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Mafia V
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 11:04
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Dy 5:
At 2:38am this morning there was another violent attack. Luckily the doctor was nearby and quickly saved the victim from death to live another day.
Dead:
Waghlon
Aquarius97
hillis91
Marcovdw
Alive:
Raziz
Bikex
trekbmc
Croatia14
knockout
sammyt93
jseadog1
ryant
Ian Butler
weirdskyfan64
TheManxMissile
baseballlover312
24 hours for discussion, preliminary of course 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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2x  x2
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 11:09
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
@bikex
I forgot about the doctor in my calculation. It is true that a doctor save would destroy my calculation, but I think a doctor save is very unlikely to happen. But maybe sammyt is right and it could be smarter to use the lynch free day another time.
not too sure on that, I'd guess a smart doctor could figure out possible targets of the mafia pretty well right now...
Let me just leave that for discussion...
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 13:09
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Interesting.... 
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 13:43
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Nice! 
So, my prediction is that the mafia chose me to kill as a confirmed innocent but we were fortunate to have the doctor think that that was likely and make the save, if so, thanks doctor! 
Unfortunately in that case it would mean that I may not survive much longer, obviously I'm just a townie so my death wouldn't be the end of the world but may make a complete post later with some opinions so I've left a contribution to this game (other than buying us some time )
If I'm wrong about that, well at least I'll get to live.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-10-2017 13:55
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Got to be honest, i don't nessessarily believe Trek on all this.
If he's just a, now, ordinary towns person it wouldn't be the smartest move to kill him. What threat would he pose? He's not a Detective, CC or Doctor, so beyond general discussion he'd be no threat to them. Moving straight away to eliminate him would, whilst not giving away themselves, hardly help the mafia move forwards.
Equally it wouldn't exactly be the smartest move for the doctor to defend trek either, for pretty much the same reason. He's not a 'power' player for the town and has lost all his advantage beyond general discussion. A, at least in my view, smarter move for the doctor would have been to go after a different player, in the hope of keeping the detective or cc in play as they could provide genuine useful help to the town.
I think it's a mafia ruse. Get us to not think of trek as much, and keep him slipping through the net of lynchings. Which leads me to think the Masons are amongst the already dead, quite possibly Hillis and Marco (at least that's my guess), so can't be counted on.
Certainly all that would be a very bold move from the mafia, as it could easily backfire leaving trek open to an easy lynching. But no risk no reward.
If any of that even makes sense
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-10-2017 13:57
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Plus i still have my strong suspicions on Croatia and on Ryant. Which would account for all three mafia. But still guess work and some rather large leaps of logic on my part.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 13:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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I also agree with TMM. trekbmc was most likely not the target of the mafia because they can off him another night now that they know who he is. They most likely were able to figure out a more important role but the doctor also was able to figure it out as well. Wouldn't exactly be smart to lynch trek if we are confident he is just a townie, but surely we can't go another day without deciding to take a stab at someone and getting rid of them? What do you guys think?
EDIT - At the moment I still want to get rid of ryant, but I think Croatia is pro-town.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 11-10-2017 14:28
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 25-08-2012
PCM$: 600.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
@bikex
I forgot about the doctor in my calculation. It is true that a doctor save would destroy my calculation, but I think a doctor save is very unlikely to happen. But maybe sammyt is right and it could be smarter to use the lynch free day another time.
not too sure on that, I'd guess a smart doctor could figure out possible targets of the mafia pretty well right now...
Let me just leave that for discussion...
What's there to discuss? Obviously you were right saying a smart doctor could figure out the target. Still that was not very likely, so I am not wrong. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:03
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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I am not sure about this. My guess is that if he is a townie then jseadog got saved.
Doesn't change the fact that it is very unlikely that trek is lying because the chances for both masons to be dead right now is pretty spare, and if one is alive that is not trek you'd HAVE to claim that now.
My suspicion on TMM is still there, but due to jseadogs claims I will leave him aside right now. Which leaves bikex in the prime position. The only point on his side, the in my eyes unrealistic and the mafia advantaging analysis, was now at least blown away. I have a feeling that he is mafia.
Then I still have knockout in focus. He plays the game in a different way to last episode, while he seems to try to prevent from exactly that. His accusations on sammyt are not as spot on as I have knockout in my books honestly. It could well be the other way round, that he is doubting sammyt for good, but at this moment I tend to be on sammys side right now.
Ryant is a difficult case. I am not mad at lynching him, as he plays this really shady. Thought about changing my vote at the last moment in the daylight time to kill him instead of no one. He is a 50/50 decision.
Raziz plays it calm so far. Though, tbh, his comments are a little bit too sloppy to try to be any productive in the discussion. I would consider him.
I assume that trekbmc is good. Also: I wouldn't vote against bbl, sammy, Ian and, due to his possible worth, jseadog.
Weirdskyfan is a difficult story, I have hardly recognized him in this game so far. I am not sure whether that is a good or bad sign.
I'll start the proposals with a lynch bikex.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:21
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Got to be honest, i don't nessessarily believe Trek on all this.
If he's just a, now, ordinary towns person it wouldn't be the smartest move to kill him. What threat would he pose? He's not a Detective, CC or Doctor, so beyond general discussion he'd be no threat to them. Moving straight away to eliminate him would, whilst not giving away themselves, hardly help the mafia move forwards.
Equally it wouldn't exactly be the smartest move for the doctor to defend trek either, for pretty much the same reason. He's not a 'power' player for the town and has lost all his advantage beyond general discussion. A, at least in my view, smarter move for the doctor would have been to go after a different player, in the hope of keeping the detective or cc in play as they could provide genuine useful help to the town.
I think it's a mafia ruse. Get us to not think of trek as much, and keep him slipping through the net of lynchings. Which leads me to think the Masons are amongst the already dead, quite possibly Hillis and Marco (at least that's my guess), so can't be counted on.
Certainly all that would be a very bold move from the mafia, as it could easily backfire leaving trek open to an easy lynching. But no risk no reward.
If any of that even makes sense
Let's say hypothetically I am mafia: Nobody has given any hints to being a mason. There are 12 town members, 2 of which are masons, 4 townies are dead, so I'd have to bet on a 4/12 chance of mason A being dead and a 3/11 chance of mason B being dead. If I've done my maths right, that equates to roughly a 9% chance that both masons were dead.
So, there is a 91% chance that at least one of the masons would be alive who could immediately call me out to tell everybody that I am clearly mafia, leading to my lynching. It also wasn't like I was being lynched otherwise and making a desperate ploy.
The other case is of course, that I am not mafia. I guessed that the doctor saved me and my reasoning is this: I am a confirmed townie, the only one. The mafia knows I am a person who the town would not lynch (because I am confirmed) so they know they have to kill me. While the doctor would rather save somebody who has put themselves out there as a target and also means they are definitely saving a townie and not wasting their save on some mafia by accident.
I'm not saying this certainly happened. I just took a guess because I was panicking that the mafia would kill me last night, if I was in their position I would've killed me and if I was the doctor I would've saved me.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 12:44
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:23
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Also, I really don't want to point fingers but is it just me or is Jesadog jumping on every lynch train?
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:27
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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I am a confirmed townie, the only one.
For the Mafia they know everybody - and it seems that still some people don't believe you. So they would now most likely start to eliminate people strategically (that might be doctor and detective) - and you'd be the last person that might be that.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:30
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
I am a confirmed townie, the only one.
For the Mafia they know everybody - and it seems that still some people don't believe you. So they would now most likely start to eliminate people strategically (that might be doctor and detective) - and you'd be the last person that might be that.
Not quite sure what you mean by that, are you saying that the town would lynch me last or that the mafia would kill me last?
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:36
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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trekbmc wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
I am a confirmed townie, the only one.
For the Mafia they know everybody - and it seems that still some people don't believe you. So they would now most likely start to eliminate people strategically (that might be doctor and detective) - and you'd be the last person that might be that.
Not quite sure what you mean by that, are you saying that the town would lynch me last or that the mafia would kill me last?
Both but with my statement I'd say the second...or at least not right now
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 15:39
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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trekbmc wrote:
Also, I really don't want to point fingers but is it just me or is Jesadog jumping on every lynch train?
Not true. I would not jump on a train at this point to lynch TMM, Croatia, Raziz, or baseballlover. I would still prefer to lynch ryant over you but confirming you are a townie means that we aren't going to risk lynching someone with an important role (Doctor, Detective). We could throw the CC into that if we consider it an important role 
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| Bikex |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 25-08-2012
PCM$: 600.00
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If you are a townie it might be smart to stop your obsession over me. At least I'm not constatly talking myself in contradictions like you are. In previous posts I already unmasked some but now there is the next red flag: You keep saying that lynching noone in the previous round like I argued for is only helping the mafia. Now again you critisized me for that in your last post. You already said the day before you prefer ryant lynched over noone. However ultimately it was only your decision that noone was lynched yesterday: You didn't change your lynch vote, like you have announced to do. I wonder why you haven't done that, if in your oppinion the mafia benefits from no lynch?
In my oppinion your actions are very contradictionary to your talking. I get more and more the feeling what you say is just blah-blah. |
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| ryant |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:30
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Ok, here is my assessment of the state of play right now. Trek in my opinion is 100% town, it doesnt make sense for mafia to claim being a mason when only 4 people are dead, since as trek worked out, there is a ridiculously low probability that both masons are dead. It would be a very bad play for trek to just 'hope' both are dead this early in the game and coming out as being a mason would only be a viable ploy for the mafia late in the game.
The doc himself knows who he saved and so knows another pro town player, I'm not suggesting you reveal yourself know (that would be very bad) but bear in mind I think at the very least a detective or CC must be dead. Why? Because in my opinion 5 nights is more than enough time for a CC/Detective to get enough results in order for himself to reveal his knowledge and as a town we can act on that in order to find what exactly the person is. Which makes me question why we have not had a claim from a detective yet. We are really shooting in the dark right now as a town and in my opinion we need more direction.
My suspicious list:
Jseadog
weirdskyfan
Raziz
sammyt
Ideally having info on these players would be great
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:33
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
PCM$: 400.00
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Good job, doc, whoever you are!
I only hope the detective is doing an equally good job.
A lot seems to be going on about trek's confession. And damn right we're not going over it lightly, it's a major point because he could be the first proven townie. So what's the breakdown, for me?
- trek is telling the truth and is, in fact, a mason. If this is so, the mafia know this, since he is not one of them. With that fact, I don't think they would've tried to kill him because: why kill a mason when doctor is still out there? If trek is telling the truth, masons are played out anyway, right?
- trek is lying. He is mafia and he took a major risk in "proving" himself a townie. The numbers don't lie, the chances of both masons dead already are slim. However, the real mason might still be in play and either afraid to call on trek's lie because it'd be his word against treks, or he realizes trek is mafia and wants to play it more subtle.
Honestly, I see the first option as most likely. Either we'll look back on his move as a truth-telling, or as the most brilliant, sneaky, risky mafia tactic in this game.
Moving on to this night. Doc saved somebody's life. Meaning the mafia are getting easier to predict (at least for one of us). This could be good news, especially since the doc now has ANOTHER CONFIRMED townie. He knows who he protected. So, I hope the doc can put his stamp on this game now and step up if we're about to lynch the wrong man.
This makes the doc himself a valuable player and he might consider protecting himself from now on. Of course, that leaves others vulnerable.
Oh, in case the doc was already protecting himself. Then he has no new information
It's positive we survived 24 hours (in game) without anyone dying, because that means detective is be one day closer to pointing out a mafia. Unfortunately we can't keep relying on the doc to get his protecting right. That said, we still need to be careful with lynching, because the number of townies might go down drastically fast in case we choose the wrong guy. |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:33
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Would you really want the CC or Detective to reveal themselves this early? Surely they would be killed. Same goes for the doctor. What info do you want about me anyway?
Out of your list I also want to hear from weirdskyfan and what he thinks.
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:34
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
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Oh, in case the doc was already protecting himself. Then he has no new information
I obviously meant: "unless" instead of "in case" |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
