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Paris - Nice Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:15
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Welcome to 2017 Paris - Nice presentation act! Eight days of pure racing from the north to the south-east of France which will see an epic battle between the best puncheurs in the world.
The race starts with a couple of flat stages, before the 16-km TT. Most of the best TTers will be here trying to get the win, while the puncheurs will have to limit their losses against some riders who can both climb and TT.
From there, in four out five stages the GC riders will have to battle for the win in variated routes, but all with the hills in common.
The main favourite should be  Yuri Trofimov. The Russian has been the dominator of this type of races in the last years, and despite having started to decline, he is still one of the best puncheurs in the world. Although he would need to get a big advantage in the TT to be able to keep behind him the better puncheurs in the pure hilly stages.
The same type of rider as Trofimov, but a little bit weaker, is  Jack Bobridge. As the Tinkoff rider, Bobridge will need to use his TT skills at his best to win the race.
In the same level of favouritism, the two best puncheurs in the world;  Jan Bakelants and  Simone Ponzi. If they are able to limit their losses in the TT, they will be the main favourite due to being the best puncheurs and also thanks to their sprinting abilities, which might make them win bonus seconds in the finales
One level (or two) behind the race favourites, we have four puncheurs who normally should fight for a top5, but if someone of those ahead of them fails, they'll be fighting for the podium.  De Bie is the better TTer of them, but is also someone who should struggle after lots of race days.  Ginanni,  Skujins and  Lutsenko are worse TTers, but are better in the hills.
Other riders that should do great in this race are  Boswell,  Koretzky, Gautier, Beltran. Izagirre and  Vakoc
| Rider | HIL | TT | Rider | HIL | TT | | Trofimov | 82 | 76 | Bakelants | 84 | 67 | | Ponzi | 84 | 68 | Bobridge | 83 | 77 | | De Bie | 82 | 72 | Ginanni | 83 | 65 | | Lutsenko | 81 | 68 | Skujins | 83 | 59 | | Coppel | 76 | 83 | Kangert | 77 | 77 | | Boswell | 80 | 67 |  Demare | 79 | 61 |  Kudus | 76 | 72 | Beltran | 79 | 66 | | Vakoc | 80 | 69 | Gautier | 80 | 64 | | Koretzky | 80 | 61 | Pichon | 79 | 64 | | Vanendert | 78 | 71 |  Nepomnyachsniy | 74 | 77 |  Jensen | 78 | 67 | Izagirre | 79 | 77 |
Now we move to the sprinter field. They have three stages favorable to them, and this means that we have here most of the top sprinters in PT.
Swift and Degenkolb lead the sprinters here, both with almost full support from their squad. Riders as Ahlstrand,  Howard, Kristoff or Coquard should be their biggest threats in the sprints
| Rider | SPR | ACC | HIL | Rider | SPR | ACC | HIL | | Swift | 84 | 82 | 68 | Degenkolb | 84 | 81 | 69 | | Ahlstrand | 83 | 82 | 67 | Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 68 |  Avelino | 83 | 78 | 64 | Coquard | 82 | 83 | 65 | | Grosu | 82 | 80 | 73 | Howard | 82 | 79 | 68 | | Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 64 | Van Heerden | 82 | 73 | 68 | | Boeckmans | 81 | 83 | 68 | Roelandts | 81 | 80 | 71 | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 69 | Saber | 81 | 79 | 68 | | Demare | 80 | 81 | 79 |  Stauff | 80 | 81 | 65 |  Van der Lijke | 80 | 79 | 75 |  Petit | 80 | 78 | 65 |
And at the end, the time-trialists. They have the Stage 3 to give points to their team, with Festina being the strongest team here in that discipline, with both Coppel and Vlatos in their team. Clashing with Tirreno and its TTT, we see here very few top TTers, with only 4 riders that normally could fight for wins in PT level
| Rider | TT | RES | Rider | TT | RES | | Coppel | 83 | 78 | Vlatos | 81 | 71 | | Howson | 80 | 74 | Paillot | 80 | 74 | | Predatsch | 77 | 77 | Kangert | 77 | 75 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 75 | Bobridge | 77 | 74 | | Oram | 77 | 72 | Izagirre | 77 | 72 | | Trofimov | 76 | 77 | Reis | 76 | 76 |
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Posted on 07-12-2025 16:40
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| viking90 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:26
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Top quality sprinters here last time in Qatar our leadout guys did not help Ahlstrand at all, can we see some train this time maybe?
Haugard Jensen fighting for Top 20 GC wise or trying for a stage. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:33
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Key race for Jayco. Simple like that.
Bobridge used to do well in stage races so far, despite his not too overwhelming backup stats. Anyway, with a TT and his new 83 HI stat, there's no excuse for not finishing the race in the Top-5 at least. Would rather see a podium ofc  after Morton crashed in his first key race of the season, I pray for Bobridge to avoid stuff like that here.
Saber probably won't be much of a factor in the sprints, but who knows? Maybe he has a superb day. Really looking forward to this race, don't let me down, guys 
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| cio93 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:44
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All-in for Demare here, possibly the first time ever that he's our sprint and GC leader at the same race.
The TT will cost dearly, but I hope consistent riding and overcoming the likely stage 8 mo/hil ratio will give him some okayish GC points to add to hopefully some good stage results. Top 20 maybe?
Felline, Mager and Chevrier are decent support.
Stages 2 and 6 should be to his liking in particular, good positioning behind a strong train will prove crucial to then use the extra energy he can save.
Maybe stage 5 doesn't provide gaps either, and the final stage usually sees a big group sprinting it out behind a breakaway, so ideally there's something to get from these days too.
With the team's focus on Grand-Duché for Kelderman and TA for our climber core, anything gained from this race is a bonus thanks to our good depth. On the other hand, secretly I hoped this could turn into a race similar to Van Stayen's Deutschland Tour last season...
Tough to look past Trofitruffle vs Bobsled here.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:54
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Hoping AKA does some good work for Ahlstrand here if he gets a leadout train!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 10-11-2017 16:56
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All of a sudden I feel a lot less sorry for not having Nepomnyachsniy in the Tirreno! There may actually be some very decent points for a team like ours up for grabs, especially with Vanderbiest not being too hopeless in the sprints either! Would most certainly take a top 25 here, but with some luck a top 15 may be not be out of reach.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| ember |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:00
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Afraid for Kristoff in the sprints here, I must say. He struggles immediately when other sprinters with considerably better acceleration lines up next to him, and the field here is pretty strong with Ahlstrand, Swift, Degenkolb and Coquard probably being the top guys.
Though, I'm very excited to see what my team can do from stage three and onwards. Brought both Dyrnes and Hoelgaard here as breakaway riders, so hopefully they're allowed to be aggressive on the hilly stages, and not ride in support or Beltran, who will have his real test now, considering his bad performances in the first two hilly races of the season.
Fancy Trofimov or Bobridge for the overall win, with stage 7 being the obvious key, with the steep finish. On paper that should suit Beltran very well too, but I'm afraid he has given away far too much time in the TT. Though, a top 15 must be the minimum here looking at the puncheurs present. |
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| roturn |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:06
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Normally top10 and at least 1 stage win would be goal.
With how Tirreno and Badaling were playing out, I want a top5 and minimum 1 stage win here. On paper not impossible.
Looking forward to the reports. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:06
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This better be a good race after plenty of disappointments so far. Skujins should be the 5th best guy here even despite the short TT. Thought long about sending Van Stayen here as well but ultimately decided against it. I hope that doesn't bite me but looking at the expected strong sprinter field that could have been a good decision.
That TT list is a joke. seeing so many TTists in Italy instead is crazy. Without having looked at the individual teams too much that looks like a little planning mistake for some of them.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:27
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knockout wrote:
That TT list is a joke. seeing so many TTists in Italy instead is crazy. Without having looked at the individual teams too much that looks like a little planning mistake for some of them.
Well to be fair, a 5th place in this TT is worth 5 ranking points which is less than the difference of 1 GC spot over in Tirreno for anything above 12th.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:34
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Sending Boswell here? Bad idea.
Sending Grosu here? Even worse 
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:36
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Tbf, most of the 78-80 TT riders belongs to teams with top GC hopes in Tirreno, so it made sense to use them in Tirreno's TTT than in Nice
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-11-2017 17:56
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cio93 wrote:
knockout wrote:
That TT list is a joke. seeing so many TTists in Italy instead is crazy. Without having looked at the individual teams too much that looks like a little planning mistake for some of them.
Well to be fair, a 5th place in this TT is worth 5 ranking points which is less than the difference of 1 GC spot over in Tirreno for anything above 12th.
It's not only 5 points, it's the ( little ) chance to score big by podiuming the stage that's adding further points while the few extra seconds in the TTT likely don't make much of an impact. Sure it makes sense for the top TTT teams and the top 3 GC guys but there plenty of other teams where this looks like not ideal. As an example: Schädlich (I honestly don't know the names of most 78-80 TT guys, he's the first one I recognised  - not meant as singling out, Heine ). Wiesenhof only has Cattaneo for the GC who isn't really a safe top ten option and their TTT is so bad that it doesn't really matter whether Schädlich gets plugged in or not so he won't score more there. But in T-A he would have the chance to score points and with luck that could be more points than only a 5th place (even without hindsight looking at the startlist).
Not sure how many good examples there are but I reckon there are a few.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 10-11-2017 19:03
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Oh, I forogt I sent Bakelants here. Well lets go then, Jan. Keep the points coming and hoping for the best. Another nice preview, Aqua. Thanks for covering so many races in the PT, appreciated.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Roman |
Posted on 10-11-2017 19:20
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A big opportunity for Vakoc. Hopefully he is at least able to stay close to the top 10 overall. Otherwise I likely have no other hope than him for this race.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-11-2017 19:24
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Shonak wrote:
Oh, I forogt I sent Bakelants here. Well lets go then, Jan. Keep the points coming and hoping for the best. Another nice preview, Aqua. Thanks for covering so many races in the PT, appreciated.
Only Tirreno and Nice so far. But those are also the longest PT races so far 
How could you forget about your best rider's calendar?
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| Shonak |
Posted on 10-11-2017 20:01
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Between my work, my student organization and my master thesis, I forget soo much you wouldn't believe me 
EDIT Wow I sent Pichon and Vanendert too. Full assault on every damn hill, storm Nice. 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| beagle |
Posted on 10-11-2017 20:06
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Might be one of crucial races for my team. First, I desperately need Degenkolb to perform much better than in Qatar. This time, I believe, on paper my sprint train should be the strongest one in field. Also absence of Kiwi or MvS could help a little.
Regarding to GC, Izagirre could potentially fight for lower top 10 places. I´d like to see all money for his training wasn´t a waste.
Great preview, looking forward to reports, at least the first one
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-11-2017 21:58
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I did a lot of thoughts about splitting Coppel and Vlatos, bringing both to TA or in this case PN. Decided to go for the latter because of several things.
I was pretty sure that Phinney wouldn't ride here, which gave Coppel the upperhand, even if Fiedler was attending. Then I looked at Prio - Porto and thought that they would bring Fiedler, Zmorka, Nascimento etc. to TA to win the TTT, which would give 50 (stage) + 17 (1-2-3 GC) + 3-5 (1-2 U25), and to give Machado 1 or 2 spots in the GC.
I was surprised to see that they brought Fiedler and Nascimento but NOT Zmorka, realising he was probably going here - although I would have definately picked Fiedler here because of his stage win chances + his relatively good backup stats - he could have done top 30GC.
So seeing that Zmorka isn't here either must be considered a huge mistake in my book. Also seeing that riders such as Boom (perfect stat fit), Gonzalez Salas, Haugaard, Sütterlin, Kittel and Schädlich is absent shows me that not all teams are micro-managing to perfection in my oppinion. Not that I will complain about that, as it makes my gamble look really strong on paper (whether or not it will pay out is up the the AI and crashes).
We always came here for the stagewin - and if Koretzky can manage a top 10 while Coppel is in top 20 aswell then we are happy. Coquard will attempt to do something in the sprints, but I don't expect him to get as strong results as in Qatar.
Biggest issue for us is when Coppel hopefully takes the leaders jersey on stage 3 - we don't have a team strong enough to defend the jersey, so stage 4 could be carnage - hopefully Koretzky isn't held back by it to a degree where the race is lost for him.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 11-11-2017 12:11
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It will be fun to see how my Frenchies will do on home soil. Obviously results as such are not important for me here compared to the bunch of youngsters gathering experience but getting mentions in the preview opens for a possible surprise party.
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