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Ollfardh was bored and looked at the PCT leaders
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-08-2018 15:47
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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It's one of those days where's there's 2 hours of work time left and 0 motivation to do anything useful. Hence I present to you this PCT leader preview. I will go through the different terrains and make a list of the 10 riders I think will score best. This is based on the DB, not on race selections or planners, so I think I can already go ahead with this?
If I still have time, I'll also make a ranking based on the points the teams get.
Cobbles
Let's start with the most important aspect, the cobbles! This is going to be really close, with several riders that could win a race. Vanspeybroeck is the most promintent rider. 82 cobbles, decent backups and a team that can get him a long way. Blythe is slightly worse off, but has a better sprint to compensate. Behind them I place two 80 riders, but with way better back up stats. I give Vanbilsen the slightest of edges over Baugnies.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 1 | Pieter Vanspeybroeck | Carlsberg | | 2 | Adam Blythe | Iberia | | 3 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 4 | Jerome Baugnies | Kulczyk | | 5 | Sep Vanmarcke | Repsol | | 6 | Ruben Zepunkte | Minions | | 7 | Marcus Burghardt | Podium Ambition | | 8 | Edward Theuns | Generali | | 9 | Nikolas Maes | Indosat | | 10 | Tom David | Spar Shimano |
Hills
If i said cobbles were really close, hills are even closer! It's hard to put one rider on top, but I'll have to go for Kinoshita. His great back up stats make him more useful than Lutsenko's sprint. Ulissi gets the third place over some 81 hill guys, but I feel this prediction will have the most mistakes after the season. Also, some riders are higher than you might have expected due to their TT skills, which can add points in hilly stage races.
| Hills | Rider | Team | | 1 | Tomohiro Kinoshita | Meiji | | 2 | Alexey Lutsenko | Reddit | | 3 | Diego Ulissi | Generali | | 4 | Jay McCarthy | Ayubowan | | 5 | Aleksandar Flugel | Kraftwerk | | 6 | Maurice Schreurs | Novatek | | 7 | Mohamed Shawal | Indosat | | 8 | Ion Izagirre | Iberia | | 9 | Rui Costa | Philips | | 10 | Michal Kwiatkowski | Netia |
Stage races
No doubts here who the Alpha Male is, Pluchkin should win most of the races he riders this year, including PTHC races. He's the favourite, all others are challengers or outsiders at best. Keizer can push him if there's a lot of time trialing involved and Denifl or Uran could surprise in some races. But most likely, the winner of the individual rankings is known already.
| Stage races | Rider | Team | | 1 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | Popo4Ever | | 2 | Martijn Keizer | Indosat | | 3 | Rigoberto Uran | Minions | | 4 | Stefan Denifl | Spar | | 5 | Peter Velits | Xero | | 6 | Sergio Henao | Philips | | 7 | Chen Shikai | Meiji | | 8 | Ryan Eastman | Azteca | | 9 | Yonathan Monsalve | Ayubowan | | 10 | Merhawi Kudus | Repsol |
Sprints
As always, stat inflation is the worst is this category and as we all know, a failing sprinter can make a team relegate in no time. This year's top favourite has a team named after him, but can Degenkolb handle the pressure this year? After him I go for top talent Ewan, ahead of the usual PCT suspects Lo Cicero, Mohs, Cavendish, Guerao, Goss and Vantomme.
| Sprints | Rider | Team | | 1 | John Degenkolb | Iberia | | 2 | Caleb Ewan | Podium Ambition | | 3 | Erik Mohs | Fablok | | 4 | Mark Cavendish | Kraftwerk | | 5 | Ivano Lo Cicero | Carrefour | | 6 | Matthew Goss | Indosat | | 7 | Oscar Guerao | Spar | | 8 | Dan Holloway | Novatek | | 9 | Maxime Vantomme | Netia | | 10 | Tom Van Asbroeck | Lierse |
Time trials
A clear favourite again, but the randomness of time trials can hurt him more than others. Nonetheless, Jerome Coppel should have this one. Durbridge and Zmorka to be the main challengers for him. One dimentional rider Ford may surprise on occasion. I decided to exclude Pluchkin and Keizer, although they might appear in flat time trials as well. I only wanted to select one rider per team here, but in a TT more than one rider could score well.
| Time trials | Rider | Team | | 1 | Jerome Coppel | Carrefour | | 2 | Marlen Zmorka | Team Reddit | | 3 | Luke Durbridge | CycleYorkshire | | 4 | Dominique Cornu | Euskaltel | | 5 | Mikhail Ignatiev | Fablok | | 6 | Jesse Sergent | Novatek | | 7 | Matthias Brandle | Spar | | 8 | Lukas Schadlich | Kraftwerk | | 9 | Elia Viviani | Generali | | 10 | Luke Keough | Azteka |
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-08-2018 15:47
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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If we look at rankings this way, we get the following with a simple 1-10 point distribution:
| 1 | Iberia | 22 | | 2 | Indosat | 20 | | 3 | Reddit | 18 | | 4 | Spar | 16 | | 4 | Kraftwerk | 16 | | 4 | Carrefour | 16 | | 7 | Meiji | 14 | | 7 | Fablok | 14 | | 9 | Minions | 13 | | 9 | Podium Ambition | 13 | | 9 | Generali | 13 | | 9 | Novatek | 13 | | 13 | Carlsberg | 10 | | 13 | Popo4Ever | 10 | | 15 | Lierse | 9 | | 15 | Ayubowan | 9 | | 17 | CycleYorkshire | 8 | | 18 | Kulczyk | 7 | | 18 | Repsol | 7 | | 18 | Philips | 7 | | 18 | Euskaltel | 7 | | 22 | Xero | 6 | | 23 | Azteca | 4 | | 24 | Netia | 3 | | 25 | WCC | 0 | | 25 | Nordstrom | 0 |
Far from what I'd expect to happen, as examples Ayubowan looks very low while Reddit might be too high here. And of course I don't think WCC or Nordstorm will end up pointless. Nor do I see Carlsberg as a one trick pony.
I've made some adjustments to the total formula and came up with a final ranking. I won't give exact numbers here, but rather divide into categories.
Fighting for the title:
Fighting for promotion:
| 3 | Spar | | 4 | Kraftwerk | | 5 | Meiji | | 6 | Minions | | 7 | Podium Ambition | | 8 | Reddit | | 9 | Popo4Ever |
Safe mid-table:
| 10 | Fablok | | 11 | Carrefour | | 12 | Generali | | 13 | Novatek | | 14 | Ayubowan |
Close to the danger zone:
| 15 | Philips | | 16 | Carlsberg | | 17 | Xero | | 18 | Lierse | | 19 | Repsol | | 20 | Kulczyk |
Fighting to stay in:
| 21 | Azteca | | 22 | CycleYorkshire | | 23 | Euskaltel | | 24 | Netia | | 25 | WCC | | 25 | Nordstrom |
Edited by Ollfardh on 13-08-2018 16:14
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 13-08-2018 17:21
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
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That would be a truly disappointing season!
Thanks for the ranking though 
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| Shonak |
Posted on 13-08-2018 18:54
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
I give Vanbilsen the slightest of edges over Baugnies.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 3 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 4 | Jerome Baugnies | Kulczyk |
Some people never learn do they 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Vien |
Posted on 13-08-2018 19:18
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
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I'd be very surprised if we could end up in 8th, but at least it's a very pleasant sight. Thanks for doing this! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-08-2018 19:22
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Shonak wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
I give Vanbilsen the slightest of edges over Baugnies.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 3 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 4 | Jerome Baugnies | Kulczyk |
Some people never learn do they
Remind me how many races Baugnies won that season
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 13-08-2018 19:38
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Ct time next season it would seem :/
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 13-08-2018 19:44
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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About right, at least for my team, I feel. 4th to 9th is likely where we'll end up, mainly depending on Nemom and Prevar.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Booker |
Posted on 13-08-2018 20:40
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 875
Joined: 03-07-2013
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I would be perturbed if we ended up 20th - not to mention I'd likely have a heart attack at some point during the season 
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| Shonak |
Posted on 13-08-2018 21:17
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
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Ollfardh wrote:
Shonak wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
I give Vanbilsen the slightest of edges over Baugnies.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 3 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 4 | Jerome Baugnies | Kulczyk |
Some people never learn do they
Remind me how many races Baugnies won that season
Obviously didn't have had access to strava dope. At the poles, he'll be on the good juice again.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-08-2018 21:17
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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I wouldn't worry too much guys, this ranking looks at leaders only. If your team has depth, you'll be low on this ranking but will end up higher. This ranking won't be any good at the end of the season, it just gives an indication of how strong your leader on each terrain is. Maybe.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 20:18
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 14-08-2018 08:23
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
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As you said, being put in the relegation fight according to my leaders, or better, my leaders that are Top10 in their field, is not something that worries me.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 14-08-2018 08:27
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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Would be happy with 17th. Would be even more happy with 2 spots behind Philips as in reality they'll be closer to the top I think! Interesting ranking, not sure I agree but interesting to see it based on subjectivity around leaders. Thanks for making one, like seeing them, no matter if I agree or not
Also, Baugnies > Vanbilsen 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Heine |
Posted on 14-08-2018 08:41
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4116
Joined: 08-04-2007
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Schwarzmann > Both Baugnies and Vanbilsen
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 14-08-2018 08:50
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Not really productive. We don't go around saying that grass is green either, it's just assumed
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 14-08-2018 23:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Honestly I dont even know why Zepunkte is even listed here, did we really learn nothing from the past seasons? 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 15-08-2018 11:02
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Is someone starting to miss the MG?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-08-2018 15:46
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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I'd take either of your rankings. Though the methodology lacks much nuance, I'd say it's given decent results.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 15-08-2018 18:41
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Nah fam, not there yet at all.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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