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Tour of South Africa - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 12-02-2023 22:38
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Due to reporting kinks, the scheudule getting a little messed up here - Amissa Bongo will follow South Africa rather than preceed it.
 Tour of South Africa
The Tour of South Africa starts its second decade in 2022. The 11th edition once again features the unusual arrangement of 5 hilly stages and a flat team time trial (stage 4). The parcours is the same as last year and once again raced at the C1 level. With the exception of Stage 5 none of the stages look that hard on paper, so in addition to a strong TTT squad riders will need a decent punch and an ability finish fast. Vegard Stake Laengen won last year without really fitting that profile, although the next 3 were top puncheurs - Bobridge, Kelderman and Dyrnes, and the 2020 winner was one of the fastest puncheurs in the peloton in Bruno Borges.
Since a strong TTT squad is a must for the winner, a look at that situation first:
| Rdr Ct | Top 4 | Top 6 | All | | Cedevita | 7 | 76.3 | 75.0 | 73.7 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 8 | 76.0 | 74.7 | 72.5 | | Xero Racing | 8 | 75.0 | 73.8 | 72.5 | | Glanbia | 8 | 74.8 | 72.5 | 70.6 | | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | 8 | 76.3 | 73.8 | 70.6 | | Project: Africa | 8 | 75.3 | 73.3 | 70.1 | | Indosat Ooredoo | 8 | 74.3 | 72.5 | 69.6 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 8 | 72.3 | 70.5 | 68.4 | | Podium Ambition | 8 | 70.5 | 69.5 | 67.8 | | Red Bull Zalgiris | 8 | 73.3 | 70.7 | 67.4 | | Tryg - Gobik | 6 | 68.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 8 | 70.3 | 68.7 | 66.9 | | Voyagin - Bird | 7 | 69.5 | 67.5 | 66.7 | | Philips - Force India | 8 | 73.3 | 69.8 | 66.4 | | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | 8 | 71.3 | 69.3 | 66.3 | | Jura GIANTS | 8 | 68.3 | 67.7 | 66.0 | | Strava | 7 | 65.8 | 64.5 | 63.9 | | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | 7 | 67.5 | 65.3 | 63.7 | | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | 8 | 63.5 | 62.0 | 60.5 | | Eddie Stobart | 8 | 64.3 | 62.0 | 60.0 |
Cedevita bring the strongest squad across all 3 metrics with Carlsberg not far behind, although Cedevita rides with 7 which could impact them. Xero a little weaker at the top end but match Carlsberg overall.
The remaining teams are decidedly weaker across their full team. The CT teams faced a choice with the Tour of Vancouver also featuring a TTT. Glanbia and Oktal Pharma decided to bring some strength to Africa. Oktal has a top 4 to match Cedevita but the tail of their squad is much weaker while Glanbia are more consistent, they may have the strength in depth to split the squad.
Project Africa and Indosat are both similar in strength to the two CT teams. After that the squads get much weaker, although Phillips and Red Bull Zalgiris have a decent first 4. Jura have clearly sent their TTT squad to Canada.
If their TTT Squads can put them in position these are the riders who will look to contest overall race honors:
| Nat. | Name | FL | MO | HI | RS | SP | AC |  |  Kinoshita | 73 | 72 | 83 | 77 | 68 | 77 |  |  Benoot | 71 | 75 | 80 | 74 | 69 | 71 |  |  Borges | 70 | 70 | 80 | 73 | 71 | 81 |  |  Van Garderen | 71 | 70 | 80 | 72 | 68 | 76 |  |  Aranburu | 69 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 68 | 71 |  |  Moscon | 71 | 73 | 79 | 77 | 59 | 73 |  |  Bystrom | 72 | 68 | 79 | 72 | 68 | 76 | |  Van Niekerk | 69 | 75 | 78 | 75 | 63 | 74 | |  Errazkin | 71 | 74 | 78 | 75 | 63 | 73 |  |  Gaudu | 73 | 71 | 78 | 75 | 68 | 70 |  |  Meyer | 73 | 68 | 78 | 69 | 71 | 75 |  | Hugentobler | 70 | 68 | 78 | 69 | 56 | 76 |  | Raileanu | 66 | 77 | 77 | 73 | 59 | 70 |  |  Poljanski | 66 | 77 | 77 | 70 | 61 | 71 | | Hirschi | 71 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 66 | 73 |  | Grossschartner | 67 | 74 | 77 | 73 | 62 | 72 | |  Hoelgaard | 72 | 74 | 77 | 72 | 68 | 74 | |  Fabbro | 65 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 61 | 73 |  |  Habtemichael | 67 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 59 | 66 |
Kinoshita is the top name on paper, he is clearly the best in the hills, a solid finisher and probably strong enough on the longer climbs to survive all the climbing on Stage 5. But he will need to put some time into his rivals as his TTT squad isn’t great.
The good news for Vogaygin is the next 3 best puncheurs also all come from weaker TTT outfits. Borges has won here before and is the fastest finisher but couldn’t stay at the front last year. Benoot is strong on the longer climbs and has been on form all season, he also has one of the strongest support riders in Raileanu, who could also contest the GC. Van Garderen who sits 4th on this list is another former winner, he also has strong support, in his case from Hirschi. Next is Aranburu, a rider who evokes strong opinions, especially in his manager. He has the best TTT squad of the top contenders and is also the top climber, but he will need to create gaps on the race course as he isn’t the strongest in a sprint.
Mosconi is next on the list, he has pedigree in the race scoring stage wins in both the last two years. Perhaps he will feel his manager should have backed him by sending the TTT squad here. Although his performances so far this year may have eroded his case for that.
Top TTT outfit Cedevita have Gaudu as their leader. He is solid but not outstanding in any of the relevant skills. Eddie Stobart have two strong puncheurs but neither have great secondary skills and their TTT outfit will have left a big gap. Stage hunting might be the right call for them.
Xero with Habtemichael are emphasizing climbing ability. They are hoping strength on the long climbs comes more into play as the Eritrean is one of the strongest in that skill along with having a top TTT team behind him, but he may struggle to follow the attacks of the punchier riders. Fabbro has a similar skill set and is stronger at the finish, but lacks the TTT squad.
A few riders don’t make the top favorites list but could well have a role to play. Calmejane is the first one below the cut but should create a good one-two punch for Trans along with Bystrom. While Strava also have Dall'Oste to work with Poljanski.
There are also a number of other strong climbers who could have a role to play including  Ratiy, Kolar,  Rochas, Borisavljevic, Kämna, and Eg.
Xero also bring Houle who will be a favorite for the easier stages and could stay high in the GC if the race is ridden gently. Finally, Sauber brings Bellis, who is one of two riders to win this race twice (with Ulissi) and won the inaugural edition back in 2012. He doesn’t seem likely to get the third win but could animate the race one more time.
Startlist
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 12-02-2023 23:01
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Go Cedevita!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 12-02-2023 23:11
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Thanks for the preview!
As you wrote, our TTT lineup went to Vancouver, which may or may not pay off. Moscon took 7th and 6th here in the last two years - but the TTT support was stronger especially last year.
Given the relatively weak puncheur field compared to other PCT races, I hope Moscon will be in the mix in all hilly stages, i.e. get some clever positioning and not lose time due to missing out on "easy" splits. He'll obviously drop down the rankings after the TTT stage, but that might give him more freedom for the final two stages. Especially stage 5 should suit him, given his solid climbing skills and especially his resistance - although that seems to count nothing with the current game version.
Let's see if Aranburu can finally live up to his skillset - if he can, he might win this race due to Carlsberg's good TTT support.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 13-02-2023 01:19
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Definitely did not expect the lineup, especially to be so high on the TT list. We've always been a decent but unremarakable TT team. Obviously we have the leg up on the CT teams who have a TTT clash, but I didn't expect us to be so strong even compared to the other PCT teams. We went hard with all our TT guys, including Kamna, but it appears that many of our competitors did not do the same. So, we have a shot to really gain there. I do wonder how much that little hill is going to matter for team comp, but I think we're still solid.
Make or break for Aranburu then. This race may dictate his career trajectory. He's got a strong skillset to at least survive the tough stages and an edge over the better puncheurs against the clock. In previous editions I would definitely have been worried about him getting dropped in the TTT since he's by far the weakest link, but as far as I can tell, that's not really an issue in PCM 20. Hope that holds true.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich! Very excited for this one.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 13-02-2023 06:28
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Another important race for us. Benoot has been doing well this season and we hope that can continue. As usual, we will be giving some time away via the TTT, but we hope that's only a minor inconvenience and nothing more.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich 
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| MacC |
Posted on 13-02-2023 07:52
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Instantly regretting splitting my TTT for this!
Dunne, Craddock and McKenna here stage hunting. Thanks for the preview and good luck all
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| redordead |
Posted on 13-02-2023 08:36
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I'm very surprised I have the top TTT average here, although with the obvious caveat of having 7 riders instead of 8. The best I could've done is bring in 69 TT Katrasnik and that would've actually kept me having the best average, but I couldn't have known that 
There is a bit of climbing in the TTT and apart from Groselj everyone is a decent-good climber, so I'm hoping that makes a difference. I can't say I had a lot of expectations before the race. Seeing the startlist I can see Gaudu at least competing with the other puncheurs. Hopefully he can do it.
Thanks for the early preview Ulrich
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 13-02-2023 10:27
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Hills in Pct aren’t too hectic this year, but this startlist is still weaker than expected. Borges has been OK so far this season, he was also pretty decent supporting Dunbar in Norway recently. We really need him to land a podium here, a stage win wouldn’t go awry here either. Thanks for the preview
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 13-02-2023 15:36
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I was also pretty surprised by the line up here and join the CT guys in maybe regretting not putting our TTT resource here. And I didn't want to send Boswell without the TTT team so he went elsewhere as well.
So Kuss had better make good use of the boys in Vancouver or I am really going to be unhappy. Feel like a top 5 GC would have been achievable for Boswell in this field with a decent TTT set up behind him.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 14-02-2023 01:23
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That was a weird one. It looked like Aranburu had the perfect position and then an open line, but he just sat up and didn't start sprinting until after everyone else. Strange and disappointing, but I'd be a lot more mad if he lost time because of it. I'm happy he was positioned well and attentive until then. Also happy we seemed to have a good team presence in the first group.
Congrats to Voyagin on the 1-2!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| redordead |
Posted on 14-02-2023 06:52
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No time loss is probably as good as Gaudu can do here.
Congrats to Voyagin
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| MacC |
Posted on 14-02-2023 07:33
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Nice work from McKenna, wasn't expecting that. Cheyne was probably the wrong man for the break.
We need a couple of our guys to stay in contention until the TTT
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 14-02-2023 11:17
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Oh get fucked. Work all day to have the guy the stage is tailor made for not bother. Very close to being done with this game.
Thank you for the report UU
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 14-02-2023 12:47
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Not a fantastic result, but definitely not much to complain about, either. The positioning of our riders clearly wasn't top, which I hope isn't a foreshadowing of things to come, but at least they were in the mix (unlike Borges once again, commiserations to Eden). Moscon actually had a pretty good finish for his standards; I guess he'd have done even better had the final meters not been rather flat.
And I didn't really expect Aregger to be there on stage 1, I was rather targeting stages 2+3 with him. Good to see that he seems to have good legs; a podium finish or even a stage win would be great!
Congrats to Voyagin on that 1-2; iirc it isn't the first one this year with Kinoshita taking 2nd, or am I wrong?
Thanks for the report, UU!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 14-02-2023 15:13
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Is ok. Finally Errazkin didnt get drop om stage 1 and ruined the race from the beginning. Lets hope for some +5s now
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 14-02-2023 20:23
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Oh yeah we're in this one.
Happy to find I didn't even tried with the GC and went for an attacking team. First stage was good in that prospect, even though I'd have preferred with more men in the breaks, and with Rochas taking the KoM lead.
But the race's still long! Let's keep it going.
Thanks for the preview and the report! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-02-2023 03:15
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what the hell
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-02-2023 04:20
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Another solid stage I guess. Only Aranburu made the front group, but he was attentive still. You can definitely tell his lack of acceleration hurts him in these types of group finishes, btu I knew that before training him. He should really start sprinting earlier to take advantage of his resistance instead, but meh. Can't expect perfect energy management and strategy.
Tomorrow's the big day. It's a huge chance to get a super result, or botch it all over again. I really think a good TTT can set us up for a podium here, so time to get the job done.
Congrats to Indosat
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 15-02-2023 05:57
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Neither stage has been very favourable for Benoot, so him staying out of trouble and now up to 6th in for the GC is a good outcome for us so far. Raileanu has been really strong in support as well. Hopefully we can keep being consistent.
Congrats to the winners so far and thanks for the reports Ulrich
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| redordead |
Posted on 15-02-2023 06:39
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I guess there goes any hope of a depth result with that split. At least Gaudu made it.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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