Croatia14 wrote:
@clamel: he indeed already got a massive change in stats already, but thx for noticing
@jorge: cdb helps us with 0% - we can´t constantly check whole .cdbs - Lists with the most valuable updates would be helpful instead.
@jpgm: tendencies look good; for sure we won´t base their stats only on this prologue though - Key is to find the riders that massively over/underperformed in comparison to their stats. Great hint with Cesar Velosos puncture though.
I know that a single stage, or a prologue won't change many numbers in the stats. But that stats are more relative to that single performance. Some may even never do a good prologue like they did yesterday, but also I think that some I mentioned, in game have low values. So there is a need to find a balance. Example if a rider that performed like he had 69,and his best prologue before that he performed like 65. Maybe giving an 67 is good idea, as we don't know if that rider improved, os just had a good day. This is my opinion.
And there are riders that are really improving that are like Jóni(who may even go to a Pro Continental or a WT very soon), and others like Marque, who some years ago would win TTs, and even won a Volta, but since he lost some weight, to perform better on the mountains, his performance in the TT is falling a lot.
But the first riders I pointed, and the leaders of the portuguese teams, I am more sure of what they can do, as they are more regular, and I watch them more often.
Rinaldo Nocentini is a good rider and i can´t put him too low, of course with that stats is one of the best in Portugal, only comparalable with Gustavo Veloso and Joni Brandão, in real life this three are the best one in Portugal, so i think stats are pretty good for him.
About Alarcon and Vinhas they had good stats for CT riders, they are equipiers in Volta and in other races have some free to try do something, only thing i will do is put Alarcon 67MO.
@clamel again: Looked into the DB and Tolhoek is at 68 MO currently with fitting back-ups to be agressive.
@Jorge & jpgm: Great to see those discussions, especially that Barbio hint was really good to get!
@all: Somebody following Quinghai Lake? Meron Teshome was very strong lately, but I feel it´s hard to judge his stats now due to his lack of competing on the first stages...Beneath high REC I feel it´s really hard to implement these results into the stats, I mean he beat good PCT level sprinters, and if I got it right it was a clean sprint that led to that.
In an attempt to improve stats even further, we decided to share with you The stats google document we use for a few months in order to make it easier for statmakers to edit stats in real time and for people to look at them.
You can only view it of course, but this is going to be a great help for people that want to point out possible changes to the stats.
The link has been attached to the first post as well.
Jorge14 wrote:
Rinaldo Nocentini is a good rider and i can´t put him too low, of course with that Brandão, in real life this three are the best one in Portugal, so i think stats are stats is one of the best in Portugal, only comparalable with Gustavo Veloso and Joni pretty good for him.
About Alarcon and Vinhas they had good stats for CT riders, they are equipiers in Volta and in other races have some free to try do something, only thing i will do is put Alarcon 67MO.
OK Nocentini his good for our reality, But this season he still didn't have show that is in the level of Veloso and Jóni. Maybe he can do it in the Volta. But even in your DB he has high stats, for a rider who only victory in this year was the GC of GP Internacional Torres Vedras - Trofeu Joaquim Agostinho, with Broco and Alarcón, in 2nd and 3rd places, without any stage win, and he didn't have many competition for the GC. Veloso wasnt't in his best form, even thought we won the last stage, and Jóni wasn't there. He can't have stats like that, because in game we would beat everyone that is in the Volta in any hill stage, without dificulties. Maybe he can have more than I suggested, but I think we have to wait to see how he perform in the hard stages.
I agree with the changes of Barbio. I aldredy knew that is stats in game, doesn't suit him, but I still didn't realise what type of rider he is, because he is still 22, and didn't have show many thigns in the pro squad until this year, as is normal for his age.
As for Fonte, i think he has decent stats in game, for what he has been doing lately, so I don't think he needs changes.
Alarcón is a good climber, as he showed this year, and has good results. I would give him 68 on Mountains, and maybe 67 to Vinhas and 70 to António Carvalho, because he together with Jóni, Amaro Antunes(who have better stats in game, but I agree with them), Rui Sousa, Daniel Silva and Broco(who desearve around 69/70) are the best portuguese climbers in the Volta.
Do not forget the 2º on the Azerbaijan Tour and the 8º on Coppi Bartali this year and in the hills is better than Joni and Veloso.
Antonio Barbio was a promising talent and go rides for Ceramica Flaminia with Amaro Antunes and Rafael Reis but the italian team have too much problems and ends, he decided to retire but came again this year, if he grows like is expected could be a nice surprise in this Volta, and we need to wait for the real hard stages to see what he can do.
About the climbs stats for portuguese teams right now and in my db are that:
Jorge14 wrote:
Do not forget the 2º on the Azerbaijan Tour and the 8º on c7j;mf;UG_E1T this year and in the hills is better than Joni and Veloso.
Antonio Barbio was a promising talent and go rides for Ceramica Flaminia with Amaro Antunes and Rafael Reis but the italian team have too much problems and ends, he decided to retire but came again this year, if he grows like is expected could be a nice surprise in this Volta, and we need to wait for the real hard stages to see what he can do.
About the climbs stats for portuguese teams right now and in my db are that:
Dont know if you disagree but attending for the 2016Results and the 2015Portugal Tour and Season i think are very nice
Jorge, I think it's best to wait to for the hard stages, to say if I agree or disagree with your mountain/hills stats, and make my suggestions about that, because they weren't in the same peak of form in the races, in which one performed well, as also didn't have the same calendar.
Now they are in their biggest point and objetive of the season. So they are all in similar shapes. Even thought other results still matter and will think of that when I make suggestions.
Edited by jpgm97 on 29-07-2016 22:21
Croatia14 wrote: @clamel again: Looked into the DB and Tolhoek is at 68 MO currently with fitting back-ups to be agressive.
@Jorge & jpgm: Great to see those discussions, especially that Barbio hint was really good to get!
@all: Somebody following Quinghai Lake? Meron Teshome was very strong lately, but I feel it´s hard to judge his stats now due to his lack of competing on the first stages...Beneath high REC I feel it´s really hard to implement these results into the stats, I mean he beat good PCT level sprinters, and if I got it right it was a clean sprint that led to that.
I am not following the race, but looking at the results maybe he desearves a bost around 2/3 points in the stats wich are connected to the sprints, because he performed a way better than his stats in the DB, but even still in my opinion at this moment he shouldn't have a big bost, until he proves he can keep doing that.
I´m currently looking for someone that can tell me which the riders of the successful break in Stage 3 of the Tour Alsace were. I know that Schachmann won from the early break, but who else of the top-finishers were there? Can´t find sources for that sadly...
Thanks Spilak! Then some very surprising performances by Christian, Vanhoucke, Toupalik,... let´s see if they can prove that strength to get a bigger upgrade
Reyes you would expect him to do better from the break but I guess he peaked for Volta a Colombia in June and he must be tired now after also doing Aosta.
Toupalik it's very interesting to see him with his first real road result. Will be interesting to see if he keeps it up. Have high hopes for him in the upcoming cyclocross season. Hopefully he can mix it up with the pro's there though most likely he'll ride mostly U23 again to take revanche for his fail in Zolder.
Today. stage 4, we could only watch almost the last 40km, because fg a technical failure.
Gustavo Veloso won the stage, after an attack from Jóni Brandão, that he followed, but Daniel Silva also got there and passed them. But in the last km, Veloso attacked and beatDaniel Silva. Rui Vinhas is still the leader, but now Gustavo Veloso is second.
As suggestions(maybe in the end of Volta a Portugal, i would correct some, if necessary).
Gustavo Veloso-I think he deserves the same moutain stats of Jóni Brandão(72), but with 71 hills. Hiis accelaration should be around 72/73, because of what he done in the last km(that isn't a new thing to us who watch the Volta). There is a small video on twitter wich shows his speed https://twitter.c...wsrc%5Etfw .Also his endurance should be around 69.
Jóni Brandão-improving is barouder stat to 72 as he attacked in the last climb, but still far from the end, and last year in the stage of Torre(the queen stage), he attacked with Rui Sousa from very far. Also i would improve his endurance to 69 and resistance to 68.
Wilson DÃaz-he is not in the game, but he is showing a good climber, even tought he is in a trial at his team Funvic. Will he be added to the game?
Stefan Schumacher-I would lower hills to 68, and moutain to 67 for what he is showing. He isn't the same from some time ago. Maybe i am wrong. but I didn't saw any other race that he participated this year.
João Marcelo Gaspar-Even thought he lost some time today, for what he has been doing, I would give him 66 mountains, around 67/68 hills and endurance 64, as also sprint 66 and accelaration 67.
Raul Alarcón-He together with Vinhas, Veloso and Carvalho, is one of the four riders from W52-FC Porto-Porto Canal in the top 10. He is 4th in GC now, behind Jóni, I would give similiar stats that I suggested to Vinhas yesterday, but instead of 68 Mountain, 68 Hills, and 67 Mountains. Also his sprint should be aroud 65/66 and accelaration 67 (example: today he got 2 seconds in a intermediate and sprint, and created a gap of 1 second in the end to the others riders in his group, because he is fastest)
Rui Vinhas-I am tempted to give 69 moutains. But maybe it's still soon. I think he at least deserves 68.
Henrique Casemiro-I would just improve his endurance to at least 65 and resistance to 64.
Hernâni Broco-I think that 67 mountain suit him best. He seens to be getting worse, from the climber we was.
David de la Fuente-I would just improve his moutains to 66.
Bruno Silva-Also 66 moutains, but lowering to 67 hills.
Alejandro Marque-Decreasing to 69 moutains, as he lost 1.38m today to Gustavo Veloso, and his results this year are worse than the latests.
Di Mateos-He is a good sprinter, but today did 10th in the stage. It's a very big surprise, because he ended before Vilela, Nocentini and Marque. So I don't know if he can keep doing that on moutain stages. But for now, he deserves around 65/66 in mountains.
Rui Sousa-I would keep my suggestions for now, because he also did not performed well in Senhora da Graça last year, even thought he lost more time today. If he keeps like that he should have a decreasing in stats in game, from the suggestions I gave. But now seens hat Daniel Silva will be the leader for the first time.
Nocentini-He performed very bad for his stas today. He is rider that might deserve a big decrasing if he keeps performing like that.
António Carvalho-He deserves 70 in moutains, and could be better classified in the GC, if he hadn't to work a lot. Also I would improve his endurance to 67 and resistance to 68.
Amaro Antunes-I would lower to 70 moutains, even thought the 10th place in Volta ao Algarve, which gives me doubts.
David Belda-He is far from his best performances here. I would give 67 mountains and 68 hills.
Ricardo Mestre-deserves 67 moutains, because he is relaying in front for many time.
And I think it's all for today.
Edited by jpgm97 on 01-08-2016 23:53
interesting...f.e. Schuhmacher suffered an early crash on stage 4 and therfore could never come back to the peloton - did you recognize that? also, wasn´t Silva the guy supposed not to be leading his team at the Volta?
Croatia14 wrote:
interesting...f.e. Schuhmacher suffered an early crash on stage 4 and therfore could never come back to the peloton - did you recognize that? also, wasn´t Silva the guy supposed not to be leading his team at the Volta?
Did he? If he crashed, I didn't knew anything about that. But yesterday we could only watch the last 40km or less, and there is nothing on the live feed. I only knew there was an early crash and Joshua Stritzinger and Isaac Rabat had to leave the race, but I didn't knew we was there. Where did you see that?
Daniel Silva should not be leading the team in normal circunstances, as they presented Rui Sousa as the leader. But he is 40 now, and he is not the same he was 2/3 years ago. Even thought Rui today attacked many times whitout results, and in the Torre stage he often does a good performance, even if he has a bad day a stage before. Also I don't know if Daniel can keep up like he is doing, because he is know for not being regular in his performances. And also he loses between 1 and 2 minutes to Rui in a TT. So Rui may even pass him in the GC. Yesterday I forgot to refer that in stage 3 Rui Sousa crashed when passing his hometown(of which he is president) and injured a wrist. It wasn't serious, but that migh have affected him.
For today i would not suggest stats change, as didn't see anything to justify it. Tomorrow is rest day. And wednesday is the queen stage(Torre).
And one more thing, what are you doing with my suggestions/tendencies? Sorry but I am curious about that. I know that I am not am no expert in stats and some may not be accurate. Just for curiositie.
Edited by jpgm97 on 01-08-2016 23:50
Hi!
I have seen "the stats google document (has got all the most updated stats)"; Are Teams (Klein Constantia, Team Wiggins, BMC Development, Team Lotto - Soudal U23...)
updated???
I think that Schachamann, Davies, Frankiny, MAs... need a updated.
jpgm97 wrote:
Did he? If he crashed, I didn't knew anything about that. But yesterday we could only watch the last 40km or less, and there is nothing on the live feed. I only knew there was an early crash and Joshua Stritzinger and Isaac Rabat had to leave the race, but I didn't knew we was there. Where did you see that?
Daniel Silva should not be leading the team in normal circunstances, as they presented Rui Sousa as the leader. But he is 40 now, and he is not the same he was 2/3 years ago. Even thought Rui today attacked many times whitout results, and in the Torre stage he often does a good performance, even if he has a bad day a stage before. Also I don't know if Daniel can keep up like he is doing, because he is know for not being regular in his performances. And also he loses between 1 and 2 minutes to Rui in a TT. So Rui may even pass him in the GC. Yesterday I forgot to refer that in stage 3 Rui Sousa crashed when passing his hometown(of which he is president) and injured a wrist. It wasn't serious, but that migh have affected him.
For today i would not suggest stats change, as didn't see anything to justify it. Tomorrow is rest day. And wednesday is the queen stage(Torre). And one more thing, what are you doing with my suggestions/tendencies? Sorry but I am curious about that. I know that I am not am no expert in stats and some may not be accurate. Just for curiositie.
https://www.radsport-news.com/sport/sp...100084.htm: A diary of Florian Nowak (riding for Christina Jewelry at the Volta) on radsport-news.com, where he explained the struggle after the crash, where the whole team tried to bring back Schuhmacher.
I compare this to other suggestions & race reports and then adjust the information and suggestions to our stat matrix for implementing them. Though I always doublecheck if some suggestions might be biased, which I guess is normal just to judge things from the most possible objective view.
As you give much more quality than findable reports I really take over a lot of your suggestions.
Interesting thoughts on Rui and Daniel!
@irdalopez: Yes, all the guys got updated after the Tour Alsace. Remember that Schachmann and Davies came from a break (so they got improved stats for succesful attacks in the mountains), while Mas and Frankiny are already on the Top of the U23 eligeable climbers list.
& I have another question: can somebody explain me how Jaroslav Marycz came 5th at the RideLondon Classic? I mean, was it really him? He did nothing on Pro Cycling Level really for two years before...has somebody seen the last kilometers as the results also look kind of strange...
