Just like PT and CT, PCT isn't fully done with September racing yet - and with 3 they even have the most races pending. Still, for timing reasons, let's look at the current standings!
Period Ranking: September
Despite the 3 missing races, there are still 7 events to cover. Let's start with the lowest scoring race - the only C2 one in September, Tour of Middle East. Where Binance once again showed that they do have some (annoyingly, from a CT perspective) well-suited riders; most of all Antunes, finishing 5th in the GC. With 4 riders in the Top 25 plus 2nd in U25 (Wirtgen) and Teams, the Portuguese outfit scored 63 points. Indosat with some good Suryadi sprints and Top 20 GC results by Kolar and Arifin got 40 points, while HelloFresh even got a Top 10 with Potocki plus a Top 20 with Battistella, worth 30 points.
Let's move up to C1 then - where we had three classics! Kigali was another one for the cobblers (the last of the year without PT interference) - and it was time for another, maybe now definitely the last, show of Sam Bewley, leading Amaysim to another 83 points for their already impressive tally. Binance got three Top 10s, with Blythe, Bush and Noppe, scoring almost as much with 80 points. Strava is a team we rarely had among the Top 3 of a race, but Gaday's 2nd place was the base for their 66 points scoring.
On the other end of the month, we had a double-header for the puncheurs. GP Lugano was rather for the punchy sprinters - and it's not surprising to see Kraftwerk stepping up as we're approaching the end of the season. They didn't win, but Arndt and Bilbao taking 2nd and 3rd was worth 102 points. Given that the win went to CT, this was by far the highest PCT score, with HelloFresh getting exactly half of this with Hermans and Riesebeek in the Top 10. Just another point behind - with 50 points therefore - we have Xero, of 4th placed Houle.
The win in Torino did go to PCT - more precisely to Beltran - but without any depth scoring, Cedevita just got those 80 points for the win - less than Kraftwerk across the border. Runner-up Aranburu led Carlsberg to 67 points, while Eiking's Gjensidige just got the points for 3rd place plus one depth point, hence 47 points in total.
While we're at the classics, lets finish off the list with Paris - Tours. Which was another great race for Ahlstrand, being beaten just by the World Champion. Volcanica were rewarded with 127 points for this effort. Coutinho was 2nd best PCT sprinter, which alongside some depth points was worth 87 points for Assa Abloy. 3rd place goes to HelloFresh with 62 points, thanks to three Top 20 results by Kennaugh, Dzamastagic and Rowe.
Two more stage races (besides ToME) then. We'll start with Balkans and PTHC. We saw some great racing by Beltran, taking 5th place overall alongside two 3rd places on stages 1 and 3, plus 2nd in the points standings. But it wasn't great racing by the rest of the Cedevita team, and so their 175 points isn't the highest value in this race.
Instead, the winners are... the depth heros from Kraftwerk! Arndt and Boily took 8th and 9th in the GC, with the latter also winning stage 4 - 254 points for the Germans!
3rd and 4th then are just one point apart, with last stage winner Areruya's Xero edging out 3rd place overall Sicard's Strava.
The final race in this update is Bayern, one of those big races for the TTers who can climb a little (as the good climbers who can TT pretty well weren't good overall). A powerful attack on stage 3 and two solid yet not great TTs were enough for Cattaneo to win the race for Minions, who also had some decent depth points by Dennis and Brown in addition to the team standings. 256 points for the creatures in overalls - the highest PCT score of the month.
The highest scoring individual rider in this race wasn't the GC winner, however - it was Dunbar, who took 2nd and 3rd in the TTs, 2nd in the GC, and the green jersey. 189 points for him, 209 for Indosat.
Only 9 points further down are Binance, thanks to a big stage win by Rodrigues on day 3, leading to a rather unexpected 3rd place GC finish. He also took the KoM jersey, scoring 176 points on his own.
7 races - and a huge difference in points scoring from first to last. 482 points to be precise - if I tell you that the best scoring team got 485, that says a lot about the worst one as well.
On top, even without their now traditional Tour of America points haul, are Kraftwerk. And they're on top by far, with Binance trailing by 110 points already! Cedevita in 3rd place are just 12 points behind the Portuguese, just to put things in relation. On the other hand, Binance didn't need Balkans for their 2nd place...
Assa Abloy in 4th also had a good month so far, scoring more than 300 points as well. We then have 8 teams between 200 and 300 points, which I'd call the upper midfield. Notably, Minions in 5th scored their 296 points in just two races; Paris - Tours and Bayern.
The lower midfield then reaches from 13th to 21st, with the teams scoring between 100 and 200 points - including teams like Gjensidige, Philips and Voyagin who are still fighting against relegation. But also Lierse, whose promotion ambitions likely took another hit.
However, the month was even worse for Bralirwa, who didn't even score 100 points and are just 22nd! And no, they're in neither of the three remaining races, so they might even end up being the worst team in September!
So far, however, this title belongs to Crabbe, who only scored 3 points in Bayern (but didn't race elsewhere, to be fair). Sauber with 26 points from Paris - Tours and Kigali didn't have a good month so far, either - but both are yet to race in America twice (Battenkill and ToA).
Lots of text and numbers - hopefully this overview will help getting a clear idea of all this:
P-T
Kig
Bal
ToME
Bay
M-T
Lug
Total
1
Kraftwerk Man Machine
60
0
254
0
69
0
102
485
2
Binance
0
80
0
63
200
0
32
375
3
Cedevita
0
0
175
0
93
80
15
363
4
Assa Abloy
87
0
83
1
158
0
13
342
5
Minions - Subwoolfer
40
0
0
0
256
0
0
296
6
Indosat Ooredoo
2
0
0
40
209
38
0
289
7
Strava
18
66
152
0
0
6
39
281
8
HelloFresh - Lampre
62
47
74
30
0
9
51
273
9
Xero Racing
0
0
153
0
29
0
50
232
10
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
0
41
0
0
117
67
3
228
11
Volcanica - Fox
127
0
55
0
36
3
0
221
12
Amaysim Cervelo
13
83
0
0
78
38
0
212
13
Team Popo4Ever
42
0
37
0
98
10
0
187
14
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
50
0
114
0
0
12
0
176
15
Trans Looney Tunes
0
11
0
0
147
0
14
172
16
Zara - Irizar
2
0
0
0
164
0
0
166
17
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
0
0
71
0
37
47
0
155
18
Red Bull Zalgiris
0
0
62
4
82
0
0
148
19
Project: Africa
0
0
86
0
18
40
0
144
20
Philips - Force India
39
44
0
0
22
28
0
133
21
Voyagin - Bird
27
0
0
0
29
39
17
112
22
Bralirwa - Stevens
2
52
0
0
42
0
0
96
23
Sauber Petronas Racing
2
24
0
0
0
0
0
26
24
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
Full Ranking
As seen in the previous table, both Amaysim and Zara didn't have an outstanding month. While the division leaders probably won't care - they've even extended their lead to over 400 points - the Spaniards suddenly are getting a fight for 2nd, with Minions trailing them by just 24 points now!
These three teams are looking safe now, with Binance in 4th place almost 500 points down. However, the fight for 4th is really, really close now; Binance are 14 points ahead of Cedevita, and 15 points ahead of Carlsberg! However, only Cedevita is racing in ToA and could make a big leap towards promotion - they're currently projected to end up just 40-50 points behind the podium spots!
It's then also pretty close from 7th and HelloFresh all the way down to Kraftwerk in 10th - with 101 points separating the four teams (Bralirwa and Lierse are in the middle). Looking at the current projections, Carlsberg, Lierse, Binance and Kraftwerk would end up 5th to 8th in that order - with 31 points separating them, so basically all of them still are in contention for automatic promotion! And given Kraftwerk's traditional ToA run, it wouldn't be surprising to see them in pole position for 5th soon...
Indosat and Red Bull would need some big final races to make it to the Top 10, but they shouldn't be in relegation danger, either. Assa Abloy, Popo4Ever and Sauber are a bit behind, but they're all in ToA, with the two former already having won stage(s), so they could well be moving up.
The same is true for Xero, who are another 100 points down - but have the most packed season end of any team, with 41 RDs left! Promotion should be out of reach, but maybe a Top 10 could still be doable.
Trans and Voyagin having about the same amount of points as the Kiwis aren't in ToA - insteady, they might face another challenge: fight against relegation! In fact, if Philips and Gjensidige have some kind of a satisfying ToA (which is looking good at least for the former), they should move past both, potentially leaving Trans and Voyagin in 19th and 20th!
When speaking of relegation, that's already pretty much a given for Project: Africa, unless they pull off a major miracle. Crabbe still have ToA as a card up their sleeve, but it's a long way to go to safety - likely about 500 points.
Strava are looking slightly better points-wise, but they just have a dozen RDs left - the least amount among the backmarkers. Things are looking similarly bad for Volcanica, although they're a bit more likely to reach safety with a big final month.
According to projections, we then indeed hve Trans and Voyagin fighting for 19th and 20th, with the Japanese having one more race available, and hence are projected to be safe. Gjensidige and Philips - who have the exact same amount of points - currently occupy those 19th and 20th spots - and although they have the ToA card to play, they have to do a good job there to really be safe.
So, enough talking now, let's get to the plain numbers:
Jonas Ahlstrand still has a commanding lead, being almost 200 points ahead 2nd place. If Volcanica relegate, it's definitely not his fault - with his teammates combined scoring less points than he did alone!
2nd place, however, is a pretty big surprise, as we have Eddie Dunbar up there! Not even in the Top 20 OVL-wise, the Irishman is having an insane season, beating all "classic" stage racers and TTers!
When speaking of the former category, we have Mattia Cattaneo in 3rd and Sam Oomen in 4th, with the Dutchman trailing the final podium spot by 32 points.
With Kristoffer Halvorsen in 5th and Fabio Jakobsen in 8th, we have two more pure sprinters in the Top 10, while Joeri Stallaert and Sam Bewley represent the cobble-sprinters. Or the sprinting cobblers?
Joseph Areruya as the division's best puncheur has moved up to 6th place (from 12th), with Jack Haig in 7th making it only three stage racers, as Madrazo (6th to 11th) dropped out. Fabio Silvestre also lost his Top 10 spot, by the way.
Beltran made the most notable jump this month, improving from 62nd to 21st - which obviously is still way below his actual skills. In that respect, though, nobody gets even close to Quintana, who's the biggest joke of the division being down in 80th place...
But as we were talking about improvers rather than underperformers, let's mention Rodrigues (53rd to 26th) and Paillot (48th to 30th), or even Sicard (86th to 49th). Feel free to leave your comment about what you find remarkable!
Someone remind me what points are again, think we've scored about 150 in the last 3 updates combined. We've gone from promotion contention to looking over our shoulder at the relegation fight so we really need to step things up again.
Lennard Kamna is a a beast and don't you forget it. Did not expect him to be my top scorer this year. But maybe that says more about other guys underperforming. I don't know.
This is really gonna go down to the wire. Always worse to be outside the promotion spots this late, but a lot is still up in the air. Cedevita and Kraftwerk have really pushed late here. We don't have much left with any real comparative advantage against the rest of the division, so it's all about matching up against our rivals now. We'll see how the Tour of America plays into it. I think it's inflating the projections for a few teams right now, and hopefully that helps us. Generally it takes a domianting performance like Kraftwerk has had to make ToA worth it, and a few of the teams in the mix here don't have that kind of lineup. I'll keep reading those reports with baited breath.
Thanks for another update Fabianski. These are really hyping me up for the final stretch now.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Well we shouldn’t be able to not promote from here despite limited scoring opportunities for us in our final races. A decent race in Bayern to keep us 2nd but it’s very close with Minions and potentially Cedevita also!
Glad Dunbar is doing so well as he’s been pretty inconsistent historically.
Thank you for the update Fab! Still plenty of battles & stories to play out across the division which will be exciting to follow as the season comes to a close.
It's going to be hard to finish in the top 5. Projections looks great, but that's all about ToA where the points amount likely won't be that high and I'm pretty sure our competitors outclass us in the other remaining races, at least on paper
It seems I can't ever have a 'peaceful' end to the season
Thanks for another update Fabianski
Who has two thumbs and doesn't care about the rankings this guy
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
We haven't moved up from the last update, but that was to be expected with no race really being high scoring for us. The next update will be the most important for us with ToA being factored in. Hope we move away from relegation danger after that one. Looks like the promotion race is hotting up.
Afraid second place is not possible with zero scoring potential in the final races, but Cattaneo's wonder season will likely land us the podium. Excited to see the battle for the places behind us unfold
As multiple people have already pointed out, there is going to be a massive post ToA shuffle in these standings, and it is looking like we're primed for another year in PCT, which was the goal going into the season. Despite that I am still a little sad we didn't get to back to back since it looked possible for a relatively long while. Thanks for a great update Fabi!
Looks like even a special Madrazo performance in Morocco wouldn't bring us back to promotion contention, and instead we have to look downwards to make sure we secure the Top 10. Not how I envisioned the season, to be sure, but it was within the range of outcomes. The offseason will be super interesting for us, and really important in setting us up for the future.
Thanks for the update Fab! Some really tense battles going on all over.
We might be in relegation danger with only a couple races which scoring potential for us, which is wild and shows how badly some of our guys underperformed this year. Maybe I should think about #blessing myself instead of others
Another very good month for us, and nice to finally take a big step away from the relegation zone. Feel confident now that we will stay in the PCT and quite optimistic about next season considering the performances in the latter part of season while also getting back TdF maillot vert winner Dainese and Konychev from their loan spells with Aker
I can’t believe we’re 11th? Relegation zone fodder all season and somehow have managed to scrape our way possibly to safety. A long way to go with ToA and Morocco, can’t be sure til the last race is raced.
Dunbar in 2nd is insane. We took some huge risks with his planning and thankfully they paid off - even with the coupe of garbage races he had at the start of the season. He’ll be with us until retirement irrespective of division, what a man!
