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Dominox CT Mathematical-objectivity-subjective comparison
dominox
Hi! As it is my first season in Man-Game I decided to give it a go and look at the CT teams to see and try to do a comparision. Heck, a little bit of preview to see which teams will take what place in the final rankings. I was looking at the 6 different statistics. Five completely understandable (Hills, Mountain, Sprint, TT & Cobbles); plus 6th one - Stage Races where I was looking at the MO/HI/TT statistics - mostly at lvl 72/68/68+. I tried to be objective. Tried Wink. Without furthering do it's time for a comparison! If few teams have the same number of points - list is alphabetical. Not so long Pfft

Let me know if you want the same comparison for both PCT/PT in the near future.

SPRINT
Spoiler
10 - Delvaux
10 - Rothaus - Aegon
9,5 - Sauber Petronas Racing
9 - Equinor Pro Cycling
8,5 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
8,5 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
8 - BNZ Cycling Team
8 - Eddie Stobart
8 - ENI - MOL
8 - GCN ProTeam
8 - Oberfranken
7,5 - Banco de Bogota
7,5 - Campari - Super Dry
7,5 - DK Žalgiris
7 - Swisslion Cycling Team
7 - Valio - DeLaval
6 - Adastra - Argon 18
6 - Compal-Merida
1,5 - Andorra Project - InGamba

COBBLES
Spoiler
7,5 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
7 - Delvaux
7 - GCN ProTeam
7 - Sauber Petronas Racing
6 - Campari - Super Dry
6 - ENI - MOL
6 - Rothaus - Aegon
5,5 - Swisslion Cycling Team
5 - Adastra - Argon 18
5 - Andorra Project - InGamba
5 - Valio - DeLaval
4 - Oberfranken
3 - Compal-Merida
3 - Eddie Stobart
2,5 - Banco de Bogota
2,5 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
2 - BNZ Cycling Team
2 - DK Žalgiris
0 - Equinor Pro Cycling

TT
Spoiler
8,5 - Swisslion Cycling Team
8 - Andorra Project - InGamba
8 - Sauber Petronas Racing
7,5 - Adastra - Argon 18
7,5 - Banco de Bogota
7,5 - Rothaus - Aegon
7,5 - Valio - DeLaval
7 - Campari - Super Dry
7 - GCN ProTeam
7 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
6,5 - Compal-Merida
6 - DK Žalgiris
6 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
5,5 - Oberfranken
5,5 - BNZ Cycling Team
5 - Eddie Stobart
4 - Equinor Pro Cycling
0 - Delvaux
0 - ENI - MOL

HILLS
Spoiler
9 - ENI - MOL
8,5 - Campari - Super Dry
8,5 - Compal-Merida
8,5 - Valio - DeLaval
8 - BNZ Cycling Team
8 - DK Žalgiris
8 - Eddie Stobart
8 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
7,5 - Andorra Project - InGamba
7,5 - Equinor Pro Cycling
7 - Delvaux
7 - GCN ProTeam
7 - Sauber Petronas Racing
7 - Swisslion Cycling Team
6,5 - Banco de Bogota
6 - Rothaus - Aegon
6 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
4 - Adastra - Argon 18
4 - Oberfranken

MOUNTAIN
Spoiler
10 - Andorra Project - InGamba
10 - Compal-Merida
10 - Oberfranken
9,5 - Banco de Bogota
9,5 - GCN ProTeam
9,5 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
9 - Adastra - Argon 18
8,5 - Valio - DeLaval
8 - BNZ Cycling Team
8 - Campari - Super Dry
8 - ENI - MOL
8 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
7 - Eddie Stobart
7 - Equinor Pro Cycling
7 - Swisslion Cycling Team
6 - DK Žalgiris
6 - Sauber Petronas Racing
3 - Rothaus - Aegon
0 - Delvaux

STAGE RACES (All 3 stats of MO/HI/TT)
Spoiler
9,5 - Andorra Project - InGamba
9 - Valio - DeLaval
8,5 - Oberfranken
8 - Banco de Bogota
8 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
7,5 - GCN ProTeam
7,5 - Sauber Petronas Racing
7,5 - Swisslion Cycling Team
7 - Adastra - Argon 18
7 - BNZ Cycling Team
7 - Campari - Super Dry
6,5 - Compal-Merida
6,5 - DK Žalgiris
6,5 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
5 - Eddie Stobart
5 - ENI - MOL
4 - Equinor Pro Cycling
3 - Rothaus - Aegon
2 - Delvaux

The best cobble rider: Roger Kluge - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica

He is not best if you are looking only at the cobble stat. But why he is the best in CT? Because of other statistics. He has the highest stamina, resistance, recovery and flat from all cobble riders. Also, if the race will not be that selective, he has something others don't. Ability to sprint. His 77 at sprint is giving him not only a big confidence boost before sprint in cobble classics/stages. But also he might fight with other pure sprinters on flat stages.

The best sprinter: Jacopo Guarnieri - Delvaux

Oh man... Delvaux team is so strong with all those sprinters. The problem is... Almost everywhere else. No real leader for mountain stages, few decent ones in hilly classics, nothing for TT. Only sprinters. But what a sprinters! Guarnieri, Kreder, Korzh, Favilli & Feillu. Only Rothaus - Aegon can compete with those. Guarnieri should be the best on many occasions. Amazing back-up stats, great ability of riding on flat terrain. No big deal with hills stat, but it's doesn't mean anything bad. If team manager will have a good planning, Jacopo might score the biggest amount of points from all sprinters. And not be far away from overall individual win with all those flat races/classics/stages in CT!

The best time-trialist: Kai Reus - Swisslion Cycling Team

Situation the same as from those both riders above. Not the best with single TT stat, but with all those back up stats he has, he will be great in TT. Great fighter. He might be able to help his leaders in mountainous or hilly races. Not so much, but still. There aren't many TT stages, but he will score pretty nice amount of points and might be one of the best scorers from Swisslion Cycling Team.

The best puncheur: Cyril Gautier - Valio - DeLaval

80 in hills. That has to say something. On the other hand, he will not be a massive scorer. There aren't that many pure hilly classics or stages. Also, there are better climbers than he is. Much better. With potential sprint from grouped finish, he is also not the favourite, not the fastest. Looking only at the pure stats, he is the best puncheur. Will he be the best scorer from those? I don't think so. Not always the best riders are able to prove it.

The best climber: Thibaut Pinot - GCN ProTeam

That might be a game changer. One of the four best climbers in CT. Not the best when it comes to TT or riding in hilly terrain. But his secondary stats are much better than others. With a good calendar he will score a massive amount of points. He just needs a good form, calendar and bit of luck.

The best stage racer: Leopold König - Valio - DeLaval

This are the statistics where not only mountains are important. Also TT ability and hills. Looking at those three and secondary ones - I believe he is the "strongest" contender to win stage races. Second rider from Valio - DeLaval. With his stamina, resistance and recovery he seems not to be the "strongest". Thibout Pinot have a better stats. There is also Pomoshnikov or Elissonde. But Leopold has something those three doesn't have. An ability of riding a time trial. The difference can be enough to prove that König might be the best stage racer in CT. Of course if the races he will participate in have a TT.

To sum up all those points from above comparison:
Spoiler
47,5 - Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
46 - Adastra - Argon 18
46 - GCN ProTeam
45,5 - Valio - DeLaval
45 - Sauber Petronas Racing
44 - Campari - Super Dry
42,5 - Swisslion Cycling Team
41,5 - Banco de Bogota
40,5 - Compal-Merida
40 - Oberfranken
38,5 - BNZ Cycling Team
38,5 - Telia-Brussels Airlines
36 - DK Žalgiris
36 - Eddie Stobart
36 - ENI - MOL
35,5 - Rothaus - Aegon
34 - Andorra Project - InGamba
31,5 - Equinor Pro Cycling
26 - Delvaux

My prediction:
Spoiler
1. Team Cerveceria Costa Rica
2. GCN ProTeam
3. Adastra - Argon 18
4. Valio - DeLaval
5. Sauber Petronas Racing
6. Campari - Super Dry
7. Swisslion Cycling Team
8. Banco de Bogota
9. Oberfranken
10. Compal-Merida
11. Telia-Brussels Airlines
12. Andorra Project - InGamba
13. BNZ Cycling Team
14. ENI - MOL
15. DK Žalgiris
16. Eddie Stobart
17. Rothaus - Aegon
18. Equinor Pro Cycling
19. Delvaux

Oberfranken is rated on higher place than Compal-Merida, because I did believe Oberfranken has a bit better team overall.

I had problems with Andorra Project - InGamba. The team is focused on two great leaders: Robert Kiserlovski & Lawrence Warbasse. Problem is everyhere else. Decent helpers, but nothing really more. No sprinters which I believe will hurt that team a lot. Also if Kiserlovski & Warbasse will struggle in their races... It might end lower in rankings than my prediction. But! If they both will score good... Top 10 is possible. But I think nothing more than 10th place with all flat/hilly races.

Valio - DeLaval have two riders named "the best" in CT. That doesn't mean the team is the strongest. Like I said - Gautier has to prove he is the best on paper. König will be great in stage races, but without TT? I would name 3 or 4 riders better than him. Like Pinot, which is from GCN. Valio have three great riders - König, Gautier and Manninen. But the depth in other teams I think is better to end CT team ranking on higher place.

Edited by dominox on 11-08-2018 17:43
 
Yellow Jersey
I LOVE that sprint ranking :lol:

Nice preview, and super nice for it being the first one! I think you forgot to mention that TT will surely bring me plenty of points, not only in TT events but in stage races (especially the ones with TTT's). Was also a bit surprised for not seeing Kiserlovski in the best Stage Racer discussion but I know what you're based in Wink

Well, I hope you're wrong with 12th for me Smile I do lack sprint and hills depth but I'm sure I'll make it up in other terrains. Anyway Good job!
 
Tamijo
I hope you a spot on :lol:
 
redordead
I would be delighted with 7th place, not particularly confident in anything besides TT's Pfft

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tsmoha
Can't see Delvaux finishing last in this division, even though Guarnieri's race days are obviously concerning, if you rate the rest of the team significally worse. But let's not forget a potent cobbles duo Breen/VdH and an interesting puncheur duo Kadri/Vichot. And as seen in the past, there will be teams struggling to score any big points. Guarnieri himself is enough to avoid a last place in the division, I believe Smile

No MO/TT will hurt indeed, but I guess there's at least a chance to plan your season in a way, where this disadvantage won't hurt as much as it looks (not sure though) Pfft

But always interesting to read previews, so thanks for that!
 
knockout
I'm glad for every preview we can read and it's always cool to see new managers post their thoughts too because they often come with different opinions than others.

I like the way you posted the rankings for each individual terrain and i will surely take a closer look at that later again. Cannot comment yet as i havent looked into the division too closely. The bits you wrote about the best rider in each terrain sound quite good. Thanks for that.


However, the final rankings prediction isnt looking too good. Teams are punished way too much for ignoring a terrain completely. e.g. in the mountains category your difference between 1st and 17th is smaller than the difference between 17th and 19th while during the season the best team on a terrain will score much more than the 17th best and the 17th best will score not much less than the 19th best. This leads to more one-dimensional teams dropping much lower than they should. Most extreme example is Delvaux who you have predicted on the last place despite saying that Guarnieri is in the fight for the individual rankings victory. Last season the winner of the individual CT rankings scored more than 10 of 24 teams so you should predict Delvaux at least midtable while I suspect they finish way higher than that.

Perhaps you should look at weighting the terrains a bit (e.g. best terrain counts double, worst terrain gets cut) or changing the scale (e.g. an average team scores a 5 on each terrain instead of 7-8) to give strong leaders a bigger effect on the rankings.


Hope you take this as feedback and i would be curious about a V2 of the rankings (maybe even without the points and just your opinion) if you want to look at it again. Thanks for your effort anyway Wink
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sutty68
Hopefully Eddie Stobart can prove this wrong Rolling Eyes
 
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Heine
While my predictions wouldn't be the same as your (like I agree you put Delevaux too low) I like them. They are your predictions and opinions! Stay with them

And then show everyone when they are compared after the season that you were right all along ;-) I have never had the most accurate prediction in all my seasons in the game
 
dominox
Thanks all for the feedback! I might look again at the teams to see where I should change something, but still. Don't be to cruel, it's my first time in Man-Game guys Pfft

Yellow Jersey wrote:
I think you forgot to mention that TT will surely bring me plenty of points, not only in TT events but in stage races (especially the ones with TTT's). Was also a bit surprised for not seeing Kiserlovski in the best Stage Racer discussion but I know what you're based in Wink

Well, I hope you're wrong with 12th for me Smile I do lack sprint and hills depth but I'm sure I'll make it up in other terrains. Anyway Good job!

That's why I had problem with your team. Great two leaders, but except those two, plus few helpers, there is almost nothing more. Sure, in TTT your team might look really good (I don't know how the planning went so it's hard to say). I rated better teams with better depth, even if they had a bit weaker leaders Pfft

Tamijo wrote:
I hope you a spot on :lol:

Happy with 6th place, huh? Pfft

redordead wrote:
I would be delighted with 7th place, not particularly confident in anything besides TT's Pfft

Not confident enough in your team? Pfft

tsmoha wrote:
Can't see Delvaux finishing last in this division, even though Guarnieri's race days are obviously concerning, if you rate the rest of the team significally worse. But let's not forget a potent cobbles duo Breen/VdH and an interesting puncheur duo Kadri/Vichot. And as seen in the past, there will be teams struggling to score any big points. Guarnieri himself is enough to avoid a last place in the division, I believe Smile

No MO/TT will hurt indeed, but I guess there's at least a chance to plan your season in a way, where this disadvantage won't hurt as much as it looks (not sure though) Pfft

I agree Guarnieri himself might be even a CT individual ranking winner. Especially with the amount of flat races/classics. The reason I rated Delvaux last is mostly because lack of MO/HI. Sure, I agree on both duo's. Didn't look closely at every team calendar, but I think there are not so many cobble classics and hilly races this season. Of course, there are few of those, but still. Having 5 super sprinters will not make team finish in top 10 Pfft. Or will?

knockout wrote:
However, the final rankings prediction isnt looking too good. Teams are punished way too much for ignoring a terrain completely. e.g. in the mountains category your difference between 1st and 17th is smaller than the difference between 17th and 19th while during the season the best team on a terrain will score much more than the 17th best and the 17th best will score not much less than the 19th best. This leads to more one-dimensional teams dropping much lower than they should. Most extreme example is Delvaux who you have predicted on the last place despite saying that Guarnieri is in the fight for the individual rankings victory. Last season the winner of the individual CT rankings scored more than 10 of 24 teams so you should predict Delvaux at least midtable while I suspect they finish way higher than that.

Perhaps you should look at weighting the terrains a bit (e.g. best terrain counts double, worst terrain gets cut) or changing the scale (e.g. an average team scores a 5 on each terrain instead of 7-8) to give strong leaders a bigger effect on the rankings.

Hope you take this as feedback and i would be curious about a V2 of the rankings (maybe even without the points and just your opinion) if you want to look at it again. Thanks for your effort anyway Wink

Sure, every feedback is appreciated. I just didn't look at all in the Man-Game before. This is my first season and first serious looking at the teams. Didn't look exactly at the rankings, so you might be right. The difference in points in mountain is mostly because of lack of those riders at all.

Andorra has 80, 78, 77, 76 and few with lowers.
Compal has 80, 78, 76, two 75's and few lowers.
Oberfranken has 80, two 78's and two 76's.

17th Sauber has two 75's and one 74. Delvaux have nothing except one(!) puncheur with 70 MO and two youngsters with average of 69 with 70 MO. If so I could give 1 point. Just for those 70's Pfft

I agree that I might be to cruel with Delvaux. I'm just not so sure about "only sprinters" teams, especially that from what I know PCM, the best doesn't always means the best scorer. I just looked at the stats only and composition of the team. Maybe that's the problem?

sutty68 wrote:
Hopefully Eddie Stobart can prove this wrong Rolling Eyes

Hopefully! I wish always all the best!

Heine wrote:
While my predictions wouldn't be the same as your (like I agree you put Delevaux too low) I like them. They are your predictions and opinions! Stay with them

And then show everyone when they are compared after the season that you were right all along ;-) I have never had the most accurate prediction in all my seasons in the game

I'll wait to see what you have then! Just curious Pfft
 
maxime86
I like the idea of ranking people by terrain and you seem to have done it well, but I definitely can't see Delevaux finishing last like everyone else has said. If anything I consider them one of the favorites to promote.

I also think Valio will run away with the CT and that Eddie Stobart won't be as bad as you think, but I guess we'll see at the end of the season!

Would love to see you do this with the PCT too, it's a really interesting read Smile
 
cio93
dominox wrote:
I agree that I might be to cruel with Delvaux. I'm just not so sure about "only sprinters" teams, especially that from what I know PCM, the best doesn't always means the best scorer. I just looked at the stats only and composition of the team. Maybe that's the problem?


I mean, I promoted in my very first season with literally nothing but 85 sprint Bennati plus train. Pfft
 
dominox
cio93 wrote:
dominox wrote:
I agree that I might be to cruel with Delvaux. I'm just not so sure about "only sprinters" teams, especially that from what I know PCM, the best doesn't always means the best scorer. I just looked at the stats only and composition of the team. Maybe that's the problem?


I mean, I promoted in my very first season with literally nothing but 85 sprint Bennati plus train. Pfft

That's another thing I can take into considerations Wink
 
ivaneurope
TBF I don't think my team would get into Top 5 let alone Top 3 considering some teams even the newer ones got better riders than what I currently have. Also notice that many teams have the same goal on some races - like Giro del Trentino, Tour of Bulgaria and Vilnius GP to name a few. And TBF my team has better Hill stat than Cobbles.

It would seems that I'm downplaying my chances, but IMO Adastra - Argon 18 is going to be upper-midfield team at best (between 7-12th). Simply teams like Swissilion, Andorra and Oberfranken have either better quality or more depth, or are simply better all-rounder teams. Also bit harsh on Delvaux IMO putting them last just because they are lacking in other fields other than Flat/Sprint. It depends on which races has Sykkel_Freak chosen to compete and how he made his planner accordingy
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knockout
dominox wrote:
knockout wrote:
However, the final rankings prediction isnt looking too good. Teams are punished way too much for ignoring a terrain completely. e.g. in the mountains category your difference between 1st and 17th is smaller than the difference between 17th and 19th while during the season the best team on a terrain will score much more than the 17th best and the 17th best will score not much less than the 19th best. This leads to more one-dimensional teams dropping much lower than they should. Most extreme example is Delvaux who you have predicted on the last place despite saying that Guarnieri is in the fight for the individual rankings victory. Last season the winner of the individual CT rankings scored more than 10 of 24 teams so you should predict Delvaux at least midtable while I suspect they finish way higher than that.

Perhaps you should look at weighting the terrains a bit (e.g. best terrain counts double, worst terrain gets cut) or changing the scale (e.g. an average team scores a 5 on each terrain instead of 7-8) to give strong leaders a bigger effect on the rankings.

Hope you take this as feedback and i would be curious about a V2 of the rankings (maybe even without the points and just your opinion) if you want to look at it again. Thanks for your effort anyway Wink

Sure, every feedback is appreciated. I just didn't look at all in the Man-Game before. This is my first season and first serious looking at the teams. Didn't look exactly at the rankings, so you might be right. The difference in points in mountain is mostly because of lack of those riders at all.

Andorra has 80, 78, 77, 76 and few with lowers.
Compal has 80, 78, 76, two 75's and few lowers.
Oberfranken has 80, two 78's and two 76's.

17th Sauber has two 75's and one 74. Delvaux have nothing except one(!) puncheur with 70 MO and two youngsters with average of 69 with 70 MO. If so I could give 1 point. Just for those 70's Pfft

I agree that I might be to cruel with Delvaux. I'm just not so sure about "only sprinters" teams, especially that from what I know PCM, the best doesn't always means the best scorer. I just looked at the stats only and composition of the team. Maybe that's the problem?


Fair enough. My point basically was that having one 10 score (Guarnieri) and 0 zero score (no mountains) is worth more than two 7 scores (e.g 76 leaders in both categories). Dont worry too much about that as that happens in quite a few predictions that use something similar to your scores.
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Atlantius
Thanks for the preview. It's not an easy task making a balanced formula but I don't think you're to far off in most of the subrankings while having mainly looked at my own team.

I do think my sprint team is better than you make it and I wouldn't put König as the divisions best stage racer.

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Sykkel_Freak
Preview-season is here Grin Good job, dominox!

I think you're pretty much spot on with your 'best of' picks. The number one stage racer is probably the toughest one to predict, but I agree that König is arguably the best one in close competition with Kiserlovski. I think Sepulveda could be one to watch as well, despite having a bit weaker MO-stat than the aforementioned.

The point allocation in each terrain also looks pretty accurate. I would maybe rate my own team a bit higher in the hills, as Kadri and Vichot have some abilities that most of the higher rated punchuers don't have and thus can make up a bit for the slightly weaker hill stat. Definitely some question marks regarding that though, but that's what I'm hoping at least!

In terms of your ranking prediction, I hope you're very wrong Pfft As some others have mentioned, Guarnieri alone should see us out of bottom part of the table. But of course, I'm relying on the train to work out and the team to be strong enough to catch attackers, as the game definitely will have us do a lot of the work. That could be challenging as I have the minimum amount of riders, and lvl 1 loanees and stagiaires thus often will make up at least half the team. I do think we will score well enough on the cobbles and in the hills to not end last even if Guarnieri doesn't deliver on every occasion, though.

In terms of ignoring a couple of terrains, that's definitely a risk and there's no doubt we will lose out on points because of this compared to many of the top teams. Not only because we'll ride several C2HC races where we at the absolute most could achieve stage wins, but also because a limited C2 selection will see us having to ride more races at PCT level than most other CT teams. This will probably affect scoring as well, though I've tried to be smart with race selection to limit that loss as much as possible. In total, I do think placing us last is a bit harsh, but there's no doubt finishing as one of the top teams will be tough.
 
sammyt93
I think my team and delvaux are actually quite similar so it is surprising to see us rated at opposite ends of the table. They do have the standout sprinter who should be enough for a top 10 team standings finish if he doesn't waste race days, especially as there is no risk of him crashing out.

Salleh shouldn't be too far behind him though if he can repeat previous performances and our depth should mean we have a competitive sprinter leading us at every flat day we participate in, which they can say the same for even if guarnieri has limited race days and won't be able to attend them all.

On the cobbles we will be fairly even and same with the hills. Both teams have mainly skipped the mountains but we do have options that could get minor points whereas they don't but I doubt it will be a significant amount considering the depth of stronger climbers than what I have and how so of them will likely score less than expected due to the amount of similar strength guys that are leading sides. So skipping the mountains for most of the season could end up being a good move for both sides.

Only other difference is our TT strength which could help negate points lost to guarnieri but i'm not sure if that would be enough for us to beat them considering they have advantages in sprints and a small one on the hills.

I think they will likely finish around 7th with us roughly 9th but haven't had time for a full overview and prediction, just a gut feeling based on how both teams stack up compared to mine last year and how we did then.
 
redordead
Atlantius wrote:
Thanks for the preview. It's not an easy task making a balanced formula but I don't think you're to far off in most of the subrankings while having mainly looked at my own team.

I do think my sprint team is better than you make it and I wouldn't put König as the divisions best stage racer.


I think your sprint team is much better and yet we are ranked the same Rolling Eyes

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the_hoyle
Great CT preview and predictions. Doing a mathematical version opens up lots of questions, but I think you might have it close. Pinot as the best climber though is a big shout. I think there are others over him.

I will take a Top 5 finish for my team. That is our aim and I hope to good that I have the planning right to make it happen. I have some big names with pressure on their backs to perform. Bouncing back at the first chance will be a big step toward I want the team be in 3 seasons time.
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Ste117
Wow to win the division, first time someone has ever predicted us to do that Smile
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