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ICL18 - Previews & Statistics
jandal7
trekbmc wrote:
jandal7 wrote:
PSF is really unfair on Albini, clearly trying to stop him winning Pfft


Spagnoli's the same age and he has more than Albini. Pfft

Piss off Pfft
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
5x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x5
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
2x pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/funniest21.png x2
2x i.imgur.com/TUidkLG.png x2
 
Croatia14
Lovely idea Pfft We need more of this!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
Ripley
Cheers guys! Apart from being useless I wanted to give some love to those middle-of-the-pack-riders who are usually ignored. And there are some fun riders, too. Albini comes out top for you, Jandal, by being the most unbalanced rider in history. Yes, he is the best descender, but he's also the worst climber - MON 54! Grin He should have probably stuck with downhill mountain biking.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Shonak
Hehe very nice idea and write-up. Smile One-two seasons ago our 10th highest rider would have been far better but we lost depth this season. Oh well, still not relegating, that's enough.
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
jandal7
Ripley wrote:
Albini comes out top for you, Jandal, by being the most unbalanced rider in history. Yes, he is the best descender, but he's also the worst climber - MON 54! Grin He should have probably stuck with downhill mountain biking.

Shock To paraphrase the president, he is, like, really balanced! Just because he has a weakness does not make him unbalanced - he has great backups and a good hil/spr combo so back the hell away from my precious talents Pfft
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
5x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x5
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
2x pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/funniest21.png x2
2x i.imgur.com/TUidkLG.png x2
 
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trekbmc
jandal7 wrote:
Ripley wrote:
Albini comes out top for you, Jandal, by being the most unbalanced rider in history. Yes, he is the best descender, but he's also the worst climber - MON 54! Grin He should have probably stuck with downhill mountain biking.

Shock To paraphrase the president, he is, like, really balanced! Just because he has a weakness does not make him unbalanced - he has great backups and a good hil/spr combo so back the hell away from my precious talents Pfft


You know who's really balanced? Spagnoli. Pfft



"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
 
Croatia14
jandal7 wrote:
Ripley wrote:
Albini comes out top for you, Jandal, by being the most unbalanced rider in history. Yes, he is the best descender, but he's also the worst climber - MON 54! Grin He should have probably stuck with downhill mountain biking.

Shock To paraphrase the president, he is, like, really balanced! Just because he has a weakness does not make him unbalanced - he has great backups and a good hil/spr combo so back the hell away from my precious talents Pfft


a little mountain training in offseason and he'll look much better Cool
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
Ripley
A tough little ICL 2018 quiz


I found some more time yesterday to play around with the most current ICL database and have composed a small but probably difficult quiz for you all. Winner gets a cake, though the cake might be a lie. Answers and a bit more info in the spoilers (duh!):

Question 1: How many riders currently under contract in the ICL have surpassed their age of decline, independent of Potions of Youth?

A: 25B: 52C: 79

Spoiler
B: Samuel Sanchez and Fedrigo are now 40 years old and 7 years past their age of decline, both riders will finally end their careers after this season. Voeckler (6) is next, followed by Bennatti (5). Kvasina, Knees and Cancellara are 4 years over, none of these riders received a potion of youth. Only 5 of the 52 have had that luxury, none more so than Contador with 4 potions, so he's on par to still be at his best at the age of 37 next season.


Question 2: How many riders who qualify for the U23 (are 23 years old or younger) are already racing at professional level?

A: 47B: 73C: 136

Spoiler
C: Four are just 19 years old, Estdahl, Pichlmann, Andres Cruz and Savage. Nine are 20 years old, 23 are 21 years old. The three weakest professionals by AVG are 19 or 20, Savage (61.8), Bell (62.3), and Cruz (62.6). The fourth weakest was in the above group, Kvasina (63.4) is the only other rider below AVG 64.


Question 3: AVG 69.0 is coded light green, so I'll use that as a cut-off point. How many hired riders on the professional circuit (so excluding U23 teams) have an AVG below 69.0?

A: 49B: 76C: 98

Spoiler
B: Most of them belong in the group above (23 or younger), twelve are already at least 33 years old , just three are in between, either 24 or 25 years old (Eastmond, Pousa and Frackowiak).


Question 4: At the top end of the scale AVG 79.0 turns red. So, how many riders have reached the magic number? Since it's the easiest question in this quiz the range of the multiple choice options is very small.

A:28B:30C:31

Spoiler
A: Just 28 riders, starting with Porte (79.1) to the three big dogs Froome, Contador and Nibali (81.7)


Question 5: How many riders boast a loyalty of 5, that is, have been with the same team in all ICL seasons so far?

A: 27B: 47C: 74

Spoiler
C: 74 riders. For more, see the next question.


Question 6: And which team has kept most of its original roster since starting in 2014?

A: Filliers – Mora (Ollfardh)B: Bunzl – Centrica (brewers90)C: Vegeta Cycling Team (SSJ2Luigi)

Spoiler
A: Filiers-Mora still have 15 of the riders they picked at the start of the ICL. They are followed by Vegeta (14), Bunzl (13) and Team Cymru Wales (12). At the other end of the table we might have teams who have not held onto anybody, but that's difficult for me to look up, so please come forward and confess. My whole list contains nine teams: For Italo-Ventilair, Sabatini is the only rider to survive from the original squad. Liberty-Seguros has three riders left, Allianz four, Carbonsports five and Ceramica Panaria seven riders.


Question 7: How many nations are represented by just one rider in the ICL, that is, are under contract with a team, including U23?

A: 12B: 24C: 36

Spoiler
B: Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bolivia, Brunei, Caymans, Chile, El Salvador, Gabun, Georgia, Iceland, Kenya (no, not Froome), Mauritius, Oman, Peru, Philippines, San Marino, Surinam, Syria, Thailand, Tunesia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Zimbabwe.


Question 8: How many riders are from the country most represented among hired riders, including U23? Bonus question: And which country is it?

A: 88B: 99C: 111

Spoiler
A: Looking at the whole ICL database Belgium comes out top with 351 riders. But counting only riders under contract, Italy wins with 88 riders. Belgium is next with 72 riders, then France (69), Holland (67), Spain (62), Germany (57), Great Britain (50) and USA (46).


Question 9: How many riders under contract have a potential of 3 or less?

A: 17B: 35C: 62

Spoiler
C: None with potential 1, four with potential 2 (Vermeersch, Handley, Tomaszewski and Marco Dimic), 58 with potential 3.


And finally question 10: This one I have the feeling at least one of you nerds knows already, how many riders have a potential of 7?

A: 53B: 61C: 75

Spoiler
B: One is only 19 years old (Alex Ortega), three are 20 (Dumont, Preciado, Husillos). Rolland is the oldest at 32, the Norwegians Boasson Hagen and Kristoff are 31, Vanmarcke, Kittel and Van Garderen are 30.


I hope that was fun and informative.
Edited by Ripley on 25-01-2018 09:08
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
AbhishekLFC
A little late to the party (and I haven't read the quiz yet, but I love it) but an awesome preview you put up there Ripley.

And Bauhaus has some proving to do at the Vuelta. And I'm sure he wont do it Grin Also, 12th would be fine for the first year in PT!
 
TheManxMissile
ESV = El Salvador
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
Shonak
Samu Sanchez :boss:

Another fun little statistics & quiz, thanks Ripley. Didn't answer a single question right Banana
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Croatia14
Cool stuff. I started late to the party, but still I have only 1 rider left from my starting team. Good old Stanislau Bazhkou Banana Had quite a journey though from a baltics team to mid-europe to Colombia, hence focus changed quite a lot. And my team in the first year was awful, hence Buchko should be the guy with the second longest streak at our team (Scouting in the first year).
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
Ripley
Thanks, Manxmissile, should have thought of that myself. Still, not official NATO code. Smile

So here is the last little statistic I present for now, the best riders per year of birth as well as the number of riders per birthyear. I excluded the U23 for a nicer distribution:

Yearno.NameAVG
19782S. Sanchez71.4
19791Voeckler71.4
19801Bennati69.3
19813Cancellara76.0
19825Contador81.7
198312Van den Broeck76.7
198428Nibali81.7
198544Froome81.7
198649D. Martin79.4
198758Kristoff78.4
198857Vanmarcke80.9
198985Majka80.5
199076N. Quintana81.2
199192Barguil80.9
199280S. Yates78.8
199370Van Poppel79.3
199480Herklotz78.0
199551Van der Poel76.4
199650Spagnoli74.0
199723J. Pulido73.2
19989I. Martin69.2
19994Estdahl65.8


i.imgur.com/zQM0yzu.png

I guess I should have reversed the x-axis so the younger riders are on the left, but this'll have to do.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ollfardh
Loved the quiz, even though I didn't get much right Pfft

Van Poppel also doing great, being better than the guys of 1992.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
jandal7
Estdahl and Majka <3

Plus four riders who I made steal attempts on! sorry again Sad
Edited by jandal7 on 25-01-2018 09:18
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
5x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x5
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
2x pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/funniest21.png x2
2x i.imgur.com/TUidkLG.png x2
 
Ripley
Cheers, by design the quiz was too hard, it was just a fun way to present some obscure stats. I wouldn't believe anybody who claimed he got all the answers right. Smile

I knew the new table would finally make you happy, Jandal. Smile
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Shonak
Love these stats. Very nice idea, again. Pulido and Van der Poel benefit a bit from early training so I cheated a bit there Wink
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Ripley
Two CT rankings for the price of one


While my WT prediction was pretty silly, I've tried to come up with something a little more serious for the CT and offer two different rankings. They are purely mathematical and simple enough for my ever diminishing math skills. They are waaay simpler than Abhishek's work, of course.

Both rankings use weighted averages for the best 6 riders per CT team. 6 riders was a gut feeling, some teams mostly rely on just one or two riders to bring home the bacon, others count more on their depth, their 8 or 10 top riders.

I then took the AVG ratings of the 6 riders per team and didn't just compile their average AVG, but weighed them (WAVG): 6/21 for the top rider, 5/21 for the second best, and so on down to 1/21 for the 6th best rider. This places a strong emphasis on the captains, here's the result:

#TeamWAVG
1Vittel – Havas76.98
2Wilier Triestina76.51
3Balkan Project76.49
4Statoil76.38
5Aviva76.27
6Cymru Wales76.26
7Wiggle76.21
8Credit Suisse76.17
9Spidertech76.10
10CCC76.08
11WWE75.90
12Pedal Africa75.74
13Jeep Pro75.65
14Trek75.44
15Vegeta75.39
16Cool Runnings75.39
17Veranclassic75.25
18Polestar75.20
19An Post75.16
20ICBC74.50
21Bosch74.41


Then I came up with a slightly more novel way of ranking the same riders using the same weights: I made a new table where I rank all 426 CT riders by their AVG and compiled the actual rankings in that table for the same 6 riders per team (WPOS). Here's the result:

#TeamWPOS
1Vittel – Havas24.8
2Cymru Wales30.7
3Aviva32.5
4Wilier Triestina32.8
5CCC34.5
6Credit Suisse34.6
7Wiggle36.1
8Statoil39.0
9Jeep Pro46.5
10WWE46.7
11Pedal Africa46.9
12Spidertech47.1
13Balkan Project48.3
14Trek52.0
15Polestar67.4
16Veranclassic69.4
17Vegeta70.0
18An Post75.3
19Cool Runnings87.9
20ICBC102.1
21Bosch148.1


Vittel comes out top either way especially thanks to Toni Martin, the no. 1 rider by AVG by quite some margin. My simple ranking method does not account for the fact he's "only" a TT specialist, though I'm sure he will score very well regardless, his other stats are nothing to sneer at in the CT.

In the WPOS ranking Cmyru is next, better than the weighted AVGs of their six riders would suggest, but as a group they are strong. The Balkan Cycling Project swings the other way, 3rd by WAVG, but only 13th by WPOS. They have two very strong riders, Rui Costa and Nerz, who bring the weighted AVG up, but the other four are relatively poor and drag the team down in the weighted positional rankings. Similarly, Statoil rely a little too heavily on Guardini, he brings the team up to 4th in the WAVG, but the rest of the top 6 pull them down to 8th in the WPOS.

Bosch isn't helped either way. Herklotz is a top rider and who knows, maybe he alone can bring in enough points so the team finishes higher. But already their second best rider, Auer, only has an AVG 73.5, and the ranking reflects that either way. Polestar is a team which would have done better had I taken the top 9 riders into account, Nordhaug is their 9th rider and he isn't at all bad. They are low down the totem pole by WAVG, but the WPOS ranking shows some of their depth. It's even more true for CCC, who even have 12 riders who could score well (!). 10th by WAVG certainly doesn't do them justice and even WPOS is too limited for their team.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Yellow Jersey
I like that prediction Smile
But seriously great preview.. And it does give me a lot of confidence. Martin is undoubtedly a great leader but obviously I need a good team to back him up and perform well when he's not there. Hopefully they can get the handle of it, especially Jeanesson and Khozatayev
 
Bikex
January preview moved to the next page.

Sorry for missing mini jerseys in the preview they'll be added once I found a way to have them uploaded with their filename as link.
Edited by Bikex on 02-02-2018 19:19
 
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