This is how it is going to go down.
The GC rider who has saved - by far - the most energy during the three weeks will win the Giro. The greatness of wheelsucking shall be highlighted for all to see.
Nothing much happens on Vars. An average break gets away (some of which is caught on Bonette, the rest on Lombarda), and by the top of the climb it is Astana running the show at the head of the peloton. Kruiswick is hanging on. Maybe he can keep his podium spot?
Not so fast. 5kms into Bonette and he has unfortunately cracked. Not unfortunate for Valverde though, who decides that he is not going to attack today. Another GT podium awaits.
Not so fast. Remember Fuglsang? He was a guy who was quite strong at the beginning of the race, and rarely sighted since. Well he takes up the pacemaking and destroys most of the peloton. This isn't just a 1km assasination like OGE on Agnello though. With 5kms to go Scarponi returns to the front, continuing the torture. Nibali is in third wheel, feeling like he is about to win the Giro.
Nibali wanted to save Scarponi for Lombarda, but he's heard via race radio that Chaves is dangling off the back. The smiling Columbian smiles no more, cracking big time.
And by which time he has no teammates to support him. OGE didn't put anyone in the break either, and the forum explodes.
Valverde smiles some more.
Not so fast. 2kms from the top of Bonette, well above the dreaded 2,000 metres of altitude level, Valverde begins to crack. Realising this, Nibali himself now attacks; kinda illogical, given that the Spaniard is no threat to his GC, and Esteban has already lost over a minute, but the forum explodes (positively) nevertheless.
Only one rider is able to follow Nibali. The mythical Majka.
Mythical, for it is said that he has never put his nose to the wind.
The happiness of the forum (anticipating that Valverde might lose his podium), quickly turns to sadness with the realisation that said rider might be Majka instead.
Nibali tows Majka down the next descent, and the time gaps open further. At the bottom of Lambarda it is a minute to Valverde and over three minutes to Chaves. But here is where it gets really interesting.
Rafal wasn't sure if it was just his imagination, but on the early slopes of Lombarda, Nibali doesn't seem as strong as before. He hears the word "attack!" being blasted into his earpiece by his director sportif. "Attack? What is this foreign term?" Rafal wonders. After a while the dialogue is added to: "Attack Rafal, and you can win Giro!" Majka had gone to the school of Valverde and had never thought of anything beyond a podium. But hearing the word win now, it sounded quite nice.
So Majka attacked. Vincenzo was immediately gaped.
It wasn't exactly Landis La Tousierre like, but Rafal quickly disappeared into the distance.
Behind the action, Valverde had recovered somewhat and was now reeling the toothless shark in. With 4kms left to climb he reached him, by which point Nibali had already lost more than two minutes to Majka. Couldn't Valverde risk it all and win the Giro? Maybe, but the latest time check had Chaves more than two minutes behind him. "So why not just wheelsuck my way to third place?" the much loved Spaniard thought to himself.
The Italian was bleeding time though, so much so that Chaves was coming back. By the time that Valverde heard that the Columbian was within ninety seconds, and thus ahead of Valverde in the overall on the road, it was too late....logically. They had just crested the final major climb of the day. But Valverde had unlimited confidence in his 'mur' abilities. "I will make up the time on the hill top finish" he reasoned, "and if it's touch and go for the podium, then I always have my sprint."
If it had been anyone other than Valverde - or Majka for that matter - Nibali would have won the Giro. Because they would have given the struggling Sicilian the respite that he needed by taking some pulls. But contrary to Alberto Contador's motto; "The second place is no good", Valverde's was; "The podium place is more than enough."
Majka was continuing to gain time with every pedal rev. That was until he reached Mikel Nieve, the final remnant of the days breakaway, and a return to wheelsucking was just too good to resist. So he sat on the Sky rider, for the remainder of Lombarda, and then on the descent, and then even all the way up the final climb of the day, the Sant Anna Di Vinadio. Normally this would have spelt doom for Majka's bid for pink, but Nieve is unusually strong for a breakaway rider, and Sky riders never worry too much about being liked, so he paced Rafal just fast enough so as to take him to the finish with enough of an advantage over Nibali - and the rest - to win the Giro. Well it wasn't quite enough, but Mikel felt that after all of the hard work that Rafal had done throughout the three weeks, that he ought to allow him to take the stage. Those extra bonus seconds would be enough to deny Nibali the Giro.
Well they wouldn't have been if he'd been able to take third. But Alejandro showed him a clean pair of heels in their sprint for third. Sweet revenge for that week two sprint.
The forum was about to go into meltdown, but on the final 2.5 km ascent, little Esteban Chaves dug deep; just enough as it turned out, to kick Valverde off the podium by a single second. World peace was achieved. Until Froome beat Contador in July.
BTW, there was a power outage in Gigs' area, so he didn't see any of this
