jpgm97 wrote:
I simulated the Tour 10 times, because I had nothng better to do and Froome won 7 times, Contador 2 and Nibali 1...
10 trials is not a representative sample.
Moreover, simulated results are very much different compared to results from playing the race in 3D, which is what the stats are made for. This is because usually people simulate races they are not interested in (and there is virtually no gameplay to speak of). Therefore the results of these are (almost) irrelevant to stat making.
jpgm97 wrote:
I simulated the Tour 10 times, because I had nothng better to do and Froome won 7 times, Contador 2 and Nibali 1...
You keep talking of the TT were was raining, and I talk about the Prologue and you don't answer...
So if Thomas desearves 79 Mountain, so why the only WT race with mountains or hills whe won was Paris Nice this year? And even that, he almost lost, and he would lose if he hadn't help from Henano in the end, because he couldn't follow Contador, and because the ending was dowhilling and then flat.
Let's bear in mind that for all the plaudits given to Quintana and his climbing ability, he was still unable to match a top level Froome in the mtns in their Tour de France's over the first two weeks. As all know, this is where Froome wins his Tours and Quintana despite being stronger in the final week has been unable to overhaul him, so based on this it's hardly worth putting him a point higher than Froome..
As Togo said sims are different to 3D play and interesting to see that your sims actually gave all their Tour victories to previous winners anyway.
Thomas is one of the games OP riders due to his general stats and he's actually now at 78 rather than 79 any lower than this though is not plausible as his P-N victory showed and he's also one of the main helpers of Froome and none of Froome's elite Tour domestiques should really have less than 78 mtn otherwise Sky wouldn't be Sky without their inhuman climbing domestiques.
Sagan is like Thomas in that he's extremely OP and probably the best overall rider in the game. His stats are now imo the best they've ever been but I do see you issue with the green jersey competition. This to be fair is an AI problem rather than one for the stats. 1) he could be put to 80-81 to make him more of a green jersey contender but he's really not that fast. 2) If the game AI actually took into account that when Sagan wins the green jersey it's based on his constant ability to finish highly rather than winning stages and if the game AI focused on getting him to win those difficult sprint bonus points on hilly stages etc much more often, he'd probably win more green jersey competitions.
Also of note, I suggest you look at some more updated stats as I think you're looking at one some months out of date.
Also Coquard is actually going through stat upgrades based on the Tour so far.
@Gvarv Enger is gradually getting upgrades and along with Theuns and Laporte etc are getting some consistent results on the sprint stages so far.
@OPQ Sta is primarily aimed at classics riders and so in general the stamina stat is not overly important for a stage race rider unless he wants to do well in classics. But it's worth bearing in mind, that much like the REC stat for it to be really effective the differences have to be bigger than what we generally use in the DB (something that could be looked at when we have more time) because a stage race ride with not great STA but in excellent form could still finish highly in a longer race.
We also keep the main GT riders at a decent level anyway, for the simple reason that the STA stat also kicks in on stages longer than 190Km and will gradually get more important as the length increases, for the simple reason you seldom see the GT riders struggling to stay up on very long stages.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 06-07-2016 10:16
If Route du Sud is not enought, Quintana did 6th on Vuelta ITT last year. This year won 10 seconds to Froome on Romandie prologue and did the same time on the other ITT.
You seem to still ignore what I said then.
His only good result in a flatish TT (still quite hilly) was at Route du Sud in front of Chavanel, Erviti, Demare and Coquard, all of them not worth more than low 70/high 60s. For the rest, his recovery is high enough to guarantee overperformances in 2nd/3rd week TTs.
Are you maybe forgetting how hilly that TT was? Because 4.5 kms/15 were uphill, and about 6 downhill, a speciality in which Froome doesn't excel.
You keep talking of the TT were was raining, and I talk about the Prologue and you don't answer...
The prologue is another story, and it's also why he got 77 prologue and not 76 like in his TT stat. As I said however, 1 single prologue where the only real top TTist was Dumoulin can not grant him the same stat as much more consistent riders.
I understand Sagan stats but I don't see him in the game doing top 3 in a flat stage in the first week or winning the Green Jersey, like in real life.
Weird because in my tests he's been winning 3+ stages, top 20 in the GC and green jersey by large margins. His general opness is the reason why we had to lower his mountain stat.
So if Thomas desearves 79 Mountain, so why the only WT race with mountains or hills whe won was Paris Nice this year? And even that, he almost lost, and he would lose if he hadn't help from Henano in the end, because he couldn't follow Contador, and because the ending was dowhilling and then flat.
Lol I don't understand the reasoning behind this, so do only wins count now? Because then I would have Bardet on 75 mountain! Please provide decent arguments and look at Thomas' results first. As Tafiolmo said, his stat is not even 79, but 78 right now... It's obvious he couldn't follow 82 mountain Contador!
Coquard is the sprinter with more victories this season...
Boeckmans was at some point the sprinter who won the most last year, but there is no way he should have got 80 sprint. Coquard hasn't won a WT stage/race yet, so tell me how that should get him 80!
jpgm97 wrote:
I simulated the Tour 10 times, because I had nothng better to do and Froome won 7 times, Contador 2 and Nibali 1...
You keep talking of the TT were was raining, and I talk about the Prologue and you don't answer...
So if Thomas desearves 79 Mountain, so why the only WT race with mountains or hills whe won was Paris Nice this year? And even that, he almost lost, and he would lose if he hadn't help from Henano in the end, because he couldn't follow Contador, and because the ending was dowhilling and then flat.
Let's bear in mind that for all the plaudits given to Quintana and his climbing ability, he was still unable to match a top level Froome in the mtns in their Tour de France's over the first two weeks. As all know, this is where Froome wins his Tours and Quintana despite being stronger in the final week has been unable to overhaul him, so based on this it's hardly worth putting him a point higher than Froome..
As Togo said sims are different to 3D play and interesting to see that your sims actually gave all their Tour victories to previous winners anyway.
Thomas is one of the games OP riders due to his general stats and he's actually now at 78 rather than 79 any lower than this though is not plausible as his P-N victory showed and he's also one of the main helpers of Froome and none of Froome's elite Tour domestiques should really have less than 78 mtn otherwise Sky wouldn't be Sky without their inhuman climbing domestiques.
Sagan is like Thomas in that he's extremely OP and probably the best overall rider in the game. His stats are now imo the best they've ever been but I do see you issue with the green jersey competition. This to be fair is an AI problem rather than one for the stats. 1) he could be put to 80-81 to make him more of a green jersey contender but he's really not that fast. 2) If the game AI actually took into account that when Sagan wins the green jersey it's based on his constant ability to finish highly rather than winning stages and if the game AI focused on getting him to win those difficult sprint bonus points on hilly stages etc much more often, he'd probably win more green jersey competitions.
Also of note, I suggest you look at some more updated stats as I think you're looking at one some months out of date.
Also Coquard is actually going through stat upgrades based on the Tour so far.
@Gvarv Enger is gradually getting upgrades and along with Theuns and Laporte etc are getting some consistent results on the sprint stages so far.
@OPQ Sta is primarily aimed at classics riders and so in general the stamina stat is not overly important for a stage race rider unless he wants to do well in classics. But it's worth bearing in mind, that much like the REC stat for it to be really effective the differences have to be bigger than what we generally use in the DB (something that could be looked at when we have more time) because a stage race ride with not great STA but in excellent form could still finish highly in a longer race.
We also keep the main GT riders at a decent level anyway, for the simple reason that the STA stat also kicks in on stages longer than 190Km and will gradually get more important as the length increases, for the simple reason you seldom see the GT riders struggling to stay up on very long stages.
I think it's the best answer I got-
We don't know if Quintana can climb better than from Froome in the first two weeks, because we don't see Froome isolated from his team mates(he may have at least Thomas, Landa, Henao and Poels this year) on the climbs in the first two weeks, and Quintana most of times is only with Valverde, if he can be there like last year. Sky has one of the biggest budget on WT so that explains their behavior. But Quintana didn't lost the Tour on the Mountains, he lost in Stage 2 in aflat stage because of the wind, and on the Mur of Huy. And he also did only participate on the Tour two times in his carrer. What I am trying to say is that Froome doesn't like mountains as Quintana does, and aldredy complained about last year having to many mountains. This year is even worse. So I don't see him winning it. The major reason is the hard last week.
I sugested that changes exactly based on AI which is still crap. How many times do we see Sagan on a fugue in a Hilly/mountain stage like last year. After seeing results on my career mode, like Rui Costa winning the Tour to Froome, Naesen LBL, Michael Rodgers La Fleche Wallone, Quintana going to Giro and Aru also... I stop playing carrer mode, I was playing in a Pro Continental team, so maybe if was on WT, and played eberything on 3D, there wouldn't results like that. Am I right? Also i don't think recovery stat works very well, because it makes no sense, Froome winning on my game stage 20, when in real life he always sttrugle and got beaten by Quintana at that stage, because is recovery is low compared to Quintana.
Hey look at that "unknown"
Hermann Pernsteiner Amplatz. MTB rider that make a small detour on the road. Very good placed in Tour of Austria with 4th in a hard climb.
He is NOT even in the DB, perhaps you should add him ???
Take a look how he continues in Austria and obvious he should be good MTN,DHI and Hills.
Well good compared to the other blokes in Amplatz that is.
So you Matt17br can't see Froome decline in TT? Some years ago whe has only been beaten by Tony Martin in the Tour, since them how many TT he won? So if Quintana did better results on hilly TT, doesn't that mean that atleast his hills stats should be upgraded?
Roglic did only did the same time as Domoulin,, nothing special...
Comparing Bardet to Thomas... Bardet with 24 years did 9th on the Tour. Thomas won the Paris Nice with 29 years old, never made top 10 in a Grand Tour, and never won a stage there, a thing Bardet did, and almost won the climbers's jersey. Good comparison isn't it? Also don't remember what he done in Daupinhé?
You want arguments. Here it goes. Does it make sense Thomas having the same montain stats as Chaves, and higher than Henao and Costa?
Broeckmans had a serious injury or you don't remember? Perhaps now he could be on top 10 sprinters. Also Bouhanni(but I don't disagree with his stats because of his many stage wins) never won a TDF stage, Viviani(is he better than Nizzolo because he won a Giro stage?), Démare(who has been beaten many times by Coquard this season), Gaviria also didn't. Why they have 79 Sprint? Also are you watching the Tdf? Haven't Coquard almost beat Kittel yesterday?
Roglic did only did the same time as Domoulin,, nothing special...
Sorry to say but your logic doesn't work at all. Van Aert beat Tony Martin in a prologue, according to you we would need to upgrade him to 78 prologue as well. We will never do such a change with no other results to back that up. Seriously if you really want that do that in your own database and don't try to convince me he should have the same stat as Rohan Dennis!
Comparing Bardet to Thomas... Bardet with 24 years did 9th on the Tour. Thomas won the Paris Nice with 29 years old, never made top 10 in a Grand Tour, and never won a stage there, a thing Bardet did, and almost won the climbers's jersey. Good comparison isn't it? Also don't remember what he done in Daupinhé?
You clearly didn't understand what I meant. When you talked about Paris - Nice you talked about it as if it was the single relevant result Thomas achieved. Bardet has never won a WT event, Thomas did, so in your logic, when saying Thomas only won a WT race once, we should have Bardet on a much lower stat, which we don't, since Bardet is higher in our db...
You want arguments. Here it goes. Does it make sense Thomas having the same montain stats as Chaves, and higher than Henao and Costa?
It doesn't make sense, which is why he's one lower than Chaves and same as Henao and Costa, with 78
Boeckmans had a serious injury or you don't remember? Perhaps now he could be on top 10 sprinters. Also Bouhanni(but I don't disagree with his stats because of his many stage wins) never won a TDF stage, Viviani(is he better than Nizzolo because he won a Giro stage?), Démare(who has been beaten many times by Coquard this season), Gaviria also didn't. Why they have 79 Sprint? Also are you watching the Tdf? Haven't Coquard almost beat Kittel yesterday?
Oh can you even read? We have put Coquard on 79 sprint already, but do you really think he deserves 80??? The same as Bouhanni??? Without having even won a WT even??? Come on! Gaviria has won a Tirreno stage, Viviani has won against better sprinters several times as well as a few WT wins, Demare has won SanRemo and several other WT events. Coquard has almost beaten Kittel in a uphill stage where he notoriously suffers a lot, while Coquard got 4th at Amstel, and I'm not saying Coquard's results are excellent so far. But 80? Not right now...
What I said about Boeckmans is that at some point in 2015 he had the most wins, just like Coquard did, but those would never justify 80 sprint for him becuase they mostly were in continental competitions.
So you Matt17br can't see Froome decline in TT? Some years ago whe has only been beaten by Tony Martin in the Tour, since them how many TT he won? So if Quintana did better results on hilly TT, doesn't that mean that atleast his hills stats should be upgraded?
We can't reflect real results 100% with our stats, but do you think it's worth upgrading Quintana just to see him beating Froome in a TT? Froome has declined in TTs, which is why he doesn't have the 79 he had in 2013 in favour of a much lower stat.
haasje33 wrote:
You have made your point. Now it's up to our statmakers to decide whether they'll consider it or not.
Angry rant = making a point?
Sorry if I offended you by saying my opinion... I thought that I could make suggestions, and you could agree or disagree, even if the sugestions are right or wrong. Don't worry that i don't make more.
In portuguese cycling teams, i think there should be a revision of Nocentini(still very high stats), and improvement of Rafael Silva, Rui Sousa(he is the leader of Rádio Popular Boavista, and a montain specialist), Rafael Reis(the best rider on our ranking), António Carvalho, Rui Vinhas and Raúl Alarcón.
haasje33 wrote:
You have made your point. Now it's up to our statmakers to decide whether they'll consider it or not.
Angry rant = making a point?
Sorry if I offended you by saying my opinion... I thought that I could make suggestions, and you could agree or disagree, even if the sugestions are right or wrong. Don't worry that i don't make more.
You're allowed to say your opinion, in a polite way. If you're questioning if the DB team is following the biggest cycling race of the year, that's not what we're looking for.
I thought that I could make suggestions, and you could agree or disagree, even if the sugestions are right or wrong. Don't worry that i don't make more.
You are welcome to make all the suggestions that you want, in fact we had a discussion where I responded to all the points you exposed expect Costa's, where I actually agreed with you.
jpgm97 wrote:
I wil give you the mos quick answer i can give,.
- Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
- Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
- So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
- Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
- The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
- The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
the reason why tony martin won that paris nice was because there wasnt any huge mountain like this year. it were only about 5 km
kreuziger an upgrade on hills and mountains to maybe 79 HI and 78 MO or 79 79. He is too underrated. If contadors go off the tour and kreuziger gets the captain role i think he can get a top 3 or 4th
Honestly, the only rider out of sprinters whose stat(s) I still don't quite get is Gaviria. Don't get me wrong, I don't question his potential and fast paced ascend into pros, but I just don't see how he could have anything more than 77 sprint.
P.S. Maybe you already had that discussion in spring when that was more relevant.
tobgunn123 wrote:
kreuziger an upgrade on hills and mountains to maybe 79 HI and 78 MO or 79 79. He is too underrated. If contadors go off the tour and kreuziger gets the captain role i think he can get a top 3 or 4th
Stats is not about what you think happens in the future, but about what actually happened in the recent past. Kreuziger stats is fine now, let's look at it again after TDF.
I_Mayo wrote:
Honestly, the only rider out of sprinters whose stat(s) I still don't quite get is Gaviria. Don't get me wrong, I don't question his potential and fast paced ascend into pros, but I just don't see how he could have anything more than 77 sprint.
P.S. Maybe you already had that discussion in spring when that was more relevant.
Yes 79 spr and 81 acc is too much, he's won one Tirreno-Adriatico stage and that's it.
Kreuziger for ages maintained climbing stats of 78-79 even when he wasn't doing too much and finally got put down to how he is now. For him to have an increase again he at least needs to sustain this form over thye rest of the Tour.
Gaviria is the type of rider that tends to peak at the season's beginning and end and therefore seems to have his off time mid season which is now. We spent a lot of time trying to get both Gaviria and Ewan right and then separating them a bit. The reason why Gaviria can manage a 79 sprint, is that he is capable of beating higher ranked sprinters something that most 77/78 sprinters will find much harder to do. If he does nothing though for the rest of the season then a decrease for sure.
Admittedly we sometimes (hardly ever though) try to judge a rider for the coming months in terms of doing stats rather than waiting for exact results to justify them and Gaviria may well be one of these few cases, so as said we'll leave him out to dry as it were and see how he continues doing.
