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Mafia V
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 22:36
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That seems like a totally random kill.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 22:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
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My night kill analysis for both nights so far, I might be wrong and overanalysing but am going to go through it to try and generate some discussion here.
I am convinced that Hillis is either mafia or being used by the mafia as a false lead due to his actions so far.
Waghlon was the first person killed by the mafia after posting a Mock Hillis vote instead of a lynch vote, and then agreeing with BBL that people shouldn't be lynched for defending themselves, something a mafia member would be against due to them wanting townies lynched without getting a chance to prove they are not mafia.
Aquarius is the second person killed by the mafia and he is the first one to point the finger at Hillis properly, starting the previous discussion about whether he is town or mafia and then he says that either Hillis and TMM are likely both mafia or the masons judging by his analysis, reiterating his belief that Hillis is mafia but that he doesn't want to act yet, then he got taken out before he could act in future or on further discussions on the topic.
It's interesting that Hillis thinks it is a completely random kill considering Aquarius seemed highly suspicious of him before he got killed.
On a separate thought if the doctor, detective and Confused Cop are all active then it would require a small amount of co-ordination for the detective and confused cop to work out which one is which and they could know as early as 3 nights time.
Seeing as Ryant has stated that he is a regular old townie then we could put that to the test at the same time by getting the doctor to save him 3 nights in a row, and get the detective and Confused cop to investigate him all 3 nights.
If theory it would only take 2 nights but if they both come up with Town first night and Mafia second night then they would need a third night to figure out if they are the confused cop or if he is the godfather, any other role, town or mafia the detective would get the same read both nights and would know in 2 nights that he is the detective and we should have formed a prioritised list of potential mafia members in that time, we would just need to hope that the detective isn't killed by the mafia in those 2 nights.
Hopefully this post generates some discussion that could help us oust a mafia member in the mean time.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 23:02
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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sammyt93 wrote:
I am convinced that Hillis is either mafia or being used by the mafia as a false lead due to his actions so far.
Being active like i was in the begining clearly was not smart. Now im in the crosshairs of everybody. Im a townie, so let's use our energy on somebody else.
sammyt93 wrote:
Waghlon was the first person killed by the mafia after posting a Mock Hillis vote instead of a lynch vote, and then agreeing with BBL that people shouldn't be lynched for defending themselves, something a mafia member would be against due to them wanting townies lynched without getting a chance to prove they are not mafia.
Aquarius is the second person killed by the mafia and he is the first one to point the finger at Hillis properly, starting the previous discussion about whether he is town or mafia and then he says that either Hillis and TMM are likely both mafia or the masons judging by his analysis, reiterating his belief that Hillis is mafia but that he doesn't want to act yet, then he got taken out before he could act in future or on further discussions on the topic.
It's interesting that Hillis thinks it is a completely random kill considering Aquarius seemed highly suspicious of him before he got killed.
That is all the evidence you need to figure out that im being used as a decoy! It's all to "perfect" no??
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 23:28
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Confused Cop/Detective interactions are always going to be tough to figure out because the Godfather is involved. It was 3 nights to figure out and then test the right people. Unfortunately, three nights is quite a bit of time if we lynch the wrong people and end up with dangerous numbers. There's also the opportunity of a false claim that ruins the entire game. That's what happened last time, and it almost cost us.
I don't really know what to say as far as Hillis goes. He could be mafia, or he could be being set up by them. It's very hard to determine because he and the mafia would act the same in both instances. I'm going to wait to cast a vote until I hear everyone else's thoughts.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 23:29
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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| Raziz |
Posted on 06-10-2017 06:17
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Domestique
Posts: 552
Joined: 22-12-2016
PCM$: 200.00
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My timing seems to be way off as I just got my first job and am starting today, whilst also helping my mum with her's, thus I have been quite busy and will probably continue to be busy.
Some shots at the dark so far though... |
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| weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 08:28
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1387
Joined: 15-03-2014
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I’m considering starting the lynch bidding wth Hillis - seems very suspicious - but I’ll hold off till after school to see what else happens.
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 06-10-2017 10:42
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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Well i didn't expect the mafia to hit Aquarius.
I thought he was trying to shift our attention towards ryant, who's still been flying under the radar given that opening statement. A mafia move to head off a dangerous train of thought? If not, then as far as i can tell it's another random hit based on "he's not mafia, therefore he must die".
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| Bikex |
Posted on 06-10-2017 11:36
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 25-08-2012
PCM$: 600.00
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I have read through all of the posts now and this is very confusing it's difficult to decide whom to trust. 
At first I thought, hillis was mafia but after the latest events, I now believe he is innocent. Imo the real mafia is trying to frame him.
Croatia14 wrote:
Interesting that the Mafia (most likely) lynches a guy that hasn't been active in the discussion. Seems like they are happy with the direction our discussion is turning. Not a good sign in my eyes. Takes a little bit of pressure of ryant, hillis and TMM though.
I think it would be kind of stupid killing someone active in the discussion, if they already pinpointed at someone, as that will always make conclusions possible for the town people. Killing someone who didn't write much yet, is always much safer, or even better someone who has only suspected the guy the mafia is trying to frame. |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 12:29
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
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Bikex wrote:
I have read through all of the posts now and this is very confusing it's difficult to decide whom to trust.
At first I thought, hillis was mafia but after the latest events, I now believe he is innocent. Imo the real mafia is trying to frame him.
Croatia14 wrote:
Interesting that the Mafia (most likely) lynches a guy that hasn't been active in the discussion. Seems like they are happy with the direction our discussion is turning. Not a good sign in my eyes. Takes a little bit of pressure of ryant, hillis and TMM though.
I think it would be kind of stupid killing someone active in the discussion, if they already pinpointed at someone, as that will always make conclusions possible for the town people. Killing someone who didn't write much yet, is always much safer, or even better someone who has only suspected the guy the mafia is trying to frame.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 14:23
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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I'm convinced that hillis91 is not mafia for now. I have no other leads as I also believe that TMM is not mafia.
What about Ian Butler? He hasn't been around too much
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 08:37
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 06-10-2017 15:10
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
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jseadog1 wrote:
I'm convinced that hillis91 is not mafia for now. I have no other leads as I also believe that TMM is not mafia.
What about Ian Butler? He hasn't been around too much
That shouldn't be any news. I've been way less active ever since I started working full time 
I'm online every day from around this time until 8 in the evening, then I go to bed. So just wanted to explain that.
I'll catch up with everything said, though, because I see walls of texts  |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 06-10-2017 15:20
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 21854
Joined: 01-05-2012
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Okay read through it all now.
For me it's near impossible to know who to trust. The hits seem totally random. Hillis is either the most genius mafia, hiding in overly plain sight, or just a minor troll, imo.
There are people staying surprisingly quiet (raziz).
I don't know what to make of ryant, though. I think it's very odd he keeps stressing the fact that he's pro-town.
At the moment there's nobody I'm certain about, and that makes everything much harder because there are some good arguments out there, but then again, they could be completely set-up.
I hope the detective gets his work done and manages to influence us without betraying himself, if that's at all possible. |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 15:25
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Ian Butler wrote:
Okay read through it all now.
For me it's near impossible to know who to trust. The hits seem totally random. Hillis is either the most genius mafia, hiding in overly plain sight, or just a minor troll, imo.
There are people staying surprisingly quiet (raziz).
I don't know what to make of ryant, though. I think it's very odd he keeps stressing the fact that he's pro-town.
At the moment there's nobody I'm certain about, and that makes everything much harder because there are some good arguments out there, but then again, they could be completely set-up.
I hope the detective gets his work done and manages to influence us without betraying himself, if that's at all possible.
IMO this is the problem in most of these games. It takes such a long time to be truly certain about anyone that we just keep getting picked off. The opposite side of that is that we lynch the wrong people, we lose out twice as bad. So we're at an impasse unless someone with a role can lead us onto something. And even then, we don't know if we can believe it. I'm starting to lean towards hillis being mafia personally, but without having any evidence I feel like I shouldn't vote to lynch based on that.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 15:37
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
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Also keep in mind that if someone tries to give a lead they could reveal the role they have and in turn be killed overnight.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 15:40
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
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We're at a dead-end but we have leads in ryant, hillis, TMM (and maybe a few other guys). In my opinion we're best off voting one of them up to see what happens, similar to Knockout stating earlier that it's best to vote up/lynch a suspicious player (even if they might turn out innocent) then to just wait and let the mafia pick us off.
For now I'll vote: Lynch ryant and let's see where this goes.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| knockout |
Posted on 06-10-2017 16:34
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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sammyt93 wrote:
On a separate thought if the doctor, detective and Confused Cop are all active then it would require a small amount of co-ordination for the detective and confused cop to work out which one is which and they could know as early as 3 nights time.
Seeing as Ryant has stated that he is a regular old townie then we could put that to the test at the same time by getting the doctor to save him 3 nights in a row, and get the detective and Confused cop to investigate him all 3 nights.
If theory it would only take 2 nights but if they both come up with Town first night and Mafia second night then they would need a third night to figure out if they are the confused cop or if he is the godfather, any other role, town or mafia the detective would get the same read both nights and would know in 2 nights that he is the detective and we should have formed a prioritised list of potential mafia members in that time, we would just need to hope that the detective isn't killed by the mafia in those 2 nights.
Hopefully this post generates some discussion that could help us oust a mafia member in the mean time.
I have a few questions about this and i would like you (please let sammyt answer first - if anyone else feels the urge to reply please wait until sammyt has replied  ) to answer them to me:
1) Do you believe ryant that he is a simple "useless" townee? If not, what do you believe he could be instead?
2) Do you think it is worth it to investigate the same guy three nights in a row?
3) If we wait those three nights a detective will have had 5 investigation results. Do you think that this is not enough to give us a proper idea for their exact role?
a) if both det./cc are alive ?
b) if one is dead ?
4) What about the chance of the CC getting the same result two days in a row?
5) How would you want to coordinate the whole plan?
6) What do you suggest us to do for the next three days in order to follow your plan?
7) How do you suggest to act if three guys claim to be detective / cc?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 17:20
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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knockout wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
On a separate thought if the doctor, detective and Confused Cop are all active then it would require a small amount of co-ordination for the detective and confused cop to work out which one is which and they could know as early as 3 nights time.
Seeing as Ryant has stated that he is a regular old townie then we could put that to the test at the same time by getting the doctor to save him 3 nights in a row, and get the detective and Confused cop to investigate him all 3 nights.
If theory it would only take 2 nights but if they both come up with Town first night and Mafia second night then they would need a third night to figure out if they are the confused cop or if he is the godfather, any other role, town or mafia the detective would get the same read both nights and would know in 2 nights that he is the detective and we should have formed a prioritised list of potential mafia members in that time, we would just need to hope that the detective isn't killed by the mafia in those 2 nights.
Hopefully this post generates some discussion that could help us oust a mafia member in the mean time.
I have a few questions about this and i would like you (please let sammyt answer first - if anyone else feels the urge to reply please wait until sammyt has replied ) to answer them to me:
1) Do you believe ryant that he is a simple "useless" townee? If not, what do you believe he could be instead?
2) Do you think it is worth it to investigate the same guy three nights in a row?
3) If we wait those three nights a detective will have had 5 investigation results. Do you think that this is not enough to give us a proper idea for their exact role?
a) if both det./cc are alive ?
b) if one is dead ?
4) What about the chance of the CC getting the same result two days in a row?
5) How would you want to coordinate the whole plan?
6) What do you suggest us to do for the next three days in order to follow your plan?
7) How do you suggest to act if three guys claim to be detective / cc?
1) I'm not sure, seeing as the godfather would come up as a townie straight away it would make some sense for the godfather to claim they are just a townie but I haven't seen anything else that would suggest ryant is.
2) hmm not sure, it depends on how close the numbers would be afterwards but it would allow the detective to know they are definitely not the cc and mean they know they are right first time on everyone else meaning they can find the mafia members without any doubts.
3) it wouldn't be a problem if the cc is dead because their reads can't be trusted, only the detective could be. He would know his reads so far are accurate, depending on what he got so far.
4) I didn't think of that, but he shouldn't do 3 days in a row.
5) and 6) I'll be honest I have not thought it through to far but the doctor would save the person we agree to investigate to make sure they don't get killed by he mafia and we would have to.make sure we don't lynch them.
7) well I wouldn't expect the detective to say who he was straight away but to find a mafia member or 2 first, if he does system who he is then he would die the night after the doctor as that would be the only thing stopping him from getting killed and there's no guarantee he wouldn't get suicides by the terrorist as soon as he reveals his role.
I've finished this post back at work and can't guarantee I'll have time to respond again until I finish, and definitely not as long a post as this, if I need to respond to.somehing hen hopefully Jandal won't mind a small deadline extension.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 17:20
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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knockout wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
On a separate thought if the doctor, detective and Confused Cop are all active then it would require a small amount of co-ordination for the detective and confused cop to work out which one is which and they could know as early as 3 nights time.
Seeing as Ryant has stated that he is a regular old townie then we could put that to the test at the same time by getting the doctor to save him 3 nights in a row, and get the detective and Confused cop to investigate him all 3 nights.
If theory it would only take 2 nights but if they both come up with Town first night and Mafia second night then they would need a third night to figure out if they are the confused cop or if he is the godfather, any other role, town or mafia the detective would get the same read both nights and would know in 2 nights that he is the detective and we should have formed a prioritised list of potential mafia members in that time, we would just need to hope that the detective isn't killed by the mafia in those 2 nights.
Hopefully this post generates some discussion that could help us oust a mafia member in the mean time.
I have a few questions about this and i would like you (please let sammyt answer first - if anyone else feels the urge to reply please wait until sammyt has replied ) to answer them to me:
1) Do you believe ryant that he is a simple "useless" townee? If not, what do you believe he could be instead?
2) Do you think it is worth it to investigate the same guy three nights in a row?
3) If we wait those three nights a detective will have had 5 investigation results. Do you think that this is not enough to give us a proper idea for their exact role?
a) if both det./cc are alive ?
b) if one is dead ?
4) What about the chance of the CC getting the same result two days in a row?
5) How would you want to coordinate the whole plan?
6) What do you suggest us to do for the next three days in order to follow your plan?
7) How do you suggest to act if three guys claim to be detective / cc?
1) I'm not sure, seeing as the godfather would come up as a townie straight away it would make some sense for the godfather to claim they are just a townie but I haven't seen anything else that would suggest ryant is.
2) hmm not sure, it depends on how close the numbers would be afterwards but it would allow the detective to know they are definitely not the cc and mean they know they are right first time on everyone else meaning they can find the mafia members without any doubts.
3) it wouldn't be a problem if the cc is dead because their reads can't be trusted, only the detective could be. He would know his reads so far are accurate, depending on what he got so far.
4) I didn't think of that, but he shouldn't do 3 days in a row.
5) and 6) I'll be honest I have not thought it through to far but the doctor would save the person we agree to investigate to make sure they don't get killed by he mafia and we would have to.make sure we don't lynch them.
7) well I wouldn't expect the detective to say who he was straight away but to find a mafia member or 2 first, if he does system who he is then he would die the night after the doctor as that would be the only thing stopping him from getting killed and there's no guarantee he wouldn't get suicides by the terrorist as soon as he reveals his role.
I've finished this post back at work and can't guarantee I'll have time to respond again until I finish, and definitely not as long a post as this, if I need to respond to.somehing hen hopefully Jandal won't mind a small deadline extension.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 17:32
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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P.s. sorry for the double post but long posts on a phone with crap wifi whilst working in a kitchen are very annoying.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
