PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
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Arberg27 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 00:16
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Protected Rider
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jandal7 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 01:06
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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fite me
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
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11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2
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marcoplv95 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 10:19
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Formolo is still better than Jungels in MON, in my opinion.
I'd make both 77 for now |
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Paul23 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 12:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
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marcoplv95 wrote:
Formolo is still better than Jungels in MON, in my opinion.
I'd make both 77 for now
But didn't Formolo basically got beaten day in and out by Jungels?
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matt17br |
Posted on 27-05-2017 12:26
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
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Paul23 wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Formolo is still better than Jungels in MON, in my opinion.
I'd make both 77 for now
But didn't Formolo basically got beaten day in and out by Jungels?
Not in the mountains, considering that if we didn't count the TT Formolo would be ahead of him.
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Spilak23 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 12:33
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Team Leader
Posts: 7357
Joined: 22-08-2011
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matt17br wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Formolo is still better than Jungels in MON, in my opinion.
I'd make both 77 for now
But didn't Formolo basically got beaten day in and out by Jungels?
Not in the mountains, considering that if we didn't count the TT Formolo would be ahead of him.
Formolo also did not have the luxury of being pushed over the dolomites by his team car
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Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 14:33
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Bot Agent
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marcoplv95 |
Posted on 27-05-2017 12:58
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Spilak23 wrote:
matt17br wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Formolo is still better than Jungels in MON, in my opinion.
I'd make both 77 for now
But didn't Formolo basically got beaten day in and out by Jungels?
Not in the mountains, considering that if we didn't count the TT Formolo would be ahead of him.
Formolo also did not have the luxury of being pushed over the dolomites by his team car
Just tell him he's right. I don't think he can reason. |
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AiZaK |
Posted on 28-05-2017 16:18
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
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Guys can you show pictures about the main top riders stats in Mountain, Hills, Cobbles, Sprint,...??? |
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marcoplv95 |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:09
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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In my opinion these should be the changes after giro to the main GC competitors:
Quintana 75 ACC (-1), 74 DHI (+1), 83 REC (-1)
Nibali 72 ACC (+1), 80 DHI (+1), 66 SPR (+1), 79 STA (+1), 84 REC (+1)
Pinot 75 TTR (-1), 67 SPR (+1)
Landa 70 DHI (+1), 78 FTR (+1)
Kruijswijk 78 MON (-1), 78 REC (-1)
Zakarin 80 MON (+1), 75 TTR (-1), 74 REC (+1)
Dumoulin 79 MON (+1), 74 DHI (+1), 73 STA (-1), 73 REC (+1)
Pozzovivo 79 MON (+1), 72 TTR (-1), 76 REC (+1)
Formolo 70 TTR (+1), 73 REC (+1)
Not excluding other changes obviously (like Jungels)
And probably some changes should be higher (like Dumoulin's REC) but these are more or less. |
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Paul23 |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:22
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
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marcoplv95 wrote:
In my opinion these should be more or less the changes after giro:
Quintana 75 ACC (-1), 74 DHI (+1), 83 REC (-1)
Nibali 71 ACC (+-0), 78 DHI (-1), 66 SPR (+1), 79 STA (+1), 84 REC (+1)
Pinot 75 TTR (-1), 67 SPR (+1)
Landa 76 DHI (+7), 78 FTR (+1)
Kruijswijk 78 MON (-1), 78 REC (-1) (difficult, because he had sickness)
Zakarin 80 MON (+1), 75 TTR (-1), 74 REC (+1)
Dumoulin 79 MON (+1), 74 DHI (+1), 73 STA (-1), 73 REC (+1)
Pozzovivo 79 MON (+1), 71 TTR (-2), 76 REC (+1)
Formolo 70 TTR (+1), 73 REC (+1)
That's what I would change. Maybe a downhill upgrade for Zakarin?
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LuckyLukas |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:34
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Under 23
Posts: 62
Joined: 29-06-2016
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I recently downloaded the 2017 DB. First of all a big compliment from my side. Unfortunately I have to renew my critisism concerning the TT stats. After the last DB release I pointed out two problems with the TT stats.
1. The TT stat of almost every good climber is to high in comparisson to the pure TT specialists.
2. the range of the TT stats is to small -> time gaps are not big enough
I think the cause for those problems is that the TT stat still gets misinterpreted. The TT stat reflects the TT ability on flat and downhill. Not the overall TT ability.
Recent Giro TT results prove my point. I will give some examples.
Barta and Pinot have the same TT stat (76). On the hilly TT (mountain stat favours Pinot) both rider have more or less the same time.
On the flat TT Barta is 1 Minute quicker than Pinot.
Van Emden (75) vs. Mollema (75). Hilly TT same time (van Emden has Mountain 63)
Flat TT: Van Emden puts 1:46 into Mollema
Preidler (74) vs. Zakarin (76)
1 TT: more or less same time
2 TT: Preidler is 1 minute quicker
Roglic (77) vs. Contador (76): Roglic is just on another Level on flat/downhill parts. I think at Vuelta al Pais Vasco he took about 50 seconds from Contador on that 20 k flat/downhill part.
I could give countless of these examples. Giving most climbers 3 TT points less would already lead to much better results and timegaps. |
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Selwink |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:46
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
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@Marco: Keep in mind that Kruijswijk has already had a downgrade already. Reducing his MO and REC by -2 while he was riding around first slightly injured and then sick seems a bit harsh to me. Also I don't see why Nibali needs that sprint upgrade. Also no way Formolo should have that TT upgrade, he came 85th today and lost over 4 minutes in the first TT as well.
One thing I'd really like to advocate myself is to push Hirt's REC stat even further than 78. He seemed to get better and better compared to the others, so I'd say he needs 80 or more.
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purepasd |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:47
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Domestique
Posts: 541
Joined: 23-01-2010
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I strongly agree with you, LuckyLukas. Additionally the GC riders have a much higher REC stat, further giving them advantages, usually winning by quite a big margin, even on a flat TT if it's late in the race.
In PCM, perhaps unlike the real world, every rider will usually be with the pelotón until he is out of energy, meaning that he doesn't save any for TT's aswell. Therefore, I would say even more than a 3-stat drop for most GC riders.
A GC-rider making a top 20-result in the last TT of a GT would translate to a 67-72 TT-stat, depending on his REC of course, but also due to his naturally high RES-stat in my opinion.
Otherwise I much agree with your stats! Appreciated
Edited by purepasd on 28-05-2017 18:49
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togo95 |
Posted on 28-05-2017 18:47
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Domestique
Posts: 442
Joined: 06-01-2011
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I tend to agree LuckyLukas, but there are many more subtleties to this issue as well.
First of all, for ITTs in a GT, recovery plays a big role as well as the fact that riders spend energy in very different ways (comparing GC guys with domestiques and free riders saving energy for a particular stage like the ITT).
The fact that ITT gaps are too small in PCM is enhanced by the fact that gaps in regular stages are usually quite big. One possible marginal improvement would be to spread out the ITT stats a bit more. Then one might lose some resolution at the bottom of the spectrum though, like with cobble stats for example.
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marcoplv95 |
Posted on 28-05-2017 19:13
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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@Paul: Landa's +7 in DHI is really too much, he has to prove that again, and Nibali doesn't deserve 79 in the first, so it shouldn't be an upgrade to 80, but it should just be his value, imo.
@Selwink: True, didn't take in mind that Kruijswijk had sickness, so we have just to wait more for another downgrade. And about Nibali's sprint i think just he's better compared to others (not Pinot), same as Formolo's TTR...if Pozzovivo has 73, he deserves 70.
About Hirt i think we shouldn't do such huge upgrades...80 REC is really too much. Upgrade to 77/78 then wait for other tests.
Oh, and i forgot...an upgrade to Dumoulin's Resistance like +2 or +3. |
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Croatia14 |
Posted on 28-05-2017 19:42
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Selwink wrote:
@Marco: Keep in mind that Kruijswijk has already had a downgrade already. Reducing his MO and REC by -2 while he was riding around first slightly injured and then sick seems a bit harsh to me. Also I don't see why Nibali needs that sprint upgrade. Also no way Formolo should have that TT upgrade, he came 85th today and lost over 4 minutes in the first TT as well.
One thing I'd really like to advocate myself is to push Hirt's REC stat even further than 78. He seemed to get better and better compared to the others, so I'd say he needs 80 or more.
Giving Jan Hirt a REC of 80 or more might be reasonable, but would hinder the PCM gameplay for sure. For single racing this might be a very interesting option, but taking in mind that this should also be a database that is for long lasting careers doing so is dangerous for 1 reason that causes 2 issues: The PCM average calculation lays too much worth on back-up stats! Like this Hirt would receive an (in comparison to similar riders) average that is far too high. That means:
- His wage demands in career will be far higher than they should be for a rider of his quality. This will cause some damage for the transfer flow and authenticity of the transfer system in further years. The more types of riders we have directing in riders that should have these high back-up stats (looking at this Giro f.e. Mühlberger would be another candidate), the more balancing problems will occure.
- His development will be affected. Riders with too high average also will have problems to develop in their main stats according to what their potential should bring to them. A rider with a Potential of 6 f.e. has a much higher chance to hit a higher main stat when his back-ups are lower, because he'll reach his average minimum later.
Giving Jan Hirt a REC of 80 would make it (with my understanding of the PCM system) almost impossible to see him to develop to f.e. 80 or even 79 Mountain in a career if he is on potential 6 (which is the maximum he should be on). With a REC stat of 77 however, the chances of him developing like it is most likely projected from his real life development are much higher, hence the chance of seeing him as a possible rider with 79/80 Mountain in the game after 2-3 seasons is much higher.
All in all what I want to say is that giving Jan Hirt a recovery stat of 80/81 might be a really interesting (and possibly right option) for a short term view/single player mode. On a medium- or long term view, especially taking on career dynamics, I would highly recommend to be very careful with stattings like this and see a 77/78 recovery stat as the option to go with for balancing the system.
Taking this on a broader level for statmaking in general these thoughts might show that statting riders for PCM is not just statting main stats like it is often talked about here. Transforming performance into PCM stats does require three levels of thinking:
1. main performance (main stats, framework) - How do a riders results look like? How good does a rider do in a certain part of cycling in comparison to others.
2. styles (back-up stats, patterns) - In which manner does a rider achieve these results? How do we compose the riders main, supportive and back-up stats together that it draws the real abilities of a rider in game and also enhances the games engine to let riders behave in a manner they do behave in reality?
3. compatibility (matrix, engine) - Do the planned stats fit into the stat matrix/arise any difficulties? Are any career mechanics clashing with the pattern in both short- and long term?
I hope that this may have given you a deeper insight in what stat-making is about and why some stats may look different than you'd suggest in first line. You can be sure that Tafiolmo and our whole team spend loads of our free time discussing all these points to give the best possible stats for you. What I hope now is that you guys when talking about stats keep in mind that the pure performance of a rider is just what you see from the iceberg.
That said: It would be very helpful for the suggestions and discussions here that you keep in mind to also take a dive in the water to review the hidden parts of the iceberg which are points 2 and 3 drawn right above. On that base, we can evolve our statmaking in the best possible way as well as decisions for stats may become more clear if you ask the given questions to yourself.
Cheers
Spoiler No offense Selwink, the example was just perfect to describe what I mean. Your suggestions are very helpful, keep them coming
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LuckyLukas |
Posted on 28-05-2017 19:49
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Under 23
Posts: 62
Joined: 29-06-2016
PCM$: 200.00
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First of all, for ITTs in a GT, recovery plays a big role as well as the fact that riders spend energy in very different ways (comparing GC guys with domestiques and free riders saving energy for a particular stage like the ITT).
I am aware that recovery and resistence influence the TT performence but like Purepasd said the REC stat is also most often in favour of the GC riders.
The fact that ITT gaps are too small in PCM is enhanced by the fact that gaps in regular stages are usually quite big.
I agree. That's a real disadvantage for riders like Roglic an Dumoulin
One possible marginal improvement would be to spread out the ITT stats a bit more. Then one might lose some resolution at the bottom of the spectrum though, like with cobble stats for example.
I think that's the best option. |
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matt17br |
Posted on 28-05-2017 22:00
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Please if you need to suggest stats don't just write +2 or +3, we never know what that refers to. Writing the stat you'd prefer seeing is the preferred way of suggesting updates.
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Selwink |
Posted on 29-05-2017 09:55
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
Giving Jan Hirt a REC of 80 or more might be reasonable, but would hinder the PCM gameplay for sure. For single racing this might be a very interesting option, but taking in mind that this should also be a database that is for long lasting careers doing so is dangerous for 1 reason that causes 2 issues: The PCM average calculation lays too much worth on back-up stats! Like this Hirt would receive an (in comparison to similar riders) average that is far too high. That means:
- His wage demands in career will be far higher than they should be for a rider of his quality. This will cause some damage for the transfer flow and authenticity of the transfer system in further years. The more types of riders we have directing in riders that should have these high back-up stats (looking at this Giro f.e. Mühlberger would be another candidate), the more balancing problems will occure.
- His development will be affected. Riders with too high average also will have problems to develop in their main stats according to what their potential should bring to them. A rider with a Potential of 6 f.e. has a much higher chance to hit a higher main stat when his back-ups are lower, because he'll reach his average minimum later.
Giving Jan Hirt a REC of 80 would make it (with my understanding of the PCM system) almost impossible to see him to develop to f.e. 80 or even 79 Mountain in a career if he is on potential 6 (which is the maximum he should be on). With a REC stat of 77 however, the chances of him developing like it is most likely projected from his real life development are much higher, hence the chance of seeing him as a possible rider with 79/80 Mountain in the game after 2-3 seasons is much higher.
All in all what I want to say is that giving Jan Hirt a recovery stat of 80/81 might be a really interesting (and possibly right option) for a short term view/single player mode. On a medium- or long term view, especially taking on career dynamics, I would highly recommend to be very careful with stattings like this and see a 77/78 recovery stat as the option to go with for balancing the system.
Taking this on a broader level for statmaking in general these thoughts might show that statting riders for PCM is not just statting main stats like it is often talked about here. Transforming performance into PCM stats does require three levels of thinking:
1. main performance (main stats, framework) - How do a riders results look like? How good does a rider do in a certain part of cycling in comparison to others.
2. styles (back-up stats, patterns) - In which manner does a rider achieve these results? How do we compose the riders main, supportive and back-up stats together that it draws the real abilities of a rider in game and also enhances the games engine to let riders behave in a manner they do behave in reality?
3. compatibility (matrix, engine) - Do the planned stats fit into the stat matrix/arise any difficulties? Are any career mechanics clashing with the pattern in both short- and long term?
I hope that this may have given you a deeper insight in what stat-making is about and why some stats may look different than you'd suggest in first line. You can be sure that Tafiolmo and our whole team spend loads of our free time discussing all these points to give the best possible stats for you. What I hope now is that you guys when talking about stats keep in mind that the pure performance of a rider is just what you see from the iceberg.
That said: It would be very helpful for the suggestions and discussions here that you keep in mind to also take a dive in the water to review the hidden parts of the iceberg which are points 2 and 3 drawn right above. On that base, we can evolve our statmaking in the best possible way as well as decisions for stats may become more clear if you ask the given questions to yourself.
Cheers
Spoiler No offense Selwink, the example was just perfect to describe what I mean. Your suggestions are very helpful, keep them coming
None taken
I wasn't aware of the impact of REC on the AVG stat, so I didn't suggest the REC with that in mind. Since he's on 78REC now, I think it should be fine.
I do think Jurgen van den Broeck could also use a REC boost, as he seemed to be doing quite well. No need to take the career dynamics into account since he retires at the end of the season anyway
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Kiserlovski01 |
Posted on 29-05-2017 10:07
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4054
Joined: 26-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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What about Kiserlovski? He's nowhere near the rider he was when he top-10'd twice in the Giro, that's a fact. Didn't even notice he was riding it this year until the last week tbh but I think he deserves a litte push. The suggestions are compared to the spreadsheet in the first post.
76 MO (+1)
75 HI (+1)
72 RES (+2)
75/76 REC (+1/2)
74 STA (+1)
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