 Milan San Remo
The first monument of the season.
The first real test for the sprinters.
Forget Qatar. Forget Oman. Forget Tirreno Adriatico. Forget Mallorca. THIS is where it matters.
Last year Freire took us by surprise, he didn’t win a Tirreno stage, he didn’t win in Qatar or Oman. But, he won where it mattered. Not only did he take out Milan San Remo, but he bookended his season with Paris-Tours.
However, he gave certain members an insight into his form by winning Trofeo Cala Millor.
If we look back to the previous season, Mark Cavendish proved his media doubters wrong by getting over the Cipresso and Poggio di San Remo and outsprinting Heinrich Haussler. Again he gave a flash of his form by winning the final stage of Tirreno - Adriatico.
The final climbs of Milan San Remo prove a hard testing ground for sprinters
The season before that, Fabian Cancellara took the sprinters on and spoilt their game by his late breakaway. But, again, he wasn’t really such a surprise as he didn’t just win once before Milan San Remo, but three times. With two time trial wins in Tirreno – Adriatico and California, and with a dusty win in Strade Bianchi.
Fabian attacked over the top, and extended his lead down the final descent, before breaking away on the flat finale
In fact, Pozzato in 2006 was the last rider to have won Milan San Remo without a win, although he did take 4 top 5 results in Belgium and Italy. Which takes us to another valid point, is Tirreno – Adriatico the best way to prepare for Milan San Remo? Well, all of the riders since Andrei Tchmil, in 1999, have ridden Tirreno – Adriatico in preference over Paris – Nice. So whether it’s the confidence that comes from early season results, or the supposedly better weather further south, it looks like a statistically less likely event that riders such as Heinrich Haussler will stand a chance of winning this season. But, I wait to be proven wrong, of course!
Read on for the favourites run down:
And so we look at our favourites for this season’s Milan San Remo, starting, logically, with the sprinters and our defending Champion Oscar Freire:
Oscar Freire
Freire has done exactly the same build up as usual. Win at either Mallorca or the Vuelta a Andalucia (he took out stages 4 and 5), before riding into perfect form in Tirreno – Adriatico, where he didn’t appear to bother trying with any sprint wins, whether that was playing the tactical game or he didn’t feel well like a lot of riders at the moment, we’ll have to wait and see. But you certainly can’t write him out this year, like I did last season.
Mark Cavendish
Fat is how some people would sum up his appearance at the Tour Down Under. I would definitely include myself in that “some people” category. Compared to the average professional cyclist he looked obese! But then again, that was only January. And as February and March rolled around, he looked (slowly) a little bit more in shape. Winning his token one required stage before Tirreno, enough perhaps to stoke his own confidence (if that’s ever in doubt) and enough to fuel the medias’ awful rumour mill and word spinning, you just can’t write him off. If he can get his sorry rear-end over the Cipressa and Poggio then his leg speed could surely see him as a major threat to all other favourites.
Matt Goss
As the media would have us believe, apparently Matt Goss is the only man Cavendish would fear on another team, so surely (if that’s true) Matt Goss can sprint pretty well then? So if Cavendish can’t climb this year, maybe Matt Goss can? Taking three wins already this season in the Tour Down Under, Oman and Paris – Nice, can he be the first rider for over 10 years to win Milan San Remo after using Paris – Nice as a tune up? Personally I have a few doubts as to his ability to climb as well, but with a super strong HTC line up, both he and Cavendish have quality team mates to bring them back to the front if they should slip back over the Poggio.
Tyler Farrar
Talking about strong teams, you have to stare opened-mouth at Garmin-Cervelo. Farrar, Hushovd and Haussler “lead”, though on separate teams they’d all be out and out leaders in their own rights. Farrar has shown promise of his form this season already with success on Mallorca, twice, and in Italy after a perfect lead out from his team. It’s rumoured of course, that Hushovd will get the benefit of the team for the big races, and without having won Milan San Remo, will the younger Farrar have to take the back seat? It’s a good question, but if for some reason Hushovd shouldn’t be there at the end, Farrar may well be. And he’s shown that he can beat Cavendish before, and if you can beat Cavendish, then you can beat anyone. Right?
Thor Hushovd
The God of thunder, or something like that, has shown he can do bloomin’ well on hilly courses what with winning some small race at the end of the season last year. I can’t quite remember what that race was called, but he did beat some pretty good cyclists, not that we’ll forget at any point this season as he gets to wear those stripes. In all seriousness, I don’t know why I’m biased to be Anti-Thor, but he can get over those hills easy peasy (or so he makes it seem) and sprint damn fast too! Perhaps he’d have won two years back if he’d have got onto Haussler’s wheel, but maybe with both Farrar AND Haussler as lead out men this year, he’ll have the best shot he’s had for years. Plus, as World Champion, he does deserve extra credit as one of the biggest threats for the win. To win in the World Champion’s jersey too must be the biggest motivator as well.
Though his best result this season has only been 6th in a stage in Oman. Not a good sign for success going on previous seasons.
Heinrich Haussler
After losing in 2009 as one of the closest Milan San Remo finishes ever, he’s shown his speed in many finishes since. This season being no difference, having won twice in Qatar and then the sprinters jersey for his consistency in Paris – Nice. If Matt Goss can’t win after using Paris – Nice as preparation, can Haussler? It all depends on who the team rides for would be my reckoning, though is Haussler 2nd or 3rd ranked?
Andre Greipel
The big monster of a sprinter. Greipel says he can win the big races, well this is his first chance at one. After a couple of seasons racing the smaller races and winning lots of them (on his own merit, or by the help of HTC?) he’s getting his own chances now at OmegaPhama. Though he has to share leadership with Gilbert, albeit with different ways of attempting to win. Two second places in the Tour Down Under didn’t dampen his spirits, as he came over to Europe to win in the Volta ao Algarve.
Daniele Bennati
A move to Leopard Trek has seen Bennati in some brilliant early season form. Although without a win, he’s shown himself in most races. Five podium places in stages already prove he’s a threat, yet he’s yet to show himself in Europe as, like Freire, he didn’t really have the best luck in Tirreno. A bit of an underdog certainly.
Sacha Modolo
If I remind everyone from last season, someone I put on my preview as a potential top 20. I put top 20 obviously as to come in the top 20 against the best riders as an unknown is good as it is, but to come 4th is certainly even better. Last year he show cased his talent by Top 5ing several stages of Tirreno, Sardegna as well as 4th in Fruili. This season, not so good by anyones account. 3rd in a stage of Calabria is the best it’s got, with a certain lack of racing. But, as with many sprinters races, and especially Milan San Remo, how the climbs are tackled affect the size of the final group, and the make up. Certainly don’t write him out of a fast finish.
Jens Keukeleire
Another young rising sprint star, this one from a slightly colder background in Belgium (not that weather has any part to play in cycling ability), and another first time attempt at Milan San Remo. Three wins and an overall win last season, before an untimely bone break gave the cycling world chance to see that Cofidis did actually have a sprinter! This season his race lead up has been similar, although without the early season success of last year. Whether that’s because he’s training specifically for the bigger races, we’ll have to see, but as with many sensible teams, he’s spent his neo-pro season at a lower level, and is looking to progress this season. Again, like Modolo, although slightly more well known, I’d tout him for a Top 20 this season. Though his climbing is a big unknown in my books.
Alessandro Petacchi
One hell of an asthma sufferer, or cyclist. Depends how you look at things really. Last year he won a few races in his lead up to Milan San Remo, where he ably took the last spot on the podium. Whether he can repeat that with his recent horrible flair up of asthma we’ll have to wait and see, but his start to the season has been slightly slower, with only 3 top 5 results to his name, though two of those came in Tirreno, which he then didn’t finish. Hard to judge his climbing form, although he’s always been able to compete in hilly giro sprint stages, so it’d be peculiar not to see him in the finale should he enter into San Remo in a fit state.
Tom Boonen
A sprinter, or a classics man, that is a question that appeared in my mind last season, and during the Tour the season before. Having hit some personal issues and injuries during the past couple of years, he seemed to come off the rails somewhat post-classics and no longer appeared to bother sprinting for anything resembling a top 10 finish. Having said that, this year he’s popped back onto my radar. Although there is nothing wrong with focusing only on winning the big classics and monuments as Boonen appeared to do, a lot can be said for the sprinters who can win all year round. A second place last year at San Remo certainly gives credit to my argument that he’s possibly the strongest power climbing sprinter out there, along with Hushovd, and although he’s only had the one win this season in Qatar, compared to four last season, his build up has been spot on as usual. One of my favourites for this season certainly.
Fabian Cancellara
Is there any single day race this man cannot win? The climbs hold no fear, the descents fear him and the flat? Well, the flat just disappears beneath his wheels with every effortless pedal stroke. When in form, Fabian is one of the strongest riders in the peloton, and given that his team has only one sprinters in their midst it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see an attacking race from this man. Couple him with another puncheur, rouleur, or two and you’d see the race rapidly race away from the sprinters. Even if it doesn’t, Fabian can put in a powerful turn of speed if he were to bother and could attack anywhere he decides to. With only the one time trial win this season, compared with the plentiful from the season he won this superb athletic test, his form may not be as excellently primed as before, but you can never, ever write off this man.
Phillipe Gilbert
Speaking of rouleurs, Gilbert has quickly become one of the best hilly riders out there. With results in Milan San Remo ranging from 3rd to 32nd, he is never far from the lead group (since 2004 he’s been 14th, 6th, 32nd, 21st, 3rd, 23rd, and 9th) so by my reckoning he’s looking at a top 30 result again this year, which means he’ll probably go and win. He is certainly in form already this season with 3 wins to his name, and with those wins, OmegaPharma won’t be the last team off the blocks for once! That’s got to give confidence to his team mates as well as having the pressure on his own shoulders lifted somewhat. Given that he’s leading with Greipel as back up should his aggressive approach not pay off, Gilbert has no need not to attack with 100% effort this Saturday. If the race isn’t for the sprinters this year, Gilbert won’t be far from the win.
Filippo Pozzato
Pozzato has one of the biggest mouths in the sport of cycling, possibly gifted to him by the win in Milan San Remo in 2006. Under the role of lieutenant in 2007, he took the victory, surprising many. Since then he’s built on that success to become one of the most inconsistent performers I can possibly think of. On courses seemingly built for him, he doesn’t try, and on courses clearly too hard, he gets beaten by 5 others who dance away from him on slopes far too steep for his heavier build. But, we’re talking about Milan San Remo, one of the best course profiles for Pozzato, in my personal opinion. Some late attacks last season didn’t pay off for Pozzato, and he then sat up rather than attempting to tag back onto the back for a top 10 finish, and he’s one of the few riders to bend away from needing wins to sometimes surprise. Since beginning his career, his best successes at Milan have come from seasons where he hasn’t won any races, but just shown his form with Top 5 results. This season, though, he has neither. Hard to judge his form, but along with many top riders, not one to be written off.
The Others
Possibles I have not yet listed include; Allan Davis (Astana), Alessandro Ballan (BMC), Greg Van Avermaet (BMC), Oscar Gatto (Farnese – Vini), Danilo Napolitano (Acqua a Sapone), Peter Sagan (Liquigas), Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas), Sylvain Chavanel (Quickstep), Juan Jose Haedo (Saxobank), Edvald B Hagen (Team Sky), Juan Antonio Flecha (Team Sky), Robbie McEwen (Radioshack), Borut Bozic (Vaconsoleil), Romain Feillu (Vaconsoleil), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Damiano Cunego (Lampre), Michael Matthews (Rabobank), and Giovanni Visconti (Farnese – Vini).
Out of those listed above, Sagan has to be one of the threats of the century. Along with Scarponi, both can climb and are in form, but Sagan has the addition of an ability to sprint. A young Freire certainly, although he is yet to be tested with the extreme endurance that San Remo demands. Cunego, now focusing on the single day races, could well shine as well.
rjc_43’s race prediction
Personally, I feel like it’s time for a breakaway year. We saw it in Paris – Nice, with breakaways succeeding, and who’s to say that won’t occur here in San Remo? If you’re going to have a breakaway in a monument, such as San Remo, who would be better to have leading the charge than an Italian. Visconti has my bet to finally show himself in a seriously big race, and has shown to have excellent form so far. Joining him off the front would be non-other than Philippe Gilbert, Filippo Pozzato, Michele Scarponi, Fabian Cancellara, Damiano Cunego, and Alessandro Ballan. With such a strong mix, working together just wouldn’t happen, and a late attack by Gilbert, Visconti and Pozzato comes to fruition. With the others being caught by the sprinters, Gilbert takes the win over Pozzato and Visconti, with Matthew Goss leading home the peloton.
- Phillipe Gilbert
- Giovanni Visconti
- Filippo Pozzato
- Matthew Goss
- Thor Hushovd
- Tom Boonen
- Daniele Bennati
- Tyler Farrar
- Oscar Freire
- Andre Greipel
Good luck with the betting, be it real or as real as Daily can provide, and make sure you enjoy the racing!
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