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PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
LuckyLukas
Bear in mind as well, that a GT contender without a half decent TT skill is a big Achilles heel in their armoury. and so irl most undergo training improvements in that skill. Nearly all the main GT contenders can TT well anyway Froome, Nibali, Contador, Porte, Valverde etc Even riders like Quintana and Aru who not so long ago couldn't TT that well are easily worth their lower 70s' TT stats, it's only Purito that can't TT and a few others that struggle.

but I really do feel it would be a big mistake to start putting some of the GT contenders with late 60's TT stats and then just relying on motivation to get them a good result.


In last years Giro and the Vuelta Aru was in really good shape. In the long Giro TT he was 3 minutes down on the winner. At the Vuelta he was two minutes down.
Like I said I eddited the TT stats in my DB. Guys like Aru, Bardet, Chaves, A. Yates having between 65 and 70 TT. Rodriguez and D. Martin even lower. They really consistantly get results being 1.5 - 4 minutes down on the winner at long (40-50 km) TT's. For me it's really about the time gaps, that are to small if all the GC contenders have 70-78 TT. You will never have Chaves or Bardet loosing 3 minutes or more on a hilly TT, if you give them 70+ stats.


At the end of the day a GT rider with a decent TT stat vs a TT specialist should be the ones contesting a TT in a GT TT which is what happens irl as the situation is not loaded in favour of either. In general a GT rider should do better over a hillier course and a TT specialist over a flatter one.

Also I wouldn't look at a top 10 but more a top 20 to get the overall picture for TT's but personally speaking from my own results, I don't get the one-sided outcome as you've been getting in favour of GT riders but a bit more of a mix.

Sorry I have written that wrong. I wanted to say that in the top 15 of the GT TT's there were only 3-5 guys that finished top 10 in the end of the GC. So GC guys shouldn't be in favour in comparison to the specialists even on hilly TT's

Also some TT specialists can be very inconsistent and just choose their TT's to do well in like Castroviejo etc. In fact I've actually had more people suggesting that we put down certain TT stats for TT specialists than GT contenders, because of their inconsistency in TTs, much more so that people suggesting that the GT contenders are too high.


Shure they do. Like the GC Contenders they are in good shape when it comes to GT TT's. I see guys like Coppel, Castroviejo or Bodnar performing very consistent in those TT's over the last two years.
Edited by LuckyLukas on 25-08-2016 22:18
 
jpgm97
I don't know if I am asking in the right topic, but how really do the backup stats(Endurance, Resistance, and Recovery) work in game(because I fell they don't work like they should work in theory). Example when I play a GT in PCM 2016, I often see riders with high recovery being beaten by riders with low recovery in the last stages, even thougth they have similar main stats. Also I fell backup stats have more impact in non 3D mode, but I may be wrong.
If someone could explain this to me, I could clear out this doubt, in order to contribute better to the stat discussion.
 
matt17br
Recovery never has had that big of an impact in 3d mode, definitely had a heavier one in Simulation. Endurance only works past the 190 kms mark, but really you only feel it after the 205-210 kms mark. Resistance in PCM 16 affects how quick the red bar runs out.
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jpgm97
matt17br wrote:
Recovery never has had that big of an impact in 3d mode, definitely had a heavier one in Simulation. Endurance only works past the 190 kms mark, but really you only feel it after the 205-210 kms mark. Resistance in PCM 16 affects how quick the red bar runs out.

Thanks for the reply.
So if a stage has more than 190km and less than 200km does that mean that endurance would have no impact?
And if I understood you right only resistance has really an impact in game, when playing 3D mode in a relative short stage? Does that mean that riders that fight for the GC, should have good resistance stats and classics specilists good endurance?
And if recovery hasn't a big impact in game, how do you solve(or solved) that problem(if it is possible), in order to riders who only have good results on 1 week races, not having good results on Grand Tours?
 
matt17br
1.Endurance will practically be used in a stage between 190 and 200 kms you just won't feel the effect.
2.Yess
3.We build bigger difference between riders' recoveries. The difference between quintana and tvg in our db is a lot bigger than the one in cyanide's default db.
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jpgm97
I dont quitly understand why the downgrade of Valverde moutains to 79. I mean, I think he is in the best moment of his carrer, and he is participating on his third GT of the year, all the 3 in great shape. I see riders like Majka and Van Garderen having 80 moutains, and even thought Valverde has very good backup stats. I think he doesn't deserve the downgrade.
Also I see you improved Sagan, but lowered his barouder stat. I can understand you did that so he wasn't a beast in game, but in reality he is one of the most agressive riders. Does that attribute have a big impact in game, apart from the breakways? Example if you are playing Paris Roubaix the probabilite of Sagan attacking now is lower?
 
matt17br
Because he's too op in game. His hill, and the rest of his backups - especially resistance and endurance - make him better than he really is if put on 80 mountain, we have explained that earlier Wink

Baroudeur attribute almost doesn't count for shit in game Smile
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jpgm97
matt17br wrote:
Because he's too op in game. His hill, and the rest of his backups - especially resistance and endurance - make him better than he really is if put on 80 mountain, we have explained that earlier Wink

Baroudeur attribute almost doesn't count for shit in game Smile


About barouder I was almost sure it was something like thatSmile. I just don't urderstand why Cyanide makes attributes that almost doesn't workRolling Eyes, even thought barouder seens to affect the frequence of riders going to the breakways. But that didn't work for Sagan...
So it is still possible to Valverde do a top 3 in game in a GT?
I realized the resistance stat of the best GC riders has been decreased. Is this for for they have worse results on one day classics(with some exceptions like Valverde)?
Also I am the only one noticing strange results in carrer mode, when the race is simulated(in this case the team I created was Pro Continental and did not participated in many races WT), like Rui Costa winning the Tour to Froome, Oliver Naesen LBL, Michael Rodgers La Fleche Wallone, and much many others that don't make any sense. And that seens to only happen if I not play as 3D. So the simulation engine seens crap.Sad
And sorry for asking many questions. It's not only for curiosity, but mainly, to clearfy some notions about stats, in order to contribute better.
 
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matt17br
So it is still possible to Valverde do a top 3 in game in a GT?

It is really possible, especially in Giro and Vuelta - which is realistic - the problem with 80 was that he was too good and almost was considered the captain even when Quintana was in the race.

I realized the resistance stat of the best GC riders has been decreased. Is this for for they have worse results on one day classics(with some exceptions like Valverde)?

No simply to kind of fix Cyanide's opness of mountain stat this year. Earlier tests you can find in the PCM 16 section gave us some really bad results as for hilly classics. The mountain stat was so important even in those, riders like Gilbert and Gerrans couldn't finish in the top 100 in AGR/FW/LBL. We used a formula to higher the res of riders with a very wide difference between their HI and MO, so resistance's potential has to be limited as basically a make-up-for-cyanide's-mistakes stat Smile

Also I am the only one noticing strange results in carrer mode, when the race is simulated(in this case the team I created was Pro Continental and did not participated in many races WT), like Rui Costa winning the Tour to Froome, Oliver Naesen LBL, Michael Rodgers La Fleche Wallone, and much many others that don't make any sense. And that seens to only happen if I not play as 3D. So the simulation engine seens crap.

Many things have been broken this year because of the change of the HI/MO ratio to a new system. The simulation engine is one of them... hopefully everything is going to be sorted out in PCM 17 :lol:

And sorry for asking many questions. It's not only for curiosity, but mainly, to clearfy some notions about stats, in order to contribute better.

There's no problem at all!
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LuckyLukas
It's a pity that there is no reaction to my basic argument that the time gaps that are produced by current TT stats are to small.

First I want to respond to this argument.

I certainly wouldn't say we're producing any inflation in such a hard stat to keep updating like TT is, GC guys don't get 1 point more than what they deserve. If they have a stat over 70, that's because they've had a result - in a race they were aiming to win/top 5/top 10 - that makes them deserve it
.

I guess you mean results like the placements of Quintana and Yates at the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco where they ended up second and fourth in the TT. But this was basically a mountain time trial with a decend and a very short flat part. Even Rodriguez ended up 9th. You will still get this results in PCM Yates having 67 TT because in these TT's the mountain stat is most important (like I already said I tested it using this DB with edited TT stats)

As soon as it is a TT with mainly flat parts like this years GC TT's guys like Yates, Aru, Bardet, Chaves will almost always loose a lot of time. For me it is realy not about the placements in these TT's that can't be compared with the real results because in reality 75% of the peloton is saving energy. In PCM they do not. It is about the time gaps that won't be realistic with the current stats.

I think I have stressed that topic enough for now Grin
I can just recomend testing more polarised TT stats as the time gaps will get much more realistic.
Edited by LuckyLukas on 26-08-2016 19:09
 
baseballlover312
I'm just wondering, when a stat is not working right or used to compensate for a bug in a certain PCM edition, is that stat's matrix then completely redone when stats are carried over to the next PCM?
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matt17br
I guess you mean results like the placements of Quintana and Yates at the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco where they ended up second and fourth in the TT. But this was basically a mountain time trial with a decend and a very short flat part. Even Rodriguez ended up 9th. You will still get this results in PCM Yates having 67 TT because in these TT's the mountain stat is most important (like I already said I tested it using this DB with edited TT stats)

I certainly wasn't aiming to that one... Percentages over 5% in TTs don't even use the TT stat. Just look at Quintana's TT results this year and tell me he doesn't deserve what he has now, though. Same for Yates, no way he deserves less than 67.

I'm just wondering, when a stat is not working right or used to compensate for a bug in a certain PCM edition, is that stat's matrix then completely redone when stats are carried over to the next PCM?

We did that this year for Resistance so yes of course lol
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LuckyLukas
I certainly wasn't aiming to that one... Percentages over 5% in TTs don't even use the TT stat. Just look at Quintana's TT results this year and tell me he doesn't deserve what he has now, though. Same for Yates, no way he deserves less than 67.

I know Quintana's TT results. The hillier the TT the better is Quintana. You are still not reacting on my basic argument with the time gaps. It's not like I only want to downgrade Qiuntana. I think Quintana is a decent time trialist but it's a fact that he lost two minutes on Froome and three minutes on Dumoulin in the TDF TT. Bardet even lost 4 minutes on Dumoulin and 3 on Froome. Aru even more. And these results are no exeptions. You can see them in every long GT TT.
With the current stats these results are simply not possible. So I recomend to widen the range from something like 62 (Rodriguez) over 70/71 (Quintana) to 78 (Froome).
The other guys in between of cause. Only talking about the GC Contenders here.
I hope I made my point clear now.
Edited by LuckyLukas on 26-08-2016 21:22
 
matt17br
That's very possible though? https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/T...age_13_ITT

This is the TT we're talking about. Well cool, considering Quintana had an off day, 4 points less than Froome in TT, 2 RES points less and 1 hill point less, and the TT was almost 40 kilometers long, that's entirely possible. Yet, we don't want it to happen for a simple reason: Quintana isn't always that bad, Froome isn't always that good in TTs.
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LuckyLukas
matt17br wrote:
That's very possible though? https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/T...age_13_ITT

This is the TT we're talking about. Well cool, considering Quintana had an off day, 4 points less than Froome in TT, 2 RES points less and 1 hill point less, and the TT was almost 40 kilometers long, that's entirely possible. Yet, we don't want it to happen for a simple reason: Quintana isn't always that bad, Froome isn't always that good in TTs.


You are really not making it easy for me here. Please test the stats I suggest. You can play this TT several times and you won't get those big time gaps. With my stats (Froome 78, Quintana 71) Froome has 1 minute advance in average on this TT. Sometimes more sometimes less. Very very rarely up to 2 minutes. Almost never more. These results are almost spot on.
If I use your stats Quintana is in average 30 seconds down. Sometimes he beats Froome sometimes he is down by a minute. Never 2 minutes down.
So I'm asking wich results are more realistic?
Edited by LuckyLukas on 26-08-2016 23:07
 
Tafiolmo
Jpgm: In reference to a few of the riders that you mentioned. As for Sagan I personally got fed up with him constantly attacking in the classics from the group of favourites and then having no energy to contest the sprint which he would win more often than not, which is why his FS stat was decreased and flat increased.

Irl Sagan attacks from the peloton in the cobbled classics and then rides either solo or with other strong riders where the work is shared, but because of his high effort he can drop the other riders or stay with them and if it's a sprint he'd be a favourite to win, it's only when he does all the work he ends up losing.

In-game he would act like irl in initiating the winning move but when he was in the winning group with the other favourites, he would often attack them not once but twice and use up all his energy in failed attempts and then have nothing left for the sprint.

Part of this is an AI problem but with some tinkering I'm hoping that he might behave a bit more intelligently. Also when I did the Sagan changes I was thinking of getting him to ride more like Cancellara in-game.

Valverde as Matt has said is just so overpowered on 81 mtn I had him win the Tour, on 80 the Giro because he always rode like a point better, we're hoping on 79 he'll ride more like Valverde irl. TVG is a rider I gave the benefit of the doubt to in the Tour and he's totally collapsed in the Vuelta, so unless he's injured or ill there'll be a decrease there. Majka has always been a borderline 79/80 and we have tried to make him more of a stage winner/KOM type of rider than a GT winner, but he does have great REC between tours but that is something we can't really do much about.

LuckyLUkas When it comes to TT, riders in game can lose huge amounts of time as they do in real life, Now we can't put too many GT riders on very low TT stats as it could be a game killer in a GT, especially if there is a long TT before the mtn stages. By giving some GT riders a half decent TT stat it keeps them within reasonable distance from the race leader which therefore means the game AI will keep them motivated for the mtn stages rather than just disappearing down the GC if they are so far behind, as I've often had in the past with French riders with really poor TT stats. So for example somebody like Bardet if on form could be in the hunt when it comes to the final week of the Tour rather than being way down in the 20-30 positions because he lost so much time in the TT. A lot of the time we do make decisions based on the limitations of the AI in order to try and take better gameplay into consideration.

Also as for Quintana you really can't take his TT into consideration as his whole Tour performance was well below par anyway.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 26-08-2016 22:43
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LuckyLukas
When it comes to TT, riders in game can lose huge amounts of time as they do in real life, Now we can't put too many GT riders on very low TT stats as it could be a game killer in a GT, especially if there is a long TT before the mtn stages. By giving some GT riders a half decent TT stat it keeps them within reasonable distance from the race leader which therefore means the game AI will keep them motivated for the mtn stages rather than just disappearing if they are so far behind, so for example somebody like Bardet if on form could be in the hunt when it comes to the final week of the Tour rather than being way down in the 20-30 positions because he lost so much time in the TT. A lot of the time we do make decisions based on the limitations of the AI in order to try and take better gameplay into consideration.


Finally a comprehensible argument. I didn'd know that. Does the motivation depend on the placement in the GC or on the time deficit on the leader? Does it really have such a high impact if let's say Bardet looses 3 minutes on Froome in such a TT (Most of the time Bardet looses between 1.5 and 2.5 minutes in that TdF TT with 66 TT) It's not like you will get huge 4-5 minutes gaps with my eddited stats all day long. Even my stats produce a bit smaller time gaps in comparison to the real time gaps.

Also as for Quintana you really can't take his TT into consideration as his whole Tour performance was well below par anyway.


Like I said even with my stats 2 minutes are pretty much the maximum he is loosing on the long TdF TT on Froome. But I have looked up my stats again. There is only a 6 point difference between them in my DB.
Moreover I am not claiming that my stats are perfectly balanced already. I'm still working on it. Maybe a 5 point gap could be even better. And 69 for A. Yates is probably better than 67 but to widen the range is defenetly necessary (as far as it won't be a game killer regarding the motivation). I'm sure of that.
Edited by LuckyLukas on 27-08-2016 19:44
 
Arberg27
Agree, differential is too small. Expand it to 65-79 instead of 70-78.
 
Arberg27
jpgm97 wrote:
I dont quitly understand why the downgrade of Valverde moutains to 79. I mean, I think he is in the best moment of his carrer, and he is participating on his third GT of the year, all the 3 in great shape. I see riders like Majka and Van Garderen having 80 moutains, and even thought Valverde has very good backup stats. I think he doesn't deserve the downgrade.
Yes, how can Valverde be 3 less than Contador? It is simply too stupid.
 
Selwink
If only there was an explanation for it a few posts above you Rolling Eyes
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