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Baltic Chain Tour Discussion
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| redordead |
Posted on 07-12-2022 10:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Welcome to the now 10th edition of the Baltic Chain Tour. Not to be mistaken with the Balkans this race is more similar to TONE as it covers 5 countries in mostly the northern part of Europe.
For the most part, the race is shaped like any other sprinter stage race: four fairly straight-forward flat stages. Stage five features some hills, which could provide an opportunity for more punchy types, but previously this has gone to the sprinters as well.
The one unique feature is the prologue: It’s just 3 kilometers long, but almost half of that is covered in tough cobblestones. As such cobbles is definitely the main stat used here. It tends to be a battle between riders that are good on both cobbles and in the prologue, but pure cobble talent can triumph also. More importantly the sprinters who are above average in at least one of these can get an early advantage in the GC battle.
| CB | PR | | CB | PR | | CB | PR |  Rowe | 75 | 74 |  Breen | 78 | 68 |  Stash | 67 | 78 |  Edmondson | 74 | 74 | Daniel | 80 | 64 | Scully | 67 | 77 |  Sweeck | 76 | 71 |  Insausti | 77 | 66 |  Thomas | 64 | 79 |  Saber | 76 | 70 |  De Buyst | 75 | 68 |  Pedersen | 63 | 78 | | Walsleben | 74 | 70 | Zhupa | 77 | 65 | Reddish | 64 | 75 |  Räim | 71 | 74 | Naesen | 76 | 66 | Waersted | 60 | 76 | | Riesebeek | 73 | 71 | Thwaites | 76 | 61 | Boudat | 58 | 78 |
Just for interest's sake I decided to split the prologue favourites into three groups. Hybrid, cobblers and prologue specialists, although I do expect the winner to come from one of the first two groups type wise.
Rowe is the best at combining both stats, closely followed by Edmondson. Saber won the prologue last year proving his type has what it takes.
Breen has a decent prologue stat to go along with being a very good cobbler. On the other hand Daniel is clearly the best cobbler here and came here mostly for this stage. Is his 80 CB good enough?
The prologue specialists are less likely to succeed here, but the duo of Stash and Scully have a passable CB stat, while Thomas was 10th here last year. So not completely out of the realms of possibility.
| Sprinter | FL | RS | SP | AC | Lead out | FL | RS | SP | AC |  Ahlstrand | 74 | 73 | 83 | 82 | Marin | 74 | 73 | 78 | 78 | | Saber | 75 | 72 | 81 | 79 | Olei | 69 | 71 | 75 | 75 | | Enger | 73 | 73 | 81 | 78 | Pedersen | 76 | 76 | 77 | 77 |  Howard | 75 | 69 | 81 | 78 | Suryadi | 71 | 68 | 79 | 76 |  Eislers | 78 | 76 | 81 | 76 | Liepins | 73 | 68 | 78 | 79 |  Silvestre | 78 | 71 | 80 | 81 | Lauk | 74 | 69 | 72 | 72 | | Jakobsen | 74 | 73 | 80 | 80 | Hofstetter | 74 | 71 | 77 | 78 | | Haller | 72 | 71 | 80 | 79 | De Buyst | 73 | 75 | 76 | 76 | | Rowe | 78 | 70 | 79 | 80 | Thwaites | 73 | 70 | 78 | 76 |  Kanter | 75 | 73 | 79 | 80 | Nyoni | 67 | 69 | 70 | 68 | | Scully | 74 | 70 | 79 | 80 | Stash | 73 | 73 | 77 | 77 | | Kalaba | 74 | 72 | 79 | 79 | Kuboki | 72 | 72 | 76 | 75 | | Boudat | 73 | 74 | 79 | 78 | Merlier | 73 | 72 | 78 | 74 | | Bertilsson | 73 | 71 | 79 | 77 | Waersted | 73 | 78 | 78 | 79 |
Sprinting is still the main attraction of this race. Some have mostly come to chase stage results, some will be counting every bonus second for their GC placing. The top dog is very clearly Ahlstrand with a nice lead out rider in Marin. Saber is another who if needed will be hoping his lead out with Olei will work as well as it can. The Silvestre/Lauk dui are the only others I really fancy in lead out, but you never know with sprints.
| FL | RS | CB | SP | AC | PR | | Ahlstrand | 74 | 73 | 67 | 83 | 82 | 72 | | Saber | 75 | 72 | 76 | 81 | 79 | 70 | | Rowe | 78 | 70 | 75 | 79 | 80 | 74 | | Jakobsen | 74 | 73 | 73 | 80 | 80 | 69 | | Silvestre | 78 | 71 | 56 | 80 | 81 | 77 | | Scully | 74 | 70 | 67 | 79 | 80 | 77 | | Kanter | 75 | 73 | 70 | 79 | 80 | 68 | | Enger | 73 | 73 | 58 | 81 | 78 | 77 | | Kalaba | 74 | 72 | 57 | 79 | 79 | 78 | | Boudat | 73 | 74 | 58 | 79 | 78 | 78 | | Howard | 75 | 69 | 62 | 81 | 78 | 67 | | Haller | 72 | 71 | 58 | 80 | 79 | 71 |
This is mostly just a list of the best sprinters with those who have a chance of limiting their losses in the prologue. Ahlstrand though can really make up any deficit with a couple of stage wins. Saber likely would've won this race last year, if it wasn't for the GC bug allowing him to sprint in only 1/4 stages. Finishing 2nd two years in a row, he'll want to win this race in his last year at full strength. Rowe isn't near the top of the sprinting food chain so he really needs a good prologue. Jakobsen is last year's winner, while Silvestre is a proven commodity as a sprinter and should be one of the main favourites as well.
Full startlist:
Spoiler | Scully | Tom | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Naesen | Oliver | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Stash | Mamyr | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Skala | Jakub | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Gaze | Samuel | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Nolf | Frederik | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Reddish | Nick | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Archbold | Shane | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Habtom | Mikiel | Bianchi - Panerai | | Navardauskas | Ramunas | Bianchi - Panerai | | Bayer | Tobias | Bianchi - Panerai | | Colleoni | Kevin | Bianchi - Panerai | | Mulubrhan | Henok | Bianchi - Panerai | | Eggenberg | Ruben | Bianchi - Panerai | | Boudat | Thomas | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Barbier | Rudy | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Russo | Clement | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Merlier | Tim | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Edmondson | Alexander | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Nommela | Aksel | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Tesson | Jason | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Pajur | Markus | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Wackermann | Luca | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Sarreau | Marc | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Aberasturi | Jon | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Insausti | Jon Ander | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Puccioni | Dario | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Berthet | Clement | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Lazkano | Oier | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Brun | Nils | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Silvestre | Fabio | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Khederi | Souheil | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Lauk | Karl Patrick | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Mengoulas | Alex | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Menicucci | Samuele | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Debesay | Yacob | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Uhiriwe | Renus | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Saber | Lahcen | Colombini-Adler AP | | Olei | Federico | Colombini-Adler AP | | De Bondt | Dries | Colombini-Adler AP | | Quispe | Alain | Colombini-Adler AP | | Gonzales | Andre Alexander | Colombini-Adler AP | | Giulietti | Luigi | Colombini-Adler AP | | Aquilani | Andrea | Colombini-Adler AP | | Bonello | Daniel | Colombini-Adler AP | | Martino | Stan | Colombini-Adler AP | | Eislers | Ingus | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Liepins | Emils | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Drizners | Jarrad | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Van Tricht | Stan | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Kielich | Timo | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Bonneu | Kamiel | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Van Den Bossche | Fabio | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Pluto | Martins | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Enger | Sondre Holst | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Pedersen | Casper | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Daniel | Gregory | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Rojus | Adomaitis | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Kittel | Marcel | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Kurianov | Stepan | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Arensman | Thymen | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Christakos | Dimitrios | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Rowe | Luke | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Daniel | Maxime | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Dzamastagic | Mark | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Hermans | Quinten | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Thwaites | Scott | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Riesebeek | Oscar | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Kumara | Amith Udaya | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Battistella | Samuele | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Howard | Leigh | Indosat Ooredoo | | Suryadi | Bambang | Indosat Ooredoo | | Gani | Abdul | Indosat Ooredoo | | Setiawa | Andreas Odie Purnama | Indosat Ooredoo | | Arif Prayogo | Dealton Nur | Indosat Ooredoo | | Wolf | Justin | Indosat Ooredoo | | Yudha | Muhammad | Indosat Ooredoo | | Ahmad | Firdaus | Indosat Ooredoo | | Haller | Marco | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Ludvigsson | Tobias | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | De Buyst | Jasper | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Zhupa | Eugert | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Chaiyasombat | Thanakhan | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Walsleben | Max | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Mathis | Marco | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Vernon | Ethan | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Kalaba | Dusan | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Sweeck | Laurens | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Kuboki | Kazushige | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Marcos | Leandro | Minions - Subwoolfer | | De Witte | Mathias | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Tikhonin | Evgenii | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Rosas | Laureano | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Stöckli | Jan | Minions - Subwoolfer | | Reis | Rafael | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Smirnovs | Andris | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Beniusis | Justas | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Grossschartner | Felix | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Räim | Mihkel | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Evenepoel | Remco | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Consonni | Simone | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Li | Wen Hao | Red Bull Zalgiris | | Breen | Vegard | Tafjord Kraft | | Bertilsson | Christian | Tafjord Kraft | | Waersted | Syver | Tafjord Kraft | | Eislers | Sandis | Tafjord Kraft | | Haavardsholm | Ole | Tafjord Kraft | | Andersson | Emil | Tafjord Kraft | | Lindau | Philip | Tafjord Kraft | | Pruus | Peter | Tafjord Kraft | | Kanter | Max | Tryg - Gobik | | Omarsson | Ingvar | Tryg - Gobik | | Sleen | Torjus | Tryg - Gobik | | Bellan | Juraj | Tryg - Gobik | | Adria | Roger | Tryg - Gobik | | Iversen | Rasmus | Tryg - Gobik | | Nyoni | Similo | Tryg - Gobik | | Abolaji | Fatiu | Tryg - Gobik | | Ahlstrand | Jonas | Volcanica - Fox | | Marin | Gabriel | Volcanica - Fox | | Naud | Patrick | Volcanica - Fox | | Villalobos | Roman | Volcanica - Fox | | Zingle | Axel | Volcanica - Fox | | Bolor-Erdene | Enkhtaivan | Volcanica - Fox | | Jurado | Cristofer Robin | Volcanica - Fox | | Huertas | Jason | Volcanica - Fox | | Jakobsen | Fabio | Zara - Irizar | | Hofstetter | Hugo | Zara - Irizar | | Castrillo | Jaime | Zara - Irizar | | Thomas | Benjamin | Zara - Irizar | | Hesters | Jules | Zara - Irizar | | De La Cruz Chapulin | Luis Fernando | Zara - Irizar | | Miquel | Pau | Zara - Irizar | | Vandevelde | Yentl | Zara - Irizar |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 10:44
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 07-12-2022 10:31
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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Hoping for the cobbles to be little influential so Kalaba has an advantage. Will be surprised to see the team building a train for him so we can expect good results in the sprint 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 07-12-2022 10:37
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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I was considering coming here with Bonifazio, but he's no Gaviria or Van Asbroeck. Also he's been having a really bad season so far so good riddance!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| KaiserAdler |
Posted on 07-12-2022 11:24
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Domestique
Posts: 570
Joined: 13-07-2022
PCM$: 5800.00
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We definitely come here expecting glory with Saber. His performances this season already give me high hopes he will be able to perform. Even if he doesn’t succeed in winning the GC a top 3 seems likely to me which will provide the necessary points to keep up our promotion run. Saber has proven he has what it takes to beat better sprinters without a train, so maybe Olei can give him that extra edge to bring it home. Good luck to everyone, and especially to my team as we will need it.
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 07-12-2022 11:25
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1123
Joined: 26-04-2020
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Looking forward to this one. Don't know how the combo Liepins-Eislers will pan out
Thanks red for the preview!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 07-12-2022 11:45
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
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Expect nothing and yet still expect to be disappointed. Will be thoroughly whelmed if Howard can sneak into the top-50 GC, might be hard for him but we’ll see.
Hope Silvestre and Jakobsen can have a good race and cause an upset.
Thanks for the preview.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 07-12-2022 11:48
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Hoping for a good result from Luke Rowe as he has done well in this race in the past and on paper he's close to being the top favourite as well.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 07-12-2022 11:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 5896
Joined: 30-11-2006
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Finally some prober racing for us after a 1 race only month.
Let's gooooo! Good luck rrybody
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 08-12-2022 19:35
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Congrats to Jakobsen, best possible start for the defending champion!
However, that's one of the stages I'd love to see played with limited daily form impact - I just can't make any sense of the result. Jakobsen and Stash have some cobbles skills, but aren't good at prologues; Daniel is the top cobbler and slightly worse at prologues; Sweeck is a better cobbler and prologue rider as the Top 2; Stash is a pure prologue specialist without any cobbles skills - to me, the result looks even more random than usual prologue results. But yeah, I guess PCM doesn't really know either how to deal with such a stage 
Anyway, let the sprinter festival begin now - with Jakobsen in the pole position obviously!
And yeah, thanks for the report, red
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| KaiserAdler |
Posted on 08-12-2022 19:50
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Domestique
Posts: 570
Joined: 13-07-2022
PCM$: 5800.00
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Highs and lows here. Bonello doing a madness getting that result. Saber should've done better honestly. But lets hope he can make the difference in the sprinting instead.
Thanks for the report Red
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 08-12-2022 20:52
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
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Hard to really be too upset about this result with two riders in the top 5. Congrats to LLS on the win should just make it straight forward for Jakobsen to defend his win from last year. For us personally it is going to be interesting to see how the game treats our position with Daniel technically being the best ranked member of our team. Also funny to see Stash actually perform after we dropped him for this year.
Thanks for a very nicely laid out report that was easy to follow as well Red!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 08-12-2022 21:32
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Kalaba disappointing, but Sweeck steps up!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 08-12-2022 21:37
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Jakobsen the new Manninen?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| SotD |
Posted on 09-12-2022 07:21
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
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That was a strange result to say the least.
Maxime Daniel shouldn't be able to TT if his life depended on it. Jakobsen isn't particularly good either...
It sucks when results are this random.
EDIT: I could just look before posting. Didn't notice it was cobbled
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 09-12-2022 08:50
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Jakobsen is showing his form right away For us it all starts from the next stage, come on Ingus!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 09-12-2022 09:57
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Poor start by Silvestre, but he's by far the worst cobbler among the top sprinters, so that's somewhat expected. Looking forward to the next stages, I hope he can recover well!
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 09-12-2022 16:42
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
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Hopeful that De Buyst and Walsleben can maintain minor GC placings and Haller can sneak some bonus seconds to move him up to the top 20.
3rd in Teams is a good start, hope we can maintain or even improve that.
Thanks for the report red and sorry I missed the preview.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 09-12-2022 17:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
Joined: 12-06-2013
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Well, didn't expect that start.
What a great way to begin Jakobsen's efforts to go back-to-back 
Now to do the job in the sprints as well!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 09-12-2022 19:43
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Team Manager
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Umm ... yes, and the slow start continues for Silvestre He just can't seem to get the positioning right in the way he did so often last year.
Congrats on the win for Haller, and strong result for Boudat, too. Fab surely wishes he had shown those flashes in the last two years (unless I missed something).
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 09-12-2022 20:12
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Team Leader
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Best thing that could happen to Jakobsen tbh. Lose that Yellow Jersey and get back to contesting for the wins.
Congrats on some strong results for teams while others definitely looking for improvement.
Thank you for the reports so far!!
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Baltic Chain Tour
