, rip sweet prince.
Nic Hamilton, another rider I really like.
Peterson, kinda embarrassing that he was my best climber last year.
Lebris, did one freak win last year most likely won't do anything this year so waste of space.
Farrar, 100% a major error in terms of resigning, should not have been kept under any circumstance.
So regardless if I stay up or go down, a major rebuild was in line next season. Should potentially have been done this year.
Riders that at least have something to add next year regardless of division:
Villella, the fact that I have Villella now is a bit of a compensation for Roturn hijacking Gallopin
DLC, would require some serious renewals gymnastics to stay around but could do a job in CT when I relegate.
GVK, is decent in CT but would also need to drop wages when I go down.
Pellaud, could do a job in CT, but again lower wage would be nice.
Boivin, will hopefully be a quality sprinter in CT.
Gaspar, is sick and I am looking forward to him racing for me, wont do a job in PCT sadly, might shine a bit more in CT.
Vlasov, only talent in my sqaud.
McCutcheon: he will do something in CT once maxed I guess.
Piccoli, is really not that good, might be kept in CT.
Then there's the middle field of riders in terms of being just on the whim of being too old to stick around:
Durasek, would be good CT and will stay with the wage he is on if I go down.
Ryba, I tried to shift this window, not good enough to be more than a <60k rider, overspent again.
Diggle, I am happy with and obviously will be a good CT rider.
Dowsett: really depends on this season, also depends on how riders like him do in CT this year.
Smukulis, will stay I love the guy too much, 250k well spent, cheers Knockout.
Hope this clears up a lot of my hills mayhem, up. Thought such a high quality post, deserved a high quality answer
) to craft a proper squad. So it might only be two, or take out more for even more fun! P.S. Hindsight is wonderful, that was just theoretical 
