 With the Paris - Nice and Tirreno - Adriatico behind us, we've seen the first hints of those in form, and those, sadly, out of form riders, just before the first monument of the season.
The Milan San Remo is an extremely important race for many riders, with the reaction Cavendish giving last year example of just what it means to a sprinter. Whilst some sprinters need tonnes of chances at victory, others need very few, and in the remaining few years, sprinters don't even get a look in.
Before we move onto possible winners of the first monument, let's have a little look back at the first two Historic races.
Paris Nice
Lars Boom was the first to kick off surprises this season, with victory in the Prologue. A windy road stage followed with Boom once more showing his ability in the toughest of weather conditions.
Victory to Henderson just confirms that he's been racing since Down Under, getting the edge over Bole, one of Lampre's Eastern Bloc riders.
Stage 3 was, as expected, a slightly less hectic stage, with the sprinters lining it up for the win. A touch of wheels by the Lampre chaps brought down a couple, and let Bonnet through to take one of his best victories. A sure help for the BBox search-for-a-sponsor quest.
Stage 4 gave us our first taste of Sagan's true ability. An amazing prologue ride and following days just kept getting better. Being one of the few to follow a clearly in form Roche, he outsprinted his late-in-the-stage breakaway riders for a thrilling stage. Boom, on the other hand, didn't have such a good day, losing his jersey to the peloton's favourite funny man, Voigt.
Stage 5 was the big one. No one doubted Contadors ability, and no one doubted his chances to win, it was just a case of, "by how much?". Well, it was only by 10 seconds over (the now doomed) Valverde, but ten seconds and the yellow jersey is as good as it gets for some riders!
Sagan again showed brilliant form on the run into the finish on stage 6. Again following an attack by another rider - this time Le Mevel, he passed him quickly, then held on into the final km.
With the line in sight, it was always going to be close, but with Lorenzetto again taking a podium spot, Sagan held on. Impressive stuff from a young man. Does he even shave yet?!
Perhaps an even more impressive ride was the next days stage. Xavier Tondo took off from the day's break with a good 30 km left to ride. With Cunego and Chavanel for brief company, he soon dropped both on a climb with a seated increase in speed, then kept the gap going, and going, as the pack fought it out for the win behind him. And unlike last year, Contador didn't bonk!
So into the final stage, and like last year it was a day for the break. Contador didn't want to go with it this year though, preferring to save his legs to respond to the attacks from Valverde and L.L Sanchez when they came.
And so, with the pack closing, the break put in a big effort, which ended badly for Voeckler, who, in essence, led out KoM winner Moinard.
So Contador claims the first blood of this season, scoring one up on some big names hoping to do well in the coming months, and at the Tour.
Tirreno Adriatico
A rather wet stage greeted the riders at Tirreno. With no time trial this year the course suited the puncheurs even more than usual, and Scarponi was back to defend his title.
Stage 1 played out in an odd fashion, with a late break of four getting away in the final few kms, before being caught on the final bend, before Hushovd sat up and let the gap go back out rather than lead it out, or follow a breakaway riders' wheel. Gerdemann outsprinted Breschel, Paolini for the win. Surprised? I certainly was!
Stage 2 showed signs of a bit of a nicer spot of weather, and Boonen took full advantage of some serious form, and a great lead out by Bennati's Liquigas boys.
Stage 3 was a reversal of luck for Bennati, as he took the honours, getting the kick right this time over Petacchi and Eisel. Eisel you say? Where's Cavendish? Well, Mark was showing some serious lack of form, having had very little in the way of intense training/racing. Getting dropped on every climb seemed more likely than winning this year.
Stage 4 was the first for the GC men, with Scarponi taking the GC lead away from Bennati, who'd stolen it from Gerdemann the day previous. A margin of 14 seconds over Vaugrenard (also showing some good legs), who had thought he'd won was all Scarponi gained, but I'm sure he'd have wished for a second more now...
Stage 5 was a bit of a repeat for the puncheurs, with the pack splitting up and Gasparotto managing to claw his way to the front to outsprint Garzelli and Evans for the win. Evans, in his usual attacking form, has also been showing some serious intent in the World Champions jersey.
The sixth stage was a great one to watch, with Spilak and Ignatiev both showing the motivation to keep pushing the break forward, Ignatiev took the initiative to attack first, and held his advantage all the way to the line.
A win from a break was his reward for a couple of years of quietness in terms of his palmares. Evans and Garzelli clawed back some more time on an angry Scarponi, but it'd have to be won on intermediates. Surely that wouldn't happen?
Well, we were all wrong on that account, with Garzelli not content with 2nd on the GC by 2 seconds, preferring to gain two 3rd places at the intermediates, winning on count back. Some exciting racing for the final day.
Spoilt, unfortunately, by Team Sky's sprinters tactics. Edvald Boasson Hagen causing Sky to be hated further by the rest of the bunch, pushing Petacchi and Farrar closer to the barriers, before moving back to the center to ensure Petacchi really did go the long way around. We've seen other sprinters disqualifed for less, but it seems the Norwegian sprinters always seem to get a better deal off the commesaires.
So, you may well ask, why did I break down what we already knew? Well, I did so to launch into possibly the most exciting look forward of the year. With the Milan San Remo under our belt, it leaves space for the cobbled classics, and, more importantly, the ardennes classics!
Milan San Remo
It seems logical to point out the obvious at this point. This is a betting article, as such, you should hopefully see why the favourites get the odds they do. If you have no concern over the PCM Betting System, that's not to mean you shouldn't read this, hopefully it might provide a bit of insight into a rider you've overlooked, or just give you something to argue with me about!
Mark Cavendish
A very rocky start to the season with Mark. Dental problems caused his training to be delayed significantly, and, as seen in Tirreno, his form is lacking for it compared to last year.
We don't even get to see if he can out kick the other sprinters as he took a tumble on the final stage of Tirreno. However, you wouldn't put it past him to get over the climbs just to spite the critics once again or to annoy Boonen. Either way, he is a favourite, and come the finish, if he's there, it'll be close.
Stefano Garzelli
A serious helper, or a serious puncheur. Either option could work. If a late attack goes, and Garzelli's there, don't put it past him to try and get away, but at the same time, he may just be happy to try and help Luca Paolini to clinch one big win.
Luca Paolini
A first stage showing that was very impressive in Tirreno, and then some very able bodied sprinting later in the race shows he's in some good form early on again this season. He's certainly got the legs to get over climbs, and the kick to cause problems to even the most capable pure sprinter. Look out for him.
Francesco Ginanni
For the second season running, he's kicked off his year with a good sprint win. If we're to believe PCM stats, he can climb too. It all just depends on whether he's working for himself, or for this man.
Michele Scarponi
Having missed out on the GC win at Tirreno, this must be one very determined or pissed off, Italian. Some serious form, and a very good poker face just doesnt let you know quite how hard he was trying at Tirreno, but you can be sure, he'll be up there watching the other puncheurs.
Allan Davis
So how many years has this man been plagued by bad team situations? Lined up for the Tour last year, but knocked back for a rubbish Boonen, this year he's found himself in a team thats dedicated to helping him, or so they say. If he's got the legs to get over the final climb, don't put this man out of your mind, he could quite easily sneak a surprise.
Thomas Voeckler
A man for the top 10 GC of Paris Nice until a puncture at an unfortunate time, the French eternal hope is showing good attacks this year already. A favourite with the fans for his ill-fated attacks, and his few successful ones that score big, could it be Voeckler's year to really make a big scene in Italy?
George Hincapie
Big George is a man you just can't knock. He was there last year at the end for Cavendish, and this year could well be there for himself. Having been a sprinter himself in years past, he knows it all. How to lead, and more importantly, when and where to attack when the sprinters won't want to follow. Could he do the next Cancellara-style win?
Jose Joaquin Rojas
The Spanish sprinter has shown a good kick or two so far, but nothing much to talk about. I wouldn't put it past him to be there in the finale should it be a sprinters year, but to win? I doubt it somewhat.
Thor Hushovd
The big Norwegian. Well, he was there last year, but like last year, he's showing all the same signs - an inability to open a sprint up. He seems quite happy to get into a position one or two riders too far up, then sit up with about 300m to go, before trying to sprint onto another sprinters wheel. Thor, it just doesn't work like that. Last year Haussler dropped him in a lead out, so even if he gets the best lead out, I wouldn't back Thor even if he was the only sprinter in the race. Sorry to say.
Sacha Modolo
Who? Well, you might well ask that, but having been keeping tabs on a few Italian races early on in the season, it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't surprise some by getting a top 20 finish in Remo. Sure, a top 20 isn't much, but then, not everyone can do a Cav eh?
Benoit Vaugrenard
Some very good races for Vaugrenard sees him return to the form he was in when he won the French National Time Trial Championship. Don't underestimate the French this year, or last! They're quickly getting back into the victory business, and it can't be long until one of them wins something big... right?!
Tyler Farrar
As much as I hate the ginger beard, it's got to be said, this American can sprint. He found his winning legs last year, and hasn't looked back since. Still yet to get equal on terms of quantity and quality of wins that guys like Bennati and Petacchi have had, but it's just a case of time. Both the Italians have had longer in the game. Maybe it's his year this year?
Giovanni Visconti
Not as good as PCM once told me, but still a solid rider. Worth having a team backing him entirely? I doubt it, but I'm sure he'll be willing to give it a try if he gets over his tumble in Tirreno.
Alessandro Petacchi
You can't put an old dog down, and that's definately the case for Ale-Jet. Again and again he gets over the climbs, and again and again he outsprints the young guns. Can he put in a good year this year?
Damiano Cunego
He didn't make my list at first glance, but he does occasionally take his pills and pull out a performance. Maybe he will for Remo?
Liquigas
Well, where to start with Liquigas? Bennati seems the obvious choice, and he needs no introduction. A stage win in Tirreno, coupled with a wear of the leaders jersey is good enough to prove his form, but just incase he gets a puncture at the wrong time, well there's Kreuziger, fresh from Paris-Nice, Vincenzo Nibali, fresh from Tirreno, Pellizotti, also from Tirreno, not to mention the more domestique-ee riders.
Philippe Gilbert
He provides the hill talent for Omega this year, and you'd expect him to be there at the end. Whether that's off the front, or in the pack. Either way, in with a shout.
Greg Van Avermaet
Having shown some of the best form of his life at the Vuelta in 2008, he disappointed me, personally, last year, not living quite up to what I expected to see. But this year he seems to have screwed his head back on. A top 20 GC at Tirreno is no easy feat for someone I'd call more sprinter than puncheur, and just goes to show he's got the climbing legs on this year.
The question remains, however, if he's got his sprinting ones into gear as well.
Tom Boonen
Provides the firepower for Quickstep time and time again. Proving me wrong big time for one of the Tirreno bets, he took a win against Bennati, showing me that he hasn't lost any of his sprinting ability.
Well, certainly not early season anyway. I can see him getting over the climbs well this year, and being right in the mix come the final km. Will he win? Well, I wouldn't back him, but then, I'm not going to put him down and out either...
Oscar Freire
Freire didn't show much in Tirreno, but then, you can't blame him - it was cold after all! He's shown time and time again he can sprint uphills just as well as the flat, so this man reckon's he's got a good chance.
Edvald Boasson Hagen
Well, can he climb? That's always a good topic for a chat, but in this case, yes. Milan shouldn't provide Hagen with difficulties come the climbs, but the sprint? Well it all depends just how many barriers there are to put people in to.
Filippo Pozzato
Pozzato is a strange one. He shows his form in ways that others don't. He can sprint - we've all seen proof of that, and he can climb - we've seen that too. But being a previous winner of Milan San Remo just seems to make him do odd things. He attacks, gets a gap, then sits up to wait to be caught, not quite conventional tactics, but hey, it doesn't matter when you're Italian National Champion, right? I'd definately rate Pozzato with a chance though, you just can never be sure when he's going to try though.
Katusha
And not just Pozzato could potentially light the fireworks. Kirchen, who seems to be a bit out of form at the moment, Ivanov, who's neither here nor there, plus a whole bunch of Italian and Russian mob riders. Well, I expect some aggression!
Fabian Cancellara
The outside bet. Showing some good legs today on the front of the pack, this absolute powerhouse can never, ever, be written out of it. I mean, sure, he was beaten in a time trial by Hagen in Oman, but, we all know who looks cooler!
In all seriousness, if Cancellara is in some form - which, to be honest, I think he's getting there with, he's a danger to all sprinters teams.
So there you have it. My run down on the favourites for Milan San Remo.
I, for one, can't wait for the race. Looks to be an exciting one whatever happens!
(Well, the last 50km do, the first 200+ may not be quite so thrilling!)
Good luck with the bets! |
