jseadog1 wrote:
Lynching Nobody will just result in the mafia killing someone and us hoping it gives us a lead. If we lynch someone and its the wrong decision, the mafia is forced to act upon it and kill someone meaning we could lose 2 important roles or just 2 townies. However, getting rid of a distraction could open up leads that could win us the game by figuring out the mafia and just getting them 1 by 1. The important thing is we don't kill the detective and that somehow the CC and detective are communicating on this thread to figure out who is who by trying to remain sneaky.
You assume of course, that both the CC and detective are still alive, which is in itself something that we can only hope for. Knockout did the probabilities of that a few night ago, and the chances of that get worse by the day if we continue to let them pick us off without any consequence.
Wait so jandal7 is not revealing after each death who is who? I thought he was only doing that for the mafia members? If so, this is going to suck.
I though he was only revealing for town/mafia, not specific roles. Which in that case any of the town members could have been either role. If that's not the case, I'm glad to be corrected. That means we still have both roles as only regular townies have died, and hopefully they've been able to figure each other out.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Thank you Ian for the clear-up Great to share your impressions with us, not so great that I am part of your focus though.
I can follow your points quite a lot, besides the one on TMM. For me he was the most suspicious one, until jseadog claimed that he is very sure that TMM is a town member. Iassumed this for surprisingly obvious but most likely true. Which is why I then turned my point on bikex, who claimed that "90% either Croatia14 on TMM is mafia". As I am not and TMM is covered by jseadog that made him very suspicious to me.
But then this quote by jseadog happened:
The mafia has been happy with where the discussion is going so why would a mafia member try to turn the discussion around and especially lynch someone random like sammyt.
How does he know what the mafia is happy with and what they are not happy with? And that may have turned everything around again. He defended knockout here with knowledge only a mafia member could have.
Ian Butler said the exact same thing as have many other users. I can assure you that I am NOT a mafia member. I have no problem saying it because the mafia knows who the mafia is so they already know I am not mafia.
You are making yourself sound more suspicious by pointing me out as mostly everyone here believes me when I say I am pro-town.
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jseadog1 wrote:
Ian Butler said the exact same thing as have many other users. I can assure you that I am NOT a mafia member. I have no problem saying it because the mafia knows who the mafia is so they already know I am not mafia.
You are making yourself sound more suspicious by pointing me out as mostly everyone here believes me when I say I am pro-town.
Keep in mind that I didn't call you mafia. In fact I just said something that I've noticed and something that is potentially so.
In actuality it's much more suspicious to me that apparently I cannot "point you out". In a discussion, we should be able to say everything we think of. I'm not saying you are mafia and I'm definitely not calling to lynch you, but there's 3 of them still alive and if you're saying I am forbidden to state you're pushing hard for a lynch, I don't know how that's helping the town.
My observations were asked, I gave them. Don't blame me for not trusting you 100%, I don't trust anyone here fully. I'm just exploring options.
Croatia14 wrote:
then explain me how you come to the conclusion that the mafia is very happy with the discussion
The exact reason everyone else gave. They are lynching random people that have not really been super involved with any discussion. If they were worried that the discussion was going somewhere they would lynch one of the people that had a solid lead in where things were going.
You have yet to explain what makes you innocent and not mafia. I would like to hear that myself.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
jseadog1 wrote:
Ian Butler said the exact same thing as have many other users. I can assure you that I am NOT a mafia member. I have no problem saying it because the mafia knows who the mafia is so they already know I am not mafia.
You are making yourself sound more suspicious by pointing me out as mostly everyone here believes me when I say I am pro-town.
Keep in mind that I didn't call you mafia. In fact I just said something that I've noticed and something that is potentially so.
In actuality it's much more suspicious to me that apparently I cannot "point you out". In a discussion, we should be able to say everything we think of. I'm not saying you are mafia and I'm definitely not calling to lynch you, but there's 3 of them still alive and if you're saying I am forbidden to state you're pushing hard for a lynch, I don't know how that's helping the town.
My observations were asked, I gave them. Don't blame me for not trusting you 100%, I don't trust anyone here fully. I'm just exploring options.
I was not calling you out for anything I was saying that you also agreed with me that the mafia must be happy where things are going.
EDIT - FYI what you quoted me saying was all directed towards Croatia
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jseadog1 wrote:
Ian Butler said the exact same thing as have many other users. I can assure you that I am NOT a mafia member. I have no problem saying it because the mafia knows who the mafia is so they already know I am not mafia.
You are making yourself sound more suspicious by pointing me out as mostly everyone here believes me when I say I am pro-town.
Keep in mind that I didn't call you mafia. In fact I just said something that I've noticed and something that is potentially so.
In actuality it's much more suspicious to me that apparently I cannot "point you out". In a discussion, we should be able to say everything we think of. I'm not saying you are mafia and I'm definitely not calling to lynch you, but there's 3 of them still alive and if you're saying I am forbidden to state you're pushing hard for a lynch, I don't know how that's helping the town.
My observations were asked, I gave them. Don't blame me for not trusting you 100%, I don't trust anyone here fully. I'm just exploring options.
I was not calling you out for anything I was saying that you also agreed with me that the mafia must be happy where things are going.
Yes, I haven't tried to deny that.
Okay but now I see the miscommunication. I thought that last paragraph was meant for me, while it was meant for Croatia. Sorry, I misread that.
Yes, I have also come to the conclusion mafia must/might be happy with current state of affairs. I agree with you on that.
As a town member I don't care if you lynch me at this point as the town should better focus on other people at this point. My final words of wisdom are to look at sammyt, who is trying to excuse his bad choices on 'hey I'm new so I can only play this way as town and would only play this way as mafia'. This itself doesn't wash with me well and the detective should investigate him. I also think it would be wise to look at headphones ss he has just been throwing around wild accusations and hasn't been contributing to the conversation well at all. Every time he seems to be accusing a new person every time he posts. Look at him.
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Croatia14 wrote:
then explain me how you come to the conclusion that the mafia is very happy with the discussion
The exact reason everyone else gave. They are lynching random people that have not really been super involved with any discussion. If they were worried that the discussion was going somewhere they would lynch one of the people that had a solid lead in where things were going.
That is not a valid point in my opinion. The discussion has been very different today, which weakens your argument a lot. For me you now gave one discussable argument on the typical mafia "everbody else does it" basis.
You have yet to explain what makes you innocent and not mafia. I would like to hear that myself.
Isn't it quite obvious? Why would I directly accuse various different guys and bring myself into a difficult situation with that if I were a mafia member? I could've just played it cool or bandwagoned it as many others (partly including you) did. Why would I call out well trusted people as you are (for some reason?). Actually I'm one of the few people that confrontates people with questions that are using their decent standing in the "towns" community. Tell me why should I dare attack people like TMM, bikex and you in your comfortable positions if nobody else does it!
I can answer this question for you: I do it because I want to figure out who the fucking mafia is and lynch those bastards
I can even see a point in you not trusting me, because I accused you "out of the blue" in your comfprt zone. If you are mafia, which for me is very much possible but not given, then you have to misstrust me because I'm your enemy. If you are a simple townie, which is possible but very unlikely in my opinion, then I may look suspicious with my several accusations. But then we found out a lot by my having them, as we learned a lot about bikex and you especially (well TMM almost went quiet afterwards). If you are a normal townie then I am as well totally wrong with most of my other thoughts. And if you are the detective, which I thought for most of the time but tried to hide for the sake of protecting you (and still can very well be), then I guess you better be protected by the doc in the next round so that you can do what you claimed the detective should do next round: Checking me and telling the town that I am a freakin normal townie.
And yes, I had to give up my "secret" of thinking that may be the detective to strengthen my points against bikex and you, as most of the town seems to believe now that I am on the wrong side of the path which I am not on. The good thing is: If you are really the detective most people (including the mafia hopefully) don't trust in my opinion anyway and won't try to lynch you. But then again from my standpoint you played it so obvious that it would be almost suspicious if you were alive after the next 2 night rounds.
I never even said I wanted to lynch you I simply said that on my personal mafia list you were on the top. If you think I am mafia why don't you vote to lynch me? And if you think I am the detective or CC (both pro-town) so bad then why would you want to lynch me or point me out to anybody? I would surely be someone that you would want to stick around.
Regardless, your argument has actually persuaded me that you are townie, congratulations. wsf is now at the top of my list. If I have played the game making it obvious that I am the detective then maybe I am playing this game the wrong way. I am simply trying to say that I AM NOT MAFIA, and not imply anything else with the risk of getting rid of someone else who may indeed have more important roles.
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I feel I need to highlight this line I typed earlier as it seems knockout has either overlooked it or chosen to ignore it.
You're right. I overlooked it. Read through it while eating breakfast and must have missed this. Doesnt remove most of my doubts anyway.
We are 2 mafia kills and a lynch further down the game than when I first suggested the plan, in that time 3 townie's have died and no mafia, are you really trying to say that for the same amount of deaths we wouldn't be better off now with a detective that definitely knows he is not the cc? And with him having conformation of which way ryant is.
Yeah we would be better off if the detective (if he is still alive) knows definitely that he is not CC. Except, he would not know it if he investigated the same person three times without actively comparing the results with the cc. Why: Because there is a 37,5% chance that the CC will get a result even after 3 days that the detective could have gotten as well:
Day 1 read
Day 2 read
Day 3 read
Read on his own role:
Read on ryant:
1)
mafia
mafia
mafia
Detective
Mafia
2)
mafia
mafia
town
CC
unknown
3)
mafia
town
mafia
CC
unknown
4)
mafia
town
town
CC
unknown
5)
town
mafia
mafia
Detective
Godfather
6)
town
mafia
town
CC
unknown
7)
town
town
mafia
CC
unknown
8)
town
town
town
Detective
Town
All of them have the same propability (12,5 %).
(Table reposted from friday. This time with correct use of forum code)
As you can hopefully see the detective wouldnt know for sure what he is after giving up two precious days of investigations. And this is why i thought advising the detective to do exactly that sounds fishy as hell.
Picking ryant as the guy to investigate has nothing to do with it. I understand why you would pick him. I just think that the plan/advice/idea would have harmed the town a lot as it wastes the most important role we have and suggesting sth which looks like a good advice but in fact harms the town should be investigated.
I still think ryant could be the godfather and I have a gut feeling on who it could be if not but as it is only a gut feeling I don't want to talk that person out until I see more evidence than one seemingly throwaway comment that nobody else has picked up on, either through seeing how they Continue to interact afterwards, which they have gone quiet compared to other players which is suspicious but can't really be taken as evidence when we still have a few quiet players as that alone wouldn't set them out compared to the other quiet ones so mentioning hem at this point would look worse on me for calling hem out without enough evidence then I think it would on them. The other way I am hoping to find out is by how lynch voting goes and who they vote for when we are split and whether the person they made the throwaway comment about is town or mafia as that would be evidence to either support or enough evidence to dismiss my theory.
that'd why I haven't mentioned their name yet as I think doing so would be less beneficial until I have more evidence why as I didn't want them to think I am.on to them if I am right, and I don't feel I have enough confidence to name them and push for them to be lynched as if I am wrong I am sure I would be next one lynched meaning by saying something too soon I would be effectively bringing down 2 town members instead which I really don't want to do because that would jeopardise the town too much at this point.
I'm not a fan of this "that person" / "them" talk. Either you feel decently confident of it to mention the thought or you don't. While i understand that the mention of the names might ruin the chance to see them interact normally this whole part could be written as "I think it's ryant but i don't know" which doesnt help at all and is just there to appear like a longer explanation.
I could have said myself just the same but chose ryant because he had already put himself out there by making his claim and as I'm sure you are aware that unless I am mafia or a Mason, of which i am neither, the only role I could be 100% certain on at any time in the game, and especially so before events force people to make mistakes like your uncovering of trek in the last game, is my own so using myself I would not have learnt anything those 3 nights except who the detective is when he has the leads to unveil himself, and I would only allow the detective to prove my role as a townie instead of focusing those 3 days on the person I suspected to be most likely to be the godfather at that point.
That is one long sentence to say that you know you're town.
And I never said we can't do anything in the mean time, we could still have questioned hillis as we did but not actually lynch him, questioned tmm after his posts that made him suspicious to most and from those interactions and the mafia kill analysis we could still have got some insights.
I don't think we would get much interesting info out of this if basically all you say is "hey, i think this is odd. Can you explain this?" when everybody knows that you are not going to lynch them anyway.
And also: if you believe night kill analysis would provide interesting insights then please tell me what the night kills so far tell you?
Oh so many posts since my last login, I want to quickly add my oppinion:
I still think it is a mistake to lynch ryant. He might turn out as mafia, but atm I think he is a townee. The only post that the general suspicion on him is based on is his very first. I very much doubt a member of the mafia would do that, as it can't be benefitiary to get into the focus so early on. It doesn't seem like the voting outcome will change still, so I hope I'm wrong about him.
Croatia is making less and less sese to me with every post he makes. Now it seems suspicious to him that people claim the current direction of the discussion is what the mafia wants. On page 6 he made the exactly same statement: https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....st_1264172
There were some other weird/conflicting statements he made. It's not smart to claim you pointed already at me before I called you suspicious. It is very easy to check the thread and see that this is not the case.
I forgot about the doctor in my calculation. It is true that a doctor save would destroy my calculation, but I think a doctor save is very unlikely to happen. But maybe sammyt is right and it could be smarter to use the lynch free day another time.
Croatia:
Isn't it quite obvious? Why would I directly accuse various different guys and bring myself into a difficult situation with that if I were a mafia member? I could've just played it cool or bandwagoned it as many others (partly including you) did. Why would I call out well trusted people as you are (for some reason?).
Well you started to accuse me after doing exactly the same. Why do you think I am mafia when supsecting some people that were not before, but when doing it yourself it suddenly is something a mafia member wouldn't do.
I'm not sure if Croatia is mafia, but his general behaviour is very confusing. So in my oppinion he is either mafia or a town member that started to panic when suddenly getting into the focus and began throwing around with accusations.
I continue to believe sammyt is protown. I don't think he'd post so much if he was a member of the mafia as a first time player.
Croatia is making less and less sese to me with every post he makes. Now it seems suspicious to him that people claim the current direction of the discussion is what the mafia wants. On page 6 he made the exactly same statement: https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....st_1264172
There is very much of a difference in between the two cases. I said that it seems to me to be like that, and I gave a reason for that assumption. Jseadog just claimed it.
There were some other weird/conflicting statements he made. It's not smart to claim you pointed already at me before I called you suspicious. It is very easy to check the thread and see that this is not the case.
Well I indeed didn't count in your very first claim, because you didn't use any reasoning in it. I wanted to state that when you claimed that I am really suspicious for you already said that you are on my list. But yes, now I read backwards and you are right, you mentioned my name first.
I forgot about the doctor in my calculation. It is true that a doctor save would destroy my calculation, but I think a doctor save is very unlikely to happen. But maybe sammyt is right and it could be smarter to use the lynch free day another time.
not too sure on that, I'd guess a smart doctor could figure out possible targets of the mafia pretty well right now...
I'm not sure if Croatia is mafia, but his general behaviour is very confusing. So in my oppinion he is either mafia or a town member that started to panic when suddenly getting into the focus and began throwing around with accusations.
What is confusing about accusing different people and delivering arguments for that? There is more than one mafia member
I continue to believe sammyt is protown. I don't think he'd post so much if he was a member of the mafia as a first time player.
While I in general agree that it may be the case that he is a pro town-player (maybe framed by knockout?), I do not go with the "post so much" argument. I am a first time player myself (or kind of, getting killed in the first night last time), and if you got into the game there is nothing to prevent you from posting a lot, (eventhough you seem to not like that in my case).
After reading everything (that was said in my sleep) it seems to me that a lot has evolved.
I would like to think that knockout is not mafia as he is clearly trying to investigate the situation, helping the townie's. I seriously doubt mafia would do such a post as his, unless he is reading into the reverse psychology vibe, which is also not out of the occasion.
Ian seems to be getting into his groove in this game and outlined a few key points which implies he is pro-town as well. TMM was very outlandish at the start of the game perhaps making some small errors, but perhaps he has rectified those (as pro-town). Although this, his inactivity in recent times could go against what was just said, seeing him trying to stay under the radar and cover himself after what could have been an outburst of adrenaline in the start, implying his potential mafia status. Not sure of his position either.
Sammyt has been very involved in discussion, and as a first time player it shows confidence in his role that he can more or less get away with what he says potentially being pro-town. Even still, reverse psychology could be a factor so that doesn't completely right him off as a mafia candidate, but it is very likely that he is pro-town.
Continuing from what I said from before Trek's mason talk is quite reasonable, but there could be a huge controversy with it. I am not sure whether the mason's both know that they have that particular role in the start of the game and this could be a good factual plan for trek to do if so. However, if the mason's do not know each of their roles from the start, this could be a smart MAFIA ploy from Trek trying to keep his anonymity for future lynches. Because of this, Trek could certainly be a lynch option and even more suspiciously, this was one of his reasons why he had claimed to be a mason...
2. I don't want to give the mafia a chance to claim masons later, because if I don't claim and then Aquarius and I both die without ever revealing, the mafia might boldly claim to be masons.
With his possible lynching however comes risk, he could easily be telling the truth that he is the mason, so my mind isn't completely decided yet.
I am not sure if Ryant is actually a mafia, but I hope to be proved wrong, which is also why I didn't jump on the bandwagon and vote him out.
Croatia was one to be aggressive towards TMM's claim of being apart of the townsfolk. I assume one of these two are highly likely to be mafia, or else I doubt there would be any conflict with 2 townie's which would make no sense. The difficult part however is to tell which one's which, although I must mention how defensive TMM was of his pro-town position (kind of tend to believe him), leaving Croatia more vulnerable. Once again, this game has proven to be a difficult jigsaw puzzle leaving life/death decisions in the balance.
Jseadog's judgement of the 'no' lynching vote of TMM leaves him in good stead as a potential townie, perhaps being one of the most likeliest to be a townie as I believe the reverse psychology tactic possibility is greatly decreased in such a situation.
Last but not least(I think and hope, sorry if I missed out on anyone), we have Bikex. His general aura is portrayed at least to me, much like knockout's, providing the town with crucial evidence against the mafia. I am not so sure how smart the mafia would be in pulling the miracle reverse psychology outsmarting everyone with his type of posts, but I seriously doubt anyone would be able to pull that off.
That should round off my thoughts which have been steadily collected throughout the continuation of the recent stages of this game.
Continuing from what I said from before Trek's mason talk is quite reasonable, but there could be a huge controversy with it. I am not sure whether the mason's both know that they have that particular role in the start of the game and this could be a good factual plan for trek to do if so. However, if the mason's do not know each of their roles from the start, this could be a smart MAFIA ploy from Trek trying to keep his anonymity for future lynches. Because of this, Trek could certainly be a lynch option and even more suspiciously, this was one of his reasons why he had claimed to be a mason...
2. I don't want to give the mafia a chance to claim masons later, because if I don't claim and then Aquarius and I both die without ever revealing, the mafia might boldly claim to be masons.
With his possible lynching however comes risk, he could easily be telling the truth that he is the mason, so my mind isn't completely decided yet.
The masons know it. Their initial pm is: You and X are masons.
So trek would have to assume that both masons are dead already which was so unlikely at that point that the lack of a counterclaim (there is no reason to NOT counterclaim because the role isnt too powerful in itself) is basically a prove that he is saying the truth.
The masons know it. Their initial pm is: You and X are masons.
So trek would have to assume that both masons are dead already which was so unlikely at that point that the lack of a counterclaim (there is no reason to NOT counterclaim because the role isn't too powerful in itself) is basically a prove that he is saying the truth.
Great to share your impressions with us, not so great that I am part of your focus though.
