Thanks to Cunego for the preview. I will add the startlist with bib numbers in the coming days. First stage should post overnight tomorrow.
The second Grand Tour of the year is here! Welcome to the 2023 Vuelta a Espana.
The Route
Spoiler
7
3
3
1
4
3
For an in-depth analysis of the route of this year's Vuelta a Espana, please check out jandal's excellent breakdown in the route reveal thread. But to summarize it briefly: We open with 4.4km prologue and add a 31km team time trial and a 46km individual time trial on the final day for a total of over 80 TT kilometers.
7 flat stages offer plenty opportunities for the sprinters to make their mark on the race, and while there are six hilly stages for breakaways and puncheurs, the route is somewhat light on mountain stages. Four mountain top finishes (though one of the hill top finishes is a borderline one, too) will decide the fate of the GC riders, alongside the time trials, and 3 of those (4 if you include the nominal hill stage) come in the final 7 days. It's a really versatile route that should enable a variety of riders to shine and sets the stage for some really fun racing that lies ahead of us.
GC Contenders
Silvio Herklotz
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
72
84
81
74
79
80
78
67
68
76
80
76
78
****
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Stork
75
71
74
73
76
Cemazar
74
72
72
73
74
Merhawi Kudus
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
85
77
72
79
77
79
53
64
70
70
67
72
***
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Otruba
75
74
69
69
71
Hosek
75
74
74
74
74
Lachlan Morton
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
70
84
76
73
79
78
78
54
57
67
68
68
73
*****
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Williams
78
74
72
76
76
Skaarseth
75
72
70
71
73
The Vuelta has the great fortune this year of a true three-way-battle for the overall win. While Herklotz is the default favorite in any race he enters, he can't take anything for granted here. Kudus and Morton will demand his absolute best if the German wants to join Rein Taaramäe and Andy Schleck as two time winners of the Vuelta.
Herklotz is of course expected to have the edge on the punchy stage finishes, and there are a few of them. But especially Kudus will certainly challenge him on longer climbs, and while Morton might be half a step below the other two in that regard, cycleYorkshire has the best team time trial squad of the three, and if he manages to slip into the red jersey early off the back of that, why wouldn't he be able to carry it all the way to Madrid?
The team time trial certainly had a big impact on the roster building of the teams. All of them invested a large portion of their squads to give themselves the best shots there, and as a result, mountain support is in short supply for all three leaders, with only Williams being even close to a true mountain work horse. They'll hope this won't come back to bite them.
Tim Wellens
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
72
82
75
72
79
80
76
62
63
68
64
70
72
****
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Rodriguez
77
75
71
74
74
Conci
77
74
76
75
78
Soler
76
71
76
74
76
Justo Tenorio
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
66
82
74
78
75
73
76
57
57
64
82
66
77
***
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Bartl
77
72
73
74
75
Figueiredo
76
73
77
75
77
Benito
75
70
72
71
73
Paulinho
74
79
68
70
72
Pierre Latour
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
81
75
70
80
78
80
52
65
74
80
73
74
*****
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Christakos
75
70
69
73
71
John Cena
00
00
00
00
00
Pavel Sivakov
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
81
72
76
79
77
82
58
66
69
66
74
75
****
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Rikunov
77
73
73
71
74
Mamykin
77
72
80
76
85
Arslanov
76
71
76
76
76
Rybalkin
75
73
78
77
81
Ki Ho Choi
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
71
81
74
75
77
76
79
63
59
68
68
71
74
**
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Carboni
78
76
73
73
73
Leemreize
76
74
69
73
72
Shirota
75
75
69
68
73
You will notice that there are no 4 star contenders. This is because outside of Giro-esque shenanigans, there really shouldn't be any way we don't see the Top 3 on the podium. And while the guys listed here will certainly try, more likely than not they will fight for the Top 5 more than the podium. That fight, though, could be very close.
Wellens is in pole position as the best pure climber, and he has good support both in the mountains and for the team time trial. Tenorio, who won the Vuelta no less than 10 years ago, might feel his age more and more, but he's still the best individual time trialist of all the main contenders, which will count for a decent amount this year, and Binance is doing their most to put a strong team around him.
As far as team support goes, Latour is living in the extreme. Polar is one of the two odds-on favorites for the team time trial (more on that further down), but in the mountains, he might be isolated early and often. If he can overcome that, he's the most likely among this group to challenge Wellens on long climbs.
Two very similar riders round out this tier. Sivakov and PCT representative Choi are both strong climbers, though maybe a bit below the others in this group. On the other hand, they're the only ones to come close to Tenorio's time trialing skills, which again should serve them well. The Russian in particular is known for the best recovery in the field, and Tinkoff should do well for him in the team time trial. That, in contrast, will be one of Choi's primary weaknesses, as Sony fields the worst TTT teams of any of the top contenders.
Caio Godoy
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
68
81
76
67
75
76
77
54
59
75
71
68
67
***
Nairo Quintana
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
67
81
73
70
76
75
75
51
50
65
72
60
70
***
Joao Almeida
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
80
71
73
76
78
78
53
63
71
67
71
73
***
Tao Geoghegan Hart
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
70
79
74
78
76
74
75
62
62
69
70
70
76
*****
Richard Carapaz
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
80
71
72
71
76
77
50
56
65
71
61
72
**
Bartosz Warchol
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
70
80
74
67
76
77
73
59
61
70
66
68
67
*
Davide Formolo
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
72
79
80
69
76
76
74
53
69
71
66
65
69
***
With a favorable course of events, some of the riders in this tier might well have a shot at competing with the contenders above. Godoy, for instance is on a similarly high level as a pure climber. But on this year's route, his poor time trialing might be too much to overcome for a Top 5 result. Quintana is a slightly more serviceable time trialist, but might well struggle on the punchier stages, which is also true for Almeida. The Portuguese has something else going for him, though: Unless he messes up royally, he should run away with the young riders classification.
For Geoghegan Hart, time trialing is easily his biggest asset, and it could be what propels him into higher spheres than his climbing might otherwise allow. Not only is he an excellent time trialist on his own, Cedevita also brings the best team time trial squad you might ever see and is the second major favorite for the TTT. Like Morton, he will have his eyes on an a stint in the red jersey, and who knows how far that can get him.
Good TTT results are highly unlikely for either Carapaz and Warchol. Gazelle in particular comes to Spain with only 6 riders, and while there are some really good mountain domestiques in there, anything but a distant last place in the TTT would be a surprise. Still, as climbers, both riders are strong enough to challenge for a Top 10 result. We're also now in the range of riders who're strong contenders for Week 3 breakaway appearances. This is certainly true for Formolo, who also is one of the best puncheurs in the race, potentially eyeing those stages as much as the GC.
Ivan Sosa
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
66
78
78
67
75
79
80
60
59
74
75
66
65
**
Georg Preidler
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
67
79
77
57
70
76
74
50
50
68
72
80
57
**
Magnus Cort Nielsen
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
72
78
74
72
76
75
74
60
54
71
65
64
72
**
Pascal Eenkhoorn
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
71
78
73
69
76
77
80
65
64
71
69
67
75
**
Michal Schlegel
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
69
79
77
65
71
74
76
55
64
75
73
66
64
**
Francesco Bongiorno
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
68
78
74
67
76
76
75
60
57
68
68
64
67
**
Jonas Vingegaard
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
TTT
67
78
70
71
76
77
77
60
61
66
68
69
71
**
Attacks on some of the big mountain stages later in the race, going for stage wins as well as some GC gains, will be the name of the game for these guys, too. While there are some decently well-rounded stage racers among them, the field is too strong for them to hope for anything more than a spot near the back of the Top 20 if they aren't aggressive - and I'm sure their managers will urge them to be just that.
Sprinters
Arnaud Demare
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
67
80
61
75
72
80
63
82
81
70
63
61
FL
SP
AC
FL
SP
AC
Kump
70
77
74
Iversen
74
62
64
Demare is the best sprinter of this Vuelta and it's not particularly close. Alongside his excellent puncheur skills, the goal has to be nothing less than multiple stage wins and the points classification - not too shabby for a wild card team. The French has a great chance to complete the career Grand Tour points classification trifecta here, and ironically, unless another sprinter steps up big time, his biggest rival might end up former longtime teammate Herklotz, who's always good for a few stage wins in the mountains and will be one of Demare's biggest rivals for the hilly stages. Also, while Tryg sends a decent leadout option with veteran Kump, a great sprint train this is not.
Danny Van Poppel
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
72
60
64
67
74
71
78
64
81
78
56
69
72
FL
SP
AC
Goldstein
75
66
67
John Cena
00
00
00
Asbjorn Kragh Andersen
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
77
54
64
65
70
74
78
53
81
77
60
61
75
FL
SP
AC
FL
SP
AC
Forssell
68
76
76
Krigbaum
76
65
64
Hsuan Ping Hsu
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
75
65
67
69
75
70
73
72
80
79
67
71
69
FL
SP
AC
FL
SP
AC
Darbinyan
72
76
74
Kasperkiewicz
76
59
67
Kaden Groves
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
75
61
72
65
75
73
80
66
80
79
64
67
71
FL
SP
AC
Drizners
70
71
76
John Cena
00
00
00
Gerben Thijssen
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
75
61
63
60
74
70
78
65
79
81
65
64
60
FL
SP
AC
FL
SP
AC
Thomas
73
74
79
Castrillo
77
70
73
While not on Demare's level, any one of these guys will have at least one stage win on their to-do list. All five of them have Grand Tour stage wins in their palmares already, but interestingly, none at the Vuelta yet. It seems likely that at least one or two will change that, but who will it be?
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
Hodeg
72
53
65
69
74
70
79
78
Harrison
72
62
67
73
70
76
78
81
Prasad
74
60
68
73
74
80
78
79
Peak
80
64
69
73
77
77
78
78
Stash
73
56
64
68
73
73
77
77
Bouglas
71
63
69
70
65
74
77
76
Larsen
77
60
68
74
73
78
77
76
There's only one previous Grand Tour stage winner in this group and it's Harrison, who includes two stage wins at the Vuelta 2020 among his achievements. But Hodeg has shown himself to be competitive at the highest level, and Prasad and Peak with his big motor could conceivably compete for a stage win, too. For the others, Top 10 or the occasional Top 5 finish might be all they can aspire to - but then again, we've seen weirder upsets before.
Stage Hunters
Puncheurs
MO
HI
AC
RS
FT
Time Trialists
FL
TT
PR
RC
Aranburu
77
79
71
79
62
Mullen
75
81
78
72
Paulinho
74
79
73
70
69
Durbridge
73
81
81
70
Storer
75
78
74
73
75
Lammertink
74
80
79
70
Van der Poel
70
77
77
77
77
Viennet
72
80
80
72
Climbers
MO
HI
AC
ST
FT
Howson
71
80
80
72
Mavrikakis
79
72
67
74
63
Cataford
74
79
79
73
Kirsch
79
74
67
75
62
Zakarin
74
79
79
75
Vosekalns
78
75
71
69
81
Oliveira
70
79
79
67
Nesset
78
73
69
77
60
Hayter
78
78
79
74
Van Poucke
77
77
75
69
76
Prologue
Roman
77
75
76
71
74
Andersen
81
70
83
78
Blums
77
77
70
71
73
Leung
73
78
82
77
Evans
77
72
67
70
67
Larsen
77
74
80
73
The aforementioned Herklotz, Demare and Formolo are the top favorites for hill stages, but a few riders led by Aranburu fancy their chances, too. Storer might be Amaysim's best chance at any decent result on non-flat stages, perhaps alongside Evans, who shows up on the list of the best climbers who aren't in service of one of the top contenders alongside veteran stage hunters such as Vosekalns and Nesset.
Meanwhile, with a prologue, a team time trial and a long individual time trial, it's no wonder that there's a plethora of strong time trialists here. Mullen and Durbridge can be considered the top favorites for the concluding time trial, perhaps alongside GC contenders Geoghegan Hart and Tenorio, who might be fresher after all those mountain stages. Andersen and Leung on the other hand have their eyes primarily on the prologue, hoping to wear red for a day or two.
Thank you for a great preview, cunego! Looking forward to see the race get rolling, UU
Top heavy GC battle, which will be very exciting to follow!
For our Vuelta, we are very clearly stage hunting. We really need Kragh to be at his very best in the prologue, to hopefully continue his streak and give us a flying start. After that, I do hope we get to see us aggressive in the mountains with Preidler, Van Poucke and Roman, and then there's Prasad as a wildcard for the sprint, maybe he can get lucky and grab a couple of good stage placings.
This is it, guys. It's Robert Gesink's final race. End of a MG era. For me at least.
As for the actual race, it was the profile that seemed to suit Formolo most out of the 3 Grand Tours, despite that TTT, where we will take quite a beating. But man, that list is stacked. It will be almost impossible for him to sneak into the top 10 in the GC, let alone repeat last year's result when he finished 5th.
The sprinters list on the other is not that impressive, if we ignore Demare. But given Van Poppel's abysmal Giro I should really lower my expectations.
We need a big race here and I don't think we are going to get it.
Seeing both 85mo guys with relatively weak climbing support in connection to the giro ending makes me wonder if we might be up for sth...
This is the weakest of our gt lineups with eenkhoorn and blums as top duo. That duo means that we need to be aggressive here and active in the breaks. Ideally right from the beginning.
Well, I'm a bit disappointed that so few teams sent strong TTT lineups, was hoping for some weaker PT squads in Lithuania
As mentioned in the preview, the top 3 should be set in stone. But I'm fully sharing knockout's concerns - there looks to be no team that could control the race in the mountains, so the breakaway party could be even "funnier" than in the Giro. Hoping for the top contenders they'll still have a successful race - on the other hand, when Herklotz is there, can there really be serious doubt?
And yeah, the fight Herklotz vs. Démare for the points jersey could be an interesting one
Thanks for the preview, good luck to all participants!
Big GT for us, though I guess they all are. We've sent Quintana as a GC guy, Aranburu as a stage hunter, and AKA as a sprinter.
We'll see how Quintana can do. His backups will hurt him, but our hope is that he can stay around the 10-15 place position. And hey, maybe he'll be one of the lucky few who then leapfrog into 3rd overall when the peloton decides to just gift it to him. We can only hope. At this point, there's no use worrying about anything else. I'm not convinced that the TT will be that big of a deal. The fact that it comes on the last day means it's probably more impactful on final placings, but it's not that many km's in the grand scheme.
The one with the most expectations is probably AKA. He's the 3rd or 4th best sprinter here, so we'll see how that plays with the AI. Not gonna complain about having Demare here because, to be honest, I'm not sure that will be a bad thing with the AI. I don't want us forming trains. Forssell is here for the XP, but if he's a leadout, there's a problem. A stage win or a bunch of podiums would be ideal, plus a top 3 in the points. But I'm ready to be disappointed there.
Aranburu is the wildcard here. Seeing that he's the best puncheur as a great hybrid is promising, though as noted in the preview, the GC guys are gonna take any hilly finishes, especially since Herklotz is a better puncheur than anyone technically. We'll be hoping for lots of attacking, and he has the engine to hold on if he gets a good break. Ceiling is a lesser version of Amezawa at the Giro, though the field here is way stronger.
Thank you for the tremendous preview. Selfishly I'm now hoping for surprises rather than more status quo, since my preferred GC GT was already ruined, but best of luck to everyone who sent their best.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Now that is a GT lineup. I'd love to see Demare doing well, I'm very surprised to see the big favorites sending almost no mountain support. With the number of great favorites, this time it could/would be realistic if we see a lot of breakaway success late in the race, eventhough Vuelta Routes are always less favorable to such.
Even if we win the TTT like we should I don't think we have a chance at the red shirt because Herklotz will already have a big gap from the previous hilly stage. I don't have any stage hunters apart from the TTs.
I have a feeling this is going to be an awful race, hopefully I'm wrong.
Excellent preview Cunego and thanks to UU, I know the reports will be high quality
Choi to win, Asia to rule again, and PCT GT wildcards to get banned forever? Now that would be a story!
Shame we couldn't bring Benoot or Vesely here because of clashes. The mountain strength is moderate, but Choi should be fine on his own in search of Top 10 spot, or maybe better!
Expectedly, tough duels ahead of us to deliver Silvio another GT.
Both Kudus and Demare were always going to be here once wildcards and the Giro startlist dropped, but we are ready for the fight.
Particularly our legend Demare trying to take bonus seconds, stage wins and the points classification away from Herklotz has a unique irony to it, but anything conceded to him will be happily conceded out of reverence for his career and contributions to our legacy.
Indeed, mountain support is few and far in between both in our team as well as over at Moser. An obvious decision looking at how GTs played out before the Giro happened, now it seems very risky.
I'm hopeful that gaps will be large enough by the point it starts to matter significantly, but it's apparent that the route doesn't necessarily lend itself to that with the first serious day being the (presumably queen) stage 11.
Speaking of lineups and the route, the first week should suit us perfectly and was a main reason in selecting this Grand Tour.
Both a prologue and the flurry of punchy stages are ideal for Herklotz, and we've long been focusing on TTTs within GTs to get that extra edge over the opposition without losing too much uphill support.
Clearly, both Moser and cycleYorkshire are also very adept at that same thing, so we're not going to benefit as much from it as we'd like, but any stage with "time trial" in its name where Silvio doesn't lose a bunch of time on his direct rivals is a good stage.
Our comparatively experienced core of Herklotz/Stork/Cavagna gets additional mountain help from veteran Brändle and talented Cemazar, while allrounder O'Brien will be vital to complement Cavagna for flat and hilly support. We round out the squad with Weinstein replacement Heidemann and our loanee Kmieliauskas from Zalgiris, who hopes to join riders such as Brunel and Bissegger as first-time GT participants supporting the eventual winner.
Overall, that makes for a very balanced TTT team with just 3 points between the best and worst rider, but a mountain train of only 75-74-73. Fingers crossed this strategy remains successful!
Thank you cunego for the brilliant preview, and thank you Ulrich for taking on this race!
Let's get this one on the road with a good prologue.
We have a really weak setup here on paper. Pretty similar to the Giro, but Carapaz instead of Giannoutsos. Something similar needs to happen to get away with something useful.
Mavrikakis once more here to chase a top 20, while Carapaz will see if something close to 10th is doable. For that to happen the 3rd week is crucial. We need him to play the cards exactly right. Unlike Giannoutsos he won’t be sitting around 10th when the fun begin though, as the first 2 weeks are really bad for him. So even more breakaway succes is needed.
Other than that it looks very similar. Ioannidis and Koretzky are better on paper than our breakaway guys here, but they didn’t show anything so that can’t really be worse.
The main attraction for us will be Bouglas. He seems to be a bit closer to a realistic top 10 in this field, so who knows if he Can just once hit a top 5, and get the points he lacks.
Besides that we will just have to sit back and enjoy the show. It will be an interesting matchup between two very similar GC riders. I do however still fancy Herklotz to be the strongest.
I’m looking forward to see how Morton is treated in a race with two this strong riders ahead.
That top 3 favourites field, and then you have Tenorio with a really deep squad supporting him behind them as well. This could be absolute fireworks thanks for an amazing preview!
Howson did as well as he could've among all the great prologue riders so I can't complain. Prologues are probably the only good thing in this PCM version. Herklotz is already in pole position to take red.
Thank you for the report, UU, some beautiful pictures as well.
That's the perfect start! Another superb delivery by Kragh. And this time, I didn't really think he would make it, seeing Leung was quite a bit ahead of everyone after posting his time, but luckily Kragh somehow found a way to win another prologue. As UU wrote early in the report, his prologues this season have been perfect, That is also his prologue season done for the year, let's hope the 100 % win ratio can continue next year
Kragh our only rider inside 30 seconds of his winning time is kind of funny, and definitely sets the tone for what's to come when we hit the hills and mountains. We should be attacking "everywhere", which is always kind of a risky strategy, and thus taking the prologue, is the perfect start to take the pressure off
Super hyped for this race. Going to be an absolute treat reading the reports every day
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Vuelta a Espana 
