Welcome to PCT's D-Day, welcome to Emilia-Romagna for the final race of the year! We're in Bologna, from where the race will depart tomorrow. The riders will stay in the hilly surroundings of the "Learned City", home to the world's oldest university (established in AD 1088).
The final climb up to the Santuario della Madonna di San Luca will decide on winning or failing, promoting or relegating - in short, on the fate of several teams! But before going into the details of this year's edition, let's take a look at the past winners:
Roll of Honour
Year
Winner
Team
2021
Tomohiro Kinoshita
Voyagin - Bird
2020
Oleksandr Prevar
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
2019
Eduard Alexander Beltran
Swisslion Cycling Team
2018
Jay McCarthy
Ayubowan!
2017
Domenik Klemme
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
2016
Damiano Cunego
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
2015
Wilco Kelderman
Team Puma - SAP
2014
Cesare Di Maggio
Venchi Ferranti
2013
Francesco Ginanni
Vespa-Aprilia Racing
2012
Nicolas Roche
Pirelli - Alfa Romeo
2011
Riccardo Ricco
Bacardi - Colt
2010
Damiano Cunego
La Gazzetta dello Sport
2009
Constantino Zaballa
LA/MSS/Pearl Jam
Damiano Cunego is the only two-times winner so far - but Beltran and McCarthy should have some decent chances of joining the Italian legend!
By the way, the race underwent a course adaptation in 2020, where the Apennines part in the first half of the race, including some hefty climbs, was replaced by a more puncheur-friendly version including much more shorter ascents. Whether or not this had an impact remains unclear - it was a race for the puncheurs before, and it still is!
But now, let's leave the past behind and instead look at those who are present here - with the top favorites (more or less randomly) split up into three tiers:
Tier I
Rider
Mo
Hi
Sta
Res
Rec
Spr
Acc
McCarthy
67
82
80
75
70
65
74
Beltran
79
81
73
72
72
66
76
Areruya
79
81
76
78
79
68
76
Jensen
70
80
77
73
71
66
76
Benoot
75
80
75
74
74
69
71
The two previous winners are in this list not just because of what they've achieved already, but also because they simply are among the strongest riders present. With both having a strong support cast as well.
McCarthy is the strongest pure puncheur in the field. Although he might suffer from repeated climbing, he has proven to be able to handle it when winning on the old course in 2018. Furthermore, Storer should be a great domestique in the early stages of the race. And given his stamina, he shouldn't run out of steam quickly. There's not much that could hold him back even his acceleration isn't far off the strongest riders in that domain.
Beltran will want to capitalize on his far superior climbing skills - and with Eriksson and Gaudu, he definitely does have the helpers needed to make this a hard race. On the other hand, he has to make sure it wouldn't backfire, given his relatively low physical skills compared to the Australian. On the upside, his fighting spirit is amazing, and his kick is among the best!
Areruya is a similar rider - but physically way stronger than the Columbian. If not for Beltran's past win, the Rwandan would deserve 2nd spot on this list - or maybe even first? It's going to be hard to leave him behind for sure! And with Stannard, he also does have a domestique who shouldn't be underestimated!
The next rider on this list is Jensen, who was picked due to his strong acceleration, compared to the similarly strong hill riders. His team furthermore brings another potential leader, which could make their strategy more unpredictable for the competition - we'll present him in an instant. The main pure helper should be Asgreen - who definitely isn't a slouch, either.
And the list is rounded out with Benoot, who has already shown this year that he can do very well in uphill finishes. Despite being the least explosive of the Tier I riders. Instead, his top speed is pretty good - and so are his mountain skills, that might help him outlast some punchier competitors in a tough race. The support cast is really strong as well with Raileanu and Velasco.
Tier II
Rider
Mo
Hi
Sta
Res
Rec
Spr
Acc
Hagen
66
81
75
68
66
69
73
Waeytens
71
80
72
70
68
66
73
Bystrom
68
79
75
72
67
68
76
Aranburu
77
79
70
79
74
68
71
Bilbao
67
79
77
71
71
71
75
De Plus
76
79
74
73
71
61
72
One might wonder why E. Hagen doesn't make the Tier I - there's a reason for this. His combination of relatively low mountain skills paired with low resistance - and a really bad 2022 season - suggests that he's rather unlikely to be among the strongest tomorrow. However, he's an experienced rider with a big palmarès - so we won't make the mistake of ruling him out altogether! And with Dyrnes, he's got a strong teammate by his side, who could also take on the captain role if needed.
Waeytens is pretty similar to Jensen who made the first list - and he does have a potential co-leader as well in Bystrom. However, his energy stats are among the lowest, and his acceleration can't make up for this, either. On the other hand, besides his already named teammate, he also has Calmejane and Senyenov by his side - true firepower which could be used in various scenarios.
Bystrom was already named, and unlike his Belgian teammate, he's got a pretty strong kick - he's however weaker in races where pure climbing skills matter more. Let's see if they do here - if not, he can be a very dangerous outsider!
Aranburu's teammate Jensen is in Tier I - but depending on how the race is ridden, the Spaniard could also take the leader role. He's extremely resistant, hence difficult to drop. Except by some really punchy attacks, maybe - and his rather low acceleration might also hold him back compared to his teammate. But they definitely are a strong duo, and it's always great to have two cards to play.
Two cards, you say? Bilbao is laughing, as he's got at least two teammates who could either support him or play the leader role - we'll meet them in Tier III. Furthermore, Dieteren, Scheit, Helme and Tatarinov are all decent to strong helpers - just a classic Kraftwerk lineup. The Spaniard himself is the team's strongest puncheur, and while he doesn't like mountains that much, he's got a good kick - and he's the (tied) fastest sprinter among the puncheurs. He's not among the top favorites - but you never know what the men in red with black ties are capable of...
Last but not least, we have De Plus in Tier II. He does have an advantage over the pure puncheurs if climbing skills matter, he's got a solid energy level - but his comparatively low acceleration might still hold him back. And so could the team support - or rather, the lack thereof. Fedeli should be an OK domestique, but the rest of the team might struggle to really help him late in the race. Although youngster Aleotti will surely want to make a good impression in front of his home crowd.
Tier III
Rider
Mo
Hi
Sta
Res
Rec
Spr
Acc
Betancourt
72
79
70
69
62
66
72
Chernetskiy
71
79
80
69
70
63
71
Gebrezgabihier
70
79
74
74
72
67
69
Boily
76
78
72
72
69
68
74
Moazemi
73
78
72
72
75
65
73
Errazkin
74
78
76
75
76
63
73
Hugentobler
68
78
70
69
68
56
76
Meurisse
74
77
74
74
74
71
78
Hirschi
75
77
77
77
75
66
73
Skjerping
70
77
71
67
68
58
65
Lots of names here - it could have been more, it could have been less. First on the list is Betancourt, who doesn't make Tier II mainly due to his low stamina and resistance. His acceleration is OK, but likely can't make up for his rather poor physical condition. And his support cast is - inexistent.
Chernetskiy is a similar type of rider, in terms of mountain and hill skills, as well as acceleration - and resistance. He's got a great stamina, but how does that help if you can't keep up your efforts for long enough? He does at least have some decent-ish domestiques in C. Hagen and Bardet, who might be able to close some gaps if their leader can't follow some accelerations - but his season record suggests that this might not be enough to do well, either.
Gebrezgabihier has a solid overall skillset, and also has some pretty strong helpers with him - most notably Seibeb and Ssabagwanya - but might be another rider held back by comparatively low acceleration. Maybe he can make up for this with his fighting spirit, though?
Then come Bilbao's potential co-leaders, Boily and Moazemi. The latter has shown in Tour of America that he knows how to win on a good day, whereas his Canadian teammate looks even stronger overall due to better mountain skills and a slightly stronger kick. Both aren't really top-notch puncheurs, but often it's the numbers that make Kraftwerk's success.
Errazkin looks a tad stronger still, due to his good energy stats. However, his low top speed might cost him some places in the end - and his team doesn't really have the choice of the leader, with Schönberger and Groselj being good domestiques, but probably not strong enough to stay with the big guns.
We then have another CT rider in Hugentobler - whose physical condition however might just not be enough to keep up until the end. His acceleration is definitely no issue, that would rather be his inexistent sprint skills - but the question is if he can indeed stay in contention long enough for his kick to matter. He can't really count on his teammates for this - on one hand there are only 5 of them, and on the other hand Pushpakumara isn't really strong, either.
Three more to go - and one rider we can't look past is Meurisse. He outperforms his pure hilly skills time and time again - and the reason why is obvious: he's just really fast! Among the 75+ puncheurs, he has the (shared) best acceleration, and is one of the fastest sprinters. Paired with solid climbing skills and energy stats, this makes him a dangerous outsider in many of his races. But will it be enough against the strongest pure puncheurs?
Swiss talent Hirschi could also be a dark horse here. Not the greatest puncheur, his physical condition is even stronger than Meurisse's, so he's really hard to shake off with a constantly high pace. However, his average acceleration means that he struggles to follow explosive moves - and he doesn't have the best top speed, either. His fighting spirit might make up for some of his flaws - and so might some strong team support by Pellaud, Bellis and David.
Last but not least, Skjerping will try to contribute some points to his team's survival. However, that's a big task, given his lack in pretty much every domain except pure hill riding skills. His energy level is rather low - and so is his acceleration, not to mention his sprinting top speed. De la Cruz will try to help him as well as he can - and maybe Kritskiy, who's the top climber in the race, can do something surprising? We'll find out!
Before we round off this preview with the startlist, let's lose a few words about what's most nerve-stretching heading into this final race - the situation around promotion and relegation spots:
Fighting for Promotion
Pos
Team
Points
1
Amaysim Cervelo
3940
2
Zara - Irizar
3390
3
Minions - Subwoolfer
3278
4
Cedevita
3149
5
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
3142
6
Binance
3054
7
Kraftwerk Man Machine
2964
The ranking update already stated that the promotion race should in all likeliness be over already. Binance aren't present here, and Kraftwerk would need a huge team result to catch either Cedevita or Carlsberg - who both have a rider in the Tier I list and are pretty likely to get some decent points, too.
However, 6th place might also be good enough to promote, given that we recently almost always had at least one PT team disbanding. Even that won't be an easiy job for the men in red - but it might be doable.
What looks more probable, though, is that Minions' 3rd place could be under attack, with both Cedevita and Carlsberg bringing far more firepower!
Fighting against relegation
Pos
Team
Points
18
Trans Looney Tunes
2245
19
Voyagin - Bird
2187
20
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
2091
21
Strava
2031
22
Volcanica - Fox
1973
23
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
1780
24
Project: Africa
1575
Just like at the top, the race most likely is over already. However, given that Voyagin aren't racing, there's still a slim chance for Gjensidige to reach safety. This would have been far more probably with Eiking leading the team instead of Skjerping, however...
Strava and Volcanica are both absent (with the former racing in Switzerland, though), and Crabbe would need an insane team result to close that big gap. We shall see...
And now, finally, the list of the riders who could make or break their team's season:
Can't believe we've reached the final race of the season. Neither Jensen nor Aranburu have ha particularly great years, but both have been good enough over the course of the season to keep us in the promotion places. Would be nice to get a big result to cap off the year in one of the few classics we sent both of them to. But as long as Kraftwerk doesn't catch us, I'll be satisfied. 4th or 5th isn't really a big deal to me.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
We haven't got much to root for here, I doubt that Eyob or Ndayisenga will achieve much. The only "positive" outcome for us here is a complete failure by Areruya and Benoot to miraculously keep us in the Top 10, but rooting against someone is never fun. So I'll just enjoy the ride, happy to read your report as always Fab, and thanks for the preview!
As mentioned in the preview I think that this is a bit too tough for Meurisse but he's suchs a wild card as a rider that I honestly never know what to expect from him. Personally hoping to see a Kinoshita win, just to squash any doubts about Voyagin relegating.
Hope the season won't end in disaster for us. We're in real danger of dropping to fifth if Cedevita and Carlsberg score decent. That would still be promotion but we'd like third over fifth obviously
Although bibs definitely don't mean everything (or anything), it's interesting to not see Beltran as nr. 1 of Cedevita. I hope he can end his Cedevita career on a high with a win for the men in orange. Also looking forward to the possible Benoot/Areruya battle for tenth. Thanks for the great preview, Fab.
whitejersey wrote:
Personally hoping to see a Kinoshita win, just to squash any doubts about Voyagin relegating.
Sorry to crush your hopes early on, but he won't. Voyagin are done with their season, just like Indosat, Zara, Binance, Assa and Volcanica. Whereas Strava and P4E are racing in Zurich only (with the latter having a Lombardia wildcard as well).
Getting to 8th would require a Stannard overperformance (and our team basically never has the second guy in the points this year, part of why we aren't promoting because we have no depth scoring) plus a big Meurisse failure which I will never hope for. But 9th has got to be the goal, really need a win to do that as otherwise it would need quite a weak De Plus race.
Basically trying to come up with ways that us and Philips both fit into the Top 10 okay?
cunego59 wrote:
The only "positive" outcome for us here is a complete failure by Areruya
Hope the Rwandan sports media run this quote and the people see how much the Bralirwa manager really cares about Rwandan cycling
Need a top 10 to complete our final goal of the season, doesn't seem like we have much else to ride for at this stage. So please, a top 10 is all I ask for
Benoot has had a great season so far. Hope he can finish it off well. Top 10 within reach and it'll be a major improvement from lasts season. Good support staff here as well, so no reason not to be able to justify that high placing on the favourites' list.
Really solid ride from Betancourt. It's not enough to get us the podium in CT but solid nonetheless after a disappointing season for the Colombian. Thanks for the report Fabi and congrats to Abhi with the win.
Safe to say this was a very bad race for us, luckily nothing was riding on it in terms of how our season was going to end. Thanks for a great year and thanks for a great report to close out the PCT season Fabi!
Giro dell'Emilia 
