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Tour of Norway Discussion
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 16-01-2018 05:15
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A race with a little something for everyone, the Tour of Norway should be decided on Stages 3 and 4. With a length of nearly 30 km, the ITT on Stage 3 will be a paradise for the specialists. There is not a dent on the road in sight! Those same time-trialists will then try to hold on to their lead on the hilly Stage 4. The punchers will be licking their lips at the sight of this stage. The final climb, which the pack will summit twice, before a short ride to the finish is where most of the selection is likely to happen.
As for the sprinters, Stage 1 and 2 are tailor-made for them and it is very unlikely that a breakaway can survive here. Stage 5 is more of a challenge with two challenging climbs and a number of bumps as the riders approach the finish.
Last year, it was a time-trial specilaist Jacob Fiedler, who took the win for Berg (erstwhile Karcher-Adira). Will a time-trialist win this year too, or will a puncher triumph?
| Name | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | SPR | ACC |  | Coppel | 76 | 83 | 78 | 78 | 74 | 65 | 74 |  | Trofimov | 82 | 76 | 79 | 77 | 77 | 73 | 75 |  | Costa | 80 | 76 | 73 | 72 | 72 | 69 | 72 |  | De Bie | 82 | 72 | 77 | 76 | 69 | 72 | 75 | | Boom | 75 | 78 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 61 | 75 |  | Kuboki | 73 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 71 | 77 | 77 |  | Kelderman | 82 | 70 | 80 | 75 | 73 | 67 | 72 |  | Gonzalez Cortes | 74 | 74 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 71 | 72 |  | Roche | 79 | 71 | 77 | 74 | 75 | 68 | 71 |  | Brändle | 71 | 79 | 73 | 73 | 72 | 60 | 69 | | Bazhkou | 75 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 71 | 63 | 64 |  | Hadi | 72 | 74 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 74 | 71 |
Coppel and Trofimov come into this race as the top favourites. While the former is among the top 2 Time Trialists in the world, the latter is among the best punchers in this race, and is competitive against the clock. Coppel is no slouch on the hills either.
Costa is the next best bet, with good skills in both the decisive terrains. His support stats are a little weaker than the top duo.
De Bie and Kelderman are the best punchers, alongside Trofimov, but their lower TT skills will mean they'll probably have some catching up to do after Stage 3.
Brandle and Boom are the best TTers in this group, apart from Coppel. Boom is an able puncher and this might give him an edge over the Isostar rider.
Kuboki is the best sprinter in the list of favourites. If it comes down to a situation wherein the GC is close on Stage 5, he might be able to pull off a sprinting success to get back some time. This is unlikely though, given the strength of the sprinters' field, highlighted later.
Some of the other favourites are mentioned in the table above.
| Name | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | SPR | ACC |  | Sanchez Gil | 77 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 59 | 72 | | Debesay | 73 | 72 | 74 | 78 | 69 | 69 | 78 |  | Reimer | 75 | 68 | 77 | 70 | 77 | 77 | 80 | | Kwok | 62 | 79 | 74 | 73 | 71 | 74 | 76 |  | Boswell | 80 | 67 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 65 | 76 | | Mugerli | 75 | 71 | 74 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 72 |  | Goncalves | 71 | 78 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 57 | 65 | | Vlatos | 64 | 81 | 73 | 71 | 67 | 67 | 66 |  | Moazemi | 78 | 69 | 72 | 72 | 75 | 65 | 73 |
The table above highlights some other riders who might be in contention for a high GC placement, if things go their way.
| Name | SPR | ACC | | Ahlstrand | 83 | 82 | | Coquard | 82 | 83 | | Ciolek | 83 | 79 | | Grosu | 82 | 80 |  | Howard | 82 | 79 | | Guerao | 83 | 76 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 |  | Moser | 80 | 79 |  | Drapac | 80 | 79 |  | Keukeleire | 80 | 79 | | Van Poppel | 80 | 78 | | Lavoine | 80 | 78 | | Porsev | 79 | 80 | | Boivin | 79 | 80 |  | Serebriakov | 80 | 77 |  | Vanoverschelde | 80 | 75 |
The sprinter field in this race is extremely strong. It is unlikely that a sprinter will win the overall title, but they have the opportunity to pick up important points on three stages. The big fight is likely to be between Ahlstrand, Coquard and Ciolek, although the latter does lack a powerful acceleration compared to his rivals. Ahlstrand loves this race, having won three stages here in the past two editions.
| Name | TT | PRL | | Coppel | 83 | 83 | | Vlatos | 81 | 81 | | Sütterlin | 80 | 80 | | Van Winden | 80 | 80 | | Dillier | 80 | 79 | | Brändle | 79 | 79 | | Kwok | 79 | 79 | | Haugard | 79 | 79 | | Boom | 78 | 78 | | Goncalves | 78 | 66 |
On paper, Festina should dominate the TT, and this should also be the platform for Coppel to challenge for the GC win. He will be looking to emulate Fiedler from last year's edition. Vlatos is favoured to follow his teammate home in the ITT. Their biggest challengers will be Sutterlin, Van Winden and Dillier. Also keep an eye out Brandle and Boom, who have GC ambitions.
| Name | HIL | ACC | | Trofimov | 82 | 75 | | De Bie | 82 | 75 | | Koretzky | 80 | 79 |  | Gautier | 80 | 77 | | Kelderman | 82 | 72 | | Boswell | 80 | 76 | | Betancourt | 80 | 74 | | Bystrom | 79 | 76 | | Costa | 80 | 72 | | Zaini | 80 | 70 | | Roche | 79 | 71 | | Reichenbach | 79 | 69 | | Klemme | 80 | 66 | | Levarlet | 79 | 68 | | Vogt | 80 | 63 |
Most of the punchers will need to have a special day on Stage 4 if they are to bring back their deficit from the TT. This does not hold true for Trofimov though as he can hope to remain in touch after Stage 3. The same can be said of Costa. Does the hills provide enough bite for the punchers to turn the tables on the Time Trialists? Only time will tell...
Spoiler | Last Name | First Name | Team | | De Bie | Sean | Aegon - Lavazza | | Boom | Lars | Aegon - Lavazza | | Thurau | Björn | Aegon - Lavazza | | Weiss | Martin | Aegon - Lavazza | | Bovenhuis | Jasper | Aegon - Lavazza | | Bauhaus | Phil | Aegon - Lavazza | | Orue | German Anibal | Aegon - Lavazza | | van der Hoorn | Taco | Aegon - Lavazza | | Costa | Rui | Berg Cycles | | Paulinho | Pedro Miguel | Berg Cycles | | Vogt | Mario | Berg Cycles | | Kupfernagel | Danilo | Berg Cycles | | McEvoy | Jonathan | Berg Cycles | | Portela | Marcio | Berg Cycles | | Brandão | Jóni | Berg Cycles | | Frohlinger | Johannes | Berg Cycles | | Grosu | Eduard | eBuddy | | Boswell | Ian | eBuddy | | Van Poppel | Danny | eBuddy | | Te Brake | Remco | eBuddy | | Majka | Rafel | eBuddy | | Walsleben | Philipp | eBuddy | | Calmejane | Lilian | eBuddy | | Roosen | Timo | eBuddy | | Debesay | Mekseb | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Teklit | Tesfar | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Venter | Jaco | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Hategeka | Gasore | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Hadi | Janvier | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Craven | Dan | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Kiflay | Metkel | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Hamza | Faycal | Eritel - Sonatrach | | Roche | Nicolas | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Lavoine | Anthony | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Shapira | Idan | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Bodnar | Maciej | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Zielinski | Kamil | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Feillu | Brice | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Margaliot | Ran | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Matysiak | Bartlomiej | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | Coppel | Jerome | Festina - Dexia | | Koretzky | Clement | Festina - Dexia | | Coquard | Bryan | Festina - Dexia | | Vlatos | Panagiotis | Festina - Dexia | | Alaphilippe | Julian | Festina - Dexia | | Roy | Jérémy | Festina - Dexia | | Taramarcaz | Julien | Festina - Dexia | | Stocker | Manuel | Festina - Dexia | | Levarlet | Guillaume | Haute Route - Mavic | | Keukeleire | Jens | Haute Route - Mavic | | Bakari | Amadou | Haute Route - Mavic | | Ayoune | Ismail | Haute Route - Mavic | | Hussein | Mujtaba | Haute Route - Mavic | | Tzortzakis | Polychronis | Haute Route - Mavic | | Barbier | Rudy | Haute Route - Mavic | | Ben Youcef | Abdalla | Haute Route - Mavic | | Moser | Moreno | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Nateghi | Hossein | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Chawchiangkuang | Peerapol | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Pranata | Jimmy | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Le Roux | Romain | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Bettiol | Alberto | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Hamilton | Chris | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Kulimbetov | Nurbolat | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | Brändle | Matthias | Isostar - Adriatic | | Quevedo | Xavier | Isostar - Adriatic | | Giaux | Jérome | Isostar - Adriatic | | Mugerli | Matej | Isostar - Adriatic | | Bazhkou | Stanislau | Isostar - Adriatic | | Bostner | Jaka | Isostar - Adriatic | | Laas | Martin | Isostar - Adriatic | | Jaramillo | Daniel Alexander | Isostar - Adriatic | | Mehr-Wenige | Dietmar | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Scheit | Florian | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Maikin | Roman | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Bontenackels | Thomas | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Irvine | Martyn | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Terasaki | Takero | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Denz | Nico | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Politt | Nils | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Zaini | Tommy | Meiji - JR East | | Kuboki | Kazushige | Meiji - JR East | | Kwok | Ho-Ting | Meiji - JR East | | Mutsumine | Wataru | Meiji - JR East | | Shirota | Yamato | Meiji - JR East | | Hatsuyama | Sho | Meiji - JR East | | Nonaka | Ryoma | Meiji - JR East | | Tsubaki | Hiroshi | Meiji - JR East | | Betancourt | Carlos | Minions | | Selander | Bjorn | Minions | | Drapac | Damion | Minions | | Milan | Diego | Minions | | Kinney | Nick | Minions | | Weiss | Ethan | Minions | | Sinclair | Shaquille | Minions | | Mraouni | Salah Eddine | Minions | | Van Winden | Dennis | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Vanoverschelde | Kobe | MOL - OMV Petrom | | King | Ben | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Fejes | Gabor | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Rybalkin | Aleksey | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Sipos | Zoltan | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Mamykin | Matvey | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Kenyeres | Abel | MOL - OMV Petrom | | Sanchez Gil | Luis Leon | Netia - Vónin | | Rabottini | Matteo | Netia - Vónin | | Honkisz | Adrian | Netia - Vónin | | Stachowiak | Adam | Netia - Vónin | | Mørkøv | Michael | Netia - Vónin | | Bernas | Pawel | Netia - Vónin | | Kasperkiewicz | Przemyslaw | Netia - Vónin | | Veyhe | Torkil | Netia - Vónin | | Klemme | Domenik | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Serebriakov | Aleksandr | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Gavazzi | Francesco | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Pozdnyakov | Kirill | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Pasqualon | Andrea | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Rabon | Frantisek | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Tarvis | Peeter | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Grossschartner | Felix | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | Seboka | Matala | Project: Africa | | Gebrezgabihier | Amanuel | Project: Africa | | Summerhill | Danny | RBC Pro Cycling | | Howard | Leigh | RBC Pro Cycling | | Boivin | Guillaume | RBC Pro Cycling | | Young | Eric | RBC Pro Cycling | | Morizot | Florian | RBC Pro Cycling | | Keough | Luke | RBC Pro Cycling | | Naud | Patrick | RBC Pro Cycling | | Matte | Charles | RBC Pro Cycling | | Guerao | Óscar | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Moazemi | Arvin | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Boonratanathanakorn | Thurakit | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Haidar Anuawar | Ahmad | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Suryadi | Bambang | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Sirironnachai | Sarawut | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Fabbro | Matteo | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Manamalage | Nipuna Shira | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | Ahlstrand | Jonas | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Bystrom | Sven Erik | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Reimer | Martin | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Kvist | Thomas Vedel | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Haugard | Phan Age | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Ludvigsson | Fredrik | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Johansson | Freddy | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Stenersen | Sten | Spotify - Haglöfs | | Kelderman | Wilco | Team Puma - SAP | | Ciolek | Gerald | Team Puma - SAP | | Lander | Sebastian | Team Puma - SAP | | Felline | Fabio | Team Puma - SAP | | Sütterlin | Jasha | Team Puma - SAP | | Weber | Sascha | Team Puma - SAP | | Bol | Jetse | Team Puma - SAP | | Heider | Johannes | Team Puma - SAP | | Costagli | Teodoro | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Ortega | Sergio | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Quintana | Dayer | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Sakalou | Andrei | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Jeannesson | Arnold | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Gonzalez Cortes | Josue | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Rojas Villegas | César | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Raileanu | Cristian | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | Reichenbach | Sebastien | Team UBS | | Dillier | Silvan | Team UBS | | Goncalves | Jose | Team UBS | | Frank | Matthias | Team UBS | | Fumeaux | Jonathan | Team UBS | | Schir | Théry | Team UBS | | Ramos Ticona | Basilio | Team UBS | | Braico | Alexandr | Team UBS | | Trofimov | Yuri | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Sulimov | Alexander | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Porsev | Alexander | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Chernetskiy | Sergey | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Zakarin | Ilnur | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Gusev | Vladimir | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Foliforov | Alexander | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Shalunov | Evgeny | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | Gautier | Cyril | Valio - DeLaval | | Manninen | Matti | Valio - DeLaval | | Kulppi | Olli | Valio - DeLaval | | Vinther | Troels | Valio - DeLaval | | Paajanen | Paavo | Valio - DeLaval | | Lindau | Philip | Valio - DeLaval | | Tiainen | Sami | Valio - DeLaval |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 16-01-2018 05:29
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Forgot we had Sanchez here, he hasn't really done much aside from his Polonge stage win, so I won't really expect much, but it's good to know we have a leader. 
Love the move to bring Guerao here, I was considering sending Vantomme here instead of Olympia in the same sort of vein.
Boom to win please - would be awesome.  And thanks for the fantastic preview Abhishek! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 16-01-2018 05:55
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PTHC, so a lot of possibilities for a lot of points. But the field is most likely too strong for Betancourt and Drapac should've been in Olympia.
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| roturn |
Posted on 16-01-2018 06:29
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Really hope those two hill stages are ridden as hard as possible, so that De Bie can fight for podium. More likely a top10 only, then I hope Boom as well in top5.
Coppel likely to win with Trofimov, Costa, Boom being big danger for the podium.
Very hard to predict really with this hill/TT mix.
But interesting looking startlist. For me this should be a very good race. At least I hope so. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 14:08
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 16-01-2018 06:44
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Finally a HI/TT race, that I can follow with no pressure.
Cheering for Coppel!
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| SotD |
Posted on 16-01-2018 06:45
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It was a bit difficult to read this route I think, so I brought the best of all possible outcomes except for Spilak.
Bryan Coquard for the sprints with probably having Coppel, Koretzky and Stocker as his leadouts if one is built.
Then Coppel and Vlatos to pick up as many stage points from the TT as possible and then Koretzky, Roy, Alaphilippe and Taramarcaz to hopefully help Coppel stay with the best in the decisive stage 4, while also putting up a good fight on stage 5, which could go to a breakaway or late attack.
We hope for atleast top 3 in the GC, and atleast one stagewin with another 2 top 3's from either the sprint stages or Vlatos in the TT.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 16-01-2018 08:25
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Not expecting much here, despite the surprising presence of Hadi on the favourites list. Breakaways for time bonuses may be the best bet, for Debesay or my trio of puncheurs. Hard to predict how uch gaps Stage 4 can cause.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 16-01-2018 08:33
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I don't think Boswell can finish in the top 10 here, but Grosu should be in contention for victories in the flat stages.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 16-01-2018 09:42
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Top 10 is the max we can get from here for sure. Lavoine will not be able to do much either
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| tastasol |
Posted on 16-01-2018 09:57
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Wanted to go here, but couldn't really fit the band in. Oh well, should be an interesting race to follow. Trofimov the man to beat for me.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 16-01-2018 09:59
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I played this route a lot in various career modes and there, stage 4 always remained fairly unselective with a 10-20 rider group sprinting for the win, and stage 5 always went to a breakaway.
I prefer to be proven wrong though, since we need Kelderman to make up time on better TTers and stage 5 could be interesting for Felline.
We brought a team capable of finishing Top 5 in every single stage and the GC, so that needs to be the goal. This is where we gotta start clawing back points to the teams in front. We can't allow stage 4 to be boring.
Ciolek even got his sprint train here for once, I hope that'll be utilized. Kelderman has Felline, Bol and Heider for support and Sütterlin can't wait to attack white even for just a day.
Coppel will win this.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 16-01-2018 11:27
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Stage win(s) and pts jersey would be realistic?
I sure hope we see us create a train with those guys, Kvist-Reimer-Ahlstrand could be deadly.
No real hope for a decent GC place our puncher is to weak on TT and our TT guys to weak on hills. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 17-01-2018 05:31
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Backwheel bug  Oh well, I very much enjoyed that sprint train and there was no bad surprise after launching.
Congrats Spotify! We'll try to get back at you later on
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 17-01-2018 05:55
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We are pretty bad at getting in breaks, but at least Veyhe tried and we finally got to see his jersey.
Good sprint for Ahlstrand, I like too see him win, especially in Scandinavia (although I maintain that he shouldn't be here because every time I told a Swede that I was going to Norway, they looked at me and said something along the lines of "Why would you want to go there?" ), anyway, Grats Viking!
And thanks for the great report Abhishek!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 17-01-2018 06:00
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Congrats rob spotify! Ahlstrand far too good. Nice to see Gamikton make it into the break again, he's got quite the knack for picking the break that gets away. Tsmoha should be happy
Moser scraping into the top 10 is about where you'd expect, so a decent first day out.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| SotD |
Posted on 17-01-2018 06:33
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So close to getting 4th and the U25 jersey which was one of our main priorities. 5th is OK I guess, but definately not an overwhelming result looking at the position Coquard was in, picking the right wheel and all.
Looking at the images I saw another Festina rider delivering him on that wheel, and seeing Coppel in 20th makes me guess he was the one doing that perfect positioning-job for us.
No complains, but we would have liked a little bit more out of this.
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 17-01-2018 06:43
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11th 13th 15th right erm that's just bizzare and the order makes no real sense seems like possibly Howard and Boivon lost Young's wheel but anyone's guess |
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| jaxika |
Posted on 17-01-2018 07:01
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But...but... what happened to Van Winden? |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 17-01-2018 07:10
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There was no crash that I picked up on. Must've been a very bad day!
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| Heine |
Posted on 17-01-2018 08:06
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That was a nice and tight sprint  Well done by Ahlstrand! Congrats VIking
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