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Benelux Challenge - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 24-03-2024 16:45
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3174
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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This year marks the 10th anniversary edition of the Benelux Challenge. So far the race has had 9 different winners including a variety of rider types, last year it went to a strong TT all rounder in Stefan Kung. Kung is not back and neither are any of the other 8 winners so we will have a new winner this year.
The parcours is essentially unchanged from last year. A 6.2k prologue, two sprint stages (2 and 6), one hilly stage (3) and two cobbled stages (4 and 5). Although it isn’t quite that simple as stage 2 includes some cobbles and sharp climbs and both cobbled stages include a number of tough Flandrien bergs.
Last year Kung won the prologue and then hung on to the lead through the rest of the race. We will start with candidates to repeat that feat (at least the winning the prologue part).
| Rider | PR | TT | FL | CO | HI | RS |  Kopfauf | 81 | 65 | 69 | 52 | 67 | 74 |  Schomber | 81 | 74 | 73 | 50 | 58 | 76 |  Van Aert | 79 | 70 | 75 | 68 | 66 | 73 | | Erdenebat | 79 | 78 | 75 | 51 | 65 | 78 |  Golovash | 78 | 78 | 72 | 55 | 60 | 69 |  Sterbini | 78 | 78 | 68 | 63 | 66 | 73 |  Predatsch | 77 | 77 | 69 | 62 | 55 | 77 |  Frison | 77 | 77 | 71 | 54 | 67 | 71 |  Downey | 76 | 76 | 72 | 52 | 66 | 72 | | Gamper | 76 | 76 | 77 | 79 | 66 | 77 |  Fominykh | 76 | 77 | 74 | 54 | 67 | 71 | | Magnussen | 76 | 72 | 73 | 60 | 69 | 72 |
In terms of pure prologue skills stage 1 looks like a straight up battle between Kopfauf and Schomber. At 6k TT abilities could play a role which would bring Erdenebat in to play and maybe Van Aert.
Of the four only the latter looks to have the broader skillset to have a shot at repeating Kung’s feat and it is a big stretch for him. Really the only rider who seems like a threat to make a run on the overall based on a strong prologue is Gamper, who should have not trouble on the cobbles but will be under pressure on stage 3. One other solid prologue rider could be a threat for the overall - with a 75 PR, Schäppi just misses this list but he is also strong on the cobbles and decent in the hills.
The next GC stage is the hilly stage 3. Favorites for that stage could include:
| Rider | HI | SP | AC | FL | CO | RS | PR | | Kron | 79 | 66 | 73 | 73 | 64 | 75 | 65 |  Van Garderen | 78 | 66 | 73 | 69 | 63 | 69 | 65 |  Ackermann | 77 | 77 | 80 | 72 | 61 | 71 | 68 | | Pellaud | 77 | 65 | 70 | 70 | 55 | 68 | 66 | | Carr | 77 | 59 | 72 | 68 | 55 | 71 | 58 | | McCormick | 76 | 73 | 73 | 70 | 53 | 71 | 65 | | Orlov | 76 | 63 | 70 | 69 | 55 | 68 | 67 |  Tratnik | 76 | 60 | 69 | 70 | 61 | 74 | 61 | | Pidcock | 75 | 73 | 80 | 76 | 73 | 77 | 71 |  Gaday | 75 | 71 | 73 | 71 | 78 | 72 | 68 |  Hagen | 75 | 71 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 72 | 64 | | Budenieks | 75 | 69 | 74 | 69 | 70 | 75 | 61 | | Schoonbroodt | 75 | 68 | 72 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 63 |  Mosca | 75 | 65 | 75 | 71 | 60 | 75 | 68 | | Fedeli | 75 | 64 | 72 | 67 | 57 | 70 | 64 |  De Vos | 75 | 62 | 69 | 68 | 59 | 73 | 68 | | Goh | 75 | 61 | 66 | 68 | 61 | 72 | 68 |
Ackermann looks to be a the biggest threat to win the stage as one of the top hills riders on the start list as well as being by far the fastest finisher. Kron, Van Garderen and McCormick are other possibilities. Although last year this stage was won by the break so it cold be anyone.
In GC terms most of these riders don’t have the cobbles or prologue ability to be a GC threat but this list does include two big favorites. Pidcock has a great all-around skill set and this may be the perfect race for him. Gaday is almost as complete as Pidcock but concedes a little in the prologue and isn’t as strong at the finish. But he will hope his superior cobble skills will offset those disadvantages. Budenieks and Schoonbroodt are two more strong cobblers on this list but they could both be out of contention for the GC after the prologue.
The final GC challenges are the cobbled stages. Top riders on this terrain include:
| Rider | CO | SP | AC | FL | HI | RS | PR | | Spengler | 83 | 62 | 70 | 74 | 67 | 73 | 65 | | Zepuntke | 82 | 72 | 65 | 72 | 69 | 72 | 65 | | Summerhill | 81 | 68 | 70 | 76 | 71 | 69 | 57 |  Van Hooydonck | 81 | 61 | 72 | 73 | 71 | 74 | 72 |  Stallaert | 81 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 67 | 68 | 58 | | Daniel | 80 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 69 | 76 | 64 | | Gamper | 79 | 63 | 71 | 77 | 66 | 77 | 76 |  Blythe | 79 | 73 | 68 | 73 | 63 | 66 | 68 |  Zubov | 79 | 61 | 69 | 68 | 63 | 69 | 66 | | Gaday | 78 | 71 | 73 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 68 | | Van Keirsbulck | 78 | 70 | 68 | 72 | 71 | 73 | 51 |  Moulingui | 78 | 65 | 68 | 74 | 71 | 71 | 52 | | Jacobs | 78 | 67 | 67 | 76 | 69 | 76 | 60 | | Owen | 78 | 64 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 71 | 64 | | Ringheim | 78 | 73 | 75 | 72 | 67 | 71 | 66 |
This is the strongest cohort of the three and includes some of the top cobbles in the PCT peloton.
All the 80+ cobblers are solid if not spectacular on the climbs although a number of them will concede time in the prologue with only Van Hooydonck being solid in that discipline. Stallaert is the best finisher in the group while Summerhill and Van Hooydonck enjoy some advantage in the hills.
All of the 80+ cobblers except for Van Hooydonck, are weak in the prologue, if they lose too much ground on that stage they might struggle in the fight for position later on, particularly if they aren't strong finishers.
Gamper shouldn’t have a problem in the prologue, and he is almost as strong on the cobbles as the top guns. The only other rider on this list with a notable advantage is Gaday who is by far the best in the hills among the strong cobblers.
But reviewing the strongest in each terrain can create a misleading impression in this race which favors a balanced skill set. Riders with at least 70 CO and HI and 66 PRL include:
| Rider | CO | SP | AC | FL | HI | RS | PR | | Van Hooydonck | 81 | 61 | 72 | 73 | 71 | 74 | 72 | | Gaday | 78 | 71 | 73 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 68 | | De Buyst | 75 | 76 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 75 | 68 | | Pidcock | 73 | 73 | 80 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 71 | | Riesebeek | 73 | 69 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 75 | 71 | | Van Asbroeck | 73 | 79 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 71 | 73 | | Van Zyl | 71 | 62 | 66 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 73 | | Dunne | 70 | 62 | 69 | 66 | 74 | 72 | 69 | | Habimana | 70 | 66 | 71 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 66 |
Van Hooydonck, Gaday, and Pidcock have all been referenced previously.
Riesebeek is a proven commodity as the only member of last year’s GC top 5 to return. Van Asbroeck is a strong finisher who could pick up bonus seconds on the flat finishes but failed to survive in the hills last year. De Buyst is a good cobbler but only solid in the hills while Van Zyl and Dunne are the reverse.
Finally, there are two stages that shouldn’t impact the GC but should create joy for the sprinters. The top candidates to reap that joy on these stages are:
| Rider | SP | AC | FL | RS | | Afewerki | 79 | 80 | 73 | 70 | | Willwohl | 79 | 78 | 73 | 67 | | Van Asbroeck | 79 | 77 | 74 | 71 |  Bertilsson | 79 | 77 | 73 | 71 | | Stallaert | 79 | 76 | 77 | 68 | | Eislers | 79 | 73 | 76 | 73 | | Losch | 78 | 79 | 73 | 68 | | Rowe | 78 | 78 | 77 | 68 |  Merlier | 78 | 74 | 73 | 72 | | Ackermann | 77 | 80 | 72 | 71 | | Silva | 77 | 78 | 75 | 70 |
Afewerki is the strongest sprinter on paper. Willwohl and Bertilsson will hope to steal points for the CT teams while Van Asbroeck and Stallaert could be nursing GC hopes. If he can survive the hilly stage Rowe is also a GC threat.
Startlist
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 24-03-2024 17:06
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2855
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for a great preview. This race will make or break our season, we have a ton of strings to play on and we have never had a bad result in Benelux, life tends to find a way. Whether it's Rybakov finishing second in our debut season or Riesebeek with two podiums in a row.
Thanks for a great preview!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-03-2024 17:54
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World Champion
Posts: 14501
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 8500.00
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Weird race and we used all our luck here with Gaviria and especially Senni. I predict Gamper to get a horrible time gap on stage 3 so he doesn't even bother with the cobbles anymore. Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 24-03-2024 18:24
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2493
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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Another XP race. A point would be delightful
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 24-03-2024 21:13
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3280
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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It's all in on Zepuntke here for us and looking at the bib numbers the game seems to have some faith in our German cobbler. In the end we don't really dare to have GC expectations here, and any points scored are probably a plus. Stage wise hopefully Sterbini and Zepuntke with something, but we'll see what the AI thinks 
Thanks for the great preview, kb. Looking forward to the reports. Good luck to all!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 24-03-2024 21:34
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4548
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Had I known I would sign both defending champion (who's finally not defending his title) Küng plus Theuns, I'd obviously have picked this one. Now we're absent - which might not even be that bad, given that this race tends to have some really weird outcomes. Looking forward to watch it from the outside, though - thanks for the great preview!
I'll be cheering for Pidcock, because he's just a cool rider who can do a bit of everything and is a fast finisher. Or maybe Gaday for an upset win? Should be interesting anyway!
Edited by Fabianski on 26-03-2024 09:02
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 24-03-2024 21:51
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1044
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks for the thanks, but Ulrich deserves the praise as I've got nothing to do with this race
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 24-03-2024 22:43
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3280
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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kandesbunzler26 wrote:
Thanks for the thanks, but Ulrich deserves the praise as I've got nothing to do with this race
My bad, had just looked at a TdF report 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 25-03-2024 03:10
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World Champion
Posts: 11356
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Come on Pidcock, earn your absurd OVL and wage!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ezeefreak |
Posted on 25-03-2024 05:23
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Domestique
Posts: 535
Joined: 06-07-2009
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for thej preview and good luck to everyone.
To summarize for us, the field is too strong and we dont really have anyone suitable for the whole tour  But maybe Willi and our TT guys can set some highlight with good results, Other than that I am glad i can talk with Juri again to see how he's doing in Mexico ????
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| roturn |
Posted on 25-03-2024 08:39
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Team Manager
Posts: 22163
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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3x Cobbles are great as this is Van Hooydoncks best terrain, seeing him one of the better puncheurs and prologue riders then, he should be able to fight for the win.
The hill stage hopefully turns out to be ridden "slowly".
Gaday and in especially Pidcock are riders to watch out for though.
Thanks for the preview and looking forward to the reports. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 28-09-2024 22:31
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 25-03-2024 08:56
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1066
Joined: 26-04-2020
PCM$: 800.00
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Great memories from last year, winning here with Kung 
No participation for us now. I'm curious how the race will play out this year.
Thanks UU for the preveiw and good luck everybody!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 25-03-2024 12:04
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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I’m really hoping for a stage win here. We can’t really get high gc unless the gaps on the cobbles are non existent. But a stage win is absolutely possible and it is our goal!
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-03-2024 22:18
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7661
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Two spark riders on the podium is a really good result. Congrats there!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 25-03-2024 22:41
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World Champion
Posts: 11356
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Is Schomber too good to ride for a team with GC hopes? I think we may find out soon.
Me to my team (holding their new yellow jersey Schomber):
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-03-2024 23:09
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World Champion
Posts: 14501
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 8500.00
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Come on AI, you can do this!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 25-03-2024 23:44
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2855
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Milan in the white jersey really caps off a really solid prologue for us! Thanks for the report!
Schomber keeps proving why he's the goat.
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 26-03-2024 01:37
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Happy with 2nd and 3rd. Wanted that win though. That’s alright we move forward.
Congrats Jandal. Good win to beat my guys at the line!
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| Ezeefreak |
Posted on 26-03-2024 06:59
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Domestique
Posts: 535
Joined: 06-07-2009
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for the report and congrats to the ones on the podium for this stage.
Really decent result from us. Predatsch and Magnussen didnt disappoint and did what they were capable of. Also satisfied with how Heinrich did. Definitely one of the more satisfying results.
Lets see what they all can achive on th upcomming (not suited for us) stages.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 26-03-2024 07:20
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Team Manager
Posts: 6494
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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Always a weird race, this, so no expectations other than for Stallaert to at least do well on the cobbled stages. Can he compete in the GC? Chances are no, especially after that horrible prologue, but who knows. I'm also curious if Habimana can already compete for a Top 5 or so in the U25, but I doubt he'll be prioritized for us as a GC rider and rightfully so
Gaday and Pidcock are the favorites imo, but this might be the race where that matters least. Good luck everyone and thanks for the preview (and S1 report) UU!
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Benelux Challenge 
