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Mafia IV
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| knockout |
Posted on 16-07-2017 02:01
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Just trying to sort my mind about which roles each of the two claimed detectives can have. I see no point in claiming detective for the town population so I'm only going to assume that trek can be CC or mafia while bbl can be detective, CC or mafia. mainly a couple of random thoughts that come up right now. Take of this what you want
Sceneario 1 :
Trek as CC
Bbl as Detective
While writing this i realize that this is impossible. BBL would not have received a mafia read on Trek in this scenario. So if trek is town and saying the truth then we will have to lynch bbl next and the other way round. One is lying!
Scenario 2:
Trek as CC
BBL as Mafia
As I realized in S1 we have to assume that bbl is mafia if trek is town anyway.
I can see this as a possibility. BBL would have picked trek as the one who looks the best opportunity to get one more townie lynched before him and I guess he picked me because he needed to make that claim to fit his role assumption because he agree to my proposed plan when trek accused me.
He propably knows that his reads will be unbelievable as soon as we lynched trek so I wouldn't read too much into his raziz and Waghlon reads (or we could start with the good old "he thinks that we think that he thinks ..." game)
Certainly a possibility. We'll know soon...
Scenario 3
Trek as Mafia
BBL as Detective
In this case we have trek and raziz as Mafia members so we only need to find the godfather. BBLs investigation should focus on double investigating the same citizen. The doctor should protect him a lot.
There is a CC still around or dead already. It would help bbl a lot if that one would share to role to confirm bbl his role (although lynching raziz would go a large way in that direction).
The mafia had a serious interest in lynching bbl so we should take a closer look at those who voted for him.
Scenario 4
Trek as mafia
BBL as CC
This is arguably the one scenario which would make things the worst for us as we would possibly fail lynching townie raziz and after realizing bbl was wrong we would possibly lynch bbl as a mafia member while not having much information.
In this case we can only hope that the detective is there to help us with real leads as we propably will lose if he's dead already.
The fact that he got two correct assignments in trek and me makes me consider this rather unrealistic though. However getting a third mafia read on someone like weirdskyfan would confirm this.
Scenario 5:
Trek as mafia
BBL as mafia
This one might be forgotten by some but we should at least consider this. Don't forget that the situation was two votes for trek and two votes for bbl when bbl claimed his role so he could be sure that one of them was going to get voted out. Don't forget that trek wasn't really trustable at this point.
I think making bbl claim and sacrifice trek to give bbl credibility would be the best possible play by the mafia in this situation. Raziz would be a townie for sure while Waghlon could be mafia (godfather?) or townie.
In this case we would have two more detective / CCs around so the chances that one of them is still alive is huge. It would be good to see whoever is d/cc claim his role (tomorrow) as well because as long as nobody else claims his role as a townie this scenario will look less likely (as it mostly assumes both detective / cc are dead already / inactive.
This whole write up makes me believe that scenario 2 or 3 are the most likely ones and we can exclude one of them after jandals lynch post. In case of scenario 2 i would be glad if the doctor would flip a coin between me and whoever he considers worthy as well to protect (making it a bit more unpredictable for the mafia) as I like to help with taking down the mafia (although I don't have a special role so you might as well pick someone else in the hope of him being the detective) while he should protect bbl in case of scenario 3
I'd like everybody to check for logical flaws as it is late already
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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Posted on 23-11-2024 12:27
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 04:54
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Will wrap it up soon. Going by my record 4 hours should be fine until we go into the night. Keep voting as it's very close
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Raziz |
Posted on 16-07-2017 05:16
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Domestique
Posts: 552
Joined: 22-12-2016
PCM$: 200.00
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ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.
In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek
Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't. |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 05:43
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Raziz wrote:
ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.
In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek
Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't.
haha to be honest I am in the same boat as you. I have a bit of information regarding bball but don't want to reveal.
PCM.Daily Survivor Season 2 Fan Favorite Winner
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| Raziz |
Posted on 16-07-2017 05:57
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Domestique
Posts: 552
Joined: 22-12-2016
PCM$: 200.00
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jseadog1 wrote:
Raziz wrote:
ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.
In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek
Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't.
haha to be honest I am in the same boat as you. I have a bit of information regarding bball but don't want to reveal.
Baseball or basketball? Just kidding.
I'm just going with the flow |
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| Luxemburger |
Posted on 16-07-2017 07:53
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1215
Joined: 22-07-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Wouldn't Trek as detective and BBL as CC be an alternative as well?
As time is running out, I believe you that there is no alternative where both aren't mafia members, and vote to lynch TrekBMC
Kirchen's second account according to Spilak23, 21-07-2016 17:16
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 08:27
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Suddenly, a blast is heard from just outside of town. Everyone gathers around to see what it was. It appears trekbmc, with a bomb strapped to his chest, suicide bombed knockout. Neither survived.
Based on an order I was given earlier today. trek is on a flight but since this is a time he's usually on I went with it.
Half an hour left if anyone wants to change their votes or make one.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 08:58
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Night 4:
A remarkable 3 more dead today as the town lynches baseballlover312.
Spoiler Bad move boys, he was pro-town 
Dead:
Croatia14
MountainMaster
Selwink
baseballlover312
trekbmc
knockout
Alive:
Reveille
ryant
Marcovdw
Raziz
Luxemburger
Aquarius97
jseadog
weirdskyfan64
Waghlon[/quote][/quote]
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 09:04
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 300.00
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I think that it's unfair that if the one who is going to be lynched, suicides himself, it's the second with the most votes the one who gets lynched
Now we are 6-2. We don't have a lot of margin now
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-07-2017 09:18
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Aquarius97 wrote:
I think that it's unfair that if the one who is going to be lynched, suicides himself, it's the second with the most votes the one who gets lynched
Now we are 6-2. We don't have a lot of margin now
Was uncharted territory but nothing is stopping it really and since it was that tight I rolled with it. If it was trek 5 bbl 1 i wouldn't have had bbl lynched
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Waghlon |
Posted on 16-07-2017 10:02
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7694
Joined: 18-08-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Ah... fuck
THE THOMAS VOECKLER PROPHET OF PCM DAILY
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| ryant |
Posted on 16-07-2017 15:53
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Raziz should be an easy lynch anyway, based on BBL's results
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Reveille |
Posted on 16-07-2017 16:58
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Under 23
Posts: 90
Joined: 14-06-2017
PCM$: 200.00
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lynch raziz |
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| weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 17-07-2017 07:33
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1387
Joined: 15-03-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Right. I'll quickly explain why I lynched the way I did.
At first, BBL had sold it to me with his pitch about how Trek had to be a member of the mafia.
But then I saw that knockout had changed his mind. Why did he do that? From being so convicted that BBL was the killer, he had suddenly swung behind him.
My only conclusion was BBL was using the mafia to save himself. He wasn't and I'm sorry.
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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| Luxemburger |
Posted on 17-07-2017 09:17
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1215
Joined: 22-07-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Are we going to know what Treks and Knockouts roles were?
Kirchen's second account according to Spilak23, 21-07-2016 17:16
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-07-2017 09:44
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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At the end of the game all is revealed 
12 hours for night roles.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Waghlon |
Posted on 17-07-2017 09:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7694
Joined: 18-08-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Well, I also kinda wanna explain why I voted for BBL: With trek, we sorta had an idea about what he was. It was a wrong idea, but it was an idea at least. BBL, at the time, didn't have anything I would consider proof for his claims.
THE THOMAS VOECKLER PROPHET OF PCM DAILY
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 17-07-2017 10:28
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 300.00
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Isn't obvious that trek was the terrorist?
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-07-2017 20:55
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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1 hour left for night roles
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-07-2017 22:19
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Day 4:
Today the victim of the mafia was Luxemburger.
Dead:
Croatia14
MountainMaster
Selwink
baseballlover312
trekbmc
knockout
Luxemburger
Alive:
Reveille
ryant
Marcovdw
Raziz
Aquarius97
jseadog
weirdskyfan64
Waghlon[/quote][/quote][/quote]
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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